From NASA Science News h/t to John-X
Spotless Sun: 2008 is the Blankest Year of the Space Age
Sept. 30, 2008: Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the “blankest year” of the Space Age.
As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.
“Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. “We’re experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle.”
Above: A histogram showing the blankest years of the last half-century. The vertical axis is a count of spotless days in each year. The bar for 2008, which was updated on Sept. 27th, is still growing. [Larger images: 50 years, 100 years]
A spotless day looks like this:
The image, taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) on Sept. 27, 2008, shows a solar disk completely unmarked by sunspots. For comparison, a SOHO image taken seven years earlier on Sept. 27, 2001, is peppered with colossal sunspots, all crackling with solar flares: image. The difference is the phase of the 11-year solar cycle. 2001 was a year of solar maximum, with lots of sunspots, solar flares and geomagnetic storms. 2008 is at the cycle’s opposite extreme, solar minimum, a quiet time on the sun.
And it is a very quiet time. If solar activity continues as low as it has been, 2008 could rack up a whopping 290 spotless days by the end of December, making it a century-level year in terms of spotlessness.
Hathaway cautions that this development may sound more exciting than it actually is: “While the solar minimum of 2008 is shaping up to be the deepest of the Space Age, it is still unremarkable compared to the long and deep solar minima of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.” Those earlier minima routinely racked up 200 to 300 spotless days per year.
Some solar physicists are welcoming the lull.
“This gives us a chance to study the sun without the complications of sunspots,” says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. “Right now we have the best instrumentation in history looking at the sun. There is a whole fleet of spacecraft devoted to solar physics–SOHO, Hinode, ACE, STEREO and others. We’re bound to learn new things during this long solar minimum.”
As an example he offers helioseismology: “By monitoring the sun’s vibrating surface, helioseismologists can probe the stellar interior in much the same way geologists use earthquakes to probe inside Earth. With sunspots out of the way, we gain a better view of the sun’s subsurface winds and inner magnetic dynamo.””There is also the matter of solar irradiance,” adds Pesnell. “Researchers are now seeing the dimmest sun in their records. The change is small, just a fraction of a percent, but significant. Questions about effects on climate are natural if the sun continues to dim.”
Pesnell is NASA’s project scientist for the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a new spacecraft equipped to study both solar irradiance and helioseismic waves. Construction of SDO is complete, he says, and it has passed pre-launch vibration and thermal testing. “We are ready to launch! Solar minimum is a great time to go.”
Coinciding with the string of blank suns is a 50-year record low in solar wind pressure, a recent discovery of the Ulysses spacecraft. (See the Science@NASA story Solar Wind Loses Pressure.) The pressure drop began years before the current minimum, so it is unclear how the two phenomena are connected, if at all. This is another mystery for SDO and the others.
Who knew the blank sun could be so interesting?
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P. Hager (21:10:30) :
It looks likes cycle 23 still needs at least another 51 spotless days before it has more spotless days than half of the cycles from cycle 6 on.
But remember that I cautioned about the early cycles, that may be missing some Tiny Tims…
Leon Brozyna (15:57:56) : “I don’t know. When I go blank it usually happens at the worst possible time…”
Great line, Leon!
Add one more day ….
Yesterday’s “proto-sunspots” have faded away leaving the sun blank.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotlessallcycles.png
If you look at Jan Janssens’ raw graph, above, this minimum is on track to have about 1,000 spotless days, and the month of solar minimum is still six months off.
It is good to see that NASA is putting out weekly solar updates now. The solar physics community sees the money going to AGW research and believe that it is rightfully theirs.
Like the old Motörhead song:
The age of space
Sorry couldn’t help it…
niteowl: “Maybe the Sun is just taking a break…”
It probably need its trips to the sun too… eh?
Lief,
You have to admit all this fuss about the sun gets you a lot more attention than you got in the old days.
Let’s sing; all together now:
“Momma always told me not to look in the eyes of the sun,
But Momma,
That’s where the fun is!”
Is there anybody who is comparing like for like? It seems that now with modern instrument we are able to see any tiny spot, which I guess was not the case 100 or 200 years ago.
Is there therefore any study made to compare like for like and being able to at least have some proxy comparison for these spotless days. I remember reading that the first person who count the spotless days was an English and that was without any instrument. Are we doing the same to compare?
Otherwise thank you for your great site and congratulations for your number of hit.
@Smokey,
As the balloon increases, so does the surface area — I.e more contact with the unknown. For a given stable set of resources (scientists, engineers, etc) the rate of increase should slow as the balloon increases…
Unfortunately the balloon sometimes deflates rapidly – check European dark ages.
BTW is the balloon increasingly inflated by “Hot Air”.
Cheers G
actuator (19:42:43) :
“The ice age is coming baby….”
Back to the ’70’s with you!! We had all the nonsense of ‘a coming Ice Age ‘ then. See you’ve got into the groove with the lingo man…..’All pray to the Sun God, love and peace, flower power etc.’
When you get your visa join us in the 21st century!!
sunspot activity at a fifty year low…
There hasn’t been much to report on the Global Warming front the past few weeks. This is probably due to the fact that election coverage has been the sole focus of the media and that this has been a relatively……
The # of cumulative spotless days itself is impressive. Janssens shows that the spotless rate of increase is edging toward the outer standard deviation of all recorded solar cycles at least since SC 10 (circa 1855).
P. Hager:
The cumulative spotless days are in excess of 400: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Evolution
Leif:
I understand restraint in making bold statements about cycle minima when seemingly big minima like 1954’s are taken into account, but can this one be reasonably characterized as being unique in terms of solar wind & magnetic output (as opposed to 1954)? Or are those data just too sketchy?
SIDC Monthly sunspot number is out…
1.1 for September – vs. 0.5 for August
The number has DOUBLED in one month ! This must be a tipping point!
Leif Svalgaard says
But remember that I cautioned about the early cycles, that may be missing some Tiny Tims…
If the tiny Tims were not counted in early times why should they be counted today, if you count these tiny Times surely you then cannot compare early data with recent modern data. Perhaps the tiny Tims do not matter and should be discounted.
actuator:
“The ice age is coming baby….”
Mary: Back to the ’70’s with you!! We had all the nonsense of ‘a coming Ice Age ‘ then. … When you get your visa join us in the 21st century!!
Prior to entry, of course, you will be required to view “An Inconvenient Truth”, and to repeat the AGW mantra of “the planet has a fever” and be able to cite chapter and verse how man is to blame, this is a planetary crisis, and we must act immediately (“we” meaning the developed countries, especially the U.S).
Proto sunspots. Kind of like proto galaxies, before the real deal evolved. in a year or two, we can expect real sunspots.
The total amt. of spotless days is what takes us right into Lewis & Clark timeframe, 200 yrs. back. We are almost ‘there’.
Poor old flux, it looked like it was going to get out of it’s funk, but now is sunk back to baseline.
Who was monitoring the sun in 1810?
How many monitoring stations? Where were they?
How did they do it? I guess what I’m getting at is can we replicate 1810 monitoring stations and compare their results with today’s monitoring? We should be able to adjust the 1810 numbers! Interesting thought… there is not a temperature station in the country that is not “adjusted” for some reason, yet the 1810 solar observations are perfect!
stumbled upon!
not related to sun but NOAA
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/news/2008/090808a.html
PSD researcher Marty Hoerling gave an invited presentation entitled, “Climate Change in the Grain Belt,” on September 10 at the 2008 Corn and Climate Conference in Ames, IA. His presentation focused on the fact that since 1895 there has not been a warming of temperatures in the Corn Belt during the growing season.
leebertarian (05:27:53) :
can this one be reasonably characterized as being unique in terms of solar wind & magnetic output (as opposed to 1954)? Or are those data just too sketchy?
The solar wind is now where it was 100 years ago and the sunspot minimum is comparable to 50 years ago, so not unique on any of these counts. Still interesting.
Has anyone set up a web site listing all those who have made predictions about global warming, or are simply global warming believers? I speak of not just the big bears like Al Gore, but also Jason Lowe of the UK Met Office http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/oct/01/climatechange.carbonemissions Someone should list ALL these people, so that when the globe continues to cool we can at least point at them and laugh.
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Niteowl,
perhaps an Accumulated Smoothed Sunspot index might have a bit to do with higher temps in the late 20th century
Have to be careful if you acronoym Accumulated Smooth Sunspot. If you start batting around the term ‘ASS index’ having to do with higher temps in the late 20th Century, there are public figures with Oscars and recent passport stamps from the UK (and a goodie bag from Greenpeace) that might take offense.
Steve Berry (06:47:54) :
” Has anyone set up a web site listing all those who have made predictions about global warming, or are simply global warming believers? I speak of not just the big bears like Al Gore, but also Jason Lowe of the UK Met Office
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/oct/01/climatechange.carbonemissions
Someone should list ALL these people, so that when the globe continues to cool we can at least point at them and laugh. ”
We ABSOLUTELY need to be taking names.
Remember IRACS – the archetypal response of an orthodoxy to new ideas
Ignore
Ridicule
Attack
Copy
Steal
– IF – a substantial climate response due to solar effects is conclusively established, some of these “man-made global warming” fanatics will get to the STEAL phase and suddenly remember that the Sun-Climate relationship was their idea to begin with!