The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

Figure 0 - Page 12 from Wekly ENSO UpdateThere may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly ENSO Update to the right. (Please click on illustration for full-sized image.) In their update, NOAA also makes note of that anomaly during their discussion of the Hovmoller on their page 15. That subsurface temperature anomaly appears to have been caused by the recirculation of warm water from the earlier downwelling (warm) Kevin wave, not by another westerly wind burst.  Come along, I’ll show you.

We’ve illustrated and discussed in recent posts the quickly diminishing remnants of the strong downwelling Kelvin wave that had carried a large pulse of warm water from the western equatorial Pacific eastward as far as South America. See…

…of this series. And the bottom line of those posts was, if the trade winds along the equatorial Pacific did not start to provide the feedback necessary to support an El Niño, the 2014/15 El Niño was going to die an early death…basically, it would run out of warm water.

Now a warm subsurface temperature anomaly has appeared in the west-central equatorial Pacific. See Figure 1, which is the most recent (a 5-day average centered on July 22) equatorial cross section available from the NOAA GODAS website. That pocket of warm subsurface water has been there, growing stronger, for the past few weeks.

Figure 1

Figure 1 – Equatorial Cross Section

Yet, according to the equatorial wind stress data, there has not been a westerly wind burst in the western equatorial Pacific for a few months to nudge any warm water from the West Pacific Warm Pool. See Figure 2. So where’d the warm water come from?

Figure 2

Figure 2 – Wind Stress Hovmoller

For that, we’ll have to look at an animation of the temperature anomaly maps for the top 300 meters of the oceans. But before we do, let me first show you what you’ll be looking for. See Figure 3. There is a pocket of warm water off the equator near the dateline. That pocket of warm water will be isolated as the equator cools. It travels slightly west and then gets “drawn” to the equator again.

Figure 3

Figure 3

And in Animation 1 you can watch that transpire. The animation starts with the May 3rd pentad (5-day average) and runs through July 22nd.

Animation 1

Animation 1

For those interested in watching the off-equatorial pocket of warm water form, see the animation here of sea level anomaly maps and temperature anomaly maps for the top 300 meters of the oceans from July Update. The “T300” maps are on the right. That animation runs from the start of the year to July 2, 2014, so it does not capture the warm water returning to the equator. That’s only happened over the past few weeks.

Animation 2 includes the equatorial cross sections for the same time period. Yes, there are other positive subsurface anomalies west of the one nearer to the dateline, so without the T300 maps, it’s difficult to speculate about how the larger warm anomaly formed.

Animation 2

Animation 2

BOTTOM LINE

Regardless of where that warm anomaly originated, it’s there now. The equatorial undercurrent in the Pacific (a.k.a the Cromwell Current) should now carry that anomaly to the east, where it should become a more-positive anomaly (because the water in the east is normally cooler than in the west). And if that additional warm water just south of the equator in the western tropical Pacific should also feed into the equatorial undercurrent, then there will be even more warm water to possibly fuel an El Niño for this year. (Yeah, I know, there’s lots of “shoulds” in those sentences, leading up to a “possibly”.)

We’ll just have to watch and see what Mother Nature decides to do. She’s always in control…and she’s always full of surprises.

EARLIER POSTS IN THIS SERIES

And for additional introductory discussions of El Niño processes see:

FURTHER READING

My ebook Who Turned on the Heat? goes into a tremendous amount of detail to explain El Niño and La Niña processes and the long-term aftereffects of strong El Niño events. Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables.

I’ve lowered the price of Who Turned on the Heat? from U.S.$8.00 to U.S.$5.00. A free preview in pdf format is here. The preview includes the Table of Contents, the Introduction, the first half of section 1 (which was provided complete in the post here), a discussion of the cover, and the Closing. Take a run through the Table of Contents. It is a very-detailed and well-illustrated book—using data from the real world, not models of a virtual world. Who Turned on the Heat? is only available in pdf format…and will only be available in that format. Click here to purchase a copy. Thanks. (I also am very happy to receive tips or donations.)

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74 thoughts on “The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

  1. I sure hope we can enjoy an El Niño. I would love to have a winter in the Midwest with mild temps. and greatly reduced snowfall. It would be great if my snow blower could be inactive all winter and remain in the corner of my garage. Global warming in the winter time would be wonderful.

  2. Until there is a significant slackening of trade winds there is not going to be a Nino. While they are slack in the far western Pacific, they are basically nominal elsewhere. Still looks like more “La Nada” to me at least for the next several weeks.

  3. Oops, forgot. Over the past week, sea surface temperature anomalies [correction: sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific] have dropped well below zero:

  4. Nominal trade winds, enlargement of antarctic down welling cold is pushing the SH jets closer to the equator effectively breaking up any chance of an oscillation occurring. Enlargement of arctic cold area has already begun pushing the NH jets to the equator. By the time we reach equinox there will be opposing forces that will not allow oscillation to begin.

    IF the area of cold water intrudes from the north this warm pocket will be depleted in short order. (and this one is likely to occur if we get a hurricane formation.)

    El NOPE!

  5. Fascinating, as always. One question: Ian Plimer told me some years ago that seismic tremors became more active in the Pacific for six months before each el Nino. Is this a possible cause for the warmer water every few years; and, if not, what does cause it?

  6. Thanks Bob!

    I’d also be interested in seeing Joe Bastardi’s analysis of this. Wouldn’t mind a milder winter and I have friends in California who could use the rain.

  7. Monckton of Brenchley, you have to be kidding. I get more hot flashes in the six months before each El Nino. Wonder what that connection is between my hormones and the top few meters of the equatorial Pacific ocean.

  8. The odds of an El Nino seem to be shrinking daily. For some reason, there was never an “atmospheric” hook up.

  9. Monckton of Brenchley says: “Fascinating, as always. One question: Ian Plimer told me some years ago that seismic tremors became more active in the Pacific for six months before each el Nino.”

    Hi Christopher. I’ve never seen seismic data that confirms or contradicts the statement, nor have I ever seen it mentioned before now.

    Regards

  10. It looks like the El Nino is dead now.

    But that warm patch you mentioned should recirculate toward the equatorial Pacific Warm Pool area. There is a monthly animation of this counter-current at 8S from Godas – every month going back to 1979. Kind of hard to see what is going on in here but that is what it does. Its a long animation so it is only for those truly interested in this.

  11. El Nino is caused by a slackening of the trade winds that blow from East to West along the Pacific ocean equatorial band. This video gives a history of the discovery and developing understanding of the root cause of trade winds, the Coriolis Force.

  12. This video explains why the trade winds slacken due to weakened and reversed pressure systems along the equatorial band.

  13. And finally, this is a Yale presentation the delves deeper into El Nino and La Nina processes.

  14. There is also a song dedicated to this topic but it was so pot smoking stupid I just can’t paste the youtube here and call myself intelligent. If you want to venture into such a weird realm, use the following search phrase at youtube.com. If you’re like me, you will slap yourself for watching it.

    EL NINO – PERFORMED BY ‘BODY’

  15. I remain very confident that weatherbell.com forecast for an enso event similar to 02-03 and 09-10 is on the way. This is a cold pdo/meI REACTIVE event, a bounceback similar to how la ninas during the time of the warm pdo/met periods can occur. We are highly unlikely to have a super nino until the PDO gets ready to flip for good again, Basically we are seeing what we have seen before if you go back and look at the 50s-70s. The warmest of the events, such as 57-78, 65-66,72-73 collapse quickly. The very nature of the enso with the warming where it is when the decadol signal of the PDO is cold, invites the destruction of the warm water pool. YOU MUST HAVE SOME SOI LINKAGE because if not, then the warm subsurface water simply cools coming to the surface and you just saw that. There should be a few months of linkage in the fall, as the water is cooling a bit around Australia and this will lead to the higher pressures needed to link the SOI So yes it is coming and I think our those analogs will prove to have had merit. Please remember, my counters have been to take apart the Super Nino crew which since 1997 has been wishcasting super nino though the cold guard lead by Hansen apparently have new heirs to carry on. No one said there would be no el nino and to be frank, this is how we felt it would evolve, because we kept harping on the lack of coupling ( linkage) that should occur through in the coming months.

    That warm water pool is not by itself that significant, as if there is no linkage to the SOI, it will cool again, only it isnt as warm as the one that set some flipping out back in April.

    BTW there is a reason they call it “el nino” it shows up later in the season but the ones that do are not the super nino’s and that is where the main thrust against Trenberth etal, was.. that it was irrational exuberance given the physical players on the field to be yelling about super ninos..IMO ( Joe D’s too)

    cheers

  16. I return to an earlier observation I have seen in the El Nino data. It appears that the amplitude of El Nino’s generally increased up until the 1998 El Nino. Since then the amplitudes have generally decreased. This observation appears to mesh with Bob Tisdale’s discharge/recharge phenomenon. The tank empties in stepwise fashion with each step being steeper up to a point (thus also connecting to the increasing stepwise global temperature series). The tank hits a peek amplitude then slowly slides down as measured by El Nino amplitude thus connecting to the pause. What conditions of discharge/recharge would have to be in place for global temperatures to fall?

    hmmmmm.

  17. Thank you for this article. It answers my question on your last thread.
    Yes, the El Nino may be happening – the predictions aren’t wrong – but the size of the temperature anomaly looks like it will be weaker than would have been expected last decade.

    Interesting. And it looks like we are beginning to get an understanding of this and are able to make worthwhile predictions. This is progress and you seem to be at the forefront.

  18. It has taken me some time to learn how to read Hovmoller graphs. See Figure 2 – Wind Stress Hovmoller. Think of it as a flip book animation but shown on one page instead of several. Play the animation by slowly scanning down the graph to see how things change or move locations over time designated on the y axis in the geographic area span designated on the x axis.

  19. Pamela Grey at 9:25
    A wise person told me “THOSE ARE NOT HOT FLASHES those are POWER SURGES ! ”
    I’m sure you agree…..(: < ))

  20. re: volcanic events and El Ninos
    Milodonharlani, a super large equatorial eruption in the Indonesian area appears to be able to initiate an El Nino event, likely due to disrupting the atmospheric pressure cell mechanism that drives normal trade wind conditions from East to West, IE the western Pacific ocean high pressure cell and its interaction with the Coriolis Force setting up the Walker Cell equatorial circulation. It seems that ash and sulfur obscuring the Sun is the primary agent, which makes sense.

  21. Very grateful to Milodonharlani for the early volcanism references: there have been many more since. The notion is not entirely implausible: there are 3.5 million undersea volcanoes, many of them along the Pacific ring of fire. If there is a link, it will be interesting to look at the post-1979 data both for earthquakes and for global temperatures to see how good the correlation is.

    The largest volcano by ground footprint in the solar system was discovered just last year – in the sea off Japan. So it would not be prudent to dismiss the idea of variable direct volcanic heating of the oceans. I do not think a mere fluctuation in the trade winds would have been enough to push global temperatures up relatively steeply during the Singer event between 1993 and 1998.

  22. Bob, you are indeed sweet to think that way. On the up side, it makes us old gals useful on cold winter nights. Better than a hot water bottle.

  23. Monckton, your thinking would be wrong. A slackening of trade winds brings billions of tons of warm water to the vast Pacific surface. Of course that heat would be enough.

  24. DMI has put up a hi-res ocean SST page which uses all of the satellite data they can get their hands on. Probably better than anything else I have come across recently

    Click “Sea Surface Temp (SSTs) to “Sea Surface temp (Anomalies)” and then “loop” for the last 30 days animation. Might have to play with the settings and/or save settings to get what you want.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

  25. The ENSO, the Trade Winds and the Equatorial Upper Ocean Temperature Anomalies are all liked together.

    Compare the ENSO to the Pacific Trade Wind Index from 1979 to June 2014.

    Compare the ENSO to the East Pacific Equatorial Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly.

    Compare the Trade Wind Index to the East Pacific Equatorial Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly.

    They are all operating at relatively the same timeframe other than the Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly is usually leading by a month or two. And then the pattern that allows the East Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly to rise or fall is set-up to occur months in advance. Look at the pattern from February 2014. It is July now, but it was already in place in February.

    This is the driver of the ENSO.

  26. lemiere jacques says:
    “did anybody ever predict a nino / nina accurately?”

    Yes, I did, the 2009-2011 ENSO, an El Nino that I also said would be followed by a La Nina. I did that back in 2006.

    The 2009-2011 ENSO event I forecasted featuring El Nino, and then followed by La Nina, broke all kinds of precipitation records in Australia along with record damage in other affected regions.

    The reason why NOAA and other climate centers cannot forecast ENSO is because they do not understand what the ENSO cycle is an effect – not a cause – which is why their computer models fail consistently and it is also why NOAA and other climate centers have never forecasted an ENSO cycle in advance.

    I will explain what the ENSO cycle is and what to look for to forecast it for those interested, but anyone who is must learn astronomic forecasting, for that is the only way to accurately forecast these climate events.

    The ENSO cycle is a decadal climate event and does not happen every year. Rather, this climate change in action comes every 11 years, according to solar-planetary cycles.

    It is critical for anyone who wants to forecast accurately, to know that the ENSO cycle is not an internally driven or chaotic phenomenon.

    It is a solar-magnetically driven climate event that begins with the upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and results in impact on the N/S annular modes.

    The ENSO cycle is therefore a proven thermal/kinetic energy exchange.

    It is externally forced and is a circulatory response to conserve angular momentum that is relative to the planetary surface in rotation and then processed through Earth’s highly variable and fluid atmosphere.

    The forcing is done by changes in meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that means planetary wave action:

    Stationary planetary waves are excited in the midlatitudes, propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics.

    The impact these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled. Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength.

    A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability.

    Here, both phenomena are closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell.

    The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO. As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event.

    ENSO, both El Niño and La Niña phases are planetary climate change in action. NOAA makes the great mistake of thinking that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is linear – but it is NOT.

    ENSO is a major climate system that is forced and responds to fluctuations from the Sun. That is the cause.

    You must first know the cause to ascertain the effects, which are lastly seen in sea surface temperatures when the ENSO cycle is in effect.

    Also, NOAA makes the serious error of calling ENSO, when not in action, ‘climate neutral.’

    Understand this: NOAA and other climate centers apply ‘weather reporting’ (already in action climate events) in place of forecasting major climate events like the ENSO cycle.

    Look to the atmosphere to call an ENSO. Those who are even ahead of that look to outer space and the condition of the Sun and planetary configurations that relate to a major climatic event like ENSO. That is what I do and it is why I can forecast climate events years in advance, by means of astronomic forecasting.

    The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña are externally-forced climate phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Observation of the climate event of warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, show how the warmer waters slosh, or rather oscillate, back and forth across the Pacific.

    Warmer than normal central and eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs, that record weaker low level atmospheric winds at the Earth’s equator with enhanced convection across the entire equatorial Pacific, also known as El Niño.

    The La Niña phase records stronger low level atmospheric winds along the equator with decreased convection across the entire equatorial Pacific showing a suppressed southern jet stream with cooler than normal SSTs along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

    The problem for centers like NOAA is that they primarily depend on sea surface temperatures (SST) readings, which are deceptive, which is why they bust on calling for an ENSO.

    SST readings change flux values, especially during the vernal and autumnal equinoxes, and when climate centers try to call an ENSO (which is a decadal climate phenomena, not yearly) they mistake any oscillations as ENSO, which is why they bust because ENSO is NOT climate neutral. Again, ENSO is a large scale variability in the circulatory system and is a proven thermal-kinetic energy exchange.

    Rather, you must look to the upper atmosphere to forecast an ENSO.

    The reason why NOAA and other climate center’s computer models are so horrendous on ENSO is that their models are NOT programmed to understand ENSO.

    They take the initial condition and then apply their perturbation hypothesis to attempt to forecast, but their computer models are based on a useless application of the given boundary condition they use to project from.

    Again, they use system dynamics that drive the ENSO climate state rather than the other way around. It’s ass backwards.

    They prove this every single time in their attempts to forecast climate events like ENSO, and it is also the reason why they bust year in and year out on seasonal forecasts.

    I keep repeating to all the same thing, and that is this:

    THAT THE SUN IS THE CAUSE OF ALL CLIMATE EVENTS.

    That is also the metric for the ENSO cycle.

    For instance, the fluctuations of solar wind speed is directly connected to geomagnetic activity that applies to major Earth atmospheric changes to a ENSO cycle.

    Solar wind speed has been monitored by American satellites since the mid-1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed show enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days, and at the harmonics of 13.6 and 9.1 days.

    The amplitude series are modulated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with a period of 1.75a (21 months) as bispectral analysis shows.

    A 1.75a QBO component is also found at the equatorial and zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component with a period of 2.4a (29 months.)

    The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the Earth’s electric circuit and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux, and particle precipitation.

    For a further analysis, a series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as a function of time.

    Now, the maxima of the solar wind QBO series are correlated to those of the ENSO cycle index.

    And, analysis has shown that the solar wind QBO trigger the ENSO cycle.

    This comes BEFORE SST variation readings, which NOAA uses to try to guess if an ENSO cycle is beginning, and every year they are duped into thinking this without understanding that the ENSO cycle is a DECADAL CLIMATE EVENT directly correlated to the Sun-Jupiter 11-year cycle.

    There are additional planetary modulation signals if it will be a weak, moderate, or strong El Nino, or La Nina, or one after the other, or just the warm oscillation, or the cold oscillation.

    Another metric links to the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO. The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon known as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of ENSO in a long simulation of a coupled model.

    The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO.

    The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event.

    The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events.

    The important thing to know is that NOAA does NOT use the proper metrics so they cannot forecast ENSO, much less seasonal weather, or yearly weather. Look at the bust on the so-called ‘super El Nino’ which did not develop.

    Again, the base their musings on SST variations and then they guess if it is going to turn into an ENSO cycle, but the ENSO cycle is decadal, it does not come every year, but they continue to state that the ENSO cycle is essentially always with us every year in some form or the other and it DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY.

    Now, the next very big climate story to come will be the emergence of what I also have been forecasting for years – GLOBAL COOLING.

    I’ve been forecasting that global cooling will officially become the Earth’s new climate regime in mid-December 2017 and will last 36 years.

    These events, with the Sun going into a hibernation phase at solar cycle #25, just as solar cycle #24 arrives at mini-maximum.

    Global cooling will usher in a break to our interglacial era.

    It’s going to get much colder and wetter throughout much of the planet and colder and drier in other regions.

    As for the ENSO cycle, I have forecasted that the next one will be a major La Nina, and the first ENSO cycle of the cold oscillation phase of the global cooling era.

    My forecast for that La Nina will occur in 2020-2022 and last for about 2.5 years. It will be the reason for the very cold and long winter of 2021-2022 in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere will also see a brutal winter in 2022.

    We got a taste of the kind of winter during the trending to global cooling in 2013-2014 in North America where all kinds of records were broken. Current winter records are now being broken in the southern hemisphere was well.

    At this time we are still in transition between solar-forced global warming and solar-forced global cooling, which accounts for the ‘extremes of weather’ that I’ve been writing and forecasting on for years now.

    Anyone who wants to understand the ENSO cycle must know and understand what is happening with the Sun, the planets and the conditions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field.

    You will not gain any knowledge of El Nino or La Nina by treating the effects as ’causes’ which is the reason why 99% of those who try to forecast these climate events fail to do so.

  27. Take a look at both MTSAT and GOES east – once again, cyclones are trying to form, off the coast of central Mexico and East of the Southern Phils. These events take ( I believe ) a significant amount of surface heat from the ocean. Perhaps this is a contributing factor as to why El Nino is / is going to be a “bust” .

  28. Theodore White says:
    July 26, 2014 at 12:38 pm

    I’m not sure that the sun causes all climate events, but IMO its variations & various modulations thereof are the primary driver, insofar as climate is driven. Among the modulations are earth’s orbital & rotational mechanics, cosmic ray flux from our planet’s position in the Milky Way & plate tectonics.

  29. Pamela Gray says:
    July 26, 2014 at 12:56 pm

    …the moon is in the 7th house…

    I saw saw “solar” and “planetary” ; i didn’t see “lunar’ or “moon”
    Better read it again . . . :-)

  30. Key words: “…what is happening with the Sun, the planets and the conditions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field,” Ergo the moon is in the seventh house. And I am barred from singing it.

  31. Pamela Gray says:
    July 26, 2014 at 12:56 pm

    The particle physicists & astrophysicists at Harvard & at Stanford’s linear accelerator who used to have Web pages on the climatic effects of magnetic field modulation of cosmic ray flux are not hairy hippies.

  32. milodonharlani replies to Monckton of Brenchley: “The hypothesis linking El Niños & volcanism has been around at least since 1988…”

    Thank you for the link to the Times article about the possible relationship between subsurface seismic activity in the Pacific and El Ninos. I’d never heard of it.

    I’ll change my earlier reply to Monckton of Brenchley: Christopher, having now seen evidence of the early hypothesis, I haven’t seen any recent studies to support it, so I don’t believe it’s being researched actively. Researchers are still focused on the interruption in the ocean-atmosphere coupling (i.e. westerly wind bursts) as the initiator of El Ninos, and there is lots of evidence to support it.

    Cheers.

  33. I’m starting to think there’s a huge underground society of people who worship the Sun as the all powerful much as other people worship CO2 as the all powerful. Those two camps should get together and exchange notes now that I think about it. /sarc

  34. Pamela Gray says:
    July 26, 2014 at 9:25 am

    Monckton of Brenchley, you have to be kidding. I get more hot flashes in the six months before each El Nino. Wonder what that connection is between my hormones and the top few meters of the equatorial Pacific ocean.

    FWIW, here is an extract from an article by Mike Foster in the (absurdist) Weekly World News of July 29, 2003, page 9:

    Women’s Hot Flashes Cause Global Warming!
    …………..
    “There are more than 900 million middle-aged women worldwide in the early stages of menopause who are experiencing what is commonly known as hot flashes on a regular basis,” professor of meteorology Dr. Cyrill Sanders told a convention of environmental experts in Osaka, Japan.
    ……………..
    The researchers acknowledge that the contribution of each woman to the rise in temperature is minuscule–less than .0000000023 degrees Fahrenheit per year. But when that number is multiplied by 900 million the result is a yearly temperature increase of more than two degrees.
    ……………….
    The study has been greeted with skepticism by Sanders’ fellow scientists . . . . And the researcher’s conclusions have feminists hot under the collar.

    “This is what happens when scientific research is distorted by sexism,” says Dr. Brigitta Watson, a 49-year-old British scientist who attended the conference . . . . “To lay the blamer at the doorstep of menopausal women is the act of a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal.”

  35. PS: Here are a few other absurdist headlines from the Weekly World News:

    Second-Hand Gas Kills 130,000 Americans a Year: Flatulence Crisis Hits Epidemic Proportions

    Meat-Eating Lions Devour Vegetarian Missionaries

    Whatta Gas! “My Boyfriend Floated Away After Inhaling Helium Balloons!”

    Idiots Forming National Union: America’s 50 Million Dummies Unite!

    Granny Builds a Super Bicep Playing Slots

    World’s Smallest Cows: Farmer Breeds New Mini-Cattle That Stand Just 18 Inches High!

  36. Theodore White says:
    July 26, 2014 at 12:38 pm
    =======================================================
    Thanks for sharing that. My forecast for the next La Nina is for late next year. Also, El Nino should warm up at the end of this year or early January, and will then peak in April. Solar influences are an important influence, as you point out.

    @ milodonharlani…several years ago I had voiced a similar question as Monckton of Brenchley asks. I was politely told in the ensuing comments that there was no way. The thought that I had was ” can an oceanic temperature change of enough magnitude lead to contraction or expansion in a large enough portion of base bedrock to cause additional quake stresses?”.

  37. Its over. Will be lucky to classify as a weak El nino.

    That subsurface warming will amount to nothing at all.

    Whats interesting is that we are seeing rapid cooling and yet the cooler waters haven’t surfaced yet.

    So 1 and 2 will cool now and spread west, and will counter any warming to follow.

    My only question is can we have a La nina next year of any significance without an El nino first?

    Probably not.

  38. We could really use a strong El Nino here in California to end the drought. Weak El Ninos don’t necessarily bring wet winters while strong ones generally do. It seems hope is fading – or has faded – for a strong El Nino. The picture should be much clearer in a couple of months.

  39. @ Sweet Old Bob says:
    July 26, 2014 at 11:06 am

    Rarely do I read something that is so profound as to affect the power struggle between husband and wife. Yet now I have! Many thanks! I will use it. ;-)

  40. Theodore White
    Nice compilation! I endorse most of it as I have also got similar results by using an Artificial Neural Network.
    ENSO is driven mainly by tidal and by electromagnetic solar forcing.
    It is amazing for me to see that the establish climate community are what I call thermodynamic and fluid dynamic fundamentalists and that is the reason that they are so ignorant of what it is that drives climate change and changes in ENSO.
    The reason that today’s so called climate scientists are unable to link tidal and solar effect to climate change and ENSO is because in order to find this out they have to go outside of their area of competence and they refuse to do that, not least by ideological reasons.
    That is why they are going to continue to fail in their predictions as long as they ignore and avoid to understand the real dominant drivers of the climate and ENSO.

  41. Theodore White and others, thank you for doing real science. That our world has but one source of energy, and it’s moods and perambulations control our climate and well being seems to be forgotten by many. Those that take the sun as a constant with minor variations that do not affect our climate, and blame mankind are barking mad.

  42. Theodore White says:
    You will not gain any knowledge of El Nino or La Nina by treating the effects as ’causes’ which is the reason why 99% of those who try to forecast these climate events fail to do so.

  43. well, being a good ol’ boy, all i know is what i see in and around my yard:

    it’s been cool most of the spring & summer, with June Gloom well into July, and still making an occasional appearance.even now. we’ve had a few warm/hot spells, but a good portion of those have been monsoonal, which is NOT normal (not unheard of either, just rare, like once every few years).

    IOW, this summer is pretty much a replay of last summer here in The Valley, like totally, and if #Failifornia is going to get an El Nino this Christmas, Mother Nature is going a good j*b of hiding it.

  44. I speak for Californians when I say, I hope we get at least a mild El Niño. We could use some rain. (And it’s definitely been more humid than usual here in So Cal, so…we’ll see.)

  45. Ashby, the dissertation you linked to explains the role of aerosols from explosive volcanic activity in the equatorial band triggering an El Nino event. This has been modeled and the likely mechanism is known. It is why some areas of Earth are warmed by such an event but then grow cold in subsequent years as aerosols continue to spread and less warmed waters make there way through the global oceanic currents and circulation highway. The takeaway key is that the volcanic explosion has reach into the stratosphere and disrupt the Low West and High East pressure systems that kick the trade winds up a notch and in the normal range. When those dual West/East pressure systems are weakened which in turn disrupts the Walker cells, is when El Nino is triggered.

  46. To further explain, the aerosol cloud gets over the top of the West Low Pressure system that normally sits over the Indonesian islands coast lines. It is a combination of the warm pool and solar heating there that forces warmed air to shoot up thus leaving low pressure below the building cloud tops. This low pressure beckons to the trade winds in the lower troposphere to fill that void, thus keeping the entire Pacific equatorial band in the normal or La Nina range. When the aerosols block the sun above the cloud tops, that low pressure is lessened because surface air is no longer being warmed by the sun. So the trade winds slacken and an El Nino is triggered.

  47. Actually I mislabeled. The aerosol substance is called a “veil” not a cloud, “…the aerosol VEIL gets over the top of the…”

  48. Goodness my grammar sucked in those comments. I just got back from rounding up a naughty herd of market lambs that got out of their enclosure and into timothy and alfalfa fields so my writing skills obviously took a time out for a while.

  49. milodonharlani says: “The hypothesis is still being actively investigated….”

    Your first and third links are not about subsurface volcanos, which is the topic of discussion, and you second link is nothing more than speculation that overlooks the fact that the warm water for an El Nino comes from the west Pacific Warm Pool, not the eastern tropical Pacific.

  50. Another discussion thread about ENSO with no mention of Peruvian upwelling. That is the best metric of what’s really happening in ENSO. Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo are closest to the mark with their prediction of a reactive La Nina. The question here is whether this recent weak and abortive “el Nino” had the necessary strength to cause a reactive upwelling-driven La Nina.

    As for the new small western subsurface warm pool. If it surfaces in the west it will only strengthen the trades. If it is borne eastwards subsurface it won’t revive el Nino but may prolong its death. This could have the effect of making the responsive La Nina stronger. If this La Nina starts about now then it will likely be weak or moderate, but if its onset is delayed till the end of the year then we could be looking at a strong upwelling-driven La Nina. This is because a nino-nina transition around Christmas-new year resonates with the phase locking of ENSO to the annual cycle.

  51. A very nice touch, Bob, ‘Come along, I’ll show you’. You are attracting people who can understand you.
    =============

  52. phlogiston says: “Another discussion thread about ENSO with no mention of Peruvian upwelling. That is the best metric of what’s really happening in ENSO.”

    And there are reasons for that. If you were to plot the sea surface temperature data for the Peruvian coast and compare it to an ENSO index (NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies for example) I believe you’ll find that sea surface temperatures off the Peruvian coast are a poor ENSO index, because they are influenced by the Peruvian upwelling. The sea surface temperatures off the Peruvian coast also fail to capture central Pacific El Nino events (El Nino Modoki). As a result, the correlation between NINO3.4 data and the data for the Peruvian coast is only 0.55. And as you’ll note in the following graph, sometimes the Peruvian coastal data leads the ENSO index, and sometimes it lags. Sometimes it’s out of phase with ENSO, and sometimes it’s in phase.
    NINO3.4 v Peruvian Coastal Waters
    Therefore, there is no reason to include a discussion of the Peruvian coastal waters in an El Nino post.

  53. Bob Tisdale says:
    July 28, 2014 at 3:22 am
    phlogiston says: “Another discussion thread about ENSO with no mention of Peruvian upwelling. That is the best metric of what’s really happening in ENSO.”

    Therefore, there is no reason to include a discussion of the Peruvian coastal waters in an El Nino post.

    I was criticizing more the thread discussion than your article.
    Also I greatly appreciate the data you posted on Nina 3.4 and the Peruvian coastal waters.
    Last time I checked, Peruvian upwelling was one half of the coin of the Bjerknes feedback (which I first learned about from you) the other side being the trade winds.
    And as we all know, the Bjerknes feedback is the central engine of ENSO, to which everything else is secondary.
    And yet – we have huge volumes of hot air in the discussion thread about the trade winds and silence about Peruvian upwelling. Why this strange asymmetry? That was what prompted my comment.
    We even have significant time given to discussing if el Nino is sun-spot driven and happens regularly every 11 years – or if it is caused by oscillating volcanic activity. Or magnetism, or any other of the usual suspects. It seems anything goes – except of course the unmentionable Peruvian upwelling.
    Did I miss the memo about Peruvian upwelling being the unmentionable taboo of ENSO?
    Is it like mentioning the war to Germans, or the name “Jehovah” to certain Jews? Anyone?

    What really confirmed that the recent incipient el Nino had finally died a death was when the anchovies returned to the Peruvian fishery, signaling the cold water upwelling had returned:

    http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html

    I take your point about el Nino Modoki possibly not involving the far east Pacific upwelling however. That is interesting and something I will have to think about.
    My take on ENSO – and I believe yours also – is that it is an intermittent nonlinear oscillator and as such is driven by the intermittent positive feedback regime known as the Bjerknes feedback.
    Therefore an approach to ENSO focusing on cause rather than effect necessarily focuses on the components of the Bjerknes feedback, the eastern upwelling as well as the trade winds, and not only SST patterns.
    The depth profiles of Pacific temperatures show that upwelling does not always correlate directly with overlying SST. Thus I don’t think that the significance to ENSO of Peruvian upwelling can be judged only by Nino1+2 – Nino 3.4 SST correlation.

    Do we imagine that the supply of Peruvian deep upwelling – linked to THC – is constant and invariant? From what is known about turbulent fluid flow and mixing this assumption is certain to be false. Since there is thus variability in the upwelling supply, as an ocean current phenomenon separate from surface meteorology, this is another potential source of a timing input to ENSO that is currently being overlooked entirely.

  54. so appreciate your rigorous, insightful work. While truth is relative, your continual effort to approach that asymptote is a star in the abyss of todays idiocracies everywhere. So my absurd curiosity asks – what’s with the month-long monsoon flow we feel in No Cali? Did someone surmise recently that that’s where all the EN heat is going? I want my ElNino back. Can’t we all please summon it back with shamanic focus?

  55. Some of it may have recirculated. Some of it seems to have ended up here on the West Coast of the US. SSTs are above normal just now. I hope it lasts into the winter and gives us a better rainy season than the past 3.

  56. Will be sucked aloft. Mr Blobby moving on, SOI starting to back off again, hoovers spinning up. See GFS/NCEP model look ahead via nullschool.

  57. Despite all the talk, there will be no El Nino this year, as I have repeatedly said.

    The next ENSO cycle will be a major La Nina, but that will not take place until 2020-2022, and will do so under the new climate regime of global cooling that will begin officially in mid-December 2017.

    Although NOAA, which has never forecasted an ENSO cycle in advance, continues to dream on about the ‘super El Nino’ that has not materialized as they and other forecasted and spread widely throughout the media, it appears that there is backing off now by the Australians, who put out this statement on Tuesday, July 29, 2014:

    “Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half
    of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and
    atmosphere have not reinforced each other.

    As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.

    While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters
    persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest
    El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end
    cannot be ruled out.

    If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

    Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker
    has shifted to El Niño WATCH status.

    This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.

    [Translated, it means that they do not know.]

    El Niño is often associated with wide scale below-average rainfall over southern and eastern
    inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia.
    Similar impacts prior to the event becoming fully established regularly occur.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold)
    since mid-June, but needs to remain negative into August to be considered an event. Model
    outlooks suggest this negative IOD is likely to be short lived, and return to neutral by spring.

    A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and
    southern Australia.”

    All the astronomic indicators which I outlined earlier on this post do not show that a ‘super El Nino’ has been coming, which is why i continued to say that we will not see El Nino this year, or next either.

    What is happening is that the world is trending toward global cooling, which is the reason for the extremes of weather we’ve been witnessing for years now as the globe cools down according to the lessening of sunspots and the Sun’s coming hibernation phase into solar cycle #25.

    In my climate forecast, the next ENSO cycle is 7-8 years away and it will be of the cold oscillation phase of La Nina and a major one at that.

  58. The hypothesis is based upon the observed correlation between El Niños & seismic activity of all kinds, not just tremors, to include thermal inputs from volcanic eruptions:

    http://www.trunity.net/sam2/view/article/51cbf4007896bb431f6aeb04/

    There is also a correlation the other way, ie of ENSO on earthquakes. From PTotRS A, 2010:

    http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/368/1919/2481.full

    Statistical analysis of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and sea-floor seismicity in the eastern tropical Pacific

    Guillas, et al

    We present statistical evidence for a temporal link between variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of earthquakes on the East Pacific Rise (EPR). We adopt a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to represent the relationship between the number of earthquakes in the Easter microplate on the EPR and ENSO (expressed using the southern oscillation index (SOI) for east Pacific sea-level pressure anomalies) from February 1973 to February 2009. We also examine the relationship between the numbers of earthquakes and sea levels, as retrieved by Topex/Poseidon from October 1992 to July 2002. We observe a significant (95% confidence level) positive influence of SOI on seismicity: positive SOI values trigger more earthquakes over the following 2 to 6 months than negative SOI values. There is a significant negative influence of absolute sea levels on seismicity (at 6 months lag). We propose that increased seismicity is associated with ENSO-driven sea-surface gradients (rising from east to west) in the equatorial Pacific, leading to a reduction in ocean-bottom pressure over the EPR by a few kilopascal. This relationship is opposite to reservoir-triggered seismicity and suggests that EPR fault activity may be triggered by plate flexure associated with the reduced pressure.

    (Sorry about delayed response. Have been on honey moon.)

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