Click for larger image
Source: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
h/t Arthur Glass
About a month ago I posted: La Nina is back…and was criticized by a few folks. Well compare the above to the image from that post below:
Click for larger image
Now the alarmists have another excuse for the ongoing cold in 2009.
The Full_Global link of the image is at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.31.2008.gif
Very true 🙂
Here the full global SST:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.31.2008.gif
I too proclaimed La Nina and this was due to the SOI index:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/httpdata_r/images/climate/wz_soi_weekly.png
The normal “rule” is that SOI index above 6 for 8 weeks in a row gives La Nina. Now we have had SOI > 6 in 18 weeks..!
So La Nina, better late than never.
According to NOAA, the La Nina will remain more than half of 2009.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/glbSSTSea.gif
However, maybe not the strongest La Nina seen. But the world is now colder than when previous La Nina started.
Remember When the cold year 2008 was explained with La nina?
The thing is, during the whole warming period 1977-1998 there was many El Ninos. If the cooling we see now is caused by La Ninas, then the warmth 1977-1998 was caused by El Ninos, and not CO2/AGW.
But as many in this site is aware, the PDO seems to control ENSO tendensies. And as many also knows, the AMO+PDO index is following solar activity…
Anthony, you have made my New Year’s day!
but….but…bu….
It CAN’T be a La Nina…it just CAN’T…
😉
Jimb
What does this predict for the midwest growing season? I am a midwest farmer and have been reading your articles about climate and weather for a few months now. Good stuff.
Oh, Mary.
=====
How is El Nino/La Nina related to sunspots and tsi? Is there a direct correlation or an indirect correlation? No correlation at all?
Everything on earth is related to our Sun; I do know that. Earth would not exist without our Sun. But, are there graphs or studies that show a relationship between sunspots and the El Nino/La Nina cycles? How about PDO and AMO?
So many questions, so little time!
Carole King once sang,
“Snow is cold, rain is wet.”
However, I think that she was in climate denial.
No matter what you say, you will be lambasted.
I’m just grateful I found your website.
Happy New Year!
OT, but did someone over at NASA take exception with your sunspot post. Check out the SOHO sunspot picture. I guess we can’t say Jan 1 09 is spotless.
I could not get the world map at the Noaa site to go large.
Looks like its behind last year at this time. South America still has warm water off its western coast. Might be a little late to give the Green Nazis any bad luck.
It would have been nice to see a real cold inauguration just as they take the reins of power.
I like to look at temps in Siberia to project ours. Dec up there had lows that were 15 to 30 degrees lower than average. So far Jan is about 10 degrees higher than normal.
Long term cooling means that naturnal gas stocks will a buy at some point. Looks like it would be this winter though.
The last sentence should say “Looks like, not this year”,
What I like about the NOAA map is they decided to cut off the top part of the the globe
Can’t see the sea ice, or water temps up there. Is this normal?
Hey Anthony!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24861265-601,00.html
Snowed in Tasmania! abit in the mountains but none the less.
It is most likely La Nina.
Looks like you were exactly correct. CO2 is causing it.
Anthony,
What is the historic data on back-to-back La Nina cycles? La Nina conditions in January and February 2008 triggered a world food cries with the failure of the Asian rice crop because of intense cold. The mainstream media in the “free world” were vary careful not to report that freezing conditions caused the price of rice to increase by several hundred percent. The only accurate reporting was from the Chinese and Vietnamese Communist Party controlled newspapers. I made a post to your BLOG on this subject in March 2008:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/21/snow-and-storms-at-easter-in-europe-and-usa/
Here is some background information on the events in early 2008.
2008 Chinese winter storms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_winter_storms
China’s War on Snow Havoc
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/index.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/tn.htm
Review snow havoc in China early 2008
http://english.people.com.cn/96073/96078/6558811.html
Now try and find the letters “C O L D” in this New York Times report!
The World Food Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/opinion/10thu1.html
If a full La Nina event develops with associated crop failures, as occurred early in 2008, we need to start tracking world food prices and reporting on it.
Mike
Happy New Year to All. Here are a few graphs to supplement the post.
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly from Jan 3 1990 to Dec 24, 2008:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2qvs5e0.jpg
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly from Jan 1 2007 to Dec 24, 2008:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2ibfgwn.jpg
As you can see, we’re well into La Nina SST anomalies, but there needs to be five consecutive seasons (where a season = 3-month mean) with the SSTs below 0.5 deg C for the CPC to consider it a full-fledged La Nina in its ONI Index.
Here are a few more graphs you don’t see every day.
Note the reaction to the 1940s multiyear El Nino in the Global Nighttime Marine Air Temperature (NMAT).
http://i39.tinypic.com/2igd1mr.jpg
And in the Northern Hemisphere NMAT:
http://i44.tinypic.com/rvd4pu.jpg
Those curves don’t resemble the IPCC’s version:
http://i39.tinypic.com/10mmpeb.jpg
It’s a different data set, but still…
I covered the Met Office Historical Marine Air Temperature, version MOHMAT4.3 in a recent post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/nighttime-marine-air-temperature.html
Regards
Today’s AGW Looney Tunes.
————————————————————-
Air New Zealand Flies on Engine With Jatropha Biofuel Blend
http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/air-new-zealand-flies-on-engine-with-jatropha-biofuel-blend/
“Using jatropha-based fuel still emits carbon dioxide, but the gas is typically recycled in the growing of the feedstock, so there is ostensibly no additional CO2 added to the atmosphere.”
“A growing body of research is linking the production and consumption of biofuels to increased competition for land, water and agricultural commodities. Growing crops for energy in addition to food and feed requires the cultivation of additional land.”
“There is no way around the effect unless we un-make the global economy.”
————————————————————-
The un-making of the economy of the evil Americans is the UN’s goal.
Mr. Glass,
When the original posting about the up coming La Nina was made, the threashold for an official La Nina had yet to be breached as the current averages at that time had yet to meet the -0.5 degree mark. Now they have exceeded -0.5 degrees but we are still not officially in La Nina because the 3 month moving average for La Nina has to be below -0.5 degrees for 3 consecutive overlapping 3 month periods. I believe that we will get there, but we are not there yet.
Hey there Lady La Nina
Where you been since we last seen ya?
Those azure blue robes you wear
Flowing free across the sea
Welcome in the cooler year.
Saw your brother Big Jack Frost
With giant strides the ocean crossed
His whitened fingers freeze the pane
His sparkling coat flung far and wide
Bringing snow and ice again.
Our pale sun still gently sleeps
Dreaming secrets that he keeps
A puzzle deep to tease the mind
The cyclic cause, the sure effect
The answer must be well designed!
Every day the bricks in the wall of AGW theory crumble a little more.
Dr. (not in the medical sense) Roy Spencer proposes an eye examine for AGW alarmists. There is no encroachment on the optometrist’s profession, as this test can be performed at home with no danger to one’s health.
——————————————————-
50 Years of CO2: Time for a Vision Test
January 1st, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/01/50-years-of-co2-time-for-a-vision-test/
Well, 50 years of that kind of pollution is really taking its toll. So, without further ado, here’s what 50 years of increasing levels of CO2 looks like on the Big Island:
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Prosperous NEW YEAR, everyone! Mahalo and Aloha.
and most recent today = 100% ceratin and strengthening rapidly
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
So the next phase of the AGW discussion will build on the distorted illogic we’re already seeing hints of. My favorite is:
“La Nina is hiding the heat!” To which we can only reply, “Where?” If heat is there it would be warm, which is the definition of “heat”, right? Its either there or its not, you can’t hide heat.
That claim is like saying that darkness is hiding the light, which is really there somewhere, you just can’t see it because its dark.
The next year or so should be fun.
Anthony,
I for one thought that your observation was not out of line. With the PDO now in a negative mode it is not that unusual for ENSO to go La Nina, to Neutral, and then back La Nina again. I would suspect that ENSO will remain in La Nina mode for at least the remainder of winter before it transitions back to neutral and perhaps goes into El Nino mode early in 2010. IMHO, the next El Nino will be short and weak, followed by another moderate La Nina for 2011.
For those who have the tools and the time, it would be interesting see what climate analogs shows for continued La Ninaesque Pacific and neutral AMO. (Drought and cold winters for the Pacific zones, increases in severe spring and summer convection for the Plains, increases in Gulf of Mexico TCs, cold and snowy Winters for the eastern 1/3rd?). Interesting times for those interested in long range forecasting.