La Niña conditions: still there

Click for larger image.

I don’t have tome to do a pixel analysis (anyone is welcome to do so and post in comments) but it appears by eyeball analysis that we may have about a 50-50 cool to warm anomaly over all of the oceans surface.

h/t to Bill Illis

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91 thoughts on “La Niña conditions: still there

  1. I wonder if there are continuing data problems here. The difference between the latest map http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
    and from a week ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
    seems to show an exceptionall rapid cooling from the East Pacific continuing through Meso America into and beyond the Caribbean. The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.
    It will be interesting to compare other sources with this one before making any conclusions but if this is an accurate map it is very interesting indeed.

  2. If you look at the sea-ice coverage at:

    it is obvious that they are still using the faulty SSM/I sensor to decide what is ice and what is water. No wonder the water is cold in Baffins Bay and Hudson Bay!

  3. Mary Hinge (05:12:07) :
    I wonder if there are continuing data problems here. The difference between the latest map http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
    and from a week ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
    seems to show an exceptionall rapid cooling from the East Pacific continuing through Meso America into and beyond the Caribbean. The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.

    I suspect the two links go to the same map.
    :-)
    Have a better link, s’il vous plait?

  4. Just curious: how do you tell? Just cold water off the West side of South America?

    Thanks,
    tim

  5. Re Fernando

    I calculated it to be -0.08C but I literally used standard unix command line tools to do it and excluded all sea ice so I’m not 100% sure of my answer.

  6. Bummer, no h/t for me :( . I posted this up yesterday in the solar thread…

    This looks a little more impressive to me than the conditions back in January, which just looked weak. Also, WTF is going on off the western coast of Africa?

    SOI was still very positive last month. With a cooling nino1+2 region, I expect March to cool a good bit (anomaly-speaking) from Jan-Feb.

  7. The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.

  8. I can’t claim to understand a lot of what is discussed here….but what is interesting is that no country seems to be interested in discussing the impact of an open shipping passage in the arctic this year.

    Ultimately, I don’t think that we skeptics will actually win the the AGW argument, they don’t seem to able to appreciate a rational argument…..but time will. The credibility of science will take a hit, but Al Gore and the media, (and hopefully a lot of politicians) will become jokes. History has not been kind to those who lead the popular delusions and the madness of crowds.

  9. The NINO3.4 SST anomaly (OI.v2) for the week centered on Wednesday Feb 25, 2009 was -0.53 deg C. It had risen for a few weeks up to then.

    The above graph is from my monthly SST update for February, here:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/03/february-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html

    The last weekly update of OI.v2 SST data has NINO3.4 SST anomalies sitting at -0.62 deg C. Sorry, no graph. But here’s the link to the OI.v2 SST data.
    http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&lite=&ptype=ts&dir

    And there are instructions for downloading OI.v2 SST data from NOMADS at the end of this post:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/secondary-repeated-enso-signal.html

  10. Email received from John Sapper @ NOAA in response to an email I sent him about apparent sensor issues (with regards to sea ice) that is mentioned above:

    Hi Fred,

    I should probably put a disclaimer on these images about the data not being reliable outside the 70 North to 70 South latitude range.
    I don’t think it is a sensor issue. Only that the data are very sparse in polar regions.

    Cheers,

    John

  11. Richard 111: I posted about that Barents Sea hotspot back in August, here:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/barents-and-bering-seas.html

    The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.

    That August post was based on ERSST.v2 data and its resolution at that latitude isn’t as good as the OI.v2 data. I’ll try to do another post on that area in the next few days with OI.v2 data to see if there’s anything unusual there. Probably ENSO and AO related. We’ll see.

  12. OT… I am a teacher in england. there is a site for teachers and the public called Physics &Etics Education Project. http://www.peep.ac.uk There is a section on Climate Change. The site aims to be ethical.
    Below is the opening page on Climate Change. The facts do not look right to me. the site invites comments. I thought some people on here would be better informed than me.

    “Effects of climate change
    Introduction
    Predicting the exact effects of an increase in global temperature is very difficult. There are many possible physical, social, economic, biological and ecological consequences of Climate Change or Global Warming.

    It is expected that greater warming will occur at the poles than at the equator. This will effect atmospheric circulation patterns, which are dependent on the temperature differences between these two areas.

    Regional rainfall patterns are likely to be drastically altered, which will change the patterns of world food production.
    Parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heatwaves, others will see an increased intensity of tropical storms
    Sea levels will rise due to –
    Melting of ice (glaciers and polar ice)
    The thermal expansion of water
    Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43cm. This rise will cause –
    Flooding
    Salinisation of soils (increased saltiness)

    Coastal erosion

    No one is certain how quickly it will rise but for the UK, an estimate of 0.3m to 0.6m by the year 2050. This may not sound like much, but many small island nations are barely above current sea levels.”

    I am sure these were the most alarmist figures and were long discredited. But cannot remember detail.

  13. robert brucker (06:17:02) :
    The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.

    It certainly does, it was interesting that January showed that the -ive PDO was getting stronger http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.

  14. Tim G: The most commonly used area for determining the strength of an El Nino or La Nina is the NINO3.4 area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The NINO3.4 area is bordered by the coordinates 5S-5N, 170W-120W. Here’s a map:

    The El Nino or La Nina is usually expressed as the NINO3.4 SST anomaly.

  15. Mary Hinge (05:12:07) :

    The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.

    tty (05:55:59) :

    it is obvious that they are still using the faulty SSM/I sensor to decide what is ice and what is water. No wonder the water is cold in Baffins Bay and Hudson Bay!

    It’s a SST anomaly graphic, not an ice area graphic. The white areas only indicateice.

    The faulty sensor is on a polar orbiter, NOAA uses several different satellites depending on the data they need. You should find the information about them here.

    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/info/index.html

    Mary this might be what you want. It’s an time series animation and shows that cold water devoloping around Meso America .

    http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

  16. TerryS (06:11:06): Thanks
    I user: Cut the area and weigh
    I think the blue win:
    Result: -0.2ºC. (Poor)

    mercator projection
    Greenland is presented as having roughly as much land area as Africa, when in fact Africa’s area is approximately 14 times that of Greenland.
    Alaska is presented as having similar or even slightly more land area than Brazil, when Brazil’s area is actually more than 5 times that of Alaska.
    Finland appears with a greater north-south extent than India, although India’s is the greater.
    Wiki.

    NOAA 03/09/2009 ……….NOAA 03/02/2009
    Niño 4……. -0.6ºC…………Niño 4………. -0.6ºC
    Niño 3.4…. -0.6ºC…………Niño 3.4……..-0.5ºC
    Niño 3…….. -0.7ºC………..Niño 3………..-0.3ºC
    Niño1+2…… 0.3ºC………..Niño1+2…….. 0.4ºC

  17. TerryS: Am I missing something from another thread? At the top of this one, Fernando reported on the ONI value for December through February, which is the average of the monthly (Dec, Jan, Feb) SST anomalies for the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W). How could sea ice have any bearing on your calculation of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies?

  18. It seems that we will have several la Ninas ahead, all data appeared up to now in WUWT points to that scenario. PDO will be there for 22 years more, the sun still having a long nap, Livingston and Penn waiting for spots to disappear by 2015 or before, sun itself doing small rounds around barycenter, etc.
    It seems that from the last big el Nino in 1998 the sea has been losing its heat.
    But, the question again arises (because it is really difficult to make forecasts but easier to analyze past events): What did it happen, around, taking into account a time lag of 6 years, say,in 1991-92?

  19. Bob Tisdale,
    I enjoy perusing your website during my lunch period. However, FYI, images from tinypic.com are blocked by corporate firewalls in my company and possibly others. I’ve also had a similar problem with WUWT from time to time albeit not as often.

    Thanks for all the great work on ENSO driving climate variation!

  20. The problem I have with this type of color coded map is that it does not indicate what the anomoly is based on. For instance, there is no way the waters around Florida are cooler than the waters around Long Island. I realize that the map does not indicate temperature but the + or – from an “average” temperature for that particular area. But there is no indication of what the average is for each area or what time frame they are using to get the average temperature to base the anomoly on. Or perhaps I missed that.

  21. Bob Tisdale

    Glad you popped in. There have been a lot quires SSTs. I like doing my own charts but some times it’s hard to keep and analysis is not my strong point.

    Your blog is an excellent resource for all regardless of experience. Thank you for the work you do.

  22. Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :

    Thank you. Look forward to you next examination of the Barents Sea anomaly.

  23. Re: Bob Tisdale (08:25:40) :

    I was bored and had some spare time in work so I assigned each colour in the graphic a temperature value, added them all up and divided by the number of pixels (excluding ice, land and legend pixels) and came up with the average. Its probably the wrong way to do it since the area of each pixel isn’t the same but I thought I’d give a go.

  24. I removed all of the -0.5-+0.5 pixels, and corrected for latitudinal distortion. Below normal pixels are about 20% of the map area, and above normal pixels are about 10%.

    The reason for removing those +/-<0.5 pixels is that they are too close to “normal” since no one really knows what normal is within that precision. Should a measurement at +0,01 be marked as yellow?

  25. TerryS: I understand what you are doing.
    The picture is more blue pixels.
    Right:
    Only the lack GISS algorithm.
    Salutes

  26. It seems as though the conditions are slipping fast though, SOI is dropping as it did last year in March: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
    and it has never been above 19-ish since the 08 la Nina,,, so conditions are cool but not as strong as last year, although this year it has persisted for longer.
    I also noted that warm spot by Barents sea… it always seems to be there…
    Also the horse-shoe cold negative PDO anomaly… fascinating stuff indeed!!
    Hoping this year will bring some snow to South Africa like last year :), I’m sure it is at this point loathed by many in America and Eurasia but here we just can’t get enough of it when it rarely does fall!

  27. Fred Nieuwenhuis (07:08:09) :

    “Email received from John Sapper @ NOAA in response to an email I sent him about apparent sensor issues (with regards to sea ice) that is mentioned above:

    Hi Fred,

    I should probably put a disclaimer on these images about the data not being reliable outside the 70 North to 70 South latitude range.
    I don’t think it is a sensor issue. Only that the data are very sparse in polar regions.

    Cheers,

    John”

    Fred,

    This implicates that:
    1. NOAA should add a permanent disclaimer for all their maps and it should also apply with the temp data sets.
    2. NOAA does not know what’s happening at the poles.

    Do you agree?

  28. Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :

    The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
    http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg

    It appears in both volcanically active areas (Iceland and Svalbard) You would think that unless they where about to blow they shouldn’t show up on an anomaly graphic. However anomaly graphics may miss this as they are a product of a time period and may shift depending on ocean currents. They get lost in the noise. Only when the currents change for a prolonged period from the anomaly period do they show up as a persistent hot spot. This would explain the southerly Icelandic hot spot.

  29. Also World sea ice is at normal levels according to cryosphere today.
    I suspect the effects of these (weak) La Nina conditions will only be seen same time as last year, around May due to the lag…but it probably won’t be as steep.
    I might be wrong but we will just have to wait and see the May anomaly.

  30. Richard111 (04:54:35) :

    “Interesting “hotspot” in . . . ”

    Off of the coast of Namibia where the cold Benquela Current is supposed to be. Your post caused me to look and notice. But, of course, I have no idea if this is part of a regular cycle or something.

    O/T: (for all) See Climate Audit for a request for funds to rebuild CA’s server.

  31. Pearland Aggie: You wrote, “images from tinypic.com are blocked by corporate firewalls in my company and possibly others.”

    Thanks for telling me. I had no idea. Are the graphs blocked by the firewall when they’re part of blogspot thread also? Or does it only happen as a stand-alone tinypic address? What image posting site makes it through okay?

  32. Richard 111
    That hotspot has been stuck there for months and months. I think the measurement system might be flawed or something.

  33. Adolfo Giurfa (08:26:18) : What did it happen, around, taking into account a time lag of 6 years, say,in 1991-92?

    IIRC it snowed in the Santa Cruz mountains in California in places that don’t normally get much snow. Road to Mt. Hamilton was snowed shut. Cold…

  34. Denis Hopkins above links to “Physics and Ethics Education Project”. Please take a look if you can. Ethicss is exactly the issue here and the PEEP site is clearly slanted.

    Here we have an issue that threatens the economy of the world and because of this threatens the lives of literally millions of people. The PEEP site misrepresents the reality opf the situation and pretends for example that hypothetical ocean rise is a more serious than the real life economic dislocation and starvation of tens of millions. It is sick and twisted to pretend their positon is ethical.

  35. Adolfo Giurfa: Weren’t the 1998/99/2000 and 2000/01 La Nina events a part of the 1997/98 El Nino? Weren’t they simply be an over-reaction of the equatorial Pacific as the SSTs returned to their “normal” conditions?

  36. MartinGAtkins (11:06:10) :

    “Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :

    The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.

    It appears in both volcanically active areas (Iceland and Svalbard) You would think that unless they where about to blow they shouldn’t show up on an anomaly graphic. However anomaly graphics may miss this as they are a product of a time period and may shift depending on ocean currents. They get lost in the noise. Only when the currents change for a prolonged period from the anomaly period do they show up as a persistent hot spot. This would explain the southerly Icelandic hot spot.

    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

    MartinGAtkins and Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :

    Iris registered some heavy quakes near Svalgaard, three quakes, 6.4 RS

  37. Bob Tisdale: My intention is to provoke a discussion about what were the reasons for that extraordinary event, instead of trying to forecast the future to try to “forecast” the past. Which were the causes. In short: To digg the past out.

  38. Adolfo. I agree. Asking questions about previous events, and making comparisons can lead to knowledge. I am not good at predictions. I just make observations. Frank

  39. ” Mary Hinge (07:30:35) :

    robert brucker (06:17:02) :
    The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.

    It certainly does, it was interesting that January showed that the -ive PDO was getting stronger http://jisao.washington.edu/p

    Another way is to ask the fishermen off the coast of Chile if they are catching any anchovies.
    They do when it cold but not when it is El Nino warm.

  40. The Spokane area recorded another cold (high for the day) daytime temperature record that smashed the old one by a bunch. Their records go back to the 1930’s.

  41. O/T but February’s MSu readings out http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt

    Temperatures down slightly on last month but still higher than last year when the La Nina was in full swing.

    MartinGAtkins (07:50:32) :
    Mary this might be what you want. It’s an time series animation and shows that cold water devoloping around Meso America .
    http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

    Thanks Martin, I wonder how both sides of Meso America can be tied in, presumably a combination of winds and clouds. An unusual late autumn (SH) La Nina is starting to look very possible now.

  42. Then let´s digg some:

    The other day someone asked about one big deep in GCR around 1991, Svensmark shows a graph two deeps of low altitude clouds due to GCR one in 1989 the other in 1992 (“The chilling stars”, p.77)…
    Other relations?

  43. You wrote, “Both are blocked. I cannot see either.”

    Well that stinks. I wonder how many other people have the same problem.

    Do you use firefox at work? I just investigated this and it appears firefox doesn’t like tinypic images for some reason. It also doesn’t like blogger. Hmmm.

    If I could trouble you to check these tomorrow when you get to work, it would be appreciated. They’re links to one of my favorite graphs–the ERSST.v3b version of the Southern Ocean.

    Here’s an “image shack” link:

    And here’s “pict.com” link:

    Did either of them make it past the firewall?

    The only problem, while changing image-posting sites might help future posts, it wouldn’t do anything for the old images when I link to those. And it would do no good at all if blogger doesn’t make it through.

  44. Pearland Aggie: Referring to my 16:22:19 comment above, I just checked my site stats and most of my visitors use firefox 3.0, so that might not be it…unless your employer uses an earlier version.

  45. Weren’t they simply be an over-reaction of the equatorial Pacific as the SSTs returned to their “normal” conditions?

    Two of the most frequently confused words in the English language in recent years are ‘normal’ and ‘average’.

    ‘Average’ is the statistical mean of some sample of a population. The average is only ‘normal’ when the sample is representative of the population as a whole, and the population has a normal distribution.

    Since we have no idea over what periods natural climate cycles occur*, we have no way of knowing whether 30 years or any other time period is a representative sample of the population of climate values (ignoring numerous other issues with sampling climate).

    Hence, to say a 30 year average is normal climate is just an assumption.

    *Nor do we know if climate values have a normal distribution. It appears there are a number of climate oscillations (PDO, AMO, etc) that have warm and cold phases. Therefore, values are only normal in the context of the warm or cold phase, ie as part of that population of values.

    It’s entirely possible (and IMO likely) that the 30 year average used to determine ‘normal’ values is a sample of warm phase conditions (with a couple of volcanic eruptions thrown in for good measure). And we are now going into the cold phase.

  46. RSS has 0.230 C for February’s anomoly down from 0.322 C in January. — John M Reynolds

  47. Frank Mosher: You wrote, “Is it possible the cooling we are seeing now,( PDO,AMO,ENSO, AMSUs), was born in the Super La Nina of 1998-2001?”

    Speculation only: I’d be more apt to say that the Super El Nino of 97/98 was responsible for residual warming up until the last few years, with some additional help from the minor El Ninos in 2002/03, 2004/05, and 2006/07. (Kyle Swanson and Anastasios Tsonis recently reported that the 97/98 El Nino realigned all the climate modes.) Now that that additional heat has disipated, the other indices have realigned again and are headed in the other direction, with help from the decade old decline in Southern Ocean SST anomalies.

  48. The current ENSO forecasts predict that the mild La Nina will turn into a mild El Nino by the end of the year.

    These forecasts, however, did not have this new development built-in of -2.0C anomalies at the beginning of the Nino 3.0 region (the anomalies are not really in the Nino 1,2 regions which is a little south of these cold pools – the Nino 1,2 regions would show up as slightly above average right now).

    Cold pools in this region almost always indicate strenthening La Nina conditions in the long-run (although it will float back and forth for a period of months).

    So, I’m just going with the Trade Wind correlation which indicates the La Nina will strengthen.

    The Trades in all regions are above average right now (but not hugely above average) and they have been above average for a long time now which indicates this cold pool will start migrating across the Pacific now and be replaced by even colder water from below and who knows how cold it will get overall.

    So, we will just have to watch and it might take a few more months before we can say “wow, a really big La Nina has set in” or whether the forecasts are right and a mild El Nino will develop. The forecast models are not always accurate.

  49. @Bob Tisdale

    “Do you use firefox at work? I just investigated this and it appears firefox doesn’t like tinypic images for some reason. It also doesn’t like blogger. Hmmm.”

    I don’t have any problem with tinypic on Firefox, but it could be the type of firewall protection they use. At work we use a ‘trusted source’ algorithm to weed out sites that are otherwise accessible from behind the firewall, and companies can set their own policy about what sites they consider safe/appropriate etc. for work.

    I can reach tinypic images from my department (lunch break only, in case my boss is reading this!), but others in other departments can’t, since their security policy is tuned to be tighter than ours.

  50. “RSS has 0.230 C for February’s anomoly”

    That’s about what I figured based on AMSU daily readings. I had it ~.25.

  51. Bill, are the models set up to assume connections between these various warm and cool pools (from your post it sounds like they are) that predict warmer times ahead? I am wondering if these mini oscillations are not so intricately connected and swing in and out of sync under their own power. That means that the model prediction, based on assumed connections that aren’t there, will not land it’s prediction on the bulls eye. If these pools manage to swing together, and you are right about the trades, the big pond to the left of us could get mighty cold, followed by even further temperature drops as the effects of this cold pond roar over the top of us in North America. What would take the picture over the top would be if the SO and AMO (and any other oscillations out there who want to joing the party) decided to follow suit.

  52. Are these people nuts? I just got this on CNN form the BBC:

    More bad news on climate change
    Matt McGrath
    BBC environment reporter

    Scientists will present the most recent data on sea level rise
    More bad news on climate change is expected as more than 2,000 climate scientists gather in Copenhagen.

    They will be trying to pull together the latest research on global warming ahead of political negotiations later in the year.

    The scientists are concerned that the 2007 reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are already out of date.

    Their data suggests greater rises in sea levels this century.

    For the scientists gathering in the Danish capital, this meeting is about removing as much wriggle room as possible from the political negotiations on a new global climate treaty taking place in December.

    While the IPCC reports of 2007 were praised for their recognition of the causes of global warming, the slow, consensus-based nature of the process, meant more recent data was not included.

    Greater clarity

    But with this meeting taking place outside the IPCC, it means it will have the very latest estimates, and the scientists will have no need to agree every word with the political masters.

    This unfettered atmosphere is likely to produce greater clarity about the scale of some very worrying trends, especially sea level rise.

    The IPCC was widely criticised for stating that sea level rise this century would only amount to 59cm (23in).

    The most recent data, to be presented here, will suggest a far higher figure with dramatic implications for many island nations and coastal regions.

    The meeting is being organised by the University of Copenhagen. Its prorector Lykke Friis said the scientists would be presenting the latest and the clearest information, meaning political leaders would not have the excuse that they needed more research before agreeing on a deal.

    As well as hearing from scientists, the meeting will also look at the social and economic impacts of the global rise in temperatures.

  53. Bill Illis (17:51:45) et al.

    I doubt the short term strengthening of the cool anomalies in Nino3 signal a restrengthening of the current La Nina, instead, I think it is this La Nina’s “last gasp”. CPC’s weekly ENSO updates
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
    have shown that the 0-300 meter oceanic heat contents (a “leading” indicator of warm and cool episodes) have been steadily rising since late December, which is reflected in the shrinking area of cool anomalies at thermocline depth. The recent appearance of the cooler sea surface anomalies in Nino3 appear to simply be upwelling of the last of the cold water around thermocline depth.

  54. Random musing from a madman: If Earth had a global temperature, why would there be icecaps? Wouldn’t it all be ice or all water? Sorry, I know it’s off topic, but I am a random kinda guy.

  55. RSS Mar .32
    RSS Feb .23

    UAH Jan .30
    UAH Feb .36

    Now that is a major divergence, and opposite sign.

  56. La Niña’s/ El Niño’s are like waiting on the rising up of the “Great Pumpkin” in the pumpkin patch!

    You really HAVE to believe in your heart that the great pumpkin is coming … I mean really commit yourself to it, like “IT’S COMING! ”….. like predicting AGW doom and gloom prediction. Hehe!

    OH, OK and maybe a SC 24/23/? sun spec or two! :P LOL

    *EXITING WITH Monty Python “Always look at the bright side if life” : )

  57. In http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

    one gets both the SST temperatures and the SST anomalies, every week or so.
    At the bottom there is animation for both.

    One can see the persistence of hots spots in the anomalies.

    I do not know whether these data differ from the posted on top. Satellite data origins are confusing.

  58. SSSailor and anna v: Do either of you know whose SST data unisys uses?

    Note how in the current unisys SST anomalies that SSSailor linked there is no hotspot in the Barents Sea, North of Scandinavia, but in the NOAA version at the top of this thread there is the hotspot.

  59. RE: http://www.peep.ac.uk I added a couple of comments on their pages. My knowledge in this area of climate change is limited. Although I have learnt a lot from this site. Thanks Anthony! If anyone with greater knowledge and a bit of spare time could do so it would be useful for you to comment on the pages. These pages will be used by students and teachers in the UK to gain an understanding of climate change. If it is just me adding comments they will think I am just an activist of some type who is pushing a political agenda ( well that never happens does it!)

  60. Re Phillip_B of 9/03:
    “*Nor do we know if climate values have a normal distribution. It appears there are a number of climate oscillations (PDO, AMO, etc) that have warm and cold phases. Therefore, values are only normal in the context of the warm or cold phase, ie as part of that population of values.”

    Have a look at all the work on Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ home papge here:

    http://www.itia.ntua.gr/dk/

    He answers this more comprehensively than anyone else on the planet.

    In recognition of his paradigm busting work, he’s been awarded the Henry Darcy Medal 2009 by the European Geosciences Union for his outstanding contributions to the study of hydrometeorological variability and to water resources management.

    In brief, he shows that climate values (geophysical variables in general) do not have a normal distribution.

    They have, and these are the phrases in common use, Hurst phenomenon, long-term persistence, fluctuations on large scales, clustering, state and time scaling, and heavy (or long) distribution tails, Joseph effect, scaling behaviour, long-term persistence, multi-scale fluctuation, long-range dependence, long memory.

    Demetris introduced the descriptor: Hurst-Kolmogorov pragmaticity.

    You should read the Abstract of his Henry Darcy Medal address to be delivered in Vienna towards the end of April. You can access from his home page.

    Richard

  61. Bob T.
    Unisys published data set origen;
    CO-OPS Data Sets Offered through OPeNDAP http://www.nws.noaa.gov/noaaport/html/noaaport.shtml
    Unisys; “At this time, the data used for most of the images on the site are from the National Weather Service via the NOAAPORT satellite feed. Other data sources include Colorado State’s hurricane archive and USGS elevation data.”
    This is a listing of on-line data that is currently accessible through OPeNDAP and it is provided by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services.
    opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/dods- Cached -More from NOAA
    Satellite info; http://www.nws.noaa.gov/noaaport/html/sat_loc.shtml

    These folks serve a paying clientele. I doubt any fudging of the data.
    I have observed the Unisys SST Anom for some ten+ years. The hot spot/s occurs quite regularly in the Barents, White, and Kara seas and can persist through-out the northern winter. My guess is that it represents a gyre of warmer water. Sea water temperature/densities differences are significant in that the water will not mix. A seasoned off-shore fisherman will work surface temperature differences of .1 deg. f. A 4000 ton submarine can float “all stop” “dead stick” on a .4 deg. f layer of cold water at any operational depth.

  62. Bob T.
    Unisys published data set origen;
    CO-OPS Data Sets Offered through OPeNDAP [new window][preview][close preview]
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/noaaport/html/noaaport.shtml
    Unisys; “At this time, the data used for most of the images on the site are from the National Weather Service via the NOAAPORT satellite feed. Other data sources include Colorado State’s hurricane archive and USGS elevation data.”
    This is a listing of on-line data that is currently accessible through OPeNDAP and it is provided by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services.
    opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/dods- Cached -More from NOAA
    Satellite info; http://www.nws.noaa.gov/noaaport/html/sat_loc.shtml

    These folks serve a paying clientele. I doubt any fudging of the data.

    I have observed the Unisys SST Anom for some ten+ years. The hot spot/s occurs quite regularly in the Barents, White, and Kara seas and can persist through-out the northern winter. It’s interesting to note that the northern warm anoms at times appear further to the west. My best guess is a gyre of warmer water. Sea water temperature/density differences are significant in that the water will not mix. A very discrete boundary forms with temperature differences a small as .1deg. f. A seasoned off-shore fisherman will work a .1deg. temperature “Break”. A 4000 ton submarine can float indefinitely “all stop, dead stick” on a .4deg. f layer at any operational depth. The temperature pools remain distinct and independent of current.

  63. Bob Tisdale:”Now that that additional heat has disipated, the other indices have realigned again and are headed in the other direction, with help from the decade old decline in Southern Ocean SST anomalies.”
    Does anybody know the energy balance of the pacific sea? Does it have more or less heat than in 1997-1998?
    Though we know TSI it is inmutable, something happened years before the big El Nino (which, by the way, originated or was the pretext for all Climate Change agenda) that heated the pacific ocean, perhaps during five to six years.
    If this issue becomes clarified and “settled” all the GWrs phantasies would become unsubstantiated.

  64. Bob Tisdale. I understand the conventional wisdom is the ” Super El Nino of 1997-1998″. My observation is that since 1950, there have been many more El Ninos than La Ninas. Also El Ninos tend to be of steeper/shorter duration. The “Super La Ninas”, of 1954-1957, 1973-1976, and 1998-2001, were all more persistent than any El Nino during that time period. The sum of positive ONI, during 1997-1998 warm event was 22.0. The sum of the ONI, during the 1998-2001 cold event was -29.5. The net effect, as seen in the ONI was -7.5. The AMSU temps. tend to confirm that the rebound from that La Nina, in the subsequent El Ninos, was muted. Possibly due to the depth and length of that La Nina. Interestingly, we have gone 22 months without a positive ONI. Regards, Frank

  65. Re: http://www.peep.ac.uk On each page there is a link at the bottom to add comments. They are only visible if you click on the “read the comments” link. I commented on a copuple of the pages on the Climate change section and on the computer modelling section.

  66. Denis Hopkins

    There is the section on climate change then ‘next’ which leads to ‘How much climate change is likely’ at the bottom of this is the comments section but it contains no comments.

    Can you go to the precise pages you have posted on, copy and paste the link and place it here. When I see it I will acknowledge it and have a look.

    Tonyb

  67. SSSailor: Thanks for the info you provided.

    You wrote, “These folks serve a paying clientele. I doubt any fudging of the data.”

    I wasn’t inferring that there was anything wrong with the Unisys data. I was just wondering who supplied their data.

    While we’re discussing anomaly maps, it appears it’s the NOAA/NESDIS SST anomaly map (above) that has the errors at high latitudes. Especially that persitant hotspot in the Barents Sea. It does NOT exist in the OI.v2 SST data or their maps. Refer to my post here:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/03/barents-sea-hotspot-isnt-so-hot.html

  68. Frank Mosher: You wrote, “The AMSU temps. tend to confirm that the rebound from that La Nina, in the subsequent El Ninos, was muted. Possibly due to the depth and length of that La Nina.”

    You’ve confused me with that. Here’s a graph of AHU MSU Global Temp and Scaled NINO3.4 SST Anomalies:

    I’ve scaled the NINO3.4 so that the peaks in global temp and scaled NINO3.4 were approximately the same.

    In looking at the graph, if we assume a “Normal Response” of global temperature to an El Nino is dictated by the reaction to the 1997/98 El Nino, the global temp response to the 2002/03 El Nino was muted. I agree with that. However, the response to the NON-Nino of 2003/04 was exaggerated, as was the response to the 2004/05 El Nino. Afterwards, they appear to fall into line again.

  69. Adolfo Giurfa: I preceded the comment that you quoted with “Speculation only.” In other words, it was conjecture.

    You asked, “Does anybody know the energy balance of the pacific sea? Does it have more or less heat than in 1997-1998?”

    Current OHC data is not available online. Or I haven’t found it. The keepers of the data keep it to themselves.

    You wrote, “something happened years before the big El Nino (which, by the way, originated or was the pretext for all Climate Change agenda) that heated the pacific ocean, perhaps during five to six years.”

    Let me ask, would the 1997/98 El Nino have happened if the El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo eruptions had not occurred? More specifically, if those volcanoes had not erupted, would the 1982/83 and 1991/92 El Nino events have distributed heat poleward as El Nino events normally do and thereby eliminating the excessive build-up of tropical heat that was eventually released by the 1997/98 El Nino?

  70. OT I know, but

    Mike Strong (19:14:25) :
    ‘Are these people nuts? I just got this on CNN form the BBC:

    More bad news on climate change
    While the IPCC reports of 2007 were praised for their recognition of the causes of global warming, the slow, consensus-based nature of the process, meant more recent data was not included.

    But with this meeting taking place outside the IPCC, it means it will have the very latest estimates, and the scientists will have no need to agree every word with the political masters.’

    Where and what are these “Estimates”? All one sees everywhere at the moment is “It’s worse than we thought” alarm, alarm! I take it Estimates mean models and not new observations different to what I see here?

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