Our recent story about the freeze over on Lake Superior prompted a lot of discussion. Steven Goddard has submitted this article on the Great Lakes for consideration. – Anthony
Guest post by Steven Goddard
A favorite AGW talking point has been predictions of disastrous effects on the US Great Lakes. A continuous stream of warnings has been written about declining water levels, drought and heat.
Lake Superior water levels are close to normal
<!–
viewOnLoad();
var urchinPage = “/View”;
function getXHR() {
if (typeof XMLHttpRequest != “undefined”) {
return new XMLHttpRequest();
}
try { return new ActiveXObject(“Msxml2.XMLHTTP.6.0”) } catch(e) {}
try { return new ActiveXObject(“Msxml2.XMLHTTP.3.0”) } catch(e) {}
try { return new ActiveXObject(“Msxml2.XMLHTTP”) } catch(e) {}
try { return new ActiveXObject(“Microsoft.XMLHTTP”) } catch(e) {}
return null;
}
function reportAbuse() {
var req = getXHR();
if (req) {
var docid = ‘ddw82wws_113gcsxh7fw’;
var posttoken = ”;
req.onreadystatechange = function() {
try {
if (req.readyState == 4 && req.status == 200) {
var button = document.getElementById(“report-abuse-button”);
button.value = ‘Thank you!’;
button.disabled = true;
}
} catch (ex) {
}
}
try {
req.open(‘POST’, ‘MiscCommands’, true);
req.setRequestHeader(‘Content-Type’, ‘application/x-www-form-urlencoded; charset=UTF-8’);
req.send(‘command=report_abuse&abuseDoc=’ + encodeURIComponent(docid) +
‘&POST_TOKEN=’ + encodeURIComponent(posttoken));
} catch (ex) {
}
}
}
–>
Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)
* French Onion Soup in a Crock Pot
* 10th Davao Trade Expo
French Onion soup?
In Dakota James’ early 1980s camp classic “Greenhouse: It will happen in 1997” there is a depiction of a bone dry Lake Michigan, which, according to the book, should have occurred 18 years ago. And here we are now talking about lake ice riding up on land and causing property destruction.
As we know, half of the ‘US Great Lakes’ happens to be in Canada. No worries, this discussion includes that half as well.
In this area (near Detroit) Back in the 70’s the water was much higher than now. Flooding was very serious. Then the water went to a low level(dire predictions were routine, of course a result of AGW) and in the last couple years it has been rising again. Normal pattern of nature.
It is an old wives tale that they can control the lake levels. Lake Superior flows through the St. Marys river like it always did and the Niagra Falls flow unrestricted and so on. There are no manmade restrictions in the route.
They can let water out at Chicago headed to the Mississippi. I don’t believe this is enough to affect lake levels.
slightly OT, but Reuters just published the following article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLA435701
This article states in its’ title that sea levels ARE rising faster than expected. My response to this them was:
“This article is totally irresponsible in both its’ title and its’ content. First, the title states that sea levels ARE rising faster than expected while in the body of the article the terms may and might be, if certain conditions arise, predominate. Those conditions include an assumption that arctic sea ice and the Greenland ice sheet are steadily decreasing in volume. While this was true up until 2007, the arctic ice sheet has nearly recovered it’s 1979 volume during the 2008/2009 season alone. The recent claims of decreasing sea ice volume during the 2009 winter were predicated on a faulty satellite component and have since been refuted.
Secondly, this article totally ignores the recent return of the PDO and AMO to a cool state, cooling the oceans and as a result, the planet. Again, this is evident in a greatly increased ice volume this year.
I am disappointed that Reuters has stooped to this level of alarmism. Perhaps, the reporter needs to do a little more research before making such bombastic pronouncements.
Ladies and gentlemen, the science is far from settled with regards to anthropogenic global warming, its’ existence, extent, and effect. Quite the contrary, the real debate has just begun. You do your readers a great disservice when you present only one side of that debate…”
It is fun when the wind drives in the ice from the lake to the shore. In the 70’s I lived on Lake St Clair, not a great lake, but in the system. One day in March we saw huge chunks of thick ice driven into the shore. Then the huge chunks started grinding down the shore line, taking out every dock and boat house with them. My father ran down to the water, held out his hand and said “Stop” The ice mass stopped and our boathouse was untouched. I wish he was still alive, I would have him take on Al Gore.
Can’t do it. The UK is a party to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC Article 4, section 7 places poverty eradication as a higher priority than climate change. Prince, give all your money to the poor before you can deal with climate change, but only if in so doing you eradicate poverty.
Cold Englishman (11:23:19) : said
“On the other hand the bbc now confirm that sea levels are rising much faster than previously thought, so we’re all doomed if we live by the sea (600 million people), especially in Lowestoft. my advice is stay by the lake”
This related to the latest report on BBC news at ten about the climate change conference in Copenhagen and the increased sea level rises they are expecting.
They now forecast a 10mm-15mm a year rise three to five times greater than their own existing measurements and completely divorced from the actual reality.
The BBC illustrated the scenario with footage of waves crashing over a railway track and hitting a train.
I have posted on this before. I look on the railway line,travel on it frequently and it has long been a local joke that you consult the tide tables before you conult the train timetable.
The point is that this has been happening ever since the line was built in the 1850’s. Brunel built it to the wrong alignment and suffered the indigity of an engineerng report at the time hauling him over the coals for it as the alignment made the line very susceptible to easterly gales at high tides.
He built a harbour and an island to house rail workers and it is there to this day with no sign of any sea level rise whatsoever.
I suppose the alarmist reports of this nature are less effective if you have to mention actual facts such as these, but of course the gullible are taken in.
Tonyb
“Steven Goddard (08:00:00) :
Ever feel like you are being had?”
[snip–oh come on ~ charles the moderator]
“Jeff Norman (08:06:26) :
“A favorite AGW talking point has been predictions of disastrous effects on the US Great Lakes. ”
US Great Lakes? Your manifest destiny is showing.”
This just in
China owns the US part now.
I have a home on the shorefront of Washington Island at the tip of Green Bay in Lake Michigan and check the NOAA Great Lakes water level site often.
The great majority of water in the great lakes basin is in Lake Superior, Michigan and Huron. Lake Michigan has been below the long term mean for more than 5 years and is presently 15-20″ below the long term mean. Lake Superior recovered a bit last year but is still 5-10″ below the long term mean.
Peak water levels recently occurred in 1985 and record lows were set in 1965 in Lake Michigan. Studies have tried to link levels to sunspots without success. There does seem to be a water cycle but it’s hard to discern given the amount of water taken out for drinking water and the leakage through the various outflows.
Remember also that the Des plaines and Chicago rivers were reversed to flow into the Mississippi in the 1800’s so the “normal” balance of water flows have been completely changed with lock building and these reversals over the last 160 years.
Having grown up on Lake Michigan, right on the lake front in Manitowoc County (WI), I can say that I have seen the levels of the lake through the decades all over the place. There were times the boat dock was under water for several years, then at a normal level, then able to actually walk around it. I always viewed it as normal, just a cycle the Great Lakes went though. The same held true for the weather — times when you could not even push the back door open due to snow and other times when we were wishing for more snow. This was all before AGW hit the scene. (By the way I cannot tell everyone enough how much I enjoy reading the posts and topics on this site. Keep it up)
Interesting it’s reported in the BBC, not an American or Canadian news source.
Not just the BBC: ked (08:40:15) : http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/10/gallery.michigan.ice/index.html
Interesting reporting in the original article:
Lake Ontario water levels are above normal.
Lake Erie water levels are above normal.
the graphs show above normal by about 0.2m.
Lake Superior water levels are close to normal
as are Lakes Michigan and Huron
the graphs show these to be low by from 0.1-0.4m.
By that definition Ontario and Erie are close to normal!
However, it’s not inconsistent with the statement linked to in the original article: “the recent series of unusually warm years is already to blame for a drop of 3.5 feet in water levels for Lakes Huron, Michigan and Erie”.
Of course from the context we might think that that’s a reasonably contemporary article whereas in fact it’s about 9 years old!
The summary states: “NOAA data seems to provide little evidence supporting the claims of alarmists.”, whereas the NOAA data does show a ~1m drop in the timeframe mentioned.
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/lowlevels/plot/Michigan-Huron.gif
Phil,
I know this stuff is tricky for you, but if Lake Huron was 3.5 feet below normal nine nine years ago, and it is now above normal – is the lake level is rising or falling? You never cease to amaze me with your open mind and questioning intellect.
If you do a search on great lakes global warming, you will get hundreds of thousands of hits.
the planet’s warming climate will only increase the rate of evaporation on the Great Lakes, slowing their rate of renewal even more.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/Great+Lakes+enough+quench+water+shortage+Report/1282988/story.html
Michigan, he noted, is not susceptible to rising sea levels — or hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, floods or landslides. Global warming here, he said, is now thought to mean summers like northern Arkansas, winters like southern Ohio, and shrinking Great Lakes
http://www.wwj.com/pages/3869676.php?
US Great Lakes? Your manifest destiny is showing.
54°40′ or fight!
Looking through my pictures of Easter when I was just a wee lass, we hunted Easter eggs in the snow. The current cold snap is likely an old friend that comes round now and then. At this latitude, weather pattern variation ranges from warm enough to ripen a tomato now and then but don’t be plantin no cantelopes and expecting fruit, to cold enough to cause flash freezing in tender areas…she said while sipping an ice cold CO2 laden Coors in Anthony’s honor.
I grew up on the shores of Lake Ontario and can tell you that this lake regularly rises and falls. The last couple of years it has fallen and the rotting organic matter along the shoreline has made it a challenge to be around. Apparently, this situation has reversed itself and the lake is now rising again. Can’t vouch for this personally, as I now live in GA., but it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m pretty confident that these cycles have little to do with AGW. Would appreciate any knowlegeable person’s insight into this…
Really Steven?
Anecdotes about wind-driven ice as implicit “AGW must be a lie!”
A two month trend of Great Lake water levels presented as actually having significance.
“Great Lakes” temperature data from only one quadrant of the region, over another uselessly short time period, and which doesn’t even appear to support your claim.
You are descending into self-parody.
The amount flowing through the St. Marys river is somewhat controlled, not totally. They most certainly do have some significant control over lake levels at several locations. The argument about exactly what level they should shoot for has been ongoing for at least 3 decades. The subject was hotly debated back then when I first lived in Port Huron and it continues. In the early 80’s they kept levels high to save money on dredging and help shipping but that produced a lot of shoreline damage. The control isn’t very tight and doesn’t respond quickly or sometimes the way they expect but it isn’t absent either.
I have lived in Bay City MI most of my life, and seen this many times.
An early spring warm spell with rain breaks up the ice out on the bay, and we get the usual March wind from the north, or worse north east. It happens quite a bit, but we only see property damage if the wind really kicks up, and there are large gaps in the ice. 30 days ago I was driving my 2 ton truck out on the Saginaw Bay. It has been unusually cold this year with lots of snow.
Just my .2
Steven Goddard (19:59:48) :
Phil,
I know this stuff is tricky for you, but if Lake Huron was 3.5 feet below normal nine nine years ago, and it is now above normal – is the lake level is rising or falling? You never cease to amaze me with your open mind and questioning intellect.
I’m sorry that I do not share your delusion regarding the data. Your inability to read graphs is indeed amazing, according to the graph you produced Huron is presently below the long term mean, not above normal as you claim!
The longer term graph which NOAA produced (see my post above) shows that Huron is at the same level as it was 9 years ago, over a meter below where it was in 1997.
Phil,
Sorry, I meant to write Erie, not Huron. But it doesn’t make any difference because all the lakes have risen over the last few years, and all are close to normal.
As usual, your argument centers around nitpicking irrelevant details. What do you think about Hansen’s 6C temperature rise this century and his 5m sea level rise this century? If you actually cared about numbers you would be directing your energies elsewhere.
Jeff Norman (08:06:26) :
“A favorite AGW talking point has been predictions of disastrous effects on the US Great Lakes. ”
US Great Lakes? Your manifest destiny is showing.
And I just thought it was because the US CO2 production would raise our side of the lake, but Canadian’s don’t make as much CO2, so the computer models show their side of the lake staying low 😉
This morning the BBC reports that ice drifts coming off Lake Huron are damaging houses in Michigan.
We saw it yesterday on The Weather Channel.
One must be careful in interpreting what is going on with the lake level of Michigan-Huron since its outlet is entirely uncontrolled. Climate is likely only one key factor – the other being the outlet topology which varies as sandbars shift around. There are also thoughts that dredging and other manmade alterations to the outlet channel also impact lake levels.