The new cycle 24 solar forecast is hot off the press from noon today, published at 12:03 PM from the Space Weather Prediction Center. It looks like a peak of 90 spots/month in May of 2013 now. SWPC has dropped their “high forecast” and have gone only with the “low forecast” as you can see in the before and after graphs that I’ve overlaid below. Place your bets on whether that “low forecast” will be an overshooting forecast or not. It has been a lot of work getting this info out as the SWPC has had trouble with their web page today.
The quote of interest is:
A new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928 and its peak is still four years away, after a slow start last December, predicts an international panel of experts led by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
After over a year of hedging, it looks like NOAA’s SWPC is finally coming around to the reality of a lower than normal solar cycle. – Anthony
UPDATE2: Minutes later @12:15PM. Dammit, they changed the graphs back! Anybody have cache files? – Anthony
UPDATE3: @12:20 PM And now it’s back.
UPDATE4: @ 12:45PM There are some serious problems with the SWPC page, the sunspot graph content keeps changing and the 10.7 flux graph is just plain wrong. They also have no written press release. What a train wreck.
UPDATE5: @1:00PM I called Doug Biesecker, SWPC’s “media relations” director at both of his numbers, to ask what is going on. No answer. Left a request for a call-back.
UPDATE6: @1:40PM I heard from Doug Biesecker, he said they are having server issues, he and his webmaster were working to fix the problem. He also said the press conference was recorded and he would be sending an audio link. Look for it here soon.
UPDATE7: @2:10PM looks like SWPC has their web page fixed now. Thanks Doug.
UPDATE8: @2:18PM Found the NOAA SWPC press release (linked at spaceweather.com) and it is reprinted below the “read more” line. I also changed the title of this post to reflect the quote in the spaceweather.com feature story/PR from SWPC.
I was able to capture the new sunspot prediction graph, and combined it with the previous prediction as an overlay, which I have presented below:
Leif Svalgaard found this explanation:
If one digs a little deeper, there is some ‘explanation’
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/README3
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update
May 8, 2009 — The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.”
Leif writes:
The ‘90′ was not agreed upon. The only choices the panel members had in the last vote were ‘high’ or ‘low’. I pointed out that the value was important too and that just because 90 was the average number of the ‘low’ group two years does not mean that it a good number now. This was ignored.
This one paragraph below is all we have so far from SWPC web page:
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update released May 8, 2009
The charts on this page depict the progression of the Solar Cycle. The charts and tables are updated by the Space Weather Prediction Center monthly using the latest ISES predictions. Observed values are initially the preliminary values which are replaced with the final values as they become available.
Here is the “press release” as feature story from spaceweather.com
http://www.spaceweather.com/headlines/y2009/08may_noaaprediction.htm
May 8, 2009: A new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928 and its peak is still four years away, after a slow start last December, predicts an international panel of experts led by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Even so, Earth could get hit by a devastating solar storm at any time, with potential damages from the most severe level of storm exceeding $1 trillion. NASA funds the prediction panel.
Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the sun and may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A single strong blast of solar wind can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and other essential functions.
The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day, averaged over a month. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.
The most common measure of a solar cycle’s intensity is the number of sunspots—Earth-sized blotches on the sun marking areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that solar storms will occur, but a major storm can occur at any time.
“As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause expensive problems,” said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chairs the panel. “The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle similar to the one we are predicting.”
The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe, sent readings of Earth’s magnetic field soaring, and produced northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light.
A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and require four to ten years for recovery, compared to $80-125 billion that resulted from Hurricane Katrina.
The panel also predicted that the lowest sunspot number between
cycles—or solar minimum—occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24. If the December prediction holds up, at 12 years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum to minimum.
An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet sun since the last prediction has led the panel to a consensus that the next cycle will be “moderately weak.”
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation’s first alert of solar activity and its effects on Earth. The Center’s space weather experts issue outlooks for the next 11-year solar cycle and warn of storms occurring on the Sun that could impact Earth. SWPC is also the world warning agency for the International Space Environment Service, a consortium of 12 member nations.
As the world economy becomes more reliant on satellite-based communications and interlinked power grids, interest in solar activity has grown dramatically. In 2008 alone, SWPC acquired 1,700 new subscription customers for warnings, alerts, reports, and other products. Among the new customers are emergency managers, airlines, state transportation departments, oil companies, and nuclear power stations. SWPC’s customers reside in 150 countries.
“Our customer growth reflects today’s reality that all sectors of society are highly dependent on advanced, space-based technologies,” said SWPC director Tom Bogdan. “Today every hiccup from the sun aimed at Earth has potential consequences.”
Its all a bit of a storm in a teacup really. Lots of experts beating their chests on what the next cycle will bring, as it looks gloomier by the week. Revisions going on all over the place because they got it wrong basically. The new revisions from Hathaway, SWPC and Leif are probably still too high, this is because none are working off a theory that actually can predict anything long term. A theory that relies on a “crap shoot” principle which is also unable to be disproved because of randomness built in, will eventually come undone. I would hate to see the results if insurance companies wanted a prediction over a longer term.
All you need to predict the future solar activity is this graph:
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/jensm1.jpg
If there is anyone from the insurance industry reading feel free to contact me, there is a special discount to WUWT readers 🙂
“E.M.Smith (20:57:43) : correlation of sunspots”
Not that I want to sound like I’m stuck on a Piers Corbyn merry-go-round, but I did see him say that he also tried to use sunspots but they didn’t correlate well with weather on the earth. So he kept looking down other avenues from the sun. And apparently he has developed a formula that is more accurate than any other I’ve heard of. And again, I don’t, and wouldn’t, expect him to reveal it. If others want to find out what he does they are completely free to begin their own search. They can develop a method that is more accurate than his. They would have the same sun to work with that Piers Corbyn has had—unless they are in some quantum physics space parallel.
Let me see If I’ve got this right. The Sun is pretty quiet, but a quiet Sun sometimes means more solar events that might be catastrophic for our vital,but vulnerable infrastructure, Presumably, we should investing large sums to protect us from such an eventuality,[Is this even possible at this point?] but of course we don’t have the money because we have to buy lots of nonfunctional windmills and solar panels, bury millions of tons of CO2, invest in a bundle of Ponzi-grade carbon credits, which, of course, will cause our ability to make more money disappear. And we also have to provide health insurance, even to people who could well afford to purchase their own, especially if the government quit inflating the cost of health care like the price of a loaf of bread in Zimbabwe. Oops, I almost forgot we need to provide free college education to our 20 million permanent visitors from Mexico, ’cause after all they’re just looking for a better life. Then again, so are about 5 or 6 billion other people on the planet, so we probably should invite them too. If we promise to put them on the government’s nickel as soon as they get here, I’m sure they’d be glad to come. They say if you think everybody in the world is crazy except you, it’s a sure sign of mental illness. Maybe I should just check into the laughing academy for the duration, and hope that the Mayan’s were right.
E.M.Smith (21:50:49) :
[…]
10) Bloggers […]
To add to your list:
11) Racing pigeon fanciers [no kidding]. They don’t race their birds if the Kp geomagnetic index is above 4 [on a scale from 0 to 9]
12) Aircraft on polar routes don’t fly over the poles during strong solar storms [due to bad radio communications], but divert to a longer and more costly non-polar route
13) Pipeline operators, as solar activity-induced electrical currents in the pipes increase corrosion dramatically
14) GPS navigation becomes increasingly inaccurate as solar activity picks up.
and more…
Leif Svalgaard (22:48:17) :
E.M.Smith (21:50:49) :
“[…]
10) Bloggers […]”
To add to your list:
11) Racing pigeon fanciers [no kidding]. They don’t race their birds if the Kp geomagnetic index is above 4 [on a scale from 0 to 9]
I forgot to include a link:
http://calpigeon.homestead.com/
look for the Kp link in the list on the left.
“E.M.Smith (21:50:49) : …(The Old Farmers Almanac, for example) … but with TOFA being rather spooky in their accuracy months in advance.”
Bingo!
He shoots, he scores!
It’s hard to argue that the sun doesn’t do to the earth what some it say it doesn’t do to the earth when others use what the sun has been doing to the earth to predict what it is going to be doing to the earth and we then observe it doing it to the earth.
hareynolds (12:35:06) : IN ENGINEERING, we call this a SWAG. No offense to “science” intended.
In computer management we called it “iteration”. As in “This is the present iteration of the budget.”
In computer grunt circles we called it WAG (no S…) “Boss wants to know when I’ll be done. My WAG is 2 months.” (Which usually took 4+10%)
In my first “professional” job shoving product out the door for a chip maker we called it “quarter end” sometimes followed by a hushed “they can ship it back later for re-work…”
As much as I’d have hoped they would be above such things at NASA, they are just doing what every “grunt” in every industry does. It’s quarter end, you ship the product and you don’t make waves.
You’ve got a boss with a schedule to meet and you have a deliverable to check off the check list. So the spec has changed, OK, they can ship it back for replacement or rework. That’s not your department and it will be during another month (or quarter) anyway. For now you ship what’s in inventory and by next week the new SKU and new product will be in stock and the complaint department can ship them a replacement.
SOP for grunts in a commodity business like NASA … /sarcoff>
(And yes, I got in trouble for making waves about it. A good friend got fired for refusing to “pencil WIP” a batch of mil spec parts. Wore it as a badge of courage in subsequent job interviews. – WIP is “work in progress”. To “pencil WIP” was to have all the paperwork signed SAYING that all the right QA and inspections had been done even though the product had not actually gone through those steps. His bosses-boss wanted his bonus and “nobody making waves or missing shipments”. He refused to commit fraud… I only lasted 9 months in the job. Didn’t get fired, but didn’t pencil WIP; though I saw the writing on the wall and moved on…)
Science, wires, chips, what’s the difference…
“You want fries with that data?”…
Re: Hank (18:21:08)
Thank you for sharing this note Hank.
Frederick Michael (19:34:20) “The internet is, in a sense, the beginning of recorded history. It will set new standards of truth.”
….& new standards of mistruth.
Just Want Truth… (22:11:42) :
E.M.Smith (20:57:43) :
You have seen the video above in Just Want Truth… (19:20:46) : ?
Haven’t reached that time stamp yet. Still working through earlier stuff…
Bizzaro-World
– Jerry Seinfeld
If there’s one thing that the overwhelming majority of WUWT readers can agree on, I think it would likely be “Appeals to authority suck!”. Have we gotten anything *but* that from these so-called solar experts? How many times do they have to be wrong before somebody says “Show us your work and what factors you took into account in making this latest prediction!” If you’re going to speak ex-cathedra, you need to be right once in awhile, and you guys haven’t been lately!
Dont forget geologists. Some geologists have used sunspot/solar storm warnings to predict earthquakes.
Richard M (13:01:40) :
Gary Plyler (12:38:03) :
“In other words, are they afraid they will get sued if they predict 75, actual ends up being 120, and someone has a fried satellite?”
This was also my thought. I’ve been on committees that looked closely at things like this.
Given the quotes about changing product: My guess would be that there are some group / management approved standards for the “product” (such as min SSN based on prior experience) that WERE valid as QA limits (as in “Don’t ship milk if quart has less than 31 ounces” but instead “Min will be at least 50 at QA check 3 step”. ) but have been overrun by the exceptionally low solar output.
You can’t just go changing that kind of “signed off by everyone” standard. There may well be signed contracts with the consumers of the data saying that all reports “Will conform with quality control standard FOO”. You have to go back and get wavers or new contracts… or at least get a few levels of the management “food chain” above to sign off. You do it, but you can’t stop shipping for 6 months while you do it…
So you end up with a bit of “quarter end” “ship it” mentality. You ship something “good enough” NOW while you work the paper chain to get approval to do the right thing.
Sadly, that is how a large number of formal organizations work. I’ve even heard of snipers on the “new electronic battlefield” with target in sights waiting for the “OK” from the lawyer (back in the states on the other end of the the headset) checking all the current rules of engagement… the more decision making is rule based and centralized, the more you get this kind of hyper regulated irrationality.
Report quote:
>>It’s time for the sun to move into a
>>busier period for sunspots
I love this snippet. What they mean is it is the start of the next clcle (24) and the Sun will get more spotty.
Yes, chaps, that’s why it is called a Sunspot cycle. How many Phds do you need to predict that!!
.
>>>I think solar minimum is behind us,” says
>>>sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA
How much is Prof Hathaway getting paid to make wild guesses that are wrong on each and every occasion? Just what is the point of employing this guy?
>>All you need to predict the future solar activity
>>is this graph:
>> http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/jensm1.jpg
You will have to explain more, for I see no correlation. Why do some solar momentum peaks create Sunspot minimums, and others do not?
idlex (14:04:43) : OT, but scare-related,
I did a post about it (mostly for my kids and friends to get some decent information quickly). It’s at:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/27/swine-flue-will-not-end-well/
like: could it kill me?
yes. Early lethality was reported at 6% in Mexico. It’s now down at 2% (but this was after business came to a halt and we were talking about closing the border and they decided to call the epidemic off..). In the USA the early lethality was 1% but we don’t know what it is now.
And what are the symptoms?
Same as any flu in the early stages. More lung involvement in the later stages especially if you get in the cytokine storm lethality process. (Take lots of antioxidants to reduce the risk prior to illness) If you get a flu like disease, take tamiflu or relenza (antivirals that have been shown to work).
Is the epidemic over? Did anyone die? Outside of Mexico, that is.
It isn’t over and won’t be over for at least a year. Folks have died in other countries including the USA. It is likely to take a ‘summer break’ then return next ‘season’. Mexico as declared “never mind” and the US declared “it is just like any other flu” (both right after travel and business dried up… and countries started to talk about banning U.S. pork imports…)
It won’t be “over” until we’ve all had vaccinations that work against it (6 months to a year from now) or we’ve all been exposed (6 months to a year from now …) No immunity build up, then it isn’t over. It has alternate reservoir populations in pigs and birds. Migratory birds (like all flu).
Hello… Is there anybody there? Hello… CQD CQD .-.-.- 😉
IFF we’re very lucky, there will be partial immunity from the other H1 and N1 components of other variants (both in the older vaccines and in the population at large). While H1N1 matches the 1918 Spanish flu and nothing recent, we have had other H1Nx and HxN1 flu strains.
IFF we’re very lucky, there will be reasonable protection from the much better diet today (especially VitC and VitE and other antioxidants). This is not just some “touchy feely” vitamins are good thing. Antioxidants specifically soak up the excess oxygen free radicals released in a cytokine storm and damp it.)
IFF we’re very lucky, a new vaccine for H1N1 will be ‘cooked up’ and delivered over the summer and the virus will take a summer off.
If any of those things is not true, we’re right back at global pandemic Real Soon Now. Cases are continuing, but at a slower pace (IMHO, probably due to the initial PROPER response of semi-quarantine, closing public gathering, handing out masks, etc.)
There is also a small dismal point (but potentially good):
In the 1918 Spanish flu it is estimated that 5% or so of the total population died. It is possible that we, as a species, have not got a higher innate resistance to H1N1 flu lethality due to this selective pressure having removed the sensitive parts of the population. Something similar has demonstrably happened from the Black Death Plagues. (The gene maps of survivor populations show an increase in particular identified protective genes and the genes in burried victims show it lacking). We, too, evolve…
So don’t panic! but continue caution…
FWIW, I do find it interesting that solar significant minima tend to have associated pandemics… like the flu of 1918 (that stared a couple of years earlier and lasted a bit later) and the Black Death of the Dark Ages.
ralph ellis (00:07:53) :
“All you need to predict the future solar activity is this graph:
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/jensm1.jpg”
You will have to explain more, for I see no correlation. Why do some solar momentum peaks create Sunspot minimums, and others do not?
As Yogi Berra said: “if I hadn’t believed it, I wouldn’t have seen it”.
Same thing here.
hareynolds (15:30:56) : Apparently unbeknownst to the technical dim-wits now in charge, if you over-tax a resource that is global in scope, it will not politely disappear to make way for Magic Obama Alternatives, IT WILL MOVE OVERSEAS to places where politicians can still prefom a basic cost-benefit analysis.
One of the latest is Transocean (ticker: RIG) the largest offshore drilling company in the world, which has recently moved it’s HQ and place of incorporation to Zug, Switzerland. Gradually, they are moving rigs out of the GOM to places like pristine Norway (still drilling up a storm) and offshore the lovely thinly clad beaches of Brazil and Mexico. Sayonara, boys & girls. Good luck with that WIND thing.
“See how they distance themselves, Kohai?” …
BTW, if you need anybody to do tech / manager stuff in Brazil, give a holler! My neighbor is headed to the middle of Latin America (closed on land buy!) and now I have Tropical Paradise Envy 😉 along with a standing invite to move on down… My money is already moved (it takes all of 5 minutes and a couple of mouse clicks these days…) and I’m invested in Latin / OOTUS* oils … Love what Petrobras PBR is doing off the coast… And Saudi is reputed to be leasing a lot of rigs to explore some of the smaller fields that ought to be around their monster field (though probably not from Transocean, being shallow water and land ).
Given that folks have started finding oil in depths greater than prior theory allowed, there’s a whole lot of new depths to drill in old places.
Drill baby drill 😉
*OOTUS Out Of The US. It’s now an important enough part of my trading strategies that I’ve got an acronym for it! When possible, I’m long OOTUS!
Must be time for bed… typo rate too high.
In the 1918 Spanish flu it is estimated that 5% or so of the total population died. It is possible that we, as a species, have
notgot a higher innate resistance to H1N1 flu lethality due to this selective pressure having removed the sensitive parts of the population.That ought to be: HAVE GOT HIGHER INNATE RESISTANCE
Leif,
Thanks a lot for the excellent link to your paper.
I read it completely.
Many excellent points that I had not realised earlier.
Lets have some fun, lets set up a lottery like the Nenana ice classic. Everyone can put 2 Dollars on the time and peak of SC 24 and the winner takes ist all.
The debate is interresting now as it is, but the lottery would add a bit fun to it?!
Regards to all of you guys, Freddie, Davos, Switzerland
Sorry, I forgot:
Mr. Svalgaard, Mr. Mc Intyre and Mr. Watts would have to be the Jury to decide the time and peak and the winner!
Re Fred
E.M.Smith (00:37:28) :
This is one of the few posts you have put up I tend to disagree with, on most points.
Take the lethality from Mexico. To know that number you have to know the number infected. Do you really believe numbers coming out of Mexico on the numbers infected?
Judging by the low mortality in the US and all the other places, where it has been found because people are looking for it, one should correct upwards the total infections in Mexico appreciably, imo.
Doctors are not in a conspiracy theory, but they tend to be people who see the world through the glasses of diseases. I have a very good friend who is a great doctor specializing in detecting melanoma. That is what she sees all around 🙂 and takes part in large information crusades to the general public. Now that she is getting older, she is mellowing a bit. She used to grab me every summer, when my plethora of “beauty marks” would shine on the beach and carefully check me :).
I agree on the good natural diet the ” a measure for everything”, nothing in excess school, and am an adherent of vitamin C mega doses if necessary to stop the sniffles. Alternative methods are fine by me, since I believe 🙂 it is the belief system that works the healing more than the specific medicine. Unfortunately as a society we have delegated the common sense of our health to experts and their consensus, and you see where it leads in climate :).
I agree with “no panic”. As for every flu that can turn into pneumonia, one has to be alert to the symptoms of pneumonia, difficulty in breathing paramount.
I wonder if the joke goingon e-mails has not reached you.:
“In the US there was a saying that a black person would be elected president when pigs would fly.
And lo and behold, pigs’ flu.”
That disturbed area we’ve been anticipating has finally shown itself — no spot, just another plage. Perhaps the disturbed area that follows it will be more productive. Then again, maybe cycle 24 will be known as the plage cycle.