La Niña conditions: still there

Click for larger image.

I don’t have tome to do a pixel analysis (anyone is welcome to do so and post in comments) but it appears by eyeball analysis that we may have about a 50-50 cool to warm anomaly over all of the oceans surface.

h/t to Bill Illis

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Fernando

ONI value (December 2008–February 2009) is −0.8ºC.

Richard111

Interesting “hotspot” in the Barents Sea. I wonder why?

Mary Hinge

I wonder if there are continuing data problems here. The difference between the latest map http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
and from a week ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
seems to show an exceptionall rapid cooling from the East Pacific continuing through Meso America into and beyond the Caribbean. The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.
It will be interesting to compare other sources with this one before making any conclusions but if this is an accurate map it is very interesting indeed.

tty

If you look at the sea-ice coverage at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.2.26.2009.gif
it is obvious that they are still using the faulty SSM/I sensor to decide what is ice and what is water. No wonder the water is cold in Baffins Bay and Hudson Bay!

Mike McMillan

Mary Hinge (05:12:07) :
I wonder if there are continuing data problems here. The difference between the latest map http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
and from a week ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.2.2009.gif
seems to show an exceptionall rapid cooling from the East Pacific continuing through Meso America into and beyond the Caribbean. The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.

I suspect the two links go to the same map.
🙂
Have a better link, s’il vous plait?

Tim G

Just curious: how do you tell? Just cold water off the West side of South America?
Thanks,
tim

TerryS

Re Fernando
I calculated it to be -0.08C but I literally used standard unix command line tools to do it and excluded all sea ice so I’m not 100% sure of my answer.

MattN

Bummer, no h/t for me 🙁 . I posted this up yesterday in the solar thread…
This looks a little more impressive to me than the conditions back in January, which just looked weak. Also, WTF is going on off the western coast of Africa?
SOI was still very positive last month. With a cooling nino1+2 region, I expect March to cool a good bit (anomaly-speaking) from Jan-Feb.

robert brucker

The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.

MattN

The nino1+2 region has cooled considerably in just 4 days. Compare the picture above to the one from the 5th: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.5.2009.gif

Sven

It’s interesting how rapidly AMSU has gone up again in March. Especially when we have a la nina…?!
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

Jack

I can’t claim to understand a lot of what is discussed here….but what is interesting is that no country seems to be interested in discussing the impact of an open shipping passage in the arctic this year.
Ultimately, I don’t think that we skeptics will actually win the the AGW argument, they don’t seem to able to appreciate a rational argument…..but time will. The credibility of science will take a hit, but Al Gore and the media, (and hopefully a lot of politicians) will become jokes. History has not been kind to those who lead the popular delusions and the madness of crowds.

The NINO3.4 SST anomaly (OI.v2) for the week centered on Wednesday Feb 25, 2009 was -0.53 deg C. It had risen for a few weeks up to then.
http://s5.tinypic.com/2dwe9k.jpg
The above graph is from my monthly SST update for February, here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/03/february-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html
The last weekly update of OI.v2 SST data has NINO3.4 SST anomalies sitting at -0.62 deg C. Sorry, no graph. But here’s the link to the OI.v2 SST data.
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&lite=&ptype=ts&dir
And there are instructions for downloading OI.v2 SST data from NOMADS at the end of this post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/secondary-repeated-enso-signal.html

Mary Hinge

Mike McMillan (06:00:20) :
I suspect the two links go to the same map.
🙂
Have a better link, s’il vous plait?

Oops, Je suis désolé!
Here is the correct link to todays map. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.9.2009.gif

Rejean Gagnon

Mary,
you should be “désolée” lol
Rej

Email received from John Sapper @ NOAA in response to an email I sent him about apparent sensor issues (with regards to sea ice) that is mentioned above:
Hi Fred,
I should probably put a disclaimer on these images about the data not being reliable outside the 70 North to 70 South latitude range.
I don’t think it is a sensor issue. Only that the data are very sparse in polar regions.
Cheers,
John

Richard 111: I posted about that Barents Sea hotspot back in August, here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/barents-and-bering-seas.html
The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg
That August post was based on ERSST.v2 data and its resolution at that latitude isn’t as good as the OI.v2 data. I’ll try to do another post on that area in the next few days with OI.v2 data to see if there’s anything unusual there. Probably ENSO and AO related. We’ll see.

Denis Hopkins

OT… I am a teacher in england. there is a site for teachers and the public called Physics &Etics Education Project. http://www.peep.ac.uk There is a section on Climate Change. The site aims to be ethical.
Below is the opening page on Climate Change. The facts do not look right to me. the site invites comments. I thought some people on here would be better informed than me.
“Effects of climate change
Introduction
Predicting the exact effects of an increase in global temperature is very difficult. There are many possible physical, social, economic, biological and ecological consequences of Climate Change or Global Warming.
It is expected that greater warming will occur at the poles than at the equator. This will effect atmospheric circulation patterns, which are dependent on the temperature differences between these two areas.
Regional rainfall patterns are likely to be drastically altered, which will change the patterns of world food production.
Parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heatwaves, others will see an increased intensity of tropical storms
Sea levels will rise due to –
Melting of ice (glaciers and polar ice)
The thermal expansion of water
Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43cm. This rise will cause –
Flooding
Salinisation of soils (increased saltiness)
Coastal erosion
No one is certain how quickly it will rise but for the UK, an estimate of 0.3m to 0.6m by the year 2050. This may not sound like much, but many small island nations are barely above current sea levels.”
I am sure these were the most alarmist figures and were long discredited. But cannot remember detail.

Mary Hinge

robert brucker (06:17:02) :
The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.

It certainly does, it was interesting that January showed that the -ive PDO was getting stronger http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.

Tim G: The most commonly used area for determining the strength of an El Nino or La Nina is the NINO3.4 area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The NINO3.4 area is bordered by the coordinates 5S-5N, 170W-120W. Here’s a map:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2z67d6s.jpg
The El Nino or La Nina is usually expressed as the NINO3.4 SST anomaly.

MartinGAtkins

Mary Hinge (05:12:07) :

The sea ice coverage also looks very suspect.

tty (05:55:59) :

it is obvious that they are still using the faulty SSM/I sensor to decide what is ice and what is water. No wonder the water is cold in Baffins Bay and Hudson Bay!

It’s a SST anomaly graphic, not an ice area graphic. The white areas only indicateice.
The faulty sensor is on a polar orbiter, NOAA uses several different satellites depending on the data they need. You should find the information about them here.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/info/index.html
Mary this might be what you want. It’s an time series animation and shows that cold water devoloping around Meso America .
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

Fernando

TerryS (06:11:06): Thanks
I user: Cut the area and weigh
I think the blue win:
Result: -0.2ºC. (Poor)
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6119/wuwtsea.gif
mercator projection
Greenland is presented as having roughly as much land area as Africa, when in fact Africa’s area is approximately 14 times that of Greenland.
Alaska is presented as having similar or even slightly more land area than Brazil, when Brazil’s area is actually more than 5 times that of Alaska.
Finland appears with a greater north-south extent than India, although India’s is the greater.
Wiki.
NOAA 03/09/2009 ……….NOAA 03/02/2009
Niño 4……. -0.6ºC…………Niño 4………. -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4…. -0.6ºC…………Niño 3.4……..-0.5ºC
Niño 3…….. -0.7ºC………..Niño 3………..-0.3ºC
Niño1+2…… 0.3ºC………..Niño1+2…….. 0.4ºC

TerryS: Am I missing something from another thread? At the top of this one, Fernando reported on the ONI value for December through February, which is the average of the monthly (Dec, Jan, Feb) SST anomalies for the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W). How could sea ice have any bearing on your calculation of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies?

It seems that we will have several la Ninas ahead, all data appeared up to now in WUWT points to that scenario. PDO will be there for 22 years more, the sun still having a long nap, Livingston and Penn waiting for spots to disappear by 2015 or before, sun itself doing small rounds around barycenter, etc.
It seems that from the last big el Nino in 1998 the sea has been losing its heat.
But, the question again arises (because it is really difficult to make forecasts but easier to analyze past events): What did it happen, around, taking into account a time lag of 6 years, say,in 1991-92?

Tim G

Thank you Bob! That helps.
–t

Frank Mosher

La Nina seems the likely scenario given the telltale warm pool at 160-180e, 150m depth, seen here.http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/NCC_Equator/2009/Feb.gif

Pearland Aggie

Bob Tisdale,
I enjoy perusing your website during my lunch period. However, FYI, images from tinypic.com are blocked by corporate firewalls in my company and possibly others. I’ve also had a similar problem with WUWT from time to time albeit not as often.
Thanks for all the great work on ENSO driving climate variation!

Tom in Florida

The problem I have with this type of color coded map is that it does not indicate what the anomoly is based on. For instance, there is no way the waters around Florida are cooler than the waters around Long Island. I realize that the map does not indicate temperature but the + or – from an “average” temperature for that particular area. But there is no indication of what the average is for each area or what time frame they are using to get the average temperature to base the anomoly on. Or perhaps I missed that.

MartinGAtkins

Bob Tisdale
Glad you popped in. There have been a lot quires SSTs. I like doing my own charts but some times it’s hard to keep and analysis is not my strong point.
Your blog is an excellent resource for all regardless of experience. Thank you for the work you do.

Richard111

Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :
Thank you. Look forward to you next examination of the Barents Sea anomaly.

Richard111

tsk.. your

TerryS

Re: Bob Tisdale (08:25:40) :
I was bored and had some spare time in work so I assigned each colour in the graphic a temperature value, added them all up and divided by the number of pixels (excluding ice, land and legend pixels) and came up with the average. Its probably the wrong way to do it since the area of each pixel isn’t the same but I thought I’d give a go.

Steven Goddard

I removed all of the -0.5-+0.5 pixels, and corrected for latitudinal distortion. Below normal pixels are about 20% of the map area, and above normal pixels are about 10%.
The reason for removing those +/-<0.5 pixels is that they are too close to “normal” since no one really knows what normal is within that precision. Should a measurement at +0,01 be marked as yellow?

Fernando

TerryS: I understand what you are doing.
The picture is more blue pixels.
Right:
Only the lack GISS algorithm.
Salutes

Frank Lansner

Cryosphere: global ice extend reaches clean zero anomaly 1/3/2009:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
In the days hereafter, it seems we will see positive anomalies:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/opdaterede-sol-is-hav-temp-grafer-osv–d12-e424-s260.php#post_11160

Alex

It seems as though the conditions are slipping fast though, SOI is dropping as it did last year in March: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
and it has never been above 19-ish since the 08 la Nina,,, so conditions are cool but not as strong as last year, although this year it has persisted for longer.
I also noted that warm spot by Barents sea… it always seems to be there…
Also the horse-shoe cold negative PDO anomaly… fascinating stuff indeed!!
Hoping this year will bring some snow to South Africa like last year :), I’m sure it is at this point loathed by many in America and Eurasia but here we just can’t get enough of it when it rarely does fall!

Ron de Haan

Fred Nieuwenhuis (07:08:09) :
“Email received from John Sapper @ NOAA in response to an email I sent him about apparent sensor issues (with regards to sea ice) that is mentioned above:
Hi Fred,
I should probably put a disclaimer on these images about the data not being reliable outside the 70 North to 70 South latitude range.
I don’t think it is a sensor issue. Only that the data are very sparse in polar regions.
Cheers,
John”
Fred,
This implicates that:
1. NOAA should add a permanent disclaimer for all their maps and it should also apply with the temp data sets.
2. NOAA does not know what’s happening at the poles.
Do you agree?

MartinGAtkins

Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :

The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg

It appears in both volcanically active areas (Iceland and Svalbard) You would think that unless they where about to blow they shouldn’t show up on an anomaly graphic. However anomaly graphics may miss this as they are a product of a time period and may shift depending on ocean currents. They get lost in the noise. Only when the currents change for a prolonged period from the anomaly period do they show up as a persistent hot spot. This would explain the southerly Icelandic hot spot.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

Alex

Also World sea ice is at normal levels according to cryosphere today.
I suspect the effects of these (weak) La Nina conditions will only be seen same time as last year, around May due to the lag…but it probably won’t be as steep.
I might be wrong but we will just have to wait and see the May anomaly.

John F. Hultquist

Richard111 (04:54:35) :
“Interesting “hotspot” in . . . ”
Off of the coast of Namibia where the cold Benquela Current is supposed to be. Your post caused me to look and notice. But, of course, I have no idea if this is part of a regular cycle or something.
O/T: (for all) See Climate Audit for a request for funds to rebuild CA’s server.

Pearland Aggie: You wrote, “images from tinypic.com are blocked by corporate firewalls in my company and possibly others.”
Thanks for telling me. I had no idea. Are the graphs blocked by the firewall when they’re part of blogspot thread also? Or does it only happen as a stand-alone tinypic address? What image posting site makes it through okay?

Pierre Gosselin

Richard 111
That hotspot has been stuck there for months and months. I think the measurement system might be flawed or something.

E.M.Smith

Adolfo Giurfa (08:26:18) : What did it happen, around, taking into account a time lag of 6 years, say,in 1991-92?
IIRC it snowed in the Santa Cruz mountains in California in places that don’t normally get much snow. Road to Mt. Hamilton was snowed shut. Cold…

Paul

Denis Hopkins above links to “Physics and Ethics Education Project”. Please take a look if you can. Ethicss is exactly the issue here and the PEEP site is clearly slanted.
Here we have an issue that threatens the economy of the world and because of this threatens the lives of literally millions of people. The PEEP site misrepresents the reality opf the situation and pretends for example that hypothetical ocean rise is a more serious than the real life economic dislocation and starvation of tens of millions. It is sick and twisted to pretend their positon is ethical.

Adolfo Giurfa: Weren’t the 1998/99/2000 and 2000/01 La Nina events a part of the 1997/98 El Nino? Weren’t they simply be an over-reaction of the equatorial Pacific as the SSTs returned to their “normal” conditions?

Ron de Haan

MartinGAtkins (11:06:10) :
“Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :
The following link is to Figure 1 from that post. It’s the same NOAA map as above, but dated 5/5/08. Same hot spot.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2ld80ty.jpg
It appears in both volcanically active areas (Iceland and Svalbard) You would think that unless they where about to blow they shouldn’t show up on an anomaly graphic. However anomaly graphics may miss this as they are a product of a time period and may shift depending on ocean currents. They get lost in the noise. Only when the currents change for a prolonged period from the anomaly period do they show up as a persistent hot spot. This would explain the southerly Icelandic hot spot.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
MartinGAtkins and Bob Tisdale (07:17:44) :
Iris registered some heavy quakes near Svalgaard, three quakes, 6.4 RS

Bob Tisdale: My intention is to provoke a discussion about what were the reasons for that extraordinary event, instead of trying to forecast the future to try to “forecast” the past. Which were the causes. In short: To digg the past out.

Pearland Aggie

Bob Tisdale,
Both are blocked. I cannot see either.
Thanks!

Frank Mosher

Adolfo. I agree. Asking questions about previous events, and making comparisons can lead to knowledge. I am not good at predictions. I just make observations. Frank

Keith Minto

” Mary Hinge (07:30:35) :
robert brucker (06:17:02) :
The above map not only demonstrates La Nina. Correct me if I am wrong, but the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly around the warmer central Pacific represents the negative PDO persisting.
It certainly does, it was interesting that January showed that the -ive PDO was getting stronger http://jisao.washington.edu/p
Another way is to ask the fishermen off the coast of Chile if they are catching any anchovies.
They do when it cold but not when it is El Nino warm.