This is a “sticky” post that remains at top so that you can watch the progess of Ike. Click images for full size or the link below them for an animated loop.
Click for loop Click for radar loop Click for loop Click for full size
UPDATE:
Latest Buoy Observations near Hurricane Ike
Zoomable map of Ike Radar loop of Ike
Galveston Hurricane of 1900
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2000/galveston/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#galveston
Are there any websites to follow the tracks former hurricanes when they become storms in the north Atlantic once they’re out of NHC’s area of interest? I’ve seen storms headed back to Europe, and last year I saw one projected by NOAA to hit Greenland.
My great fear is that the storm will hit just North of Galveston. That will bring the surge into the bay between Galveston Island and Texas City. This was the worst case that was talked about when I lived on the island. That would wipe much of Galveston out. There is no seawall to protect Galveston from that direction and the rush of water and waves will just be smashing.
Bob D.
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That looks like it’ll be really close to what I’m interested in when you’re done. I could only get the plot with intensities to generate. Tried low-high res with same result.
Looks like Ike’s western side is getting better organized as high pressure is weakening to it’s west. Late tonight or tomorrow, this thing will be in Cat 3 status.
Here’s an article from the AP on this storm.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IKE_SURGE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2008-09-11-18-44-28
And another one with shoreline after landfall lines:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/ike_now_targeti.html
I’m nervous. I grew up in Galveston. Lived through Carla while in the medical center complex where Dad worked. Just spoke with my best friend of 50 years who still lives there. He and his wife are sticking it out. They live behind the seawall but there is a chance the seawall will be topped this time.
I guess it just depends on where the eye hits. During Carla it was about 90 miles down the coast. Galveston is a barrier island about 30 miles long and usually about 1 and 1/2 miles wide. The eye is projected to hit the west end of the island. The seawall protects the eastern third. Galveston proper will get the dirty eye-wall if the projected track occurs.
Hoping for the best. A 50 mile jog to the east would spare a lot of people and prevent a lot of damage.
David Mills
Your friend and his wife will be fine if they have the smarts to get into UTMB and stay there during the storm. If they are employees or former employees UTMB might even be happy to have them around. If the forecast turned bad and I was fool enough to still be on the island right before the storm hit, that is where I’d head. I wouldn’t wait until things actually got bad. They need a plan B! My wife and I fled two hurricanes while we lived in Galveston.
They have some solid parking garages at UTMB. They were my plan D. I lived only a couple blocks away and I think you might survive a serious storm in one of them. Getting out of Galveston early enough was plan A.
Here comes the surge. Residuals are climbing all along the Western Gulf Coast. At last report, Shell Island, La, hundreds of miles north of the center and technically now in the rear right quadrant, was at 7ft residual. At Galveston Pleasure Pier it has been slowly rising all day, now above 2-1/2 feet. All that water which made Shell rise 7 feet, moving longshore, that far out from the center, continues to move west. The dodged bullet would be a turn to the right exceeding the forecast, but that would merely mean, Port Arthur instead of Galveston gets the killer surge. Watch out!
The cone of uncertainty on the site isn’t nearly as sexy like the CNN map, which has reds, oranges, purples and all shades in between to scare us to death.
You are being featured on Five Star Friday:
http://www.fivestarfriday.com/2008/09/five-star-friday-edition-23.html
The pictures on the news today really show the power of this beast. A Cat 2 storm with Cat 5 surge/waves. This storm is producing Cat2 surge/waves, while its still 200 or so miles away. And there are many people who are not leaving the Galveston area. I guess they think the sea wall will protect them. Not very smart for this particular hurricane. Cat 2 winds with Cat 5 surge/waves.
An eye has really been trying to form today, but dry air is getting in. It’ll be lucky to make Cat3, but it doesn’t matter anymore. The devastation will be the same either way. May the good Lord spare the fools that have decided to ride it out. Calling them fools may be a bit harsh, but it is a very foolish thing they do, and they will remember it next time(if they are around for a next time).
I don’t know if there is any science to confirm my belief (I’m an old old engineer) that a greater temperature differential between the poles and tropics will tend to produce more violent weather. Are there any studies about this concept—I know the AGW crowd believes the opposite.
I heard that the National Hurricane Center is warning that anyone who does not leave Galveston is facing certain death!
Is this true? Has anyone ever heard of such a warning from the NHC before? I thought this sounded very strange.
If someone is trying to stick it out in Galveston in a normally constructed one or even possibly two story home or apartment, and some sort of miracle does not happen between now and tonight, yes, they face certain death.
‘Certain death’ is almost wishful thinking on their part.
It is possible to ride out a hurricane. You just have to have a structure (e.g. underground fallout shelter)…that can withstand water, wind, and debris.
100 MPH wind won’t kill you alone…even though holding on to the ground…breathing would be extemely difficult. Imagine going 100 MPH on the freeway and sticking your head out the window. Try breathing then.
But if breathing doesn’t irritate you enough…you’ve got flying objects to smack you around…or things for you to fly into. Physics can really suck for humans sometimes. But that’s why we’ve got a brain.
I think the mayor there said that 40% of the residents are staying. The 2000 census said there were about 57,000 people there. So I guess that means the NHC and homeland security needs to expect about 23,000 deaths. if that does not happen, I would say it was hype.
Yes, the NHC did issue a statement suggesting certain death if you stayed. Also this morning, sheriff deputies were going door to door in Galveston asking residents to leave. If they were going to stay, they were asked to write their SSN#’s on their arms so they could be identified later. NO JOKE!
Dry air intrusion from earlier is no more. Ike looks to be intensifying and has a HUGE eye. CAT 3 is looking very possible now. Sometimes hurricanes can intensify rapidly in the hours before landfall. We”ll see how far Ike goes. Either way, this is a very, very bad storm. Increasing wind speeds will just add insult to the injury.
The whole of Galveston could be inundated by a 20 foot storm surge. Most shelters would not suffice.
Anyone who stays is a fool.
I may be very wrong, but I have a feeling that this “certain death” warning is akin to the exaggerations that the AGW folks spread in order to scare people into doing what their bidding. I hope I am right, otherwise there will be thousands of body bags on the news tomorrow.
I’ve added Buoy observations and some historical links – Anthony
A 20 foot storm surge would destroy nearly every house on Galveston island, just like it did in 1900. Most of the city is less than five feet above sea level.
Fox News is estimating that there are 10,000 people staying for the storm.
They are saying the surge may top the seawall by several feet. Add 10′ to the top of the waves, 1′ of tide,1′ of rain. People don’t understand that the weakest house on the block is going to break up and hammer the house next to it until it falls apart. After 15 minutes of this you have a raft of splintered wood that will sweep everything before it. Even good houses will fail. You want to be in something high and solid. I’d pick Big Red over any house on the island.
Here’s a nice site for sat images. Ike up to 110mph. Looks like his eye is getting smaller and an inner eye wall is forming.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/