Tropical Storm Bertha forms

Latest bulletin, tracking map at right, click to enlarge.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER  1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

…TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES… …TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES…
CULEBRA…AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

[…]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…31 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY EVENING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

43 thoughts on “Tropical Storm Bertha forms

  1. Is this satire? I mean all BIG letters about “THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.” “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS”

    REPLY: this is how these bulletins are produced, they are all caps for wire copy, easier to read on radio/TV. – Anthony

  2. Usually clicking on pictures at WUWT works for me. Not for this post. Nothing happens when I click on the picture.

  3. Say what? In 2005 we’d already had 10 TS / hurricanes by now.

    Things really IS gettin’ worster!

  4. This one will be bad as it has a girls name and as we have been told by those that get paid to study such things storms with girls names are worserer than those with boys names.
    Santa Baby says: Loved your comment LOL

    James Bull

  5. Otter, 2004’s hurricane season was terrible, but the first named storm wasn’t until July 31.

  6. That’s why I’m beggin’ please
    I am on my bended knees
    Bertha don’t you come ’round here
    Any more…
    – Grateful Dead

  7. I have been watching the formation of this for a couple of days now. I was surprised yesterday to see that they sent a hurricane hunter (USAF aircraft) to investigate a disturbance that wasn’t yet a named storm. I see that they have sent a second one. To me it seems that someone was desperate to get this thing classified as a named tropical storm before midnight. Otherwise. Only one named storm in July. When was the last time that happened? Also. Can one of the weather experts here explain why it is expected to swing north (it seems to have already started that swing) when then rest of the weather there seems to be tracking over Venezuela and Columbia?

  8. Oh I remember the days of being first in the office and checking to see what reams of paper the teletype machines had dumped on the floor overnight – the all cap messages sent overnight from Asia and Europe. Now, by the time you get to the office you have reviewed and responded to the overnight emails (if you didn’t wake up in the night and decide to respond then.)

  9. Seza says:
    August 1, 2014 at 1:11 am
    No lower case on Teletypes – hence the all-caps.

    _____
    The old teletypes were indeed all caps, but it would be amazing if NOAA is still using equipment that lacks lower case. It could be just tradition or, as our host says, something done for perceived ease of reading.

  10. beng says:
    August 1, 2014 at 5:27 am
    Baby Bertha, one of the Butt-sisters.
    ————————————-

    Thanks for the memory…..

  11. ***
    Chris B says:
    August 1, 2014 at 7:36 am
    ***

    Thanks — I was hoping someone would get it….

  12. beng says:
    August 1, 2014 at 7:46 am
    ***
    Chris B says:
    August 1, 2014 at 7:36 am
    ***

    Thanks — I was hoping someone would get it….

    ———————————

    An hilarious early music video version. LOL

  13. The upper case used in hazard warnings is an ASCII-type font. While National Weather Service offices can receive communications in other fonts, several members of the World Meteorological Organization apparently require only ASCII-type upper case font (see why that might be below). While the NWS wishes to move forward with mixed case, it currently is not able to until the entire world moves into the 21st century. An excerpt from the directive about mixed case versus capital case:

    “2.1 Characters, Case, and Punctuation for Narrative Text. Narrative text uses upper case and only the following punctuation marks in the text: the period (.); the three dot ellipsis (…); the forward slash (/); the dash (-); and the plus (+). Use of other characters may inhibit the proper dissemination or automated processing by certain users’ systems.

    The goal of the NWS is to move to mixed case letters with additional allowed punctuation in its text products, while maintaining current text rules in products that are under the purview of the WMO requirements listed in the document above or that are required under international or national agreements. Until such changes are officially announced via Public Information Statements, offices will abide by the rules in the paragraph above and in the following sections of this document.”

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fdirectives%2Fsym%2Fpd01017001curr.pdf&ei=m7HbU6j-G6HpiwKSwYCQBg&usg=AFQjCNHHdCJ6OqCm-iDtsrlURSSUqZITtQ&sig2=_5_aDlquQ-d6KRFBQK4Hkg&bvm=bv.72197243,d.cGE

    As to why they must continue to use ASCII upper case, I am guessing it is because there are wire services still around that receive weather information via Teleprinter, not computer. It is the case that the internet is not available everywhere, but hard wire (IE telephone wire) is still available in more remote areas. And teleprinters handle hard wire information but only if sent using certain fonts.

    Ergo, ASCII caps.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleprinter

  14. Note that teleprinters do not use ASCII, but Baudot code, a five-bit code which allows only 32 characters.

  15. A prototypical Stacy-cane. Word is the hurricane specialists got into a wrasslin’ match over whether this was a closed circulation or not. Apparently, Stacy Stewart won out. Now the 53rd
    can only find 3 west wind obs to justify a cc.
    O West Wind
    When wilt thou blow
    And I see my Bertha again?

  16. Look at the work Pamela Gray has done.

    In fact, all capital case is harder to read than conventional small case-capital mixed as usual. The NWS needs to take this into account.

  17. Santa Baby says:
    July 31, 2014 at 11:29 pm
    Looking at

    Is Al Gore in the Pacific area? Send him to the Caribbean and Bertha will turn into a snowstorm?

    Sending Al-Baby to the area will likely turn it into a Sharknado

  18. Akatsukami, from the Wiki entry:

    “Earlier teleprinters had three rows of keys and only supported upper case letters. They used the 5 bit baudot code and generally worked at 60 to 100 words per minute. Later teleprinters, specifically the Teletype Model 33, used ASCII code, an innovation that came into widespread use in the 1960s as computers became more widely available.”

    This would indicate to me that the NWS and WMO use ASCII code on ASCII teleprinters.

  19. The NWS service cannot readily switch because of the intricacies of trade and information sharing agreements between countries. And yes, those international agreements get that detailed, right down to the dots and dits (a reference back to Morse code) of ASCII code used to transmit information.

  20. Well, of course they do. I haven’t had to deal with the fussiness of hardware since college days, but I assure you that it is necessary to take into account such things as signal fade time when designing a circuit (which is why Baudot code uses 1.42 stop bits…).

    And, whilst NWS may use ASCII/XASCII machinery, if they are transmitting to stations using Baudot code machines, it makes no sense for the text to use glyphs for which there is no representation at the receiving end.

  21. It could even be the case that some remote countries still have older teleprinters clicking away in weather offices. It may be the case that the NWS and WMO use ASCII caps only to communicate with the wide variety of teleprinters still functioning in the world, including the oldies but goodies that use Baudot caps only code.

    So you might ask why I know this stuff. I’ve had some experience running VA hospital equipment, including teleprinters. And people are aghast that the VA system runs slow. DUH!!!!!

  22. Akatsukami, of course it makes sense. Translations were developed (see the link below).

    Notice that many of our current in-use computer words go way back. Baudot is used in the term “baud rate”, and Gauss is used in the term “Gaussian Elimination”. But let’s also clear up a misconception. The 5-level “Baudot” code was based on an earlier design by Johann Gauss and Wilhelm Weber. Baudot is credited with the patent for the machine, not the concept. French law forbade patents on concepts such as codes. But you could carry a patent on the machine that used the code.

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEcQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baudot.net%2Fdocs%2Fsmith–teletype-codes.pdf&ei=TO3bU6LsFcHViwLdqIEg&usg=AFQjCNGk_T9YNxmF0HdL63mlpmEnu91j3Q&sig2=qKk4gs9gt-FDNZ-OYLCSWw&bvm=bv.72197243,d.cGE

  23. While I was working in the VA system, we had on staff a guy from England who could build a translator in his sleep that interfaced with various computer based equipment that used different codes. He had an amazing techno-brain that made me feel like I was still in my toddler days of gagagagagaga language.

  24. This is a quote of the forecast discussion from the national hurricane center.

    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 011454
    TCDAT3

    TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
    1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

    Bertha is disorganized this morning. While satellite imagery shows
    a well-defined low-cloud swirl exposed just west of the main
    convective mass, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
    Aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open
    wave. The aircraft did report 56 kt winds at 1500 feet to the
    east-northeast of the center, along with an area of SFMR surface
    winds in excess of 40 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is
    increased to 45 kt.

    The initial motion is now 295/18, and over the past few hours
    Bertha may be moving even faster. The cyclone is currently being
    steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this
    should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, the
    cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge
    caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This
    should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the
    Atlantic north of Bermuda. The track guidance remains in good
    agreement with this scenario, and it has changed little since the
    previous advisory. The new forecast track is therefore an update of
    the previous forecast.

    Bertha is currently experiencing about 15-20 kt of southwesterly
    vertical wind shear. and water vapor imagery shows dry
    mid-/upper-level air near the storm. The forecast track calls for
    Bertha to interact with one or two upper-level troughs during the
    next 48-72 hours, which should cause some shear and dry air
    entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack
    of organization, suggests little change in strength should
    occur during the next 48 hours or so. After that time, Bertha is
    expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater
    moisture. The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening
    during that time, but it is weaker than all of the guidance except
    the Florida State Superensemble. An alternative scenario is that a
    combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction
    causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
    hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
    the system reaches the more favorable environment.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 02/0000Z 15.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 03/0000Z 18.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 03/1200Z 20.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
    72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    120H 06/1200Z 36.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

    Doesn’t seem like they’re very worried.

  25. Ren thanks for all those fantastic links. My weather bookmark folder is expanding at a rate of knots.

  26. Joebeibi I agree with you about 2004… but I was talking about 2005, and the fact that there had been 10 storms by the end of July, and Katrina was up next.

  27. I wasn’t disagreeing. I was just pointing out that you can have an active hurricane year with a late start.

    Hard to believe how long it’s been since the last big storm hit Florida. You know, I bought a generator after Katrina, and haven’t even taken it out of the box since. I have no idea if it even works, but it’s way past its return date!

Comments are closed.