Note: UK atmospheric scientist John Kettley, is formerly of the Met Office and the Fluid Dynamics Department at the Bracknell headquarters.
JOHN KETTLEY: Awful August has delayed this year’s harvest but global warming is not to blame
Last updated at 3:21 AM on 24th August 2008
Atrocious: The terrible August weather has delayed the harvest but global warming is not to blame
Atrocious weather has seriously delayed the harvest this year – by now oil seed rape, barley and oats should already have been gathered.
The delay could mean either a loss in yield or drop in quality, with a subsequent fall in income for farmers for the second year running.
But this is not a symptom of so-called ‘global warming’.
These conditions are not unique and are more like the poor August weather Britain saw during the Twenties and Sixties.
It is more likely a stark reminder that the warming trend we recorded in the last part of the 20th Century has now stalled. Globally, 1998 remains the warmest of the last 150 years.
Of course, we have seen very hot months in the UK recently, but we should be under no illusion about global warming.
We are not suddenly about to be catapulted towards a Mediterranean climate. We are surrounded by water, with the vast Atlantic Ocean to our west, while the jet stream and gulf stream will forever influence our daily weather and long-term climate.
So, this year’s Sixties-style August has seen bad weather in many places.
Northern Ireland suffered particularly from serious flooding last weekend, but it has been the cumulative affect of cool, wet and dull conditions which has really hampered farmers’ progress.
For every loser there are always winners.
Lerwick in Shetland has largely stayed north of the rain-bearing jet stream and in the past week alone saw almost 40 hours of sunshine.
Further south, mainland Scotland was not so blessed, as storms brought 2in (50mm) of heavy rain to many places, including Edinburgh, on Wednesday and Thursday.
There will be more rain for the west of Scotland in the next few days, but at long last much of the country can look forward to a change in fortune.
Late August should see warm picnic weather – which I think will last through September, in line with recent years.
Is the tide turning ?
There is a lot of kicking and screaming to come no doubt.
Not to mention the screaming they will do when we kick them.
As Ali might have said, the worm squirms when the burn turns.
The “high-amplitude” flow pattern is typical of negative-phase NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and, if it continues into winter, suggests frequent episodes of “blocking” – large high-pressure systems that “block” the storm track, tending to keep the UK under entrenched Scandinavian or even Siberian cold air for extended periods.
If the NAO is flipping, can the AMO be far behind? (And what’s the deal with the NPO and IPO? They’re supposed to follow PDO, right?)
BTW, U4H, stick around.
You might even change your mind like a lot of (if not most of) the folks around here.
Mr Bob B said (15:38:20) :
“Anthony–did you see this?”
http://www.quantcast.com/profile/traffic-compare?domain0=climatecrisis.net&domain1=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&domain2=&domain3=&domain4=
I’m not sure we can trust that graph, it does seem to be shaped somewhat like a hockey stick.
You will either be dropped from the mix or adjusted upward.
Thank goodness. It was getting chilly.
Anything, in any direction may be attributed to man, so we must send them money!
You know how the indulgence biz works. “Further sins require further expense.”
All of you cold, northern hemisphere people should emigrate to Aust as, according to our government (see http://www.climatechange.gov.au/science/faq/question2.html) we are heading for even more high temps. Note that they are still stating ‘Eleven of the past 12 years were the warmest we have experienced since around 1860’ and ‘average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were likely to have been the highest in at least the past 1300 years’. So you are all wrong – you only THINK you are cold.
You can maybe work in the new mines we are opening to export our ‘dirty’ coal and uranium to other countries where they will use it to increase the CO2 level while we, in our self-deprecating manner, will embrace a carbon tax to offset our 1.4% of the man-made CO2 contribution.
@aussie john
Its not likely that its the warmest in 1300 years, there are many reports that contradict that,
what is certain is that that it has beens very cold the last 3 million years, it cooled over 10 degrees C and the last million years are the coldest. (15 milion years ago it was localy 20 degrees warmer in antarctica)
Ice on the poles is unique in the history of the earth (less than 1% off the time), also the last (eemian) interglacial 120 Kyears ago was at least 3 degrees (c) warmer than this interglacial.
So yeah it actually is Cold..
The term ‘Climate Change’ was until recently used to describe ‘Natural Warming’ over time… and ‘Global Warming’ was used to describe Human caused warming (AGW= Anthropogenic Global Warming). The term ‘Climate Change’ has been hijacked by the AGW’ers. And it makes me smile when I get described as a ‘Climate Change Denier’, Why??? because climate change is the very thing that I (and many scientists) KNOW happens time and time again over timescales of hundreds, thousands, and millions of years. The climate changes… that is what is does…I for one do not deny this fact
So has anyone planned for what will happen if we get climate change to cold instead of warming??…. The sun may well be doing something ‘odd’ at this time, and some solar astronomers are starting to make ‘noises’ about it. The sun has gone very ‘quiet’ and quite a few solar astronomers are concerned that the sun may be entering a new ‘low’ period of activity (grand minimum) which may last a long time.
The sun went quiet during the ‘maunder’ solar minimum. This was during a period known as the little Ice age (LIA) starting some 400 years ago tail ending about 1850. (1850 is the year AGW’ers start their warming graphs from ! ) Over the past 10000 years (since the last Ice age proper), there have been many times when the temperature was lower than now and times when it was at least as high if not higher. This was obviously not caused by Co2…( no cars back then). So whatever mechanism caused these climate changes is ‘natural ‘ and so is still there, ‘lurking’ in the background. If this does happen ( and some think it has already started ) It will be a disaster far greater than the worst warming predictions.
The thing is that the ‘sunspots cycles’ fit the observed temperature changes better than Co2 .However even if the mechanism for the correlation linking sunspots and the world climate has not been found . It is evident that there must be one, and the Solar cycle/cosmic rays/cloud cover is the best bet so far. But as I say even if this theory does not pan out THERE has to be a connection waiting to be found.
There were almost no sunspots on the sun between 1650 and 1700 (and very few for hundred years either side). This was the ‘maunder’ minimum. during this time the temperature of the world plummeted. From about 1600 to 1840 sunspot cycles 5 and 6 were also very ‘low’ this was the ‘Dalton’ minimum and again the world temp dropped. Then cycle 20 in the early 1970’s was ‘low’ this corresponds to the 1970’s ‘ice age scare’. The period covered by last few cycles are referred to by astronomers as ‘the modern (temperature) Maximum..(as I say this is by astronomers… not climatologists). And the temp has indeed gone up in the latter 20th century. Sunspot cycle 23 has still not yet ended and shows signs of not doing so until perhaps next year.. and the Worlds temp has INDEED dropped again..the next nearest similar cycle was 200 years ago. IF the Sun is indeed to the main factor in Global warming (and cooling)…and IF we were heading for another cold period then removing Co2 from the atmosphere (at great cost) could therefore make things worse. We can live with warm. …but millions may suffer and die if we get years/decades of extended cold…all forms of transport snowed to a halt, power/gas outages, crop failures, food/water shortages, disease, and maybe war …not good!! ….William Herschel (astronomer) In 1801 noted that when there are few spots on the sun the price of wheat goes up…. Well the price of wheat has gone up..and so has the price of lots of other foods, and there have been food riots in some 25 countries recently. Millions of tons of food have been destroyed by cold/frost… There has been no global warming for almost 10 years….1998 being the most recent warmest year. All this will turn out to be caused by the Sun…the Sun drives the climate as it always has, and the temp. goes up and down…and even some climatologists are now saying we should expect the current cooling to continue for ‘at least’ another 10-30 years…..This does not fit AGW theory . Bring back warm!!!
Paul (Devon)
As a scientist and fellow Devonian, I agree with you entirely. I’m watching the sunspots. Bring back a bit of warmth into our lives after the last couple of dreadful summers. I have a good stock of timber dried and ready for use in my wood-burner. I just hope it doesn’t run out faster than I can cut it and dry it.
Phillip
“If the NAO is flipping, can the AMO be far behind?”
This could be the start of the “Perfect Storm”, where the globe sees a La Nina, negative NAO and a weakening positive AMO. However, somewhere in the world, there will be an adjustment in the long wave upper wind pattern where the amplitude of a corresponding warm ridge forms to compensate for the formation of deep upper level cold lows (sub-polar vortex). Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi calls this the signalling of teleconnections.
If both NAmerica and Europe suffer through a frigid, wet winter some place will see a comensating warm, dry winter. Guess which areas will get the attention? Austrailia could see a scorchingly hot dry Dec-Feb. Warm artic SSTs could remain bottled up for the next several years. The Alarmists continue thier fixation on polar ice as it is thier only game in town for them.
Aussie John (19:39:55) wrote: “All of you cold, northern hemisphere people should emigrate to Aust as, according to our government we are heading for even more high temps. ”
Interesting article… it completly left out the MWP and the LIA. It’s obvious the agenda driven Dragon Lady has her imprint on the government run media.
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
The MSM/politicians excel at spinning things 180 deg w/o a blink. Whatever the weather does, it’ll be pinned on something that can be regulated by the STATE.
If CO2 were scientifically acquited of warming effects and it warms, man-made ozone would be next in line. Next, methane, and so on. If it cools, aerosols will be blamed.
The problem with the MSM promoting something that has not taken place or at least does not behave like what they think (i.e. CO2 induced global warming) is that it does not give a chance for the farmers to plan for the years to come. Here too in the Fraser Valley in BC, Canada we had a very crappy Spring and cool summer. We now have Fall weather in August. You can see that the corn fields are way too small and that the harvest will be very poor if any. I’ve seen some farmers plowing their fields in the middle of summer to try and plant something else that might give them some results.
If they would stop telling people that it will get warmer and instead giving them the real forcast, the farmers could use other methods and other seeds to get the crops they (and we) need.
“Hopefully the Azores High will make an appearance towards the end of the month – I’ll have my ice cream then.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html
Looks as if it could be on its way.
To quote the song from A Tribe of Toffs…
John Kettley is a weatherman, a weatherman, a weatherman,
John Kettley is a weatherman…
And so is Michael Fish!
Michael Fish – famous for getting a forecast completely wrong http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLUxsmADWrA&feature=related
Michael Fish DID NOT get the forcast “completely wrong”. It was NOT a hurricane! The only bit he got wrong was to say that most of the strong winds would be down into Spain and France.
Definition of a hurricane http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hurricane
Noun
a severe, often destructive storm, esp. a tropical cyclone [Spanish huracán]
Collins Essential English Dictionary 2nd Edition 2006 © HarperCollins Publishers 2004, 2006
From the report 4 times bigger than a hurricane and recorded wind speeds over 100mph and the words used in the earlier forecast were a bit breezy in the Channel and the Eastern side of the country – you could call that typical British understatement
Oldjim (14:25:32) :
It appears you’ve gotten what you paid for in that dictionary. I’m not all that familiar with that storm, but the fronts attached to it, and the latitude, strongly suggest it was an extratropical cyclone. Hurricanes have a warm core from aid descending in the core and are powered by vertical temperature differences. Extratropical cyclones are powered by horizontal temperature differences.
The “eye” of the storm is interesting. Extratropical storms aren’t supposed to to have them, but they show up from time to time on really strong nor’easters in New England. They are the subject of some study, but have not been investigated by hurricane hunter planes. I suspect they may represent a point where the wind is blowing so fast that the center of the storm can’t suck it into the real center. Which is pretty much like a hurricane eye.
Hurricanes transform into extratropical storms as they pass over cooler water or join up with a frontal boundary. When that happens, the wind and rain field spreads out, so comments about the storm being 4X the size of a hurricane also suggest it wasn’t a hurricane. That it had hurricane force winds doesn’t make a it a hurricane.
On the other hand, nor’easters can be quite devastating. My grandparents had an old house on Long Beach Island, NJ that survived several hurricanes in the 1950s but was knocked over in a nor’easter in March 1962. That storm cut the island in three places and it was never quite the same again.
Sorry to be so pedantic, but this is a _science_ blog.
Global warming is a hoax. Read this carefully and then try to explain it to a Politician or Weather Person.
http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/gwhoaxborn.pdf