California’s Unprecedented Mega-Permadrought

Hydrological Drought, as opposed to Meteorological Drought, is the deus ex machina of California drought mongers

I grew up in California. Since the mid 1970’s the phrase “but the drought’s not over” became so repetitive in state government and media communications that it was a running joke for more than four decades between my brother and I, until he finally passed away. This drumbeat began long before “Climate Change” or “Global Warming” became widespread issues of concern. The corollary to “but the drought’s not over” was the proclamation by government and media every single late spring or early summer that:

“Because we had X winter, it’s going to a bad fire season”

X could be dry: dehydrated conditions susceptible to easy ignition.

X could be wet: Overgrowth of brush will turbocharge fires with excessive fuel.

Here’s the conditions today vs. three years ago. Use the slider to see the difference.

April-9th-2024-copy-1
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ComparisonSlider.aspx

Now Let’s take a walk through a decade of endless drought caterwauling.

Click here to go directly to a full overview of current conditions in California and skip the walk through the past decade.

National Geographic, February 13th 2014

Two years into California’s drought, Donald Galleano’s grapevines are scorched shrubs, their charcoal-colored stems and gnarled roots displaying not a lick of life. “I’ve never seen anything like this,” says Galleano, 61, the third-generation owner of a 300-acre vineyard in Mira Loma, California, that bears his name. “It’s so dry … There’s been no measurable amount of rain.”

California is experiencing its worst drought since record-keeping began in the mid 19th century, and scientists say this may be just the beginning. B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California at Berkeley, thinks that California needs to brace itself for a megadrought—one that could last for 200 years or more.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/140213-california-drought-record-agriculture-pdo-climate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 2nd 2015

We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1422385112

Of course who would quickly to appear to write about and emphasize the study noted above?

National Library of Medicine/PNAS, March 23rd 2015

Diffenbaugh et al. (2) seem to solve that mystery in their latest assessment. As noted earlier in Fig. 1, recent years haven’t just been hot and they haven’t just been dry: they’ve been very hot and very dry at the same time. Climate change appears to be

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4386383/

Diffenbaugh et al. now add weight to the accumulating evidence that anthropogenic climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of drought in California.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4386383/

increasing the likelihood of a large-scale atmospheric pattern that yields warm, dry weather in California. That’s a double whammy when it comes to the hydrological balance that governs drought: less precipitation and more evaporation and transpiration, at the same time. Combined with the role that temperature plays in increasing the loss of water from agriculture, soils, surface water bodies, and snowpack, the authors note that 100% of the moderately dry years between 1995 and 2014 co-occurred with a positive temperature anomaly. Diffenbaugh et al. (2) note:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4386383/

NOAA/Climate.gov, August 4th, 2016

Several recent studies have found that drought conditions in California have become increasingly more intense and longer-lasting (footnote 3). Some of our research has linked this tendency to the combination of strong ENSO events and global warming (Yoon et al. 2015). We’ve found that strong ENSO events modulate California’s climate not only through the peak of El Niño and La Niña, but also their transition phases when they dissipate, and before another El Niño or La Niña potentially forms.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/long-arm-california-drought

Of course, the rains returned for a couple of years, tamping down the doom casting a bit.

Weather.com, January 12th, 2017

The snow and rain that have pummeled California in recent days have helped to eliminate the drought in parts of northern California.

According to the Drought Monitor analysis released Thursday, all of northern California north of Interstate 80 is now free of drought. 

If this active storm pattern continues through the next couple of months, substantial drought relief is possible. But it will likely take multiple near to above-average wet seasons to completely replenish reservoirs and ground water and to end the state’s multi-year drought.

https://weather.com/climate-weather/drought/news/california-snow-rain-early-january-2017-impact-drought

But remember, it’s California AND THE DROUGHT’S NOT OVER!

Wired, January 22nd, 2017

Even in a wet year in California, nature’s bounty of water is no longer enough to satisfy all the state’s demands, recharge overdrafted grou ndwater basins in the San Joaquin valley, or overcome the massive deficits suffered by California’s ecosystems and endangered fisheries. Far more water has been claimed on paper than can ever be reliably and consistently delivered to users. If the most straightforward definition of drought is the simple mismatch between the amounts of water nature provides and the amounts of water that humans and the environment demand, California is in a permanent drought.

Not long after the above article we had the Oroville Dam Crisis.

In February 2017, heavy rainfall damaged Oroville Dam‘s main and emergency spillways, prompting the evacuation of more than 180,000 people living downstream along the Feather River and the relocation of a fish hatchery.

Heavy rainfall during the 2017 California floods damaged the main spillway on February 7, so the California Department of Water Resources stopped the spillway flow to assess the damage and contemplate its next steps. The rain eventually raised the lake level until it flowed over the emergency spillway, even after the damaged main spillway was reopened. As water flowed over the emergency spillway, headward erosion threatened to undermine and collapse the concrete weir, which could have sent a 30-foot (10 m) wall of water into the Feather River below and flooded communities downstream. No collapse occurred, but the water further damaged the main spillway and eroded the bare slope of the emergency spillway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam_crisis

AccuWeather, January 29th, 2018

“You can trace this multi-year drought back to 2011,” Andrews said.

Despite plenty of rain and snowfall last winter, which ended the state’s five-year drought, it wasn’t enough to keep drought conditions from quickly coming back.

Over 54 percent of California is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, while just over 12 percent of the state is under moderate drought conditions, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

“That is very worrisome for the region’s water supply and fire danger,” Andrews warned.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/persistent-dryness-worrisome-for-southern-california-as-drought-water-supply-shortage-issues-loom/352613

Bloomberg , January 17, 2019

California’s wildfire season used to last a few months. Now the state burns all year.

Global warming has intensified California’s cyclical droughts, leaving the land riddled with pockets of dry brush that persist even amid winter rains.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/california-fires-burn-all-year-as-drought-left-state-a-tinderbox

Science, April 17th, 2020

A trend of warming and drying

Global warming has pushed what would have been a moderate drought in southwestern North America into megadrought territory. Williams et al. used a combination of hydrological modeling and tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to show that the period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest 19-year span since the late 1500s and the second driest since 800 CE (see the Perspective by Stahle). This appears to be just the beginning of a more extreme trend toward megadrought as global warming continues.

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.aaz9600

The Guardian, January 7th, 2021

A creeping trend

Drought is not unnatural for California. Its climate is predisposed to wet years interspersed among dry ones. But the climate crisis and rising temperatures are compounding these natural variations, turning cyclical changes into crises.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/07/california-drought-oregon-west-climate-change

CAL MATTERS, May 18th 2021

In his 1952 novel, East of Eden, John Steinbeck depicted the yin and yang of California’s water cycle in the Salinas Valley where he grew up, how the bounty of the wet years drove out memories of the dry, until, predictably,  the water wheel came back around. “And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.”

But droughts and water shortages are more of a persistent way of life now in California than a mere cycle. The rare has become the routine.

Of all the lessons the state should learn, this might be the most valuable: “There’s never enough water in California,” the Pacific Institute’s Gleick said. “We have to assume that we are always water-short and we have to act like it.”

https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/05/unprepared-california-drought-2021-lessons-learned/
https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/05/unprepared-california-drought-2021-lessons-learned

Yale Climate Connections,  June 8th, 2021

Changing climate is supercharging southwestern droughts

According to the 2020 study in Science cited earlier, human-caused climate change made southwestern drought conditions between 2000 and 2018 about 46% more intense than they would have been naturally, “pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst [U.S. southwest] megadroughts since 800 CE,” the heyday of the Mayan civilization.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/california-americas-garden-is-drying-out

CAL MATTERS, September 28th 2022

Conditions are shaping up to be a “recipe for drought”: a La Niña climate pattern plus warm temperatures in the Western Tropical Pacific that could mean critical rain and snowstorms miss California, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and The Nature Conservancy. 

“One thing that is unfortunately becoming easier to anticipate are warmer than average conditions due to climate change,” Swain said. 

https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/09/california-drought-likely-to-continue/

Then rainy winters return.

BUT THE DROUGHT’S NOT OVER!

NPR March, 23rd 2023

California’s groundwater drought is still bad

When California’s reservoirs declined, many cities and farmers turned to another water source: vast aquifers underground.

In drought years, groundwater has supplied up to 60% of California’s water. But the pumping has been largely unregulated. So over the decades, water levels have fallen dramatically in California’s aquifers. Before this winter, some groundwater wells were at the lowest points ever recorded. That’s because in the Central Valley, groundwater hasn’t been replenished after previous droughts.

“Groundwater is the dark matter of the hydrologic cycle,” says Graham Fogg, professor emeritus of hydrogeology at the University of California Davis. “The fact that these are such huge volumes of water allows them to take a lot of abuse and to be depleted year after year.”

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/23/1165378214/3-reasons-why-californias-drought-isnt-really-over-despite-all-the-rain

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/23/1165378214/3-reasons-why-californias-drought-isnt-really-over-despite-all-the-rain

Then finally, some “experts” admit it’s wet.

Accuweather, March 4th 2024

In the wake of a biblical blizzard that unloaded nearly 100 inches of snow on California, AccuWeather is making a major announcement: California will be free of widespread drought through at least 2025.

“The combination of the abundance of rain and snow from the winter of 2022-2023, the state of the reservoirs, and what has happened this winter gives a high confidence that drought conditions will remain absent in California well into 2025,” AccuWeather California Weather Expert Ken Clark said.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/california-to-stay-drought-free-through-2025-following-2-winters-of-epic-storms-accuweather-experts-say/1627328

Current California Conditions

Taking another look at the current USDM map of California

April-9th-2024-copy-1
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ComparisonSlider.aspx

I’ve been watching this for the last month or two and the producers of this map are having trouble letting go of those little bits of yellow. They are clinging for dear life. It might surprise readers to know that this map is a subjective judgement, not an objective measure.

The map is made by people, not computers

The USDM map provides a “snapshot” of current conditions. Authors build upon the previous week’s map, identifying areas that might have changed in response to recent weather patterns. They bring together the physical climate, weather and hydrology data and reconcile that with local expert feedback, impact reports and conditions observations. The author is also responsible for weighing different indicators based on what’s most appropriate for a particular place and time of year. In the West, for example, winter snowpack has a stronger bearing on water supplies than in the East.

To determine drought intensity, USDM authors use a convergence of evidence approach, blending objective physical indicators with insight from local experts, condition observations and reports of drought impacts. It is this combination of the best available data, local observations and experts’ judgment that make the U.S. Drought Monitor more versatile than other drought measures. Learn more with our convergence of evidence tutorial.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/WhatistheUSDM.aspx

Because there is no blue, purple, or green indications on the Drought Monitor for excessively wet conditions, even if all of California was flooded, the most this map would ever show is white. It does not give an objective centered overview of the water state of the state.

The Current Snow Water Equivalent

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is defined as the depth of water that would result if the entire snowpack was melted. It represents the amount of liquid water contained within the snowpack, regardless of the actual depth or density of the snow. The significance of SWE is that it provides a standardized measure of the water content in snow, which is crucial for several water resource management. SWE data is used by water managers to estimate spring runoff and plan for water supply, irrigation, and hydropower generation.

And here is the current SWE for California. Not a record, but still 112% of average

The Current State of California Reservoirs

The Hydrological Conditions

Hydrological Drought, as opposed to Meteorological Drought, (precipitation below normal) is the deus ex machina of drought mongers as noted in one of the above article quotes.

Hydrological Drought is defined by deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies, such as low stream flows, reduced reservoir and lake levels, and declining groundwater tables. Hydrological Drought lags meteorological drought as it takes time for precipitation deficiencies to manifest in the water supply. In this way, poor water management can lead to a permanent crying of drought, for example when Central Valley farmers are forced to over-pump because the state sends water out to sea for environmental justifications.

In a series of strongly worded letters, nearly a dozen legislators — many from drought-starved agriculture regions of the Central Valley —have implored state and federal officials to relax environmental pumping restrictions that are limiting the amount of water captured from the delta.

“When Mother Nature blesses us with rain, we need to save the water, instead of dumping it into the ocean,” Assemblymember Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) wrote in a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-01-20/anger-flares-as-california-stormwater-washes-out-to-sea

Nevertheless, two years of solid rain and snow have had a huge effect on the groundwater conditions in California, despite farmers being forced to rely on wells for decades due to the water policies of the state government.

Far more monitoring wells are currently above normal and more wells are at all time highs than those at all time lows.

(back to the walk through time)

But remember, this is California annnnndddd…..

THE DROUGHT’S NOT OVER!!!!

4.9 26 votes
Article Rating
51 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Editor
April 14, 2024 2:18 pm

The US Drought Monitor is almost worthless — without a great deal of prior understanding. Before looking at the pretty drought colored maps of California, read my earlier essay: Doubts about Droughts.

California is currently far better off today, in regards to water and rain, than it was three years ago.

Like temperature, drought conditions can be very local — “my south 40 acres had a droughty spring this year but the rest of the farm is doing well”.

Citizen Smith
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 15, 2024 8:55 am

Drought maps are obvious political inventions. The proof is there are no shades of green and blue showing abnormal to exceptional, extreme, severe wet conditions. The terms are even meant to evoke an emotional response. They are not data.

old cocky
Reply to  Citizen Smith
April 15, 2024 4:26 pm

They may be used for political purposes, but are actually a good example of conveying the required information clearly.
If an area isn’t in drought, it’s a “don’t care”, so best left unshaded to reduce visual clutter.
Flood maps should similarly ignore areas which aren’ flooded or at risk of flooding.

A map of general conditions should show gradations from dry to wet.

Bill_W_1984
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 16, 2024 12:56 pm

Sorry to change topics but I have two questions. 1. Has Mosher been commenting much? Is his health ok? And more importantly, 2. story tip, has anyone seen a critique of this paper? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09959-4

Scissor
April 14, 2024 2:19 pm

A state that is largely mountainous desert located next to the Pacific on two or three massive earthquake faultlines with more than 500 active faults, that is prone to flooding, forest fires, landslides, tsunamis, hurricanes, and even volcanic activity, what could possibly go wrong?

iflyjetzzz
Reply to  Scissor
April 14, 2024 3:27 pm

What could possibly go wrong?
It could turn from a red state into a blue state? Never mind; it did that around 1990.

Reply to  Scissor
April 15, 2024 12:11 pm

Hippies and their progeny running the state. That’s what.

April 14, 2024 2:26 pm

I think in the name of sustainability California ought to depopulate.

Reply to  MIke McHenry
April 14, 2024 3:00 pm

Apparently, a lot oc former Californians agree with you.

Duane
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 15, 2024 4:24 am

Actually, a lot of former Californians, who tend to move to red states, DON’T want to see blue Californians moving in and Californicating their new homes.

The biggest complaint of long time residents of western states with a lot of in-migration from California is that the ex Californicators want to turn their new home into California.

Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 16, 2024 8:19 am

I have a cousin who just relocated from California to Arizona

Reply to  MIke McHenry
April 14, 2024 3:38 pm

California ought to depopulate.

That should read -“continue to depopulate”
https://news.yahoo.com/california-loses-house-seat-first-194713136.html

California will lose a seat in the House of Representatives for the first time in history, the U.S. Census Bureau announced on Monday.

The Golden State is one of seven states that will lose a seat in the House based on population shifts, a group that includes New York, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Like all migration, the republican states need to ensure the immigrants shed their woke values at the border.

Reply to  RickWill
April 16, 2024 7:40 pm

promoting thought police on your side?

Reply to  MIke McHenry
April 14, 2024 7:28 pm

They aren’t “depopulating”, they are “voting with their feet”. It’s a tried and true method of dealing with one party states.

Bob
April 14, 2024 2:34 pm

It is clear the government is not suited for weather/meteorological duties and the same goes for water conservation.

Reply to  Bob
April 14, 2024 4:04 pm

Any suggestion that government funded bureaucracy of any shade is not a socialist enclave can be shot down just by looking at their universal support for the UN agenda that drives Climate Change™ fanaticism.

Probably the worst cheer leaders are those who infest the BBC. There is zero balance in the BBC. It is wokester paradise with a guaranteed source of funding and powers to prosecute non-payers for their ever increasing licence fee. But Brits are now deserting in greater number because they know they are being lied to.

All government funded meteorological groups are pushing climate tipping points; hyping Climate Change™ with every adverse weather event.

Look at how NASA went from a trusted engineering group to woke Climate Change™ fanatics. Every NASA body promotes the CO2 nonsense.

Read this and work out if Greenland Summit is increasing in elevation or falling:

Greenland Ice Sheet surface elevation is changing as mass loss accelerates. In understanding elevation change, the magnitudes of physical processes involved is important for interpretation of altimetry and assessing changes in these processes. The four key processes are surface mass balance (SMB), firn densification, ice dynamics, and isostatic adjustment. We quantified these processes at Summit, Greenland, where monthly GNSS snowmobile traverses have measured a decade of elevation change. We find an elevation increase at Summit of 0.017 m/a. The sum of the effects of the four processes reproduces the measured elevation time series, in linear trend and in intra-annual variability. The short-term variability in elevation is explained by the variability in SMB. Since SMB has not changed significantly over the last century, and the other processes change over longer time scales, the elevation change likely has been ongoing for at least the last 100 years.

https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/greenland-ice-sheet-summit-elevation-change

Over the decade of measurement, the elevation INCREASED 170mm, But that does not fit the story line so it gets reported as 0.017m/a. About 1/10 the rate of sea level rise is increasing at 0.0017m/a.

Reply to  RickWill
April 16, 2024 7:45 pm

and Greenland ice surface elevation could not be effected by the large scale tectonic activity below the ice?

antigtiff
April 14, 2024 2:38 pm

Callyfornia once had the largest lake west of the Rockies…..the central valley would refill again if it was dammed again to block the flow into the Pacific.

Reply to  antigtiff
April 14, 2024 11:30 pm

Tulare lake in southern san Jaoquin valley won’t refill as it’s water is diverted for agriculture

The pre historic full valley lake Corcoran cut a channel through to San Francisco bay 600,000 years ago and won’t refill

Rud Istvan
April 14, 2024 2:39 pm

The last significant reservoir built in California was New Melones, finished late 1970’s. In 1980 the CA population was 23.7 million. In 2024 it is 39.5 million. Self inflicted ‘drought’ wounds. Next major CA reservoir MAY be completed in 2026. So the extra water from these past two wet years will be largely wasted.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 14, 2024 7:42 pm

Thank none other than Jerry Brown for the cancellation of the Auburn Dam construction, a total waste of taxpayer money. His “Era of Limits” doctrine included stopping all infrastructure improvements during his first administration.

Reply to  doonman
April 14, 2024 8:31 pm

There was a good reason for the cancellation. When they started excavating at the dam site, they discovered unmapped, active faults. Would you have wanted the dam completed, filled with water whose weight would have triggered earthquakes and possibly ruptured the dam? Better to deal with water shortages than a shortage of people and homes along the American River, downstream from Auburn. They had already experienced a failure of the Hell Hole Dam on the Rubicon River, upstream from Auburn, in 1964.

Kevin
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 15, 2024 12:20 pm

That’s not true. There’s Diamond Valley Lake (storage capacity of 800,000 acre-feet) in SoCal which was completed in 2003 and the Seven Oaks Reservoir (storage capacity of 145,600 acre-feet) was completed in 2000. Some may argue the Seven Oaks Reservoir is for flood control but it is also used for ground water recharge and there has been proposals recently to store water behind it in low precipitation years.

Gino
April 14, 2024 2:43 pm

I have frequently heard the drumbeat of “below average” rainfall and drought but, to quote a rather famous line, “I do not think this word means what they think it means”. I have lived near Paso Robles in the central coastal area of California for the last decade, and in southern California for the the last 42 years. To be honest, rainfall seems…well, normal to me so I did a little checking. Our local water department has rainfall numbers available from 1942 forward and they show an “Average” rainfall of 14.03″ from 1942-2023 (a number that has changed since I downloaded their data a few months back, and cannot duplicate from the published raw data, which instead shows a mean of 14.26″).

It turns out that the median rainfall here is 11.97, and there is a 60% probability that any years rainfall will not reach the mean based on that data. Which passes the smell test for desert/grassland areas of low to moderate rainfall interspersed with years of heavy downpour. The way the data is characterized is the root of the problem. On any given year we have at least a 50% probability of being 2″ below the mean, and that is totally normal.

Also, the overall trend in rainfall for our area is actually upward at .03″/year (nothing significant but it certainly casts the drought hysteria in a very poor light).

California doesn’t have a rainfall problem, it has a population and consumption problem.

Tom Halla
April 14, 2024 2:43 pm

It is more that California’s water has been mismanaged. Failure to build enough reservoirs, or percolation ponds to recharge aquifers is compounded by environmentalist demands to “save the Delta smelt”, and release what water was stored.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Tom Halla
April 14, 2024 2:52 pm

The last delta smelt was spotted 6 years ago. But they still release the water.

Scissor
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 14, 2024 3:42 pm

They’re delicious but take quite a few to make a meal.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 14, 2024 7:21 pm

A new fish has emerged to take the endangered poster position in California. The Tidewater Goby is less than 2 inches long but is in critical condition due to, well, who knows? But it’s now illegal to disturb them which means no draining of seasonal lagoons, even when flooding occurs. Of course, seasonal lagoons are seasonal, which means nature opens and closes them due to weather conditions. That’s all natural, but people doing it isn’t.

Reply to  Tom Halla
April 14, 2024 3:01 pm

And to take down dams.

Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 14, 2024 3:05 pm

“And to take down dams.”

Releasing huge amounts of silt and whatever toxins have accumulated.

Effectively killing the river….

… it is the environmentalists’ way. !

Mac
Reply to  Tom Halla
April 14, 2024 5:55 pm

I had a patient in the 80’s who was an executive with the LA metropolitan water district. He told me the politics within the agency were unbelievable. And of course LA was and is very dependent on water from northern and central California and the fighting over that is intense.

April 14, 2024 3:48 pm

Given what is known about how local ocean SST’s determine the weather of all land areas that surround and are in close proximity to the ocean waters, to understand it all from a global perspective, examining the effects in one specific location and at a specific point in time must be balanced by reference to concurrent conditions of all surrounding land areas.

Reply to  kalsel3294
April 14, 2024 4:37 pm

The amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere is increasing. It is increasing more in the NH than the SH but, on average, the SH is also increasing. TPW over the Pacific off California has not increased much at all – per attached

The only month where runoff from land to ocean has an increasing trend is in May. Mostly associated with increased snowfall and faster melt.

Precipitation over land, on average, is increasing but the advection from ocean to land that drives the runoff has a downward trend. And more sunlight is making it to the ground implying less cloud but also warmer ground..

Regions in the NH have to be mindful of maintaining surface moisture and biomass as the natural warming increases. The peak solar intensity over the NH is only 500 years into 9,500 year warming cycle. Regions in the NH that lose biomass and surface water will become increasingly vulnerable to drought. Anything that reduces ocean advection to land will reduce available runoff particularly in the warmer months. Wind turbines and solar panels at scale will intensify droughts.

Regions that have embraced wind turbines and solar panels at large scale will promote drought conditions

TPW_Trend_88to23
Rich Davis
April 14, 2024 4:23 pm

deux ex machina

Didn’t you mean deus ex machina? Or am I missing some subtle wordplay mixing French and Latin?

Giving_Cat
April 14, 2024 5:03 pm

As long as drought is politically advantageous there will be drought.

Several comments follow.

It should be noted that there is no “banking” excess precipitation. The metric only goes to 100. No higher.

Reservoir levels are precisely maintained. DWR could make those numbers anything they wanted with sufficient motivation.

Sierra snow pack water content is not only fungible but capitated. The April 1st measurement is the end of the water season despite recent significant post April 1st accumulation.

Precipitation distribution has major influence on state water demand. The wet Southern California “winter” (hey, I grew up in New England) means demands on the supply are far less than starting off dry and staying dry.

Above all, any declared water “shortage” is both planned and evil. At no time in the last drought cycle were urban growth moratoriums considered. At no time in the last drought cycle were desilting of existing reservoirs considered. At no time in the last drought cycle were new reservoirs considered.

Don’t get me started.

Tom Halla
Reply to  Giving_Cat
April 14, 2024 7:39 pm

But, but, but Conservation is a positive good! Why do those peasant scum need water anyway? Just read any Green publication, and that is their rationale.

Mr Ed
April 14, 2024 9:33 pm

The Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner takes a look at the water of the west
with some historical perspective. I first read it over 30yrs ago.
There’s some discussed online =====>

https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~martins/hydro/case_studies/cadillac_desert.htm

A couple of local hydrologist’s I went to high school with made some big money
stripping water rights from farms and ranches in Colorado and moving them south
to CA. One has passed on and his partner was still active a couple of years ago
and helped me with some water rights issues. Whiskeys for Drinking and
Water’s for Fighting is still true today. The money being spent on the climate crap
would be much better spent on water here in the west.

D Sandberg
April 14, 2024 11:17 pm

Update: The report is dated April 9, 2024. Here on the Central Coast about 25 miles in from the ocean we’ve averaged 14.5 inches per year over the past 80 years. Last year we received 28 inches and after the latest 2-inch additional April 12-13, 2024, we have 20 inches this season. More than three years of rain in two years. So much for the permanent drought.

Alan M
April 15, 2024 12:59 am

Reading all this it strikes me that the problem isn’t climate, it’s bad water management. They use more than they have. Looks like they always have done and always will.

Richard Greene
April 15, 2024 1:35 am

This article needs an editor

It’s too long and there is no byline.

Duane
April 15, 2024 4:28 am

The reason the “drought’s not ever over” in California is that much of California has a dry climate naturally, and that happens to be true in the parts of California where most of the people live and where most of the agriculture is based … because, drum roll … it’s dry and sunny and a pleasant climate for humans and a great climate for crops, if one can bring in enough water from somewhere else. The parts of California that tend to be wetter most of the year host relatively few residents and close to no agriculture at all.

JC
April 15, 2024 5:49 am

Creating climate disaster narratives from California weather has to be completely irritating for life long Californians in their 60’s to 90’s who have clear memory of the many cycles of dry spells and torrential rains, near empty reservoirs and then bursting at the seams.

If you are living with a screen in front of your face 24/7 you become vulnerable to believing anything at all. Few care you get the right idea about anything; right idea meaning an objectively true appropriation of knowledge. Unfortunately, dopamine powered speculation is enough knowledge for most people today.

But if you grew up in California in the 50’s and 60’s walking 2 miles to school, through canyon’s, and dry river beds you would understand it rains and stops raining in California in big ways. You would understand how the mountains, the Japanese current, the fronts out of the pacific and the rain and the hot and dry all work together to make California climate very different than any thing you can experience scrolling a screen.

April 15, 2024 7:11 am

In other, fewer, words:

“Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools”
Bible, Romans 1:22, King James Version (KJV)

Steve Oregon
April 15, 2024 7:37 am

Last year, I very gently asked Peter Gleick, on his twitter page, what he thought about the abundance of water in California.
He immediately kicked me off and blocked me from this twitter page.

Real Peter Gleickhttps://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4a7.svg
@PeterGleick
You’re blocked
You can’t follow or see @PeterGleick’s posts. Learn more

I bet he has blocked many people. He won’t be questioned.

Sparta Nova 4
April 15, 2024 12:08 pm

After reading all that, I want some water.

April 15, 2024 12:58 pm

How many deserts are there in California?
Lots.
It would seem that in some areas, “drought” is perfectly normal and natural.

Reply to  Gunga Din
April 16, 2024 8:00 pm

Any drought, anywhere, is relative to that location’s average.

April 16, 2024 7:23 pm

When there are 10s of millions more people using the water for everyday living, and additional extensive industrial scale water uses, such as large agricultural projects, and religious dumping of large quantities of fresh water into a major delta in worship of a tiny fish no one has been able to find for more than six years, and frantic destruction of existing water storage facilities, it should be no surprise to any one that one result is less soil water, even if precipitation had remained completely consistent year by year, decade by decade. This is no different than extensive overgrazing by vast herds of goats.

There are methods, proven around the globe, for recharging aquifers and increasing ground water content through better utilization of existing precipitation but the eco-loons, backed by legislators, regulators, and the courts, would have conniption fits if reasonable measures were suggested for California.