Ike Track

This is a “sticky” post that remains at top so that you can watch the progess of Ike. Click images for full size or the link below them for an animated loop.

Click for loop Click for radar loop  Click for loop Click for full size

UPDATE:

Latest Buoy Observations near Hurricane Ike

Zoomable map of Ike Radar loop of Ike

Galveston Hurricane of 1900

http://www.1900storm.com/

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2000/galveston/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#galveston

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Mike Bryant

Cool sticky post. Here is a site that shows the “spaghetti” computer projections.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
I was thinking how much these would diverge in 100 years. Of course the GCMs are much more accurate.

Bobby Lane

Yeah, it makes one wonder. The NHC always cautions people not to pay too much heed to the 3-5 day projections. There are so many variables it is difficult to forecast accurately where a storm will go and how intense it will be at that time. This then begs the question of how we are supposedly able to forecast for decades or centuries the temperature of globe, which is an even more complicated process given the factors that go into it. I think the reality is that we cannot at this time, and the ‘forecasts’ are being used for political purposes. I know that is not shocking to anyone who reads this blog reguarly.

Mike Bryant

The disclaimer at the bottom of the hurricane “spaghetti” graph…
“If ANYTHING on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product.”
Maybe the IPCC should include a similsr disclaimer on their products.

I like their attitude. If you click on the “additional information” link you get additional disclaimers:
These scatter plots are intended for use by individuals with proper training and expertise.
There are multiple potential causes of misinterpretation that include, but are not limited to, the following:
– Each model utilizes different assumptions and different calculations which leads to different models performing better in different situations.
– All models have unique biases.
– Some models utilize statistics, some utilize physics formulas, some utilize a combination of both.
– Some models perform best with weaker systems, others perform best with well-developed, purely tropical systems.
– The spread of the various model solutions can give a sense of the uncertainty associated with a particular storm track. However, some of the models are interrelated as they share the same initial analyses or the same global forecast fields. Therefore, clustering of model solutions does not necessarily indicate truely independent agreement.
– Poor model analyses of initial conditions can lead to even worse model solutions.
– The National Hurricane Center has access to many other models and data not included in these products. At times, these other models and data have a significant impact on the forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center.
– Further information on some of the models used by the National Hurricane Center can be found at the National Hurricane Center website, the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters website, and the Hurricane Research Division website.

Mike Bryant

It appears that every model missed the slight jog north.

Brian D

When this storm gets stronger and the central dense overcast gets a lot bigger and better organized, it’ll respond very easily to the upper level environment. I think high pressure will be NE of it by this time(48hrs or so) with a trough moving in from the NW. It’ll feel that trough and start moving a little more NW. I’m thinking Galveston area landfall as a Cat 3 or weak 4. But , because this thing is getting so big, it’ll affect huge amounts of real estate on the western Gulf with strong tropical/hurricane force winds, and also the tornadoes.

Everyone in Houston and just south needs to be careful here. Landfall will be in this area, and as the days go by, the NHC will move the forecast cone there. The only reason they aren’t doing it now is for continuity with previous forecasts and to see what the ingestion of new data into the 00z model runs look like. The trends are ominous. Also, one should expect explosive deepening tomorrow, and a cat 4 by day’s end is not out of the question. Ike’s structure and the local environment are screaming for rapid intensification beyond the next 8 hours time period.
Now you know

RBerteig

Does anyone archive the model runs and produce a map showing actual track along with the spaghetti?
I do like the style of presentation of both the spaghetti plots and the bent ice-cream-code that Anthony links to at the top, but have always wondered idly about winding time back to compare actual path with predictions….

Mike Bryant

Ok, I want to play to. I will guess it hits north of Houston. I say cat 2 by end of day tomorrow.
Disclaimer:
I know absolutely nothing about hurricane forecasting. If anything in this product confuses you, please ignore it.

Mike Bryant

Has anyone seen Josephine? Maybe we’ll get lucky and Ike will meet up with some wind shear.

Tom in Florida

RBerteig.
Unlike IPCC climate models, hurricane spaghetti models have a shelf life of 6 hours at most. These models are dependent on the information of the current conditions that appear to have an immediate effect on the storm. As those conditions change, the models change to reflect what the updated conditions tend to forcast. We all know that these models will change over time. As one who lives on the coast of central southwest Florida, I start watching the model forcasts early even though I know they are going to change. I have a steady checklist of things I need to do as a storm approaches. I use the models as a time & degree of danger table rather than a set in stone prediction. These models dictate what I am going to do and when I am going to do it.

Brian D

It didn’t take long for the eye structure to reform after leaving Cuba. As Emeril says “BAM”! If I lived on the TX coast, I’d be packing and finding another place to go for a while.

Pete

I predict a hypercane!
Many know this as a special class of hurricane that feeds off the sucrose that is absorbed after passing over sugar cane fields.
Hypercanes have a gestation period of several days when the sucrose is digested by a bacteria whose dormant cycle is awoken by the low pressure in the eye-wall of a hurricane. The bacteria become “hyper” when exposed to sucrose. Current research has proven that Anthropogenic CO2 is a catalyst for the sucrose digestion.
After several days of gestation, the bacteria near the surface of the water are attracted to those on the opposite side of the wall and this attraction causes the eye wall to close at the surface. The hurricane now has formed the classic hyper cane configuration, in which the lower portion of the cane forms a large bowl shape which detaches from the surface. The hyper cane becomes especially unpredictable as it tends to bounce and the path cannot be predicted using traditional tracking models.
What is most frightening is that with a doubling of CO2, the hypercanes will have enough bounce to overcome gravity and be ejected from the atmoshpere.

Mike Bryant

The Weather Channel is showing the predicted landfall between the borders of Texas. Well I have my evacuation plan, but I hope they are wrong.

Brian D

Pete,
LOL LOL LOL

Mike Bryant

Ha, that hypercane is probably a Category 10 CO2. Could it be the human race’s entree to the Galaxial Council?

Mike Bryant

Bill Nye the science guy, on The Weather Channel has changed CO2, to CO2 pollution whenever he speaks of it.

@Mike Bryant
Thankfully, he no longer has a children’s science TV show, otherwise I would have to proclaim this yet another example of childhood indoctrination!

Tucker (15:57:03) :

The trends are ominous. Also, one should expect explosive deepening tomorrow, and a cat 4 by day’s end is not out of the question. Ike’s structure and the local environment are screaming for rapid intensification beyond the next 8 hours time period.

We’ll see. The water vapor image shows some dry air where the storm is heading tomorrow, so that may slow down development for a while. Other than that, it’s a good looking storm.

Jeff Alberts

Dee Norris wrote:

Thankfully, he no longer has a children’s science TV show, otherwise I would have to proclaim this yet another example of childhood indoctrination!

He’s got a show on Planet Puke, er, Green, which seems to be geared toward idiots.

mccall

As I recall watching the Ike models over time (even before this thread), the XTRP (black triangle) model has been doing quite well at predictive tracking…

Mr Watts,
Until you present a fourth image of Loop Current with the surrounding temperatures the three ones visible on your site are kinda worthless.
Regards

old construction worker

‘Bill Nye the science guy, on The Weather Channel has changed CO2, to CO2 pollution whenever he speaks of it.’
Just one of the reasons why I no longer use TWC as a source.

McCall,
XTRP is simply an extrapolation of current motion. It is not a model. Many people mention it sarcastically, so if you were doing so, then nevermind. Also, CLP model is really just an historical model. I really have no idea why they even show it.

Ric Werme,
True enough. It only takes one negative variable to upset the apple cart of intensification. The inner core is so tight that I’m not sure the dry air will have a great impact, but you could certainly be correct. At this time, it appears to be on the threshold of taking off strength-wise. I agree that shear becomes a bigger player over time. Even if Ike were to reach a cat 5 (which I am not predicting btw), I don’t believe it hits TX higher than cat 3. That’s strong enough though.

Cat 4, Corpus Christi, Thursday.
My first go at hurricanes.

Mike Bryant

Seems like the eye is invisible like Hanna’s.

BigJim

This storm will get about 1/10 the coverage of Gustav since it will miss “[Snip – pejorative for New Orleans]”.

Mike Bryant (04:41:09) :
Seems like the eye is invisible like Hanna’s.
That’s covered by “Central Dense Overcast.” If I were me, I’d suggest that it’s a sign the storm is suffering from dry air ingestion, but I might also wait until a visible light image was available.
All the best hurricanes have a tight clear eye. The water vapor loop showed the eye fade over the last several hours, it had looked pretty good after leaving Cuba.
The latest image (1145UT) may show the CDO clearing.

Gary Gulrud

“It appears that every model missed the slight jog north.”
I don’t pretend to know how this thing is being directed by the patterns around it but the loops don’t make it appear headed west of Galveston.

Mike86

Here’s an interesting site for seeing the different forecast models:
http://www.stormpulse.com/
Just click the “forecasting On” radio button. The page provides distances to major cities and other info as well.
Now if there was just a way of having the historic forecasts display/update and comparing them to the actual track as the storm advances. I’m assuming someone does that for a living, but it’d be interesting to see them update on screen.
Anyone know if there’s an historic accuracy rating for the different forecasting models?

Bill P

RE: a hypercane!
“Many know this as a special class of hurricane that feeds off the sucrose that is absorbed after passing over sugar cane fields…”
I had some middle school students who were like this the day after Halloween – very scary.

Looks like Houston is now Bulls-eye for Ike. Plot hours 60 and 66 on a map and see where it is!! It may even creep a little more right than this, but Ike should make landfall near Houston vicinity.
ATTENTION…NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10
DISCLAIMER … THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

Loop Current images for Ike hurricane:
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Sea Height Anomaly
Depth 26.C Isotherm
Sea Surface Temperature
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html
Plus a lot of images in one place:
http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/
Regards

Pete

Bill Nye identifying CO2 as a pollutant gives me pause. He seems generally informed on science. Is there a root cause that is not cognitive dissonance or some conspiracy variant?
Perhaps the root cause is that many scientists don’t grasp the problems with modeling because it is a specialized discipline and thus not widely understood. Therefore, these folks should be open to changing their view if it can be explained to them clearly….

Mike Bryant

Anthony,
Thanks for showing more of the posts, now if you could show more of the most recent comments, that would be really fine.
Plus I bet it would make your numbers go up even more.
Thanks,
Mike

Pete (16:32:30) :

Bill Nye identifying CO2 as a pollutant gives me pause. He seems generally informed on science. Is there a root cause that is not cognitive dissonance or some conspiracy variant?
Perhaps the root cause is that many scientists don’t grasp the problems with modeling because it is a specialized discipline and thus not widely understood. Therefore, these folks should be open to changing their view if it can be explained to them clearly….

I think Nye is completely obsessed on the green “end” of the spectrum.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/10/bill-nye-ed-begley-compet_n_111834.html

Mike Bryant

Mike Bryant (18:25:58) :
Ok, I want to play to. I will guess it hits north of Houston. I say cat 2 by end of day tomorrow.
Disclaimer:
I know absolutely nothing about hurricane forecasting. If anything in this product confuses you, please ignore it.
OK, I got the CAT 2 correct. Now hoping for north of Houston. I live between Houston and Corpus Christi, very close to Port Lavaca.

Caleb

Houston, we have a problem…

Mike Pickett

Here is a cool “toy” to play with when storms and hurricanes develop:
StormPulse
If you put your mouse on a city it gives you the distance from the
hurricane. Two sad anomalies: 1) You can expand it world-wide, but it
doesn’t show other storm systems (or things are pretty dead) 2) It
depicts the Arctic Ocean as all broken up and circumnavigable.
But it IS a cool toy…great graphics on someone’s part.

Steve

Question for those who might know:
I’ve been checking the models regularly, (and not just for Ike), and the XTRP model seems to be munged up. It’s good at drawing nothing but straight lines, and has been doing so for about a month…maybe longer. What’s going on?

Bob D.

Mike86,
You can plot storm positions vs. the forecasts for those positions at
http://dss.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/datasets/tcplot
It’s still a work in progress, and forecast comparison plots are only available for the N. Atlantic for 2008 right now.
I’m working on back-filling to 1995 the forecast data for N. Atlantic and Eastern N. Pacific cyclones. When that is done, all forecast data will be available for plotting and download.

Bill P

What happened to Josephine?

Brian D

For those living on the central and northern TX coast, even the SW Louisiana coast,you really need to leave. This storm is already showing characteristics of a stronger storm than it’s Cat rating. It’s wind field is bigger than Katrina’s already and is forecast to intensify even more.
Here’s some important info. This comes from Jeff Masters blog at Weather Underground.
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike’s storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina’s. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike’s surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This “Integrated Kinetic Energy” was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane’s storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale. At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.
“Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds–275 miles–and in it radius of hurricane force winds–115 miles. For comparison, Katrina’s tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike’s huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961”
Please LEAVE, and tell family and friends to LEAVE this area. This thing is BIG. DO NOT GO BY THE CAT RATING ALONE. Again, it is showing higher rating characteristics and is forecast to slowly intensify.
Best to be safe than sorry.

Brian D,
Great advice. In the last half hour, it is believed that Ike finally completed its eye wall replacement cycle that may have been the longest in history. In that time, it strengthened mightily, but the inner structure has prevented the winds from increasing above cat 2. However, if indeed it has completed its cycle, we may be lucky in that Ike’s winds will increase and alert everyone to the monster that he really is. Ike is so much more dangerous than Katrina ever was because he seems not to be as powerful. As your article concludes, he has the largest potential energy of any hurricane in the last 40 years. That says a LOT.
Storm surge is going to kill a lot of people here. Early indications place it on par with Carla and the 1900 hurricane

Brian D

I would like to to share a quote from a post on a weather forum.
As a nurse, and past Fl. resident, and worked relief after all the storms from Andrew to Wilma.
This is not a test. If you live through the storm you will then be faced with two weeks or more without power. That means, no water, no A/c, no medical services, no ATM, no gas can be pumped no stores open, and stink all around you with no sanitation available. It is beyond miserable. You will get dehydrated and probably get dysentery because you can’t keep clean. All it takes is your dirty hand to your mouth one time. Your sick, with no one to help.
The storm surge is going to be amazing and the power behind all that moving water will leave nothing standing, the 100 mph winds between tall buildings will double in strength. Do not even consider staying if you live in the CONE OF FEAR! Get out, and get out now. If you have people you know in the area, call them and BEG them to leave. Even if you’re wrong, give them permission to laugh at you for the rest of your lives. I can’t express enough concern here.
This is really serious stuff. Not only will the storms wrath be ugly, but it’ll be bad in the aftermath as well. Please just leave.

blcjr

Let’s pray for the folks along the Texas Gulf Coast. This one is headed my way, but I live far enough inland (central AR) that I’m not usually worried about myself, or family that live here. But I have family in Texas, and my son’s in-laws are in Beaumont. I’m hoping they sit this out up in Dallas with my son.
I was surprised that the current forecast has Ike still at tropical storm levels when it exits Texas and moves into Arkansas. That means we’re likely to see even stronger winds than we saw with Gustav. But for us, the real worry of these things is always the potential flooding from torrential rains. We got 8-11 inches here locally out of Gustav. If Ike is as bad as it is looking to be, and comes into Arkansas the way the latest track has it, we could be in for even more. I’ve got my waders ready at the back door.

Basil,
Given the dispersed structure and resultant large wind field, I would certainly believe you will see tropical storm force winds in AR. It will take a while for Ike to wind down, IMHO.

Ike Cometh…
While it is appropriate today to spend as much time as possible in reflection and thoughts on what happened seven years ago over Shanksville, PA, at the Pentagon and in New York City, it is also important to note a disaster pending in the Gulf of Mex…..

KW

Man it’s growing big…