OpenAI Urges US Government to Fund 100GW of New Energy Per Year to Beat China

Essay by Eric Worrall

“… China is outstripping America in constructing new capacity, adding 429 GW in 2024 compared with just 51 GW achieved by the land of the free. …”

OpenAI tells Trump to build more power plants or China wins the AI arms race

‘Electrons are the new oil,’ ChatGPT maker claims, demanding 100 GW per year

Dan Robinson 
Tue 28 Oct 2025  // 17:20 UTC

OpenAI wants the Trump administration to build 100 gigawatts of additional electricity generation capacity per annum to avoid the US being overtaken by China in the AI arms race.

The highly-valued generative AI biz says electricity is “a strategic asset” critical to building the AI infrastructure that will secure US leadership on “the most consequential technology since electricity itself.”

However, China is outstripping America in constructing new capacity, adding 429 GW in 2024 compared with just 51 GW achieved by the land of the free.

“We believe the Trump Administration should work with the private sector on an ambitious national project to build 100 gigawatts a year of new energy capacity,” OpenAI says.

In related news, Google signed a deal with NextEra Energy to restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold Energy Center, the state’s only nuclear plant. Once operational — expected in early 2029 — Google will purchase power from the 615 MW facility as a carbon-free energy source for its cloud and AI infrastructure. The company says the move may also strengthen local grid reliability.

Read more: https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/28/openai_100gw_power_demand/

This is nothing short of a Silicon Valley capitulation to the MAGA agenda. To save their skins, big tech traded their climate virtue for continued global relevance.

The remnants of their former green allegiance are still showing through, for now at least they are restarting old nuclear plants when they can, and flinging money at speculative nuclear fusion startups, rather than focusing all their resources on coal and gas. But fusion is still decades away, and they are running out of old nuclear plants to recommission.

As Facebook’s recent commissioning of a new 2GW gas plant demonstrates, access to affordable energy is now more important to big tech than climate virtue.

One thing is clear, we are now in a new winner takes all AI cold war with China, with battle fronts in commerce, industry, political influence and military technology. The AI Military Industrial Complex is rapidly dominating the global agenda. The green movement is finished, along with any political party or group which promotes green virtue over easy access to cheap energy.

For years big tech social media gatekeepers punished conservatives and climate skeptics, and did their best to bury any narrative which undermined radical left wing causes like climate action, but for now that situation is reversed. Big tech needs us to secure their affordable energy supply lines. I can’t imagine big tech search and social media allowing the rise of any narrative which impedes their dash for energy, which they desperately need to fend off Asian AI rivals.

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Scarecrow Repair
October 28, 2025 10:05 pm

Hot or cold — subsidize it or choke it — what a stupid way to do anything. The best way is to just get out of the way. Unfortunately, because 2029 continued support isn’t guaranteed, no private business wants to take the risk, so they come begging to Uncle Sugar.

What a mess. Government makes a mess of everything it touches.

Reply to  Scarecrow Repair
October 28, 2025 11:36 pm

So true

MarkW
Reply to  Scarecrow Repair
October 29, 2025 6:16 am

Not just everything it touches, but everything it thinks about touching. As you point out, the mere fact that the next Democrat administration might resume the resume the effort to ban fossil fuels is enough to keep sane people from investing in the industry.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Scarecrow Repair
October 29, 2025 8:47 am

I’m from the government and I am here to help.

Run away! Run away! Run away!

Bryan A
October 28, 2025 10:31 pm

You can’t run AI on intermittent Wind and Solar … and China knows that which is why they began installing 94GW of Coal in 2024. The US, through the Obama/Biden years, has been neutered on reliable FF energy and forced to install unreliable Wind and Solar (which doesn’t work for AI and China knows it). No Coal, No Nuclear and little Gas which offers the reliability AI needs. The only way for the US to outstrip China in the AI game is to install far more reliable FF generation AND Nuclear Generation.

Reply to  Bryan A
October 29, 2025 4:14 am

Ask Germany 😁🤗
If Germany may have some lack of electricity, they just built up some new windmills, or solar panels.
So AI and Germany is an oxymoron, same as NI (natural intelligence) and Gernany. QED 😂🤣

Nick Stokes
October 28, 2025 10:32 pm

However, China is outstripping America in constructing new capacity, adding 429 GW in 2024″

Yes. But Google tells me how they did it:

“In 2024, China’s new energy generation was overwhelmingly dominated by solar and wind power, which together accounted for 83% of the record-breaking 429 GW of new capacity added to the grid.”

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 28, 2025 10:50 pm

Eric,
Your article is telling us that China is outstripping US in power addition, and thus threatens to overtake the US in the AI arms race. Here (source) is more detail on what they did to create that danger:

comment image

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 5:29 am

If Renewables are “All That” then why is China adding another 94GW of Coal Capacity this year?
?
In short, they Firm Up unreliable generation with reliable Coal.

Reply to  Bryan A
October 29, 2025 3:38 pm

And that 94GW of coal will almost certain produce more usable electricity, when needed, that all that wasted wind and solar capacity.

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 5:40 am

In 2024 the US consumed 4,101TWh of electricity while China consumed 9,852TWh more than twice the US production and emitted 32% Global CO2 emission load. In 2025 China is set to emit more than 34% of total global emissions. Why is the biggest emitter treated as a Climate Hero while the rest of the developed nations are expected to genuflect to them as Climate Subjugates?

MarkW
Reply to  Bryan A
October 29, 2025 6:19 am

Socialist CO2 good.
Capitalist CO2 bad.

Bryan A
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2025 2:09 pm

OMG I forgot all about that particular point of fact.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 6:31 am

China also built a city no one lives in, and a virus that was supposed to empty more. It is not surprising they waste resources on other things that don’t work.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 7:01 am

How much electricity did each of these sources produce?

Bryan A
Reply to  wilpost
October 29, 2025 2:10 pm

Hmmm, I wonder what percentage of their Nameplate was achieved by source.
They may have installed 277GW of Solar but it won’t produce more than 54-55GW per hour for 4 hours a day. Solar requires MASSIVE over building to stand a chance of producing anything near 100% of combined nameplate of 20% of installed capacity

Reply to  wilpost
October 29, 2025 4:23 pm

Oil, gas, coal provide almost 80% of all electricity to China

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 8:52 am

Climate Energy Finance Org. does not sound like an energy / engineering / science organization.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 12:28 pm

Fossil fuels FAR out perform wind and solar in China

2024 wind and solar were still below 10% of China’s energy supply

Coal above 50%

China-energy
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 29, 2025 4:22 am

I just try to imagine, what AI answers at sunset, ‘I’ll give you the answer tomorrow after sunrise, I’m just out of power in 5 minutes’

Erik Magnuson
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 28, 2025 11:04 pm

When capacity factor is taken into, the newly added conventional generation will likely generate as much energy per year as the the newly added wind and solar.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Erik Magnuson
October 29, 2025 12:48 am

Then the Chinese are not such a threat?

They know about capacity factor.

MarkW
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 6:20 am

Or they are just putting out numbers for the useful idiots to run with.

Ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2025 9:20 am

One of those useful idiots is posting on this site today.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2025 1:14 pm

It was WUWT that quoted the 429 GW figure, saying that it threatens to leave the US behind in the AI race. I just point out whta the components are.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 3:36 pm

As you have shown, a large proportion of the 429GW is totally useless for AI.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 12:44 pm

You can’t do this with wind and solar….

china-at-night
Erik Magnuson
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 12:47 pm

My comment had nothing to do with whether the Chinese are or are not a threat. My point was when dealing with intermittent sources of electric power the amount of electrical energy generated by intermittent vs dispatchable generation will be quite different than what is suggested by installed nameplate capacity.

One could use wind/solar to power AI servers if one is willing to power down the servers during dark and windless periods. That would involve buying more processors to get the same throughput.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Erik Magnuson
October 30, 2025 8:17 pm

My point was …”

Then take it up with WUWT. They cited the 429 GW figure, to say that China threatened to overtake the US in AI. I just point out the components of that figure.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 3:56 pm

Then the Chinese are not such a threat?

In what way do you think a nation of over a billion people comprises a “threat”? Why are you scared?

Bryan A
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 30, 2025 5:28 am

If THAT needs to be explained to you, you’ll never see or choose to
believe it!

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Bryan A
October 30, 2025 6:24 am

If THAT needs to be explained to you, you’ll never see or choose to believe it!

So you’ve just realised you don’t know why you’re scared, is that it? Ignorant, gullible – or just stupid?

Bryan A
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 30, 2025 10:16 am

Do you look in the Mirror much?
Or simply suffer from Psychological Projection??

Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 30, 2025 8:44 am

Communism is the threat. Over 100 million people murdered as “a threat to the collective” in 100 years.

It really doesn’t get more threatening than that.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  doonman
October 30, 2025 4:14 pm

Communism is the threat. Over 100 million people murdered as “a threat to the collective” in 100 years.

If you are terrified of becoming converted to Communism, maybe you embrace National Socialism. The National Socialists in Germany didn’t like Communism, either. They managed to exterminate around 27 Million Russians during World War 2.

Or do you prefer a Government which assassinates, tortures, attempts to overthrow democratically elected governments, murders people in international waters without benefit of trial, supports genocidal governments and dictators, but only manages to exterminate less than half a million people a year internally through allowing preventable medical mistakes to continue unabated?

As Winston Churchill said –

Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’

And life goes on. Live in fear if you wish.

Bryan A
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 30, 2025 8:20 pm

The longest running governments are all Monarchies
Japan since 660 BCE
Britain since 871CE
Norway since 872CE
Denmark since 900CE
Sweden since 970CE

Longest running communist countries
Russia 1917 – 1991 … 74 years
Korea 1948 – now … 77 years
China 1949 – now … 76 years
Viet Nam Rooted in 1945 but officially 1976 – now … (80) 49 years
Cuba 1965 – now … 60 years
Laos 1975 – now … 50 years
25 other countries with Failed Communist Governments
20 former Russian States with failed Communist Governments now independent not Communist
Communism has ultimately failed in 45 of 50 countries where it has been tried.

Constitutional Democratic Republics on the other hand…
San Marino Founded in 301CE and officially constitutional since 1600 … 425 years
United States 1789 – now … 236 years
Switzerland 1848 – now … 177 years
New Zealand 1852 – now … 173 years
And functioning in 72 other countries.

Communism, good or bad, simply hasn’t been made to work anywhere it has been tried and only remains in 5 countries over 80 years while Constitutional Democratic Republics have flourished for over 425 years and function well when Communist states don’t try to interfere.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Bryan A
October 30, 2025 9:27 pm

Republics have flourished for over 425 years . . .

Well, even longer if you include democracies like Ancient Greece and Rome. England flirted with democracy under Cromwell, but came to its senses, and reverted to a monarchy. Not the only one, either.

Seeing that communism is a fairly recent -ism, it’s not altogether surprising that Communist governments (in the Marx-Engels sense), haven’t been around long. Communal living, on the other hand, has existed for thousands of years.

No system “works” indefinitely. The form of government you prefer is a matter of personal choice – like religious faith, or fashion.

As I’ve mentioned before, it’s curious that officially “Communist” China seems to be practising unbridled Capitalism to a degree. There are supposedly more than 1400 billionaires in China, which is not bad, considering that under Mao Tse Tung there were none at all.

Do you think those cunning and devious Orientals stole their money making ideas from poor downtrodden American workers?

Who cares? Not me – I have no desire for anything other than a quiet life, so I’ll stay where I am. China and the US will have to get along without me. I’m sure both countries will manage.

Bryan A
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 31, 2025 5:36 am

It isn’t simply that Communism hasn’t been around long it’s more important that it has Failed 45 out of 50 times it was tried. Currently a 90% failure rate and all in less than 80 years…so far.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 28, 2025 11:45 pm

Hahahagaga…solar/wind on the front lawn, 24/7 coal at maximum output in the backyard…that’s China.

Nick you are truely amongst the most clue and brainless parrot that is out there. I wonder if your own reflection in the mirror shakes it’s head when it sees you…it certainly has more brains than you.

Google’s true name is Foolgle

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  varg
October 29, 2025 8:53 am

Google has an agreement with the UN to promote UN climate articles ahead of everything else. Fact.

2hotel9
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 5:07 am

Yes, little Nikki, China and India are building coal fired electric generation plants faster than anyone else on the planet. Glad you pointed that out. Oh, wait, you just repeated lies, yet again, about windmills and solar.

MarkW
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 6:18 am

At least that is what they publicly claim.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  MarkW
October 30, 2025 10:37 pm

At least that is what they publicly claim.

As opposed to what they claim in secret, I suppose, which you wouldn’t know because it is – secret!

Do you actually bother to think before you start pounding your keyboard? Or are you trying to be humorous on purpose?

D Sandberg
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 29, 2025 5:18 pm

China, over the next 20 years, at current rates is scheduled to add more net nuclear generation than solar. The solar domestic installations died a permanent expansion death June 1, 2025 when feed in tariffs ended. Based on the rate of solar additions for June, July, August and September a reasonable projection for 2026 and beyond for the next 20 years is 100 GW/year x 20% capacity factor=20x100x0.20=40GW. Turn out the (solar) lights, the party is over.

D Sandberg
Reply to  D Sandberg
October 29, 2025 5:25 pm

Copilot

Here’s what the latest data and projections indicate about China’s nuclear power expansion:

Current Status

  • As of late 2025, China operates 58 reactors with a combined capacity of about 56.9 GW, and has 33 reactors under construction totaling 35.4 GW. [world-nuclear.org]

Near-Term Additions

  • The 33 reactors under construction will likely add ~35 GW over the next decade.
  • Additionally, 10 new reactors approved in 2025 are scheduled to start operations around 2030–2031, further boosting capacity. [nuclearbus…atform.com]

Medium- to Long-Term Targets

  • By 2030: China aims for 110 GW of nuclear capacity.
  • By 2035: The target rises to 200 GW.
  • By 2050: Projections range from 400 GW to 500 GW, positioning China as the global leader in nuclear power. [nuclearbus…atform.com]
Reply to  D Sandberg
October 29, 2025 6:59 pm

Now that China have that small modular pebble bed reactor technology working efficiently and safely,

..it is only be a matter of time before they are running a lot of it.

Just use multiples of the one design to get what ever output they want.

October 28, 2025 10:36 pm

China is doing it right in building dozens of nuclear plants, based on American Westinghouse technology, bought at auction by Toshiba and licensed to China. Punitive regulations destroyed the American nuclear power industry. Now, we must build from scratch. The Clintons, among others, were in on this theft, and even sold our uranium in our ground!

Michael Flynn
Reply to  whsmith@wustl.edu
October 28, 2025 11:33 pm

I believe the first nuclear power station connected to a grid was Russian. The first commercial nuclear power station was British.

Maybe the US stole the IP from the Russians or the British? <g>

Much ado about nothing. If you don’t want your IP to be stolen, you should have protected it better. Surely you are smarter than the thieves?

MarkW
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 29, 2025 6:23 am

Fascinating theory you got there. If anything is stolen, it’s your fault for not protecting it better.
You know, the only people I have ever heard spout that philosophy, were all behind bars at the time.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 29, 2025 8:55 am

I will remember your words on reading about the latest data breach.

SxyxS
Reply to  whsmith@wustl.edu
October 29, 2025 3:36 am

The “funny” thing is that those Open AI guys are most likely green AGW fagots,
who, just like google,
would have never ever asked for a single watt of more energy for Americans,
let alone the nuclear way as google does,
but as soon as it is for their own purpose – here they are, pretending they want to outcompete china(ain’t that racist by lefty standards).
They didn’t mind when the manufacturing could not compete with China,
but as soon as it is about a pillar of future globalism they are all in it.
(my guess is they will get what they want as the AI is just 50% of what’s really going on
as the other 50% are for the energy needs of the military industrial complex, but that’s not something people are willing to go along with )

October 28, 2025 10:40 pm

Electricity is not “a strategic asset.” The ability to generate electricity on demand is a strategic asset. That is a very different capability.

Michael Flynn
October 28, 2025 11:24 pm

We believe the Trump Administration should work with the private sector on an ambitious national project to build 100 gigawatts a year of new energy capacity.

Of course they would. “Work with” is a synonym for “subsidise” – the private sector will take the profits, the taxpayers will absorb the losses.

Obviously the AI companies are incompetent, and cannot stay in business without government subsidies. Whatever happened to capitalism and free enterprise?

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 29, 2025 8:57 am

Whatever happened to capitalism and free enterprise?

Clinton-Gore
Obama-Biden
Biden-Harris

Ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 9:33 am

You left out both Bush presidencies. Full conservative in their speeches, full socialist in their programs. The Clinton presidency was actually to the right of the Bush’s, thanks to the leadership of the House led by Gingrich.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Ex-KaliforniaKook
October 29, 2025 10:41 am

Thanks. I need to read up on the war-mongering Bushes.

October 28, 2025 11:36 pm

AI…the next artificial hype and bubble…I would rather focus on the old fashioned brain and hands, those even work if someone “accidentally” trips over the power cord all overated AI is plugged into 😉.

Old fashioned sarcasm

Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 29, 2025 6:26 am

Beside the probably fact, that search engines may use AI, I personally never used AI ’til now. I use my brain, important things are burned in there, and I use my capability of logical thinking.
But as I’m retired I’m not obliged to work somewhere or somewhat. Therefor the need of AI is zero.

Mr.
Reply to  varg
October 29, 2025 5:49 am

“A.I.” is mostly –
“Aggregated Imputations” so far.

Reply to  Mr.
October 29, 2025 4:27 pm

If you limit the sources, then any AI queries are biased to the views of those who limit the sources.

Open AI based on all sources

Mr.
Reply to  wilpost
October 29, 2025 5:46 pm

I’ve only used the ones that are optionally appended to common browsers.
They all seem to give Wikipedia a thorough workout for info / references.
Pass!

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  varg
October 29, 2025 8:59 am

Maybe it would be a good plan to start teaching our kids HOW to think rather than WHAT to think.

October 29, 2025 12:57 am

One thing is clear, we are now in a new winner takes all AI cold war with China,

Let them have it. Let them drink deeply from that poisoned chalice.

October 29, 2025 1:08 am

The green movement is finished,

___________________________

The green movement has a tiger by the tail

     “It is very easy to fool people but difficult to
     convince them that they HAVE been fooled!”    
                                                                Mark Twain

They aren’t going to go quietly into the night.

George Thompson
Reply to  Steve Case
October 29, 2025 4:37 am

But go they will-but not until alot of grief, blackouts, and probably death occurs first…and finally, hopefully, the sheep wake up.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  George Thompson
October 29, 2025 9:00 am

It is easy to manufacture pitch forks and torches…. when the time comes.

Ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 9:47 am

It’s worse than that, of course, as the American civil population is estimated to own half a billion guns.

I may have said that wrong. “It’s better than that….”

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Ex-KaliforniaKook
October 29, 2025 10:42 am

🙂

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Ex-KaliforniaKook
October 29, 2025 4:01 pm

American civil population is estimated to own half a billion guns.

At least one consumer item which is unlikely to have been made in China.They obviously were unable to steal the intellectual property of the American gunmakers.

Bryan A
Reply to  Ex-KaliforniaKook
October 30, 2025 10:19 am

I have a few of those things myself

Bruce Cobb
October 29, 2025 4:57 am

How about firing up coal plants which are now on standby, and used only during emergencies and instead running them full-time, plus re-starting coal plants which are sitting idle, waiting to become expensive grid-destroying solar and battery installations.

2hotel9
October 29, 2025 5:11 am

America needs more renewable energy! Gas, coal, oil, hydro and nuclear are the ONLY renewable energy sources and we need more of all of them.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  2hotel9
October 29, 2025 9:01 am

Nice play on the word renewable, even it it is the according to Oxford. 🙂

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 10:42 am

typo

even if it is not the definition according to Oxford.

2hotel9
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 7:11 pm

They are, in fact, the only renewable energy sources. Oh, and wood, of course. Windmills and solar panels are nothing more than dead end failures.

October 29, 2025 5:33 am

The AI Military Industrial Complex is rapidly dominating the global agenda.

We are on the cusp of Skynet with AI-enhanced killer drones roaming the landscape looking for targets. And some analysts worry we aren’t advancing killer drones fast enough: if we don’t make them by the millions Russia, China and North Korea will.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 29, 2025 12:06 pm

What scares me is those killer drones imbued with artificial intelligence will be directed by politicians imbued with natural stupidity.

MarkW
October 29, 2025 6:14 am

Except for those areas that installed wind and solar, the US is a country that is already electrified. China one the other hand is still largely agrarian and there are large sections that are barely electrified.

Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2025 9:14 am

China ceased to be an agrarian land 20 years ago. Now, the Chinese urban population fraction is approaching that of the USA.

Bruce Cobb
October 29, 2025 6:43 am

The US government shouldn’t subsidize AI, any more than it should be subsidizing Ruinables. The only exception is with coal, due to the fact that the government waged a war on the coal industry, so now it needs to take responsibility for building coal back up again.

October 29, 2025 7:05 am

10 nuclear plants, each with two 1000 MW reactors, each year
10 coal plants, each with three 600 MW units, each year

NEW MINE-MOUTH COAL ELECTRICITY LESS COSTLY, AVAILABLE NOW, NOT PIE IN THE SKY, LIKE EXPENSIVE FUSION AND SMALL MODULAR NUCLEAR  
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/coal-electricity-less-costly-available-now-not-pie-in-the-sky
By Willem Post

It is very easy for coal to compete with wind and solar
In the US, Utilities are forced to buy offshore wind electricity for about 15 cents/kWh. 
That price would have been 30 cents/kWh, if no 50% subsidies.
.
Offshore wind full cost of electricity FCOE = 30 c/kWh + 11 c/kWh = 41 c/kWh, no subsidies
Offshore wind full cost of electricity FCOE = 15 c/kWh + 11 c/kWh = 26 c/kWh, 50% subsidies
The 11 c/kWh is for various measures required by wind and solar; power plant-to-landfill cost basis. 
This compares with 7 c/kWh + 3 c/kWh = 10 c/kWh from existing gas, coal, nuclear, large reservoir hydro plants.
.
Coal gets very little direct subsidies in the US.
Here is an example of the lifetime cost of a coal plant.
The key is running steadily at 90% output for 50 years, on average 
.
Assume mine-mouth coal plant in Wyoming; 1800 MW (three x 600 MW); turnkey-cost $10 b; life 50 y; CF 0.9; no direct subsidies.
Payments to bank, $5 b at 6% for 50 y; $316 million/y x 50 = $15.8 b
Payments to Owner, $5 b at 10% for 50 y; $504 million/y x 50 = $21.2 b
Lifetime production, base-loaded, 1800 x 8766 x 0.9 x 50 = 710,046,000 MWh
.
Wyoming coal, low-sulfur, no CO2 scrubbers needed, at mine-mouth $15/US ton, 8600 Btu/lb, plant efficiency 40%, Btu/ton = 2000 x 8600 = 17.2 million
Lifetime coal use = 710,046,000,000 kWh/y x (3412 Btu/kWh/0.4)/17,200,000 Btu/US ton = 353 million US ton 
Lifetime coal cost = $5.3 billion
.
The Owner can deduct interest on borrowed money, and can depreciate the entire plant over 50 y, or less, which helps him achieve his 10% return on investment.
Those are general government subsidies, indirectly charged to taxpayers and/or added to government debt. 
.
Other costs: 
Fixed O&M (labor, maintenance, insurance, taxes, land lease)
Variable O&M (water, chemicals, lubricants, waste disposal)
Fixed + Variable, newer plants 2 c/kWh, older plants up to 4 c/kWh
.
Year 1 Cost 
O&M = $0.02/kWh x 710,046,000 MWh/50 y x 1000 kWh/MWh = $0.284 b
Coal = $15/US ton x 353 million US ton/50 y = 0.106 b
Bank/Owner = (15.8, Bank + 21.2, Owner)/50 y= 0.740 b
Total = 1.130 b
Revenue = $0.08/kWh x 710,046,000 MWh/50 x 1000 kWh/MWh = $1.136 b
Total revenue equals total cost at about 8 c/kWh
Banks and Owners get 0.74/1.136 = 65% of the project revenues   

For lower electricity cost/kWh, borrow more money, say 70%
Traditional Nuclear has similar economics; life 60 to 80 y; CF 0.9 in the US.
.
For perspective, China used 2204.62/2000 x 4300 = 4740 million US ton in 2024.
China and Germany have multiple ultra-super-critical, USC, coal plants with efficiencies of 45% (LHV), 42% (HHV)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/ultrasupercritical-plant

Reply to  wilpost
October 29, 2025 7:05 pm

Nuclear Plant Construction cost comparisons
.
Recent studies and reports highlight the dramatic cost difference in newly completed projects: 

  • United States: The Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors in Georgia, completed in the 2020s, cost an estimated $15.7 million per MW.
  • China: The Taishan 1 and 2 reactors, completed around the same period, had a cost of about $2.64 million per MW. This translates to a cost roughly five to six times lower than in the U.S. 

.
Historical trends
.
A visualization based on a recent Nature study shows the divergent paths of nuclear construction costs since the 1970s: 

  • US Costs Explode: After the 1979 Three Mile Island accident, increased regulations and a lack of standardized designs drove construction costs upward. The cost curve has continued to climb dramatically since the 1960s.
  • China Reverses Course: In contrast, China’s costs declined by half during the 2000s and have remained largely stable ever since. The country has broken the “cost curse” experienced in the West. 

.
Factors driving the cost difference
.
Several factors contribute to China’s ability to build reactors faster and cheaper: 

  • Standardized designs: China focuses on building a few standardized reactor types repeatedly. This allows for efficiency and minimizes custom, one-off engineering work.
  • State-backed financing: State-owned developers receive low-cost, government-backed loans, which lowers financing costs that can constitute one-third of a project’s total expense.
  • Streamlined regulatory process: China’s centralized government structure ensures a more predictable and stable regulatory environment. This prevents opponents from challenging projects in a way that causes years of delays, a common issue in the West.
  • Domestic supply chains: China has built up a local manufacturing base for nuclear components. This “indigenization” lowers the cost of materials and labor compared to relying on expensive foreign equipment.
  • Construction efficiency: Chinese reactors are assembled in five to six years, about twice as fast as Western projects. This speed reduces the costs associated with lengthy delays and project management issues seen elsewhere
mleskovarsocalrrcom
October 29, 2025 7:46 am

After all the hoopla and selective reporting China still grew their fossil fuel use beyond what the ROW cut back and remain the largest user of fossil fuels in the world and steadily increasing.

October 29, 2025 8:07 am

New adage: Just because it’s AI that doesn’t mean it’s not biased.

Reply to  ToldYouSo
October 29, 2025 8:22 am

Not only biased:

AI and Hallucinations: Why Are So Many Answers Wrong?
It is known that AI hallucinates and makes mistakes. It is also known that AI providers have no solution for the problem. A new study by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) now shows how many answers are simply wrong when it comes to news. According to the study, every third answer from common chatbots contains errors. The reasons for this are varied, but they all have in common that there is currently no solution for them.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  ToldYouSo
October 29, 2025 3:50 pm

Disclaimer for Google AI –

AI responses may include mistakes.

What’s the use of AI, then? Any point in asking what mistakes it’s making?

Reply to  ToldYouSo
October 29, 2025 4:30 pm

All depends on the sources on which AI answers are based

Reply to  wilpost
October 30, 2025 3:48 pm

Maybe, maybe not. If one source says “it’s black” and the other source says “it’s white”, what the AI bot supposed to do? And usually, there’s just different shades of gray.

Of course the answer lies deep within its programming, not to be revealed to the public: why, it just follows it’s programmer(s) BIAS to “distinguish” (hah!) good data from bad data (aka, truth from fiction) because its only other option would be to judge the credibility of different information sources based on the current “popularity” of the various answers . . . and anybody with an IQ above room temperature knows the problems with doing THAT!

Neo
October 29, 2025 8:41 am

It’s amazing how AI came along with its massive energy needs and in a blink they just dropped ‘climate.’

https://x.com/feelsdesperate/status/1983377063789658583

Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 8:46 am

waiting for the other shoe to fall.
aka expect the unexpected

there will be unintended consequences. what those are are not known at this time.

For the record, I support reducing reliance of WTG and WV to niche applications and/or minor supplements to the grid.

Coal, hydrocarbons, hydro-electric, and nuclear are the path forward until new technology provides us with equivalent or better systems.

Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 9:23 am

“what those are are not known at this time.”

Are you talking about those “unknown unknowns”?
— tip of the hat to Donald Rumsfeld

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  ToldYouSo
October 29, 2025 10:44 am

In this case we know there will be unintended consequences, but not what they are.
That is different than unknown unknowns.

Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
October 29, 2025 2:49 pm

It’s apparent that you missed the sarcasm in my post, but by all means please explain the exact meaning of “unknown unknowns” and how those are different from just plain, simple “unknowns”.

Beta Blocker
October 29, 2025 10:05 am

Dan Yurman of the Neutron Bytes nuclear news blog asks the question, what happens if the AI boom is a bust?

OPINION – What Future for SMRs if the AI Boom is a Bubble? (Neutron Bytes, October 19th 2025)

Harping on the topic of what the AI promoters are really up to — what they are actually doing, and why — for me personally, Yurman’s article is another piece of evidence that the big AI data center corporations are locking up access to new-build gas-fired and reactivated nuclear capacity because they believe the electricity itself will become the most valuable product of their investment.

At some point in the future, these AI firms will be selling their access rights to the new-build and reactivated generation capacity at a considerable profit. Or become power marketers themselves, if our electricity regulators allow it.

What about the capital costs of nuclear?

How to reduce the capital cost of nuclear is an exceptionally complex topic. Just how complex that topic can be is explained in this JohnS substack article from January 2025 which looks at costs of building First of a Kind (FOAK) versus Nth of a kind (NOAK) nuclear plants:

How the US can make nuclear energy cheap again (January 2025)

JohnS says in his article:

 “To dramatically lower the cost of building a new reactor design, we have a paradox – we have to build many versions of it, but no one wants to build the next few because the cost will be substantially higher than the NOAK cost. For most products, companies can afford to lose money on their new product until they reach N-th of a kind (NOAK). It’s an expected cost of doing business. But in the case of nuclear energy this cost is too high. “

The claim made by many that simply by eliminating most of the NRC’s regulations, we can substantially reduce the capital cost of nuclear enough to make it competitive with gas-fired generation — that claim is complete nonsense.

Here in the United States, the capital cost for new-build nuclear for both SMR’s and for AP1000-size large reactors is currently running at approximately $18,000 USD per kw. Capital cost for new-build gas-fired generation is now running at $2,000 to $2,500 USD per kw. 

Recent cost studies claim that the capital cost of nuclear for both SMR’s and for the large AP1000-size reactors can eventually be reduced to $7,000 per kw, maybe even less than that. But only if somewhere between ten and twenty firm orders for each reactor type are on the books so that production volumes can reduce unit costs for the various subsystems needed for each reactor type.

A socialized approach to constructing and operating nuclear energy, as was implemented in France in the late 1970’s, is a total anathema to free market energy advocates.

IMHO, only the federal and state governments have the financial resources needed to place an initial ten or twenty firm orders for each reactor type with the reactor vendors, either SMR-size or AP1000-size.

Which means that reestablishing the nuclear construction industrial base in the US at its most efficient production rate is strictly a public policy decision which will require a socialized energy market approach to building additional nuclear capacity.

Bob
October 29, 2025 1:31 pm

Slow down. I don’t put much stock in big tech talk, just a year or two ago big tech was pushing wind, solar and storage. How did that work out? The US should build the generating facilities that we need but only ones that work. Wind, solar and storage don’t work, stop pissing away our time, money and resources on stuff that doesn’t work. Big tech has lots of money, they need to put their money where their mouth is. One more thing name plate is meaningless, wind and solar have showed us that, the thing that matters is how much energy will actually be produced. I wouldn’t care if China built thousands of gigawatts of generation so long as it was wind, solar and storage. Can’t think of a better country to waste their time, money and resources away than China. Go for it boys.

October 29, 2025 5:54 pm

Just why should the Government be building power plants? Can’t private industry, or regulated utilities do it, and do it better? Why, oh why, is it always assumed that the Government has to do things?

Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 30, 2025 8:52 am

Because government is now your mommy and daddy, dictating your morals and just waiting to provide you with more stuff.