Ike Track

This is a “sticky” post that remains at top so that you can watch the progess of Ike. Click images for full size or the link below them for an animated loop.


Click for loop Click for radar loop  Click for loop Click for full size

UPDATE:

Latest Buoy Observations near Hurricane Ike

Zoomable map of Ike Radar loop of Ike


Galveston Hurricane of 1900

http://www.1900storm.com/

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2000/galveston/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#galveston

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112 thoughts on “Ike Track

  1. Yeah, it makes one wonder. The NHC always cautions people not to pay too much heed to the 3-5 day projections. There are so many variables it is difficult to forecast accurately where a storm will go and how intense it will be at that time. This then begs the question of how we are supposedly able to forecast for decades or centuries the temperature of globe, which is an even more complicated process given the factors that go into it. I think the reality is that we cannot at this time, and the ‘forecasts’ are being used for political purposes. I know that is not shocking to anyone who reads this blog reguarly.

  2. The disclaimer at the bottom of the hurricane “spaghetti” graph…
    “If ANYTHING on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product.”

    Maybe the IPCC should include a similsr disclaimer on their products.

  3. I like their attitude. If you click on the “additional information” link you get additional disclaimers:

    These scatter plots are intended for use by individuals with proper training and expertise.

    There are multiple potential causes of misinterpretation that include, but are not limited to, the following:

    – Each model utilizes different assumptions and different calculations which leads to different models performing better in different situations.

    – All models have unique biases.

    – Some models utilize statistics, some utilize physics formulas, some utilize a combination of both.

    – Some models perform best with weaker systems, others perform best with well-developed, purely tropical systems.

    – The spread of the various model solutions can give a sense of the uncertainty associated with a particular storm track. However, some of the models are interrelated as they share the same initial analyses or the same global forecast fields. Therefore, clustering of model solutions does not necessarily indicate truely independent agreement.

    – Poor model analyses of initial conditions can lead to even worse model solutions.

    – The National Hurricane Center has access to many other models and data not included in these products. At times, these other models and data have a significant impact on the forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center.

    – Further information on some of the models used by the National Hurricane Center can be found at the National Hurricane Center website, the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters website, and the Hurricane Research Division website.

  4. When this storm gets stronger and the central dense overcast gets a lot bigger and better organized, it’ll respond very easily to the upper level environment. I think high pressure will be NE of it by this time(48hrs or so) with a trough moving in from the NW. It’ll feel that trough and start moving a little more NW. I’m thinking Galveston area landfall as a Cat 3 or weak 4. But , because this thing is getting so big, it’ll affect huge amounts of real estate on the western Gulf with strong tropical/hurricane force winds, and also the tornadoes.

  5. Everyone in Houston and just south needs to be careful here. Landfall will be in this area, and as the days go by, the NHC will move the forecast cone there. The only reason they aren’t doing it now is for continuity with previous forecasts and to see what the ingestion of new data into the 00z model runs look like. The trends are ominous. Also, one should expect explosive deepening tomorrow, and a cat 4 by day’s end is not out of the question. Ike’s structure and the local environment are screaming for rapid intensification beyond the next 8 hours time period.

    Now you know

  6. Does anyone archive the model runs and produce a map showing actual track along with the spaghetti?

    I do like the style of presentation of both the spaghetti plots and the bent ice-cream-code that Anthony links to at the top, but have always wondered idly about winding time back to compare actual path with predictions….

  7. Ok, I want to play to. I will guess it hits north of Houston. I say cat 2 by end of day tomorrow.

    Disclaimer:
    I know absolutely nothing about hurricane forecasting. If anything in this product confuses you, please ignore it.

  8. RBerteig.
    Unlike IPCC climate models, hurricane spaghetti models have a shelf life of 6 hours at most. These models are dependent on the information of the current conditions that appear to have an immediate effect on the storm. As those conditions change, the models change to reflect what the updated conditions tend to forcast. We all know that these models will change over time. As one who lives on the coast of central southwest Florida, I start watching the model forcasts early even though I know they are going to change. I have a steady checklist of things I need to do as a storm approaches. I use the models as a time & degree of danger table rather than a set in stone prediction. These models dictate what I am going to do and when I am going to do it.

  9. It didn’t take long for the eye structure to reform after leaving Cuba. As Emeril says “BAM”! If I lived on the TX coast, I’d be packing and finding another place to go for a while.

  10. I predict a hypercane!

    Many know this as a special class of hurricane that feeds off the sucrose that is absorbed after passing over sugar cane fields.

    Hypercanes have a gestation period of several days when the sucrose is digested by a bacteria whose dormant cycle is awoken by the low pressure in the eye-wall of a hurricane. The bacteria become “hyper” when exposed to sucrose. Current research has proven that Anthropogenic CO2 is a catalyst for the sucrose digestion.

    After several days of gestation, the bacteria near the surface of the water are attracted to those on the opposite side of the wall and this attraction causes the eye wall to close at the surface. The hurricane now has formed the classic hyper cane configuration, in which the lower portion of the cane forms a large bowl shape which detaches from the surface. The hyper cane becomes especially unpredictable as it tends to bounce and the path cannot be predicted using traditional tracking models.

    What is most frightening is that with a doubling of CO2, the hypercanes will have enough bounce to overcome gravity and be ejected from the atmoshpere.

  11. The Weather Channel is showing the predicted landfall between the borders of Texas. Well I have my evacuation plan, but I hope they are wrong.

  12. Ha, that hypercane is probably a Category 10 CO2. Could it be the human race’s entree to the Galaxial Council?

  13. Bill Nye the science guy, on The Weather Channel has changed CO2, to CO2 pollution whenever he speaks of it.

  14. @Mike Bryant

    Thankfully, he no longer has a children’s science TV show, otherwise I would have to proclaim this yet another example of childhood indoctrination!

  15. Tucker (15:57:03) :

    The trends are ominous. Also, one should expect explosive deepening tomorrow, and a cat 4 by day’s end is not out of the question. Ike’s structure and the local environment are screaming for rapid intensification beyond the next 8 hours time period.

    We’ll see. The water vapor image shows some dry air where the storm is heading tomorrow, so that may slow down development for a while. Other than that, it’s a good looking storm.

  16. Dee Norris wrote:

    Thankfully, he no longer has a children’s science TV show, otherwise I would have to proclaim this yet another example of childhood indoctrination!

    He’s got a show on Planet Puke, er, Green, which seems to be geared toward idiots.

  17. As I recall watching the Ike models over time (even before this thread), the XTRP (black triangle) model has been doing quite well at predictive tracking…

  18. ‘Bill Nye the science guy, on The Weather Channel has changed CO2, to CO2 pollution whenever he speaks of it.’
    Just one of the reasons why I no longer use TWC as a source.

  19. McCall,

    XTRP is simply an extrapolation of current motion. It is not a model. Many people mention it sarcastically, so if you were doing so, then nevermind. Also, CLP model is really just an historical model. I really have no idea why they even show it.

  20. Ric Werme,

    True enough. It only takes one negative variable to upset the apple cart of intensification. The inner core is so tight that I’m not sure the dry air will have a great impact, but you could certainly be correct. At this time, it appears to be on the threshold of taking off strength-wise. I agree that shear becomes a bigger player over time. Even if Ike were to reach a cat 5 (which I am not predicting btw), I don’t believe it hits TX higher than cat 3. That’s strong enough though.

  21. This storm will get about 1/10 the coverage of Gustav since it will miss “[Snip – pejorative for New Orleans]”.

  22. Mike Bryant (04:41:09) :

    Seems like the eye is invisible like Hanna’s.

    That’s covered by “Central Dense Overcast.” If I were me, I’d suggest that it’s a sign the storm is suffering from dry air ingestion, but I might also wait until a visible light image was available.

    All the best hurricanes have a tight clear eye. The water vapor loop showed the eye fade over the last several hours, it had looked pretty good after leaving Cuba.
    The latest image (1145UT) may show the CDO clearing.

  23. “It appears that every model missed the slight jog north.”

    I don’t pretend to know how this thing is being directed by the patterns around it but the loops don’t make it appear headed west of Galveston.

  24. Here’s an interesting site for seeing the different forecast models:

    http://www.stormpulse.com/

    Just click the “forecasting On” radio button. The page provides distances to major cities and other info as well.

    Now if there was just a way of having the historic forecasts display/update and comparing them to the actual track as the storm advances. I’m assuming someone does that for a living, but it’d be interesting to see them update on screen.

    Anyone know if there’s an historic accuracy rating for the different forecasting models?

  25. RE: a hypercane!

    “Many know this as a special class of hurricane that feeds off the sucrose that is absorbed after passing over sugar cane fields…”

    I had some middle school students who were like this the day after Halloween – very scary.

  26. Looks like Houston is now Bulls-eye for Ike. Plot hours 60 and 66 on a map and see where it is!! It may even creep a little more right than this, but Ike should make landfall near Houston vicinity.

    ATTENTION…NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

    NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

    HURRICANE IKE 09L

    INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

    DISCLAIMER … THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
    REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
    NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
    OFFICIAL FORECAST.

    FORECAST STORM POSITION

    HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

    0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
    6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
    12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
    18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
    24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
    30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
    36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
    42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
    48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
    54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
    60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
    66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
    72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
    78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
    84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
    90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
    96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
    102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
    108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

  27. Bill Nye identifying CO2 as a pollutant gives me pause. He seems generally informed on science. Is there a root cause that is not cognitive dissonance or some conspiracy variant?

    Perhaps the root cause is that many scientists don’t grasp the problems with modeling because it is a specialized discipline and thus not widely understood. Therefore, these folks should be open to changing their view if it can be explained to them clearly….

  28. Anthony,
    Thanks for showing more of the posts, now if you could show more of the most recent comments, that would be really fine.
    Plus I bet it would make your numbers go up even more.
    Thanks,
    Mike

  29. Pete (16:32:30) :

    Bill Nye identifying CO2 as a pollutant gives me pause. He seems generally informed on science. Is there a root cause that is not cognitive dissonance or some conspiracy variant?

    Perhaps the root cause is that many scientists don’t grasp the problems with modeling because it is a specialized discipline and thus not widely understood. Therefore, these folks should be open to changing their view if it can be explained to them clearly….

    I think Nye is completely obsessed on the green “end” of the spectrum.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/10/bill-nye-ed-begley-compet_n_111834.html

  30. Mike Bryant (18:25:58) :

    Ok, I want to play to. I will guess it hits north of Houston. I say cat 2 by end of day tomorrow.

    Disclaimer:
    I know absolutely nothing about hurricane forecasting. If anything in this product confuses you, please ignore it.

    OK, I got the CAT 2 correct. Now hoping for north of Houston. I live between Houston and Corpus Christi, very close to Port Lavaca.

  31. Here is a cool “toy” to play with when storms and hurricanes develop:
    StormPulse
    If you put your mouse on a city it gives you the distance from the
    hurricane. Two sad anomalies: 1) You can expand it world-wide, but it
    doesn’t show other storm systems (or things are pretty dead) 2) It
    depicts the Arctic Ocean as all broken up and circumnavigable.
    But it IS a cool toy…great graphics on someone’s part.

  32. Question for those who might know:

    I’ve been checking the models regularly, (and not just for Ike), and the XTRP model seems to be munged up. It’s good at drawing nothing but straight lines, and has been doing so for about a month…maybe longer. What’s going on?

  33. Mike86,

    You can plot storm positions vs. the forecasts for those positions at
    http://dss.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/datasets/tcplot
    It’s still a work in progress, and forecast comparison plots are only available for the N. Atlantic for 2008 right now.

    I’m working on back-filling to 1995 the forecast data for N. Atlantic and Eastern N. Pacific cyclones. When that is done, all forecast data will be available for plotting and download.

  34. For those living on the central and northern TX coast, even the SW Louisiana coast,you really need to leave. This storm is already showing characteristics of a stronger storm than it’s Cat rating. It’s wind field is bigger than Katrina’s already and is forecast to intensify even more.

    Here’s some important info. This comes from Jeff Masters blog at Weather Underground.

    The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike’s storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina’s. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike’s surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This “Integrated Kinetic Energy” was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane’s storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale. At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.

    “Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds–275 miles–and in it radius of hurricane force winds–115 miles. For comparison, Katrina’s tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike’s huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961”

    Please LEAVE, and tell family and friends to LEAVE this area. This thing is BIG. DO NOT GO BY THE CAT RATING ALONE. Again, it is showing higher rating characteristics and is forecast to slowly intensify.

    Best to be safe than sorry.

  35. Brian D,

    Great advice. In the last half hour, it is believed that Ike finally completed its eye wall replacement cycle that may have been the longest in history. In that time, it strengthened mightily, but the inner structure has prevented the winds from increasing above cat 2. However, if indeed it has completed its cycle, we may be lucky in that Ike’s winds will increase and alert everyone to the monster that he really is. Ike is so much more dangerous than Katrina ever was because he seems not to be as powerful. As your article concludes, he has the largest potential energy of any hurricane in the last 40 years. That says a LOT.

    Storm surge is going to kill a lot of people here. Early indications place it on par with Carla and the 1900 hurricane

  36. I would like to to share a quote from a post on a weather forum.

    As a nurse, and past Fl. resident, and worked relief after all the storms from Andrew to Wilma.
    This is not a test. If you live through the storm you will then be faced with two weeks or more without power. That means, no water, no A/c, no medical services, no ATM, no gas can be pumped no stores open, and stink all around you with no sanitation available. It is beyond miserable. You will get dehydrated and probably get dysentery because you can’t keep clean. All it takes is your dirty hand to your mouth one time. Your sick, with no one to help.
    The storm surge is going to be amazing and the power behind all that moving water will leave nothing standing, the 100 mph winds between tall buildings will double in strength. Do not even consider staying if you live in the CONE OF FEAR! Get out, and get out now. If you have people you know in the area, call them and BEG them to leave. Even if you’re wrong, give them permission to laugh at you for the rest of your lives. I can’t express enough concern here.

    This is really serious stuff. Not only will the storms wrath be ugly, but it’ll be bad in the aftermath as well. Please just leave.

  37. Let’s pray for the folks along the Texas Gulf Coast. This one is headed my way, but I live far enough inland (central AR) that I’m not usually worried about myself, or family that live here. But I have family in Texas, and my son’s in-laws are in Beaumont. I’m hoping they sit this out up in Dallas with my son.

    I was surprised that the current forecast has Ike still at tropical storm levels when it exits Texas and moves into Arkansas. That means we’re likely to see even stronger winds than we saw with Gustav. But for us, the real worry of these things is always the potential flooding from torrential rains. We got 8-11 inches here locally out of Gustav. If Ike is as bad as it is looking to be, and comes into Arkansas the way the latest track has it, we could be in for even more. I’ve got my waders ready at the back door.

  38. Basil,

    Given the dispersed structure and resultant large wind field, I would certainly believe you will see tropical storm force winds in AR. It will take a while for Ike to wind down, IMHO.

  39. Pingback: The Carden Chronicles

  40. Are there any websites to follow the tracks former hurricanes when they become storms in the north Atlantic once they’re out of NHC’s area of interest? I’ve seen storms headed back to Europe, and last year I saw one projected by NOAA to hit Greenland.

  41. My great fear is that the storm will hit just North of Galveston. That will bring the surge into the bay between Galveston Island and Texas City. This was the worst case that was talked about when I lived on the island. That would wipe much of Galveston out. There is no seawall to protect Galveston from that direction and the rush of water and waves will just be smashing.

  42. Bob D.

    <>

    That looks like it’ll be really close to what I’m interested in when you’re done. I could only get the plot with intensities to generate. Tried low-high res with same result.

  43. Looks like Ike’s western side is getting better organized as high pressure is weakening to it’s west. Late tonight or tomorrow, this thing will be in Cat 3 status.

  44. I’m nervous. I grew up in Galveston. Lived through Carla while in the medical center complex where Dad worked. Just spoke with my best friend of 50 years who still lives there. He and his wife are sticking it out. They live behind the seawall but there is a chance the seawall will be topped this time.

    I guess it just depends on where the eye hits. During Carla it was about 90 miles down the coast. Galveston is a barrier island about 30 miles long and usually about 1 and 1/2 miles wide. The eye is projected to hit the west end of the island. The seawall protects the eastern third. Galveston proper will get the dirty eye-wall if the projected track occurs.

    Hoping for the best. A 50 mile jog to the east would spare a lot of people and prevent a lot of damage.

  45. David Mills
    Your friend and his wife will be fine if they have the smarts to get into UTMB and stay there during the storm. If they are employees or former employees UTMB might even be happy to have them around. If the forecast turned bad and I was fool enough to still be on the island right before the storm hit, that is where I’d head. I wouldn’t wait until things actually got bad. They need a plan B! My wife and I fled two hurricanes while we lived in Galveston.

    They have some solid parking garages at UTMB. They were my plan D. I lived only a couple blocks away and I think you might survive a serious storm in one of them. Getting out of Galveston early enough was plan A.

  46. Here comes the surge. Residuals are climbing all along the Western Gulf Coast. At last report, Shell Island, La, hundreds of miles north of the center and technically now in the rear right quadrant, was at 7ft residual. At Galveston Pleasure Pier it has been slowly rising all day, now above 2-1/2 feet. All that water which made Shell rise 7 feet, moving longshore, that far out from the center, continues to move west. The dodged bullet would be a turn to the right exceeding the forecast, but that would merely mean, Port Arthur instead of Galveston gets the killer surge. Watch out!

  47. The cone of uncertainty on the site isn’t nearly as sexy like the CNN map, which has reds, oranges, purples and all shades in between to scare us to death.

  48. The pictures on the news today really show the power of this beast. A Cat 2 storm with Cat 5 surge/waves. This storm is producing Cat2 surge/waves, while its still 200 or so miles away. And there are many people who are not leaving the Galveston area. I guess they think the sea wall will protect them. Not very smart for this particular hurricane. Cat 2 winds with Cat 5 surge/waves.

    An eye has really been trying to form today, but dry air is getting in. It’ll be lucky to make Cat3, but it doesn’t matter anymore. The devastation will be the same either way. May the good Lord spare the fools that have decided to ride it out. Calling them fools may be a bit harsh, but it is a very foolish thing they do, and they will remember it next time(if they are around for a next time).

  49. I don’t know if there is any science to confirm my belief (I’m an old old engineer) that a greater temperature differential between the poles and tropics will tend to produce more violent weather. Are there any studies about this concept—I know the AGW crowd believes the opposite.

  50. I heard that the National Hurricane Center is warning that anyone who does not leave Galveston is facing certain death!

    Is this true? Has anyone ever heard of such a warning from the NHC before? I thought this sounded very strange.

  51. If someone is trying to stick it out in Galveston in a normally constructed one or even possibly two story home or apartment, and some sort of miracle does not happen between now and tonight, yes, they face certain death.

  52. ‘Certain death’ is almost wishful thinking on their part.

    It is possible to ride out a hurricane. You just have to have a structure (e.g. underground fallout shelter)…that can withstand water, wind, and debris.

    100 MPH wind won’t kill you alone…even though holding on to the ground…breathing would be extemely difficult. Imagine going 100 MPH on the freeway and sticking your head out the window. Try breathing then.

    But if breathing doesn’t irritate you enough…you’ve got flying objects to smack you around…or things for you to fly into. Physics can really suck for humans sometimes. But that’s why we’ve got a brain.

  53. I think the mayor there said that 40% of the residents are staying. The 2000 census said there were about 57,000 people there. So I guess that means the NHC and homeland security needs to expect about 23,000 deaths. if that does not happen, I would say it was hype.

  54. Yes, the NHC did issue a statement suggesting certain death if you stayed. Also this morning, sheriff deputies were going door to door in Galveston asking residents to leave. If they were going to stay, they were asked to write their SSN#’s on their arms so they could be identified later. NO JOKE!

    Dry air intrusion from earlier is no more. Ike looks to be intensifying and has a HUGE eye. CAT 3 is looking very possible now. Sometimes hurricanes can intensify rapidly in the hours before landfall. We”ll see how far Ike goes. Either way, this is a very, very bad storm. Increasing wind speeds will just add insult to the injury.

  55. The whole of Galveston could be inundated by a 20 foot storm surge. Most shelters would not suffice.

    Anyone who stays is a fool.

  56. I may be very wrong, but I have a feeling that this “certain death” warning is akin to the exaggerations that the AGW folks spread in order to scare people into doing what their bidding. I hope I am right, otherwise there will be thousands of body bags on the news tomorrow.

  57. A 20 foot storm surge would destroy nearly every house on Galveston island, just like it did in 1900. Most of the city is less than five feet above sea level.

  58. They are saying the surge may top the seawall by several feet. Add 10′ to the top of the waves, 1′ of tide,1′ of rain. People don’t understand that the weakest house on the block is going to break up and hammer the house next to it until it falls apart. After 15 minutes of this you have a raft of splintered wood that will sweep everything before it. Even good houses will fail. You want to be in something high and solid. I’d pick Big Red over any house on the island.

  59. Three little pigs decide to build houses, One builds in straw, one builds in wood and one builds in brick. Along come the big bad wolf called Ike who huffs and puffs——-I’m sure everyone gets the picture.

    Are there any brick houses in Galveston that are built 20 + feet above the potential flood plain? If not, it sounds like there will be many Darwin awards in the next hours. What words in the sentence “Leave Galveston of die” do these silly citizens not get? Sadly, maybe some people are too stupid to live, but they will still die regretted by someone. Let us hope the storm surge does not arrive.

  60. Already reports of people on their roofs in Galveston area. Some tying themselves together. There’s no way to get to them.They will be riding this storm out were they are.

    How sad. They were told and did not listen.

  61. brian, tht aviation visible is very good. you can click through it and see the eye and storm getting worse over a matter of 40 minutes with more organization

  62. Joe Bastardi is on Fox News explaining that this is not the type of storm surge that we are used to. It will be magnified by the concurrent high tide, the very shallow shelf and the way that the shoreline to the north is funneling the wind int the bay. I hope he is very wrong.

  63. Fresh water is the most important thing.

    There will be no electricty to run the water plants.

    The sea water will contaminate the fresh water.

    Fullup your bathtubs and what ever else you can with fresh water.

    Good luck to all, because Houston and Texas is in for a bumpy 12 hours. Buckle your seat belts and hold on tight.

    It is too late to get off the ride now.

    Good luck!

  64. Those that have stayed with children. You can expect this. A quote from a weather forum.

    “A family of six stayed in Surfside (south of Galveston), they had them on the morning news when the flooding started. They just said they had to rescue them via CG helicopter. When they got to dry land the parents were arrested for child endangerment.”

  65. I just read an article that suggests that the bay side surge may be higher than the Gulf side published 3 hours ago. The bay side has no seawall … That would wash away the apartment I lived in 20 years ago. It will live on in a Google street view. A sort of electronic ghost town. How strange.

    http://www.livescience.com/environment/080911-ike-storm-surge.html

    I hate to say it, but what we are watching unfold may be the worst case scenario.

  66. Peerreviewer,

    Yeah, that’s a good site for sat images. It updates every couple minutes or so. With landfall expected sometime during the overnight, Ike has more time to strengthen, if it chooses.

  67. Actually it is still not too late to leave… the causeway will be open til 11 pm, and any car can outrun that thing… if you leave early enough. I would say you better get off the island NOW…

  68. Look… if it’s a 20′ storm surge it is definitely survivable. If NHC knew what Bastardi knows, that the storm surge would be greatly amplified by geology and tides, then they should have told the people making decisions to stay or go. If the storm surge turns out to be double what was predicted…
    God help Galveston.

  69. This is the time of the Book of. Life roll call.

    The Big book is opened and the Great One takes a look to see who is granted another year.

    Our Good deeds and our bad actions all will be judged.

    If those who stay make it through this challenge they may very well be granted another year to live and tell about their experience.

    It is time for the book of life to be opened.

  70. This storm surge is not a typical “hurricane” storm surge – i.e. it is not a small spike of elevated water near the eye. It is more akin to what accompanies big North Sea storms. Think “slow tsunami.” The dome of elevated water currently stretches from NoLA to Galveston and is slowly shifting west. Presently there is still a 10 foot surge in the right rear quadrant, over 200 miles from the eye. Most people just don’t get it. This is a freak storm.

  71. And another thing is the waves on top of the surge. Your looking at 20-30ft waves on top of the 15-20+ft surge. When Ike hit Cuba, water was up to 50ft high in some areas with the surge and waves. Just incredible.

  72. Just read that Galveston police are asking those who stay to write their name in permanent black marker on an arm……!

  73. No doubt Galverston is going to get it. I’ve been there; flat. The ocean will roll over it. My concern is the precautions taken by the refineries in Texas City.

    Here in Canada, gas has gone up 13-15 cents due to this not every strong hurricane; and Canada is a net oil exporter!!!!

  74. It looks like the storm surge in Galveston was about 18 to 20 feet. I feel better about the prospects of those who decided to remain on the island. I think the NHC’s warning of certain death will turn out to have been an exaggeration for effect.

  75. Not as bad as predicted. Tide gauges in Galveston. Essentially all of the houses in Galveston are two stories tall or higher.

    Eagle Point: 10.14 feet
    Pier 21: 10.69 feet
    Pleasure Pier 9.19 feet
    Freeport: 5.44 feet

    The tide levels appear slightly lower than forecast and underscore the fact that a strike on Galveston Island’s east end produced a lower overall surge across the island. Forecasters now say the maximum tide in Galveston Island was probably 15 feet or less.
    http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/ike_slamming_in.html

  76. Thank you Perry, but I am only able to use a hand held computer right now so some things I am not able to get.

    I would imagine that the damage is wife spread.

    They will be places that have less damage than others.

    The thing of it is, this storm is still very strong. It is not finished yet.

    There is Baytown and other areas that will suffer much damage yet.

    I wonder if the underground tunnel from baytown to the other side is still functional.

    There is a lot of bay in the area other than Galvesto

  77. According to the map which shows the projected path of Ike, its not supposed to get to Michigan until Sunday. But we’re already feeling the effects of it… at the gas pump. Prices went up 30-40 cents per gallon over night. Nuts! :-(

  78. Well, you know, things can get out of hand sometimes.

    Afterall it is the good ole south.

    It comes with the territory.

    Just like in the winter blizzards, there is usually a baby boom following a harsh winter.

    You understand, it is the wild, wild west type of story.

    You know what I mean?

  79. In the UK, I’ve been following the shocking Ike story for 20 hours courtesy of ABC13 live video. Using http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&tab=wl&q=Alvin%20county%20texas I was able to view The Mermaid Restaurant and Hooters on Seawall Blvd as they used to be. Now they are completely destroyed, which isn’t surprising as they were built out beyond the seawall.

    As for the boats moored at Galveston, reports are showing many are totally wrecked. There are suggestions of fatalities on Point Bolivar. Not good.

  80. I’m concerned that we have not heard of the loss of life. The old saying, when something sounds too good to be true, it usually is. It sounds too good to be true that they have not recoverd anyone yet. That is a lot of people.

    I’m worried.

    I have seen some news clippings, they have been brief, with very few people being seen.

    Where is everyone that stayed?

  81. Oh, I dunno. With 9-11 and Katrina we had immediate and greatly exaggerated estimates right off the top.

    I would risk a guess that there has been almost no loss of life.

  82. I think this is more evidence that extreme weather kills many more people in poor nations than it does in the rich nations.
    It also shows that free people are not as stupid as big daddy government.
    The NHC said “certain death if you stay”, the people said “we have done this before, we know what we are doing”.
    Some commentator said, “This event says more about the people of Texas than it does about Ike.
    We must continue helping the rest of the world to become rich.

    This also shows the importance of adaptation, can you imagine anyone believing we could have stopped Ike?

  83. Gas prices have taken a 13 cent per litre hike today over on Vancouver Island. That’s Slightly over $5.65 per US gallon from $5.14 in the past six hours. Someone’s getting rich off this.

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