Most of the country suffered the coldest September in 14 years, forecasters revealed.
In its monthly summary Met Eireann said the temperature never rose above 20 Celsius anywhere – the first such occurrence in more than 30 years.
Average monthly air temperatures were around half a degree below normal at some southern weather stations and it was the coolest September since 1994 almost everywhere. Forecasters said they were unable to predict the weather over the winter months but the Met Office in Britain claimed temperatures are likely to be above normal over much of Europe, although not as mild as last year.The summer washout seeped into the first half of September, with Dublin stations recording their usual monthly level of rainfall within the first six days.
This also brought the stations’ annual totals for 2008 above the amount normally recorded in a full year. Dublin Airport’s downpour of 43.5mm on the 5th was its highest level for September since the station opened in 1941, while torrential rain on September 9 and 10 caused widespread flooding, especially in the south and west.
@Phil M
I think Sept. MSU data will spike upward due to the recent tropical activity, but October will begin the downward slide.
The oceans have stored enormous amounts of heat the last 30 years. Fortunately this process is slow in both directions so surface temperatures will not plummet straight down. If the ocean heating mechanism whether it be from AGW (has anyone qualitatively demonstrated how?) or direct solar radiation (a novel idea) do not replenish the heat, there is nowhere for surface temperatures to go but down.
The Arctic is 2-8 degrees below last year at this time which usually translates into eventually making it down to Michigan where I live.
Is the sun responsible for what is occurring? Is AGW?
“But this will change in November as a new US government will skew the data to show a rapidly warming world, no matter what themometers may say and how much snow we’ll have to shovel.”
Mais le President nouveau n’assumera pas sa charge avant 21 janvier, 2009.
Denis Hopkins (01:59:32) :
Re: John and Dee
I have looked at the UK Met office site to see the locations of the weather stations that they sue for collating information. I could not see a reference to them so I have emailed asking where I could find that information. Will let you know if I get a reply.
Not sure if I’m the John you are referring to. But, although, I accept that UHI exists I’ m not convinced it’s had that much of an influence in the last 40 or 50 years. There may be some exceptions to this. I think that the very hot July 2006 temps were probably inflated by a significant retention of heat by buildings and roads, for example.
One of the temperature observation sites often cited by sceptics is the Armagh Observatory (NI) because of it’s rural, unchanging location. But if you compare recent temperature trends at Armagh with those at Aldegrove airport (Belfast) there’s not much in it. In fact the Armagh trend is slightly higher (though probably not significantly). I’ve also noticed the same with local stations which are in locations that have remained broadly the same over the past 50-60 years. The trends are pretty much in line with the with general UK/CET trends.
On an anecdotal note: It is quite definitely warmer nowadays (since the 80s) than it was in the 1960s.
Phil M Re: MSU temps
Unless La Nina makes a comeback, it’s likely there will be a gradual return to early/mid 2007 temperatures. If the Sun does have any effect it’s not going to be noticeable for some time yet. As for the change in PDO phase? Has it happened? How does anyone know? I find it hard to find concrete information about the PDO switch and I’m concerned that it may be a “warmist” plot, i.e. the PDO is in a cool phase but temps remain high so it must be CO2……
With respect, all of this “coldest in 57 years, warmest this decade, 32nd warmest in 42 years, not in living memory” etc etc is just anecdotal chit chat. They could all be true and still there might be general warming/cooling or stasis. Why? Because they are not really scientific observations – they simply can’t bear the weight of conclusions which people seek to place upon them.
Whether the temperature goes up for a few months/years or down, of itself proves nothing as to the cause (e.g. AGW or whatever).
Since temperatures have been (much) higher and (much) lower than they now are, a bit of variation up or down doesn’t really tell you very much other than that the earth’s weather and climate are variable.
The core of the argument has to be whether or not the present aspects of climate are so different from what has happened in the past as to require an explanation which goes beyond the usual (i.e. natural) causes of climate.
It seems to me that we are not in such a circumstance and that therefor no special cause needs to be sought out.
At the station of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium at Uccle, near Brussels, the mean temperature of September 2008 was 14.0 °C, while the “normal” for September is 14.6. (I don’t know to what 30-year period this normal refers). So September was slightly colder than normal; the eignht first months of this year were warmer than normal.
This is just MORE proof of global warming! It causes weather extremes including cooling, warming, and no change at all. Droughts, floods and normal rainfall are all attributable to AGW.
Met Office.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/networks/images/map6.gif
John Finn (01:54:26)
“I’m no great fan of the UK met office, but their assessment of the summer temps was spot on. In the context of the last 30 years, 2008 was pretty much an average summer.”
It was definitely not “pretty much an average summer.”
The persistent cloud cover that kept the daytime highs cool also kept the nighttime lows warmer.
Being “under the storm track” for virtually the entire summer – especially “awful August” is definitely not a pretty much average summer.
In the US meanwhile, the seasonal Parade of Cold Fronts across the country is beginning.
Looking at the weather charts for the next couple weeks, it seems the cold air wants to take the northwestern route into the US, coming out of western Canada and Alaska into Washington and Oregon, then eastward into the rest of the country from there, staying mostly across the “northern tier.”
So episodes of heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies over the next couple weeks.
A couple of Deep upper-air closed lows over the southwest US, as some of the cold air “splits” and heads southward as it enters the country.
Most of the eastern third of the country staying mild.
If you use heating oil, this is good for you – no real cold weather in the northeast means it won’t be “evident” to traders that winter weather is beginning, and they won’t bid up the prices yet – still good bargains to be had.
Personally, I use electric heat, and I’ve already filled up my garage and all my closets with all the electrons I can get my hands on.
The Enterprise, Oregon private station recorded mostly higher day to day temps for September compared to the same site last year. The one drawback to that observation is that when the day’s average was lower it was REALLY lower, but when it was higher, it was only slightly higher. It is possible that the monthly average may come out below last year because of those few drastic drops, but overall, it didn’t feel like it was colder than last year. I try not to remember those nights that were colder than a witch’s teat and prefer to remember warm and fuzzy nights.
Some here (especially Mary Hinge) may remember that I’ve been saying for some time that the temps recorded and shown as the Central England Temperature simply don’t match what we here in the UK feel.
John Finn (05:39:18) :
“I think that the very hot July 2006 temps were probably inflated by a significant retention of heat by buildings and roads, for example.”
Presumably the same roads and buildings are there, if not more, so I can’t see where you are going with this. As this summer has shown the prevailing position of the jet stream and the NAO are the important factors in western European weather. In 2006 the Jet stream was much further south, you can see this nicely in this image from July 2006. It is represented by the blue band off the Canaries. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.15.2006.gif
“Unless La Nina makes a comeback, it’s likely there will be a gradual return to early/mid 2007 temperatures.”
This seems unlikely now, a neutral state looks likely, compare the SST anomolies from last year http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.10.4.2007.gif
to this year http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.10.2.2008.gif
“As for the change in PDO phase? Has it happened? How does anyone know? I find it hard to find concrete information about the PDO switch and I’m concerned that it may be a “warmist” plot, i.e. the PDO is in a cool phase but temps remain high so it must be CO2”
Enough of this paranoia, there is no plot! The PDO is in cool phase at the moment, you can see this on this years and last years SST anomoloies above. However bear in mind that the Western Pacific is warmer than average so ‘Cool Phase’ and ‘Warm Phase’ are typical American arogance and should be +ive or -ive. We are currently in a -ive phase though this phase does seem to be weakening rapidly.
“…so it must be CO2”
You’ve hit it in a nutshell!
For those that have read my previous posts will know I have a theory on the gas planets and sunspots. And we know that Neptune and Uranus have come together during the last major solar minimums….Dalton etc.
Lets take it to the next level.
The sunspot peaks alternate between Jupiter and Saturn coming together and Jupiter and Saturn being apposed (with a positive/negative time effect from Neptune/Uranus) see this graph http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/sunssbamcycles.jpg
The top of the cycle (red square) is the conjunction of Jupiter & Saturn.
The bottom of the cycle(blue square) is Jupiter/Saturn apposed.
For the sake of argument lets call the upward slope a positive effect and the downward a negative. For billions of years the Suns dynamo has been working with this rhythm. At the peak of the conjunction the polarity of the dynamo changes to negative which starts the decline in sunspot activity (the planetary force also does a reversal) this goes on till the cycle has ended. The next cycle begins with a reverse polarity which now sends the sunspot activity up until it reaches the opposition which changes the dynamo polarity and starts the decline again. Perfectly in balance and everybody is happy.
Then Neptune and Uranus come together and give and added bonus to both the conjuncture and the opposition which has a negative and positive effect on sunspot production because we now have a change in the normal cycle.
Not terribly easy to explain on here but hope you get it…i will have to update my report.
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/gasgiants.pdf
Personally, I use electric heat, and I’ve already filled up my garage and all my closets with all the electrons I can get my hands on.
Careful! You’ll use up your electron credits and have to buy more. I’m sure some kind soul will trade you theirs for some of your CO2 credits…
“The sunspot peaks alternate between Jupiter and Saturn coming together and Jupiter and Saturn being apposed.”
This is nonsense. The mean synodic Jupiter-Saturn period is 19.86 years, the half of which is 9.93 years. Hence, the interval between Jupiter and Saturn coming together and being opposed, 9.93 years, is sensibly smaller than the mean length of the sunspot cycle.
Just forget the planets!
I live in the UK and last winter a couple of the BBC’s weather forecasts had statements similar to this:
Overnight temperatures will be as low as -4C in central England, 0C in towns and cities
The forecast temperature difference between rural and urban was 4C which is, I think, significant.
Regarding British weather records, for what it’s worth I’ve maintained my own weather station in my backyard on the outskirts of Dundee, Scotland, since summer 2003. Until I saw Anthony’s photos of some of the stations in the USA I figured my own station’s location wasn’t up to the high standards of ‘professional’ meteorologists. However, as it’s nowhere near the outlet of an air conditioner and isn’t obscured by an overhanging tree branch, maybe it’s not so bad…
Anyway, if anyone is interested, data from station are posted every 15 minutes to my website here . There are daily archives going back to July 2003, and for the complete years 2004 – 2007 inclusive, I’ve detected zero change in the annual average temperature (to an accuracy of 0.1 C). 2008 so far is considerably cooler than the 2004-2007 average. No sign of global warming, anthropogenic or otherwise, here in Dundee.
Climate audit just dug up some pretty big news which relates to the construction of hockey sticks. Steve McI got the release of the data used in 20% of the latest hockey stick.
I did a post here to explain it.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/10/03/the-hockey-stick-data-hoax/
This same data was used a bunch of times in other hockey sticks.
John Finn (05:39:18) :
“although, I accept that UHI exists I’ m not convinced it’s had that much of an influence in the last 40 or 50 years. There may be some exceptions to this.”
Here are statistics from a comprehensive study in California on trends in measured temperatures over 86 years:
Counties with >1 million Population +4F
Counties with >100,000 pop, but < 1 million pop +1F
Counties with <100,000 +0F
(I have the graphic but not the website handy.) Apparently, studying a large number of stations suggests that UHI does have a noticeable influence. If you would like anecdotal evidence for significant impact, look at http://www.surfacestations.org/. Take note of the two pictures at the bottom of the home page.
**********************************************
“On an anecdotal note: It is quite definitely warmer nowadays (since the 80s) than it was in the 1960s.”
I do not think that you would find any serious opposition to that statement. Nor would there be objection to saying that the world is warmer now than 150 years ago.
However, a number — but probably not a majority — of people would object to saying that rural areas are warmer now than in the 1930s. In the United States, the heat and drought of the 1930s not only led to large #s of animal deaths from heat exhaustion, but also the climate then caused numerous prairie lakes to dry up. Those lakes are now back and are vibrant. Nevertheless, these are US anecdotes, and those with the resources ($) say that the world as a whole is warmer now than the 30s.
That being said, I believe that most knowledgeable people are shocked to find that peer-reviewed studies can get by with declarations that we are warmer now that in the MWP.
Jean Meeus (08:08:36) :
“The sunspot peaks alternate between Jupiter and Saturn coming together and Jupiter and Saturn being apposed.”
This is nonsense. The mean synodic Jupiter-Saturn period is 19.86 years,
Was waiting for you to comment on that Jean. If you read it correctly you will see I compensate for your argument by saying Neptune and Uranus can extend or shorten the TOTAL cycle as happens. Look at the graph I linked to and plot the sunspot peaks thru time…you will see they line up. Until you can give me a solid argument to the contrary I will pursue my theory.
Mary Hinge (07:29:25) :
John Finn (05:39:18) :
” “Unless La Nina makes a comeback, it’s likely there will be a gradual return to early/mid 2007 temperatures.”
This seems unlikely now, a neutral state looks likely…”
I’m not at all convinced of that.
There’s a rather complex discussion of atmospheric and ocean patterns (written by an active NWS SOO (Science and Operations Officer) here
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
and this is one of the conclusions:
“…These are all characteristics of the global circulation trying to return to a La-Nina base state…”
Mary Hinge (07:29:25) :
Presumably the same roads and buildings are there, if not more, so I can’t see where you are going with this
They weren’t always there. The point I’m making is that Urban Heat is only really a factor during weather extremes.
Enough of this paranoia, there is no plot! The PDO is in cool phase at the moment, you can see this on this years and last years SST anomoloies above
I think you’re looking at the short-term variation rather than the multi-decadal shifts such as those which took place in the early 1940s and mid 1970s. That’s a bit like looking at this years temps and deciding that warming has ended and cooling has now taken over.
“…so it must be CO2″ <
You’ve hit it in a nutshell!
I’m not convinced CO2 is a major climate driver but I need a lot more time than I’ve got at the moment to explain why.
John-x
Uk temps were very much around average. it was a bit wetter than normal but this is a country which for many years was well used to getting regular summer soakings. It’s only in recent years that summer BBQs have become the rage.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/10/02/eafuel102.xml
“Fuel poverty: 1m more households slip into category
“…”The only long term solution to fuel poverty is a massive energy efficiency programme. This will heat homes, cut bills and help meet our targets for tackling climate change…”
The ONLY solution? LONG TERM solution??
This article is really something to read.
There is not one mention of supply, only of “energy efficiency” (insulation, weather stripping), and of course, a “windfall profits tax.”
Meanwhile, some in the UK (far too few apparently) realize that “The Energy Crunch Cometh”
http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/Global_Warming_Politics/A_Hot_Topic_Blog/Entries/2008/10/2_The_Energy_Crunch_Cometh.html
“Britain is now being once again described as the sick man of Europe, with the highest gas and electricity prices, the heaviest extra taxes and charges, the weakest gas storage facilities, a prospect of the most inadequate power generating infrastructure and the worst fuel poverty.” [From: the ‘Opening Remarks’ by The Rt. Hon. Lord Howell of Guildford…”
Meanwhile, in the USA…
“The U.S. Faces Serious Risks of Brownouts or Blackouts in 2009, Study Warns”
http://www.nextgenenergy.org/Portals/NextGen/studies/Nextgen_Lights_Out_Study.pdf
“…the single biggest threat to system reliability is opposition from well-funded environmental groups that oppose and file lawsuits against virtually every new electricity project proposed….”
And who is this “NextGen Energy Council?”
“… a non-profit collaborative of Western and Great Plains Governors, State and federal legislators, State and federal agency officials, business leaders, conservation groups and others committed to accelerating the development of next-generation advanced coal technologies, fossil-renewable hybrid systems and strategies for increasing the economic utilization of carbon dioxide.”
They estimate we’ll need 120 GIGAWATTS of new generation, just between now and 2016, and it’s being fought tooth-and-nail by “well-funded environmental groups.”
We could end up like Britain, where any new, serious generation is so off-limits that we’re only permitted to talk about insulation and weather stripping as an “energy plan.”
“Green” is merely a feeling.
It’s nothing at all compared to freezing, so I still hold out some hope for next year.
John Meeus has a good theory with his planetary stuff. J. H Nelson wrote Cosmic Patterns and he had the flare cycle so sussed that he would turn his radio communicatons to a different channel before the flares disrupted the other channel. He knew when. Once again he hasn’t been discredited in reality although it can appear as such. We should synthesise this in our understanding.
By the way an old way I heard through a farmer of telling the weather in Wales is through the honeysuckle growth. This year its saying its going to be a cold winter he said although how cold I don’t know.
US House passes “rescue bill”
Congratulations America: YOU are on the path to Carbon Taxes