I was pointed to this graph by an email from WUWT reader Phil Ravenscroft and I’m reposting it here for discussion.
While the correlation looks plausible, it seems almost too good. Since the email tip for this graph did not include the source data files, I was ready to dismiss it.
UPDATE: my first impression was the correct one – see comments
But in doing my own research, I found myself being led back to late John Daly and his references to Theodor Landscheidt in this page. While I don’t put much stock in Landscheidt’s barycentric theories, I’ve never known John Daly to pursue a wild hare. Looking further, in the peer reviewed literature, there is this paper:
Connection between ENSO phenomena and solar and geomagnetic activity (PDF) by M A. Nuzhdina, Astronomical Observatory of Kiev National T. Shevchenko University, Kiev, Ukraine in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2002) 2: 83–89. European Geophysical Society.
I find this passage interesting:
The analysis of planetary fields of pressure shows that they
are connected both with the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycles
(Wagner, 1971). The atmospheric barometric centers,
Icelandic and Aleut depressions, Pacific, Siberian, Azores
anticyclones in the northern hemisphere, displace close to
the maxima of 11-year solar cycles. The Azores and Icelandic
barometric centers tend to displace on the east close
to the maximum of a solar cycle (Herman and Goldberg,
1978). The clockwise circulation, connected with Azores anticyclone,
causes passat winds in the north-east direction.
The response of barometric formations at the midday regions
of the Earth (namely, recess or filling of cyclones or
strengthening or destruction of anticyclones) depends upon
tbe sign of the magnetic field of the sunspot which is crossing
the central meridian of the Sun (Nuzhdina and Barkova,
1983). Spontaneous phenomena of solar activity (solar
flares) and crossings by the Earth of an IMF sector boundary
are accompanied by changes of atmospheric pressure and
cyclonic activity in some regions Mustel, 1972; Roberts and
Olsen, 1973; Herman and Goldberg, 1978). A low-pressure
region in the gulf of Alaska is more significant, when the
IMF is directed away from the Sun, than towards (Wilcox,
1978).
The authors conclude:
– QB and QA oscillations in ENSO data are coherent with
the same oscillation in Ap-index and Wolf number data. 5.3-year oscillation is coherent in ENSO and Wolf number data.
– In our opinion, cyclic dynamics of ENSO phenomena
are due to solar activity and geomagnetic variations.
It is background long-period variations on which high frequency
oscillations are imposed.
This is an interesting concept and worth further discussion. My goal in posting this is to have our team of WUWT readers take a good hard look at this and see if the SOI – Ap graph has any merit.
I’m traveling today, so have at it. Please, please, keep on topic. Lately people have just been posting random links and OT’s.
Bill – Take a look at
http://www.imagenerd.com/uploads/t_est_03-0KLEO.gif
This shows the Hadcet data and sunspot activity, using spectral analysis.
The top illustration shows both the unfiltered and filtered temperature, and sunspot activity plotted below. It would appear that the 10 year solar cycle is reflected in some way to the temp., and existence of a strong correlation.
How many long range ENSO forecasters are amongst this group? And if so how many long range forecasts have you made and from how far out. And what methodology do you consider if you do not heavily rely upon space weather ? Which I do.
Kelvin Kubala: You asked, “Thanks Bob, would it be possible to show a comparison again, but with a 5 year lag between these two.”
Here’s the unsmoothed data with the AP Index lagged 60 months:
http://i44.tinypic.com/rsdm2o.jpg
And here it is smoothed with a 12-month filter with the AP Index lagged 60 months:
http://i43.tinypic.com/6jplb5.jpg
We can lag and invert and filter all you want, but we’re not going to get those two signals to correlate, as far as I can see.
MartinGAtkins: You wrote, “Fair enough. When I eyeballed the graph it look like that is what had been done. Of course that means that they casually correlate in the opposite direction.”
But the AP Index data used in the original graph is in question. Maybe it was the AP Index data was inverted originally, but using the data provided by Leif, there is no correlation–raw or inverted.
Regards
David Thomson (05:39:01) :
I’m presently working on a website tying together many independent researchers’ theories. This ties in well with the barycenter theory and Oliver Manuel’s neutron core model of the Sun. The barycenter cycle appears to cause the magnetic neutron core of the Sun to flip every eleven years. We are presently in an extremely rare situation where the barycenter follows tightly to the surface of the Sun for an extended period of time, thus the solar neutron core is not being tugged by gravity to flip. The effect will likely last longer than a weaker event during the Maunder Minimum.
It will be another month or so before the web pages are published, but I’m giving a heads up if others are interested in starting a parallel inquiry.
This might be interesting to watch…..will the poles change polarity like they have in the previous 200 years?
My research suggests we are in for a weak Dalton type event…I would be interested to see your data explaining a Maunder plus event.
erlhapp (04:29:11) :
I see no reference to the amplified variation of temperature between 400hP and the tropopause and its relation to ozone content and the solar QBO.
I wouldn’t expect you to, that was the whole point, as there isn’t any. Try to research if there is any other explanation out there [there is]. Surely there must be lots of research done on the amplified variation, or are you trying to tell me that nobody has ever noticed this before?
Personally, I like the barycentric theory originated by Jose and advanced by Landscheidt. I like direct physical causation.
On Geoff Sharp’s site
http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2009/04/11/new-angular-momentum-graph/
there is a curious post by Oliver K. Manuel for a paper he wrote
http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0510/0510001.pdf
and his site is referenced
http://www.omatumr.com/
I’m not sure if I buy the clothed neutron star theory for our sun but hey, how long ago would the theory galaxies wouldn’t exist if it wasn’t for the formation of massive black holes early in the Universe’s history pulling matter together have been ignored until the physical evidence became irrefutable. Then there’s the web ob dark matter and dark energy with normal matter being the exception …
On the other hand, the idea of the lighter surface of our sun being pulled around by the planets relative to its denser core (like the moon tugs Earth’s oceans) changing the regional magnetic field and solar activity is I think … solidifying the Solar Barycentric Tidal Theory.
Personally, I see most other theories as adjuncts to the action (172 year cycle) of the barycenter.
I agree the specific graph here is suspect. Maybe the author will come forward.
David Thomson (05:39:01)
Geoff Sharp (07:49:22)
len (08:03:42)
Didn’t notice David’s comment and Geoff beat me to the submit button.
I guess there’s a general consensus we are in a ‘Grand Minimum’?
Well, bully for Peter R. His credibility rises rather than sinks.
======================================
Peter Ravenscroft (06:06:35) :
Bob Tisdale is the one to brief you better on this but I’ll throw my two penny worth in. El Nino and SOI are measuring much the same thing. SOI is a measure of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) between Tahiti and Darwin. El Nino’s measures Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at the Pacific Equator.
If you invert the SOI and match it up with Nino 3.4 you should get a tight fit.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/NINO-SOI.jpg
And I think Erl’s theories are broader than Leif’s objections to them. We know climate regulation is not a simple matter. Surely there is enough power there to nudge the coupled pendulums of the oceanic oscillations.
===========================================
Peter Ravenscroft (06:06:35):
The graph was never a goer. The relationship between these two indices depends upon additional variables. But, there is a relationship between tropical temperature and the solar wind that is well documented. The problem is to understand how it works. It is complex and I don’t understand the half of it but here is a start.
What is happening in the stratosphere is very relevant to what happens in the troposphere. See the story on my blog “The atmosphere dancing in the solar wind, El Nino shows his face.”
At solar minimum there is very little geomagnetic activity testifying to a weak solar wind and low intensity short wave radiation. It is generally considered that the intensity of short wave radiation is the main determinant of ozone concentration above 200hPa. (yes, 200hPa not 100hPa). However, the true situation is otherwise:
• In the tropics under low to intermediate level solar activity like pre 1978 and post 2005 there is an inverse relationship between sea surface temperature and temperature in the lower stratosphere. High sea surface temperature indicates high levels of evaporation. Moisture is carried into the stratosphere degrading ozone and lowering temperature from 100hPa upwards.
• A La Nina cooling event of varying intensity marks solar minimum.
• Under surface cooling, ozone levels above 200hPa increase and with the increase in ozone temperature responds strongly to change in incoming Ultraviolet B and outgoing radiation from the Earth.
• A warmer upper troposphere has less ice cloud which allows more radiation to reach the surface.
• A weak level of ionising radiation results in a very compact atmosphere and dramatically reduced satellite drag. Such an atmosphere reacts strongly to slight increases in ionising radiation.
• The solar wind impacts the atmosphere only to the extent that the degree of ionisation allows. But at solar minimum when the aa indix is minimal coronal hole transition affects temperature at 100hpa. It changes on solar rotation time scales. (Rasmusson). You wont hear this from Leif.
• There is evidence that solar wind activity shifts the atmosphere from the poles towards the equator changing surface pressure and affecting the strength of the polar vortex.
• The polar vortex is antagonistic to ozone concentration reducing it as the air from the vortex is mixed into mid latitude air.
All these factors affect the parameters of the Earths climate system. From close scrutiny of the available data I observe that a strong tropical warming event occurs with the onset of increased sunspot activity even though the geomagnetic indices continue to decline. So, your correlation will be poor at that time.
The reverse effect appears after solar maximum. The atmosphere is heavily ionised and strongly reactive to the solar wind. After solar maximum tropical warming events are predictable from the aa (or Ap) index of geomagnetic activity.
A collapse in sunspot activity at solar maximum induces a tropical cooling event. Climatology (the average of recent decades) reflects this.
A collapse of sunspot and geomagnetic activity in late cycle produces the solar minimum cooling event. But minima never look the same as our experience of the recent transition confirms. So, the extent and duration of this cooling event will also vary. The SOI index tends to rise from May onwards as the sun exits the southern hemisphere. You think the La Nina is ending but you are not looking at the deseasonalised cycle, you are looking at a seasonal cycle.
So, it’s a complex story and not amenable to telling via a graph with just two axis. But this is the way that many an investigation begins.
A moment of introspection: So much of climatology is driven by green ideology and the misconceptions are so widespread and pervasive that one begins to sound like a radical subversive as soon as one opens ones mouth.
Jim Hughes (07:25:57) :
Jim, tell me how it’s done. There is many a farmer who would like to know.
David L. Hagen
I didn’t bring up swine flu for discussion, just intended to alert our peripetaeic blogger. An article or two of his seems each week to attend these alerts from commenters.
Today the story has exploded and could be a useful topic.
J. Bob (07:02:53) :
Bill – Take a look at http://www.imagenerd.com/uploads/t_est_03-0KLEO.gif
This shows the Hadcet data and sunspot activity, using spectral analysis.
The top illustration shows both the unfiltered and filtered temperature, and sunspot activity plotted below. It would appear that the 10 year solar cycle is reflected in some way to the temp., and existence of a strong correlation.
I think you are seeing the effect of all the filtering applied to the CET data.
There are peaks at
.065 = 15.4 years
.078 = 13.3 years
.088 = 11.4 years
.105 = 9.5 years
the 11.4 years may be the solar cycle but is a good 1/3rd the peak of 15.4 years
I have plotted CET SSN and about 20 other places (averaged) on the image below.
The averaged data show absolutely no 11 year cycle, The CET shows a small peak.
The only common periodic evend between sunspot number and the averaged data is at 14.4 years and that is well into the relms of noise.
In the averaged FFT there are definite peaks appearing around 2.3 years, 3.6 years, 7.76 years 18 and 31 although these 2 are hitting the resolution limits of the FFT.
From all this I would suggest that there is no effect of solar cycle SSN or TSI on temperature.
http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5025/cetssnavgfft.jpg
Some places out of the 20 averaged do have peaks arond the 11 year mark but most do not,
erlhapp (08:52:25) :
…But, there is a relationship between tropical temperature and the solar wind that is well documented. …
If you can point me at monthly tropical temperature records of about 100years length and minimal missing data then I will FFT those and see if there is an 11 year cycle.
Thanks
“From all this I would suggest that there is no effect of solar cycle SSN or TSI on temperature.”
To repeat an old saw, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence”. Lassen has already established an anticorrelation of SS cycle length and terrestrial temperature. “No effect” is hyperbolic.
TSI should be eschewed in favor of TEF. SSN is only one proxy for solar activity and its relation to TEF isn’t established in your investigation. As Mr. Vaughn has linked in an earlier thread, there are multidimensional tools that might be better suited to chaotic phenomena, the FFT isn’t necessarily revealing.
erlhapp (08:52:25) :
What is happening in the stratosphere is very relevant to what happens in the troposphere.
Things go the other way: from the surface and up.
Wave motions are a principal mode of energy transfer in the atmosphere from the surface and upwards. So important are these processes that a special session has been dedicated to then at an upcoming scientific congress:
IAGA 2009, 11th Scientific Assembly, Sopron, Hungary:
“DC.01. Atmospheric coupling processes in the equatorial region
Convective processes occurring in the equatorial atmosphere play important roles in the various upper layers of the atmosphere owing to a spectrum of waves they generate at lower levels. A variety of field experiments conducted over Indonesia, India and Brazil has demonstrated the role of tropical convection in the dynamical coupling of atmospheric and ionospheric regions over the tropics. Radio occultation experiments performed on LEO satellites have yielded useful information on tropospheric and stratospheric gravity waves originating from various sources. A number of rocket experiments performed in India have led to quantification of gravity wave contributions to the middle atmospheric SAO and QBO. GCMs have begun to address gravity wave effects by resolving them in high spatial and temporal scales. This symposium aims to address the recent advances made in our understanding of the generation and propagation characteristics of small-, intermediate-scale and large-scale wave motions generated in the lower and middle
atmosphere. Papers that deal with electrical processes of lower atmospheric origin that produce noticeable transient effects in the mesosphere are also solicited”
gary gulrud (11:03:43) :
To repeat an old saw, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence”. Lassen has already established an anticorrelation of SS cycle length and terrestrial temperature. “No effect” is hyperbolic.
But absence of evidence is not evidence either. Lassen’s work is critically flawed and has been soundly rejected.
Why don’t you simply see for yourself:
http://leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
If anything there is a [not statistically significant] positive correlation.
In this field people persist citing the same old flawed results as long as they fit their purpose.
gary gulrud (11:03:43) :
“But absence of evidence is not evidence either. Lassen’s work is critically flawed and has been soundly rejected.”
Why don’t you simply see for yourself:
A condensed version is here:
http://leif.org/research/Cycle%20Lengths%20and%20Temperatures.png
gary gulrud (11:03:43) :
TSI should be eschewed in favor of TEF. SSN is only one proxy for solar activity and its relation to TEF isn’t established in your investigation. As Mr. Vaughn has linked in an earlier thread, there are multidimensional tools that might be better suited to chaotic phenomena, the FFT isn’t necessarily revealing.
Have you figures for TEF or a plot – its not something I have come across.
I assume you are suggesting that tef is not sychronised or time related to tsi?
bill (10:27:17) :
“From all this I would suggest that there is no effect of solar cycle SSN or TSI on temperature.”
It seems that you are basing this conclusion on just FFT.
–
Re: bill (05:32:44) & (06:52:36)
I appreciate your understanding of FFT – & your contribution to this discussion. I’m also conveying that I wouldn’t stop at FFT because I am (generally) curious about details and willing to use tools that cast light from a great variety of other directions.
– – –
Bob Tisdale (07:28:30)
“We can lag and invert and filter all you want, but we’re not going to get those two signals to correlate, as far as I can see.”
I have an algorithm that checks all of the (standard) possibilities. Based on its output, your assessment is (basically) correct.
Whatever relationship may exist involves lurking conditioning variables &/or complexity (i.e. nonlinearity). Most investigators’ patience runs out when the going gets that thick – (managerial instincts kick in strongly, shutting down the investigation…. for many scientists with a lot of really interesting things on-the-go, this is just time-management …and no one should take it personally or be dissuaded…..)
– – –
I want to thank Anthony for running this thread. It caused me to track down & compare a lot of variants of the various indices. The exercise has been an eye-opener and I now have new ideas for overcoming old roadblocks. The exercise was time-consuming, but well-worthwhile.
Bill I agree 8-12 data points/cycle are not the best so I’ll re-run the graph using the monthly data, and see what falls out. Since we have a non-linear system here, changes of the output frequency (temp) are not unusual in the presence of a constant input freq (sunspot count). The 50 some year cycle was noted in a posting I made here a couple of days ago on this thread.
Leif Svalgaard (11:22:03)
Things go the other way: from the surface and up.
Wave motions are a principal mode of energy transfer in the atmosphere from the surface and upwards.
Interesting, Temperature Sprites. This sounds familiar somehow but I can’t remember most of what I hear on this topic, leaking hydrogen in direct cooled stator occupies my mind for the most part.
bill (10:34:24) :
There is no 11 year signal. A tropical cooling event occurs at both minimum and maximum.
There is a QBO signal in temperature and ozone concentration at the equator between 12°N and 12°S at all levels upwards of 200hPa. This has an average periodicy of 27.1 months for data after 1948. That periodicy is derived from changes in the polar vortex and it propagates towards the equator with a variable lag that increases towards the end of each solar cycle.
Because the warming of the ocean depends upon what happens in mid latitudes where the ozone concentration is greater these is a partial disconnect in the timing of tropical warming events.
There is another source of variation in the timing of the stratospheric QBO and warming events measured in the tropics and that is the fact that the solar wind affects the atmosphere according to the degree of ionisation. That depends upon short wave radiation. The solar wind (or geomagnetic activity) is not synchronized with peaks in short wave radiation.
In this circumstance statistical analysis will deny causation. There is no substitute for detailed examination of data and the identification of cause and effect.