Small sunspecks emerging on both solar hemispheres

In comments, Jonn-X wondered:

Dead pixels or new sunspecks (pore-ettes) ?

At first I was pretty sure I was looking at nothing, then I saw the official NOAA bulletin

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

and the usual phrase, “The visible disk was spotless,” was omitted – typical practice when there’s something there, but too small to be “officially noticed.”

Anybody else see anything?

I do. I know where the dead pixels are, and have labeled them below in the SOHO MDI image. Note that there are two very small sunspecks, possibly soon to be sunspots, emerging on both sides of the equator.

Click for a full sized image

For those that don’t know. The SOHO spacecraft sensor does have some stuck pixels, and these can sometimes be cured in a “bake off” where they heat up the sensor for a few hours.

Our resident official solar physicist, Dr. Leif Svalgarrd will confirm or refute my suspicions on the categorizations of SC23 and SC24 I’m sure. For comparisons, you can also see the SOHO magnetogram.

I’ve included it also below:

UPDATE: The specks are fading, so far no observation agency has assigned a region or counted them that I know of, see the updated SOHO MDI.

SOHO Magnetogram
SOHO Magnetogram- click for larger image

UPDATED SOHO MDI:

Click for larger image

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October 2, 2008 12:24 pm


nobwainer (07:49:37) :
… every occurrence of Neptune/Uranus coming together in the last 700 years DID correlate with a solar minimum as per Dalton, Maunder,Sporer, Wolf?

Just for fun I tested this statement in a simulator. It somehow “works” for conjunctions in 1308, 1479, 1650 and 1821, but fails for 1993.

October 2, 2008 12:35 pm

Glenn (11:58:26) :
A paper in the Journal Of Geophysical Research from a year ago (2007),
If</b? ACRIM satellite composite is adopted the Sun
might have further contributed to the recent global warming.”
Long been debunked?

Debunked, absolutely. Note the two weasel words: “if” and “might have”.
Look at this from Wikipedia [that you like so much]:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png
No increase between minima.
At SORCE 2008 [that I have referred you to repeatedly] Judith Lean concluded that “longer-term variations not yet detectable – … do they occur?”
So, yes, debunked!
For more about longer-term variations of TSI, see http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/papers/haberreiter/Schoell_subm2007.pdf
Especially their Figure 4. No variation of TSI from minimum to minimum. Note, how the earlier reconstructions, that showed such variations, have steadily converged to flat-lining.
As I have said before, hunting around on the Internet for snippets that match your opinion is no substitute for actually knowing what is being done [as well as being an activity participant] in the field.

October 2, 2008 2:01 pm

Glenn (11:58:26) :
Most of what you cite are platitudes:
“The Earth’s weather and climate regime is determined by the total solar irradiance (TSI) and its interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and landmasses.
Of course, turn off the Sun and all that…But says nothing about the variations.
Evidence from both 29 years of direct satellite monitoring and historical proxy data leaves no doubt that solar luminosity in general, and TSI in particular, are intrinsically variable phenomena.
Also true, but says nothing about the size of the variability, which is the crux of the matter.
Subtle variations of TSI resulting from periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit (Milankovich cycles: ~20, 40 and 100 Kyrs) cause climate change ranging from major ice ages to the present inter-glacial, clearly demonstrating the dominance of TSI in climate change on long timescales. TSI monitoring, cosmogenic isotope analyses and correlative climate data indicate that variations of the TSI have been a significant climate forcing during the current inter-glacial period (the last ~ 10 Kyrs.).

are dealing with changes not of the Sun, but of the aspect of the Earth over ten of thousands of years.
Phenomenological analyses of TSI monitoring results during the past (nearly) three decades, TSI proxies during the past 400 years and the records of surface temperature show that TSI variation has been the dominant forcing for climate change during the industrial era.
Is the only reference to our debate and that only over the industrial era.
The periodic character of the TSI record indicates that solar forcing of climate change will likely be the dominant variable contributor to climate change in the future.”
The TSI record only shows three solar cycles of ~11 years each and 11-year cycles are not the 30-year intervals that define climate, so a bit a sleight of hand here. Could even be true, but says nothing about the tiny size of this variation.
A paper in the Journal Of Geophysical Research from a year ago (2007),
“If ACRIM satellite composite is adopted the Sun might have further contributed to the recent global warming.”

contains the weasel words if and might have and is therefore a far cry from ‘prevailing understanding’ and ‘accepted’.
Long been debunked?
Indeed, absolutely yes.
This image from the wikipedia you like so much:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png
shows [as is proper] that there is no change from minimum to minimum, and, in particular, not the calibration error in the ACRIM data between cycle 21 and 22.
At the recent SORCE 2008 meeting Judith Lean concluded that for TSI “longer-term variations not yet detectable-… do they occur?”. You can see more of the modern view of TSI reconstructions here: http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/papers/haberreiter/Schoell_subm2007.pdf Especially their Figure 4, that shows how at each minimum TSI returns to the same value. Note also how the older [now obsoleted] TSI reconstructions converge with time to the flat-lining that I have pointed out repeatedly.
So, yes, long debunked!
Hunting around on the Internet for snippets that out of context may support your opinion is no substitute for deep knowledge of [and active participation in] the field. You would be better informed by accepting this and move forward with a solid basic understanding that can be had here ‘chez’ Anthony.

October 2, 2008 3:39 pm

Carsten Arnholm, Norway (12:24:12) :
nobwainer (07:49:37) :
“… every occurrence of Neptune/Uranus coming together in the last 700 years DID correlate with a solar minimum as per Dalton, Maunder,Sporer, Wolf?
Just for fun I tested this statement in a simulator. It somehow “works” for conjunctions in 1308, 1479, 1650 and 1821, but fails for 1993.”
And what does your Simulator say for 2009?

Joachim
October 3, 2008 1:02 am

I appreciate your efforts Leif, and I learn more from you than from _any_ other source on this subject.
I have some questions however, that perhaps you share:
How certain are we that the temperature of our planet returns to a level that reflects the TSI minimum in the solar cycle?
I have read that it takes hundreds of years for the oceans heatsink-effect to catch up with variation in atmospheric temperature. Surely the same would be for variation in TSI?
Did the earths temperature (climate) during the maunder minimum better reflect the TSI of solar minimum?
Are these related to your questions on CA about the climate having a higher sensitivity to TSI than “we” think?

Steve M.
October 3, 2008 5:23 am

anyone else notice 1, maybe 2 new sunspecks today?

October 3, 2008 5:54 am

[…] Comment on Small sunspecks emerging on both solar hemispheres by …nobwainer (07:49:37) : … every occurrence of Neptune/Uranus coming together in the last 700 years DID correlate with a solar minimum as per Dalton, Maunder,Sporer, Wolf? Just for fun I tested this statement in a simulator. … […]

John-X
October 3, 2008 7:15 am

Steve M. (05:23:21) :
“anyone else notice 1, maybe 2 new sunspecks today?”
Can’t see the specks yet but I definitely see a plage and a pronounced BMR (bi-polar magnetic region) fairly deep in the southern hemisphere, just coming out of the eastern limb.

John-X
October 3, 2008 7:19 am

A couple small areas nearer the central meridian, south of 30 degrees S also look like they have specklet potential.

October 3, 2008 9:05 am

John-X (07:15:00) :
Steve M. (05:23:21) :
Can’t see the specks yet but I definitely see a plage and a pronounced BMR (bi-polar magnetic region) fairly deep in the southern hemisphere, just coming out of the eastern limb.
This is definitely SC24 activity, but as often happens when the specks are small, Joy’s law is not well obeyed. The leading polarity seems to be ‘black’ which is what it was for SC23 southern Hemisphere spots.
http://solis.nso.edu/vsm_current_m630l_mr.jpg

Alphajuno
October 4, 2008 9:58 am

Does anyone know what the alignment of Neptune, Uranus, and Jupiter does to the Barycenter of the Solar System and its possible contribution to a quieter Sun? I find the relationship intriguing. Thanks.
http://www.viewzone.com/paper03.html

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