Last year we had the forecast from NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze of an “ice free north pole”. As we know, that didn’t even come close to being true. Summer 2008 had more arctic ice than summer 2007, and summer 2007 was not “ice free” by any measure.
In spite of the spectacular failure of Dr. Serreze’s widely quoted prediction, there were no retractions, no apologies for misleading the public, no admissions of error, and inaccurate stories like the one above are still in place. So what could possibly be worse news from NSIDC?
The very man who made that ridiculous statement of “an ice free north pole in 2008” is set to become the “incoming director” of NSIDC. Apparently alarmism pays, especially if you get press.
Does anybody live in Maryland that can attend this talk? I’d just love to see what sort of “heat” he’s talking about “cranking up”.
Goddard Visitor Center
8800 Greenbelt Road – Code 130
Greenbelt, Md 20771
301.286.3978 – Phone
301.286.1781 – Fax
I wonder what new “forecasts” will be coming in the new Goddard movie “frozen”? Gosh, that spherical screen is really important in getting the science facts across don’t you think?
Interactive Feature: FROZEN – View the trailer, gallery, and more.
Goddard’s New ‘Science On a Sphere’ Movie Opens Nationwide This Spring
In an era when change itself seems to be the subject holding people’s attention, NASA presents a spectacular new movie that depicts the changing Earth. Called “Frozen,” this film introduces the idea of our transitioning home planet in ways that have never been seen before.
“Frozen” brings Earth to life, projecting images of our planet onto completely spherical movie screens hanging in the center of darkened theaters. Turning in space, images on the screen become a portal onto a virtual planet, complete with churning, swirling depictions of huge natural forces moving below. “Frozen” showcases the global cryosphere, those places on Earth where temperatures don’t generally rise above water’s freezing point. As one of the most directly observable climate gauges, the changing cryosphere serves as a proxy for larger themes.
“Frozen” opens around the country and in several locations around the world on March 27, 2009. For a partial list of Science On a Sphere theaters, click here.
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OMG! , rephelan (23:43:49)
Yes, I meant Gavin at RC not CA. I can’t believe I did that.
I apologize and retract my reckless and grotesque error in my John H (22:25:31) post.
I won’t repeat that mistake.
The rest of the post is accurate but my error ruined it.
Now if the head of NSIDC, head of NOAA, Hansen, Gore and Waxman could grasp the concept of correction and apology.
Adolfo 05:56:11
Don’t worry, this time we are going Blame Canada.
================================
The NSIDC site see,s to be back up, but now I’m a bit confused. It is displaying a graph for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent showing 2009 YTD sea ice as being less than that for 2008. I was under the impression that 2009 has been greater than 2008. I tried to check previous graphs here in WUWT, e.g. Steve Goddard’s post of 12-20-2008
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/20/polar-albedo-feedback/#more-4618
but the graph seems to be displaying the same one as at NSIDC. More effort than I wanted to put in here. Is the current NSIDC graph correct?
It turns out that the Arctic really WAS screaming back in 2007. An audio tape was recently released in which it screamed, “WOW, IT’S GREAT TO GET OUT FROM UNDER ALL THIS ICE!!!”
Recently the Arctic was quoted as saying, “Well man, when I screamed back in 2007 it had been awhile, now, I’ve kinda chilled and I really don’t mind another 30 or 40 years of ice…”
NSIDC appears to live on a steady diet of crow, as their dire predictions never come true, and this season despite their April 6 proclamation of thin ice and rapid melt, NSIDC continues to munch on crow.
My advice to the folks at NSIDC: Buy a case of ketchup, you will need it!
Oldjim: In the article you cited there is the following the Sun’s magnetic axis is tilted to an unusual degree
How unusual is this?
Contradictory affirmations: CO2 causes cold and heat ???
http://www.metro.us/us/article/2009/04/27/05/0650-82/index.xml
Yes the NSIDC pages were unavailable through most of yesterday. Having worked in large data centers I doubt it is anything to worry about. All large data centers go through patch cycles where they do up grades, and repairs, and install necessary security and fix patches for the operating systems and key applications. In American that is almost always done very late in the evening on Saturday night and allowed to run into Sunday if they have problems.
Every once in a while patch changes go bad and totally muck up the system and they need to rebuild data bases and sort out what went wrong and sometimes back out the change to get things working again. The majority of changes I have dealt with take about a 4 hour window, with a few requiring 6-12 and a small number required a “scheduled” down time of over 12 hours.
Since the ice links are running this morning I would be inclined to think they had a long running patch/change cycle last night , and perhaps some large upgrade that required the data bases to be pulled down for a while. That typically requires them to write a full backup (can take hours) then pull the data bases down and do the changes, then bring everything back up and test. If the tests fail, they would need to back out the changes and restore the backed up data bases and plan a new maintenance cycle at some later date.
Looks like everything is up right now as I can get to links.
Larry
As of April 26, 2009, the Global sea ice area is about 270,000 sq. mi. above the 1979-2000 average. That is an area that would cover the state of Texas.
Does anyone save NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent graphs?
Because the last two days I saw something peculiar.
Their graph of Arctic sea ice extent had showed the ice approaching the 79-00 average, nearly meeting it, then a clear turn down showed up.
Today it appears the turn down was softened by revising previous days resulting in the turn away from the average being gradual over along period of time.
My cynicism has me imagining the fear of ice returning to the average motivated a turn down adjustment that hadn’t happened. The next day it was softened to better conceal the more obvious turn, or adjustment.
After viewing the NASA “FROZEN” trailer – I note that half way through, there is a short clip animating what appears to be mass glaciation of Western Europe. Doesn’t last long but shows ice forming from north to south into the Med. Could it be that NSIDC et al are preparing to pitch a new ice age “Climate Change?”
Or is more likely that any new ice and cooling is still related to the inimitable villain CO2? Made, of course, by man. The shame if it all!
Keith Minto (22:32:09) :
theBuckWheat (20:27.03), I read something similar cobbled together by the Australian ABC http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2009/04/24/2550891.htm?site=science&topic=enviro
This article seemed so full of inconsistencies that it really needed its own segment on WUWT.
For example 1. “marked reduction in forest fires since 1870 have increased fire loads”- yes ,but wouldn’t new fires just release carbon already stored by this reduction in forest fires?
2.”deforestation fires result in 20% of human caused CO2 emissions”.-are they ALL caused by humans?
3.”smoke plumes inhibit convection”-have you ever seen or flown through Pyrocumulous clouds?…..I have, descending into Canberra from Melbourne at the start of the 2003 bush fires when 500 homes and many lives were lost.
It was a rough descent with ascending smoky cloud peaks to 25k ft.,certainly no lack of convection there.
It just went on and on, it is a shame that articles like this are presented without judgement”.
Keith Minto,
This is what they call AGW/Climate Change Alarmism.
It’s a combination of semi science, manipulation and fraud combined with biased journalism.
Both scientists and journalists involved have sold their scientific hence journalistic integrity in support of a very dirty political scheme.
The sinister part of this scheme is that many of the alarmists involved really believe they are doing “the right thing saving the World” but in realty they help an Authoritarian Elite into power and it’s populations in “Green Shackles”.
The question I often ask myself when dealing with those kind of people is the following.
You have studied, you have acquired a degree, but…do you have any common sense?
The World is not suffering from Runaway Global Warming, the world is suffering from
Runaway Global Stupidity!
John H.- 55 (09:59:24) :
Does anyone save NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent graphs?
Because the last two days I saw something peculiar.
Their graph of Arctic sea ice extent had showed the ice approaching the 79-00 average, nearly meeting it, then a clear turn down showed up.
Today it appears the turn down was softened by revising previous days resulting in the turn away from the average being gradual over along period of time.
My cynicism has me imagining the fear of ice returning to the average motivated a turn down adjustment that hadn’t happened. The next day it was softened to better conceal the more obvious turn, or adjustment”.
John,
This is what they call fraud and manipulation.
It must be clear by now that the current NSIDC is serving a political agenda.
Therefore, get your data somewhere else until scientific integrity has been restored, hence, the hoax is over.
Today (4/27/09), the NSIDC arctic sea ice extent appears to be tracking very close to the 1979-2000 average. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png I didn’t check it over the weekend, so I didn’t see the adjustment, but right now it seems to be closer to the benchmark than it’s been for a while. And the sun continues to sleep, it looks so comfortable (I don’t blame Sol for snoozing, I certainly felt like sleeping in today.) Also, Could the massive volcanic eruptions in alaska and the accompanying natural aerosols be slowing the melt?
I don’t know, but I’m starting to doubt my skepticism. Friday morning at 6am I was surrounded by ice. Ice on my windschield, ice on the grass and ice on my roof. Now it’s all gone, melted away in just a few hours as the mercury, i mean red alcohol, kept climbing right on up into the 90s this weekend. I’m pretty sure that there was heavy shore traffice on Friday afternoon and all of that excess CO2 from the SUVs must have heated things up. If only Al Gore had visited the area this past weekend, things would have been different.
Yeah I agree ClimateFanBoy (11:13:24) :, but my point is that 2 or 3 days ago it was approaching even closer to that average line in a gentle arc less curved than the average line.
The next day it showed a significant turn, curve down, change.
Today that curve is gone and a gentle, longer arc (seemingly going back a week) is in it’s place.
My cynisism could be getting the best of me but that’s the impression I got and have.
So I wish I had those daily graphs.
Ron de Haan (10:50:14) :
John H.- 55 (09:59:24) :
Does anyone save NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent graphs?
Because the last two days I saw something peculiar.
Their graph of Arctic sea ice extent had showed the ice approaching the 79-00 average, nearly meeting it, then a clear turn down showed up.
Today it appears the turn down was softened by revising previous days resulting in the turn away from the average being gradual over along period of time.
My cynicism has me imagining the fear of ice returning to the average motivated a turn down adjustment that hadn’t happened. The next day it was softened to better conceal the more obvious turn, or adjustment”.
John,
This is what they call fraud and manipulation.
It must be clear by now that the current NSIDC is serving a political agenda.
Therefore, get your data somewhere else until scientific integrity has been restored, hence, the hoax is over.
Ron, John H. notices something he thinks might odd and requests the information that would be needed to even seriously suspect a real problem. You don’t produce that information but instead immediately respond that what he sees is fraud and manipulation. On what are you basing this? Your gut feelings? I’m growing a bit weary of constantly hearing your gut feelings and instinctive reactions. Don’t become the very problem we all see.
John H.- 55 (09:59:24) :
“Does anyone save NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent graphs?
Because the last two days I saw something peculiar.”
I saw it too. I looked at NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice Extent Graph on Thursday eve and it looked like we were on an imminent collision course with the 1979 – 2000 average and I looked again on Saturday early AM and it appeared that we were tracking at a decent distance below and parallel to the 1979 – 2000 average. The current graph at http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png seems to have arrived around the midpoint of my two observations. I understand that there are data corrections occurring on a regular basis and IARC-JAXA graphs showed a reasonable drop in the last few days http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png, but the change I saw on NSIDC seemed to be a longer term shift in the essence of their graph.
Perhaps Dr. Walt Meier can let us know if there has been a significant revision to their data set, adjustment to their reporting methodology, or otherwise?
Well thank you, just the fact, I knew I saw what I did.
When I first saw the significant turn down a few days ago I thought, Oh of course that had to happen just before it colided with the average.
But I thought it was to severe, especially given the stubborn cold in the Actric and people would find it curious.
But then low and behold the severity of the down turn, away from coliding with the average, has been replaced with a minor arch going back a week or so.
I never bought some of the earlier mid winter hard curves, downward, down on the graph. Especially with the problems they had. It seemed every time the gradual expansion of ice continued ramping up for a while a sudden significant drop appeared out of no where. To correct it?
I’m not all the way to the fraud and manipulation labels yet but in totality the agressive nature of the ASG movement of late has been distrubing and eye opening.
If you know what I mean?
Mike Bryant (20:03:39) :
It could be that JAXA being more modern is more accurate. That could account for some of the differnce you are talking about. It could also be that when 2001 – 2007 is averaged in there isn’t a big difference from when it is not added in– I haven’t taken the time to do the math on it, sorry.
But it still could be that I misunderstood your question.
“Flanagan (05:19:03) : A retraction about what, exactly? About stating that north pole COULD be ice free? I really don’t see the problem here.”
I could marry Halle Berry. The moon could crash in to the earth. People could wear shoes on their hands. Should I retract any of that? I don’t see a problem here. 😉
BTW, Flanagan, when your with your family do you talk like this? Let’s say one of your relatives at a family gathering said at the dinner table, “Some nut scientist said the Noth Pole could have been ice free last year. We’ve been having record cold two winters in a row. What was that nut thinking?” Would you then say to him, at the dinner table, the same things you are saying here?
Because the truth is I think you feel less accountable to what you say because you’re annonymous here on a blog.
“Flanagan (05:19:03) : I really don’t see the problem here.”
It’s anything goes here on the internet, hey Flanagan!
If I remember correctly we were told by Dr Meier that NSIDC does average out over several days at least to minimize problems that might show up in the data capture. Nothing unusual going on if that’s true.
Re: Bill Illis (16:42:23) :
“I think you can actually download the movie here. Would take more than a couple of hours to download though given the different options are 1.3 – 1.9 Gig files.”
I downloaded the Hi Quality (1.867GB) file. It took about 27 minutes at about 850kb/s on my PC. The video clip is 11.57 minuutes long. The quality of the graphics was good even on my 19 inch display. The message was “shock and awe.”
Needless to say, I didn’t save the video to My Library.
Richard,
That sounds plausible and likely.
But I still want that average line touched by this year’s ice line.
Even if Dr. Meier has to help it along. 8:)
Hey, I’m a comedian.