Cascade snowpack decline? Weather patterns – not global warming

“TEN YEARS AGO IT WAS EASY TO FIND SCIENTIFIC REPORTS WITH CONFIDENT CLAIMS THAT LINKED A SHRINKING SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHWEST TO GLOBAL WARMING. YOU COULD EVEN FIND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS IN SOME OF THEM. TODAY THE DISCUSSION IS MORE NUANCED, AND SCIENTISTS TRY TO KEEP POLICY OUT OF THEIR PAPERS.”
Change is in the air….How Refreshing! 🙂

There’s always more than one cause to one effect.

Leon – when they retire (or are “retired”).

Giselle (01:57:17) :
“Ice melts only when heat increases right..?”
Yes and no. Glaciers do not change size only due to changes in temperature. There is sublimation and decreased precipitation as a cause for shrinking glaciers or snowcover also.
Just check the ice cubes in your freezer and how they shrink in size over time allthough the temperature is -18C in there.

Giselle: Temperature isn’t the only consideration. For example, glaciers recede at altitudes where the temperature never rises above freezing.
The rates at which ice and snow melt vary due to many reasons. These include changes in albedo (reflectivity), and this can vary due to natural influences such as snow algae (red snow) or due to anthropogenic influences such as black soot. Solar irradiance varies naturally, and this impacts many factors. There’s also a process called ablation, in which solar irradiance causes the ice to flash directly to steam, bypassing the liquid phase. Snowfall also varies due to natural oscillations in sea surface temperature, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. If it snows less but the natural rate of decline in snowpack or ice remains constant, the glaciers would recede.
Hope that helps.

Sorry Leon. Shout out to you, too.

Giselle:
Glaciers melt and glaciers grow, it depends on where they are and on what time of year one measures. In the Cascade Mountains of western North America, some glaciers are melting more than they are growing. These are in the majority and make the news as signs of global warming. In fact this has been occurring at a relatively steady rate since the late 1800’s, a half century before humans began contributing significant CO2 to atmosphere.
In recent years some scientists have reported that short term trends of snow pack in Cascade Mountains indicate that global warming is to blame for less snow falling and earlier melting of what falls. They have further claimed that this trend is alarming and will lead to water shortages in the near future.
The recent studies by well respected climate scientists at the University of Washington have revealed that earlier claims were based on a selective review of the data available (looking only at post 1950 data).
By looking at all the data available, particularly to data sets encompassing an entire cycle of the PDO, it can be demonstrated that snow pack is cyclical with greater quantities associated with cold phases of the PDO and lesser quantities associated with warm phases of the PDO. It additionally shows that there is no discernible trend either up or down.
Allegations of cherry picking of snow pack data have been the subject of several news articles over the past few years. It all started when the Assistant State Climatologist (of Washington State) pointed out in emails to academic colleagues that the State Climatologist was ignoring the long term data in favor of the more alarming trends that can be reported from post 1950 data.
The alarming data was used by local and state politicians to support calls for a host of climate policies and the Assistant Climatologist was fired (he still kept his academic job). Millions of state and local tax dollars have been spent as a result of these claims. The claims are still be used by the politicians to drum up support for climate spending.
So far no one is calling for firing the State Climatologist. He has not apologized either.

Giselle, do you have web addresses for snowpack data sites? It’s better to follow the data and decide for yourself than depend on the media reports of disappearing snow. Last year, snow and glaciers piled up high. And it hasn’t melted off. There is still left over stuff that will be added to this winter. Check out the data for yourself and stay away from “If it bleeds, it leads” media stories.

Sooo, if the snowpack in the Cascades hasn’t changed appreciably in the last 30 years, why the need for a study as to why it was declining, when it wasn’t declining???

Current (as of August 28th) Oregon snow precipitation totals averages out to be mostly above the historical average (1960’s to 90’s) for each snowpack area.
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/or.txt

Anthony,
Likely, it is time for another thread on the Arctic ice. I believe that it is fair to say that melt levels in the last few weeks have exceeded the hopes of skeptics. Given past threads on this subject, I think it would be balanced to acknowledge this development.

One has to wonder what the Arctic ice coverage was while the Vikings were raising cattle on Greenland.
And what did the Polar bears do to survive that time period?
By the way, spoke with a hunter/guide type last January about what was going on up in the Hudson Bay area. He has been up there for about 27 years. I asked what has changed.
“Ice comes off earlier in the Spring. Returns later in the Fall. Polar bears coming inland to feed on caribou.”
So, the Polar bear is adaptable enough to try some turf food when the shushi bars shut down?
Bears are nothing if not adaptable.