Guest Post by Steven Goddard
According to the Catlin website, the team plans to leave the Arctic later this week. I believe that they have done a fantastic job educating the public about the Arctic. Their mission has been followed breathlessly by BBC and Guardian reporters, who previously believed that the Arctic had melted and become a place for sunbathing.
Following the daily reports of ice, cold, frostbite, hypothermia, pain and general misery being endured by the team – even the most daft newspaper reporter must be aware now that the Arctic is a very cold and icy place.
My hat is off to the Catlin team for providing an invaluable education to those of us enjoying the springtime at lower latitudes. Hopefully they will return home safely to their families, and produce a useful and unbiased report of their findings about the ice.
This education for the public on the enduring cold of the Arctic is not marred by the fact that they failed to deliver on many early promises, including reaching the North Pole. Maybe this is why the press is pretty much ignoring them now, with only 14 hits in a Google News search for “Catlin Arctic Ice Survey”.
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JR asked: “Also, when they stay in the same place like they have now for some 2+ weeks, where do they take their 75 measurements each day?”
Actually JR they take 75 measurements in the same hole. Remember this is:
“A pioneering scientific expedition to help determine the lifespan of the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover “.
They are measuring its demise on a minute by minute basis.
My Apologies Anthony re Ice data. However DMI ice data does not appear to be affected. BTW another silly sun “Model” paper just appeared which shows the sun has no effect on climate LOL. ScienceDaily http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511122425.htm
enduser (12:13:24) :
“Please forgive my asking, Adam, but what do you see on the SST chart that strikes you as odd or anomalous?”
If you look at the north pole on that graphic you will see some speckles of orange color there, which would only be there if there was open water that happened to be several degrees above normal.
So, let’s sum up:
The plan – 1,000 km in 100 days.
The latest from the Catlin web site – they may get picked up as early as Wednesday. That makes it 73 days; a mite short of 100 days.
Latest report on distance traveled is 421 km; again, a mite short of 1,000 km. If they’re camped out at a new landing site, they might not even make it to the halfway point.
But it will be touted as a great success, finding ice to be thinner than expected. And, because of the great suffering they endured, the media will lap it up and give it lavish coverage. Never mind that the ice extent is near the 20-year mean or that a recent aerial survey found the ice to be much thicker than expected.
Now folks are being polite and describing what will come out of this as ‘spin.’ Spare me the euphemisms; if it is not the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, it is a lie.
Catlen who?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
It’s worth mentioning that the four-hour drilling sessions that I am now doing with Martin’s help each evening are not the only part of the whole surveying exercise.
Basically, we are undertaking a continuous surveying process from when we wake up at around 5.30 in the morning until we pack up and have some food at 8.00 in the evening.
Digging and drilling could be destiny for “Pendrill”
In the morning after a cup of tea I defrost my outdoor clothes and go outside to start all the non-drilling measurements.
These consist of measuring snow temperature, surface snow depth, snow density and ice thickness.
Actually for the snow density, we get Ann to physically weigh specific volumes of snow. The variations can be surprising.
At around 8.00, after breakfast, which Ann will have been preparing along with the rest of the day’s rations, we then start off on our day’s travelling.
During this travelling time, we are constantly surveying features and making observations.
On average we will note about 150 observations per day. This is where my trusty pen and clipboard have come into their own – despite all the extremes these have soldiered on perfectly.
We tend to try to set up camp again at around 4pm which gives me four hours for the drilling measurements before dinner is ready.
The first type is on a fairly flat ice floe, from one side to the other, and the second type is an “all terrain” drilling – basically starting at the tent and heading due north, no matter what the terrain, be it thin ice, pressure ridges or rubble fields.
I measure 40m between each drilling, and I will be doing about 10 holes every evening, which takes roughly four hours (although I’ll probably take a tea break after a couple of hours!).
The drill is simple and robust – so should go on for ever. It’s shaped like an old fashioned car-cranking handle.
Tea breaks are important in the Arctic
I understand the design is based on a fish drill – although at only 10cm in diameter, you wouldn’t get a very big fish through this hole.
There are a series of six 80cm sections, know as “flights”, which can be added the deeper you go.
Each section has a special bolt system for attaching them together, because if you had a simple screw system, like a plumber’s rod, you’d never get it apart after it all froze together.
The extremely sharp drill blade section needs to be replaced after around 10 holes. The whole thing with all the bits together is 5.20m tall.
Ice surprises
As I drill though the ice, I get what looks like an ice cornflake mound on the surface, and usually I get to about 10cm-down before going through to water.
When I’m through, I push the drill further down to remove any ice crystals, and then as it’s pulled out through the hole, the sea water tends to shoot up.
I need to wait a bit for the water to settle before I can then get down to the measuring process.
How to measure ice thickness
The first measurement is easily done with a tape measure – the water that comes up the hole naturally settles at sea level (sea level is not below the ice), so I measure the distance between the surface of the ice and the top of the water.
This usually varies between 5cm and 20cm. I then need to measure the depth of where the hole meets water. This is where I have also been driven insane by the various measuring devices we were given, which are no doubt splendid, but don’t really work.
No matter – I have invented my own bomb-proof Heath-Robinson-style device that works a treat!
Essentially, I drop a metal bar vertically down the hole – when it gets to the bottom it naturally swings horizontal, at which point, I can take the measurement.
How to get it back up? Simple – there’s a second piece of string attached to the end of the bar, so I have to lower it, then let the first piece of string go. Then I pull on second string and, hey presto, it’s vertical and can be brought back up the hole.
Arctic woodpecker
After all the drilling, the kit has to be cleaned and packed up. And in order to get all of the frozen ice off the drill, I have to spend quite some time tapping and chipping away at it.
Martin and Ann say it sounds like a woodpecker – thus my new nickname in the evenings: the Arctic woodpecker.
In addition to the drilling, I also make manual notes about the thickness and type of snow around each hole.
In the mornings, before we leave, I also make observations on the ice layers, snow type, etc.
I just saw Anthony’s statement:
“REPLY: No and please stop with this line of thinking everyone. The satellite raw data server has an outage, and several dispensers of the ice extent info are affected, including NSIDC and ROOS. – Anthony”
Let me add that, while I think there may be some confirmation bias coloring their work, I still think they’re trying to do the best job they can. I also noted that the data from IARC-JAXA was also interrupted for three days. Last night the graph of ice extent was still at 7 May; this morning it jumped to 10 May. The satellite image they had showing for 8 May was really corrupted, with a broad blank void running from the pole to and through the Bering Strait. These things happen. Maybe by tomorrow NSIDC & ROOS will also be back in business. Hell, even SOHO has been somewhat slow in getting updated images of the two newest plage regions.
While on the topic of arctic adventure I picked up a March 1974 copy of National Geographic at my local Op Shop (second hand Store). This details an arctic trek along the Northwest Passage by another Englishman, Colin Irwin. Irwin left Repluse Bay in eastern Canada in Feb 10, 1973 and arrived at the other end, Point Barrow Alaska July 23, 1973. This 2500 mile journey was done using sled dogs with assistance from local Eskimo population. An eskimo guide “Napaseekadlak” went most of the way with Irwin. Some nice photographs accompany the article.
A few quotes: “There were times during my trek when I was so hungry that I ate rotten fish from a fox trap and the remains of a seal left by a polar bear.”
“Once we even used frozen caribou legs for tent pegs”
No high energy biscuits on this arctic soiree-puts the Caitlin Team to shame. I wonder what Mr Irwin is up to these days?
Steven, I think you have “packed it up” very well.
The Catlin Team, against their expectations, were confronted with an extremely healthy Arctic environment.
The warmist objective to show the media and the public all the drama of a melting sea ice exploded in their face.
The power of it all is that the conditions, the experiences, the cold, the suffering, the failing equipment, the slow progress and the pictures of the rough environment can’t be denied. They threw a boomerang to make their case but it returned and hit them full in the face.
I too have respect for the team that have showed character and determination.
Hopefully they have learned something about our weather, our climate and our Arctic. I really hope they will draw a line between the real world and the AGW hypocrisy.
This will proof to be difficult with a “bad” press that continues to ride to AGW bandwagon.
Nasa testing radar to measure ice:
Arctic Trek to ‘Break the Ice’ on New NASA Airborne Radars
April 30, 2009
PASADENA, Calif. – NASA will ‘break the ice’ on a pair of new airborne radars that can help monitor climate change when a team of scientists embarks this week on a two-month expedition to the vast, frigid terrain of Greenland and Iceland.
Scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., and Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, Calif., will depart Dryden Friday, May 1, on a modified NASA Gulfstream III aircraft. In a pod beneath the aircraft’s fuselage will be two JPL-developed radars that are flying test beds for evaluating tools and technologies for future space-based radars.
One of the radars, the L-band wavelength Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar, or UAVSAR, calibrates and supplements satellite data; the other is a proof-of-concept Ka-band wavelength radar called the Glacier and Land Ice Surface Topography Interferometer, or GLISTIN.
Both radars use pulses of microwave energy to produce images of Earth’s surface topography and the deformations in it. UAVSAR detects and measures the flow of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as subtle changes caused by earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides and other dynamic phenomena. GLISTIN will create high-resolution maps of ice surface topography, key to understanding the stresses that drive changes in glacial regions.
For further info:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=38434&src=eorss-nnews
Leon Brozyna (14:56:45) :
Let me add that, while I think there may be some confirmation bias coloring their work, I still think they’re trying to do the best job they can. I also noted that the data from IARC-JAXA was also interrupted for three days. Last night the graph of ice extent was still at 7 May; this morning it jumped to 10 May. The satellite image they had showing for 8 May was really corrupted, with a broad blank void running from the pole to and through the Bering Strait. These things happen. Maybe by tomorrow NSIDC & ROOS will also be back in business. Hell, even SOHO has been somewhat slow in getting updated images of the two newest plage regions.
Agreed. The the data flow has always had interruptions — some long enough to look like vacations. Note there are some significant gaps in past years here:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Remember, fake data always looks great. Real data has warts.
“So, 5 types of measurements for a total of 75 measurements… that comes down to 15 holes DRILLED BY HAND!!!”
.
.
.
Now we know how many holes it takes to fill the Albert Gore?
(with apologies to the Beatles)
75 measurements in 5 hours? 15 per hour. Obviously not all holes, perhaps “It’s COLD” (would that count as a measurement or an observation?) I rather doubt one could drill through 1-2 meters of ice in 4 minutes, but I really haven’t tried.
I have to give them credit for trying. I wouldn’t do that.
Hot Chocolate… How did they heat it – two sticks? or petro products
Do we know how many barrels of fuel were abandoned in the Arctic? How much fuel was used dumping it?
I really don’t like “funny” stories about people hurting themselves and our environment on cockamamie exploits like this.
RE: VG (14:40:36) :
**My Apologies Anthony re Ice data. However DMI ice data does not appear to be affected. BTW another silly sun “Model” paper just appeared which shows the sun has no effect on climate LOL. ScienceDaily http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511122425.htm**
Two words say it all – hypothesis and models.
I need to read no more of it.
Gerald Machnee (12:32:22) :
OK, I am breathless. However, I have regained enough to suggest another mission. After a couple of months rest with their families, they should be ready to Kayak to the north pole in the open water this summer.
————————————-
No actually Gerald, after the stunning success of this trip, it is essential that this intrepid crew heads off immediately to Antarctica to drill some holes in the ice there (for a few months). After all, it must be proven to be thinner there too, right? No time for rest. Think of the children.
Press fails to take up her role as watchdog. 78% in favor of AGW policies.
http://algorelied.com/?p=1623
“But it will be touted as a great success, finding ice to be thinner than expected. And, because of the great suffering they endured, the media will lap it up and give it lavish coverage. Never mind that the ice extent is near the 20-year mean or that a recent aerial survey found the ice to be much thicker than expected.”
Aren’t you getting ahead of yourself, Leon? They haven’t even been rescued yet, and there is some chance of that given this year’s exceptionally cold temperatures and thick ice. It’s not as if they’ll be able to be rescued by nuclear submarine given these conditions. If on the other hand they’d paid attention to the recent cooling trend they could have predicted that this would happen. It’s not as if the cooling trend from 1998 is hard to see.
The story of the Arctic is only a small part of the big picture.
We can do our utmost best to get the message of a cooling climate out into the world but what if only 24% of the US citizens know what Cap & Trade is about?
What do we have to do to get any message to the public?
Keeping it simple I guess.
From Rasmussen:
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/the-money-trail/3993-congress-pushes-cap-and-trade-but-just-24-know-what-it-is
Ron de Haan (15:03:48) :
Steven, I think you have “packed it up” very well.
The Catlin Team, against their expectations, were confronted with an extremely healthy Arctic environment.
The warmist objective to show the media and the public all the drama of a melting sea ice exploded in their face.
The power of it all is that the conditions, the experiences, the cold, the suffering, the failing equipment, the slow progress and the pictures of the rough environment can’t be denied. They threw a boomerang to make their case but it returned and hit them full in the face.
I too have respect for the team that have showed character and determination.
Hopefully they have learned something about our weather, our climate and our Arctic. I really hope they will draw a line between the real world and the AGW hypocrisy.
This will proof to be difficult with a “bad” press that continues to ride to AGW bandwagon.
I hope that they learn some Humility.
I notice that when the team are on “layovers” – not doing actual walking, that the ice drifts them up to 5 k’s a day.
So. How much of the actual distance covered was trekked and how much was drift?
That foto of the team struggling through Ice boulders leads me to think that 5ks a day trekking through this is very optimistic.
Extrapolating this. What real percentage of the ice was actually measured in a straight line?
An unbiased report? We can hope but, I’m not holding my breath! Have to agree, though, it takes a lot of pluck to keep trudging on even if there trip didn’t prove they could use their bathing suits!
From the other Ray- The nice thing about science is that even failed experiments return useful observations.
I agree. They also brought us the term anecdata, H/T CTM
It is funny when the climate protest in Washington DC was held during blizzard warnings. Ok, I giggled for a week. Hopefully these guys get out without too high of a toll on their bodies. While I want to see their mission fail, no one wants to see them come to harm.
You also might want to play nice.. After drilling all of those holes in the ice, he (Presumably Penn) is going to look like Lou Ferrigno, the original Incredible Hulk. Three holes an hour for five hours would be the ultimate upper body workout. Drilling holes in ice is very hard work.