Guest Post by Steven Goddard
It appears that global cooling recognition may be starting to make headway in the scientific community. We have this Discovery/MSNBC article about a NOAA scientist titled “Warming might be on hold, study finds”
“It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970’s was due to a free variation in climate,” Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. “Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again.”
And Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years.
Here’s the complete story from The Discovery Channel via MSNBC:
For those who have endured this winter’s frigid temperatures and today’s heavy snowstorm in the Northeast, the concept of global warming may seem, well, almost wishful.But climate is known to be variable – a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn’t mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.
Earth’s climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.
“This is nothing like anything we’ve seen since 1950,” Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. “Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn’t have one.”
Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a “super El Nino event.” It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.
How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.
The discrepancy gets to the heart of one of the toughest problems in climate science – identifying the difference between natural variability (like the occasional March snow storm) from human-induced change.
But just what’s causing the cooling is a mystery. Sinking water currents in the north Atlantic Ocean could be sucking heat down into the depths. Or an overabundance of tropical clouds may be reflecting more of the sun’s energy than usual back out into space.
“It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970’s was due to a free variation in climate,” Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. “Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again.”
Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it’s just a hiccup, and that humans’ penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.
“When the climate kicks back out of this state, we’ll have explosive warming,” Swanson said. “Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive.”
© 2009 Discovery Channel
That is strange. We hear from highly respected authorities that we were in a period of “unprecedented warming.” How can it be both warming and cooling at the same time? Maybe those DC protesters didn’t need to stand out in the cold and try to shut down their primary source of energy today.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
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3×2 (16:52:42) :
“Indeed it will. In some 5 billions years it will fry the Earth to a crisp.”
Not sure either of you are right. Isn’t there a theory that the Milky Way is set to collide with Andromeda in about 2.5 billion years.
Collision of galaxies have no effect on the stars in them because of the vast distance between each star.
Pamela Gray (07:15:58) :
Robert, please inform me
OK I assume you mean this Robert, me.
No, I don’t think any one cause is responsible for cyclic temperature shifts on the planet. It’s a combination of solar output and ocean cycles and albedo chages. But, I cannopt differentiate, myself, the importance between solar changes and albedo changes.
Leif Svalgaard (17:44:40) :
Collision of galaxies have no effect on the stars in them because of the vast distance between each star.
Indeed, the mean life time of a star is greater than the supposed age of the universe.
[Al Gore may be open season, but even this went a bridge too far ~ charles the moderator]
Indeed, that is the real problem. My wife keeps saying, “Somebody just has to educate Obama and the people around him, that CO2 is not a problem!” But they are not interested in the science. It doesn’t matter. ‘Climate change’ is just a convenient hook on which to hang a whole new regimen of taxes and controls on the American (and ultimately, the world) economy.
Carol Browner is planning to start implementing CO2 ‘pollution’ rules next month, on the anniverary of the idiotic Supreme Court decision that allows the EPA to regulate CO2 as a ‘pollutant’. This will give the Obama regime the ability to control every industrial, commercial, business, home, and personal process that emits CO2, right down to every breath you exhale.
Madam Pelosi has promised to bring up Cap and Trade by August. Once it’s in place, it will be damnably hard to repeal, even if the Republicans regain control of the Congress in 2010 (and many of them are not averse to more taxes, either). The time to stop all this is now, and I repeat, to do it we’re going to need some prominent people to stand up and say “No!”
Yes, as someone said above, the Internet and blogs like this can help mobilize support, but to get the media and the political elite to pay attention, it’s going to take leadership, preferably someone the press and TV can’t ignore.
/Mr Lynn
Here is a taste of ocean sourced weather that could very well be tied to a trended down PDO oscillation. If the cold PDO stays around for a while, this kind of weather pattern could become, dare I say it, a climate change. Fortunately, I don’t believe in climate change unless the ground under me moves. I do however, believe in weather pattern cycles or variations that trend up, down, or stay flat, over a considerable length of time. So if you want to call that climate change, go right ahead. If you do, we will have to come up with a new term that means what climate used to mean. That was back in the day when climate change meant that big chunks of Earth’s land crust had moved to warmer or colder climates. Which is what I might be doing if this weather system does what I think it is capable of doing. But the best is yet to come. Can’t wait for it to hit Washington DC.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2009
ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-WAZ024-026>030-501-502-040830-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
WALLOWA COUNTY-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…THE DALLES…DUFUR…MADRAS…MAUPIN…
MORO…BEND…LA PINE…PRINEVILLE…REDMOND…ARLINGTON…
BOARDMAN…HERMISTON…LA GRANDE…ELGIN…UNION…ENTERPRISE…
JOSEPH…WALLOWA…HEPPNER…PENDLETON…MEACHAM…TOLLGATE…
UKIAH…CONDON…FOSSIL…SPRAY…JOHN DAY…MONUMENT…
DAYVILLE…LONG CREEK…MITCHELL…SENECA…WHITE SALMON…
ELLENSBURG…SUNNYSIDE…YAKIMA…CONNELL…PROSSER…
TRI-CITIES…DAYTON…WAITSBURG…WALLA WALLA…CLE ELUM…
EASTON…ROSLYN…NACHES…GOLDENDALE…APPLETON…TROUT LAKE…
BICKLETON
1230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2009
…A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT…
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AT MIDDAY IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS
EVENING AND INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF ONE-HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA FROM CONDON…
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH HERMISTON…INTO THE TRI-CITIES REGION OF
WASHINGTON. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. HOWEVER…IF THE LOW MOVES A LITTLE WEST OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK…A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW COULD OCCUR AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTERN YAKIMA COUNTY IN WASHINGTON. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS NEXT STORM…AND WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
How do you write WOW in long enough sentences to clear moderation.
Doesn’t sound much like a consensus. Don’t worry though they will find a non-human explanation for cooling otherwise one of the hottest industries on earth will die out.
Robert Wood (18:12:47) :
indeed, the mean life time of a star is greater than the supposed age of the universe.
Some live that long, some don’t. Very massive stars live only a few million years. Galaxies grow by eating smaller ones. Our Milky Way, too. If is right now eating a small dwarf galaxy: http://www.solstation.com/x-objects/sag-deg.htm
“Collision of galaxies have no effect on the stars in them because of the vast distance between each star.”
No effect? Hmmm. There is much evidence of significant gravitational warping of the galaxies involved in collisions, triggers of massive star formation events, star movements being altered, etc. I assume what is being said is that it is unlikely that many stars will undergo actual collisions due to the vast distances between the stars. True enough, but there are plenty of ways a galaxy collision could have significant effects on a star, its local neighborhood, and certainly on the dynamics of the relatively tiny planets within its region. Again, as with all collisions, it all depends on how close to the action you end up being.
I’m on the same page as you all so keep that in mind as I respond to a couple of the comments:
rickM (06:40:57) :
“I don’t like this one bit and if a skeptic were to ever use the line “think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate,” what do you think the result would be?”
Tsonis does work with chaos modeling–something other climate modelers should try. This “alignment” he speaks of has to do with attractors. And I don’t think anyone really disputes that there was a change in climate in the ’70’s, we may be on our way to another one now. I have admiration (a techy term) for the work Tsonis is doing.
Bernie (06:43:30) :
“Jari:
With all due respect, this article does not appear to be based on any empirical data whatsoever and is simply an exercise in modelling.”
Actually I think this is a use of climate modelling that is very valuable–as a research tool. As I understand it (having only read the abstract) the climate model was used to ‘determine’ the temp record of about 500 years prior to the last century. This set up a control, so to speak, to test the accuracy/validity and weaknesses of various methods of using proxy data to determine past temps. Unless I’m projecting, they smeared some of the data from the model, wiped out other data, and the result could then be used as a kind of proxy itself for testing methods.
“John Judge (03:27:55) :
This reminds me of that classic military press release, “Our forces have conducted a series of brilliant retreats while the enemy continues to advance in total confusion”.”
Funny! Thanks for the laugh.
“MarkW (04:49:48) :
Let’s see if I have this right.
A tiny fraction of the warming of the last 30 years was due to natural variability.
On the other hand, when natural variability swings to the cold side, it is powerfull enough to cancel out warming completely, and then some, for thirty years.”
Nice!
Mr Lynn (19:27:51) :
…. it’s going to take leadership, preferably someone the press and TV can’t ignore.
————————————
Where there’s a Will, there’s a way.
“tallbloke (06:06:54) :
If they “don’t know what’s causing the cooling” they are admitting that they also don’t necessarily know what was causing the warming.”
This makes sense to you and me. That’s why you and me are on this side of the issue. At the point when people from that other side want to start making sense of things they’ll end up on our side too.
Ross (21:06:06) :
Got a good laugh at your Nothing page.
Violates its own assertion. Or does it? Too deep for me!
Try it now…
“Steven Goddard (06:35:50) :
The esteemed Dr. Hansen (who spent the day yesterday freezing with a bunch of Hippies) has reportedly forecast that 2009 or 2010 may be the hottest year on record.”
What else is new. With GISS data passing through his hands before it reaches the public that prediction has a very high probability of happening–at least in that data set. Nice to have to power to make your predictions come true. 😉
————————
Steven,
Do you have an update on snow total at Kirkwood since the Steven Chu’s visit to California? Heavenly got 30″ just today.
Right now The Weather Channel is talking about “combating the drought” in California. It’s been raining for days here in the Bay Area with few days in the last month where it hasn’t rained. I think rain is a pretty descent way to combat drought.
jwt,
The Chu effect is indeed impressive.
Accuweather is forecasting another two feet of snow for Lake Tahoe
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ca/lake-tahoe/AB957/forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=1&zipChg=1&metric=0
And Kirkwood has received 86cm in the last three days.
http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/california/skireport.html
Northstar has received 132cm in the last three days.
Mammoth has a 493cm base.
Good thing Arnie declared a drought emergency last week.
It’s the “Al Chu,nah” effect, not to be mistaken for the myth of ” El Niño and La Niña” effect.
There’s only one effect, the suns effect on the oceans(water) and land.
And if you dive( I do) you’ll notice the temperature drop the deeper you dive with lack of light.
There’s no hidden heat under the oceans, heat rises up last time I checked my physics books.
The sun warming of H2O will off gas water vapor that’s lighter then air and rises radiating the heat through convection, out of our atmosphere.
Of course then colliding with particles in the ionosphere, producing a nuclei to gather up the clean water vapor into clouds and return it to earth with small amounts of CO2, NO2, C14 dissolved(or included)) in it.
… but, but,
…can’t believe my lying eyes;
I see it, yet it is not.
Negative self-referential statements are not to be believed.
Nice anim too!
3×2 (06:06:24) :
Re: B Kerr (03:35:51) : (Discovery Channel – “Ways to Save the Planet”)
Providing the focal point could be varied and moved around the planet, cities and even entire countries could pre-order their weather. Using mirrors it could even be ordered for the night time hours when, of course, it would be cheaper.
Lets hear you Australians and Californians mock the UK when we have a pleasant and sunny 23C year-round, even at night. Not laughing so loud now are you?
23C sounds good to me.
But moving 16 trillion lenses all at once?
If historical patterns of climate change strongly indicate that we are now due for another ice age, is it possible that increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in our atmosphere are beneficial because they will act as a countervailing force against the onset of a new ice age?
Harleigh Kyson Jr.
hkyson (04:08:38) :
I read in one paper that glaciations didn’t occur when the CO2 was above about 500PPM. Nobody knows if CO2 would really make a difference, but even if it does we’re still too low.
If ice core analysis is correct, then there’s no reason to believe any reasonable amount of CO2 will prevent an ice age.
As for “no ice ages occurring when CO2 is above 500ppm”, that pretty much ignores other factors, such as the positions of the continents and the affects they have on ocean currents.