Our Current Minimum is More Maunder than Dalton

Guest Post by David Archibald

This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:

Maunder-Dalton1

What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima.  The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one.  If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar.  This is how they look without the Dalton:

Maunder-Dalton2

If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.

David Archibald

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235 thoughts on “Our Current Minimum is More Maunder than Dalton

  1. Whatever the outcome, I hope “Science” gets its act together and
    never allows the statement “The debate is over!” to be heard ever again.

  2. No kidding… this was in the Google Ads from this post:
    “Is Doomsday Sooner Than
    We Think? Find Out What Nostradamus Says About The Years 2009 – 2012.
    http://www.NostradamusOnline.com
    If we are at the start of a Maunder Minimum, it’s gonna be hard for many generations to come.
    Hmmm, how will Gore spin this one in order to keep fooling the people to still pay for this… because he will make sure that we can still feel the guilt of what nature decides to do next.

  3. This current solar minimum may give a chance for Henrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Institute to test his theories regarding the effect of galactic cosmic rays on cloud formation as playing a role in climatology.
    He postulates that, in this case, a decrease in solar activity would also reduce the solar wind would also lead to a decrease in the interplanetary magnetic field which acts as a shield for galactic cosmic rays. The decreased magnetic field would allow more galactic cosmic rays to enter the Earth’s atmosphere and induce more cloud formation due to the production of ions which act as nuclei for cloud formation. An increase in cloud formation would lead to a cooling cycle.
    Svensmark’s current work is here:
    http://www.space.dtu.dk/English/Service/Phonebook.aspx?lg=showcommon&id=38287&type=publications
    While his work is not broadly accepted, it is an interesting theory nevertheless. His book, “The Chilling Stars”, is interesting reading.

  4. My first prediction came true 🙂 The first region is indeed a plague, although it wasn’t difficult since it did look less active than the other region in the behind images! Now we will see what the next region brings, a few spots perhaps..
    Neil O’Rourke:
    What do you mean by “corrected”? Are these “corrected” numbers viewed as correct by other solar physicists? Just curious.
    These graphs are indeed pretty but I doubt that the weaker activity of the sun post 2006 is similar to the Maunder…

  5. Neil O’Rourke (22:44:08) :
    The data is from NOAA: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/AMERICAN_NUMBERS/MONTHLY
    Dr Svalgaard exists in a parallel universe of data series he has created to support his notion that the Sun does not vary enough to change climate. He can’t fiddle with the Be10 data though. We can’t go back to the 19th century and rerecord the aa data, but we can go back to the Greenland ice sheet and get the same ice core data over and over again.
    Mike Lorrey (22:48:01) : No data for the Oort. The observations for most of the 17th century were pretty good, and more consistant that parts of the early 19th century.
    There a few signs that this minimum is special. The sunspot data suggests that it could be Maunder-type special.

  6. Better yet, chart it against the so-called ‘Damon Minimum’ of the late 19th/early 20th centuries.

  7. How comparable are the three datasets ?
    Were the technical means during dalton and maunder minima that accurate that they could deliver data that can compared with the actual data ?

  8. >>Is your graph based upon published numbers
    >>or Leif’s corrected numbers?
    I wouldn’t put much stock in Leif’s corrected numbers – he was arguing on the basis that “the data does not agree with my theory, so the data must be wrong.” Thus, the Maunder minimum disappeared in a puff of logic, in much the same way that Douglas Adam’s Babel-fish made god disappear in a similar puff of logic.
    Now I know that Einstein was supposed to have said, “if the facts don’t fit the theory, change the facts”, but the facts still are the facts. The Maunder minimum was cold, and many distinguished astronomers of that era could not see any spots. Spot-counting is not rocket science, after all. Its not something that is going to be wildly affected by observational technique and there were many different teams doing the observing – so even if the Vienna team were a bit off (as Leif argues), the Greenwich team would not have been affected by any presumed Austrian incompetence. So why did the Greenwich observer’s data mimick that of the Vienna team? Answer – there were very few spots and the data is correct.
    The revised Sunspot number theory for the Maunder and Dalton minimums just does not stack up.
    .
    P.S. We had a big discussion about this on another thread, but I cannot find it any more. I did a search for ‘Einstein’ and ‘Greenwich’ and it did not find the other thread.
    .

  9. After further examination, my uncle (who is also a meteorologist) and I came to a similar conclusion… rather than simply competing with the Dalton, this minimum may actually be on course to crush it. Also, other interesting research points to a potential Maunder-like minimum…
    First of all, let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water. Yes, Dr. Hathaway’s prediction for cycle 24 bombed, but just suppose he does have a good method (speed of convection currents) for forecasting 2 cycles out. He has gone on record as saying that he expects cycle 25 to be the weakest in centuries as the speed of convection currents has dropped off the bottom of his chart. So, in fact, Dr. Hathaway is really not that far removed from talking Maunder-like stuff himself.
    Second, of course, is Penn and Livingston and the ongoing evident correctness of their observation that after 2015 visible sunspots will be quite rare indeed. Couple that with Leif’s prediction of a 2014 maximum for cycle 24 and things start to get very interesting indeed. It seems that cycle 24 may actually struggle to a very weak level then after that, almost nothing.
    Of course, that is the greatest curse a Chinese person can give you, “May you live in interesting times.”
    Regards to all,
    Paul

  10. David Archibald (23:55:46) :
    Neil O’Rourke (22:44:08) :
    The data is from NOAA: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/AMERICAN_NUMBERS/MONTHLY
    Of course it is not. Try to click on it to see for yourself.
    Dr Svalgaard exists in a parallel universe of data series he has created to support his notion that the Sun does not vary enough to change climate. He can’t fiddle with the Be10 data though
    don’t need to. McCracken and Beer have already calculated the Heliospheric Magnetic Field from the 10Be data. I replot their [hard to read] Figure here:
    http://www.leif.org/research/TSI%20From%20McCracken%20HMF.pdf
    It should be clear from the Figure on page 2 that the HMF during the Maunder minimum was not any different from that in the 18th, 19th, and first half of the 20th centuries. As David points out, one cannot fiddle with the 10Be data, and they clearly show no change in HMF between 1600 and 1945, apart from the regular 11-year cycle and the occasional volcanic effects as marked on the Figure.

  11. If what we are witnessing is the onset of a Maunder type minimum then surely, once it has been confirmed, this will kill warmist driven alternative energy policies stone dead?
    Will increased CO2 emissions then be feted as the saviour of Greeniekind? Will the prospect of freezing their buttocks off and going hungry lead them to a rethink on the whole AGW agenda?
    Probably not.
    “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” Albert Einstein.

  12. Be afraid… be very afraid. This could be nature’s way of culling the human race. If indeed we are heading towards a Maunder type minimum, the die off of humans will be severe.

  13. Richard 111;-)
    I don’t know, it could still be used for the AGW debate, surely? I agree that it should quitely dissappear from all scinetific debate, along with words like “consensus”, a word I always associated with “we don’t really know for sure but we’ll go along for the time being”.

  14. O’Rourke
    makes a good point.
    Dave may be comparing today’s trend to sunspot observations that were rough and arbitrary in the past.
    How sure can we be of the sunspot numbers from a technically primitive era?
    He may have a point here, but I feel he might be 6 months or a year premature. But certainly worth posting and reading.

  15. Looking at the latest solar image, there were some spots.
    Aren’t they a little low in lattitude?

  16. Without getting into the science, I had felt skeptical about the impact of cosmic rays on cloud formation. In my experience, a rising column of air is doing to form a cloud with 100 percent certainty once the relative humidity hits 100 percent.
    However if the cloud formation was facilitated by cosmic rays, then the rising air will more quickly heat up, causing a convective kick and a tendency to suck up more air from below. Although the amount of vapor in the atmosphere is likely to remain relatively constant, the extra air movement would facilitate convective heat transfer (at 180 W/m2 average, it wouldn’t take much fractional change to have a big impact), and any increase in those ephemeral clouds that come into being then dissipate will decrease the amount of solar energy reaching the surface.

  17. Richard,
    If there is a die off, I predict that said die off will consist of the Catlin Team members, their wannabes, fans, everyone who is looking forward to living fat off of Carbon Tax welfare statism, PETA members, and all the other fools who couldn’t live without a big city to support them.
    How cold do you bet it will get before they start telling us to throw more logs on the fire?
    Then again, they already took care of a new ice age in “The Day After Tomorrow”: thats due to global warming also.

  18. @UK Sceptic “once it has been confirmed, this will kill warmist driven alternative energy policies stone dead?”
    Since when have facts got in the way of Al Gore, or the AGW social-political religion in general? AGW will only be dead once they’ve found some other equally bad scare to replace it. (AGW replaced the AIDS hysteria, for which several decades of facts have proven their dooms-day predictions wrong.)

  19. There were some meteorological errors in that movie, “The Day After Tomorrow”. I got stuck on a 14 hour flight from Houston to Narita with only Japanese movies with English subtitles or “The Day After Tomorrow”. I tried for 8 hours to watch the other movies, but even with the English subtitles it was a bit tough. Probably just a culture barrier. I finally threw in the towel and was left watching “The Day After Tomorrow” 3 times. Not bad as a story, but again, let’s just say it leaves something to be desired as a meteorology lesson.
    Hurricanes (and Typhoons or any other name you can find) have a clear center because they are warm core. They actually end up being a high pressure system at high altitudes due to the hypsometric equation (how’s THAT for an inconvenient truth?). This causes the sinking air that forms the storm’s clear eye. Plainly, the storms they were depicting in “The Day After Tomorrow” were anything but warm core.
    If you remember the scientist said when asked “Wouldn’t the sinking air warm?” and he replies it would, except it is sinking too fast. WRONG – if it sank faster it would warm faster. They only way it could avoid warming is for its pressure and volume to remain constant… about as likely as the North Pole becoming ice free next month. Air of any temperature sinking from the stratosphere would be much more likely to flash fry you than flash freeze you.
    So, hopefully, we could shoot some holes in that as well if they started to use it. Interesting to get back in my field for a bit here. Since I’m employed by NOAA, I dare not comment on most of the weather related stuff here. It would be far too easy for what I said to be misinterpreted as the official opinion of NOAA, which it is not. I type what I think, and that’s all. This info is just from my meteorology degree.
    Hope this helps,
    Paul

  20. The comparison is simple: Both the Maunder and Dalton were recorded in groups. They didn’t count spots, they counted groups. There are still group counts that go on to this day. Compare them at the group level.
    The weakest part of the record for the 3 is the Dalton, and it still shows more activity at this point than present day. The Maunder actually had better coverage.
    On this page, 2nd graph down:
    http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin3.htm
    http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/2008fac.JPG – the white light faculae for 2008.
    Rotating into view right now is a white-light faculae for the 1st region we saw on stereo behind.
    As you can see in that graph, they too have become quite scarce.
    Except for a small gap in the record, this data has been kept by Greenwich for 100 years and now http://www.vds-sonne.de/gem/res/results.html
    The dearth of faculae at present is somewhat remarkable.
    If you were to do a faculaless days count, you might be surprised.

  21. On this and other blogs I have, from time to time, asked for evidence that the Dalton minimum period was in fact significantly colder than other periods in the 19th century. So far – nothing! None of the long term temperature records (apart from one, perhaps) indicate anything remarkable during the DM. A few tenths below the then average, perhaps, but nothing to write home about.
    Actually, it’s not true that I got nothing back. There were a few pieces of anecdotal evidence. Most notable was the loss of Napoleon’s troops due to cold during the retreat from Moscow. Apparently, winter in Russia was cold during the Dalton Minimum. However, I don’t believe this is unique to the Dalton Minimum. I seem to think the Germans found it a bit parky in the early 1940s – a relatively warm period globally.
    The DM picture is also confused by the level of volcanic activity including the massive Tombura eruption in 1815. But it’s also worth noting that on a polar expedition in 1817, William Scoresby Jr “noted a remarkable diminution of the polar ice” – a time when Britain was considering the possibility of opening up arctic sea routes.
    So I’ll ask again. Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average. Here’s the CET record for starters
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/hadcet.html

  22. OT: ICECAP is back with posting on May 8th.
    ” Friday, May 08, 2009
    SITE OUTAGE
    My apologies for the site outage. A very rare major disc failure that affected a lot of clients of the hosting service occurred early on the 7th. The fastest way back was to reload the versions from April 29. They are still trying to bring back old server with info from May 6. Unfortunately the solution eliminated the 25 posts between April 29 and May 6.
    Rather than post the backlog of new stories and then have them disapppear when (being optimistic) the site is fully restored, I am only going to add this notice this evening and then reassess tomorrow. My apologies. A lot is going on to tell you about.
    Posted on 05/08 at 07:18 PM

  23. >>If indeed we are heading towards a Maunder
    >>type minimum, the die off of humans will be severe.
    Why? We survived the Maunder Minimum in good shape, ready for the coming Enlightenment Era. Why will our age be any different?

  24. D Archibald Totally agree.. Sun has no effect whatsoever on climate…However L Svaalgard seems to be coming round.. by default LOL

  25. John Finn UK Met office not a credible source me thinks due to its offficial AGW commitment… LOL.. anymore anyway.. used to be a very professional body about 20 years ago

  26. >>In my experience, a rising column of air is doing to
    >>form a cloud with 100 percent certainty
    Not necessarily so, you can have a super-saturated body of water vapour that does not condense out – and ionisation most certainly assists condensation.
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007JChPh.126c4701C
    Yes water vapour will generally condense in the ‘violence’ of a cumulus cloud, but I don’t think that this is what we are talking about here. The idea is that humid layers in the high stratosphere are more likely to saturate given the ionisation of cosmic rays. Thus we will have more high altostratus, cirrostratus and mare’s tails in the high atmosphere that will reflect the Sun’s radiation.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cirrostratus_cloud
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altostratus_cloud
    .

  27. My research in the mid 90’s showed that this upcoming minimum will be slightly stronger than the Dalton, as it was to Maunder and so on. And this rising pattern of the 180-200 year double Gleisberg Cycles will continue up until around 2500 AD. Then they start to decline in numerical value.
    And I continue to like what I am seeing space weather wise in regards to my forecast for a June 2009 increase. Which is supposed to be the highest level of activity since March 2008.

  28. ralph ellis (04:38:57) :
    >>If indeed we are heading towards a Maunder
    >>type minimum, the die off of humans will be severe.
    Why? We survived the Maunder Minimum in good shape, ready for the coming Enlightenment Era. Why will our age be any different?
    ***************************
    What worries me Ralph is that the scoundrels and imbeciles of the global warming cult are driving society in the wrong direction, and wasting trillions of dollars in scarce resources to fight their favorite fantasy – global warming.
    If this foolish and destructive direction is not reversed soon, I fear that humanity will suffer greatly.
    We are completely unprepared if severe global cooling happens.

  29. We are absolutely seeing and counting spots today that would not have been seen or counted 350 years ago. Apples to apples, we appear to be Maundering.
    What did Landechidt predict again? A Maunder or Dalton-type minimum?

  30. Commenting on…
    David Archibald
    This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum

    David,
    It might make your comparison even more compelling if you plotted a couple of typical (recent and historical) solar minima on the chart of the Maunder, Dalton and Modern minima.

  31. The major reason will be starvation. Under a Maunder Minimum, there will be significant reduction in growing season in the northern latitudes. Countries such as Canada that are major food exporters would become food importers. There won’t be enough food to feed the masses.

  32. “The dearth of faculae at present is somewhat remarkable.”
    Good info, thanks.

  33. ralph ellis 04:38:57
    An excellent question. I agree with Richard de Sousa that we face a holocaustic die-off of humans if the cooling is dramatic and lengthy. The primary reason will be widespread crop failures, followed by plagues and wars. A mere 5% die-off of the human race is 350 million people. The first world societies cannot be completely insulated from the consequences of such a catastrophe.
    Also, society is much more highly structured today than in the past. Consequences of cooling are all pretty speculative at this point except for crop failures, and of course, will depend on the magnitude and length of the cooling. We are an adaptable species, however, and may do better than I expect.
    Leif 01:36:06
    Sorry to bore you but I’d like you to go through something from another thread, again. In one thread I speculated that if the sunspots go away, and if there aren’t any other changes in the known manifestations of the solar dynamic, then any global cooling, barring volcanoes or anthropogenic albedo change, might be attributable to the lack of spots or some unknown manifestation of the sun. Your answer didn’t make any sense to me
    ==================================

  34. John Finn (04:26:11) :
    So I’ll ask again. Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average.

    See Minard’s diagram of Napoleons March on Moscow in 1812
    http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/posters
    “Probably the best statistical graphic ever drawn, this map by Charles Joseph Minard portrays the losses suffered by Napoleon’s army in the Russian campaign of 1812. Beginning at the Polish-Russian border, the thick band shows the size of the army at each position. The path of Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow in the bitterly cold winter is depicted by the dark lower band, which is tied to temperature and time scales.”
    High-res diagram with temperatures & dates at bottom
    http://mingo.info-science.uiowa.edu/courses/org_info_1/readings/chapter_1/NapoleonsMarch1.gif

  35. There are two things that might or might not be connected, the cold, and the heat minima.
    Once more one should emphasize that the game of correlating highs and lows in sun data sequences is thankless if there is not an underlying physical connection with the climate on earth.
    It may be that there is a connection not discovered yet. In my opinion it would be something that changes albedo, like the proposed cosmic ray connection . I think we will have to wait through, to see if it is really a very low low we are living through , and if the cool persists even when the PDO flips to warm. Patience, this is a one off experiment and it takes a long time to develop.

  36. I wouldn’t put too much stock in a comparison like this. Comparisons of just three minimal onsets seems rather anecdotal. It would be nice if we had a few hundred over a few million years, but we don’t.
    This is almost the same trap climate modelers get into when testing their models. They test them over past climate cycles (even using relatively reliable, recent data), adjust them, tweak them and add additional factors until they track the actual observations. Then, they assume they are reliable predictors of the future. And they wonder why they continually diverge from actual observations year after year.
    No two cycles of any system containing chaotic factors are the same.

  37. correction to my anna v (05:48:12)
    The two things of course are the cold and the sun minima, not heat minima.
    I wonder whether the faculty we all have of being able to read if the first and last letters are correct even though the insides are scrambled works in this case too!

  38. In answer to the question by John Finn–” Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average ” is yes, we have a very good record of lower temperatures during both the Dalton and the Maunder in the glacial record, both in terms of the downvalley extent of alpine glaciers and in the isotope record of the Greenland ice cores.
    Don Easterbrook

  39. John Finn (04:26:11) :

    So I’ll ask again. Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average. Here’s the CET record for starters …

    Look at the graph you provided a link to. Think about what you’re seeing.
    BTW, thanks for providing some evidence to disprove your own assertion.

  40. Ralph Ellis:
    There was a lot of blood, crop failures, revolution, disease and other weather induced phenomenon leading up to and during the enlightenment. The end result was good for mankind overall. As for the individuals living during that period.. not so much.

  41. I think we have to be careful about applying apocalyptic scenarios to reduced solar output. The world today is much different from even that of the 1930’s. Consider: In the ’30’s we saw pictures of hungry babies clutching to forlorn women. My enduring vision of this recession will be my trip a few weeks ago from downtown Houston to the airport there, stuck in traffic, fuming that I would miss my plane. That’s my takeaway from the recession described as ‘the worst since the Great Depression’.

  42. I appreciate the contributions of learned and articulate contributors here at WUWT. I hope we don’t lose participation because the discussions turn personal. As to what will happen, let’s prepare to thrive in the inevitable change, whatever that may be. Shouldn’t large scale policy choices be focused on that?

  43. I think the INCONVENIENT MINIMUM!
    Not bad, but I think the prize has to go to the AD HO MINIMUM.
    Not mine. Forget who it was, but (s)he should step up and take a bow for that one.

  44. It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum
    (I wanted to be plainer but I couldn’t find a synonym)
    And thanks to modern media it’s not believed by anyone
    The sun has done a bunk and we will freeze for a millennium
    And so I’ll see you later; I am off for the equator
    For is the very model of a modern Major-minimum

  45. As I have remarked before we certainly know that the Artic has shown sudden periods of melting lasting a deade or so and that there have been five such events since just before the American war. Since we do not know why I would hesitate to call this a cycle: I would prefer to say that the current period does not seem unusual.
    I would also caution about CET data because although it is a very complete and indeed a remarkable record the area is small and on the edge of major weather systems and as a region during the DM was both densely populated and heavily urbanised. By the DM not only did the towns burn coal but the demand for coal for smelting iron was enormous and concentrated at the heart of the CET in the Black Country.
    And it was not called the Black country for nothing as contemporary writers named it. At that date the blast furnaces had open throats and were very inefficient, the ore quality was poor and coking was done by the surface burning of soft coal so consuming three to four times as much coal per ton of pig iron than fifty years later when harder coals, richer ore, coking ovens and cone fed blast furnaces had beome the norm.
    Urban heat Island effect? try industrial heat island effect.
    Kindest Regards

  46. The inherent unpredictability of the Sun eliminates us from understanding if we are in a Dalton or Maunder or another un-named cycle outside our data set. Our ability today to see sunspots the size of a large building, will also give us different data than during the Maunder when it took one the size of a planet to be seen.
    This will all play out and the AGW crowd will again blame me for having Air Conditioning, and the industrialized world for.. whatever. Warming, Cooling, Storms, No storms, Snow, No snow, etc. The true effect is academic to their arguments against man, technology, etc.

  47. evanmjones – Gilbert and Sullivan minimum! Great job! You did The Pirates of Penzance proud! Take a bow!

  48. I don’t want to be disrespectful, but I must agree with D. Archibald’s comment about Dr. Svalgaard dismissing the idea of solar driven climate, I have read numerous questions by lay-people and folks who are qualified and know their stuff and the Dr.’s answers do seem to brush it off as nonsense.
    It is such a pity that Landsheidt has passed, as I am sure these two gentlemen would bring and exchange some interesting points.
    Matt N: Landscheidt predicted a Maunder-type minimum bottoming in +-2030.
    There will be huge problems IF this does occur ( No scientist is 100% right, so we cannot dismiss or accept every prediction with confidence) but if it does occur it will be an absolute disaster, 6.5 billion people were not on the planet 400 years ago, so the food shortages and erratic weather patterns experienced back then would affect the current population much more. This is made even worse by the world government’s complete lack of planning for such an occurrence, it is not even being taken into consideration.
    BTW that Nostradamus link is misleading, I clearly remember reading one of the “doomsday” predictions advertised in the same manner in 2005, World War III was supposed to erupt viciously in June 2006… hmmm well that didn’t happen…

  49. SC 24 and Epidemics !!!!
    NPR yesterday interviewed Dr Peter Palese of Mt Sinai School of Medicine who has been studying the seasonality of influenza illness. He reports that at lower temperatures and absolute humidity, sneezed influenza droplets tend to float due to their smaller size. When temp and AH increase, the droplets get larger and fall to the floor and hence are less capable of causing an infection. The smaller size of the winter droplets also contributes to enhanced transmission by making it harder for the cilia of the lung to brush them out.
    Given that David Archibald sees about a 2.1Degree Centigrade drop in mean temperatures in mid-latitude areas over the next decade, not only are we likely to see a big drop in agricultural productivity-30% for the Midwest US- but the extended winter season is likely to give us a greater exposure time to H1N1and H5N1and any other new pig-human-avian viri which are out there.
    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103910735
    http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/QuantifyingAgProductivityResponseSolarCycle%2024.pdf

  50. David, if we purely look at statistics, there is good reason to suggest that the upcoming grand minimum might be more Maunder like. I believe there is another way to look at it. It is a matter of timing of what causes grand minima. According to my theory, SC4 experienced what causes grand minima not long after its peak, whereas SC23 experienced the same thing very late in the cycle, leaving the way forward for SC24 to take the full brunt. The Maunder minimum also experienced late timing, but the mechanisms involved are way stronger than what we are about to experience. There’s not much juice left in the tank.
    Perhaps we can discuss this when you are in Melbourne in a couple of weeks.

  51. UK Sceptic (01:40:29) :
    “If what we are witnessing is the onset of a Maunder type minimum then surely, once it has been confirmed, this will kill warmist driven alternative energy policies stone dead?”
    Are you sure? Given the insanity, and complete ignoring of the facts that I have seen over the past several years on our climate, I’m sure “Climate Change” would be renamed “Climate Chaos” and it would still somehow be seen as “consistent with” AGW theory. Since AGW theory cannot be falsified, then anything (even a bear s###g in the woods) is seen as “consistent with” AGW theory.
    Like you I live in hope that ice on thames might cause a double-take with many, but given history, I’m certain the blind would ignore it – “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” etc.

  52. @ ralph ellis (04:38:57) “Why will our age be any different?”
    The size and density of the population relative to carrying capacity might be one reason.
    The dependence of the population on non-local food sources might be another.
    The imbalance of population vs natural game another.
    Peak Oil, another.
    The destructiveness of weapons of mass destruction another…

  53. John Finn (04:26:11) :
    On this and other blogs I have, from time to time, asked for evidence that the Dalton minimum period was in fact significantly colder than other periods in the 19th century. So far – nothing! None of the long term temperature records (apart from one, perhaps) indicate anything remarkable during the DM. A few tenths below the then average, perhaps, but nothing to write home about.

    May I say the same thing, then, about the current warming? A few tenths above the average for what — the last century? Nothing to write home about!
    Seriously — using HadCRUT3, the average anomaly for the 20th Century was -0.14. For the last 30 years of the 20th Century it was 0.08. So we are talking about a warming of little more than two tenths of a degree.
    Temps did dip during the Dalton Minimum. Here’s one example:
    http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/uppsala801816.jpg
    And this isn’t the example cited in Wikipedia (if that is the “apart from one, perhaps” example you were alluding to).
    Personally, I wouldn’t expect a Dalton-like minimum to push the Earth back into a “Little Ice Age.” That was probably a combination of lower solar activity, and higher volcanic activity. Lacking the latter, a Dalton-like minimum might well contribute to a more moderate rate of temperature increases, or no increase at all, compared to what we’ve seen in recent decades. That would still be significant. But combine it with a dramatic increase in volcanic activity, and it will be a world like none of the living have experienced.

  54. MattN (05:16:31) :
    “We are absolutely seeing and counting spots today that would not have been seen or counted 350 years ago. Apples to apples, we appear to be Maundering.
    What did Landechidt predict again? A Maunder or Dalton-type minimum?”
    Landscheidt has predicted a Maunder like minimum.
    Deep minimum reached by 2030.

  55. evan
    My kids were just in a musical, the pirates of Penzance(sp) an that diddu of yours made me laugh. thanks for the humor.
    Cheers

  56. Basil (07:31:46):
    “But combine it with a dramatic increase in volcanic activity, and it will be a world like none of the living have experienced”.
    Yes, the volcanic eruptions (VEI7) magnitude were quite frequent during that period in time and were without a shiver of doubt responsible for the most extreme
    meteorological events.
    As most volcanic activity (and earth quakes) have been observed during periods with a minimum or a maximum we must conclude that humanity has been very lucky for the past 100 years.
    Our current civilization is only one VEI 7 eruption away from a big pile of trouble.

  57. >>As David points out, one cannot fiddle with the
    >>10Be data, and they clearly show no change in
    >>HMF between 1600 and 1945, apart from the
    >>regular 11-year cycle
    Brilliant. So we cannot tell the number of Sunspots in the 1600s, because they are sooo difficult to count, but we do accurately know the exact values for the Helio Magnetic Field for the same era. I did not know that SOHO was launched that early.
    .

  58. But for the enviros, we could be decades further ahead in the development of genetically engineered crops (cereal grains in particular) that can grow well in colder climates.
    But for the enviros, we would have much greater nuclear power generating capacity in the U.S. and likely in other countries as well.
    The enviros get frantic about an alleged crisis but refuse to permit the development of potential solutions (at least those that might actually work).

  59. The developing El Nino in 2009, and the possibility of another one following in it’s footsteps in 2010, does not bode well for a continual cooling of the earth as some have suggested. At least not like the drop in 2008 or in the near term.
    Here’s what some need to consider with the sun-climate connection. This forcing relationship is built more around how the dice get loaded with certain oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. And these relationships are related to the cyclical nature of different space weather variables and how they wax and wane.
    So certain cycles will tend to exhibit different sets of variables and this is indirectly related to their strength and length. Which then makes the earth’s climate system behave differently. Hence different weather-climate patterns.

  60. @ John Finn
    Paraphrasing what Leif on this forum has said, weather records are often too noisy to be used as any kind of trend markers, I do know that the east coast of America was rather chilly during the Revolutionary War, what with Valley Forge and all… Thing is, turns out, it was colder in New York the year AFTER Valley Forge. 1779 was most likely the coldest winter New York has seen in some time.
    Newsday has an article quoting from a (rare) book written by a guy who chronicled North American weather histories.
    Long Island froze over to the extent that Hessian mercenaries defected by walking the 12 miles from Long Island to Connecticut. The ice between New Jersey, Staten Island, and Manhattan was frozen hard enough to allow a convoy of horses and cannon to be moved across the ice. (those with experience driving a car on ice would know what thickness of ice would allow for this)
    While I’ll agree that correlation does not equal causation, I’ve noticed it’s difficult (but not impossible) to find significant cold records in times of high SSN.

  61. .
    >>“Why will our age be any different?”
    A number of reasons why we may suffer a population calamity have been given. Of these, I think that food production will be the greatest problem. We are highly dependent on higher latitude crops, rather than the efforts of African and South American farmers, and a dramatic cooling in the higher latitudes may well reduce crop yields.
    America will survive this, as they can just rein in their vast exports, but this may have severe impacts elsewhere in the world. And it is true that a hungry world is a dangerous world.
    Ok, it could be ‘interesting times’.
    .

  62. Alex (23:53:57) : “My first prediction came true 🙂 The first region is indeed a plague…”
    According to the American Heritage dictionary:
    Plague: n., 1. A widespread affliction or calamity, especially one seen as divine retribution.
    2. A sudden destructive influx or injurious outbreak: a plague of locusts; a plague of accidents.
    3. A cause of annoyance; a nuisance: “the plague of social jabbering” (George Santayana).
    4a. A highly infectious, usually fatal, epidemic disease; a pestilence…
    I don’t recall seeing a Solar Locust Count in any of the charts. Or any cases of Solar Flu this week. Could you mean plage, by any chance?
    REPLY: Great, locusts from the sun. One more of the plages of Pharaoh to worry about 😉 – Anthony

  63. Landscheidt predicted a Maunder Minimum type of cooling … looks like Archibalds conclusions are once again showing that Landscheidt was correct ….. correct YEARS before this happened.
    I can only ask .. when will the Science community stop making the excuse that he dabbled in Astrology, thus anything he said is bunk. I’ve read his stuff on John Daly, and there was no astrology in it. It was all mathmatical calculation.

  64. For zose who noticed that ze Napoleon’s Retreat chart is labeled in ze Frönch degrees Raeioumur, here’s ze conversion, left to right on ze chart:
    °Reaumur °Celcius
    -30 -37.5
    -24 -30
    -20 -25
    -11 -13.75
    -21 -26.5
    -9 -11.25
    0 0
    That’s COLD! I’ll take rice paddies in Asia over Russia in winter anytime.

  65. http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm
    New Little Ice Age instead of global warming [PDF 429K]
    by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt
    Energy and Environment 14, 327-350. – 2003
    Abstract:
    Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Nino years before the respective event.
    *******************************
    11. Outlook
    We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.
    ***********************************
    Questions for those who have researched Theodor Landscheidt:
    It seems to me that predictive ability is the acid-test of scientific hypothesis.
    Can anyone confirm or falsify Theo’s claims to have predicted three El Nino’s?
    Also, when did Theo first predict global cooling at 2030? This E&E paper is dated 2003.
    Best Allan
    Sources:
    http://www.john-daly.com/guests.htm
    http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/papers-by-dr-theodor-landscheidt/

  66. For moment I thought I had surfed over to Climate Progress or Real Climate.
    So much doom and gloom being predicted on so little evidence!
    What Mr. Archibald presents is interesting, but it has some pretty big holes. While he acknowledges the biggest of those holes, many (too many?) of the posters seem to assume the holes either aren’t there or are insignificant.

  67. I’ve asked this on other posts. I hope someone can give some kind of answer. Do we have reliable time temperature data for parts of Mars, the moon?…. If so, a comparison would be most instructive. I see all the efforts assessing calorimetry factors of the oceans, satellite temp measures of sea surface and ground and troposphere and stratosphere, drilling holes in trees and kilometres of ice, albedo effect measurements and estimates.
    The billions spent on research, data gathering, data fiddling – scientific conclusions that can’t seem to be trusted, or at least can’t seem to resolve the questions to any satisfactory degree, could and should be spent on an array of temperature guages on the moon and on Mars if the climate question is so important. We would comparatively cheaply answer the question: ” Is the sun’s behaviour a significant driver of climate?”

  68. vg (04:53:05) :
    John Finn UK Met office not a credible source me thinks due to its offficial AGW commitment… LOL.. anymore anyway.. used to be a very professional body about 20 years ago

    Are you saying they’ve fiddled the 19th century temperatures to show that the DM wasn’t particularly cold? Ok – find some other data which shows the cold Dalton Minimum.

  69. Jim Hughes (07:58:10) : “The developing El Nino…”
    Good post. We need to remember, though, that an El Nino is a heat shedding mechanism, not a source of heat. Heat is lost from the size 1200 heat sink and sits in the atmosphere, the size 1 sink, only for a while.
    evanmjones (07:08:55) : “It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum…”
    Catchy tune, LOL. I hope it’s still funny in 10 years.
    John M (06:54:34) : “…The new enlightenment is already here. I read it in Science Magazine, so it must be right…”
    John, that’s even funnier than evan’s song!

  70. Has anyone been monitoring the temperatures at Thule, GL? The temps have barely gotten above 20F and projected to be in the teens this week, With a short Summer season and the amount of ice expansion this winter, ice melt may be at a minimum.

  71. kim (05:35:07) :
    In one thread I speculated that if the sunspots go away, and if there aren’t any other changes in the known manifestations of the solar dynamic, then …
    Perhaps the problem lies in ‘go away’. If the magnetic field of the spot is 1510 Gauss the spot is visible and all the ‘other manifestations’ have a certain set of values. If the magnetic field is 1490 Gauss, all the ‘other manifestations’ have a certain set of values that are just slightly smaller [or for your hypothetical case not even smaller] than for the 1510 Gauss case, but the sunspot is no longer visible [has ‘gone away’]. What you are assuming is that if all the ‘other manifestations’ [which the heliosphere and the Earth are reacting to] are the same and the only thing that has changed is the contrast of the spot in white light [controlling whether we humans can actually ‘see’ the spot] then that change in contrast is driving the Earth’s climate [if I understand your question]. We may note that even if the spot is invisible in white [or actually ‘green’ light where most the emission takes place] it is still visible in other wavelengths [e.g. in ‘yellow’ light]. you can see this clearly in the images from Mt. Wilson: http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/intro.html
    Look at the plage just arrived on the East limb. The magnetic field there is under 1500 Gauss, so on the 5250 image [in the green] you see a brightening, but on the 5896 image [in the yellow] you see a darkening. So, the plages would look like a spot in yellow light, but there would be no spot [rather a brightening, so spot has ‘gone away’] in green light. And you are saying that that drives the climate? even if all other properties of the active region remained the same.

  72. Alex says:

    I don’t want to be disrespectful, but I must agree with D. Archibald’s comment about Dr. Svalgaard dismissing the idea of solar driven climate, I have read numerous questions by lay-people and folks who are qualified and know their stuff and the Dr.’s answers do seem to brush it off as nonsense.

    You know, it is funny, but a little thought reveals a few interesting things. For example, the power supply in my amplifier ultimately controls the volume at the speakers, but then again, there is a knob on the front of the amplifier that allows me to adjust the level, so who really controls the volume?
    If the Earth’s climate system is as sensitive as many people claim to the teeny-weeny fluctuations in TSI I suspect we would not be here. A system with the hundreds of millions to billions of years of stability the system has shown does not react the way some people suggest it does.

    It is such a pity that Landsheidt has passed, as I am sure these two gentlemen would bring and exchange some interesting points.
    Matt N: Landscheidt predicted a Maunder-type minimum bottoming in +-2030.

    The degradation of the English language as spoken in one of the former colonies is to be deplored. What did he pass? Wind? Oh, you mean passed away. I tend to have a problem with the incorrect use of adverbs as well.
    It is interesting that much scientific progress seems to be made when the old guard passes away.

  73. Here is a 4 May comment on NSIDC Web site: “Arctic sea ice extent declined quite slowly in April; as a result, total ice extent is now close to the mean extent for the reference period (1979 to 2000). The thin spring ice cover nevertheless remains vulnerable to summer melt.”
    Here is the 6 May graphics: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
    It is clear that the 2009 line is moving ever so slowly closer to the 1979-2000 average. If the ice is really so thin as they infer why is it so slow to thaw? Just a question from a layman.

  74. With the coming El Nino-with a cool pacific,-is there any indication of the involvement of increased South Pacific (i.e.Indonesia) Volcanic activity being a factor? Possibly undersea volcanic activity? Something that has been mulling around my head for years….
    BTW I predict this is not going to be a very large Nino….
    But I’m not a Scientist-just a speculator with a little,possibly
    dangerous knowlege :-)..

  75. Don J. Easterbrook (06:37:09) :
    In answer to the question by John Finn–” Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average ” is yes, we have a very good record of lower temperatures during both the Dalton and the Maunder in the glacial record, both in terms of the downvalley extent of alpine glaciers and in the isotope record of the Greenland ice cores.

    Where? And I mean specifically the Dalton minimum. I’ve seen lots of evidence for generally lower temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries but nothing that suggests the 1790-1820 period was particularly unusual.

    Walt Stone (08:10:16) :
    @ John Finn
    Paraphrasing what Leif on this forum has said, weather records are often too noisy to be used as any kind of trend markers, I do know that the east coast of America was rather chilly during the Revolutionary War, what with Valley Forge and all… Thing is, turns out, it was colder in New York the year AFTER Valley Forge. 1779 was most likely the coldest winter New York has seen in some time.

    Thanks, Walt, but 1779 was a bit before the Dalton Minimum and if my memory serves me correct (I will check), solar activity was pretty high in 1779.

    Basil (07:31:46) :
    Temps did dip during the Dalton Minimum. Here’s one example:
    http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/uppsala801816.jpg
    And this isn’t the example cited in Wikipedia (if that is the “apart from one, perhaps” example you were alluding to).

    Come off it, Basil, your link just shows the temperatures from the DM. It doesn’t provide a comparison with other periods. There’s a much longer record from the same site here:
    http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/gwuppsala.htm
    The DM looks pretty average. In fact, temperatures appear to drop after the Dalton minimum. There’s quite definitely a cooling trend from ~1820 to the 1860s. Not a good example.

    DR (08:02:58) :
    @ John Finn
    Google ‘Little Ice Age Evidence’.

    Why? I’m referring specifically to the Dalton Minimum. A period between 1790 and 1820 – though I’m not sure why it starts as early as 1790 since the first of the ‘weak’ Dalton cycles didn’t start until 1798.

  76. I am still amazed at how few here focus on what our own highly variable atmosphere is capable of producing regarding long term trends. Here we sit on a globe that has far greater potential in terms of mechanisms for global cooling and warming that are completely natural, cyclic, solidly based in physics, and defendable. Yet we continue to focus on the minutia of “unknown” solar and barycenter mechanisms just waiting to be discovered and explained. It is the age old argument between “the first encountered pathology” and “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” found in medical dialogue.
    Which brings me to a current train of thought regarding colder air but lots more snow and water equivalent in the mountains here in NE Oregon. Where is this moisture coming from if colder air means dryer air? I am following the trail of water vapor that is coming over us to see where it is sourced. It seems that the warm surface water that is being blown into the east part of the Pacific kicks out moisture into the atmosphere over the ocean and then swirls back towards the northern west coast in globby swirling bands which is loading the atmosphere with enough moisture to fall as wet snow as it is picked up by the jet stream. My hunch is that this will continue until the warmed concentrated waters packed against the eastern part of the Pacific have mixed with cold lower layers or expanded their heat. Eventually this source of moisture will dry up and we will start to experience cold without snow. My hunch is that this persistent very dry cold air will result in less summer melt of Arctic ice leading to an ice advance that eventually goes past the average extent.
    I follow the trail of first encountered pathology. And spots or no spots will likely have such a small affect that the weather noise and standard error will completely obscure the effect of such a small solar influence relative to what the vast oceans are capable of producing.

  77. John Finn (04:26:11) :

    So I’ll ask again. Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average. Here’s the CET record for starters …
    My great-grandfather migrated south after the summer of 1816 in which there was a killing frost each month of the year. He had been farming in northern New York. Killing frost in every month that year is well documented in states from NewYork to Ohio:
    ARTICLE from The Decatur County Journal, June 9, l892
    “The year without a summer, l8l6, is now being quite generally recalled.
    According to the records, January and February of that year were warm and spring like. March was cold and stormy.
    Vegetation had gotten well along in April when real winter set in. Sleet and snow fell on seventeen different days in May.
    In June there was either frost or snow every night but three. The snow was five inches deep for several days in succession in the interior of New York and from ten inches to three feet in Vermont and Maine.
    July was cold and frosty, ice formed as thick as window panes in every one of the New England States.
    August was still worse; ice formed nearly an inch in thickness, and killed nearly every green thing in the United States and in Europe.
    In the spring of l8l7, corn, which had been kept over from the crop of l8l5, sold for from $5 to $l0 a bushel, the buyers purchasing for seed … ”

  78. Pamela-also things tend to dry out in the NW in an El Nino-in the winter.Interesting thought about the latent heat….

  79. David Archibald:
    If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.
    Why don´t you make a third graph not taking into account those “ghost spots”, conveniently generated at that “parallel universe” which intersects ours in the so called “Boulder Triangle”? 🙂
    It would be very interesting to see a graph including volcanic activity in those years.

  80. You can get an even higher-level overview of SSN activity in the naked-eye sunspot records.
    Again, still done today. Think of it as a Maximum Smoothing Filter.
    Here’s a little more food for thought:
    For the last 250 years or more, science has been trying to answer the question of whether the universe is expanding forever or will eventually collapse in on itself.
    You know that condenstation in the very early universe took place by expansion lowering the temperature state.
    Look at Earth’s Ice Age record. Goes back to 4 billion years ago.
    Does it say the Earth is cooling, or warming?
    Does the Sun go up in the Main Sequence giving ever more output or is it the opposite?
    Is the Universe expanding and therefore dropping the temp of Space Environment around Earth or is it contracting and raising the temp?
    For one of the references on the Dalton, check out
    ‘A Perspective of Wages and Prices’ – Henry Phelps-Brown and Shiela V Hopkins
    London, 1981 – pg 59

  81. Pierre Gosselin:
    How sure can we be of the sunspot numbers from a technically primitive era?
    I totally disagree. Just compare it to this era of Gores, Hansens, fake Nobel Prizes,etc.

  82. “Steven Kopits (07:06:15) : I think we have to be careful about applying apocalyptic scenarios..”
    It’s the better part of wisdom, IMO, to not underestimate human inclination to superstition. Watch this video featuring Sallie Baliunas to see what has happened in a previous cooling period. I don’t have any evidence to think human nature is any different now. The only difference is we’d be seeing it live streaming on CNN or the internet :

  83. jorgekafkazar:
    Yes, in fact I was about to write “plage”, but then I thought that “plague” sounds more poetic and thus I decided to create a new word… Oh how Shakespearian of me…
    Richard Sharpe:
    “The degradation of the English language as spoken in one of the former colonies is to be deplored. What did he pass? Wind? Oh, you mean passed away. I tend to have a problem with the incorrect use of adverbs as well.”
    Having trouble reading posts that have certain words cut out to prevent clutter and the creation of a boring, long thesis? Perhaps next time I shall spell out every single word, as it seems that not all have the ability to apply language skills to deduce that “passed” is a short version of “passed away”.
    Before you criticise, I suggest that you polish your punctuation skills:
    ( “in TSI I suspect” –> in TSI, I suspect ).
    TSI is not the only factor that can be discussed as having some effect.
    In fact, it is more often the changes in the magnetic field that are of interest rather than TSI. I guess that my comments have been brushed aside by Mr. Sharpe as they do not fit the consensus that the idea of a climate driven largely by solar factors is a belief for amateurs, astrologers and people who have dreadful language skills. Oh well.

  84. Where is there indication of an El Niño developing in 2009?
    Apologies, Last paragraph should read : ” as they DO fit the consensus” … – my bad, LOL. 🙂

  85. “DR (08:02:58) : Isn’t the internet great?”
    Yes it is!!
    And I am SO GLAD WattsUpWithThat exists!

  86. vukcevic (10:37:29) :
    Another Maunder type minimum due around 2150-80
    Very interesting Vuk, the AM graph also shows the next downturn after this one at 2150, not perhaps of Maunder status but indeed a slow down. Maunder type minimums look to be very rare events going by history according to Solanki and Usoskin.

  87. Just Want Truth… (10:22:30) : We´ll see if Mrs.Baillunas “weather cooking”, through her withchcraft art produces the next “Super Solar Maximum” she has predicted. 🙂
    Nowadays sorcerers and witches will be punished because of their “weather cooking” through taxation, ordered by the church of global warming, and their black pope Al.

  88. Ron de Haan (10:55:32) : (About that Sanchez)..That is why, in the las 50 years we have been conveniently exporting all these people to you. 🙂

  89. For the benefit of a non science type, if we end up between a Dalton or a Maunder minimum and the earth actually cools are we talking about .5 degrees C or 5 degrees C? Should I start buying desert land in southern California or land in Guatamala? Don’t worry, I’m not really going to buy land. (yet… 😉 , I understand these are just predictions at this point, but if someone could contribute a translation for me, and probably others (this website receives a lot of hits), it would be helpful. I have reviewed many of the links on this website with more detailed descriptions, but it can be difficult to convert to layman’s terms. Thanks in advance.

  90. Calling this minimum Maunder-esque is possibly a bit of an overreach. That would require forecasting several cycles hence. “Past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns”. We might have a relatively “normal” cycle in historical terms albeit weaker than recent cycles which have been unusually strong. It is just too early, in my opinion, to be calling for either a Dalton or Maunder kind of minimum.

  91. @ Leif Svalgaard (01:36:06) :
    Interesting paper, thanks.
    “As David points out, one cannot fiddle with the 10Be data”
    As for the “discontinuity” around the middle of the 20th century in McCracken and Beer’s data, it actually appears as an uptrend from around 1950 to 1962 (following a downtrend from 1935 which I’m conveniently ignoring ATM 🙂
    This is the period when a lot of atmospheric nuclear weapon testing was done.
    (As as interesting and possibly relevant aside, Starfish Prime on 9 July 1962 dramatically loaded the Van Allen belts and rendered seven satellites inoperable, including Telstar. The effects on the belts took five years to dissipate. There is some good detail in the May 1963 Scientific American.)
    Could the testing have affected the Be10 record? Or affected the ionosphere in a way which would have confounded the record?
    Have the possible effects of these thousands of atmospheric nuclear explosions been taken into account by the scientific community when analyzing the ice cores?
    As I recollect, there is also a warming period in the temperature records over that time period, and temperatures regressed to the secular trends after testing stopped. Hypotheses non fingo.

  92. @ Bob Montle (09:56:02) :
    The climatic effects in 1816 are generally ascribed to Mount Tambora. 1816 was the “year without a summer” due to atmospheric obscuration. Check Wikipedia.
    There is, of course, the hypothetical correlation of volcanic activity with the Dalton minimum.

  93. Piers Corbyn uses the sun to make his forecasts. He is more accurate than others. (If someone knows a more accurate forecaster than him please post their record) His success shows that the sun drives weather and climate.
    This point alone shows you can’t reject solar influence.
    Sorry to those who disagree—I’m not trying to be abrasive.
    ———————
    “None of the major climate changes in the last 1000 years can be explained by co2….. The sun is driving climate change. Co2 is irrelevant.”
    –Piers Corbyn
    from, The Great Global Warming Swindle

  94. “We know that the sun was responsible for climate change in the past, and so is clearly going to play the lead role in present and future climate change. And interestingly… solar activity has recently begun a downward cycle. Average global temperatures have dropped slightly over the past seven (now 8) years.”
    –Ian Clark
    -hydrogeologist and professor
    -arctic specialist
    -Department of Earth Sciences
    -University of Ottawa

  95. Bob Montle (9:56), the winter in summer you describe in 1816 was due to the very large volcano eruption in 1815 of Tambora, Indonesia, I think. Its Volcanic Explosive Index (VEI) was 7, higher than all other major eruptions of the last 250 years through 1991. Its Dust Veil Index (DVI/Emax) was 3000, pretty high. Only Cosiguina, Nicaragua in 1835 was higher. And its IVI (Ice Core Volcanic Index) is greater than all others. Climate and weather sure are complex. Makes one want to look very seriously at E.M. Smith’s advice at chiefio.com on food storage.
    Catchpole and Hanuta (1989), Severe summer ice in Hudson Strait and Hudson Bay following major volcanic eruptions 1751 to 1889. And Alan Robcock (2000), Volcanic eruptions and climate.

  96. “1. The climate of the Earth depends on the interaction between the surface and the atmosphere, both of which are heated by solar radiation characterized by a cyclical, variable intensity. The climate is influenced by the Earth’s yearly revolution around the Sun, thermics, changes in ocean waters flow, air mass movement, mountain massif position, their uplift and erosion in time perspective as well as changes in the continents’ position as a result of their permanent wandering…. ”
    ~Geologic Science Committee – Polish Academy of Sciences
    http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/PAS.htm
    (h/t Benny Peiser, and Lubos Motl)

  97. “The PAN Committee of Geological Sciences believes it necessary to start an interdisciplinary research based on comprehensive monitoring and modelling of the impact of other factors – not just the level of CO2 – on the climate. Only this kind of approach will bring us closer to identifying the causes of climate change.”
    ~Geologic Science Committee – Polish Academy of Sciences
    Wroclaw-Warsaw, 12 February 2009
    http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/PAS.htm

  98. BlogForTech : “I cannot understand what this post is about. Care to elaborate more?”
    I agree, perhaps we need a little bit more information/explanation. I don’t really think that these two graphs are convincing enough on their own…
    With regards to the new PLAGE (plague!) on the sun, is there a record keeping of plages? Were plagues like this visible during the Dalton/Maunder minima? Looking at the images of the sun, it sure looks as if it is stirring, but there are no spots, so technically the sun would have been viewed as quiet back then right?… were these CMES common during the minima? Is there a way to tell?

  99. Perr-reviewed (for those who feel peer-review is a prerequisite, tough I do believe E=mc2 was never peer reviewed before publication 😉 )
    “…..a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades…. It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
    –Boris Komitov, Institute of Astronomy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
    &
    –Vladimir Kaftan, Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Aerial Surveying and Cartography, Federal Agency of Geodesy and Cartography, Moscow, Russia
    http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=288314
    and
    http://www.astro.bas.bg/AIJ/issues/n9/BKomitov.pdf

  100. According to ICECAP, the alarmists didn’t say anything when Alaska was experiencing temperatures much cooler than normal, yet when it gets above normal for a change they beat the AGW drum.
    Also, the Southern Hemisphere seems to be cooling rapidly as a prelude to their winter here (maybe a prelude to a solar-induced severe Winter?)
    http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Maximum.aspx?location=ARSE0041
    And here
    http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Maximum.aspx?location=ASXX0206
    Other charts show the Middle East heating up like it does every summer, Siberia and northern North America staying on the cool side, the U.S. is seeing a mix of above and below normal temps, here in Wichita the week’s forecast should come to about average or maybe a little below.

  101. KBK (12:28:16) :
    As for the “discontinuity” around the middle of the 20th century in McCracken and Beer’s data, it actually appears as an uptrend from around 1950 to 1962 (following a downtrend from 1935 which I’m conveniently ignoring ATM 🙂
    I didn’t point it out, but there is an arrow that points to the discontinuity. On the top panel there are even annotations: ‘muon’ and ‘neutron’. This refers to the fact that the modern instrument to measure cosmic rays, the neutron monitor, was only invented ~1951. Before that, cosmic rays were measured with ‘ionization chambers’ that rely on muons instead of neutrons. The neutron monitors are ‘absolute’ counters that doesn’t require calibration, but the muon detectors will have to be calibrated to know what the count means. There were a handful of balloon flights in the 1930s that were used for the calibration and it is that calibration that is in doubt. So, the 10Be record converted to cosmic ray count [which is what is of interest when discussing solar activity, because it is though the modulation of cosmic rays that solar activity leaves a trace in the 10Be record] is encumbered by having to be spliced together from two different instruments.
    This is the period when a lot of atmospheric nuclear weapon testing was done.
    We basically don’t use ice cores/tree rings after 1950 for that reason. We also don’t have to because we know from the neutron monitors what the real cosmic ray flux is, so why use contaminated proxies…

  102. Just read a book on the famous E=mc^2. Einstien’s 1905 “Special Relativity” paper was NOT peer reviewed. Merely reviewed by the editors of the journal it was presented in. It also had NO references or citations. (Although in following years various exchanges of letters and manuscripts left a fairly clear trail to point to the 10 contemporary physics “giants” on whose shoulders Albert was standing.)
    It does give one pause about the current “fetish” with peer review.
    MH

  103. Russian astronomer Khabibulo Abdusamatov in his work LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF THE INTEGRAL RADIATION FLUX AND POSSIBLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE SOLAR CORE
    Abstract:
    We show that the cyclic 11-year variations observed in the solar integral radiation flux are due to some fundamental global processes which occur deeply in the Sun and which cause the corresponding changes in the radius and effective temperature of the photosphere. The 11-year variations of the “solar constant” are determined almost entirely by the changes of the area of the radiating photosphere surface at a constant effective temperature. So, an 11-year heliocycle is a simultaneous phase- and amplitude-correlated oscillation of the solar activity, radius, and radiation flux. The secular variations of the “solar constant” were detected directly for the first time. We suppose that the observed identical long-term variations of the activity, radius, and radiation flux are caused by some common processes which occur deeply in the Sun. They correlate with the global oscillations of the whole Sun. Such oscillations are caused by cyclic changes of the temperature in the solar core, and they can trigger the generation of the solar cycles. We expect that the next relatively deep minimum of the solar activity, radius, and radiation flux in the 200-year quasi-cycle will be close to the Maunder minimum level and will occur in the year 2040 ±10.

    http://www.giurfa.com/abdusamatov2.pdf

  104. When I was young, a 3 day forecast was a big deal.
    Now, we get 10 day and 2 week outlooks.
    Just because we cannot now predict cycles into the future does not mean we will never get there.
    Without a goal, there is no effort.
    Of course, we could go back to the ancient ways of praying and offering sacrifice for bountiful harvest, and when it doens’t come we can all feel guilty, or get invaded & wiped out by those nations that did have enough to eat.
    We could do that.
    We could dump science as predictively useless and go back to idol worship.
    I hope not.

  105. Only one month to go until we verify David’s prediction made last year of a massive global cooling. On current numbers it will be – perhaps – the worst forecast in climate history.
    PS we aren’t vetting are we?

  106. Richard Henry Lee (23:32:38) :
    IMHO Henrik Svensmark´s theory states that GCR will increase cloud formation through seed formation of drops, but the trouble is that when in a minimum seas are colder then there is less evaporation hence less humidity and less stuff for the GCR to work properly.

  107. Adolfo Giurfa (13:43:56) :
    Russian astronomer Khabibulo Abdusamatov[…]
    fundamental global processes which occur deeply in the Sun and which cause the corresponding changes in the radius and effective temperature of the photosphere. […]
    The 11-year variations of the “solar constant” are determined almost entirely by the changes of the area of the radiating photosphere surface at a constant effective temperature.[…]

    The main problem with that idea is that we see changes in TSI that correspond to magnetic activity we see at the surface and follow solar rotation, as easily seen here [blue curve]:
    http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
    which, BTW is up-to-date [updated every day]

  108. The problem with nothing ever changing is that it does.
    It takes energy to sort and classify, and to establish order.
    All that it takes is for a lack of energy for things to decay into lesser states.
    So my question is: Are the times of Grand Minimum or Grand Maximum the times of greater order?

  109. Just Want Truth… (13:02:31) :
    Piers Corbyn uses the sun to make his forecasts. He is more accurate than others. (If someone knows a more accurate forecaster than him please post their record) His success shows that the sun drives weather and climate.
    This point alone shows you can’t reject solar influence.
    Sorry to those who disagree—I’m not trying to be abrasive.
    Just Want Truth, what particular types of forecasts are you referring to. The El Nino or other type of things ?
    There have been some others besides Pier’s who have been forecasting many different things over the years and these forecasts have been on record also. And they were partially space weather based.
    BTW tell Piers I said hello if you know him. I talked to him on a couple of occassions back in the 1996-98 time frame but most of my minor interactions were with an associate of his at Action Weather, Kourosh Bamsi-Yazdi.
    Koroush was interested in my research involving the planetary effect upon the solar cycle as well as the latter’s effect upon the ENSO.

  110. Alex (13:20:28) :
    BlogForTech : “I cannot understand what this post is about. Care to elaborate more?”
    To put this post into context, I was highly impressed by Guillermo Gonzalez’s post on a log plot of TSI variance. Looking at his graphic, the Sun is very much dead, an order of magnitude quiter than at the month of minimum for the 22/23 transition. It is also still in downtrend and may get quieter still yet. It may be that the best indication of the month of minimum of the 23/24 transition is when that downtrend is broken.
    When was the last time that the Sun went really dead? It was at the beginning of the Maunder. There have been other long quiet periods such as the year long spotless transition between Solar Cycles 5 and 6, but what does it look like going into a sudden switch off? So I tracked down the data and plotted it up. And yes, there is a good match between what is happening at the moment and the beginning of the Maunder. Not too much emphasis should be put into reading sunspots though. They are a second order derivative phenomenon from whatever processes drive the whole thing. As far as sunspots go, the convection zone of the Sun is like a big lava lamp, and we only see the spots that reach the surface. The F 10.7 flux is good but that tends to bottom some time after solar minimum.
    That TSI log variance plot looks like it could be the most accurate early indicator of month of minimum. Why is month of minimum important? Because every day’s delay in the transition to the new cycle makes that cycle 0.002 degrees C cooler for the mid-latitudes. The days add up.
    When I started out in this field in 2005, the range of Solar Cycle 24 predictions was from 45 to 190 in amplitude. There is a 2 degree C difference in climate from the low to the high. The whole climate science community was oblivious to this. It is not as if the people making the predictions were all crackpots. They all thought they had good science. But some were going to be right and some wrong, and the difference is 2 degrees C, with big real world consequences. That is what got me started down this whole path.
    Thankfully there is more interest in the solar – climate connection now, even to the extent of having solar physicists mounting a rearguard action of pre-emptive denial. My big breakthrough was finding that obscure paper from the Armagh Obersvatory which plotted up their 300 year temperature history in terms of Friis-Christianson and Lassen theory (solar cycle length is more important than amplitude). I thought “Let’s plot up all the other long term temperature records.”, and sure enough, some of them have good correlations, including the big ones – CET, de Bilt. It works in the northeast of the US also. The New England states have embraced global warming alarmism with self-flagellating taxes, and they are going to get the cooling really bad.

  111. Pamela Gray (09:43:15) :
    I am still amazed at how few here focus on what our own highly variable atmosphere is capable of producing regarding long term trends. Here we sit on a globe that has far greater potential in terms of mechanisms for global cooling and warming that are completely natural, cyclic, solidly based in physics, and defendable. Yet we continue to focus on the minutia of “unknown” solar and barycenter mechanisms just waiting to be discovered and explained. It is the age old argument between “the first encountered pathology” and “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” found in medical dialogue.
    Pamela Gray,
    I’m still amazed at the resistance to certain things. Especially when certain governmental organizations within the USA have had a subpar record at forecastings things from well out. And I’m not referring to the solar cycle.
    It’s well known amongst those that long range forecast for a living, like those within the energy field, that the CPC and CDC, are behind the curve when it comes to cutting edge techniques and this is why they are always the last one to get on board. Especially with the ENSO.
    And their long range seasonal outlooks are always tilted toward decadal climo and they seem to always have a tough time forecasting our upcoming winter pattern when there is no La Nina or El Nino around.
    So I would hope that we would all agree that it is very important to accurately forecast things and an indivduals past record, or even a group – company, should be considered when people try to dismiss possible relationships over the lack of us currently understanding things at this point and time.

  112. REPLY:(08:14:26) Great, locusts from the sun. One more of the plages of Pharaoh to worry about 😉 – Anthony
    Pharaonic plages.
    Going from Gilbert and Sullivan to Verdi, all on one thread. Match that, Gavin.

  113. Just read a book on the famous E=mc^2. Einstien’s 1905 “Special Relativity” paper was NOT peer reviewed. Merely reviewed by the editors of the journal it was presented in.

    Well, yeah, but the editor who “merely” reviewed it was Max Planck …

  114. Just read a book on the famous E=mc^2. Einstien’s 1905 “Special Relativity” paper was NOT peer reviewed. Merely reviewed by the editors of the journal it was presented in.
    (snip)
    It does give one pause about the current “fetish” with peer review.

    Let me expand on my previous comment a bit. Max Planck was (and is) one of the giants of physics. Einstein’s first paper, on the photoelectric effect, built on ideas earlier put forward by Planck. Einstein knew who edited the journal. Planck (nor any leading physicist of the day) wouldn’t *need* references or citations. Physics was very small at the time (a couple of hundred practitioners worldwide, perhaps? Robert Rhodes put forward a figure on that order in his Making of the Atomic Bomb).
    So, true, peer review wasn’t formalized as it is today. That doesn’t mean that there was no peer review, it’s hard to imagine a tougher jury than Max Planck.
    An analogy: small companies have internal review and decision making processes that typically are far more informal than you find in large companies. As they grow, processes tend to become formalized. That doesn’t mean that the company had no review process when it was small.
    Likewise, the review process in physics was more informal when physics was being conducted by a small number of physicists who were, for the most part, personally acquainted with each other. If a paper appeared in Annalen der Physik, they knew it had been scrutinized by one or more leading German physicists, even if the process wasn’t formalized. Working physicists at the leading edge were intimately familiar with *all* of the important papers, thus the need for cites and references wasn’t strictly enforced.
    Today, physics and other fields of science are so huge that it’s really impossible for any one person to become expert in all of the interesting research questions and areas, much less the literature. You don’t need a library index if your library only has a few dozen books, likewise physicists didn’t need explicit pointers to published work when the number of relevant papers in a particular specialty numbered in the dozens rather than the thousands.
    To imagine that Annalen der Physik – leading physics journal of the day – would randomly publish papers without critical peer review, just because it was done informally back then – is simply wrong.

  115. On the subject of the associated article we can see simply by looking at the rise and fall of the sequence of sunspot cycles that we are in for a few weak cycles.
    The heliomagnetic field is lower now than anytime in the last 50 years of modern measurement and the geomagnetic field is lower than measured in a couple of centuries or since the Dalton. This means the general rise in albedo to a level elevated above last century is likely to continue thru cycle 26.
    Beside the correlation of large volcanic eruptions (the Dalton saw Laki, Soufriere, Mayon and Tambora) the New Madrid earthquake of 1812 tossed the water from the Ohio River bed.

  116. David,
    “The New England states have embraced global warming alarmism with self-flagellating taxes, and they are going to get the cooling really bad.”
    On the bright side, when everybody here is freezing their butts off, we can get the state to use the taxes raised to buy us cheap Venezuelan oil from Uncle Hugo to show what a great guy he is. Joe Kennedy will have a job again.

  117. David Archibald (15:46:12) :
    My big breakthrough was finding that obscure paper from the Armagh Obersvatory which plotted up their 300 year temperature history in terms of Friis-Christianson and Lassen theory (solar cycle length is more important than amplitude).
    David
    The “obscure paper” you refer to is the Butler & Johnson paper, and I’m fairly sure they never intended the ‘casual’ correlation (Cycle Length v Temp) demonstrated in the paper to be used quite as literally as you have done. The next data point on the B&J plot would be the mean temperatures for the SC23/SC24 minimum. Assuming 2008 is the year of the minimum, the temperature value will be the mean annual temperature for the period 2003-2013 (i.e. 11-year mean centred on minimum). Now we already know the temperatures for the first 6 years of that period and unless there is an unprecedented cooling in Armagh, the cycle length/temperature relationship is going to break down in spectacular fashion.

  118. gary gulrud (16:41:54) :
    the geomagnetic field is lower than measured in a couple of centuries or since the Dalton.
    You have to be a wee bit more precise. The geomagnetic field itself has been decreasing for two thousand years [e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/CosmicRays-GeoDipole.jpg ]. This graph could actually give food for thought for the cosmic-ray/climate crowd, because the main reason for long-term changes of cosmic rays is not the Sun, but the Earth’s main dipole field.
    Geomagnetic activity is caused by the solar wind and is now down to where it was around 1901-02 [e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/IHV-1844-2008.png ] telling us that the solar wind is also down to the same level.

  119. OT of sorts
    After reading a number of threads and articles on the role of the sun on climate change, I have personally concluded that that role is entirely too speculative. Moreover, it isn’t necessary to define an alternate source of climate change to demonstrate that CO2 ain’t it.
    Such alternatives do need MUCH more research.
    I would very much prefer to see threads that demonstrate the fallacies associated with AGW. One that comes immediately to mind is the “Revelle Factor”, the unsubstantiated proposition of a buffer factor causing CO2 to remain in the atmosphere for 50+ years.
    Ref: http://www.co2web.info/ESEF3VO2.htm

  120. John Peter–
    “It is clear that the 2009 line is moving ever so slowly closer to the 1979-2000 average. If the ice is really so thin as they infer why is it so slow to thaw? Just a question from a layman.”
    Because they are measuring “extent”, or area, which tells you nothing about ice depth. So when it starts to melt extent is a trailing indicator. . . there’s a lot, and then suddenly it falls off a cliff as all that 2″ ice becomes open water. Take a look at the link below, noting the progression of the 2008 line, which was famous for the “first year ice” (i.e. thinner ice) phenmenon. Note how for much of April and May that 2008 was significantly above everything but 2003, and then in early June it started “falling off the cliff”. That’s ice that was thinner (but in greater area) than those previous years suddenly turning to open water.
    This is why both during a multi-year warming trend and a multi-year cooling tend there are effects in the current year from at least 2-3 (and maybe more) years previous impacting the current year extent in spring-summer.
    Personally, I expect to still see some some impact in June-Sep 2009 from 2007-2008. I think 2009 won’t “fall off the cliff” as severely as 2008 in June-Sept, but it will to a degree. I’m hoping for a 2009 minimum around the 2005 line, and anything higher than that is all gravy in my book. Now, if that comes true, and 2010 is another cool year, I think that’s when the AGWers will really be in a pickle trying to keep the Arctic Ice alarmism going as the minimum is likely to be well above the long-term trend, and the highest we’ve seen in many years as the impact of the recent low in 2007 will be even further minimized.

  121. Gilbert (17:41:23) :
    Are you kidding?. All that CO2 cr… has been invented just to control society, it is just one of the tools used to that purpose. It has nothing to do with anything real whatsoever. Summarizing: In the short term your pockets will realize it even before you, then, with time, if they succeed, (wich I hope this time they won´t, as before, in the french revolution) you will begin to notice around you a kind of resemblance with a bee hive or an ant´s hill; then you´ll know you are by then in that “Brave New World” those “superior minds” thought for you and your descendants.

  122. Abstract
    —The problem of the use of such cosmogenic nuclides as14C and 10Be in natural archives for reconstruction of both the solar activity and the cosmic-ray intensity is discussed. The climate-dependent processes of the formation, transport, and deposition of these nuclides to Earth’s archives must be taken into account for
    adequate processing of information derived from such archives.
    “A comparison of the data series on the 10Be and 14C concentrations in Greenland and Antarctic ice and in tree rings, respectively, led to the conclusion that
    these radionuclides are useless for retrieving the time histories of galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-activity parameters. This conclusion is analyzed below.
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/9j5p5k4130014184/fulltext.pdf?page=1

  123. And almost on cue, the MSM, in the form of the Associated Press, puts out a “warning” that the “Sunspot cycle [is] beginning to rise.”
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090509/ap_on_sc/us_sci_space_weather_1
    “It’s time for the sun to move into a busier period for sunspots, and while forecasters expect a relatively mild outbreak by historical standards, one major solar storm can cause havoc with satellites and electrical systems here.”
    And the best part:
    “A preliminary forecast issued in 2007 was split over the outlook for the upcoming cycle, [Doug] Biesecker [of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] said the researchers have now reached consensus. ”
    Whew, THAT’s a relief.

  124. evanmjones (07:08:55) :
    It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum
    (I wanted to be plainer but I couldn’t find a synonym)
    And thanks to modern media it’s not believed by anyone
    The sun has done a bunk and we will freeze for a millennium
    And so I’ll see you later; I am off for the equator
    For is the very model of a modern Major-minimum

    Very nice, I like it …but do you suppose Gilbert is rolling over in his grave?

  125. F. Ross: “do you suppose Gilbert is rolling over in his grave?”
    As he replied when asked if Sullivan was still composing: “No, Madam, he’s decomposing.”
    But I’m sure Gilbert could write a lovely satire on the AGW empire if he were still alive.

  126. Just Want Truth… (13:22:39) :
    Perr-reviewed (for those who feel peer-review is a prerequisite, tough I do believe E=mc2 was never peer reviewed before publication 😉 )
    “…..a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades…. It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
    –Boris Komitov, Institute of Astronomy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
    &
    –Vladimir Kaftan, Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Aerial Surveying and Cartography, Federal Agency of Geodesy and Cartography, Moscow, Russia
    http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=288314
    and
    http://www.astro.bas.bg/AIJ/issues/n9/BKomitov.pdf

    Thanks for the referenced paper, it looks to support Usoskin & Solanki’s work and uses the “Schove Series” of solar reconstructions from approx AD300 – AD2000. The papers outcome supports a 200 year cycle of solar downturns.
    How is the “Schove Series” sunspot reconstruction viewed by popular science?

  127. “Mark Hugoson (13:39:06) : Just read a book on the famous E=mc^2. Einstien’s 1905 “Special Relativity” paper was NOT peer reviewed.”
    What’s the name of the book?
    Most scientists who could have been assigned review to Albert Einstein’s work before approval for publication would not have understood it. In fact some thought he was insane. There was even one scientist who said Einstein should literally be killed. Conferences were held to make sure the scientists who thought his work was bizarre could make their opinions very public. Einstein actually attended some of these conferences and sat in the audience.
    Who would ever think that his awesome ideas would be greeted like that!
    You can read Michio Kaku’s book “Einstein’s Cosmos” for one reference to what I am saying.

  128. Alan Wilkinson (20:22:15) :
    As he replied when asked if Sullivan was still composing: “No, Madam, he’s decomposing.”
    But I’m sure Gilbert could write a lovely satire on the AGW empire if he were still alive.

    That would be poetry to my nearly deaf ears!

  129. “Geoff Sharp (20:43:19) : Thanks for the referenced paper”
    I always try to put references to everything. I wish everyone would put links to everything they talk about—when applicable.
    One thought I’ve had about the sun and it’s influence on weather/climate is that the Russians seem to have it as a priority — they don’t have co2 as the priority. They beat us in to space with Sputnik and they’re beating us now in climate study.

  130. Leif Svalgaard (09:08:34) :
    kim (05:35:07) :
    In one thread I speculated that if the sunspots go away, and if there aren’t any other changes in the known manifestations of the solar dynamic, then …
    Perhaps the problem lies in ‘go away’. If the magnetic field of the spot is 1510 Gauss the spot is visible and all the ‘other manifestations’ have a certain set of values. If the magnetic field is 1490 Gauss, all the ‘other manifestations’ have a certain set of values that are just slightly smaller [or for your hypothetical case not even smaller] than for the 1510 Gauss case, but the sunspot is no longer visible [has ‘gone away’].

    That is fine with the exposition between visible and non visible. The truth is that during this year that I have been checking SOHO there are very few manifestations in any of the plots,not only the ones that should be seen as visible too. The sun is really quiet with an occasional blip, on the back burner, on all plots.
    What limits does the quietness put on the magnetic field of the unseen by all , according to your above exposition, disturbances?
    In a boiling pot if the temperature is lowered to no big bubbles there are the tiny tiny ones trying to coalesce and become big. Could there be such a discontinuity in the magnetic manifestations?
    Or does your statement mean that the magnetic fields are like a structural backbone irrespective of temperatures of the plasma we depend on to measure with our instruments?

  131. “….increased solar irradiance warms Earth’s oceans, which then triggers emission large amounts carbon dioxide into atmosphere. So common view man’s industrial activity deciding factor global warming has emerged misinterpretation cause effect relations….. Ascribing ‘greenhouse’ effect properties to the Earth’s atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated. Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away.”
    –Habibullo Abdussamatov
    -Head, space research laboratory, Russian Academies of Sciences’ Pulkovo Observatory
    -Project head, astrometry project, being conducted on the Russian 1/2 of the International Space Station
    http://urban-renaissance.org/urbanren/index.cfm?DSP=content&ContentID=16967

  132. “Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Man\rquote s influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.”
    –Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin
    -Merited Scientist of Russia
    -fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences
    -staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute

  133. “If industrial pollution with carbon dioxide keeps at its present-day 5-7 billion metric tons a year, it will not change global temperatures up to the year 2100. The change will be too small for humans to feel even if the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions doubles.”
    –Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin

  134. “Temperature changes periodically occur in different parts of the planet. However, it is not an irreversible process. Nature controls itself…. All that global (extreme) cold and (extreme) heat has been made up by American film directors.”
    -Aleksei Babushkin
    -Dean of the Department of Physics of the Ural State University, Aleksei, Russia

  135. anna v (21:53:21) :
    What limits does the quietness put on the magnetic field of the unseen by all, according to your above exposition, disturbances?
    Or does your statement mean that the magnetic fields are like a structural backbone irrespective of temperatures of the plasma we depend on to measure with our instruments?

    I’m not quite sure what you mean. kim asked what would happen if ALL manifestations stayed the same and the spots just happened to be invisible. My answer was meant to convey the message that it is not the visibility per se that controls anything, but ALL the other manifestations that have effects, and if they stayed the same, the effects would be the same. Somewhat trivial conclusion, but perhaps I misunderstood her question.
    Trying to make sense of your question: the temperature of the quiet Sun is absolutely constant to the very limits of our measurements. The magnetic field is generated at some depth where the temperature is much higher than the 6000C we see at the surface. Inside the Sun, the plasma beta is much higher than 1 and the movements of the plasma drag the field with it and control its structure. The temperature has no influence on how we measure the field. Again, I don’t quite catch your drift, as they say…

  136. Leif,
    I hope you take time to read Michio Kaku’s books. “Einstein’s Cosmos” is an entertaining read.
    Unfortunately Michio Kaku is an AGW believer now… but all isn’t said and done yet!

  137. Leif Svalgaard (22:19:58) :
    Thanks for he interest in Michio Kaku ;). He says “Let’s hope that it’s a dud…”
    But I think you’re being sarcastic—am I right?
    I see you are trying to associate him with the Mayan calendar—cheap shot, huh.

  138. Leif Svalgaard (22:19:58) :
    Please make the effort to take the lifetime body of Michio Kau’s work in to account and not attempt to make him look squirrely by taking this one moment of his life out of it’s context.
    You do know that doing these sort of things affects how people view you?

  139. Just Want Truth… (23:03:13) :
    Huh, looks like Michio Kaku isn’t alone on the sun/2012 thing you bring up Leif
    This is not about 2012, but about ‘we have made a mistake, underestimated some variable by a factor of 20, very large cycle coming, disasters left and right’
    Where is the cheap shot? Just trying to establish his credibility on the solar cycle… And, in my book, about science in general…

  140. Leif Svalgaard (22:33:18) :
    . Again, I don’t quite catch your drift, as they say…
    When some of us were very young and studious scientific lecture attendants, there was an Italian lady professor, whose name I do not recall because we nick named her “my questiiion iiis”, which was followed by a long not understandable question. So I am in the same position at late age :).
    I think you have replied.
    The plots we see in SOHO are snapshots of different temperatures depending on the type of molecule whose excitations are used to produce them. Since nothing is seen in any of them while you insist that the underlying mechanisms are still working I was wondering if there is a temperature dependence of the underlying mechanism of producing magnetic fields, to which you have replied in the negative.
    I am also wondering whether the fact that we do not see these disturbances in the outer layers of the plasma means that there is a diminution in the field strength and how much. Your example gave very small percentages, and I was wondering if it is comparable to the diminution of TSI.

  141. Just Want Truth… (00:01:06) :
    The cheap shot is associating Michio Kaku with 2012 in the Mayan calendar.
    But you did that. My focus was on his solar cycle ‘mistake’ and boing-iong-iong. No Mayans in my thoughts. So the cheap shot was to accuse me of introducing the Mayan question.

  142. anna v (23:52:19) :
    I am also wondering whether the fact that we do not see these disturbances in the outer layers of the plasma
    It is simpler than that. Take a look at the intensitygrams from Mt. Wilson: http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/intro.html
    In the green (5250) the plage [which has field strength somewhat less than 1500 Gauss] looks bright. In the yellow (5896) the plage looks dark. Mix the two colors [where most of the white light comes from] and you see nothing, but everything is still there: the magnetic field, the UV, the influence on TSI, the contribution to F10.7, etc. The active region [and all its attendant effects] has not gone away, yet it is invisible.

  143. Geoff Sharp (20:43:19) :
    Thanks for the referenced paper, it looks to support Usoskin & Solanki’s work and uses the “Schove Series” of solar reconstructions from approx AD300 – AD2000. The papers outcome supports a 200 year cycle of solar downturns.
    How is the “Schove Series” sunspot reconstruction viewed by popular science?

    Has there ever been studies to compare the Usoskin/Solanki/INTCAL98 data with Schove’s work?

  144. “Leif Svalgaard (00:27:43) : The cheap shot is associating Michio Kaku with 2012 in the Mayan calendar. But you did that.”
    Oh, I did…
    Actually the link you posted talks about it. So innocent you are now of that fact.

  145. Leif Svalgaard (00:27:43) :
    Maybe you need a vacation Leif.
    Watch this. Maybe it will cheer you up.

  146. Leif Svalgaard (00:27:43) :
    Did you see the Meryl Streep movie “Doubt”? The story of the feathers and the imagery of leaves in the wind in it? Your talk of Piers Corbyn, The Farmer Almanac, and Michio Kaku put me in mind of that movie.
    http://www.doubt-themovie.com/
    I learned a lot today.

  147. Richard Sharpe (09:09:23) (and others):
    …teeny-weeny fluctuations in TSI… I’m sure this has been covered before. The temperate of the Earth is NOT ~14C. It’s ~287K. If there was no sun the temperature of the Earth would be the same as the temperature of the universe which is ~2.7K, ignoring internal heating.
    So a TSI variance of 0.2%, ceteris paribus, gives a temperature change of (287 – 2.7) * 0.002 = 0.5686C. And that’s quite a lot.

  148. “these radionuclides are useless for retrieving the time histories of galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-activity parameters”
    I.e., useless for absolute dating, like that attempted here by our docent. Individual cycles are too brief, but groupings of some few?

  149. “You have to be a wee bit more precise.”
    Sorry, that was badly worded. Hopefully all are aware of the Halstatt cycle, particularly for its import to 14C dating.
    The point is we can expect a higher albedo, apart from volcanism, in coming years, than prevalent during the Dalton.
    Sheilds are down Cap’n!

  150. “Assuming 2008 is the year of the minimum, the temperature value will be the mean annual temperature for the period 2003-2013 (i.e. 11-year mean centred on minimum).”
    2009 will certainly be the year of minimum. Your mean will be 14 years, 2001-2015. Don’t center on features of a solar cycle, they’re not symmetric with respect to time.

  151. Leif Svalgaard (14:42:37) :
    Assuming this is observations……
    Yes indeed, they are observations. There are monthly averaged data available from 1850 for Oxfordshire area, sunshine hours from 1929. I have an xls file I could email if you whish , but I doubt that could be of any use.

  152. DJ: Regarding this post you made yesterday, what prediction are you referring to ? Can you give me a link ? Are you referring to David Archibald ?
    ” DJ (14:15:23) :
    Only one month to go until we verify David’s prediction made last year of a massive global cooling. On current numbers it will be – perhaps – the worst forecast in climate history.
    PS we aren’t vetting are we?”
    Many thanks.

  153. Leif 22:33:18
    Your answer was helpful, but was *not quite to the question that I inelegantly asked. What I’m asking is if the spots become invisible, and all the other known manifestations of the dynamo remain unchanged, and there are no other confounding effects like volcanos or anthropogenic aerosols, what will be the explanation if the earth cools? I realize that you can’t answer that, but I’ve spent a lot of time trying to get you to speculate beyond the facts, so far without success. Won’t you speculate this time?
    I’m guessing that such speculation might include 1. co-incidence, 2. some unexplained effect of invisible spots, 3. Some unknown manifestation of the solar dynamo.
    ==============================================

  154. AlanG (02:19:53) :
    So a TSI variance of 0.2%, ceteris paribus, gives a temperature change of (287 – 2.7) * 0.002 = 0.5686C. And that’s quite a lot.
    Actually, the percentage temperature change is one quarter of the TSI change, so dT = 287*0.2/4/100 = 0.14K, not quite a lot.

  155. Global cooling and Northern Latitude Wine Production
    Around some fantastic wines at a close friend’s home last night, I shared some of the theory and predictions behind David Archiblad’s “Low Sunspot activity= Global Cooling” idea.[We reside in Michigan].
    My buddy, one of the most expert individuals I know of on the topic of growing wines in Michigan as well as around the rest of the wine-growing world, indicated that if there were any significant decrease[ two weeks, three weeks ?] in our growing season, wine production would be dead.My two favorites, reds like Cabernet Sauvignon and Red Zinfandel, would be especially vulnerable.
    Out of concern for this horrid implication of Global Cooling and to ease my pain, I helped myself to another pour of a fantastic 1999 Chateauneuf du Pape.
    His Michigan wine blog can be found here:
    http://www.michwine.com/
    Here is one of his reports on how the cold Mich weather was impacting some of the Northern Mich vineyards:
    “MARCH 7 — Northern Michigan vineyard owners close to the water are breathing sighs of relief that a frozen-over Grand Traverse Bay caused only limited damage. But one early report suggests that those further inland may face significant losses to their 2009 crops……..
    http://www.michwine.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=203&Itemid=53
    Do we have any info regarding the impact of the Little Ice Age on European wine production ? Do we have any info regarding any grape vine diseases which are especially deadly in cooler weather ? Does anyone think this is a good time to buy Bordeaux futures ?

  156. kim 06:50:58
    Leif, I believe that we are heading for a couple of decades of cooling from the cooling phase of the PDO. Let me amend my question above to ask what will be the explanation for cooling during a spotless time that extends into the next expected warming phase of the PDO. Now not only am I asking you to speculate, but for an even longer term. What fun!
    ==============================================

  157. Both plages so far…
    An interesting point was put forward on one of the solarcycle24.com discussions, that perhaps during the Maunder and Dalton minima the same situation was being experienced; relatively large active areas, releasing flares and CMES but just no visible spots had formed. This is an interesting phenomenon, most folks really thought that these two areas would finally bring the minimum to an end but the weekend is almost over and still the sunspot count is zero… Two corpses are floating across the sun’s surface, perhaps they will wake up soon…

  158. Adolfo Giurfa (19:04:55) :
    Are you kidding?. All that CO2 cr… has been invented just to control society
    Actually, all that has been apparent ever since the New Left found out that a minnow could be used to block industrial development. The rest is history.

  159. Leif Svalgaard (17:48:04) :

    John Finn (17:01:36) :
    unless there is an unprecedented cooling in Armagh, the cycle length/temperature relationship is going to break down in spectacular fashion.


    It never was any good to begin with:
    You’re right – but even David’s carefully selected records are not playing ball now.

  160. Kim, if the PDO experiences an El Nino, the weather pattern variation affects are broadly predictable but mitigated on the strength, extent, and duration of the event. In warm/cool phases of the PDO, it isn’t that one or the other (La Nina vs El Nino) is excluded from occurring, it is that one predominates over the other along various measures: strength, extent, duration, predominance, occurrence, etc. Based on trade wind measures, and other oceanic oscillations currently in gear elsewhere, the PDO will likely remain in its cool phase as the predominate description. If an El Nino occurs during this cool phase, regional weather changes will result but the overall cool pattern will remain intact until such a time as the PDO flips to its warm phase, meaning the trade winds die down and stay that way, El Nino’s predominate, and surface waters warm where they stand.
    In the cool phase of the PDO, the jet stream stays in a northern and loopy position, mixing Arctic air and left over warm ocean moisture together creating the conditions necessary for strong pressure gradients and warm/cold weather fronts colliding with each other and/or following on each others tail across the northern parts of the globe. In other words, warming during a quiet Sun is easily explained by natural conditions here on Earth.

  161. Lee Kington (04:44:10) :
    So much? Or once? the video. Anything else that may have appeared off topic was in response to Leif Svalgaard. If off topic occurred it was only as a response to his off topic–if indeed the comments were off the topic of the sun and its cycles. Please review the comments more closely.

  162. kim (07:02:37) :
    Let me amend my question above to ask what will be the explanation for cooling during a spotless time that extends into the next expected warming phase of the PDO.
    If solar activity has little to do with weather and climate, the question is kind of a non-issue, isn’t it?
    Perhaps that is the simplest answer.
    Alex (07:06:25) :
    Both plages so far…
    An interesting point was put forward on one of the solarcycle24.com discussions, that perhaps during the Maunder and Dalton minima the same situation was being experienced; relatively large active areas, releasing flares and CMES but just no visible spots had formed.

    We know that the solar dynamo was operating during the Maunder Minimum and that there was an interplanetary magnetic field and modulation of cosmic rays and all that, just as now.
    Livingston and Penn [see the main posting on that on the blog] have measured magnetic fields and temperatures of sunspots for many years now and find that the spots are getting warmer [and slightly less magnetic]. Warmer spots have less contrast with the surrounding surface and are harder to see. At a certain magnetic field strength [1500 Gauss] the spots are still there but are invisible. This is a possible [albeit speculative] explanation for the spotless Maunder minimum and the paucity of spots now. Needless to say L&P have a hard times getting their work published and appreciated for all the usual reasons.
    In particular, if L&P are correct the concept of a Grand Minimum fades away, with all the upsetting consequences for those who depend on Grand Minima for their various correlations, e.g. LIA.

  163. Just Want Truth… (08:23:47) :
    Anything else that may have appeared off topic was in response to Leif Svalgaard.
    A good rule if one is annoyed is: “don’t feed the troll”.
    Try to follow that.

  164. There is one thing that will help us through this period we are entering.
    Lot’s of cheap fossil fuels! Off Shore underwater drilling to tap into the methane deposits just off the continental shelves (technology/research needed). You know the ones that global warming was supposed to release 😀
    Then again there is CLEAN COAL … where, in relative terms, only the life giving gas CO2 is released.
    Maybe it will be enough to keep us from entering another period where the cold oceans sequestered so much CO2 (to limestone) it put terrestrial life under severe stress … something mentioned in the pro AGW, “Earth, the Biography”. … at least above the 250 ppm level before the Industrial Revolution where photosynthesis starts to shut down.

  165. I’ve posted this plot before. It shows grape harvest time and temperature (t back to 1800s and grape to 1300s)
    Grapes are sensitive to temperatures, water,co2(?!) during the growing season April to August. Temperatures are therefore plotted only over this season.
    You will note that late grape (upwards) == low temps (downwards)
    You will note there is possibly the MWP showing at the start of the plot but that there is very little (none) LIA evidence present.
    This could of course be because the LIA only occurred in winter == less significant to grapes
    http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8184/pinotnoirswissoxdihad.jpg
    I have also provided this plot of FFT of temperatures which show no significant solar cycle period of 11 years. Solar variability does not significantly influence temperature (Leif has similar plots on his site)
    What are the magic ethereal waves emanated by the sun that we are not measuring and that do not change in tune with the TSI/SSN but that affect temperature????
    http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5025/cetssnavgfft.jpg
    please note that the records are not long enough to extract significant info for periods longer than about 40years.

  166. gary gulrud (05:27:03) :

    “Assuming 2008 is the year of the minimum, the temperature value will be the mean annual temperature for the period 2003-2013 (i.e. 11-year mean centred on minimum).”

    2009 will certainly be the year of minimum. Your mean will be 14 years, 2001-2015. Don’t center on features of a solar cycle, they’re not symmetric with respect to time.
    I’m just using the method employed by Butler & Johnson. The same method, I assume, that David Archibald is using to predict the 2 degree decline in temperatures over “the next few years”. It doesn’t matter much anyway. There’s no chance that the claimed SCL/temp relationship will hold.

  167. Leif, 08:25:06
    Heh, thanks for not speculating. It really does help keep what you have to say pretty solid. ::grin::
    =============================================

  168. bill 09:15:59
    There is a study that correlates aurorae with ancient Nile River levels.
    ==========================================


  169. http://urban-renaissance.org/urbanren/index.cfm?DSP=content&ContentID=16967
    Mars has global warming, but without greenhouse without participation Martians,” he told me. “These parallel global warmings – observed simultaneously on Mars on Earth – can only straightline consequence effect one same factor: a long-time change solar irradiance.”

    I wonder if there is any hard evidence available supporting such statements, that global warming has been observed on Mars? I have seen it mentioned several times, but never seen any real data for it. Any links?

  170. Leif Svalgaard (08:25:06) :
    “In particular, if L&P are correct the concept of a Grand Minimum fades away, with all the upsetting consequences for those who depend on Grand Minima for their various correlations, e.g. LIA.”
    The so-called ‘Grand minimum’ may fade away, but the ‘Visible Sunspot Grand minimum’ won’t!! Unless the sunspot data is edited or “corrected”!
    But yes, I understand what you mean.
    Are there any links to any recent L&P papers available online?

  171. ” Leif Svalgaard (09:04:10) : A good rule if one is annoyed is: “don’t feed the troll”. ”
    Are you saying you were being the troll? I didn’t quite follow.

  172. gary gulrud (05:04:41) :
    “these radionuclides are useless for retrieving the time histories of galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-activity parameters”
    I.e., useless for absolute dating, like that attempted here by our docent. Individual cycles are too brief, but groupings of some few?
    Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, 2009, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 378–380.
    Solar Activity over Last Ten Thousand Years Based on the Data
    Of 10Be and14C Cosmogeneous Isotopes
    S. S. Vasiliev and V. A. Dergachev
    Abstract
    —The data on the 10Be accumulation rate in Greenland glacier (GRIP project) are discussed. Spectral analysis of the data over the last 9000 years is carried out. The spectral line intensity in the low-frequency range (periods from 100 to 1000 years) is much higher (approximately by a factor of 20), than in the frequency range
    of the 11-year solar activity cycle. This fact suggests that the processes responsible for the variations in the10 Be production rate with a time scale of 100–1000 years significantly differ from those determining the 11-year cyclicity of solar activity
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/29424621615w0272/fulltext.pdf?page=1
    Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, 2009, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 375–377.
    Effect of Long-Term Variability of Galactic Cosmic Ray Fluxes
    on Climatic Parameters
    O. M. Raspopov , V. A. Dergachev , P. B. Dmitriev, and E. G. Guskova
    Abstract
    —Using of 200-year variations in solar activity and geomagnetic dipole changes in the time interval to 100000 years ago it is shown geophysical parameters effectively influence climate change. This effect is realized through modulation of the intensity of galactic cosmic ray fluxes penetrating the atmosphere.
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/978wt4l6w5h1w433/fulltext.pdf?page=1

  173. More on volcanic activity and the Little Ice Age, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minimum:
    Disaster goes global: the eruption in 1600 of a seemingly quiet volcano in Peru changed global climate and triggered famine as far away as Russia.
    Since 1601, there have been five category 6 eruptions, including Laki (1783), Krakatau (1883) and Pinatubo (1991). However, none of these events spawned adverse societal effects on a global scale as Huaynaputina did. In part, Huaynaputina’s sulfur-rich plume could have rendered the peak’s eruption inordinately powerful.
    Several studies indicate that the sulfur dioxide emissions from Huaynaputina were roughly comparable to those of Tambora. Therefore, says Verosub, the climatological cconsequences of the two volcanoes should be similar. Indeed, the chilling effects of Huaynaputina’s eruption in 1600 were substantial and were felt worldwide, he and Lippman report in the April 8 Eos.
    Climate at the time could have played a role as well, says Verosub: In 1600, the world was in the midst Adv. 1. in the midst – the middle or central part or point; “in the midst of the forest”; “could he walk out in the midst of his piece?”
    midmost of the Little Ice Age, typified by harsh winters, springs and summers much cooler and wetter than normal, and shorter-than-average growing seasons. A large volcanic eruption during that period would have depressed average temperatures even further–adding insult to injury, as it were.
    The demographics of the era also played a role, Dunning speculates. During the 1500s, the population in many regions had doubled, and as the century progressed, the proportion of young males had grown even faster. As a result, many of the younger sons of the late 1500s ended up not receiving their fathers’ land, jobs or titles, producing what Dunning terms “a surplus population of angry young men.” And in general, food production wasn’t keeping up with population growth.
    By the 1590s, Dunning notes, many parts of the world were experiencing a wave of starvations, rebellions and unrest. Then, he adds, “at this most excruciating moment, this other thing comes along to take things where they’d never gone before.” None of the countries of early modern Europe The early modern period is a term used by historians to refer to the period in Western Europe and its first colonies which spans the two centuries between the Middle Ages and the Industrial Revolution. were equipped to deal with such crises, Dunning says.
    Is the situation any better today? Would modern technology and an increased global interconnectedness enable 21st century humans to better survive an immense, Earth-chilling eruption? Surprisingly, the answer to both questions may be no.
    In the past, Verosub notes, most of a society’s foodstuffs foodstuffs npl → comestibles mpl
    foodstuffs npl → denrées fpl alimentaires
    foodstuffs food npl → were grown locally and in wide variety, so not every crop required the full growing season to mature. Therefore, any event that shortened a region’s growing season didn’t necessarily doom the entire harvest. Staples that formed the bulk of the diet were, for the most part, homegrown.
    Today, on the other hand, most large-scale agricultural production focuses on a single crop that’s chosen to take full advantage of a region’s climate in order to realize maximum output–a severe disadvantage if the growing season is significantly trimmed by, say, a volcanic eruption.
    Not only were preindustrial pre·in·dus·tri·al
    adj.
    Of, relating to, or being a society or an economic system that is not or has not yet become industrialized.
    preindustrial
    Adjective
    of a time before the mechanization of industry farming practices possibly more resilient to total agricultural failure, people then “were used to living on the margin,” Dunning says. “Everybody knew hunger … and the idea that you should plan for a bad year was ingrained in these societies.”
    Today, by comparison, the world’s surplus food supply would last only about 90 days, a number that’s steadily dropping as population increases. Additional pressure on food, water and other resources in some nations, such as China, stem from a rapidly increasing standard of living and the resulting changes in dietary preferences (SN: 1/19/08, p. 36).
    Humans are consuming an ever-increasing fraction of the biological productivity at the base of Earth’s food chain, in some regions almost two-thirds of the biomass that would be available if humans weren’t clearing forests, farming or otherwise occupying the land (SN: 10/13/07, p. 235). Rising population, plus the shift in some areas to divert agricultural production to produce inedible commodities such as ethanol, has led many to suggest a modern-day food crisis is at hand.
    “What happens if another major eruption happens today?” Verosub asks. “If we lower the growing season globally, are we looking at a food crisis? … We’ve got a really stressed system, and if we hit it hard, is it going to collapse? I think that’s worth thinking about.”
    Full story: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Disaster+goes+global:+the+eruption+in+1600+of+a+seemingly+quiet…-a0184482334
    Also read: http://niche.uwo.ca/node/1704

  174. Ron de Haan (16:35:34) :
    Came to many of those same conclusions myself and have mentioned it a time or two but it is like telling kids things … sometimes you just have to let them find out for themselves. You can tell them until you are blue in the face but you can’t make them “get it” until they “get it” on their own.
    For many, it will be when the event happens. As far as I know, no government on the planet has a plan on the shelf waiting to be enacted should something like a major volcano erupt that will impact a growing season. It is going to be a matter of everyone for themselves, I believe.

  175. Jim Papsdorf (06:59:43) :
    Erl Happ started his climate research because his vinyards in the SW of Western Australia were getting colder. At one point it looked like his southernmost vinyard would be getting too cold to grow shiraz.

  176. To Crosspatch regarding what will governments do in case of a major impact (presume reduction) to the growing season. I feel strongly that biofuels based on fuel crops is one of the most brutal, ineffective means of climate mitigation. Their greenhouse gas reduction is minimal yet their affect on grain commodity prices can be huge. I saw an aricle that had a totally different perspective however, he saw biofuels based on food crops as an insurance policy. If there was a sudden change in climat the limited growing seasons and crop production, you’d merely divert crop for fuel back into the food system. An interesting perspective.

  177. crosspatch (16:49:43) :
    Ron de Haan (16:35:34) :
    “Came to many of those same conclusions myself and have mentioned it a time or two but it is like telling kids things … sometimes you just have to let them find out for themselves. You can tell them until you are blue in the face but you can’t make them “get it” until they “get it” on their own.
    For many, it will be when the event happens. As far as I know, no government on the planet has a plan on the shelf waiting to be enacted should something like a major volcano erupt that will impact a growing season. It is going to be a matter of everyone for themselves, I believe”.
    crosspatch,
    We should increase food stocks under all circumstances.
    As you know, a single volcanic eruption could cause a lot of trouble.
    There are scientists stating that we are in for a big one at any moment in time.
    As I said before, we have been very lucky during the last century.

  178. It really pisses me off when an advertisement invites you to “voice your opinion”
    but when you do voice your opinion, your posting is simply ignored.
    This web site does not except skeptic comments.
    Welcome to our Future World. Totalitarianism Made by the UN.
    Global Climate Debate
    Voice your opinion before the UN Climate Change Conference 2009
    http://www.cop15.dk/blogs
    Wattsupwiththat?

  179. Thank you for those that commented using temperature numbers. I’m still not quite sure what the impact of a Maunder Minimum is, but it seems that some are still thinking of the range of 2.2C if it’s a Dalton Minimum, as stated in Mr. Archibald’s March 2009 paper. (good paper, thanks). The April paper on US agricultural production is enlightening also, discussing a 20% reduction in US agricultural production in the case of a Dalton like minimum.
    Ron de Haan your thoughts were interesting also. At first read, I thought that the potential negative outcomes on food production were a little far fetched. In the US we have a tremendous amount of land and water that could be used to grow food, that is either not used due to government rules or not productive enough to produce market competitive crops, but still productive enough to produce plenty of food. After all, land that supports grape vines can be replanted with potatoes at 6 C less. But on second thought, in the market place the value of food will be translated into money and while I living in the US will just pay more, people on the bottom of the food chain, in third world countries will starve again, like they did 30 years ago. Bummer that India developed nukes since then…

  180. John W. (07:05:05) :

    John Finn (04:26:11) :
    So I’ll ask again. Is there any evidence that temperatures during the Dalton minimum (1790-1820) were significantly lower than the 19th century average. Here’s the CET record for starters …

    Look at the graph you provided a link to. Think about what you’re seeing.
    I know what I’m seeing. Between 1780 and 1900, I see about 4 dips where the running mean drops to almost 1 deg below the 1961-1990 average.
    Dip 1 starts in the late 1770s and appears to bottom out in ~1784. However, the weak Dalton cycles didn’t start until 1798, i.e. ~20 years after the initial drop in temperatures.
    Dip 2 did actually occur in the Dalton period. It appears to bottom out in ~1816 or, to put it another way, one year after the 1815 Tombura eruption. It’s also worth noting that from ~1816 quite a strong warming trend kicks in – 7 years before the end of Solar Cycle 6
    Dip 3 comes well after the DM. This seems to be a generally cold period which spans the late 1830s/early 1840s. (PDO/AMO – possibly?)
    Dip 4 is actually more of a mini double dip which starts in the late 1870s and bottoms out in ~1885. If I were to speculate I’d go for PDO/AMO (i.e. ~30 years after 1840) followed by Krakatoa in 1883.
    There is nothing unusual about the Dalton Minimum in the CET record. Other records give a similar message, e.g. Armagh, Uppsala etc. Dalton Cooling is a myth.

  181. Doug (19:11:52) :
    … but it seems that some are still thinking of the range of 2.2C if it’s a Dalton Minimum, as stated in Mr. Archibald’s March 2009 paper. (good paper, thanks).
    Doug
    Why don’t you tell me what’s “good” about the “paper”, then I’ll tell you what’s bad about it.

  182. Geoff Sharp (00:41:29) :
    Geoff Sharp (20:43:19) :
    Has there ever been studies to compare the Usoskin/Solanki/INTCAL98 data with Schove’s work?

    No takers?….maybe there is something here then, I might dig and see what I can come up with. If this record is good it will be another nail in the coffin for the Babcock believers.
    Does anyone have a text file of Schoves work that can be entered into a spreadsheet?

  183. Doug (19:11:52) :
    It not a matter of replacing grapes with potatoes.
    We will lose a whole stretch of land in the North and the South as low temperatures
    make it impossible to plant crops.
    A colder climate in general will reduce agricultural output by 30%.
    On top of that there is an enhanced risk of crop loss due to extreme weather events.
    It’s about big scale crop loss due to extreme weather events like droughts, unseasonal frost, flooding, large scale hail fronts and crop disease.
    There is proof that during the Little Ice Age, there have been several extreme weather events, caused by the effects of a colder climate and volcanic emissions that have caused global loss of food crops.

  184. I think it is possible that the combination of a loopy jet stream creates weather extremes and causes some areas of the northern hemisphere to be extremely cold while just one state away it will be extremely hot along the same latitude. The lack of water vapor from colder oceans also sets up middle hemisphere drought. However, I believe this drought is part of the dust cycle that is necessary for the regeneration of iron depleted oceans and other cyclic uses. These various cycles may work together to be the source of the roller coaster energy required for oscillations.

  185. I am following all the discussions on proxies for temperature and magnetic status of the sun over time with interest and some trepidation – the latter because I have completed my own review but too late to incorporate fully the latest papers and discussions on whether the beryllium profiles give us as much a handle on things past as we once thought.
    But whatever the current state of that discussions – some things are clear to me:
    1. There is a large oceanographic literature that can correlate sea surface temperatures with various solar cycles – from 11, 22, 80 (Gleissberg) and 220 (de Vries); and a large literature also on long term cycles in stalagmites denoting the strength of the Asian monsoon; together with other paleo-ecological studies on lake sediments, ocean sediments, and tree rings – which show on spectral analysis, various solar cycles.
    2. So there is no question in my mind that there is a correlation between solar cycles and climate – and the Maunder Minimum in sunspot numbers coincides with changes in be-10 and with cooler temperatures, especially in the northern hemisphere.
    3. But we do not know the exact mechanism(s) – and there are several candidates: svensmark’s clouds; variable TSI and UV; shifts in the jetstream perhaps from UV effects on the polar vortez; and effects upon the global electric current. All of these may play a role.
    4. With the Dalton period – the CET data show a dip (but there was also a major volcano) – but I would not expect much of an impact for such a small period of solar quietness – with the Maunder there is time for cumulative impact over decades.
    5. Here is what I think: the best candidate is fluctuation in UV (this was researched at NASA by Drew Shindell who wrote several papers indicating that during the MM/LIA the jetstream was shifted southward by the UV effects on the polar vortex). And I think Svensmark’s clouds also play a role – the Sloan and Wolfendale ‘debunking’ was actually a confirmation of the effect but at about 25% of the observed changes (not that I think there methodology was very convincing).
    6. If it is a jetstream effect – and the last two years of jetstream shifts corroborates the theory – it will be cumulative – as the tracking determines the degree to which upper ocean heat stores are depleted (they are not homogenous but centred in the North Atlantic and North Pacific) or recharged – right now the Pacific gyre has been depleted and the Atlantic is on its last legs. The Maunder Minimum/LIA is thus a feature created by depleted oceanic heat stores, shifting storm tracks and blocking highs that affect both summer climate in western Europe (cool and wet with bad harvests), central and eastern Asia (drought) and winters in Europe (very cold and dry) – in the USA I guess there would be drought in the mid-West, cold winters and late planting in the northern states. Temperatures don’t have to shift much to be devastating – a prolonged -0.5C northern hemisphere would be quite enough to depress crop yields – but the wet summers and late frosts would be as important.
    The best way to check these theories is to study the current situation: the UV status, the polar vortex, the shifting jetstream (which – Pamela, looks to me to be further SOUTH and LESS loopy – as if flattened, in this Spring, and affected by feedbacks from ocean cooling that shift the standing wave but it is hard to find any data on historical trends). And of course, the global temperature.
    And finally on Landscheidt – the John Daly material gives references for papers in which he predicted the 1990 solar grand maximum of cycle 22, the cycle 23 downturn; the time-lag of 8 years from 1990 to the global max temp of 1998 (and the El Nino); and also the 2002 El Nino, after which he predicted La Nina would predominate – in his 2003 E&E paper he successfully predicted that ‘by 2007’ the masking effect of El Nino would be over and global cooling would become obvious.
    So I am inclined to go with his 2030 as the deep point of the next Maunder-type minimum of which he said there was an 85% probability – and 15% Dalton.

  186. Doug (19:11:52) :
    “Countries in the third world”, fortunately, live in more benign climates, but in some of them, instead of eating their own crops, like potatoes, they eat wheat and they will pay more. By the way, they get used to it because of the several aid programs of free (donated) food.

  187. Espen (05:08:44) :
    Carsten,
    I think this is the article on warming and albedo changes on Mars that is the source of newspaper headlines on Mars warming a year or two ago: http://humbabe.arc.nasa.gov/~fenton/pdf/fenton/nature05718.pdf

    Thank you! It’s a small world. I now remember I have run across Lori Fenton a few years ago. She used (with my permission) one of my Mars images in a PowerPoint presentation named “Global Warming on Mars: How Albedo Changes Impact Climate”, see page 2 of
    http://humbabe.arc.nasa.gov/~fenton/ppt/GCM_fenton.ppt
    How could I forget 🙂

  188. John, I thought the Archibald paper was good because it was informative and data based. I am not qualified to comment on the science behind it.
    Adolfo, agreed.
    Ron, I’m not a scientist, but being a skeptic has helped me in my approach to global warming, so I would be skeptical on the downside risks of cooling also. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be watching and prepare. My example may be simplistic, but I can’t see why you wouldn’t be able to replace grapes for potatoes, even with a 6C temperature drop, I know how to grow both. My point was that there is a substantial amount of land available that could be planted if prices rose. Thanks for the thoughtful interaction.

  189. Gilbert (17:41:23) :
    OT of sorts
    After reading a number of threads and articles on the role of the sun on climate change, I have personally concluded that that role is entirely too speculative. Moreover, it isn’t necessary to define an alternate source of climate change to demonstrate that CO2 ain’t it.
    Such alternatives do need MUCH more research.
    I would very much prefer to see threads that demonstrate the fallacies associated with AGW. One that comes immediately to mind is the “Revelle Factor”, the unsubstantiated proposition of a buffer factor causing CO2 to remain in the atmosphere for 50+ years.
    Ref: http://www.co2web.info/ESEF3VO2.htm

    I don’t think critically assessing AGW theory and proposing alternative hypotheses are mutually exclusive, but it would be nice to see some discussion of neglected (?) papers like the one Gilbert cites, which seems to have smartly deflated the CO2-filled balloon.
    It looks to be maybe 10 years old. Does it stand up today? Might be worth a separate post.
    /Mr Lynn

  190. evanmjones (07:08:55) :
    I so enjoyed your verse, I couldn’t help but add a bit. I hope you’re not offended.
    (To tune “A modern major general”, Pirates of Penzance, Gilbert and Sullivan).
    It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum
    (I wanted to be plainer but I couldn’t find a synonym)
    And thanks to modern media it’s not believed by anyone
    The sun has done a bunk and we will freeze for a millennium
    and all the fossil fuels that we’ve been burning to keep warming us
    they haven’t cooked the planet like the IPCC’s been warning us
    the temperature’s not rising but our greenhouse gas emissions is….
    … Perhaps it’s time to stop and re-examine the hypothesis.
    The models are misleading us, and that’s becoming very clear
    the hotspot has gone missing from the middle of the troposphere
    the poles that should be melting seem to each contain a lot of ice…
    … and yet we’re getting ‘cap and trade’ regardless of the global price.
    So isn’t this a smoking gun?
    There should be spots, but there are none.
    It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum.
    (chorus)
    And so I’ll see you later;
    I am off for the equator
    For this is the very model of a modern Major-minimum

  191. Anthony,
    I had to post here to be in line with the topic.
    There are now appearing a couple SC24 magnetic areas on the Sun. Funny thing is they are not strong enough to blacken the Sun surface to appear as spots. This is a very interesting phenomenom in that Livingstoon & Penn have forecasted the disappearance of spots all together. This area rotates into view just a few days after you post Archibald’s graphs. The event we are seeing now may be exactly what happened during the Maunder and may explain why few spots were counted during this time.
    Since there are so many new viewers to your blog you may consider a post relative to L&P and this spotless spot on the Sun we now see with the magnetogram.
    Thanks for hard work.

  192. Doug (16:07:58) :
    “Ron, I’m not a scientist, but being a skeptic has helped me in my approach to global warming, so I would be skeptical on the downside risks of cooling also. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be watching and prepare. My example may be simplistic, but I can’t see why you wouldn’t be able to replace grapes for potatoes, even with a 6C temperature drop, I know how to grow both. My point was that there is a substantial amount of land available that could be planted if prices rose. Thanks for the thoughtful interaction.”
    OK Doug, I understand.
    It’s the same in Europe.
    Farmers get paid for not using their land.
    Everything is politicized now.

  193. DaveH (06:16:53) :
    evanmjones (07:08:55) :
    Bravo! W. S. Gilbert would be proud!
    /Mr Lynn

  194. LOVE the G&S ! It’s been too long since I saw Pirates…
    ralph ellis (08:11:21) : Of these, I think that food production will be the greatest problem. We are highly dependent on higher latitude crops, rather than the efforts of African and South American farmers
    Um, I think you will find substantially the same major crops grown in Brazil as the USA for global trading. Soybeans, corn, wheat (though more in Argentina), Heck, the USA even grows sugarcane in Florida and Hawaii… It’s not a latitude specialized crop thing that’s the problem. Now the SURFACE AREA in Canada and Argentina that might get shut down… that’s a problem.
    Especially drought issues, but exacerbated by The Ministry of Stupidity:
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/04/argentine-drought-crop-failure/
    pyromancer76 (13:04:12) : 835 was higher. And its IVI (Ice Core Volcanic Index) is greater than all others. Climate and weather sure are complex. Makes one want to look very seriously at E.M. Smith’s advice at chiefio.com on food storage.
    Thanks! But I think you meant chiefio.WORDPRESS.com :
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/food-storage-systems/
    FWIW, there is about a 10:1 ratio of probability of reason for use in the following list. It’s roughly what I’ve experienced (the first few) and expect to be rare (the last few). So about 1 / week I use stored stuff because I’m too lazy to go the the store. After that, I’d put it as:
    Lazy – 1/week
    store closed (night / holiday bad planning on my part) – 1/month or 3.
    feeling cheep – save money, want new toy. (about once / year or 2)
    economic “issue” (job loss, or just more month than check – about once in every 5 to 10 years)
    rock from space (small weather changer: 50 to 100 years estimate)
    climate collapse (that I’d guess is about 1 in 1000 year event)
    BIG SPACE ROCK! 10,000 years, but food won’t be the issue …
    So while I’m all for food storage systems, the climate catastrophe reason is at the end of my list of probabilities for need…
    Mark Hugoson (13:39:06) : It does give one pause about the current “fetish” with peer review.
    Sadly, yes it does. But one can hope that the internet has provided a countervailing power to the ingrown process that “peer” review has become.
    Jim Papsdorf (06:59:43) : Does anyone think this is a good time to buy Bordeaux futures ?
    I do, but every time I’ve added a case to my “food storage system” it’s suddenly a week later, the wine is gone, and I’ve got a headache 😉
    Gilbert (07:56:34) : all that has been apparent ever since the New Left found out that a minnow could be used to block industrial development.
    And now, food production, with a major chunk of Kern County and some other parts of the Central Valley of California shut down for the “Delta Smelt”. Yup, “fish bait” (or “bait fish”) have caused water to be shut off completely this year to a very significant part of where you get your food from. Orchards, (even export crops…), salad greens, you name it. Dustbowl courtesy of The Ministry of Stupidity… Pumps shutdown while folks count minnows… and the crops die…
    Adolfo Giurfa (09:37:21) : Why is it so that a http://www.madscience.org/ AD has appeared on top of this David Archibald´s post?? What is it happening?
    The ads are selected based on the key words in the article TITLE as near as I can tell… So to test this I still think Anthony needs an article on antarctic map color bias titled “Halle Barry Hot Antarctic Images” … 😉
    crosspatch (16:49:43) : As far as I know, no government on the planet has a plan on the shelf waiting to be enacted should something like a major volcano erupt that will impact a growing season.
    Russia has an ongoing very good program to provide stocked facilities underground for emergencies (i.e. nuclear attack) and the elite will do OK. Switzerland has whole cities underground, and stocked. Not exactly a growing plan, but if they are focused on preparation in one area …
    Ron de Haan (06:07:29) : It not a matter of replacing grapes with potatoes. We will lose a whole stretch of land in the North and the South as low temperatures make it impossible to plant crops.
    Well, it’s both better and worse than that 8-0
    We won’t have the 2 or 3 years it takes to produce all those “seed potatoes” you want to plant. We only have a few months of food, at most. So you have to plant the seeds you have; and they are not cold biased seeds.
    This is why I have kale, peas, favas, radishes, spinach, etc. in my seed freezer…
    But we eat, globally, one heck of a lot of meat. In a real food crisis, we’ll eat the cows and pigs AND the grain that we would have fed to them. It’s a 3:1 up to 10:1 ratio of feed : animal weight, so every pound of cow we don’t feed (and instead eat) means we have 10 lbs of corn and soybean too! You can live 10 days on 10 lbs of dry grains… so for each lb of hamburger we don’t eat, you get 10 days of food. That’s a lot of food…
    You may not LIKE eating home made tofu and corn grits, but you’ll survive…
    A colder climate in general will reduce agricultural output by 30%.
    And since most of the corn and soybeans we grow are for animal feed, we can absorb that easily via reduced meat consumption.
    crop loss due to extreme weather events.[…] like droughts,
    The biggie is drought. Cold we can adjust to. Different varieties or slightly less yield. Planting barley a bit more south, and then shifting everything else a bit more south… But a ’30s style drought is not going to work well…
    Doug (16:07:58) : My example may be simplistic, but I can’t see why you wouldn’t be able to replace grapes for potatoes, even with a 6C temperature drop, I know how to grow both.
    Knowing how and having 100,000 acres worth of seeds available from the seed vendor for commercial sale are two very different things. Seed crops are on a several year cycle. Foundation seed is grown out one season to make the seed crop. THAT crop is grown out for a season (or two! depending on quantity needed!) to make the commercial seeds that are sold the following year. You don’t just suddenly have 20% more seed potatoes because you want them this year …
    If you have 5 years, yeah, doable to adjust. 5 months? Nope. 2 years? Partial at best (and folks won’t notice what’s going on for a year or 2 anyway… so the lag is potentially quite long).
    The only really good news here is that each crop can just shift south a couple of hundred miles per year (once it’s realized that you need to do it!) so Canadian barley and rape seed shift to Nebraska. Nebraska corn and soy to Mississippi. Florida sugar cane to Brazil 😉 So it’s really just at the marginal couple of hundred miles where you need a bunch of new seed; but the rest still needs to shift markets and that isn’t as clean as you might like.
    A Sorghum farmer in Texas may know how to grow corn too, but maybe not so much rape seed or barley. AND is likely to be resistant to suddenly growing a whole new crop without ‘trialing’ it first in a small field.
    The whole question just comes down to “rate of change”. 1 year? Toast. 10 years? Cakewalk. 2 to 3 years? Hard times. 7-9 years? Interesting weather with some small challenges. 4-6 years? A bit of a dice roll…
    But the big killer is drought. IFF you don’t know it’s going to be different, you won’t be planting things like millet and sorghum that are drought tolerant. You just plant corn and wheat and expect the rains… and the crops fail. And you do it again next season… And exactly when do you give up?… When do you place the order for millet seed?
    So it’s is something that we can handle… unless it happens “suddenly”. That’s what the food storage system is for, to get you past the “suddenly” part. I can have radishes up in 25 days any time of the year and some kind of bean / pea / lentil / favas / tepary beans anywhere from 6 weeks to 8 weeks after that. Green bean LEAVES are edible in an emergency… Spinach is cold tolerant and Orach is drought tolerant and both have nutritional FAST greens (related to each other!). Kale grows in light snow, cabbage in cool, and collards in summer warmth – all ‘cabbage family’ plants. A nice example of how to adjust. BUT you have to get through that first 3 to 6 months AND you must have the seeds in your freezer…
    Now I fully expect that it will barely get colder enough to prove it in the record (with lots of analysis), and it will be like 1977 on temps (i.e. not crop threatening). But I’m prepared for much worse and hope the preparations will only be used to avoid putting on slippers to run get milk. (Canned milk works fine in tea, baking, packed meal prep, etc. Certainly enough to tell family THEY can go buy milk or I’m using the canned stuff 😉

  195. On stocking for food: Greece has passed through a lot of wars and dictatorships, and each triggers the hoarding instinct. The last dictatorship in 1967 had people falling on the shops and supermarkets like locusts, buying everythin. In front of me was a gentleman who found nothing on the shelfs except vinegar and salt, he stocked on it, 7 bottles of vinegar and seven packets of salt!!
    I also have that mentality since then, so my larder and freezer always have a rotating month’s stock and I would probably survive for six months on flour spaghetti tomatoe sauce and olive oil. Is six months long enough for potatoes to grow?

  196. what worries me about a Maunder, is “Be Afraid, Be very Afraid” comment, whats it going to be like, if its cold
    its likley Western Europe has not enough power to keep warm
    In the Uk power outages have been predicted for even a slightly cold winter, due to non investment in electric power station..combine that with a demand for LPG worldwide then…. ice on power line, electric grid collapse transport system in chaos, supermarkets out of stock of food
    so what could i do….opening up my auxillary fireplaces to burn wood and coal, buy a small generator to maintain the gas heating circulation pump when the grid is out, install a wind turbine, insualte the house with 300mm of insualtion..and stockpile rice andv pasta….use the 50 war time glass preseving jars in the loft to preseve glut in summer food..anything else

  197. It looks like our last sunspot cycle was quite typical until mid-2007. To date, the current deep solar minimum resembles those of 1811, 1823, and 1856. In 1859, the most intense solar storm ever observed took place. It is feared that a similar storm today might destroy all unprotected electronic devices and our global power grid for years to come. It is estimated that these storms occur, on average, about every 500 years.

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