WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm surge will also be a huge factor if the storm follows the predicted path.
Bastardi writes:
[In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.
See the graphic:
Simulated radar path:
Path from Bastardi:
[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anthony]
Latest from NHC at the time of this posting:
WTNT31 KNHC 021742 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
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“Dire,” “battering,” “ugly.” “A potential nightmare scenario.”
So hard to keep up with all these technical terms.
Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950’s? So tiring to read.
I think NHC need to have a chat with a few app developers to get a handle on what good presentation looks like.
I’m betting it wobbles a wee bit further East then the model and is weaker. Otherwise my OBX vacation in August is toast!!!
110 knots? The NHC is predicting a peak of 85 (mph!) Friday AM. Oh, I think the graphic is showing the maximum gust, not the sustained speed. Hmm, NHC says “max wind” – I think that’s highest 5 minute average or something like that.
That’s a remarkably compact storm. Track is going to be important. Also, the forward speed will reduce the wind to the left of the track by quite a bit.
REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:
Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony
Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
> Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.
They’re improving, some are up to the 1980s (monospace upper and lower case):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/021459.shtml says
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.
The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.
Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
Been tracking storms since early 50s. If the storm center remains offshore, which is predicted now, it won’t be too bad – which is good. We all know that the right hand quadrants have the highest wind speeds and highest storm surge. If it tracks as predicted, the outer banks should be OK. If it veers left, watch out. Also if it hits left in conjunction with the high tide there could be major damage.
But with the present track I don’t see any major problems.
Just sayin…
Ric, I did say max gusts at 10 meters. The actual high gusts on the hires is 117 kts, but we cant display the HIRES in non weatherbell sites unless it is excerpted from weatherbell The steady winds look to be peaked over 80 kts on the model, but tough to say.
No one said it wasnt the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house
Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
Weather reports must be able to be sent over some pretty dodgy channels, thus 7bit ascii. The formatting provides consistency for the real consumers of the reports, who need to incorporate it into other products, often with little or no sleep. Getting creative with formatting, were the only goal is to make something showy for the public school educated populous, would become a hindrance.
> Scute says:
>July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
>Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the >1950′s? So tiring to read.
The messages are still sent out on system that need a clear font. Like radio-fax or termal printers.
Joseph Bastardi says:
July 2, 2014 at 12:22 pm
Thanks for the clarification.
Indeed, but I don’t live on the coast, so I mostly worry about floods, tall trees in saturated soil, and that sort of stuff. Not a problem with Arthur for anyone, he’s not going to hang around long.
Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.
I think NHC need to have a chat with a few app developers to get a handle on what good presentation looks like.
————————————————————————————————————————-
Bwaahahahahaha ha ha… If some of the NHC hurricane specialists had their way, they’d still be using pencil, paper, and calipers. The National Weather Service is very hide bound and NHC even more so. If they can find a reason NOT to innovate or change things, then they won’t. It took them this long to get away from all UPPER CASE in their discussion, and still not all their products.
Using all caps eliminates all those embarrassing capitalization errors, I suppose.
Ric, my grandparents always prepared for the worst. Even on a sunny day fishing just a couple miles from home. They grew up being taught that way of life by their parents, one of which took to the Oregon Trail as a young man, and the other took off as a toddler with family from the colonies to the wilderness of Missouri. Prepare for the long haul worst. And you might be able to say you lived to be a ripe old age.
That annoys me too. It’s hard to read weather updates in all caps. I don’t read them, except for scanning. When will they change??
is CNN on 24×7 Arthur watch yet?
Maybe they could hire an intern (for free) to translate the updates from all caps to normal upper and lower case readable paragraphs…
Its a fortunate thing that the state engineers in NC weren’t able to find a way to close the new inlet (there were all kinds of rumors and such) that formed 2-3 years ago several miles north of Rodanthe, Old maps show there were 5 inlets between the VA border to Hatteras Inlet. Recent times there have been only 2. This newly formed inlet acts a pressure release valve when storms push water into the sounds as they approach and then push that built up water back at the Outer Banks once the storm passes as the winds shift to an offshore direction. It doesn’t take much of a storm to make a mess there and even weak storms have a way of finding something extra when the get near Hatteras.
You can access some models from these links if desired.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
ECMWF loop here >
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ecmwf&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en
“Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950s? So tiring to read. ”
If you’ve been paying any attention over the last week, it is clear that all the “crack” programming staff in USGovt climate/weather circles have been devoted to making “adjustments” to the USHCN temperature data.
They can’t be everywhere at once, ya know.
As I sit here typing this, I’m looking out through the Beaufort inlet at the Atlantic. There is a saltwater bay that extends up to around 50 feet from my seat, where there is a short seawall (around 1 foot above spring tide). I’ve pulled my boat, and we will batten down the hatches and all that, but the forecast is currently only for tropical storm force winds and some rain. I have no idea what the graphics above with the eye inside the outer banks are supposed to represent. Something unlikely, I think. We are currently expecting to have the 4th celebration “as normal”, unless they postpone it for a day if it is still windy/raining Friday evening.
rgb
Recon obs if anyone is interested.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-0601A-ARTHUR_timeseries.png
Anthony wrote:
I misparsed it. I read it like “110 knots and gusts at 10 meters!” I should have dwelled a bit more on the unlikelihood of Joe pointing out gusts at 10 meters and translated it into “gusts at 10 meters (height) greater than 110 knots,” but I didn’t.
It takes a bit to get back into a hurricane season mindset, especially since I never needed it last year!
Why does the 4th of July holiday make it a nightmare scenario? Are folks not in school or workplaces somehow more at risk? If anything, they’re more likely to be ready to evacuate. After all, the station wagon is all packed with food and gear, they just have to head west rather than east. Does the premise assume millions will be huddled on the beaches, unaware that a hurricane is approaching, and will be swept into the sea like lemmings? Or is the “nightmare” just a allusion to ruined holiday plans? Darn!
Lucky they moved that Cape Hatteras lighthouse!
[snip]