There’s a new essay from Indur Goklany in response to a recent Reuters news article.
Yesterday Reuters reported on a study which claimed that heat is the deadliest form of natural hazard for the United States. However, this result is based on questionable data. The study used results for mortality from extreme heat and cold that can be traced to the National Climatic Data Center. But these data are substantially different from mortality data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) based on the Compressed Mortality File for the United States. The latter uses death certificate records, which provide the cause of each recorded death (based on medical opinion). It is reasonable to believe that regarding the cause of death, particularly for extreme cold and heat, medical opinion as captured in death certificate records is more reliable than determinations made by the meteorologists in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NCDC (even if they have Ph.Ds.).
The essay draws on data from the CDC database of mortality in the USA. See this table:
Combining data from the CDC database for extreme cold and extreme heat, and various arms of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for floods, lightning, hurricanes, and tornadoes, Goklany has shown that extreme cold, rather than heat, is the deadliest form of extreme weather event. In fact, from 1979-2002, extreme cold was responsible for 53 percent of deaths due to all these categories of extreme weather, while extreme heat contributes slightly more than half that (28%). For more, see The Deadliest U.S. Natural Hazard: Extreme Cold.
Of course we all know that the human race has historically done better during warm periods. While we’ve seen a sloght warming in the last century, we’ve also seen a worldwide improvement in the human condition.
Add lost productivity (I’m sitting home instead of teaching students), increased manufacturing costs, huge increases in Dept of Transportation costs, electrical company repair costs, increased overhead costs compared to income with every business that stays open, lost income in nearly every sector from gas stations to food stores. The poor condition of our infrastructure adds to the cost of cold by its fragile nature under cold conditions. The cost of cold overwhelms anything else.
Can someone explain how the ice has stalled? I am like Steven Berry, I don’t understand this.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Thanks Anthony (again)
I had actually read that story. I knew it was all lies from the get-go.
How did I know? It was printed in ink.
Are all fatal cold weather related road traffic accidents logged as ‘cold related deaths’? Probably not.
I like Bjorn Lombergs approach (Even though he still talks about ‘combatting global warming’ in his ‘cool it’ presentation). http://www.reason.tv/video/show/621.html
Some warming would be very welcome right about now on a normally temperate part of Vancouver Island. High temperature Minus five Celsius, currently snowing.
Notice the meeting of moisture-heavy warm tropical fronts colliding with extremely cold (and therefore dryer) arctic fronts that have dropped into and are stalling over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Just like in Hurricane season. Colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere set us up for more extreme events when they collide with the relatively stable warmer temperatures coming from the Equator and Southern Hemisphere. It seems that the following is a theory with some strength: Cold temperatures lead to stronger events than warm temperatures do in the Northern Hemisphere.
Once again, a statement from an AGW acolyte turns out to be false. Their perfect record in this regard is beginning to seem like some kind of very extreme event itself, and perhaps needs to be studied.
As kids, we used to say, “Follow them, see what they eat.” Well, from the TAR itself, concerning Australia and New Zealand:
“12.8.1…. However, it must be said that potential gains [benefits of Global Warming] have not been well documented, in part because of lack of stakeholder concern in such cases and consequent lack of special funding.”
The TAR had its own search engine, which turned up no results concerning the “benefits of GW ” in its html version. I found the above TAR note via Google.
Stated in the null hypothesis mode: Greater temperature differences between the margin of cold and warm fronts in the Northern Hemisphere over North America does not result in increased extreme weather events. Any meteorological student out there looking for a dissertation?
Steven Hill (07:03:43) : “Can someone explain how the ice has stalled? I am like Steven Berry, I don’t understand this.”
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Nope. NOBODY can explain it. There are LOTS of things about climate, ice caps, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions weather, etc. that are NOT currently understood by science. That’s why taking accurate data is SO important. Hypothethes that are testable are good. Drawing premature conclusions and stating absolutes is unwarranted.
“Those figures don’t include influenza, that kills”… etc.
I agree – warmer means good times, major cooling means bad times, end of civilizations and revolutions among other things and so forth – but – is inluenza the THE killer or is it “just a contributing factor”?
to: Steven Hill (07:03:43) :
Can someone explain how the ice has stalled? I am like Steven Berry, I don’t understand this.
…………
Just a lame-man here…but Nome, AK temps have been way above average:
12/12 + 11
12/13 +15
12/14 +17
12/15 +8
12/16 +10
12/17 +17
12/18 +24
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ak/nome/99762/forecast-climo.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&metric=0
If you look back at the temps in Nov. you csn see why the ie had been doing well North of the Berhing Straights in nov:
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ak/nome/99762/forecast-climo.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&metric=0&mnYr=11/1/2008
If the envirocrits have their way and electricity becomes a luxury for people without trust funds, lots of people will die facing heat waves without air conditioning. The death toll in France a few years was so high because air conditioning was not available to many old people there.
Actually, Steven and Phil the Arctic stall can be studied and fairly reasonable explanations given. The Arctic is actually a combination of different seas each with its own ocean current source. If one studies the different areas and the growth/melt of ice, you can gain quite a bit of understanding about how ice behaves up there. Go to http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ , scroll down to the simple map, and click on the different colored areas surrounding the pole. You will see different graphs for ice melt and growth. Then study Arctic land temperatures at http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm , understanding that these temperature recordings will likely include artifacts of the measuring device. You can then study jet stream and wind patterns at http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html to gain an understanding of how wind can affect ice movement, melt, and growth. As soon as I can, I will get a web site to you of small ocean currents up there to add to your study. By combining these areas of information, you will see that the stall is not throughout the Arctic but in very limited areas and is reasonably explained.
Add this to your study
http://www.aquatic.uoguelph.ca/oceans/ArticOceanWeb/Currents/frontpagecur.htm
Death Certificates don’t say “heat wave” or “cold snap” on them, so I assume the CDC has some way to seperate out body temp. related deaths during “non-extreme” ambient temp. from those during “extreme” ambient temps., giving an excess related to “extremes” – as reported in the Table’s figures?
I guess what bothers me is that thanks to the AGW fiasco I now know all too painfully that I have to worry about such details when I’m already paying for them to be taken care of by “government experts”. I don’t even worry as much about my car repairs being done correctly. My mechanics have more credibility than Gov’t scientists.
Well, good ole Montana is basking in zero to 20 below. I see the cardboard signs are gone from the interstate ramps, so it looks like the colder it gets the less people are ‘stranded’, ‘will work for food’ or ‘anything will help’. We need to get to -35 for 4 days so that we can kill off the bark beetle that is ravaging our forest (CO2 sinks) and then come up from there. I see New Orleans and Vegas got to shovel a couple inches of global warming.
“What’s going on with the Arctic ice graph??? Two dips??? What is happening??”
If you go to cryosphere today and have a look at a comparison between, say, December 10 and today, you can see pretty much what is happening. The areas of less consolidated ice, say ice at 60% or less concentration seem to have been pushed around by storms. While the amount of 80-100% concentration is still growing, it appears that storms have compacted a lot of the less consolidated ice between Greenland and Europe.
Also, most of the broad areas that freeze have already done so. So if, for example, Hudson’s Bay freezes up a few days early, you will see the anomaly go more positive but when you get to the day where it normally is frozen, that anomaly goes away.
If you do the default comparison with 1980, you will see that there is still plenty of “catching up” to do on the Atlantic side of the Arctic ocean.
You will notice that there is currently little ice below 80-100% concentration on the Atlantic side right now. That is probably more due to winds than temperature.
Freezing Finn (07:59:09) asked:-
“I agree – warmer means good times, major cooling means bad times, end of civilizations and revolutions among other things and so forth – but – is inluenza the THE killer or is it “just a contributing factor”?”
A good point. Flu certainly can kill, even healthy adults, but seasonal flu predominantly sees off the very old and the very young so one could class that as ‘natural’. It can be the trigger for pneumonia, bronchitis, stroke, etc so the actual cause of death might not even be listed as influenza.
Ultimately we all die because our heart stops beating, but do we all die of heart attacks? Death is apportioned to one cause or another and influenza claims a big share.
Cold, flu. norovirus and many other nasties are all more prevalent in the winter. I’d rather have a warm one.
Pamela :
Yes, but then take a look at the overall Arctic ice graph trendline, right at the top of the page,,, no stall is visible, it appears that there is no standard plot for Arctic ice
In 8th and 9th centaury AD during the North Europe’s unprecedented cooling, my ancestors spent nearly 100 years fighting local tribes on their way to warm Mediterranean. Subsequent medieval hot period (12th to 14th centaury AD) did not persuade them to go back.
Also look here for a large research project to more clearly understand Arctic currents.
http://asofw.apl.washington.edu/overview.html
If you know anything about history, the Medieval Warm Period was a prosperous, peaceful time when compared to the Little Ice Age. The Little Ice Age led to plagues, crop failures, massive starvation and many wars. It was a time of great social and political upheaval.
I’ll take warm over cold any day.
Steven Hill: The reason for the decrease in ice growth in the Arctic is because the Hansenites are using the corrupt October data… 😉
Most of the remaining arctic sea ice gain to be seen is in the Bering sea and the sea of Okhotsk. My suspicion is that the water in these seas hasn’t cooled yet to the level required to support sea ice, but based on the air temperatures in those areas I would expect it to start developing soon. Once ice formation starts to take off in the Bering sea and sea of Okhotsk, expect another rapid rise in sea ice extent…
Gore says the ice cap will be gone in five years. What odds can we get on that in Vegas????
Slightly OT but another meteorologist (from CNN!) is now jumping ship.
http://businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081218205953.aspx