Click for larger image.
I don’t have tome to do a pixel analysis (anyone is welcome to do so and post in comments) but it appears by eyeball analysis that we may have about a 50-50 cool to warm anomaly over all of the oceans surface.
h/t to Bill Illis
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ONI value (December 2008–February 2009) is −0.8ºC.
Interesting “hotspot” in the Barents Sea. I wonder why?
I wonder if there are continuing data problems here. The difference between the latest map http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
and from a week ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
seems to show an exceptionall rapid cooling from the East Pacific continuing through Meso America into and beyond the Caribbean. The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.
It will be interesting to compare other sources with this one before making any conclusions but if this is an accurate map it is very interesting indeed.
If you look at the sea-ice coverage at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.2.26.2009.gif
it is obvious that they are still using the faulty SSM/I sensor to decide what is ice and what is water. No wonder the water is cold in Baffins Bay and Hudson Bay!
Mary Hinge (05:12:07) :
I wonder if there are continuing data problems here. The difference between the latest map http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
and from a week ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
seems to show an exceptionall rapid cooling from the East Pacific continuing through Meso America into and beyond the Caribbean. The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.
I suspect the two links go to the same map.
🙂
Have a better link, s’il vous plait?
Just curious: how do you tell? Just cold water off the West side of South America?
Thanks,
tim
Re Fernando
I calculated it to be -0.08C but I literally used standard unix command line tools to do it and excluded all sea ice so I’m not 100% sure of my answer.
Bummer, no h/t for me 🙁 . I posted this up yesterday in the solar thread…
This looks a little more impressive to me than the conditions back in January, which just looked weak. Also, WTF is going on off the western coast of Africa?
SOI was still very positive last month. With a cooling nino1+2 region, I expect March to cool a good bit (anomaly-speaking) from Jan-Feb.
The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.
The nino1+2 region has cooled considerably in just 4 days. Compare the picture above to the one from the 5th: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.5.2009.gif
It’s interesting how rapidly AMSU has gone up again in March. Especially when we have a la nina…?!
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
I can’t claim to understand a lot of what is discussed here….but what is interesting is that no country seems to be interested in discussing the impact of an open shipping passage in the arctic this year.
Ultimately, I don’t think that we skeptics will actually win the the AGW argument, they don’t seem to able to appreciate a rational argument…..but time will. The credibility of science will take a hit, but Al Gore and the media, (and hopefully a lot of politicians) will become jokes. History has not been kind to those who lead the popular delusions and the madness of crowds.
The NINO3.4 SST anomaly (OI.v2) for the week centered on Wednesday Feb 25, 2009 was -0.53 deg C. It had risen for a few weeks up to then.
http://s5.tinypic.com/2dwe9k.jpg
The above graph is from my monthly SST update for February, here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/03/february-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html
The last weekly update of OI.v2 SST data has NINO3.4 SST anomalies sitting at -0.62 deg C. Sorry, no graph. But here’s the link to the OI.v2 SST data.
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&lite=&ptype=ts&dir
And there are instructions for downloading OI.v2 SST data from NOMADS at the end of this post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/secondary-repeated-enso-signal.html
Oops, Je suis désolé!
Here is the correct link to todays map. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.9.2009.gif
Mary,
you should be “désolée” lol
Rej
Email received from John Sapper @ur momisugly NOAA in response to an email I sent him about apparent sensor issues (with regards to sea ice) that is mentioned above:
Hi Fred,
I should probably put a disclaimer on these images about the data not being reliable outside the 70 North to 70 South latitude range.
I don’t think it is a sensor issue. Only that the data are very sparse in polar regions.
Cheers,
John
Richard 111: I posted about that Barents Sea hotspot back in August, here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/barents-and-bering-seas.html
The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg
That August post was based on ERSST.v2 data and its resolution at that latitude isn’t as good as the OI.v2 data. I’ll try to do another post on that area in the next few days with OI.v2 data to see if there’s anything unusual there. Probably ENSO and AO related. We’ll see.
OT… I am a teacher in england. there is a site for teachers and the public called Physics &Etics Education Project. http://www.peep.ac.uk There is a section on Climate Change. The site aims to be ethical.
Below is the opening page on Climate Change. The facts do not look right to me. the site invites comments. I thought some people on here would be better informed than me.
“Effects of climate change
Introduction
Predicting the exact effects of an increase in global temperature is very difficult. There are many possible physical, social, economic, biological and ecological consequences of Climate Change or Global Warming.
It is expected that greater warming will occur at the poles than at the equator. This will effect atmospheric circulation patterns, which are dependent on the temperature differences between these two areas.
Regional rainfall patterns are likely to be drastically altered, which will change the patterns of world food production.
Parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heatwaves, others will see an increased intensity of tropical storms
Sea levels will rise due to –
Melting of ice (glaciers and polar ice)
The thermal expansion of water
Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43cm. This rise will cause –
Flooding
Salinisation of soils (increased saltiness)
Coastal erosion
No one is certain how quickly it will rise but for the UK, an estimate of 0.3m to 0.6m by the year 2050. This may not sound like much, but many small island nations are barely above current sea levels.”
I am sure these were the most alarmist figures and were long discredited. But cannot remember detail.
It certainly does, it was interesting that January showed that the -ive PDO was getting stronger http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.
Tim G: The most commonly used area for determining the strength of an El Nino or La Nina is the NINO3.4 area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The NINO3.4 area is bordered by the coordinates 5S-5N, 170W-120W. Here’s a map:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2z67d6s.jpg
The El Nino or La Nina is usually expressed as the NINO3.4 SST anomaly.
Mary Hinge (05:12:07) :
tty (05:55:59) :
It’s a SST anomaly graphic, not an ice area graphic. The white areas only indicateice.
The faulty sensor is on a polar orbiter, NOAA uses several different satellites depending on the data they need. You should find the information about them here.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/info/index.html
Mary this might be what you want. It’s an time series animation and shows that cold water devoloping around Meso America .
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml
TerryS (06:11:06): Thanks
I user: Cut the area and weigh
I think the blue win:
Result: -0.2ºC. (Poor)
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6119/wuwtsea.gif
mercator projection
Greenland is presented as having roughly as much land area as Africa, when in fact Africa’s area is approximately 14 times that of Greenland.
Alaska is presented as having similar or even slightly more land area than Brazil, when Brazil’s area is actually more than 5 times that of Alaska.
Finland appears with a greater north-south extent than India, although India’s is the greater.
Wiki.
NOAA 03/09/2009 ……….NOAA 03/02/2009
Niño 4……. -0.6ºC…………Niño 4………. -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4…. -0.6ºC…………Niño 3.4……..-0.5ºC
Niño 3…….. -0.7ºC………..Niño 3………..-0.3ºC
Niño1+2…… 0.3ºC………..Niño1+2…….. 0.4ºC
TerryS: Am I missing something from another thread? At the top of this one, Fernando reported on the ONI value for December through February, which is the average of the monthly (Dec, Jan, Feb) SST anomalies for the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W). How could sea ice have any bearing on your calculation of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies?
It seems that we will have several la Ninas ahead, all data appeared up to now in WUWT points to that scenario. PDO will be there for 22 years more, the sun still having a long nap, Livingston and Penn waiting for spots to disappear by 2015 or before, sun itself doing small rounds around barycenter, etc.
It seems that from the last big el Nino in 1998 the sea has been losing its heat.
But, the question again arises (because it is really difficult to make forecasts but easier to analyze past events): What did it happen, around, taking into account a time lag of 6 years, say,in 1991-92?
Thank you Bob! That helps.
–t