When somebody mentions “Maldives”, the image above of a tropical paradise often springs to mind. Andy Revkin wrote a story recently about the Maldives on his NYT Dot Earth blog that provoked quite an email exchange that I was privy to today. Here are some highlights. First the article:
Maldives Seeks Carbon Neutrality by 2020
By Andrew C. Revkin March 16, 2009, 8:39 am
No spot in the Maldives is more than six feet above sea level. (Click here for a narrated slide show describing this reporter’s first visit to the Maldives, in 1980.)
The Maldives, a strand of coral atolls south of India, is just about the most tenuous country on Earth. No patch of land in the island chain, where the population has risen from 200,000 to 400,000 in the last 25 years, is more than six feet or so above sea level. Even modest projections for a rise in sea level from global warming would increase flooding from storm surges. A higher rise could render hundreds of islands uninhabitable.
That’s why the country has paid particularly close attention, since the early days of discussion of the issue, to scientists who warn of a growing human influence on climate and sea levels. On Sunday, the new president of the island nation, Mohamed Nasheed, prodded the world to get serious about cutting emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by pledging, in a short piece in England’s Observer newspaper, to make the Maldives the first carbon-neutral country within a decade:
Many politicians’ response to the looming catastrophe, however, beggars belief. Playing a reckless game of chicken with Mother Nature, they prefer to deny, squabble and procrastinate rather than heed the words of those who know best…. Spearheaded by a switch from oil to 100% renewable energy production within a decade, the Maldives will no longer be a net contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
The announcement was made in the Maldives, but synchronized with the London premiere of ” The Age of Stupid,” a new film on global warming and oil that is a mix of documentary, dramatization and animation. (I haven’t seen it yet, but the description reminds me of the work of Randy Olson, particularly his mock documentary ” Sizzle.”) Officials in the Maldives made the decision after soliciting a report on how to cut fossil fuel use and otherwise trim the country’s climate footprint from Chris Goodall and Mark Lynas, British environmentalists and authors of books on energy and climate.
The proposal recommended a mix of wind turbines, rooftop photovoltaic panels and a backup power plant that burns coconut husks (coconut is a substantial export), among other steps. The estimated cost: about $1.1 billion over 10 years. But the new energy options could pay off in the long run by greatly reducing the country’s reliance on imported oil, the report concluded.
The early concern about global warming by officials in the Maldives was visible as far back as 1988, as shown in this vignette from my first (and long out of print) book on climate, “Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast”:
Perhaps the most straightforward projections of what a greenhouse future will bring in coming decades are those related to rising seas. A foot-and-a-half rise doesn’t sound like much – unless you live in a place that just barely pokes above the ocean. I learned this when I went to Toronto in 1988 to report on the First International Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. Most of the discussions centered on devising strategies to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from automobiles, power plants, and the burning of tropical forests. Among those in attendance was Hussein Manikfan, who holds the title Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Permanent Representative to the United Nations from the republic of Maldives.
At first it seemed odd to find a representative from the Maldives at the meeting. The country, a sprinkling of 1,190 coral islets in the Indian Ocean southwest of Sri Lanka, has no tropical forests, hardly any automobiles, and little industry beyond the canning of bonito. I spoke for a while with Manikfan. Why was he in Toronto? “To find out how much longer my country will exist,” was his simple reply.
Manikfan is worried because few of the islands have any point that is more than six feet above sea level. Even now, many of the atolls are awash during strong storms. The fear is that Manikfan’s nation – with a tradition of independence dating back thousands of years and its own language and alphabet – might have to be abandoned altogether, as if it were a slowly sinking ship.
Now for the geographically challenged, the map:
Dr. Don Easterbrook responded today to Andy Revkin with this email, cc:d to me
Andy,
I just read your article on sea level alarm in the Maldives. You may not be aware of a study there by Nils-Axel Morner, a Swedish sea level expert (former president of the INQUA Commission of Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution). Attached is photographic evidence by Morner that sea level in the Maldives is not rising relative to the coasts but has indeed fallen! Global sea level has been rising at a rate of about a foot per century but the Maldives are either rising or subject to a local sea level anomaly related to ocean currents and evaporation rates. Thus, the ‘poster child’ of Gore’s sea level alarm is invalid.
Don
The photographs he attached are interesting to say the least, click for larger images:
And soon others were jumping in. Tom Harris quoted a study from Nils-Axel Mörner and provided a plot from Nils-Axel Mörner’s study of sea level using C14 isotope dating.
Harris wrote:
While Andrew does not personally say that sea level rise will swamp the Maldives soon, he implies he agrees with the scenario by including nothing at all to counter the validity of the Maldivian announcement. I suggest Andrew read about Morner’s work and get an expansion of the below misleading piece published right away. You can download (for the next 7 days) one of Dr. Morner’s most recent papers on the topic at http://tinyurl.com/dhz6gk . Note the below graph from that report, especially.
Note also the Feb 2009 report of the SWEDISH SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES NETWORK at Lund U (a large, respected and very old school in Sweden) at http://www.sasnet.lu.se/maldives09.html, in which they conclude, “In June 2004, Prof. Mörner published his research results in an article titled ”The Maldives Project: a future free from sea-level flooding” in the Contemporary South Asia magazine. However, the Maldivian government did not react positively to these findings since they went against the official policy, even though the facts presented seem to be beyond dispute and are confirmed in private by individual Maldivian researchers.” I have submitted a letter to the editor to the NYT on this and I’ll let people know if it is published.
Andy Revkin responded with:
Has anyone on this list assessed this Indian Ocean / Pacific sea level study — http://bit.ly/IndianOceanSeaLevel — which seems to challenge Morner’s analysis?
To which Nils-Axel Mörner replied:
The paper by Church et al. represent desk-work at the computers. Tide gauges have to be treated with care. There are pitfalls both withrespect to stability (compaction, etc) and cyclic patterns (disqualifying regressionline approaches).Our Mildives story is based on multiple criteria: off-shore, on-shore, lagoonal, back-shore, swamp environment.Ditailed morphology (in different environmental settings) is combined with stratigraphy and biological index + numerous C14-dates.Also, our team of researchers is very strong.
Have you heard of the Australian study on 12 Pacific islands, some of them mentioned by Church? They used much more reliable equipment than the others. They claimed an upward trend but this was done by the dishonest use of a linear regression which made use of the temporary depression on all the records caused by the 1988 hurricane. If you look at the actual records in their report (attached) and ignore this temporary event you will find that there was no change for the last sixteen years. The website of the Australian Bureau of meteorology has individual and summarizing reports on this project at
The Geology speaks for itself!As Morner points out, Church,, White, and Hunter applied a number of regional ‘corrections’ to the basic tide gauge record and calculated averages of a large region to arrive at their conclusion that sea level was rising in the Maldives. This is akin to putting one foot in a bed of hot coals and the other in a bucket of ice, averaging the temperature, and concluding that you should be quite comfortable! Putting aside the arguments around tide gauge levels, the geologic evidence appears to be indisputable and indicates conclusively that the sea levels at the sites shown in Morners paper cannot be submerging. You’re a smart guy–look at the geologic evidence in the two attached photos and judge for yourself.Figure 1 shows a post-1970 wave-cut notch eroded into the pre-1970 shore platform. You cannot do that with a submerging coastline. (The platform should be under water if the island is submerging, not being eroded at a lower level). This is a classic example of an emergent shoreline, the kind you can see in any geologic textbook.Figure 2 shows the present high tide line, the 1970 shoreline, and a pre-1970 shoreline. If the island has been submerging since 1970, as contended by Church,, White, and Hunter, the present high tide line should be above the 1970 shoreline, not below it!Any regional analysis of average sea level changes cannot trump the geologic evidence at the two sites shown. The geologic evidence is site specific, just like each foot in the coals and ice bucket. The average is meaningless.
So it boils down to this: Who would you rather believe? People doing studies on-site and gathering photographic evidence that shows clear geologic actions of lowered sea levels on the islands, or somebody sitting in an office analyzing and doing regressions on tide gauge data when they’ve never even done and checking on the quality control of the gauges themselves? Here’s one from Tasmania from this CSIRO report:
I’m sure that old algae covered dock is stable enough to use for “calibration”. Surely no possibility of shifting, or sinking there.
Here’s a somewhat better tide gauge placement of a gauge in the Adriatic sea.
The description reads:
The tide gauge Luka Koper is located in northern part of Adriatic in Koper bay at the industrial pier grounded to the bottom with piles.
Here’s one in Alaska:
Here’s another, at Cape Ferguson in Australia, from BOM:
IMHO The idea that a dock (or piling) is a long term stable measurement platform is simply ludicrous. Piles sink, structures decay, boats whack them, pounding wave action loosens their grip. One feature missing from all these old style tide gauges is any way to reference the long term level of the gauge itself. In the era of GPS we can start doing this, but in the years past, how much is from simple sinking of the pilings over time? When you are looking for millimeters per year, such things become significant.
Gee, and I thought weather station measurement issues were bad. Scientists really do need to get out more. Perhaps the next IPCC conference can be in the Maldives instead of Bali. I volunteer to run beach tours to show water level notches. – Anthony
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PS: A way to check out what Mörner actually said would be for someone to translate the Swedish article cited in the link above, namely:
http://www.ystadallehanda.se/article/20080327/SIMRISHAMN/141727381/1365
Well, I guess it’ll have to be someone who speaks it, because I used a translator, and got this wonderful mess:
IfOf, Ifs, {Om} oneones, a, {ett} couple{par} weekly{veckor} ska fornminnet soon{strax} north{norr} ifof, ifs, {om} Vitemölla “röntgas”. Geologidocent Nils- AxisShoulder, Axle, {Axel} Mörner and{och} arkeoastronom Bob UPHOLD{G} Wrap{Lind} is{är} inons, on, ins, {i} full{full} passagesvoyage, {färd} withtoo, {med} preparationsthe preparations, {förberedelserna}. OneOnes, A, {Ett} haggtornssnår ska plunder{skövlas} forbefore, bow, to, with, too, {för} thatto, {att} 17 “nya” stone{stenar} ska becomebess, bes, be, {bli} visible{synliga}.
LSÄ More{MER }
Ls ä more Bob UPHOLD{G} Wrap{Lind} exhaust petrol{avgav} bulletin{rapport }
TheThey, It, {Det} am actingis trading, is acting, are trading, are acting, am trading, {handlar} ifof, ifs, {om} fornminnet aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} Bob UPHOLD{G} Wrap{Lind} dptö totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} Heimdalls stone{stenar}. Under{Enligt} him{honom} ä substitute{r} thethey, it, {det} aans, an, ones, one, {en} kultplats was modelingwere modeling, {formad} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} aans, an, ones, one, {en} grandstrong, large, great, big, {stor} calendaralmanacs, {kalender}.
IfOf, Ifs, {Om} oneones, a, {ett} couple{par} weekly{veckor} ska Mr.{hr}ä fretasö aans, an, ones, one, {en} geofysisk underskningö. At a{Med ett} srskiltä mtinstrumentä mtsä theythe, them, {de} magnetic{magnetiska} fltenä inons, on, ins, {i} fieldfields, {marken}.
– Nrä fieldfields, {marken} pressure{tryckts} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} frndrasöä theythe, them, {de} magnetic{magnetiska} vgornaå. WesUss, Us, We, {Vi} ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} exculpateexonerate, {rent} of{av} find{hitta} track{fotspr}å behind{efter} mnniksornaä aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} livedwere living, was living, {levde} Mr.{hr}ä, sgerä Mrnerö.
– And{Och} we havewe’ve, {vi har} aans, an, ones, one, {en} devil{satans} luckride, trip, {tur}. På Ale Stone{Stenar} strå stone{stenarna} på sameunion, {samma} territoriessoil, territory, {mark} aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} theythe, them, {de} always{alltid} stttå. Mr.{Hr}ä hadhas, have, {har} heal{hela} omrdetå bury{begravts} inons, on, ins, {i} flydsand. Drmedä have we{har vi} heal{hela} thethey, it, {den} originalprimal, {ursprungliga} markytan orrdö.
Utifrnå thethey, it, {den} geofysiska mtningenä draw{ritas} aans, an, ones, one, {en} mapsmap, {karta} över thethey, it, {den} ancient{forna} emporiummarket, {marknivn}å.
– Vrå frhoppningö ä substitute{r} sedan thatto, {att} kunna grvaä awayout, outs, off, {bort} thethey, it, {det} circaroughly, {cirka} metrethe metre, {meter} fog{tjocka} patch{jordlager} aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} partpartly, partially, partial, {delvis} dljerö stone{stenarna}, sgerä Wrap{Lind}.
Under{Enligt} Mrnerö ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} mtningenä manifestindicate, usher, song, {visa} emporiummarket, {marknivn}å, but{men} ä vein{ven} leavingremains, {rester} of{av} eventualif any, {eventuella} anlggningraä.
– SelfMes, Mess, Me, {Jag} hope{hoppas} thatto, {att} wesuss, us, we, {vi} ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} find{hitta} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} example{exempel} aans, an, ones, one, {en} pallissad så thatto, {att} wesuss, us, we, {vi} ablemay, tin be, tin, {kan} date{datera} fornminnet.
Ävein{ven} Mrnerö ä substitute{r} ö implement{vertygad} ifof, ifs, {om} thatto, {att} omrdetå aans, an, ones, one, {en} gngå eachevery, puss, pus, where, {var} aans, an, ones, one, {en} important{viktig} placeseat, space, niche, location, {plats}.
– AphoristicNeat, Ingenious, {Fynd} am exposingshows, is showing, is indicating, is guiding, is exposing, are showing, are indicating, are guiding, are exposing, am showing, am indicating, am guiding, {visar} thatto, {att} grekiska btarå arrivedwere coming, were arriving, was coming, was arriving, come, came, {kom} here{hit} frö thatto, {att} hmtaä brnstenä. TheThey, It, {Det} Mr.{hr}ä eachevery, puss, pus, where, {var} oneones, a, {ett} Greek{grekernas} Hongkong.
Omrdetå aswhom, who, as a matter of, as a, {som} Wrap{Lind} and{och} Bob open airopen-air, {frilade} igrå am layinglays, laying, lay, is lying, is laying, are lying, are laying, am lying, {ligger} 160 metrethe metre, {meter} stone{vster}ä ifof, ifs, {om} solkalenderns centre{centrum}. INONS, ON, INS, {I} fornminnesregistret finddiscover, {finns} capacitiesthe capacity, the capacities, sites, places, gramophone record, capacity, {platsen} record{registrerad} paternal{som en} stenkrets beastthe beast, {bestende}å of{av} 11 stone{stenar}. Wrap{Lind} hadhas, have, {har} yet{dock} funnit 17 stone{stenar} product{varav} television{tv}å strå directright, due, directly, {rakt} up{upp}.
– They have{De har} aans, an, ones, one, {en} directthrough, {direkt} relation{relation} totoward, towards, with, supplies, supply, unto, until, {till} theythe, them, {de} övriga stone{stenarna} inons, on, ins, {i} anlggningenä. Nrä brake{buskarna} ä substitute{r} outouts, {borta} am becomingstays, is being, is becoming, gets, get, becomes, are being, are becoming, am being, {blir} thethey, it, {det} än more{mer} distinctlymanifestly, {tydligt}, sgerä Wrap{Lind}.
Emma Lawesson
Honestly, I can’t read it without laughing. Anyone know Swedish?
Has anyone considered the fact that coral grows in analysis of what will happen to low lying atolls if sea levels rise. Unless the sea level increase is very rapid isnt it possible that coral formations will become taller as coral grows in the shallower warmer water it prefers?
rickM (06:45:41) :
Anthony and fellow posters,
I’m a disabled veteran witha long career in EOD in the Navy. As part of my post service rehabilitation, I’ve been going back to school. I thoroughly enjoyed oceanography, but know their just isn’t enough time nor job opportunites for me in that field of study.
I’m taking a course in geology which starts in just 2 weeks. One of the course books is a bright red book on global warming and the IPCC. I’m shuddering as I enjoy basic science, but have no idea how I’m going to survive this as a skeptic. The environment at this college is one of open advocacy, no questions asked and worse, not to be asked or challenged.
Rick, you’re paying for that course so you have every right to ask questions and challenge what you are being taught provided you have evidence. If you are discriminated against in any way or you feel they mark your papers down because your course work doesn’t comply, you have every right to take legal action.
Amid all the flow of news, I’m definitely going to do a thorough review of what is known, and not known, about sea-level changes in various regions (both from land rise or fall and sea rise or fall).
Fascinating arena. As I wrote not long ago, Juneau, Alaska, is rising so fast out of the sea that folks are scrambling to claim the new oceanfront property. So, yes, more to come.
I’ve gotten burned enough in the past by Faux Liberals – who have usurped the term “liberal” for themselves while attempting to falsely convey the idea that the term still means what the “liberal” in “Classical Liberal”
Exactly. These big government neo-Marxists have been usurping everything they can so they can brainwash the youth. Their ideologies are not liberal, not progressive, undemocratic and not environmentally friendly yet they call themselves democrats, liberals, progressive and Greens.
The more sanctimonious someone tries to appear the more they are masking the truth. Just look at Al Gore’s awful “I Care” expression throughout his documentary. Made me want to laugh and vomit at the same time.
You begin to wonder as people have already here, whether the gravey-train might just dry up without disaster on the doorstep of the Maldives. There must be some tax-dollars/pounds/euros/yen on offer somewhere?
One also wonders from articles by Lord Monckton whether sticky fingers or enterprising adjustments of the data went into producing a global sea-level by 2100 of 7m (7000mm) as opposed to 7cm which is the actual estimate given by others. Wouldn’t have taken too much to omit the “c” & just leave the “m”. After all they made a complete hash of the first draft of the SPM 2007 sea-level rise table, SPM-0, with decimal points all over the place & with numbers that simply didn’t add up, then after Monckton pointed it out to them they sneakily withdrew it, changed the numbers all round, including the table number to SPM-1 in the re-draft. Those 2,500 scientists, 400 authors, 800 co-authors & 140 governments around the world reviewing the whole report missed it completly so why should we believe anything they say? Therefore they can be wrong! QED.
I’ll say it again, Table SPM-1, 1.8mm/yr ± 0.5mm/yr between 1961-1993, & 3.2mm/yr ±0.7mm/yr between 1993 & 2003 are the same figure, i.e. 1.8 + 0.5 =2.3mm/yr, & 3.2 – 0.7 = 2.4mm/yr, with 2.3mm/yr being the long-term averaged figure over 60-70 years, they really are the same number to all intents & purposes. Somebody has been playing the numbers game I suspect. To be frank, who on earth in their right mind wants to try & measure sea-level to the nearest 10th decimal place, the miniscus would swallow up that no problem! Perhaps it stems from wanting to look technically minded showing a figure of “great accuracy”, easier to have simply said sea-level rise is between 1mm/yr & 4mm/yr with the average being 2.5mm/yr! Just as meaningful.
BTW great link to Nils-Axel Morner video. Why is it that the anti-AGW team members argue their point in a cool, relaxed, quiet, thoughtful, & considered manner, yet the AGW camp is screaming from the belfry of their new church of impending doom & gloom, the end of the world is nigh?
I watched the last of an excellent series last night on Darwin, by BBC journalist/presenter Andrew Marr, saw most but not all the programmes, but I was just waiting for the Global Warming line to feed its way into the closing moments & sure enough, I wasn’t dissappointed. Marr has of course now gone down in my estimation, but he can’t help it.
Sorry, that should have read 3.1mm/yr ±0.7mm/yr & not 3.2mm/yr! It’s a Friday afternoon after all! Demob happy.
Dave Andrews (07:23:01):
The corals that make up the atoll reefs and islands rise from a submarine ridge that is nearly 400m (1300ft) below sea level.
Maldives coralline atolls have been formed by the total reduction of a volcanic bed beneath the ocean. The volcanic bed roofed the same area the Maldives occupy at present. As the volcanic activity declined, the volcanic bed was sunk gradually. Eventually, the islands ended being submerged totally; nevertheless, the corals continued growing at their perimeters. The continued growth of these coralline reefs upwards on the submerged volcanic bed gave rise to the formation of coral atolls. So it has nothing to do with risings of sea levels, but with sinking of a volcanic stack.
Important addendum: At its maximum growth rate (i.e. 80 mm per year), corals would spend 5000 years for growing 400 meters upwards. This record doesn’t allocate room for a decadal unexpected elevation of the sea levels.
Ian M
ref ad hom attacks on Morner.
These posts were made earlier on this thread which partly answers one of your questions. It is a favourite tactic to try to discredit sceptical scientists with ad hom attacks, either by scorn at a hobby or belief, or more subtly in the ‘more in sorrow than in anger’ type comment as illustrated by these posts
King of Cool (01:41:27) : said
“The Maldives Tree
Anthony, I have a completely open mind on sea level rises or falls in the Maldives or in the rest of the world. I know your web is completely transparent and open to all input. I recall reading this some time ago from a Maldives local and it grabbed my attention as to its authenticity and I believe all your readers should be aware of it. It is item 26 from Shaig in the following URL:
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=118 ”
To which I replied
” I have done some more research on the comment you posted re Morner and the rebuttal of Morners data in the link 26 you provided from someone called Shaig.
The name Shaig might be a common one, but I suspect this relates to the blogger to whom you linked. His comment that “I consider myself a student of climate science’ is somewhat down playing his activities.
Here is his phd profile linking to his papers.
http://www.jcu.edu.au/ees/staff/postgrad/JCUDEV_014807.html
This is a background paper he prepared for the Maldives Govt on sea levels
http://74.125.77.132/search?q=cache:YBYq6duKCfsJ:www.maldivespartnershipforum.gov.mv/2008/3-Environment%2520FINAL.pdf+shaig+maldives&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
This is the full report for the Maldives Govt called ‘ National adaptation program of action’ in which he is cited as an author.
http://env.rol.net.mv/docs/Reports/National%20Adaptation%20Programme%20of%20Action%20-%20Maldives/NAPA_Maldives_optimised.pdf
Shaig is hardly the disinterested partner that his post suggests. What his motives are I do not know, but I repeat that it would be instructive to see if Warwich Hughes received any further information from someone who appears to have his own reasons for saying the things he does.”
If you read the posts in context this might fall into a subtle ad hom attack by Shaig on Morner, but as I don’t want to make one myself on him, people will have to make up their own mind. (Perhaps that is even subtler!!)
Would welcome any further comments on this controversy which periodically resurfaces.
Tonyb
Such an interesting narrative plus the follow on comments.
First it was Tuvalu — not a good choice that one, seeing as how it’s in a geologically active area (subduction zone).
Then it was the Maldives — another not so good choice, as the photographic evidence seems to show; those darn corals insist on growing despite the supposed consensus that they are doomed.
Now the latest island facing danger from the rising seas is — Manhattan. Just wait for the overdue hurricane to hit and flood the subways. There will such a hue & cry raised about how it was caused by global warming.
So, all of technological civilization must grind to a halt because a few none-too-bright folk decided to embrace the romantic notion of living a precarious existence on a fragile speck of land called an island.
I think I’m heading back to bed. Wake me when the human species regains consciousness.
So the Maldives is going to become carbon-neutral. Does that include the flights bringing in the thousands of tourists who are the economic life-blood of the islands?
Somehow I doubt it.
“”” Norm in the Hawkesbury (01:44:24) :
http://www.themaldives.com/map/maldives-map.asp
The Maldive Islands or the Pearls of the Indian Ocean, as it is popularly known, are situated in the South West of Sri Lanka, on the equator. “””
Well my World Atlas places the Maldives to the South West of India; pretty much straight south from Bombay. Thjat is not what I would call south West of Sri Lanka or Ceylon if you will. India separates the Maldives from Sri Lanka or Sumatra. Yes it is true the Maldives are also south west of Borneo, and also south west of Japan. I think south of Bombay is closer to the truth.
Notice they are also tucked into a sort of dead corner of the Indian Ocean with not a lot of water interchange with the body of the indian Ocean. That area (of Ocean) up there also gets nice and hot and is largely the source of Indian Monsoon Rains. In other words, there’s a whole bunch of evaporation goes on in that conrer of the Indian Ocean above Maldives.
Now evaporation is not going to remove very many millimetres of water, but it does remove an astronomical amount of latent heat (545 cal/gm) from a very deep body of ocean that is somewhat in a cul-de-sac.
So that body of water shrinks more than the general Indian ocean, and the sea level is lower as a result of that. I’m sure that’s not the whole story but it is part of it.
Maldives was I believe first to ratify Kyoto; and I am sure they would love a gravy train bailout from Industrial nations.
Dr Sally Baliunas wrote an essay on the Maldives situation; and that may be where I first heard about the peculiar ocean conditions in that area.
But SW of Sri Lanka is still a lousy description of where they are.
George
Richard 111:
I calculate slightly different numbers than you (I think the site you referred to may have numbers a bit off from what I have usually seen). However, I think the general magnitude of what you are stating is absolutely correct. There has to be a massive amount of land-based ice loss to raise the ocean by a meter. There is also some possible sea rise from general increases in ocean temperature, which arguably would come from increased global temperatures (but, then again, this would need to be offset by any cooling of the ocean from the ice melt).
One recent alarmist article highlighted on this site lamented that there were 48 cubic miles of land-based ice lost each year. By my calculations, after 100 years at that rate, the sea level could be expected to rise in the aggregate by a whopping 2.2 inches. Not only is this not a crisis, it is a complete non-event.
Annabelle: “So the Maldives is going to become carbon-neutral. Does that include the flights bringing in the thousands of tourists who are the economic life-blood of the islands? Somehow I doubt it. ”
Agree.
I have to confess I don’t understand the whole idea of being carbon neutral. I’m not sure it is even logically, much less, practically, possible. As near as I can tell, the very act of living impacts the carbon cycle, so what does it mean to be “neutral.”
Can someone enlighten me on just how this concept of “carbon neutral” is defined and calculated?
Andy Revkin (07:59:32) :
Good luck with that – it’s a horribly complex area!
From my reading a couple of scientists who have addressed the absolute sea level rise throughout the Holocene are Kurt Lambeck and Paolo Antonio Pirazzoli, each of who’s work is worth reading when trying to disentangle absolute global sea level changes through the Holocene from local effects due to isostatic rebound, sea floor suppression and tectonic activity.
I assume you have read the comments of Paul S. Kench, Scott L. Nichol and Roger F. McLean who addressed Morner’s work on the Maldives.
Paul S. Kench et al (2005) Global and Planetary Change
Volume 47, Issue 1, May 2005, Pages 67-69
and the analysis of Woodworth which also indicates that Morner’s analysis of sea level changes in the Maldives is suspect to say the least…
Woodworth PL (2005) Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands? GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE vol 49 Issue: 1-2 pp 1-18.
Unfortunately it’s not easy to find an account of these subjects properly described on the blogosphere….happily policymakers and their scientific advisors are increasingly obtaining their information on these important topics from the science (and not the web).
Leon Brozyna (09:29:06):
I think I’m heading back to bed. Wake me when the human species regains consciousness.
Will you sleep forever, my friend? 😉
Rikard Gothäll (01:05:04) :
“Unfortunately Prof Mörner is not a scientist whos work should be taken seriously. He has been criticized publicly for having taught courses in Dowsing at the university.”
My first encounter with dowsing as an earth scientist was in a course taught Dr. Alan Freeze at the University British Columbia (Dr. Freeze is co-author with Dr. John Cherry of the most widely used textbook on groundwater hydrology).
Dr. Freeze’s assessment was that it sometimes appears to work and that his students should keep an open mind.
For those unfamiliar with the strategy, Mr. Gothäll above is employing the all too common rhetorical tactic of the ad hominem attack.
Eric Anderson (09:57:54) wrote:
There is also some possible sea rise from general increases in ocean temperature, which arguably would come from increased global temperatures [snip]
Eric-
Please refer to my earlier posting on sea water density and verify my calculation that the amount of depth change would be minimal for any realistic temperature change.
Ian
Several references, the last by deadwood, to Dowsing show how a lot of people don’t get out in the real world. I don’t know what Morner said about it, but it’s practical use cannot be questioned. I have seen it twice used in the field. Once was when we were getting a lighted sign put up and the utility workers came out to see if they could dig and put in an underground wire. Well, out came the two little copper wires loosely held in one of the men’s hands. The wires clearly showed where the old water line ran across the road and into the yard where we wanted to dig, allowing us to avoid the water when we dug the trench.
The second example (this time using a wood I didn’t ask about), was when a backhoe operator needed to inspect my septic tank and fill lines in the back yard to see what the problem was. Why would these men naturally use these things if they didn’t work, or at least help them in their work?
“Now the latest island facing danger from the rising seas is — Manhattan. Just wait for the overdue hurricane to hit and flood the subways. There will such a hue & cry raised about how it was caused by global warming.”
I recently saw an episode of “How the Earth was Made” which studied the geology of Manhattan. It also pointed out that if hurricane winds and storm surge come in from the southeast, water is guided by the shorelines into the area. All that water is aimed right at “The Narrows” where the Hudson exits. The Narrows accelerates the incoming water, which accumulates on the west side of the island… until it can escape overland back to the Atlantic.
Scapegoats and solutions are left as an exercise for the reader.
An often forgotten fact is that places like the South East of England and Holland used to suffer from flooding almost every year throughout recorded history until they made infrastructure improvements.
Natural sedimentation too has helped prevent flooding and damage from sea level rise. The south coast of England today is around five miles more expanded than it was when the Romans landed. The English Channel is narrower too. The same thing is going on in Bangladesh where its land mass is increasing due to sedimentation and plate tectonics.
Preventing flooding doesn’t require cutting carbon emissions or damaging the economy at all. It just takes engineering and terraforming (manmade and natural) to prevent and can be done as and when necessary instead of spending huge amounts of money well in advance because a flawed climate model or ever-fattening has-been politician predicted catastrophic sea level rise.
Stability of piers. I remember being out on the end of a fishing pier at Half Moon Bay, California, USA. in 1945. The incoming swells were quite large and looking back towards shore, you could see the deck of the pier moving up and down, following the swells as they rolled shoreward.