Separating Weather from Hysteria: The ‘Double Heat Dome’ Story

Reposted from Legal Insurrection

My forecast calls for sensible precautions and a healthy dose of skepticism toward overheated rhetoric.

Posted by Leslie Eastman 

Last year, I delved into the origins of “heat dome” hysteria.  This year, the press has literally doubled down on this scare with news of a “double heat dome” hysteria.

Two heat domes are preparing to join forces, sending temperatures soaring around the U.S. next week.

The first heat dome is developing in the southwest while the second is forming over the subtropical Atlantic, said Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at Nexstar’s WFLA.

They’ll be replaced by one larger heat dome set to park itself over the center of the U.S. by the Fourth of July holiday.

“This could be the first widespread, significant heat wave of 2026 for much of the South and Midwest,” said Nexstar meteorologist Blake Matthews. “Unlike the record-breaking heat that scorched the desert southwest earlier this year, this event is targeting areas that haven’t experienced prolonged extreme temperatures yet this season.”

Double heat dome coming to US: Here’s when it’ll start, where it’ll be worsthttps://t.co/Ia9P6D9AGM

— The Hill (@thehill) June 26, 2026

Instead of offering calm, practical guidance on seasonal weather and local preparedness, headline writers are racing to outdo one another with apocalyptic graphics and overheated climate rhetoric.

So as the nation gets ready for July 4th, we’re being told to fear the forecast rather than focus on the very real, yet very manageable, risks that come with a hot holiday weekend.

We call it summer. Double heat dome?  https://t.co/qqWpj0gvBx

— Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki (@MatthewWielicki) July 1, 2026

A heat dome is simply a large, persistent upper‑level high‑pressure system that acts like a lid, trapping hot air near the surface and allowing temperatures and humidity to build for days or weeks. In this case, one dome is developing over the Southwest U.S., and another over the subtropical Atlantic.

Forecasters expect these two ridges to link up and effectively behave as a single, expansive dome over the central and eastern U.S. heading into the Fourth of July period.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center said hot weather will be the story this coming weekend from the Plains to the Ohio Valley, with widespread above-average temperatures expected thanks to a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure (aka heat dome) developing.

Highs in the 90s are expected as far north as the Great Lakes and Minnesota, and 100s for much of Texas. Heat indices approaching 110 degrees are possible from the mid-South to the central Gulf Coast where the combination of heat and high dew points will be greatest.

I grew up in the Great Lakes region. Highs in the 90s were not unheard of, and I suspect the 100s are not rare in Texas, either.

The “double” wording is more descriptive/media‑driven than a formal technical term; operational meteorologists are still describing the pattern as a strong, connected ridge/heat dome.

Despite the barrels of red ink and the adjectives, people seem to be chill with the idea that summer days can run a bit hot.

A “heat dome?” You mean high pressure bringing warm temps for a few days. Color me shocked in the middle of summer — Mookie (@MookieMich) July 1, 2026

In fact, the use of color in weather graphics has gotten ludicrous.

It was not 100°F at the North Pole like this image suggests.

Someone needs to take the orange and red crayons away. https://t.co/refJeNIVvx

— Chris Martz (@ChrisMartzWX) July 1, 2026

But I digress.

The real message is that the next few weeks will be hot. So, make a point of drinking water regularly, wearing lightweight clothing, and taking occasional breaks in the shade or air‑conditioned spaces to avoid overheating.

Finally, review the U.S. National Weather Service’s heat safety recommendations for staying safe in hot weather, and follow those that apply to any outdoor activities.

“Double heat dome.”

It’s summer. Okay?

This is a heatwave caused by a ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere. It’s not a “heat dome,” it’s a ridge.

This isn’t the first nor the last time that it will get hot. Stay indoors, chug some water, and breathe. You’ll be okay! https://t.co/LdSw0nqznG

— Chris Martz (@ChrisMartzWX) July 1, 2026

So as the media pushes “double heat dome” alarmism and slathers maps in apocalyptic reds, most Americans will simply recognize what they’ve always called this season: summer.

My forecast calls for sensible precautions and a healthy dose of skepticism toward overheated rhetoric.

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46 Comments
NotChickenLittle
July 6, 2026 6:13 pm

I really dislike that now they always seem to emphasize the heat index, the “feels like” number first, rather than the actual temperature. And the constant drumbeat that it’s all due to “climate change” and not just weather in summer!

There’s plenty of evidence that these tactics work, unfortunately, to portray mankind and our CO2 emissions as the culprit. What I don’t think works quite as well is the insistence that more and bigger government, and money and creature comfort sacrifices by the hoi polloi, will make it all “better”. Even though most things are getting better anyway, in spite of or because of whatever warming is happening…

ozspeaksup
Reply to  NotChickenLittle
July 7, 2026 4:57 am

the feelz like IS what it is I reckon.

2hotel9
Reply to  ozspeaksup
July 7, 2026 4:11 pm

It certainly is. 😉

Reply to  NotChickenLittle
July 7, 2026 10:08 am

It’s all the more strange given that the “feels like temperature” is presumably not the same for everyone, is it? If it’s forty degrees in a square, and I’m sipping a cold drink while sitting in the shade of a terrace surrounded by greenery, with a fan blowing near me, I’m likely to feel a lower temperature than someone else standing in the blazing sun in the middle of the asphalt!

Bob
July 6, 2026 6:14 pm

I saw a lot of days over 100 degrees when I was stationed at Fort Hood, everybody seemed to take it in stride. I don’t see anything alarming about 90 degree temperatures in the Great Lakes region.

Reply to  Bob
July 6, 2026 6:53 pm

This is a rather mild, typical summer for the U.S.

Nothing unusual is going on.

Back around 2011, the U.S. had persistent high pressure systems that would not go away. They circulated around the general area for about two years, and that time period was one of the really extreme weather events we had.

A two year drought and temperatures climbing over 115F in the center of the country.

I dragged 400 feet of garden hose around my acreage, which has a lot of old trees and I watered every one I could reach because I thought they were going to burn up and die.

I walked through the woods all summer doing that, and normally you would be covered by ticks doing that, but I didn’t see even one tick. It was too hot for the ticks!

And the only living creature I saw in those weeks of watering was one raccoon up in a tree looking down at me.

That summer is what I think it would have been like living in the 1930’s. Very extreme.

But we haven’t had anything like that since, or before that, in my living memory, and I’ve seen a lot of summers.

George Thompson
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 6, 2026 8:04 pm

Sounds like how I spent that summer also-I had 10 new fruit trees that needed water-daily, I swear. Trees made it, garden was good-but it was so dry that we all feared pasture fires from livestock kicking rocks, or idiots with firecrackers. ..and as pastures are generally connected to barns…

Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 6, 2026 8:39 pm

There is a solid spike in the USCRN data around that time.

Early 2012 has the highest anomaly in the USCRN data.

July 6, 2026 6:42 pm

From the article: “They’ll be replaced by one larger heat dome set to park itself over the center of the U.S. by the Fourth of July holiday.”

This happens every summer. The variables are, when it sets up, where it sets up, how much land the high pressure system covers, and how long the high pressure system remains over one area.

The longer a high pressure system sits over a certain area, the hotter that certain area will get.

None of this has anything to do with CO2.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 6, 2026 8:43 pm

When I lived in Vermont in the late-’60s, the joke was that Summer arrived on July 4th and left on July 5th.

SxyxS
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 7, 2026 12:43 am

I think “heat dome” has become the new big term in the 2026 propaganda department.
They started using it in Europe too.

What once used to be just a usual front of warm weather is now something inpressive,sensational and threatening.( I feels so historical to survive all these doomy climate catastrophies, heat domes and rainbombs that once were called summer )

I wonder what’ll be the term for 2027?
Climate Holocaust(it goes so well with climate deniers)
or Weather of Mass Destruction.

Reply to  SxyxS
July 7, 2026 3:31 am

If people actually looked at how the high and low pressure areas arrange themselves, they will see there are many high and low pressure areas.

A high pressure system is always located next to a low pressure system, and all these systems move constantly.

oeman50
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 7, 2026 3:59 am

I recall that in the late 1970’s in my city, the temperature went to 105 degrees F 3 days in a row. Not the heat index, but the actual temperature. So when it popped over 100 degrees F (not over 105) on the 4th, I told anyone who would listen about that.

“I laugh at your puny 102 degrees!”

John Hultquist
July 6, 2026 6:52 pm

I grew up in the Great Lakes region.” [L.E.]
If western Pennsylvania counts, so did I; 75 miles south of Lake Erie. I recall a very hot period in the mid-1950s, perhaps 1954. Pittsburgh claims a 99°F — July 14, 1954. We had temperatures like that for at least a week, and got a window AC for the following summer. 
*I found a 93°F for this past Thur & Fri. Suck it up, Buttercups!

Reply to  John Hultquist
July 7, 2026 3:40 am

Yes, the 1950’s were a hot decade. Not quite as hot as the 1930’s, but close.

in looking at this period we see very hot temperatures in the 1930’s, then a cooling trend in the 1940’s, then it got warm again in the 1950’s, and the the cooling set in and took us to “The Ice Age Cometh” era, where it cooled so much that some people were claiming the Earth was headed for another ice age.

In looking at current-day temperatures, it looks to me like 1998, equates to the 1930’s, and the cooling after 1998, equates to the 1940’s, and the renewed warming in 2016-2024 equates to the 1950’s.

What happened after the 1950’s? A serious cooling trend is what happened. What will happen after 2024? So far, the temperatures have cooled by 0.5C.

Mac
July 6, 2026 7:00 pm

I am presently in Albuquerque NM and the temp today was 97F and of course the UHI made actual temperatures over 100F and driving I saw 105F. The altitude is 5000MSL at the Rio Grande river up to 6500+ in the foothills with the temps decreasing ~3-5 degrees. Even in the mountains it is still very warm with temps in the high 80s. Not unusual at all for this time of the year. No warnings needed because people can think for themselves!
I lived in the Coachella valley of Calif where temps could reach 120F occasionally. Not unusual! All tolerable. No threat warnings back then.
I’ve been in Russia in February and seen temps greater than minus30F. Tolerable but I prefer warmth even present temps where I am. Fortunately it’s dry here as it is in the Coachella valley. When in school in St Louis Mo and later in Indianapolis it was very humid; not as tolerable w/o air con.
I was in Hong Kong years back and was taking a taxi passing along a beach. I asked the driver where was everyone, it appeared to be a perfect day at 80F. His answer; Too Cold!
So perception is everything!

mal
Reply to  Mac
July 6, 2026 7:18 pm

I haven’t seen anything above 115° on my Colorado yet this summer, and June was downright nice here in Mesa, AZ. Sure, we had a hot April followed by a “cool” May — cool meaning 90s and a few 100s. I’m not dumb enough to think June temperatures tell you anything about July or August. Too bad the media — and way too many people — never got that memo.
I still shake my head at the U.S. Weather Service throwing out “excessive heat warnings” early and late in the season when those temps are completely normal for July and August. As if we’re too clueless to notice it’s warm outside.
Same thing up north with extreme cold and wind. “Feels like” only matters when you’re standing in the wind. Step out of it and suddenly it’s fine. You learn early to stay the hell out of the wind. It was perfectly comfortable on the sheltered side of the house, in a grove, or behind a snonbank.

Max More
Reply to  mal
July 6, 2026 9:56 pm

Yes, it was a relatively mild June also here in Scottsdale.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Mac
July 7, 2026 9:27 am

Perception? Perhaps. Acclimation? Of course.

A few years back, in Hawaii, in December, the temperature dropped to 76 F. Residents were wearing down parkas because it was so cold.

Bryan A
July 6, 2026 7:41 pm

Right now the entire states of …
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Iowa
Missouri
West Virginia
Tennessee
Kentucky
All have sustained winds below the threshold to make wind turbines spin.
If they were dependent on Ruinable Generation they’d be hosed!

trafamadore
Reply to  Bryan A
July 6, 2026 7:56 pm

but.
but.
but.
It WAS a sunny day. I was able to recharge my batteries today.

Bryan A
Reply to  trafamadore
July 6, 2026 10:20 pm

Perhaps from 10 am until 2 pm you were able to gather a KW or two but that will be gone by 10pm so how will you wake up tomorrow and how cold will your fridge be???

Bryan A
Reply to  trafamadore
July 7, 2026 5:21 am

How exactly did you recharge your theoretical batteries when the wind wasn’t blowing and Solar was your only option to power you through the day? Did you install 500% of the solar capacity you needed to have dedicated generation to recharge them??

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  trafamadore
July 7, 2026 1:36 pm

Was that 1 or 2 AAs?

trafamadore
July 6, 2026 7:44 pm

Well, it’s just math.
We are warming some 1.5 C over normal now, can I just say 3 F after rounding.
So we subtract the warming from the new record.
So 115F record -3F warming = 112F, no record.
Here in Michigan, a 94F record – 3F warming = 91F, no record.
It’s just math.
You geniuses should just correct the record by subtracting the warming.

Reply to  trafamadore
July 6, 2026 7:59 pm

How about we look at actual temperatures, instead of made up ones. !

10 day forecast for Michigan has a maximum of 84ºF

Maximum over last two weeks was 95ºF

Record for Michigan was 112ºF in 1936

USA-maxtemps
Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  trafamadore
July 7, 2026 9:30 am

Saturday was over 100 F.
Monday and again on Tuesday, 70 F.

I consider that proof of anthropogenic climate disaster. /sarc

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  trafamadore
July 7, 2026 4:40 pm

And up here on Whidbey Island it’s barely getting out of the 60s.

Max More
July 6, 2026 9:54 pm

111 degrees today in the Phoenix/Scottsdale area. That’s normal for July. It will get a few degrees hotter yet. At 10% humidity, it is quite manageable and it’s lovely getting in the pool in early evening. It’s actually chilly getting out due to the very low humidity. I do feel for people in the humid South.

July 6, 2026 11:32 pm

Looking at the image above “somehow” ho(o)t(t)ers springs to mind. Jiggle the brackets and letters to your liking 😉😁.

Have a nice and sunny day, it’s summer and although I don’t handle temperatures above 35°C that well I adapt acordingly: shade, AC, cool beer, beach, BBQ…etc.

And newsflash: unlike the previous summers this year the nights cool off significantly..maybe include that in your headlines alarmotards.

observa
July 7, 2026 12:33 am

Just in case yo’all was wondering where the missing cold went-
Record weather event brings bitter cold to millions

Mr.
Reply to  observa
July 7, 2026 3:43 am

-2.7 at Coldstream.
Yeah that fits. 🤣

leefor
July 7, 2026 2:13 am

Oh my. These heat domes now have learned stuff. “this event is targeting areas”, targeting requires prescience. 😉

Mr.
Reply to  leefor
July 7, 2026 3:46 am

and an imagination on steroids . . .

oeman50
Reply to  leefor
July 7, 2026 4:06 am

I think the domes learned it from CO2. You know the gas that is responsible for:

-heat waves
-freezing temperatures
-hurricanes and tornadoes
-doldrums
-floods
-droughts
-snow
-no snow
…and so on

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  oeman50
July 7, 2026 9:33 am

You left out bad hair, impotence, obesity, emaciation, bad breath, falling stock market, stock records, etc., etc., etc….

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  leefor
July 7, 2026 6:23 am

These aren’t the domes you’re looking for.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
July 7, 2026 9:31 am

Move along. Move along. 🙂

Bruce Cobb
July 7, 2026 4:40 am

Is that a “C” cup or a “D”? Hard to tell.

Bryan A
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
July 7, 2026 5:23 am

Looks like 500cc implants to me…augmented heat domes! 🤔😉😘

ozspeaksup
July 7, 2026 4:57 am

meanwhile a lot higher than normal airpressure over sth vic n tassie ( local was 1036 the other day I bashed the gauge thinking it was fritzed! and we> are freezing our butts off days 11 to 14c ,nights are 2 or less frost but still moist cold ugh

Bob Weber
July 7, 2026 10:01 am

“This is a heatwave caused by a ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere. It’s not a “heat dome,” it’s a ridge”

Has anybody seen the ridge? Where’s that confounded ridge?

It’s a ridge! See it in the graphics collage below. It had high pressure built up ahead of it.

East of the ridge, the tropopause geopotential height was very high, and subsequently the total column ozone was very low there, increasing the ground insolation as modeled by UV Index, a function of zenith angle and total column ozone. The zenith angle was nearly at maximum effectiveness, weeks after the solstice, ie, it’s summer! This is the sole cause of the ‘heat dome’.

comment image

comment image

The heat itself was generated by an acute UV Index spike at ground level, ie very strong sunshine, where 69% of the US 58 UVI stations had ≥10 UVI for two days, June 30 & July 1. It was still high for days after, rivaling peaks seen in 2011, a very hot year with high UVI, heat stress, and drought.

comment image

July 7, 2026 12:23 pm

Part 1/2

This is the text of a complaint I made to the BBC
”Mechanism of heat dome

“The immediate cause of the heatwave is a “heat dome” – an area of high pressure that becomes “stuck”, trapping warm air underneath it.” is scientifically incorrect.

What causes the temperature rise is adiabatic compression of the air below the heat dome caused by sinking air. Adiabatic compression causes an increase in temperature, this is also seen in the Foehn in the alps and the Chinook in the Great Plains in the USA. Adiabatic compression is also primarily responsible for the high temperatures on the planet Venus

According to https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2025-06-20-death-ridge-heat-dome-explainerwhich explains a heat dome over the USA.
“ These expansive bulges of warm air can stretch for 1,000 miles during the spring and summer months and provide sinking air over much of the country. It’s that sinking air that is often problematic.
Descending air compresses and warms as it drops closer to the surface.””

This was the response I received

We are sorry that you felt this item was not up to our usual standards and hopefully this email will resolve your concerns.

As I understand your complaint it is about this description of a ‘heat dome’.

The BBC report says:

The immediate cause of the heatwave is a “heat dome” – an area of high pressure that becomes “stuck”, trapping warm air underneath it.

The line includes a link to another BBC article, which also includes information about ‘heat domes’.

The report is written for a general audience and as such attempts to use language that is easily accessible to readers.

I have supplied below links to two organisations’ descriptions of an ‘heat dome’.

What is a heat dome? | Royal Meteorological Society
http://www.rmets.org/metmatters/what-heat-dome?

‘In short, a heat dome is created when an area of high pressure stays over the same area for days or even weeks, trapping very warm air underneath – rather like a lid on a pot.’

What Is a Heat Dome? | Scientific American
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-a-heat-dome/

‘A heat dome occurs when a persistent region of high pressure traps heat over an area. The heat dome can stretch over several states and linger for days to weeks, leaving the people, crops and animals below to suffer through stagnant, hot air that can feel like an oven.’

Both sources support the BBC’s description in the article and after considering the report I believe the item is in line with our Editorial Guidelines, which are publicly available and is duly accurate in its description.

I hope this email resolves your concerns about this item and thank you again for contacting the BBC.

This is our response at Stage 1a of the BBC’s complaints process. If you’re dissatisfied with this reply, a follow-up complaint may be considered at Stage 1b. You must submit a follow-up within 20 working days through the BBC Complaints webform. If you do decide to contact us again, please include your case number, and explain why you feel your complaint has not been addressed. We will then review your complaint “

Reply to  JohnC
July 7, 2026 12:27 pm

Part 2/2
I followed this response by contacting them again, pointing out that the Royal Meteorological Society link includes this statement “The problem with a stubborn area of high pressure is that already warm or hot air trapped under the high will become hotter and hotter, creating a heat dome. Hot air will rise into the atmosphere, but high pressure acts as a lid and causes the air to subside or sink. As the air sinks, it warms by compression, and the heat builds. The ground also warms, losing moisture and making it easier to heat even more.”

I received this response to my follow up complaint
“In considering the issues you have raised, we have looked again at the article, other content on the subject of ‘heat domes’ and contacted the author of the item.  We have also looked at the report in the context of the BBC’s editorial guidelines, which are publicly available.
 
Please consider this reply in tandem with our earlier response.
 
Below is the extract of the article you have raised concerns about:
The immediate cause of the heatwave is a “heat dome” – an area of high pressure that becomes “stuck”, trapping warm air underneath it.
 
This article is for a general reader and contains a description of a ‘heat dome’ that is easily understood and reflects the description from the Royal Meteorological Society. { This is not strictly true as the BBC ignores the sentence that mentions the temperature increase due to downward pressure}
 
Unfortunately, not all articles can include the detail some readers would like to see included. However, on many occasions that detail can be found in other parts of the BBC’s content.
 
After reviewing the article, we consider it to be duly accurate and in line with our guidelines.
 
I hope this email resolves your concerns and thank you for the additional information you included in your complaint, which I have shared with the author of the article.”

Bob Weber
Reply to  JohnC
July 7, 2026 1:06 pm

I think you have over-simplified this by leaving out the other factors I mentioned above.

The high pressure is key to clearing the skies allowing for stronger sunshine heating.

2hotel9
July 7, 2026 4:12 pm

Got into it last week with some “folks” quoting meteorological records, all from whatever aibot driven search engine they were using, about historical highsblahblahblah. I searched in archived newspaper articles on Library of Congress’ online service for those dates/areas, found some references and cut&paste into thread, with https://www.loc.gov/ included. Boy, did they come unspooled. Apparently I am “a climate denialist propogandist for the DEEP STATE stouge” and buying the guberment lies or some such. Imagine my surprise.