From the University of Exeter and the depart of ‘climate not mentioned’ comes this bit that fits in with what most operational meteorologists already know: the circumpolar vortex is a strong influence on weather events.
Regional weather extremes linked to atmospheric variations
New study shows drought, heat waves and cold spells linked to air flow changes
Variations in high-altitude wind patterns expose particular parts of Europe, Asia and the US to different extreme weather conditions, a new study has shown. Changes to air flow patterns around the Northern Hemisphere are a major influence on prolonged bouts of unseasonal weather – whether it be hot, cold, wet or dry.
The high altitude winds normally blow from west to east around the planet, but do not follow a straight path. The flow meanders to the north and south, in a wave-like path.
These wave patterns are responsible for sucking either warm air from the tropics, or cold air from the Arctic, to Europe, Asia, or the US. They can also influence rainfall by steering rain-laden storms.
Pioneering new research, carried out by the University of Exeter and the University of Melbourne, has shown that the development of these wave patterns leaves certain Northern Hemisphere regions more susceptible to different types of prolonged, extreme weather.
Dr James Screen, a Mathematics Research Fellow at the University of Exeter and lead author of the study, said: “The impacts of large and slow moving atmospheric waves are different in different places. In some places amplified waves increase the chance of unusually hot conditions, and in others the risk of cold, wet or dry conditions”.
The study showed that larger waves can lead to droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and western Asia exposed to prolonged wet spells. It also shows western North America and central Asia are more prone to heat waves, while eastern North America is more likely to experience prolonged outbreaks of cold.
The collaborative study used detailed land-based climate observations to identify episodes of abnormal temperature and rainfall from 1979-2012 and then examined the wave patterns during these events.
Co-author Professor Ian Simmonds, from the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, said the weather extremes they examined were month-long heat waves, cold spells, droughts and prolonged wet periods, which occurred over large areas.
He said: “The study revealed that these types of events are strongly related to well-developed wave patterns, and that these patterns increase the chance of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.
“The findings are very important for decision makers in assessing the risk of, and planning for the impacts of, extreme weather events in the future.”
‘Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes’, by Dr James Screen and Professor Ian Simmonds, is published in Nature Climate Change online on Sunday, June 22.
The study received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
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“Pioneering new research, carried out by the University of Exeter and the University of Melbourne”
Pioneering new research ??Are you kidding me ?? This is basic meteorology that anyone in the field would know this & has know this for generations. I can come to one of 2 conclusions :
1) Climatologists know nothing about weather at all
2) They are hyping the heck out of this … to get more funding.
Either way, I don’t like the implications.
Screen and Simmonds…
“These wave patterns are responsible for sucking either warm air from the tropics, or cold air from the Arctic, to Europe, Asia, or the US. They can also influence rainfall by steering rain-laden storms.”
Reading such stuff makes you wonder if these two distinguished scientists ever watched global satellite animations… It feels as if the lead author, “mathematics research fellow” is discovering weather patterns… The one eyed are leading the blinds.
Had been better had they been educated in Theories of Science as well as in basic knowledge regarding our Earth….. Basic knowledge a normal 7th grader would have learnt…. Tectonical plates movements, Sea currents resp countercurrents changes from one season to the next and within seasons as well as due to changes in saltinationfactor and water cycle effects when water reach over 27 degrees Celcius, Oblikvitet resp. Vobbling special notification needs to be considered for the first;
and btw. circle proof isn’t a valid proof, it’s a fallacie!
“the [space] is a strong influence on weather events.” I suspect the missing word is a link to the animated circumpolar vortex. I’m using Chrome.
Lance Wallace says:
June 22, 2014 at 1:36 pm
“the [space] is a strong influence…
It’s missing in the page source. It should be more than the circumpolar vortex, but a one-word synonym for “Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves”. “Jet streams” would be close enough.
Jeff, I second that. Farmers know about wavy jet stream behavior and blocking patterns. Hunters worth a damn know this stuff. And certainly mainstream meteorologists know this as the bedrock of their work.
But more importantly, who are these researchers and what is their hidden agenda with this bit of common understanding about heat waves and cold spells? I believe both are fully entrenched in the trench containing the climate catastrophe teat. The two of them have focused on AA (Arctic Amplification) research. And we all know what that means: “The Arctic ice is disappearing at an alarming rate and will soon be gone because of humans.” That the present article, what I could find of it that was free, avoids the use of anthropogenic terms. Behind the paywall I wonder. And maybe the new tactic is to avoid the use of anthropogenic terminology in abstracts so we won’t find the articles and do what we all do here so well: public “where the rubber meets the road” critique.
Sleuthing around, the lead author participated in a large event last year that focused on the very essence of the paper highlighted in this post. But trust me, these folks were trying to link extreme weather events to AGW. No doubt about it. The hidden agenda is revealed:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CE0QFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrl.noaa.gov%2Fpsd%2Fevents%2F2014%2Farctic-predictions-science%2Fdocs%2Fpdf%2FNAS%2520Linkages%2520Bet%2520Arctic%2520Sea%2520Ice%2520Loss%2520%26%2520Mid-Lat%2520Wx%2520Patterns.pdf&ei=3UGnU9HEL4qYyATlooLgCw&usg=AFQjCNGreFFmtaE18FMFhb3o5N7mvbLH9A
Sometimes I wonder if some of these “new” discoveries aren’t anything new but they just haven’t been noticed before.
Or, when it comes to the CAGW complex, the twist to connect it hasn’t been noticed before.
Cold seems to come from space just above the poles with the polar vortex “channeling” the cold down. The ozone hole surrounds the polar vortex(magnetosphere footprint) and its size is tied to vortex activity, and has nothing to do with CFC’s.. If the polar vortex is more active, I think it was called cold lock, then more of the cold ions and molecules from space reach the earths surface. -138 certainty doesnt come from the earths surface. I would imagine that there is some kind of imprint in the Antarctic or arctic ice layers if one knew what to look for.
Pioneering new research…I have a great idea!
…..call it the Jet Stream!
“New study finds atmosphere linked to weather !”
“Pioneering new research, carried out by the University of Exeter and the University of Melbourne, has shown that the development of these wave patterns leaves certain Northern Hemisphere regions more susceptible to different types of prolonged, extreme weather.”
Lawyers from “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” no doubt are preparing a letter right now.
How fascinating. It is now 15 months since I asked the UK Met Office ( based in Exeter) about the jet stream and wind patterns in relation to sucking warm air up from Southern Europe ( and Africa) or pulling cold air down from the arctic or forcing and fixing weather patterns along the jet stream boundary. I wanted to know what research they had done to identify and quantify these and any resultant temperature effects. They weren’t in a position to answer that then.
OMG who would have thunk it
Hubert Lamb wrote in the 1970s of “meridional circulation”, describing the loopy Jetstream patterns that lead to persistent high- and low-pressure systems in the upper latitudes. These systems are associated with episodes of global cooling, when the pole-equator gradient is greater than in warming episodes.
“Extreme weather” is driven by greater pole-equator gradients and by the loopy Jetstream circulation – which leads to record highs and lows due to long-term pressure systems.
Warming conditions lead to more equable weather, fewer extremes, and latitdunal atmospheric circulation
Nothing new here – move along.
This helps connect the dots http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/31/64/49/PDF/angeo-16-1212-1998.pdf Funny how these tests were carried out from the same place that spiral in Norway came from .
The northern Norwegian city of Tromso experienced a freak summer snowfall on Monday after freezing wind from the North Pole saw temperatures plummet.
It was the first time since records began that the city had seen snowfall in June. Local meteorologist Trond Lien said that sleet and snow showers hit the city on Monday night, and there has even been some snow lying on the ground. He said that the situation was “very rare”, noting that it must have been a long time since it snowed on 16 June. He added that he had found records showing that Tromso had experienced snowfall in July, but he could find nothing to indicate snow in June.
http://www.icenews.is/2014/06/22/snow-in-june-only-in-norway/
well, DUH.
Huh????!!!!
I certainly concur with the comments about this “ground breaking research”. This is basic meteorology that I had to learn in my first year meteorology courses. So now this mathematics professor has discovered basic meteorology.
Maybe I could publish a paper about my recent earth shattering breakthrough in mathematics….I call it Calculus, and am sure no one has ever done this work before.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2271.html $32 for article & PDF.
From the University of Exeter and the depart of ‘climate not mentioned’ comes this bit that fits in with what most operational meteorologists already know: the [changes to air flow patterns around the Northern Hemisphere] is a strong influence on weather events.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/carousel/nclimate2271-f1.jpg
Sorry, should have added this to link above. “Figure 1: Planetary-wave amplitude anomalies during months of extreme weather.”
Speaking of weather and alleged global cooling and the like. The records for June here are starting to look like we would’ve had more 70 degree days than 90 degree days for the entire month, which is unusual to say the least, but probably not unprecedented.
On top of that, the US in general is noticing that the high pressure domes that set up during the Summer has been mostly no-shows so far, with none forecast until early July at the least (there is Accuweather forecasting heatwaves, but their silly 40 day forecast is little more accurate than tarot cards more than a week out). Still probably not unprecedented, but a dramatic change from the blast furnace that gave us more than 50 triple digit days a few years ago, which means more wondering when that global warming is supposed to hit us.
‘The collaborative study used detailed land-based climate observations to identify episodes of abnormal temperature and rainfall from 1979-2012 and then examined the wave patterns during these events.’ If they would have gone back to the 50’s, they could have found similar wave patterns weather events. And to think, back then, we didn’t have “extreme weather events”. It was just called “weather”.
There may be hope for this young Dr. James Screen, whose middle name is “Obvious”.
Roy Spencer says:
June 22, 2014 at 4:16 pm
well, DUH.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!