Guest post by Steven Goddard
The UK Met Office forecast last Autumn “the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. ” We have now passed the 2/3 mark of the meteorological winter, and it is time for another report card to send home. Yesterday’s press release was titled “Wintry start to February” which stated “So far, the UK winter has been the coldest for over a decade” and “Met Office forecasters expect the cold theme to the weather to continue well into next week with the chance of further snow.”
The UK is expecting the heaviest snow in about 20 years tomorrow. “Snow and freezing weather threaten to shut down Britain Arctic blizzards are set to cause a national shutdown on Monday as forecasters warn of the most widespread snowfall for almost 20 years.” “Now is the time you’d expect to see the daffodils coming out but we’re not expecting them for two or three weeks at best if it warms up.“
So why is this important? Climate is not weather, after all. The Met Office is one of the most vocal advocates of human induced global warming, and they have gotten into a consistent pattern of warm seasonal forecasts which seemingly fall in line with that belief system. Is it possible that their forecasts are unduly influenced by preconceived notions about the climate? It is worth remembering that London had it’s first October snow in 70 years this past autumn.
Or perhaps they know exactly what they are doing, and are just having a several year run of extremely bad luck with their long term forecasting.
The weather as it happens on BBC news 24
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7459669.stm
TonyB (08:28:32) :
Alan the Brit
Just started here on the South Devon coast a few minutes ago. We seem to have missed the complete chaos in London however-so far!
It’s been snowing most of the day up here in Cheshire. Started off with around 2 inches this morning, now at around 3 inches. I love a good snowstorm, might go sledging tomorrow!
Gosh, I wish my wife were as tolerant of brainless incompetence as the Brits.
An insightful article on snow:
10 ways to cope with snow
See Full Article
The talk about Dalton Minimums and Little Ice Ages in these comments scares me a helluva lot more than any of the AGWer’s blather, or one snowstorm.
But if the result of all the controversy concerning climate results in better temperature measurement and accurate weather/climate prediction, hey, I think we should spend a few taxpayer’s bucks on it.
However, I see no evidence whatsoever that long-term predictions come anywhere close to being reliable. Weather is still a local phenomenon, and climate, well, if reliable data could possibly be obtained…….maybe future behaviour could be guessed at. As it lays today, it’s anyone’s opinion what the future holds, and likely, 99% of today’s opinions are wrong. Lots of time and money are being wasted on something that ultimately may be impossible to do.
Looking at the computer projections for the next 2 weeks, I’d say Britain will stay bloody cold for as long as the computers can see.
http://www.wetter24.de/de/home/wetter/profikarten/gfs_popup/archiv/Europe/t2m/2009020212/nothumb/on/57/ch/c723aed076.html
Haha Flanagan, I don’t think you can jump on that conclusion just yet, this warming seems to be short term, and is just an abrupt spike in the data, so I wouldn’t say that it has been warming long enough to verify the AGW hypothesis,,, interesting to see what will happen but still too early to know for sure.
Paul
Now 8pm and we have had only one shower so the ground is bartely white. The main snow seems to be falling over North Devon
TonyB
I think this is worth pointing out. If no UK government officer will ask, then why not WUWT. The Met Office has been doing these 3-6 month (season) predictions coverage for the last 3 years.
They have been successfully getting some pretty heavy, unexamined media coverage that must be very nice for them. The fact that they have been statistically been wrong from stem to stern in all of them for the last three years, kinda gets missed in the headlines I notice .
I understand the idea that weather isn’t climate, but the strange category of 3 month prediction that the Met Office has undertaken seems to only point to a political expectation, rather than actual scientific worth.
The Met Office can predict weather well to a week ahead. I suspect they are not unusual in that in comparison to other nations. I guess I will have to wait till I am old to finally hear the inside skinny about what went on with the guys in the met Office weather department and their discussions with the people with the overextended prophet tea leaf reader tendencies
Green is in your future.
——————————–
California’s ‘Green Jobs’ Experiment Isn’t Going Well
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336500319935517.html?mod=djemEditorialPage
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was all smiles in 2006 when he signed into law the toughest anti-global-warming regulations of any state. Mr. Schwarzenegger and his green supporters boasted that the regulations would steer California into a prosperous era of green jobs, renewable energy, and technological leadership. Instead, since 2007 — in anticipation of the new mandates — California has led the nation in job losses.
The environmental plan was built on the notion that imposing some $23 billion of new taxes and fees on households (through higher electricity bills) and employers will cost the economy nothing, while also reducing greenhouse gases. Almost no one believes that anymore except for the five members of the California Air Resources Board (CARB). This is the state’s air-quality regulator, which voted unanimously in December to stick with the cap-and-trade system despite the recession. CARB justified its go-ahead by issuing what almost all experts agree is a rigged study on the economic impact of the cap-and-trade system. The study concludes that the plan “will not only significantly reduce California’s greenhouse gas emissions, but will also have a net positive effect on California’s economic growth through 2020.”
“Energy prices will rise, and major capital investment will be needed in public transit and new transmission lines. Industries that are energy intensive will move elsewhere.”
“…”the economic costs don’t really matter anyway, because we are supposedly facing an environmental apocalypse.”
Mr. Schwarzenegger fits into that camp. He recently declared: “I recommend very strongly that we move forward . . . . You will always have people saying this will lose jobs.”
Meanwhile, the state is losing jobs, a lot of them. California’s unemployment rate hit 9.3% in December, up from 4.9% in December 2006. There are now 1.5 million Californians out of work. The state has the fourth-highest housing foreclosure rate in the nation, has lost more businesses than any state in recent years, and is facing a $40 billion deficit. With cap and trade firmly in place, the economic situation is only likely to get worse.
Green policies have a tendency to push states into the red.
Interesting account in The Times about how LIA ice made possible Sweden’s conquest of Copenhagen, by allowing the army to march across the ice.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article5469363.ece
Too bad the Swedes didn’t check out their Bristlecone Pine proxies before marching. They would have known it was impossible to reach Denmark, had they properly consulted with the IPCC.
The HADCET anomaly based on 1961-1990 for January is given as -0.5C yet Philip Eden in the Daily Telegraph states that the January CET of 3.1C was 1.1C below the 1971-2000 average. Do none of these people have a common starting base or would that be too much to ask? And if climate is weather over time, who decided that 30 years averages should be the yardstick rather than 50 or 100?
Yep, Al Gore is right ; ) …The headlines from The Guardian prove it:
Day the snow came – and Britain stopped
Roads, railways airports closed
Heaviest snow in 18 years
Storm likely to cost UK over £1bn
Sam Jones and Audrey Gillan
guardian.co.uk,
Monday 2 February 2009 19.25 GMT
Phil’s Dad (16:06 1/02/09) sorry to spoil the joke but Eros is alumin(i)um (the fountain is bronze).
Have the predictions or mild winters influenced decisions on expenditure on snow ploughs and gritters?
“As London ground to a virtual standstill Mayor Boris Johnson also faced questions over the inability of the capital’s infrastructure to cope with six inches of snow.
Mr Johnson admitted London did not have enough snow ploughs to keep the roads clear and defended the decision to suspend all bus services, which left thousands of angry commuters stranded.
It was the first time in living memory that all London buses have been stopped, something which didn’t even happen during the Blitz”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/4436932/Snow-Councils-and-transport-chiefs-blamed-for-fiasco.html
Richard Heg:
You can blame the Met Office for the £1bn cost and the problems. The Met Office admits it from its press release.
“25 September 2008
The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.
Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning.”
Steven Goddard:
There are some errors in that story about the march across the Belts in 1658. It was not from Sweden to Denmark, but rather within Denmark, from Jutland to Fyn and then across the Great Belt to Seland, and it was not “the Swedish territory in the Scandinavian Peninsula” that Denmark lost – only the three southern provinces of Halland, Scania and Blekinge. Apart from that the story is essentially correct. As a matter of fact a Swedish historian once countered the usual argument that historical evidence for the LIA is just “anecdotal”, by pointing out that the fact that Scania is part of Sweden rather than Denmark must be considered rather strong evidence that the Belts really did freeze in 1658.
@Pierre Gosselin (11:39:38)
Yep, agree on that. My weather model for the local weather (Frankfurt/Germany) does predict only a short period of better temps of 2 to 4 days around Feb. 13th, then another minor cold spell and the “nicer” temperatures starting not before approx. Feb. 25th.
By the way, TAO’s Pacific Warm Water Volume is updated, too:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/wwv.dat
Ah, I see, thanks Mary, I missed that discussion. So we have La Nina conditions but not necessarily a La Nina event, because the conditions haven’t continued for more than 5 consecutive 3-month blocks. Sweet, that makes sense.
For all the meteorologists out there, is it fair to say that La Nina conditions cause immediate weather effects, or will they form only slowly over the seasons? In other words, is a La Nina event simply a statistical nicety, or does it have any physical significance?
Pardon the dumb questions, I’m trying to get a picture of the impact of ENSO on the reported weather, since this appears to be a common mechanism of the media – to ascribe all anomalous weather events to AGW. My reading so far suggests immediate effects, but I’d like to hear it from the experts if possible.
I fully agree – as a “ex-Protean” living in NZ I have had a very good run recently.
Here in Memphis, according to the weather underground, Memphis has had 2016 “heating degree days” since July 1. “Normal” is 1967. Last year we had 1717.
Fairly good evidence it has been colder here this year.
“Have the predictions or mild winters influenced decisions on expenditure on snow ploughs and gritters? ”
Maybe not snow ploughs and gritters, but I think Cold Weather Payments may have been raised from £8 to £25 on this basis
http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/MoneyTaxAndBenefits/BenefitsTaxCreditsAndOtherSupport/Inretirement/DG_10018668
@Pierre,
Frankfurt/Main Flughafen
has had January as 3rd coldest since 1986:
1987 -4.10
1997 -2.50
2009 -1.00
This kind of cold and snow events in Europe as described by many posters were common in the last era of cold PDO and warm AMO – especially the 1960s (best analogs for this year including all the factors were 1962/63 and 1964/65) and even more so during the time of Dickens in the early 1800s (Dalton Minimum…hmm)
Dickens wasn’t born until 1812 so I’m not sure how much of the Dalton Minimum period he remembered. According to the CET record there were several periods in the 19th century that were just as cold as the DM.
Nigel Sherratt (12:46:40) : wrote:
Phil’s Dad (16:06 1/02/09) sorry to spoil the joke but Eros is alumin(i)um (the fountain is bronze).
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On the assumption that you maybe thought Eros was a brass monkey, my understanding of the story Phil’s Dad (since my Dad doesn’t know a computer from his elbow, I’m assuming that’s another Phil), is that the “balls” refers to iron cannonballs, and the “brass monkey” refers to the base upon which they sat on board the ships of the time. In freezing cold weather (before the rise to prominence of carbon dioxide obviously), the differences in contraction of the two metal objects caused the “balls” to fall off their bases and roll around on the deck.
Punxsutawney Phil is correct somewhere between 75 percent and 90 percent of the time, according to his followers, just like Al Gore. This year Phil sees 6 more weeks of winter in our future.