Click for larger image
Source: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
h/t Arthur Glass
About a month ago I posted: La Nina is back…and was criticized by a few folks. Well compare the above to the image from that post below:
Click for larger image
‘As I mentioned in the autumn a return to a La Niña of the strength of last year was extremely small, and that is still true’
JimB,
No one said this current La Nina event was as strong as 2007’s. ENSO is anything but neutral. We are currently is a La Nina that followed in the wake of a Moderate-Strong La Nina from Autumn of 2007. It will probably be a weak La Nina, but it is still a La Nina, never-the-less.
Mike Bryant (14:11:17) :
Hmmmmm I wonder why david and Mary Hinge won’t answer me?
“It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years.”
What will be even more interesting is GISS adjustments. As Hansen uses averages to fill missing values (and GISS seems to have a large number of missing values in their input data), calculated averages using recent higher temperatures tended to boost past temperatures. With every passing month of cooler temperatures, past temperatures will get adjusted downwards.
Look for Hansen to change his “adjustment” method once current temperatures begin to significantly impact his process in a downward direction.
Mary and David:
Might I make a suggestion! If you […….snip…….] find your way to NOAA CPC ENSO. They released their out look and the current and past information regarding ONI. FYI! SEE 3.4 history and modeled future projections. I read what they had to say but do not want to spoil your pleasure upon reading what NOAA thinks about it.
I personally have nothing against NOAA. That said I will say. I normally do not read their site anymore as I can get better predictions from the fortune teller down the road. So I am content to live life by taking one step into the future at a time.
For all those predicting the end of the world: As it says in an old song: Whatever will be will be. The future is not ours to see. Que Sera Sera
Reply: Please avoid direct insults to other posters
~ charles the moderator
Looks like a wet, cool Spring in the Midwest, again. Very similar to last year.
I thought this was an interesting article. It’s a feedback that may or may not be included in GCM’s and may be impacted by cycles in the Pacific.
“Plankton Cool The Southern Hemisphere” Netherlands Organization For Scientific Research (2004, November 24)
Plankton can influence the climate by producing the gas dimethyl sulphide (DMS). This gas is a source of small sulphur particles in the atmosphere, which act as condensation nuclei for the water vapour. The miniscule water drops formed in the air as a result of this, reflect the sunlight back before it reaches the Earth, causing the Earth to cool.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041123172310.htm
thanks
Ed
Steamboat McGoo (13:59:35) : Wrote
As I was saying:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/01/01/nasas-hansen-obama-use-global-warming-redistribute-wealth
______________________________
Hey, the Nobel Peace Prize has been somewhat tarnished recently. Why shouldn’t he go for the Prize for Economics instead ??
Mike C (14:11:11) :
Thanks. That makes a lot more sense than what the article said.
Now the alarmists have another excuse for the ongoing cold in 2009.
Let ’em, try.
Then point out the net results of the last triple El Nino (2002-2007; positive PDO) plus a double La Nina (2007-2007; negative PDO).
Then start talking oceanic cycles.
“Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40-percent increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO2….”
From this artcle:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/some-plankton-thrive-with-more-co2/
So, more CO2 means more plankto, means more DMS, means more clouds, means more rain, and albedo, means we get cooler.
Is that about what they said?
Carole King once sang,
“Snow is cold, rain is wet.”
So maybe it’s time for Judy Collins to look at clouds from both sides, now.
Craig D. Lattig (16:05:44) :
“We appear to be headed into some seriously cold times….if so, then most here understand that there will be serious consequences…that may include a great many deaths”
Craig, that’s exactly my sentiment. That’s why I prefer to be wrong in my expectations (predictions) of a colder cycle to come and rather let the global warming crowd win the debate. Give me global warming any time!
Given that the met office prjected 2009 to be a warm year. Reality will be “BRRRR”.
Hi Anthony,
Thanks for this blog which is a daily read for me.
As to whether the Pacific and the tropics will cool or warm my money is on a warming event to manifest before March. I have explained my reasons at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/01/02/the-southern-oscillation-and-the-sun-2/
If there is any part of that presentation that is of interest to you please go ahead and use it. If I had an email address I would send it to you. Mine is erlathapps.com.au
You will see that I link the occurrence of a warming event to the heating of the upper troposphere by ultraviolet radiation from the sun. In other words 200hPa temperature and vertical velocity responds to a variable local ozone content and a variable level of ultraviolet radiation and it influences surface pressure and wind.
There is a consistent relationship between surface atmospheric pressure in the Pacific near Chile and sea surface temperature between 20°N and 20°S around the entire globe. Change in the latter follows change in the former. Using annualized data gets over the problem of the natural seasonal swings that depend upon the distribution of land and sea between the hemispheres.
I think this minute focus on the ENSO 3.4 multivariate index and the Pacific ocean is unhealthy. Its obscuring the bigger picture.
Our understanding of ENSO relationships must progress to the point that we link the loss of upper atmosphere cirrus to generalized tropical warming. Then, we will understand why the globe warms and cools as the cloud evaporates or forms.
Monitoring ocean temperature across the Pacific does not get us far in understanding the atmospheric dynamics that drive this phenomena. After some diligent searching I have discovered that the interaction zone between the sun and the Earth includes the upper troposphere.
I know its heresy, and people will reject the notion out of hand, but there you are.
“JimB,
No one said this current La Nina event was as strong as 2007’s. ENSO is anything but neutral. We are currently is a La Nina that followed in the wake of a Moderate-Strong La Nina from Autumn of 2007. It will probably be a weak La Nina, but it is still a La Nina, never-the-less.”
I think you missunderstand my position….I have no problem with the La Nina…but others have claimed that we are NOT in a La Nina event.
JimB
“Change” and “Yes we can”….siunds more familiar! 😉
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
Mike Davis (18:44:58) :
……I can get better predictions from the fortune teller down the road. So I am content to live life by taking one step into the future at a time.
For all those predicting the end of the world: As it says in an old song: Whatever will be will be. The future is not ours to see. Que Sera Sera
Thnaks Mike for explaining the fountain of your logic and where your references come from!
The reason is I wasn’t on line since the last post! You were right though. I haven’t had time recently to go through all the posts, the La Nina (or still lack of one which is more accurate at the moment) caught my eye. I have rectified my ommision and would like to wish you yourself a great 2009.
Here’s hoping for more discussions!
How’s this for a prediction:
2009 will see a net global cooling about 1/2 of 2008 -from which NOAA, NASA, and Hadley will adjust into a net warming of 10% over 2007. In Dec 2009, all three institutions will headline that 2009 was the Warmest Year Since 1998, and the Third Warmest Year since 1850. People from Moscow to Sidney will shiver in disbelief when informed of such news.
Old Construction Worker,
I agree with you, I do not like the government taxing and I think that these green jobs are a joke, but as I understand what Hansen was suggesting was much more simple that the cap and trade system which has been proposed. What I understand Hansen saying is that carbon sources like coal and oil should be taxed at the point of extraction, which would eliminate the need for a complex carbon trading market and carbon accounting bureacracy, but the thing is that you know that the government is going to do something stupid, and I believe the least stupid of the 2 alternatives would be to do just as Hansen says and tax at the source.
If we had a sane and sober government, they would offset these taxes by eliminating payroll and income taxes for the folks making less than $250,000 a year. For the $750 billion dollar bailout, we could have built a National High Speed rail network equal to Europe’s which would greatly decrease our oil damand as many regional air carriers would be made obsolete, and people would have less need to drive their cars. Remember, that if we sipped gas like our European kin America would have no need to import a drop of oil.
Nothing is perfect, but if you believe in Global Warming, which I do not, then taxing at the source is the most effective and simple option. It cuts the money-elite out of the equation and incourages investment in real solutions like nuclear power instead of projects like Windfarms that were designed to enrich the owner at the rate payers expense for an inferior power generator.
@Mary Hinge
To me it looks like Bob Tisdale didn’t ask about the source for your numbers as such, but the source for invoking(-) 0.8 as level for designating La Ninja conditions rather than (-) 0.5 as others have employed.
When using the search-service at the Australian page you linked to, I did not find information on a particular level defining La Ninja.
I assume BT can fill in.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
El Ninos and La Ninas take a long time to play out. Typically it takes 6-8 months after the trend starts developing until the El Nino or La Nina reaches its peak and then it is another 4-6 months before it goes back to fully neutral.
About 80% of the time, the trend starts developing in May, June or July and reaches a peak in November, December or January. It used to be called “the Christmas child”.
This La Nina didn’t start developing until September or October, 2008. It also started slowly, temps were too close to neutral until early December to start thinking about a non-typical timeline La Nina developing. It looked like this winter be neutral for the ENSO.
But the trend has continued strenthening, we are getting the typical La Nina cold waves/nodes which move across the Pacific with the Trade Winds. The colder sub-surface ocean temperatures in the region are well-below normal and rising up to the surface over the past few months.
(hopefully, the last chart in these animations will start working soon.)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
We’ll have to watch to see if the trend continues because the ENSO can “change its mind” sometimes mid-stream. If it does continue strenthening, sea surface temps will drop well into the official La Nina territory (the late December ones are probably already there) and it will not reach its peak until February, March or April.
What happens after that, noone can really know. It could go into neutral territory over the summer and start up an El Nino trend afterward. It could stay negative for an extended period of time although we have not had a 2 or 3 year La Nina in a long, long time.
Water vapour is the most important green house gas followed by methane. The third most important greenhouse gas is CO2, and it does not correlate well with global warming or cooling either; in fact, CO2 in the atmosphere trails warming which is clear natural evidence for its well-studied inverse solubility in water: CO2 dissolves in cold water and bubbles out of warm water. The equilibrium in seawater is very high, making seawater a great ‘sink’; CO2 is 34 times more soluble in water than air is soluble in water.
Correlation is not causation to be sure. The causation has been studied, however, and while the radiation from the sun varies only in the fourth decimal place, the magnetism is awesome. As I understand it, the hypothesis of the Danish National Space Center goes as follows:
Quiet sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds and more snow → more albedo effect (more heat reflected) → colder climate
Active sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate
That is how the bulk of climate change might work, coupled with (modulated by) sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean. When the waves are closely spaced, the planets warm; when the waves are spaced farther apart, the planets cool.
Using a box of air in a Copenhagen lab, physicists traced the growth of clusters of molecules of the kind that build cloud condensation nuclei. These are specks of sulphuric acid on which cloud droplets form. High-energy particles driven through the laboratory ceiling by exploded stars far away in the Galaxy – the cosmic rays – liberate electrons in the air, which help the molecular clusters to form much faster than climate scientists have modeled in the atmosphere. That may explain the link between cosmic rays, cloudiness and climate change.
The ultimate cause of the solar magnetic cycle may be cyclicity in the Sun-Jupiter centre of gravity. We await more on that. In addition, although the post 60s warming period is over, it has allowed the principal green house gas, water vapour, to kick in with humidity, clouds, rain and snow depending on where you live to provide the negative feedback that scientists use to explain the existence of complex life on Earth for 550 million years. The planet heats and cools naturally and our gasses are the thermostat. Check the web site of the Danish National Space Center.
Keeping in mind that windmills are hazardous to birds, be wary of the unintended consequences of believing the all-knowing environmental lobby groups.
I can point to about 10 people who have been bringing attention to this developing La Nina for well over a month IN THIS FORUM.
You’re behind the curve Anthony.
Anyway, I think it was Bill Illis who mentioned earlier that during El Ninos, the media and Climate Establishment always blamed AGW. But now that we have colder conditions, the ENSO are suddenly being recognised by them as the cause. Right you are Bill Illis!
The extreme weather is what we get from cooling not warming. Think about it; the evidence is there. A summer beach is wide and fine and a winter beach is steep and coarse. What is the reason for that? The higher energy waves of winter storms carry off the fine sand to build offshore bars. The gentler summer waves on average, return the fine sand to the beach.
On the climate scale, colder is more vigourous because the differentials between north and south are are steeper. I mean that more cold northern air, mixes with warm southern air with more vigour and the result is nasty tornados. During the Pleistocene the climatic belts were compressed toward the equator and one consequence was high winds blowing for long periods in lower latitudes. The evidence is in the Sief dunes of the Sahara that formed then and are completely out of equilibrium with todays climate. Seif dunes are hundreds of Km long and some are well over 100 metres high. Don’t believe in Global Warming? Look for them on Google Earth. Be careful what you wish for.