Bad news from NSIDC

Last year we had the forecast from NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze of an “ice free north pole”. As we know, that didn’t even come close to being true. Summer 2008 had more arctic ice than summer 2007, and summer 2007 was not “ice free” by any measure.

serreze_2008_forecast

Click to read original story from ABC News

In spite of the spectacular failure of Dr. Serreze’s widely quoted prediction, there were no retractions, no apologies for misleading the public, no admissions of error, and  inaccurate stories like the one above are still in place. So what could possibly be worse news from NSIDC?

The very man who made that ridiculous statement of “an ice free north pole in 2008”  is set to become the “incoming director” of NSIDC. Apparently alarmism pays, especially if you get press.

serreze_talk

Does anybody live in Maryland that can attend this talk? I’d just love to see what sort of “heat” he’s talking about “cranking up”.

Goddard Visitor Center

8800 Greenbelt Road – Code 130

Greenbelt, Md 20771

301.286.3978 – Phone

301.286.1781 – Fax

I wonder what new “forecasts” will be coming in the new Goddard movie “frozen”? Gosh, that spherical screen is really important in getting the science facts across don’t you think?

Frozen interactive image

Interactive Feature: FROZEN – View the trailer, gallery, and more.

Goddard’s New ‘Science On a Sphere’ Movie Opens Nationwide This Spring

In an era when change itself seems to be the subject holding people’s attention, NASA presents a spectacular new movie that depicts the changing Earth. Called “Frozen,” this film introduces the idea of our transitioning home planet in ways that have never been seen before.

“Frozen” brings Earth to life, projecting images of our planet onto completely spherical movie screens hanging in the center of darkened theaters. Turning in space, images on the screen become a portal onto a virtual planet, complete with churning, swirling depictions of huge natural forces moving below. “Frozen” showcases the global cryosphere, those places on Earth where temperatures don’t generally rise above water’s freezing point. As one of the most directly observable climate gauges, the changing cryosphere serves as a proxy for larger themes.

“Frozen” opens around the country and in several locations around the world on March 27, 2009. For a partial list of Science On a Sphere theaters, click here.

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Sam the Skeptic

I think today’s postings finally confirm that the lunatics HAVE taken over the asylum.
Trip to Mars, anyone?

Steven Goddard

Hopefully some of the Catlin crew will be there to talk about their experiences with the -40 degree Arctic springtime heat.

Leon Brozyna

Job requirement must be for that of a contortionist.
When this summer’s ice exceeds that of last year, the spin that’ll emanate from NSIDC will sound like it’s coming from a pretzel; heck, in a couple year’s time, as the Arctic continues to recover, he may even start to look like a pretzel!

NSDIC — Now into cooking ice. What’s next, cooking cities …
Need new source of real and accurate data, or we need to do our own ice from raw satellite data software.

tommoriarty

I am still waiting for David Barber, of the Univeristy of Manitoba, to respond to my $1000 challenge. He predicted that the arctic will be ice free by the summer of 2015. I proposed a wager. I am still waiting.
Tom

jack mosevich

The last phrase of CATHERINE BRAHIC’s column is “watch this space…”
Well, I am still watching..
While trying to find if she did post an update (I could not find any) I came across this: (anti-skeptic “facts”)
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed.html

“When this summer’s ice exceeds that of last year, the spin that’ll emanate from NSIDC will sound like it’s coming from a pretzel”

We’ve already seen your “pretzel twisting” of the standards happening: Now, it’s the “second year” ice that is threatened -> becuase “second year” ice is “easier to melt” than earlier ice (supposedly longer lived) that is harder to melt.
So, regardless of whether the overall ice area increased from 2007 – 2008, or from 2008 – 2009, it doesn’t matter because global warming is “a threat to the “easy-to-melt” second year ice. ”
Next year, it will threaten to even-easier-to-melt third year ice.

dhogaza

It is clear that he was talking of the North Pole itself, not the Arctic Ice Cap in its entirety:

“There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
Despite its news value in the media, the North Pole being ice free is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze points out, “this is just another point on the globe”.

So this:

As we know, that didn’t even come close to being true. Summer 2008 had more arctic ice than summer 2007, and summer 2007 was not “ice free” by any measure.

Has no relation to his actual comment.
Nor did he “forecast” an ice-free North Pole. A “possibility” is not a certainty.
REPLY: Bird man, you know nothing about handling the media, what matters is the public perception and headlines, like the one at ABC for which he is directly responsible. The fact that he did NOTHING, NOT ONE THING, to mitigate the error he started in the press, speaks volumes. Spin it however you want, but he did nothing to correct it. A scientist of character would act to correct the misconception he started. Yet here it is, a year later, and the ABC story is still up, unchanged.
And I should add this comment from Serreze “this is just another point on the globe”. What absolute tripe. It is the only point he is interested and the focus of the story itself.
I saw Serreze recently ona History channel special and he repeated the same sorts of propaganda in his interview. He knows EXACTLY what he is doing.
– Anthony

Robert Bateman

Melting ice, dead trees backlit by a hot orange fireball sun that mercilessly cooks the life out of Earth. Endless desert, death, no water.
Did I miss anything?

Ron de Haan

Without intending to insult any person wearing a beard, but Dr. Serreze looks a bit like Santa. You believe in Santa or not.
NSIDC without a shimmer of a doubt is a warmist platform, shame on them.

Ed Zuiderwijk

Should we continue to trust data coming out of Bolder from now on? Or should we send him a hat as welcoming present on behalf of WUWT for him to eat when the data of his own institute tell him that he’s got it all wrong? To be consumed in the presence of the worldpress?

Mike Bryant

Why do I have this bad feeling that the new movie “Frozen”, will be effective propaganda? “Cold Matters”… that’s why the 2007 ice melt will be prominently featured as Serreze drones on about our burning, dying planet, as an impressive heartwrenching score makes even the most hard-hearted shed a tear. The polar bears will starve and drown on cue as biologists describe the desperate animals that have even had to resort to cannibalism. We will fly closely over miles upon miles of dry, cracked steaming lakebeds. The sea level rises will be so much better handled than the simple graphics used by AIT. Every scenario that has been credibly discounted and disproven over and over will once again be brought back from the dead. Kilimanjaro is just too good, too cinematic NOT to use. The Hockeystick Graph will be new and improved and even scarier. As the spaghetti lines of the graph move slowly from left to right around the huge sphere, the violins, the timpani, the trumpets will crescendo along with the upturn to our present day. The ocean will boil and churn and acidify before our very eyes. There will even be footage of the tsunami along with the colorful global sea level images. Hurricane Katrina will play a major role as one of the villains of this fraudulent main feature. Of course, the real criminal in this farce is you and me and a way of life that has brought even more life and wealth into this world, because we are the spreaders of the filthy CO2 that has brought our beautiful planet to within a hairsbreadth of destruction. And to prove our culpability the Mauna Loa data along with those beautiful colorful moving images from the AIRS team will put the nail in our coffin…
Don’t worry if you can’t afford a ticket, it’s free if you just register to vote.
Almost forgot… you also get your choice of an action figure made of soap. Gore, Hansen, or Mann… which dope on a rope will YOU choose??

TerryBixler

These people get there queues from their source of funding. Waxman and Pelosi are not far from the control of the money. Obama and the EPA are writing the script. Science is not part of the agenda. The solar minimum continues and certainly has an impact on the ice in both poles. No word of a connection from NSIDC, maybe it is all just anecdotal. Maybe they could show there is absolutely no correlation. Maybe they are hoping for an Oscar like Al’s after their premier. Science is really all about public awareness in any case, we all know that.

Robert Wood

Robert Bateman (16:11:36) :
Melting ice, dead trees backlit by a hot orange fireball sun that mercilessly cooks the life out of Earth. Endless desert, death, no water.
Did I miss anything?

Floods! Oh… and career promotions.

Bill Illis

I think you can actually download the movie here. Would take more than a couple of hours to download though given the different options are 1.3 – 1.9 Gig files.
ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/extras/frozen/
There is a low-quality introduction version here (108 MB) which I watched. Looks like it will be another of those glaciers are melting, sea level will rise, Al Gore’s new condominium on the ocean will be under water.
ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/extras/frozen/media/

Stephen Skinner

It seems that in 1958 the submarine USS Skate became the first vessel to surface at the Pole. How thin would the ice have to be to allow a submarine to break through?

Just Want Truth...

Mark Serreze “incoming director” of NSIDC?
This is incomprehensible.
Politics is power.

dhogaza

The fact that he did NOTHING, NOT ONE THING, to mitigate the error he started in the press, speaks volumes.

Where is the error in his statement that there was a possibility of the north pole being ice free last summer?
Where was the error in the headline that said exactly the same thing?
What is there to correct?
REPLY: Oh puhleeeze. Where is the result of the headline “North pole could be ice free in 2008”? Show me that result, you can’t because it didn’t happen. You are defending scaremongering, and it shows that you have no scruples. What next, defending Waxman? Serreze did nothing; zero, zilch, nada, he let the error he started live on in headlines worldwide. If I had made a statement in error that the media picked up you’d be all over me to fix it, retract it, deny it, whatever, Serreze gets a free pass…because you (and your friends) have no scruples. – Anthony

Murgatroyd

And our next news item:
“President Obama Names Trofim Lysenko to Head Department of Agriculture” …

Hmmm …. batting zero and getting promoted. I need to get away from using any sort of logic and rationale, instead go with a feel-good knee-jerk reaction and learn also how to compromise my soul -er- position. I’m just not going to get ahead by adhering to morals, ethics or standards …

Just Want Truth...

“Ron de Haan (16:13:07) : Dr. Serreze looks a bit like Santa.”
To me he looks like he’s from the 60’s. Same with William Connolley.
Baby boomer self loathing (as it was put in an earlier thread in WUWT) is in political power. Apparently baby boomers feel that everyone has enough money to pay for their religious feelings of guilt—even the elderly in America’s Northern United States who pay ~$400.00 a month to heat their houses in the winter.
What will stop all of this???

Just Want Truth...

I just got up from taking a nap to see this—am I still sleeping and having a surreal nightmare??

crosspatch

Good thing he wasn’t around in 1959 when there was less ice at the pole. Caption for that photo is “Skate (SSN-578), surfaced at the North Pole, 17 March 1959.”

crosspatch

from 1962.
Seadragon (SSN-584), foreground, and her sister Skate (SSN-578) during a rendezvous at the North Pole in August 1962. Note the men on the ice beyond the submarines.
Seems to me that it isn’t all that unusual to have no ice at the pole.

Neville

O/T, but some GOOD news from downunder, the country’s top rating TV network breakfast show went big on Ian Wishart’s new book Air Con:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/videos/2365942
And dedicated WattsUp readers will note some photos from the surfacestations project feature in the book and are credited – they’re the ones in the video clip above.
Link for book itself is http://www.ianwishart.com

Pamela Gray

This isn’t a nightmare, its a comedy. These people are fast becoming late night jokes. Eventually, comedians will pick up on the discrepancy between warnings and reality. They will start telling jokes about PMS and global warming, global warming and “natural enhancement”, etc. The more science is taken out of the realm of journals and into the media, the more its underbelly (and there is and has been one since science was first practiced) will be known to Joe Schmo and laughed at.

JamesA

I live in Maryland, in Annapolis, about 30 mintues from Greenbelt and am lucky enough to be self employeed, I am looking into attending this farce of a lecture and will let you know what I find. It appears to be open to the public.

tokyoboy

Sorry a bit OT, but I eagerly want to see a graph showing the temporal evolution of man-made CO2 emission, from late 19th century up to as more recent year as possible (e.g., ~2007). This is because I am now beginning to doubt the “reality” of the astonishingly smooth, monotonous increase in Mauna Loa CO2 concentration, as someone pointed out in the Sir Monckton thread.
Could somebody help me in this? Thanks in advance.

Rathtyen

It snowed this weekend (April 26th) across the Snowy Mountains in southern NSW and the Victorian Alps. I don’t think its unprecedented, but its certainly the earliest in a long time. The timing seems roughly in line with the first falls in the last northern winter (mid-October?)
Since I recently discovered the joys of skiing, I’ve decided this global warming thing is good news: the more the likes of Serreze talk it up, the colder it gets (has someone tried to model that based on the apparent correlations?). It might not be good for agriculture etc, but you have to play the hand you are dealt….and for me, that means more skiing!

Just The Facts

Maybe a bit of good news coming from our British brethren. In a thread earlier today on WUWT I highlighted an editorial on solar activity in Sunday’s The Independent that partook in some “denier bashing”.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/felipe-fernandezarmesto-its-been-a-long-cold-lonely-winter-but-here-comes-the-sun-and-yes-its-all-right-1674263.html
However, printing this editorial might have been a bit of CYA (Cover Your Ass) by The Independent in preparation for this article in Monday’s Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-missing-sunspots-is-this-the-big-chill-1674630.html
This is one of the most factual assessments of recent solar activity that I have seen in the main stream media to date. Cheers to Dr. David Whitehouse for writing a balanced piece on solar activity and to The Independent for printing it. Now if we could just get the Economist and BBC to start reporting the facts, we might be able to have genuine informed debate with our friends on the other side of the puddle.

Fluffy Clouds (Tim L)

Just Want Truth… (16:57:37) :
I just got up from taking a nap to see this—am I still sleeping and having a surreal nightmare??
SLAP! “wake up and go back to sleep”
It will all become a big joke soon, just go around the neighborhood and ask.
people here are starting to laugh at all of it now. (CO2 Warming)

Just Want Truth...

“dhogaza (16:47:07) : Where is the error in his statement that there was a possibility of the north pole being ice free last summer?”
There’s a possibility the moon could start heading toward earth and crush the United States. There’s a possibility I could marry Halle Berry. There’s a possibility people will start wearing shoes on their hands. So what’s wrong with me saying these dhogaza? Where’s the error?

I had some correspondence with Mark Serreze some months ago. His initial claim was that the radiative forcing of CO2 had been measured. I suspect he may still believe this, even though I pointed out to him that it was not true.

Steven Hill

My Father, life long Democrat can only shake his head at what is going on now with Gore, Pelosi, Obama, Biden, Kerry and others.
Wow, 100 ppm CO2 is going to destory the planet? Give me a break, only fools would buy into that non-sense. It’s all about taxes and more taxes.
The Government better be finding out how to grow crops in cold climate. If the sun does not wake up soon, it’s going to be very cold soon.

I will try to attend the lecture as well, am 20 minutes away.

Allan M R MacRae

I suggest that warmists share a common affliction – innumeracy. When the temperature data from satellites and radiosondes shows cooling, and arctic sea ice extent is growing, etc., etc., what part of Earth is cooling, not warming, do they not understand?
Time for young Barack and his science advisors to go back to elementary school, and work on their numbers. Anna 1, anna 2….

This is a very serious issue…for comedians. The ultimate argument against all this “fun stuff” of global warming is to reveal to everybody the laughable, ludicrous, ridiculous, of its real comic nature, which many deep and not less profound thinkers in this blog have described as “the king is nude” state.

Just Want Truth...

crosspatch (17:14:11) :
HEADLINE :
“Expert Says Arctic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea”
Recent news? No
New York Times, February 20, 1969. From article :
“In fact Dr. Budyko (Dr,. Mikhail I. Budyko) argues that an ice-free Arctic Ocean is the “normal” situation.”

Shawn Whelan

In Ayn Rand’s, “Atlas Shrugged” a key component was the control of science.
So “Atlas shrugged” now comes to life.
We will see how the coddled government science establishment enjoys the new economy.
US government tax receipts down 27% in March.
Who is going to pay to perpetuate this myth?

jb

I am in MD. I can probably attend. Let me know if you have found anyone else. If not, I will attend…

I really thought they were intelligent enough to change the tale of “global warming” into “climate change”, as a few did; but now they keep insisting on the same tale!!.
If your scientists are like those…just Wow!, amazing!…I got an idea: you send us some of those specimens (for free and CIF) and we send you back a few more funny monkeys from the amazon jungle. It´s a win win business!. We´ll positively “feedback” them with a bit of that common sense we are endowed with since birth.

Mike Bryant

Does snyone know why the JAXA NH Sea Ice extent is abot the same distance from the 1979-2007 average as NSIDC NH Sea Ice extent is from the 1979-2000 average?
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/daily.html

steve

LOL!!
Is ABC affiliated with ONN? (Onion News Network).
These guys crack me up 🙂

juandos

US government tax receipts down 27% in March.
Who is going to pay to perpetuate this myth?
“…
Well if the SUPREME GORON has his way all us Bernie Madoff types will have to even give up more of our earnings to finance that boondoggle…

carlbrannen

I think that it’s human nature to think in terms of “sinners”. Once you find a sinner, you blame everything on him/it. Now it’s CO2. It seems to be pretty easy to get a lot of people to believe this sort of thing, provided that you can make some sort of a weak case for it. The argument works best when you have lots of sins to connect the sinner with.
The worst example of this was when substantial percentages of the German population blamed the banks busted in the Great Depression, the starvation blockade after the end of WW1, the threat of societal collapse due to Communism, the hyperinflation of the 1920s, and the unemployment of the 1930s, all on the Jews.

Squidly

jack mosevich (16:06:11) :
The last phrase of CATHERINE BRAHIC’s column is “watch this space…”
Well, I am still watching..
While trying to find if she did post an update (I could not find any) I came across this: (anti-skeptic “facts”)

Jack, I particularly like her piece entitled “Climate change: A guide for the perplexed “ where she states “Yes, there are still big uncertainties in some predictions, but these swing both ways. For example, the response of clouds could slow the warming or speed it up.
Could slow or speed up warming? Sounds to me like she should first do a little reading of her own before attempting to write such a guide, perhaps become a little less perplexed herself?

Squidly

I’m sorry, I guess it was Michael Le Page that actually wrote that, she just linked to it. Apparently Michael is the perplexed one. 😉

dreamin2222

“I am still waiting for David Barber, of the Univeristy of Manitoba, to respond to my $1000 challenge. He predicted that the arctic will be ice free by the summer of 2015. I proposed a wager. I am still waiting.”
I challenged one of them to a wager about a year ago. He ducked. These folks remind me of the alleged psychics whom James Randi is always trying to debunk:
(1) They are great at predicting stuff after it’s happened.
(2) The predictions they do make are chock full of “could” “might” and other weasel words.
(3) They resist the opportunity to put their claims to an actual controlled, objective test.
(4) They get very defensive and angry when confronted by legitimate skepticism.

crosspatch

“In fact Dr. Budyko (Dr,. Mikhail I. Budyko) argues that an ice-free Arctic Ocean is the “normal” situation.”
It depends on the timescale. If you look on a scale of, say, a million years, glaciation is the “normal” state of things and warm interglacial conditions that we are in now are the temporary “blips”. Homo Sapiens have not yet experienced a change from interglacial to glaciation. It is going to be an interesting ride.

kim

All Points Alert: the naif, dhogaza, is missing from institutional care at ‘The Closed Mind’. His caregiver, the firm, silent and patient Tamino worries that he can’t survive outside the soothing echo chambered feedback of that censored environment. Anyone with any knowledge of his whereabouts, please contact authorities.
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