Looking more like La Nina every day

Click for larger image

Source:  http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

h/t Arthur Glass

About a month ago I posted: La Nina is back…and was criticized by a few folks. Well compare the above to the image from that post below:

Click for larger image

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Patrick Henry

Now the alarmists have another excuse for the ongoing cold in 2009.

Bill Illis
Frank. Lansner

Very true 🙂
Here the full global SST:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.31.2008.gif
I too proclaimed La Nina and this was due to the SOI index:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/httpdata_r/images/climate/wz_soi_weekly.png
The normal “rule” is that SOI index above 6 for 8 weeks in a row gives La Nina. Now we have had SOI > 6 in 18 weeks..!
So La Nina, better late than never.
According to NOAA, the La Nina will remain more than half of 2009.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/glbSSTSea.gif
However, maybe not the strongest La Nina seen. But the world is now colder than when previous La Nina started.
Remember When the cold year 2008 was explained with La nina?
The thing is, during the whole warming period 1977-1998 there was many El Ninos. If the cooling we see now is caused by La Ninas, then the warmth 1977-1998 was caused by El Ninos, and not CO2/AGW.
But as many in this site is aware, the PDO seems to control ENSO tendensies. And as many also knows, the AMO+PDO index is following solar activity…

Arthur Glass

Anthony, you have made my New Year’s day!

JimB

but….but…bu….
It CAN’T be a La Nina…it just CAN’T…
😉
Jimb

J Berry

What does this predict for the midwest growing season? I am a midwest farmer and have been reading your articles about climate and weather for a few months now. Good stuff.

kim

Oh, Mary.
=====

How is El Nino/La Nina related to sunspots and tsi? Is there a direct correlation or an indirect correlation? No correlation at all?
Everything on earth is related to our Sun; I do know that. Earth would not exist without our Sun. But, are there graphs or studies that show a relationship between sunspots and the El Nino/La Nina cycles? How about PDO and AMO?
So many questions, so little time!

John Egan

Carole King once sang,
“Snow is cold, rain is wet.”
However, I think that she was in climate denial.
No matter what you say, you will be lambasted.
I’m just grateful I found your website.
Happy New Year!

AllenM

OT, but did someone over at NASA take exception with your sunspot post. Check out the SOHO sunspot picture. I guess we can’t say Jan 1 09 is spotless.

Tom Gall

I could not get the world map at the Noaa site to go large.
Looks like its behind last year at this time. South America still has warm water off its western coast. Might be a little late to give the Green Nazis any bad luck.
It would have been nice to see a real cold inauguration just as they take the reins of power.
I like to look at temps in Siberia to project ours. Dec up there had lows that were 15 to 30 degrees lower than average. So far Jan is about 10 degrees higher than normal.
Long term cooling means that naturnal gas stocks will a buy at some point. Looks like it would be this winter though.

Tom Gall

The last sentence should say “Looks like, not this year”,
What I like about the NOAA map is they decided to cut off the top part of the the globe
Can’t see the sea ice, or water temps up there. Is this normal?

Slicer

Hey Anthony!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24861265-601,00.html
Snowed in Tasmania! abit in the mountains but none the less.

It is most likely La Nina.

Steven Hill

Looks like you were exactly correct. CO2 is causing it.

Michael Ronayne

Anthony,
What is the historic data on back-to-back La Nina cycles? La Nina conditions in January and February 2008 triggered a world food cries with the failure of the Asian rice crop because of intense cold. The mainstream media in the “free world” were vary careful not to report that freezing conditions caused the price of rice to increase by several hundred percent. The only accurate reporting was from the Chinese and Vietnamese Communist Party controlled newspapers. I made a post to your BLOG on this subject in March 2008:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/21/snow-and-storms-at-easter-in-europe-and-usa/
Here is some background information on the events in early 2008.
2008 Chinese winter storms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_winter_storms
China’s War on Snow Havoc
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/index.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/tn.htm
Review snow havoc in China early 2008
http://english.people.com.cn/96073/96078/6558811.html
Now try and find the letters “C O L D” in this New York Times report!
The World Food Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/opinion/10thu1.html
If a full La Nina event develops with associated crop failures, as occurred early in 2008, we need to start tracking world food prices and reporting on it.
Mike

Happy New Year to All. Here are a few graphs to supplement the post.
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly from Jan 3 1990 to Dec 24, 2008:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2qvs5e0.jpg
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly from Jan 1 2007 to Dec 24, 2008:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2ibfgwn.jpg
As you can see, we’re well into La Nina SST anomalies, but there needs to be five consecutive seasons (where a season = 3-month mean) with the SSTs below 0.5 deg C for the CPC to consider it a full-fledged La Nina in its ONI Index.
Here are a few more graphs you don’t see every day.
Note the reaction to the 1940s multiyear El Nino in the Global Nighttime Marine Air Temperature (NMAT).
http://i39.tinypic.com/2igd1mr.jpg
And in the Northern Hemisphere NMAT:
http://i44.tinypic.com/rvd4pu.jpg
Those curves don’t resemble the IPCC’s version:
http://i39.tinypic.com/10mmpeb.jpg
It’s a different data set, but still…
I covered the Met Office Historical Marine Air Temperature, version MOHMAT4.3 in a recent post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/nighttime-marine-air-temperature.html
Regards

Ed Scott

Today’s AGW Looney Tunes.
————————————————————-
Air New Zealand Flies on Engine With Jatropha Biofuel Blend
http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/air-new-zealand-flies-on-engine-with-jatropha-biofuel-blend/
“Using jatropha-based fuel still emits carbon dioxide, but the gas is typically recycled in the growing of the feedstock, so there is ostensibly no additional CO2 added to the atmosphere.”
“A growing body of research is linking the production and consumption of biofuels to increased competition for land, water and agricultural commodities. Growing crops for energy in addition to food and feed requires the cultivation of additional land.”
“There is no way around the effect unless we un-make the global economy.”
————————————————————-
The un-making of the economy of the evil Americans is the UN’s goal.

Johnnyb

Mr. Glass,
When the original posting about the up coming La Nina was made, the threashold for an official La Nina had yet to be breached as the current averages at that time had yet to meet the -0.5 degree mark. Now they have exceeded -0.5 degrees but we are still not officially in La Nina because the 3 month moving average for La Nina has to be below -0.5 degrees for 3 consecutive overlapping 3 month periods. I believe that we will get there, but we are not there yet.

tallbloke

Hey there Lady La Nina
Where you been since we last seen ya?
Those azure blue robes you wear
Flowing free across the sea
Welcome in the cooler year.
Saw your brother Big Jack Frost
With giant strides the ocean crossed
His whitened fingers freeze the pane
His sparkling coat flung far and wide
Bringing snow and ice again.
Our pale sun still gently sleeps
Dreaming secrets that he keeps
A puzzle deep to tease the mind
The cyclic cause, the sure effect
The answer must be well designed!

Josh

Every day the bricks in the wall of AGW theory crumble a little more.

Ed Scott

Dr. (not in the medical sense) Roy Spencer proposes an eye examine for AGW alarmists. There is no encroachment on the optometrist’s profession, as this test can be performed at home with no danger to one’s health.
——————————————————-
50 Years of CO2: Time for a Vision Test
January 1st, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/01/50-years-of-co2-time-for-a-vision-test/
Well, 50 years of that kind of pollution is really taking its toll. So, without further ado, here’s what 50 years of increasing levels of CO2 looks like on the Big Island:
———————————————————–
Prosperous NEW YEAR, everyone! Mahalo and Aloha.

Vincent Guerrini Jr

and most recent today = 100% ceratin and strengthening rapidly
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Dan Lee

So the next phase of the AGW discussion will build on the distorted illogic we’re already seeing hints of. My favorite is:
“La Nina is hiding the heat!” To which we can only reply, “Where?” If heat is there it would be warm, which is the definition of “heat”, right? Its either there or its not, you can’t hide heat.
That claim is like saying that darkness is hiding the light, which is really there somewhere, you just can’t see it because its dark.
The next year or so should be fun.

JP

Anthony,
I for one thought that your observation was not out of line. With the PDO now in a negative mode it is not that unusual for ENSO to go La Nina, to Neutral, and then back La Nina again. I would suspect that ENSO will remain in La Nina mode for at least the remainder of winter before it transitions back to neutral and perhaps goes into El Nino mode early in 2010. IMHO, the next El Nino will be short and weak, followed by another moderate La Nina for 2011.
For those who have the tools and the time, it would be interesting see what climate analogs shows for continued La Ninaesque Pacific and neutral AMO. (Drought and cold winters for the Pacific zones, increases in severe spring and summer convection for the Plains, increases in Gulf of Mexico TCs, cold and snowy Winters for the eastern 1/3rd?). Interesting times for those interested in long range forecasting.

Glenn

I didn’t follow the criticism, but the NOAA report below should vindicate
the claim that LaNina has been back for at least a month, if “back” means
LaNina conditions existing, as opposed to certain criteria required to define an “episode”, three months of anomaly of at least -5, if memory serves.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

the_Butcher

What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.
Thank you.

David Ball

I have been mulling over the “driver” question. It has occurred to me that I have not considered an enormous source of heat. Is the earth itself not a magma filled balloon? The earth’s crust is not very thick ( relatively speaking) compared to the huge volume of molten rock and metals within. It is also a huge dynamo ( magnetic field and liquid metal core). The dynamo would also be affected by the suns magnetic field which varies as well. We clearly do not have all the pieces of this puzzle. Purely speculation on my part, but one that I find interesting. Comments? Keep the abuse to a minimum, please !! :^)

tallbloke

“the_Butcher (10:35:11) :
What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.”
try this link:
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/

Bill Marsh

AllenM,
Those are not sunspots and it doesn’t look like they will develop into Sun Spots either. Spaceweather.com is reporting 0 Sun Spots.

I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years.

AnonyMoose

Looks like the Central American mountain jet is going nicely also, setting up for a cool Caribbean this summer.

MartinGAtkins

the_Butcher (10:35:11) :
“What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.”
It’s El Nino and La Nina. In spanish El Nino means little boy and La Nina means little girl. When the tropical pacific ocean is dominated by warm surface temperatures it is known as El Nino and when the tropical pacific ocean is dominated cold surface temperatures it is known as La Nina. The difference the two have on our climate and weather patterns are complex. I don’t usually recommend Wiki’s where climate is concerned but try this link for a primer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation

hengav

The discussion of the cooling PDO “looking” like La Nina was the original issue I think Anthony. I think you are right to call it La Nina.
Last year I too was sun-centric in my thoughts. I have read and re-read all of Leif Svalgaard’s presentations. If posters here want to keep pushing the notion that it is a quiet sun that creates the cooling then so be it. Just don’t close your mind to the exploration of our own earth’s effects. They are far more important in climate “change” than many on BOTH sides of the debate understand.

Edward

Please find the following quote from the article “Four Years After Tsunami, Coral Reefs Recovering” at the link
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081227225250.htm
“On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery,” said Dr, Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Indonesia Marine Program. “Our scientific monitoring is showing rapid growth of young corals in areas where the tsunami caused damage, and also the return of new generations of corals in areas previously damaged by destructive fishing. These findings provide new insights into coral recovery processes that can help us manage coral reefs in the face of climate change.”
I thought the 1 C degree rise in world temperatures were already destroying all the coral reefs in the world. How could there be such a rapid recovery during a time when the corals should be dying from climate change?
Go Figure.

Ron de Haan

Jeff Id (11:23:03) :
“I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years”.
Jeff,
Let Tamino boil in his own fat.
He can not be helped and it does not help anyone to provide him with an extended platform via WUWT. It’s simply too frustrating.

Mary Hinge

Just for the record the ENSO is still neutral, the threshold for La Niña conditions is a NINO3 SST index of -0.8. Currently this is -0.68 so still a way to go yet. As I mentioned in the autumn a return to a La Niña of the strength of last year was extremely small, and that is still true. Compare the Pacific chart of this time last year to the maps above. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.1.3.2008.gif

david

The standard deviation of the Nino indices is very high at this time of year. The current anomalies are only around 0.5 standard deviations away from average. That falls a long way short of La Nina.

The Diatribe Guy

All one had to do in the Midwest was look at the thermometer and the snowplow bill to know something is going on. After the harshest winter in recent memory for 2007-08, the 2008-09 version is even worse.
It’s snowing again right now, in fact.
Yay.

dresi4

“Bill Marsh (11:21:10) :
AllenM,
Those are not sunspots and it doesn’t look like they will develop into Sun Spots either. Spaceweather.com is reporting 0 Sun Spots.”
True, this is big nothing, it will fade away, I’m sure.

Vinny

I personally believe El Nino and La Nina both are results of under sea volcanic activity. Decreased activity – La Nina, increased activity – El Nino. Just my two cents. Neither would have anything to do with sunspot activity. Also, recently it has been brought up that increased undersea volcanic activity in the North pole has been a contributing factor in decreased sea ice. With a leveling off of activity, the Ice returns.
In my opinion, if you remember Einstein’s quote ” Look for the obvious answers first, because the universe has order”.

Mike McMillan

I just looked at the 01/01/16:00 SOHO sun, and apart from spotless, the 3 or 4 longtime dead pixels seem to be gone, too. Are they fixed, or have they been hansenized processed out?

hengav,
Personally, I believe everyone has a little corner of the map, and sees the whole picture through the little bit they’ve got ahold of. The CO2 crowd only sees greenhouse gas effects. The solar researchers only see solar minimums and maxiums and Milankovic cycles. The ocean cycle group only sees those, etc. etc. The astrophysicist sees the effects of coronal holes, magnetic flux, solar wind, and cosmic rays.
I believe that the real truth is a blend of all these things – they ALL have parts to play in the roller coaster ride that is the Earth’s climate, to varying degrees. It might actually be the truth that greenhouse gas emissions have moderated what would otherwise have been a cooling trend, a trend that has now caught up to, and overtaken those moderating effects. I am no scientist – this is a guess I’ve arrived at by reading all the available materials to the best of my abilities (I have to admit I start to glaze over when maths get involved). I find the correlations between sunspot activity, coronal ejections, and climate reactions to those events compelling.
In my opinion, this blog represents a fantastic resource for the inquiring mind that simply wants to know the truth, and has no particular stake in wherever the truth may lie. I also believe that everyone who reads this blog should contribute money to Anthony’s quest to audit all of the US climate stations. Good science can only be done with good data.
Happy New Year, everyone. Stay warm. 🙂

Steve

I think that’s a good point hengav,
Earth’s climate is a complex chaotic system. I would say there is certainly enough internal variability in our climate system to account for the observed temperature change without the need for external forcing.

Phil
Mike McMillan

David Ball (10:38:45) :
I have been mulling over the “driver” question. It has occurred to me that I have not considered an enormous source of heat. Is the earth itself not a magma filled balloon? The earth’s crust is not very thick ( relatively speaking) compared to the huge volume of molten rock and metals within. It is also a huge dynamo ( magnetic field and liquid metal core). The dynamo would also be affected by the suns magnetic field which varies as well. …
The crust seems to be an efficient insulator, otherwise we wouldn’t have permafrost conditions, and frostline depths to consider in building foundations. The crust’s thinness after billions of years cooling is further evidence. The sun’s magnetic field, etc. affect the shape of the earth’s field, but I don’t see it being strong enough to affect the earth’s core. The number-cruncher folks on the site could help with that.

RE: Phil (13:06:46)
The key statement in the article is “It happened naturally in the past, but the wrong use of technology could make it happen again.”
See it? Whether it gets hotter, colder, or the whole world and everything on it turns a nice pleasing shade of purple is irrelevant to these people: Its their SOLUTION that they are desperately trying to sell. This “solution” is their goal – not control of an entire planets’ climate, which is (presently) a laughable endeavor.
The “solution”? The destruction of the entire Western economy and way of life.

Mike C

hengav, I think you will find ocean circulation mitigating changes in global temps created by the sun

Arthur Glass

“On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery,” said Dr, Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Indonesia Marine Program. “
“For all that, nature is never spent:
There lives the dearest freshness, deep down things….”
–G.M. Hopkins
Ou of concern for easily offended spirits, I’ve left out the theological truth Hopkins draws from this resilience of nature

fred

Jeff, you should place a prominent banner on your site – Banned by Tamino. It would be a bit like the posters for salacious movies in the early part of the last century: Banned in New York, or wherever it was. Yes folks, this is the real thing, this is hot stuff, they got so excited they banned it.
Wear it with pride!