Met Office Report Card at the 2/3 Mark

Leif Svalgaard
Solar activity is not ramping up from solar minimum which I believe you said had occurred in August 2008 – can you please comment if this is now becoming unusual?
Thanks as ever.

Update from the Times Feb. 20, 2009:
Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt

The heaviest snowfall in 20 years has closed thousands of schools and caused transport chaos up the eastern side of Britain, with London and the surrounding areas the hardest hit.
Six million bus passengers were left in the lurch as all London’s bus services were halted because of dangerous driving conditions, and every Tube line except the Victoria line was at least partially suspended.
Many mainline commuter rail services were also cancelled or seriously delayed, and flights at London’s airports were decimated, with both of Heathrow’s runways shut, Luton and London City closed, and Gatwick and Stansted flights subject to delays and short-notice cancellations.
Millions of commuters stayed at home rather than brave the conditions, as an estimated one in five people either worked from home or took the day off, costing industry hundreds of millions of pounds.
The South East of England and the Pennines bore the brunt of the snowfall which began yesterday afternoon, with some of the hardest-hit areas reporting up to 1ft of snow. By the morning the heavy showers had extended as far north as southern Scotland. . . .
“Southeastern, the UK’s busiest commuter operator, was forced to cancel all services into London with no trains running into Cannon Street, Charing Cross and parts of London Bridge and Victoria stations.
South West Trains, which operates local and long distance routes into London Waterloo, suffered a much reduced service. A spokeswoman said: “We advise passengers not to travel unless their journey is absolutely necessary.” . . .
Flight passengers were advised to check with their airline before leaving for the airport, after BAA reported that both Heathrow’s runways were a shut, causing more than 250 flight cancellations. . . .
“The South West has escaped the worst of the snow, but we could see another 10cm in Greater London over the next 24 hours, and even more than that in Yorkshire and the Pennines,” said a spokeswoman for the Meteo forecasting group.

Perhaps Svensmark’s Cosmoclimatology should be reconsidered in light of the current exceptionally low transition between sunspot cycles 23 to 24 together with possible causes of the Little Ice Age and the Dalton minimum.

Have you noticed the title on the UK Met Office website? It’s no longer “Met Office: Weather” it’s now “Met Office: Weather and climate change”! It’s ironic really given the severe cold weather warnings they’re pumping out today!

SandyInDerby (06:54:04) :
I should have shot them for the pot. Then I’d be able to identify them. I thought they buggers waz pigeons, dang me but they might be Ringed Doves a’ta orl.
It’s the mulled wine I tells yuh. Is weely weely gud.
Pickled Perry

let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Our office “snow day” policies border on the tyrannical. The gal from HR emails us simple tips that will help us get to work while the rest of the free world is following the police advisories to stay off the roads except in the case of medical emergency. It’s truly insane.

2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081230.html
And the previous two winter forecasts,
Updated 22 December 2008
Forecast for the remainder of Winter 2008/9
Temperature
UK mean temperatures are likely to be below average in January and nearer average in February.
Mean temperatures for other parts of Europe during the rest of winter are more likely to be near average, but near or above average in south-east Europe.
Rainfall
Precipitation for the remainder of winter is more likely to be average, or below average over much of Europe, including the UK. However, above-average precipitation is favoured over parts of south-eastern Europe.
Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages.
Updated 22 January 2009
Forecast for the remainder of Winter 2008/9
Temperature
Mean temperatures are likely to be average or below average for the rest of winter over the UK.
Rainfall
Over the UK, precipitation for the rest of winter is most likely to be average, or below average.
Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages.
From 25 September 2008 “Trend of mild winters continues”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080925.html

RW’s posting about averages for winter gives accurate figures for sure — as far as they go. But November is irrelevant, as was pointed out later, and December ’08 CET figure was as low as 228th. I’ve just generated a graph for the December temps for the whole series. I don’t see a trend at all but I’m open to correction.
I hope someone’s going to publish the January CET figure for us now that the Met Office has decided we’re not be allowed to have it.
Freedom on Information Act, anyone? 🙂

Check Heathrow Arrivals .. wanna bet Al Gore is due to arrive in town and this is just “The Gore Effect”