Another anemic solar cycle 23 sunspeck, could 19th century astronomers have seen it?
From Spaceweather.com
SUNSPOT 1016: A ring-shaped sunspot numbered 1016 has emerged near the sun’s equator. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 23. Until these old cycle sunspots go away, the next solar cycle will remain in abeyance.
Tim Clark (10:46:22) :
Considering your recent revelation (to me at least) of expertise in atmospheric physics, I would like your opinion on the above disparity between IPCC estimated effect and yours. Or is .43 essentially equivalent to a few tenths.
Mine is just a rough calculation [guess even], while they claim theirs is ‘settled science’. What I meant was that I’m comfortable with a claim [by others] of a few tenths, but not with ten times as much.
Although Central England is not Global, it does sport one of the longest temperature reconstructions. One can compare that with the logarithm of the CO2 concentration: http://leif.org/research/CET2.png and note that increases like the one recently have been seen in the past. I have singled those out and plotted the temperature and CO2 for each: http://leif.org/research/CETandCO2.pdf
I don’t see more than a ‘few tenths’ if even that.
BTW, the above plot was what me banned at tamino’s http://tamino.wordpress.com/
Thanks, Leif.
Spotless days page has just been updated
SC24 has crossed the 600 spotless days limit and still climbing fast as ever
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Evolution
Smoothed spotless days is getting very high indeed
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Wolf
Main characteristics per solar cycle
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Main
“… if SC24 belongs in the category of the old cycles, then minimum would take place mid-2009 (March 2009 at the earliest). But then SC23 would have last over 13 years, making it one of the longest solar cycles over the last 250 years (SC04: 169 months). Though unlikely, if SC24 is not going into a higher drive soon, then SC23 is certainly ready to make an assault on this over 200-year old record.”
We live in interesting times.
Leif Svalgaard (11:08:54) :
Although Central England is not Global, it does sport one of the longest temperature reconstructions. One can compare that with the logarithm of the CO2 concentration: http://leif.org/research/CET2.png and note that increases like the one recently have been seen in the past. I have singled those out and plotted the temperature and CO2 for each: http://leif.org/research/CETandCO2.pdf
Leif Not sure you saw these I posted before
they are temperature vs co2 and temperature vs tsi/ssn
There is some correlation between temp and co2 (but does temp cause co2 increase or vice versa). using a linear curve fit (not shown) gives approx 0.01deg C per ppm!
There is little correlation between tsi and temperature
bill (15:38:02) :
they are temperature vs co2 and temperature vs tsi/ssn
No, just temperature and CO2. Scroll down on http://leif.org/research/CETandCO2.pdf to see the last plots of ‘global’ temperatures.
Carsten Arnholm, Norway (11:32:09) :
then SC23 is certainly ready to make an assault on this over 200-year old record.”
SC21 lived on 3 years after the official minimum, and SC22 lived on 2 years after the official minimum, so no wonder that SC23 is still with us [as it will be for another2-3 years]. See page of of http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
We live in interesting times.
Nevertheless true.
Leif Svalgaard (20:25:27) :
bill (15:38:02) :
“they are temperature vs co2 and temperature vs tsi/ssn”
No, just temperature and CO2. Scroll down on
Sorry, scratch that. I misread your comment [self-centeredly] thinking it referred to my plot.
Leif Svalgaard (20:28:57) :
See page 4 of http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
Leif Svalgaard (22:37:52) :
If I understand you the effect of the UV induced ionization on the earth’s magnetic field is the product of the charge density and the thermal wind induced charge velocity. Do we have an independent estimate of thermal wind velocity? Is it constant? or does it vary enough to affect the currents generated?
By the way, that was one of the best posts I’ve ever seen.
Bob Meyer (21:35:22) :
Is it constant? or does it vary enough to affect the currents generated?
The variation is quite regular and has a strong [but predictable] dependence on the Sun’s zenith angle [i.e. seasonal variation]. You can f.ex. go to this website: http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/portal/-?$part=CmsPart&docId=2215117 and ask for 30 days of data. The top plot shows the diurnal variation of the Declination. Select ‘plot’. The ‘noise’ generally cancels out over a month, but one can in any case remove two or three days of strongest activity [which usually happens at night and is unrelated to the UV]
By the way, that was one of the best posts I’ve ever seen.
Thanks for the kind words. One tries…
Bob Meyer (21:35:22) :
Is it constant? or does it vary enough to affect the currents generated?
I forgot to mention that we don’t need to know the density or velocity of the charges. We simply measure their magnetic effect on the ground. But we do know from rocket and/or radar measurements how things vary and depend on each other. Our knowledge here is extensive and this phenomenon is well understood [at least for the use we make of it for the sunspot calibration].
Leif Svalgaard (22:35:42)
Thanks for the informative reply.
Leif Svalgaard (20:28:57) :
SC21 lived on 3 years after the official minimum, and SC22 lived on 2 years after the official minimum, so no wonder that SC23 is still with us [as it will be for another2-3 years]. See page of of http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
I think you mean to say page 4. The difference is if course that both SC23 and SC24 activity is now very, very low. If we assume that SC23 keeps on going for another 2-3 years as you suggest. and as it has tried the last couple of months, while at the same time SC24 remains in the waiting room, we might end up with a very long SC23.
Carsten Arnholm, Norway (02:43:31) :
The difference is if course that both SC23 and SC24 activity is now very, very low. If we assume that SC23 keeps on going for another 2-3 years as you suggest. and as it has tried the last couple of months, while at the same time SC24 remains in the waiting room, we might end up with a very long SC23.
Yes, but my point is that the length of cycle 23 is really determined by a property of cycle 24, rather than of 23.
Dr. Svalgaard
Is Dr. Hathaway challenging accuracy of polar field prediction method;
Polar Field Strength gives 75 ± 30.
(Svalgaard, Cliver, & Kamide, 2005 give an error of ±8 but this represents the error in the measurement of the polar field, not the error in the accuracy of the prediction)
Dr. David H. Hathaway http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presentations/20090207Astrofest_SunspotCycle.ppt
I hope not, since my polar fields tracking formula depends on your method to project forward to SC24 and beyond.
I just noticed this sunspot adjustment from NOAA
Note: The Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium reports two small, previously unnumbered sunspots on April 6th and April 22nd. Accordingly, we have reduced the number of spotless days for 2009 by 2.
What is going on here ?
What is the minimum criteria for defining whether or not a SSN should be assigned ?
This kind of behaviour from NOAA seems to be more common in recent times. To my thinking, this is a distortion of the SSN in terms of the historical reporting method.
The current doppler images show how long SC23 will go…sunspots are tied to the differential flows and SC23 shows scope for more sunspots to come.
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/comb2.gif
Anthony, I also second the motion to keep Leif’s explanation in the : Leif Svalgaard (22:37:52) : post someplace permanently where one could refer repetitious questions.
Maybe another tab , like the “projects” tab. A FAQ on sun and various facts as far as this blog knows them.
vukcevic (05:12:28) :
Is Dr. Hathaway challenging accuracy of polar field prediction method;
David is of his rocker with this. The measurement error of the polar fields is very small (of the order of 1 microTesla). Estimating the error bar on a prediction is as hard as [or harder than] the prediction itself. In our paper we estimated the error from the differences between predicted and observed values and found it to be very small (or the order of 2, so 75+/-2). We arbitrarily increased that to 8 because at the time, we only had the first year of the polar year data, rather than the three we would have liked. David’s +/-30 is out of the blue, but may be chosen because that would allow him [in due time] to claim that he agreed with our prediction.
Ozzie John (05:19:27) :
I just noticed this sunspot adjustment from NOAA
Where did you see that. NOAA does not keep track of spotless days…
Ozzie John (05:19:27) :
I just noticed this sunspot adjustment from NOAA […]
What is going on here ?
Never mind I saw it on:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
That site is not an official NOAA site, so nothing is going on, just the site maintainer adjusting his own interpretation of the data.
Geoff Sharp (05:28:58) :
The current doppler images show how long SC23 will go…sunspots are tied to the differential flows and SC23 shows scope for more sunspots to come.
The current Doppler images etc have nothing to do with this [and if anything, the torsional oscillation is a consequence of the activity, not the cause of it]. Every solar cycle drags on for some time after the official minimum.
What are the huge dark areas in the center of the sun in
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/realtime-update.html
In EIT1771 EIT195 and EIT284
??
Nothing showing in the MDI
EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
anna v (09:43:00) :
What are the huge dark areas in the center of the sun
It is a ‘coronal hole’. An area of the Sun where the magnetic field is largely weak and of one polarity, thus ‘open’ to the solar wind, that simply lifts the corona away from the Sun in such areas. You see similar ones around the poles. The solar wind speed is high in coronal holes, we would expect such high speed wind to impact the Earth in about 4 days producing geomagnetic storms and aurorae. This is a very good prediction.
Leif Svalgaard (09:50:18) :
The solar wind speed is high in coronal holes, we would expect such high speed wind to impact the Earth in about 4 days producing geomagnetic storms and aurorae. This is a very good prediction.
I just looked at the image. The coronal hole is not quite at disk center yet, so add another day to the prediction.