Click for larger image
Source: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
h/t Arthur Glass
About a month ago I posted: La Nina is back…and was criticized by a few folks. Well compare the above to the image from that post below:
Click for larger image
I didn’t follow the criticism, but the NOAA report below should vindicate
the claim that LaNina has been back for at least a month, if “back” means
LaNina conditions existing, as opposed to certain criteria required to define an “episode”, three months of anomaly of at least -5, if memory serves.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.
Thank you.
I have been mulling over the “driver” question. It has occurred to me that I have not considered an enormous source of heat. Is the earth itself not a magma filled balloon? The earth’s crust is not very thick ( relatively speaking) compared to the huge volume of molten rock and metals within. It is also a huge dynamo ( magnetic field and liquid metal core). The dynamo would also be affected by the suns magnetic field which varies as well. We clearly do not have all the pieces of this puzzle. Purely speculation on my part, but one that I find interesting. Comments? Keep the abuse to a minimum, please !! :^)
“the_Butcher (10:35:11) :
What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.”
try this link:
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
AllenM,
Those are not sunspots and it doesn’t look like they will develop into Sun Spots either. Spaceweather.com is reporting 0 Sun Spots.
I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years.
Looks like the Central American mountain jet is going nicely also, setting up for a cool Caribbean this summer.
the_Butcher (10:35:11) :
“What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.”
It’s El Nino and La Nina. In spanish El Nino means little boy and La Nina means little girl. When the tropical pacific ocean is dominated by warm surface temperatures it is known as El Nino and when the tropical pacific ocean is dominated cold surface temperatures it is known as La Nina. The difference the two have on our climate and weather patterns are complex. I don’t usually recommend Wiki’s where climate is concerned but try this link for a primer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation
The discussion of the cooling PDO “looking” like La Nina was the original issue I think Anthony. I think you are right to call it La Nina.
Last year I too was sun-centric in my thoughts. I have read and re-read all of Leif Svalgaard’s presentations. If posters here want to keep pushing the notion that it is a quiet sun that creates the cooling then so be it. Just don’t close your mind to the exploration of our own earth’s effects. They are far more important in climate “change” than many on BOTH sides of the debate understand.
Please find the following quote from the article “Four Years After Tsunami, Coral Reefs Recovering” at the link
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081227225250.htm
“On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery,” said Dr, Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Indonesia Marine Program. “Our scientific monitoring is showing rapid growth of young corals in areas where the tsunami caused damage, and also the return of new generations of corals in areas previously damaged by destructive fishing. These findings provide new insights into coral recovery processes that can help us manage coral reefs in the face of climate change.”
I thought the 1 C degree rise in world temperatures were already destroying all the coral reefs in the world. How could there be such a rapid recovery during a time when the corals should be dying from climate change?
Go Figure.
Jeff Id (11:23:03) :
“I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years”.
Jeff,
Let Tamino boil in his own fat.
He can not be helped and it does not help anyone to provide him with an extended platform via WUWT. It’s simply too frustrating.
Just for the record the ENSO is still neutral, the threshold for La Niña conditions is a NINO3 SST index of -0.8. Currently this is -0.68 so still a way to go yet. As I mentioned in the autumn a return to a La Niña of the strength of last year was extremely small, and that is still true. Compare the Pacific chart of this time last year to the maps above. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.1.3.2008.gif
The standard deviation of the Nino indices is very high at this time of year. The current anomalies are only around 0.5 standard deviations away from average. That falls a long way short of La Nina.
All one had to do in the Midwest was look at the thermometer and the snowplow bill to know something is going on. After the harshest winter in recent memory for 2007-08, the 2008-09 version is even worse.
It’s snowing again right now, in fact.
Yay.
“Bill Marsh (11:21:10) :
AllenM,
Those are not sunspots and it doesn’t look like they will develop into Sun Spots either. Spaceweather.com is reporting 0 Sun Spots.”
True, this is big nothing, it will fade away, I’m sure.
I personally believe El Nino and La Nina both are results of under sea volcanic activity. Decreased activity – La Nina, increased activity – El Nino. Just my two cents. Neither would have anything to do with sunspot activity. Also, recently it has been brought up that increased undersea volcanic activity in the North pole has been a contributing factor in decreased sea ice. With a leveling off of activity, the Ice returns.
In my opinion, if you remember Einstein’s quote ” Look for the obvious answers first, because the universe has order”.
I just looked at the 01/01/16:00 SOHO sun, and apart from spotless, the 3 or 4 longtime dead pixels seem to be gone, too. Are they fixed, or have they been
hansenizedprocessed out?hengav,
Personally, I believe everyone has a little corner of the map, and sees the whole picture through the little bit they’ve got ahold of. The CO2 crowd only sees greenhouse gas effects. The solar researchers only see solar minimums and maxiums and Milankovic cycles. The ocean cycle group only sees those, etc. etc. The astrophysicist sees the effects of coronal holes, magnetic flux, solar wind, and cosmic rays.
I believe that the real truth is a blend of all these things – they ALL have parts to play in the roller coaster ride that is the Earth’s climate, to varying degrees. It might actually be the truth that greenhouse gas emissions have moderated what would otherwise have been a cooling trend, a trend that has now caught up to, and overtaken those moderating effects. I am no scientist – this is a guess I’ve arrived at by reading all the available materials to the best of my abilities (I have to admit I start to glaze over when maths get involved). I find the correlations between sunspot activity, coronal ejections, and climate reactions to those events compelling.
In my opinion, this blog represents a fantastic resource for the inquiring mind that simply wants to know the truth, and has no particular stake in wherever the truth may lie. I also believe that everyone who reads this blog should contribute money to Anthony’s quest to audit all of the US climate stations. Good science can only be done with good data.
Happy New Year, everyone. Stay warm. 🙂
I think that’s a good point hengav,
Earth’s climate is a complex chaotic system. I would say there is certainly enough internal variability in our climate system to account for the observed temperature change without the need for external forcing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/4061092/Greenhouse-gases-could-have-caused-an-ice-age-claim-scientists.html
Is this a joke? Or are they serious? I couldn’t make this up if I tried.
David Ball (10:38:45) :
I have been mulling over the “driver” question. It has occurred to me that I have not considered an enormous source of heat. Is the earth itself not a magma filled balloon? The earth’s crust is not very thick ( relatively speaking) compared to the huge volume of molten rock and metals within. It is also a huge dynamo ( magnetic field and liquid metal core). The dynamo would also be affected by the suns magnetic field which varies as well. …
The crust seems to be an efficient insulator, otherwise we wouldn’t have permafrost conditions, and frostline depths to consider in building foundations. The crust’s thinness after billions of years cooling is further evidence. The sun’s magnetic field, etc. affect the shape of the earth’s field, but I don’t see it being strong enough to affect the earth’s core. The number-cruncher folks on the site could help with that.
RE: Phil (13:06:46)
The key statement in the article is “It happened naturally in the past, but the wrong use of technology could make it happen again.”
See it? Whether it gets hotter, colder, or the whole world and everything on it turns a nice pleasing shade of purple is irrelevant to these people: Its their SOLUTION that they are desperately trying to sell. This “solution” is their goal – not control of an entire planets’ climate, which is (presently) a laughable endeavor.
The “solution”? The destruction of the entire Western economy and way of life.
hengav, I think you will find ocean circulation mitigating changes in global temps created by the sun
“On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery,” said Dr, Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Indonesia Marine Program. “
“For all that, nature is never spent:
There lives the dearest freshness, deep down things….”
–G.M. Hopkins
Ou of concern for easily offended spirits, I’ve left out the theological truth Hopkins draws from this resilience of nature
Jeff, you should place a prominent banner on your site – Banned by Tamino. It would be a bit like the posters for salacious movies in the early part of the last century: Banned in New York, or wherever it was. Yes folks, this is the real thing, this is hot stuff, they got so excited they banned it.
Wear it with pride!