I was pointed to this graph by an email from WUWT reader Phil Ravenscroft and I’m reposting it here for discussion.
While the correlation looks plausible, it seems almost too good. Since the email tip for this graph did not include the source data files, I was ready to dismiss it.
UPDATE: my first impression was the correct one – see comments
But in doing my own research, I found myself being led back to late John Daly and his references to Theodor Landscheidt in this page. While I don’t put much stock in Landscheidt’s barycentric theories, I’ve never known John Daly to pursue a wild hare. Looking further, in the peer reviewed literature, there is this paper:
Connection between ENSO phenomena and solar and geomagnetic activity (PDF) by M A. Nuzhdina, Astronomical Observatory of Kiev National T. Shevchenko University, Kiev, Ukraine in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2002) 2: 83–89. European Geophysical Society.
I find this passage interesting:
The analysis of planetary fields of pressure shows that they
are connected both with the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycles
(Wagner, 1971). The atmospheric barometric centers,
Icelandic and Aleut depressions, Pacific, Siberian, Azores
anticyclones in the northern hemisphere, displace close to
the maxima of 11-year solar cycles. The Azores and Icelandic
barometric centers tend to displace on the east close
to the maximum of a solar cycle (Herman and Goldberg,
1978). The clockwise circulation, connected with Azores anticyclone,
causes passat winds in the north-east direction.
The response of barometric formations at the midday regions
of the Earth (namely, recess or filling of cyclones or
strengthening or destruction of anticyclones) depends upon
tbe sign of the magnetic field of the sunspot which is crossing
the central meridian of the Sun (Nuzhdina and Barkova,
1983). Spontaneous phenomena of solar activity (solar
flares) and crossings by the Earth of an IMF sector boundary
are accompanied by changes of atmospheric pressure and
cyclonic activity in some regions Mustel, 1972; Roberts and
Olsen, 1973; Herman and Goldberg, 1978). A low-pressure
region in the gulf of Alaska is more significant, when the
IMF is directed away from the Sun, than towards (Wilcox,
1978).
The authors conclude:
– QB and QA oscillations in ENSO data are coherent with
the same oscillation in Ap-index and Wolf number data. 5.3-year oscillation is coherent in ENSO and Wolf number data.
– In our opinion, cyclic dynamics of ENSO phenomena
are due to solar activity and geomagnetic variations.
It is background long-period variations on which high frequency
oscillations are imposed.
This is an interesting concept and worth further discussion. My goal in posting this is to have our team of WUWT readers take a good hard look at this and see if the SOI – Ap graph has any merit.
I’m traveling today, so have at it. Please, please, keep on topic. Lately people have just been posting random links and OT’s.
Charged particles and clouds. What’s so hard to believe about that? Granted, conclusive research is still wanting, but on its face, relationships between non terrestrial factors, which then affect distribution and density of charged particles, which then affect cloud formation, is completely plausible. An area crying out for research money.
Beyond AnonyMoose: Is Climate Change linked to geomagnetic changes led to this 2001 paper Connection between ENSO phenomena and solar and geomagnetic activity by M. A. Nuzhdina, Astronomical Observatory of Kiev National T. Shevchenko University, Kiev, Ukraine
ABSTRACT
Connections between El Ni˜no – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and indices of solar activity and geomagnetic disturbance were investigated. Spectral analysis of the ENSO-data was carried out. Oscillations with periods of about 11–12, 5–6, 2–3 years were found. Correlative and cross-spectral analysis was carried out to estimate connections between ENSO data, and solar and geomagnetic indices. Functions of coherency and phase were calculated.
Fascinating. It looks like there is something going on there.
On the massive thread about naming the minimum someone asked about the CERN CLOUD work. According to the original schedule it should start to yield completed output sometime next year:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=31185
I have not seen interim status reports and do not know if they are still on track or delayed.
If the graph is showing a real phenomenon, does it mean that the Southern Oscillation and the other oscillations are actually being advanced through their phases by the changes in the solar wind? How else could the relationship be so consistent? My guess would have been that the various oscillations are governed by internal forces that are subject to external modulation only over longer time frames, as the earth’s average temperature warms or cools say. But this graph gives a different picture, where the course of the oscillations is being pushed along “in real time” as it were.
Leif,
“The standard atmospheric models predict a larger variation at height”.
I would be pleased to see a reference or two. Nice to know the mechanism etc.
A quick check reveals that, at the equator, the atmosphere dampens the amplitude of temperature variation so that it is smaller at all levels up to 500hPa than at the surface. Above 400hPa the interplay of forces that promote an August maximum from OLR in place of an April-May maximum at the surface determines the issue. The reaction of ozone to OLR is a critical dynamic determining the amplitude of the range between 400hPa and 100hPa. The impact of ozone in determining atmospheric temperature at all levels between 200hPa and the upper stratosphere is the crux of the QBO variation. The QBO can be traced in temperature data, wind, ozone content and other trace constituents.
This is the reason for the correlation between solar activity and climate found by the Berlin Group including Karen Labitzke whose work in this area and also in combination with Harry Van Loon I have never seen you reference or acknowledge. There is a bigger story.
There is plenty of data. What is required is a unifying theory.
Leif,
“but since ozone is a powerful greenhouse gas it helps [minutely] along with the other GHGs in keeping us warm”.
Disagree: see http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/04/24/the-gaping-hole-in-greenhouse-theory/
A paper by Vovk and Egorova had this to say (although it is AE and not Ap): “An increase in the SOI indices is preceded one or two months before by a considerable increase in the monthly average values of the magnetic AE indices”
I have explored some interesting connections between the temperature trends and Earth/Sun magnettic phenomena -see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/EarthMagneticField.htm
erlhapp (10:33:46) :
“The standard atmospheric models predict a larger variation at height”.
I would be pleased to see a reference or two. Nice to know the mechanism etc.
I have in the past given you several. do I really have to dig those up again and again? To stray further from the topic? How about you commenting on the specific Figure we have before us?
There is plenty of data. What is required is a unifying theory.
But we have plenty of theory too, and some even based on sound physics.
erlhapp (10:38:34) :
Disagree
I can live with that, so we scratch tropospheric ozone as involved in heating the surface and lower troposphere.
I wonder whether this “corrugation correlation” is the result of a spreadsheet formula error copied down an entire column. A few thoughts:
(a) A form of independent peer review is needed as early as possible in the development of a paper, experiment, or model.
(b) Incestuous peer review panels full of yes-people brought in for a last minute look-over are a waste of time.
(c) We need to spend less money on fabulous models, more on truly independent peer review. Science has moved on; the old methodology doesn’t work anymore. Only early, disinterested peer review can save Science.
Just looking at the graphs, it looks pretty suspicious so I am skeptical.
I am currently developing some spectral analysis software for geophysical data that, if applied to these data, might actually be fairly enlightening as to their nature & relationship to each other & other related datasets.
It will be a few months before I am ready to post anything on this topic however.
The “magnet in his pocket” article mentions these as data sources (although does not state that the graph was created from those):
erlhapp (10:33:46) :
I would be pleased to see a reference or two. Nice to know the mechanism etc.
I have in the past given you several. do I really have to dig those up again and again?
Here is one example:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1114867v1
Why don’t you do some research to see what other people say about the temperature variations. This is a well known phenomenon and there must be lots of papers on that. If you are halfway correct, most papers should express puzzlement at this unexplained result…
Well I too found the match of those two graphs to be quite striking.
But I am also quite ignorant of exactly what Southern Oscillation Index or Ap Index are, so the thesis is quite meaningless to me.
I’m generally suspicious of the word “index”, as the only such term known to me is the “refractive Index” of optical materials; which is simply the ratio of two velocities; that of light in a medium, and the value of (c) which is defined exactly.
The graphs as plotted show a striking match at certain time intervals, but one cannot see how the finer detail matches up.
So (a) I don’t even know what I am looking at, and (b) in view of Leif’s remarks, I become suspicious of the validity of the data.
Those are not a very stable platform on which to try and construct a cause and effect relationship. But I am reading all your comments and explanations; once again this one seems to have lit up the statisticians.
But I still don’t see the proof that frogs become stone deaf when you cut off all four of their legs
Unfortunately, the web has become too easy a vehicle for all the leg pullers out there; I think I will sit this one out.
George
When reading above of “correlations too good to be true,” and “poor and shoddy ‘evidence’,” I immediately thought of Al Gore’s ice core correlations of temperature and carbon dioxide.
Alan Cheetham (10:39:54) : “…I have explored some interesting connections between the temperature trends and Earth/Sun magnetic phenomena -see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/EarthMagneticField.htm”
Interesting, Alan. Looking at the diagram
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/EarthMagneticField_files/image022.jpg
makes me wonder (1) what effect, if any, does the interaction of varying solar wind and CME’s with the Earth’s magnetic field have on the average temperature of the night sky? (2) Is the night sky temperature assumed constant with time in the models? (3) If so, at what point in the solar cycle was the temperature (or pattern thereof) measured?
Australian farmers certainly think that this correlation is likely:
http://sl.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/general/sunspots-linked-to-soi/1237781.aspx
.
Baker studied the correlation between SOI and solar cycles:
Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia
ROBERT G.V. BAKER, Division of Geography and Planning, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. Email: rbaker1@une.edu.au
Geographical Research, Volume 46 Issue 4, Pages 380 – 398, DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER (DOI) 10.1111/j.1745-5871.2008.00537.x About DOI
ABSTRACT
KEYWORDS
Southern Oscillation Index • sunspot cycle • Hale Cycle • Gleissberg charting • rainfall patterns • drought prediction • climate change
Nicola Scafetta & B. J. West show correlation between solar cycles and surface temperature:
Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West, “Is climate sensitive to solar variability?” Physics Today, 3 50-51 (2008). PDF
Bob Tidsale’s 12 month running-average graph of the AP- index appears similar to Scafetta’s figure on p 51.
Don’t want to feed panic but swine flu story is breaking big.
Basil (08:12:39) :
I am probably prejudiced and think that “theory” means a “mathematical theory” that can be based back on axioms, not a simple hypothesis or logical inductive reasoning.
Otherwise I do not disagree with your statements.
gary galrud
I don’t see any correlation between swine flu with solar cycles or southern oscillation index. Please post on the National Enquirer etc.
erlhapp (08:13:29) : “Ozone is carried into the upper troposphere in high pressure cells. . . ”
Did I miss something? Does air not descend in high pressure cells?
David L. Hagen
Anthony seemed to be using this as an ‘open thread’ and would be checking it occasionally. I was just giving a heads up.
Yes, he did ask to stay on topic, but then he also asked for a certain gravitas which I didn’t believe I was interrupting.
jorgekafkazar (11:40:04)
“[…] makes me wonder (1) what effect, if any, does the interaction of varying solar wind and CME’s with the Earth’s magnetic field have on the average temperature of the night sky? (2) Is the night sky temperature assumed constant with time in the models? […]”
I’ve been waiting for weeks to see someone mention something like this. A theme for dozens of WUWT threads….
Alan Cheetham
Nice summation, thanks.