At first, when I got an email message pointing out this topic of global warming driving more earthquake energy, I thought it was satire. Then I saw it was on CBS News, so I knew it couldn’t be satire, but something else altogether. I’ll leave deciding what that is up to you the reader.
Today’s Quakes Deadlier Than In Past
Study: Seismic Activity 5 Times More Energetic Than 20 Years Ago Because Of Global Warming
June 18th full story is here
New research compiled by Australian scientist Dr. Tom Chalko shows that global seismic activity on Earth is now five times more energetic than it was just 20 years ago.
Excerpt:
“The most serious environmental danger we face on Earth may not be climate change, but rapidly and systematically increasing seismic, tectonic and volcanic activity,” said Dr. Chalko.
“Increase in the annual energy of earthquakes is the strongest symptom yet of planetary overheating. “
In related news:
Energy release from earthquakes may be up since 1990, but it is still below levels early in the 1900s; see the graph from this page:
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/other/quake1.html
Source data: USGS
Click for a larger image
Estimated total annual earthquake energy release (magnitude 8 earthquake = 1 = 1,000 magnitude 6 earthquakes) in red; 7-year average in grey.
Click for a larger image
Annual earthquake death rate per million population in red; smoothed rates in grey (specifically, linear smoothing with 7-year Hann window). Note logarithmic scale.
UPDATE: I resisted my primal urges of expression on this subject, figuring others with such skills would take care of that for me. Strangely, I now find myself in my first ever agreement with BigCityLib, on this issue.
UPDATE2: Junkscience.com reports that Hansen’s modeling may be the impetus for this idea:
We’ve probably had enough fun at Chalko’s expense but should point out his ‘research’ is based on totally flawed model output from none other than Hansen himself. Remember the infamous “smoking gun” release? In Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications Hansen, et al, state: “Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years.” This is the source of Chalko’s “NASA measurements from space confirm that Earth as a whole absorbs at least 0.85 Megawatt per square kilometer more energy from the Sun than it is able to radiate back to space. This ‘thermal imbalance’ means that heat generated in the planetary interior cannot escape and that the planetary interior must overheat. Increase in seismic, tectonic and volcanic activities is an unavoidable consequence of the observed thermal imbalance of the planet” Unfortunately for Tom, they aren’t “NASA measurements from space” but Hansen’s crappy model output and it’s quite wrong.
When the “Energy Imbalance” paper was written the model output was a fair wiggle-fit with Willis (2004) and Levitus (2004). Like all happy accidents, however, this good thing came to an end, too. We’ll let Professor Roger Pielke, Sr., do the honors:
The Correction To The Lyman Et Al 2006 Paper Is Available – The correction to the Lyman et al paper “Recent cooling of the upper ocean” is available. It is “Correction to ‘Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean’” by Josh K. Willis, John M. Lyman, Gregory C. Johnson and John Gilson. While this correction eliminates the cooling that they reported in the 2006 paper, the warming of the 1990s and very early 2000s has not continued. This absence of global ocean warming (which is consistent with the absence of a significant global average sea surface temperature anomaly trend for the last few years) is a challenge to the modelers and to the conclusions of the IPCC with respect to the ability to skillfully predict global warming. Indeed, it appears that with respect to the challenge on Climate Science of A Litmus Test For Global Warming – A Much Overdue Requirement, the models have failed so far. (Climate Science)
UPDATE UPDATE!
AS OF 11:20AM PST 6/19/08 CBS NEWS HAS PULLED THE STORY! The link no longer works!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/18/tech/main4191556.shtml
Here is proof however of it’s existence, a small screen cap. Did anyone make any larger ones?
MORE: Associated Press (AP) has also pulled the story:
“Eventually, someone will say that global warming is the fault of our current school system and we will be dealing in teacher trades, not carbon trades.”
I am willing to trade much of our current herd of teachers for some good carbon…..
I just talked to the AP and they said CBS slapped their name on the story and that it isn’t theirs and that they are going to tell CBS to take AP’s name off the story, and that
they didn’t know about this at all until I told them.
dennis ward (07:42:27) :
The article you link to doesn’t say anything about “global warming” or attribution to global warming. There’s mention of the Artic Oscillation, and positive feedbacks worsening the situation. But there is no reason, certainly none in the article, that would indicate that this is anything but “natural climate variability.”
“dennis ward (07:42:27) :
Meanwhile the arctic ice is melting faster, despite global warming ‘allegedly’ ending in 1998 and low solar activity.”
There we have it. Conclusive proof. Melting arctic ice is not caused by global warming. I’m glad we cleared that up. I now declare the debate closed.
You don’t have to adhere to every crackpot theory supporting it to believe in global warming
Really? So despite being presented with published scientific proof, and mentioned on the world’s biggest TV news channel, AGWers still refuse to believe it? So they are just a bunch of deniers? They probably think the Earth is flat too etc etc etc
If Global Warming can simultaneously make the Earth hotter and colder, and kill off the Lock Ness Monster, why can’t it cause earthquakes?
I guess AGW really is a religion then, and believers can pick and choose whichever bits they want to believe in so as not inconvenience themselves too much while still claiming to ‘believe’.
Anyone who falls for this ruse has not studied the nature of heat flow in the Earth’s crust. It’s net outward, into space. While a measurably warmer lower atmosphere might ever so slightly reduce the flux, it’s impact would be too little to measure. If anything, warmer plates would move somewhat from the elastic end of the spectrum to the plastic end, which would mean less, not more, earthquake energy. But again, the actual effect is minuscule and so, in fact, no effect at all.
It’s amazing that some so called Earth Scientists have never worked with a Mohr Diagram.
Does warming cause quakes?
This does sound half-baked.
But when Big Al walks by
the ground surely shakes.
Wish I could say I’m surprised, but I heard the same rubbish being bandied about right after the 2004 tsunami. The link is no longer available to the original Discovery Channel article, but here is a quote from it:
The Discovery Channel website posted an article on Wednesday, explaining that “global warming” is one of the “four causes of tsunamis” and quoting tsunami scientist Neal Driscoll from the University of California at San Diego.
“Even global warming could theoretically play a role in weakening undersea slopes if frozen gas hydrates locked in deep-sea slopes are warmed enough to shift from solid to gas state,” stated Driscoll. “That shift of the abundant deep-sea deposits could bloat slopes with gas and cause them to collapse, sending tsunami-generating pulses all the way to the surface,” the Discovery Channel article explained.
Yeah, this from a .8 degree change in average global temperature.
Even if all the uranium in the core were to be magically concentrated at the center of the earth, it still wouldn’t be enough to cause a chain reaction. Only a tiny percentage of uranium atoms are of the isotopes that are unstable. At worst, in such a situation, the core might start producing a little more heat.
yes, It was just coincidence that seismic activity increased during the warming of the 1990s, I agree, the earthquake shadow” theory makes more sense.
http://pandiopa.wordpress.com/
This kinda brings up a question I had. We are constantly monitoring air and water temps at various heights/depths, but has anyone looked at checking earth temps, like 10, 50 or 100ft or further below ground. Granted it would be the smallest portion of the areas that are being measured (entire earth is sorouned by air and 2/3’s covered in water). But it might show where some of the missing heat is going to some extent. Just a random thought basically.
I remember someone trying to pin the ’06 tsunami on all the bombs that were dropped in Iraq and Afghanistan.
You don’t have to adhere to every crackpot theory supporting it to believe in global warming any more than you have to believe in every crackpot theory that challenges it.
Unfortunately, dennis, it turns out that AGW itself is a crackpot theory. Those who still believe it are either 1) ignorant 2) idiots, or 3) frauds.
Anyone with a modicum of intelligence can do their own research and see that the hypothesis of AGW is completely false.
This reminds me of a news item earlier this year about the possibility of global warming causing the Earth’s rotation to slow (according to researchers at the Belgian Royal Observatory).
And indeed another news item last year about the possibility of global warming causing the Earth’s rotation to speed up (according to researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany).
I’m starting to think that the only solution to global warming is Superman. He alone has the strength to correct the Earth’s rotation (whichever way GW has damaged it), and then dive down through the Earth’s mantle to mend its GW-induced tectonic injuries.
Where is Superman, in our hour of need? 😀
You don’t have to adhere to every crackpot theory supporting it to believe in global warming
——————-
But it sure helps.
I like how the alarmists love to declare that one factor, out of millions, is the only one that matters, and constitutes absolute proof of their theory.
OK, so the arctic did melt a little more than average last year. At the same time the Antarctic is setting records for the amount of ice.
No no no.
The earthquakes are caused by Exxon Mobile. We’ve pumped all of the oil out of the ground and now it’s hollow, fragile, and collapsing. We just happened to be burning the oil and causing the oceans to boil at the same time.
/sarc
Folks , just remember that an idea is not responsible for the people who believe in it. Yes this Chalko person is a nutbar. And yes, the news outlets that uncritically published his ravings should be slapped on the wrist.
But in the discussion of what is the reality regarding climate, he is no more than a (fairly ridiculous) diversion. He does not really add anything useful one way or the other.
Mind you, if you meet somebody in a week or a year who thinks the A in AGW is proved by increased earthquakes, you can quickly mark him as a flake.
“Where is Superman, in our hour of need?” Alexjc38
Alex,
He moved to China. He left the Hulk in charge.
Anyone with a modicum of intelligence can do their own research and see that the hypothesis of AGW is completely false.
Pray tell, what is the hypothesis of AGW and what specific points do you think falsify it?
The earthquake story certainly helps AGW with a boost to jump that shark even a little more quickly than it is already doing…..
All kidding aside, the cause and effect should be switched around. Active undersea volcanoes found north of Fiji : http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080619093259.htm Compare with the consistent warm equatorial anomoly at 100-300 m depth at a similar latitude. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
Connected? Perhaps. Has there been an ocean current study done here?
CBS just yanked the story off their site after the AP complained to them that they
didn’t write it.
Gone. No explanation from CBS. Just gone.
Earlier in his life Dr Chalko used to be a writer for the Monty Python productions. Give him credit for his twisted sense of humor.
The article at cbsnews appears to have been removed. I get a ‘The page cannot be found’ now. It worked a few minutes ago.