![anomnight.current.small[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/anomnight-current-small11.gif?w=150&resize=150%2C58)
MANHATTAN — A Kansas State University senior agricultural economist says there’s a 70 percent chance an El Niño will arrive this fall — and that’s good news for the United States.
Jay O’Neil, an instructor and specialist at the university’s International Grains Program, says what happens with El Niño will affect worldwide crop production. El Niño, which is the warming of the sea temperatures off the coast of Peru, is expected to affect crops during September, October and November.
“El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States because it brings extra rain and moisture into the core crop-growing areas,” O’Neil said. “We’re just coming out of a four-year drought cycle in the United States and we’d like to get back to what we call trend-line yields and big crop production so there’s plenty for everybody.”
Better crop production in the U.S. would also mean lower food prices. However, other countries would experience harsher growing conditions because of El Niño. O’Neil says South America is expected to be dryer than usual, which would have an impact on the global food market.
“If South America goes dry, that would affect next year’s production worldwide,” O’Neil said.
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The current SST doesn’t show any strong signs of a strong El Niño, just a weak one off the west coast of South America but that may still change later in the year.
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If it brings more rain to texas, I’m for it!!!
(as if the earth cares what I, or anyone else, prefers)
Not seeing any evidence of any El Nino so far, just some warmish La Nada. Trade winds are still pretty much nominal in the eastern and mid-Pacific, trades actually picking up and strengthening in the western Pacific. Surface temperature anomalies are declining with a negative anomaly now appearing between 160W-170W and the warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific starting to fade. See (latest at very bottom):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif
and
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/heat-last-year.gif
and
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_jsd.gif
el NIño brings dry weather in the caribbean.. so i HATE EL NIÑO
Certainly more rain that the last couple of years in the midwest. Corn in Missouri is looking amazing.
Official forecast keep getting weaker and weaker. 3.4 index predicted to peak at….1. Down from 1.5 a month or so ago. At this rate, it may actually not happen.
Total LOL at all the idiots predicting a SUPERMANBEARPIG El Nino…
He must mean the 2015 crop year in the US. I don’t see that in the article.
Also, at the moment, the 2014 corn crop is trying to set a record.
crosspatch–bottom link doesn’t work for Google Chrome
“The current SST doesn’t show any strong signs of a strong El Niño, just a weak one off the west coast of South America but that may still change later in the year.”
That’s not what yahoo is predicting by looking at pig entrails
http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/nature/post/early-signs-point-strong-disruptive-el-nino/
Generally, there are enough offsetting rainfall changes across the globe in an El Nino or a La Nina so that it doesn’t really affect global food production. There are some local/regional price impacts but it doesn’t impact global food prices reliably enough to make it an investment strategy for example. I think the US, overall, is better off in La Nina conditions (sorry Texas and California but the (rest of the) plains is more important.
DrTorch says:
June 17, 2014 at 8:45 am
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They forget to take into account the recent issue from Porcine epidemic Diarrhea Virus….http://www.cvm.umn.edu/sdec/SwineDiseases/pedv/
It’s gets dry in some places….it gets wet in some places
..someone needs a grant to study this
Global warming , particularly in the winter months as 90% of CET warming (0.4C/century in winter against 0.05C/century in summer) is beneficial not only to agriculture but also for heating fuel usage.
On forthcoming el’Nino
How the SOI and multivariate ENSO translate into el’Nino, I wouldn’t like to say, due to lack of any in depth knowledge, but it seems to me that a high threshold of tectonic activity in the Central Pacific (bringing cool waters to the surface?) corresponds to global cooling and a low threshold to the global warming period. The‘apparent’ correlation (except for 1952 – 1954) could be coincidental, but (inmo) unlikely. There is a ‘nominal’ delay of about 4 years, but could be less ( e.g. in 2003 it may have been just one year), depending on the where the strongest disturbances are along the almost 160 degrees of the longitudinal path.
“El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States because it brings extra rain and moisture into the core crop-growing areas,” O’Neil said. “We’re just coming out of a four-year drought cycle in the United States and we’d like to get back to what we call trend-line yields and big crop production so there’s plenty for everybody.”
This doesn’t even cycle out as good within the USA, but I may be prejudiced a little with the +10″ or rain we have gotten since last week. Corn crop core areas of Iowa / Illinois / Nebraska are getting their moisture from the PDO cycle change and we really don’t need much more this month.
I’ve been following this for awhile. Does anyone actually KNOW what an El Nino will do even if it does appear? This seems like much ado about nothing.
Latitude says:
June 17, 2014 at 9:05 am
IPCC AR5 says that as CO2 increases, the wet places will get wetter, and the dry place will get drier.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Good start for feed crops here in the mid-Appalachians after a brutal winter. Plenty of moisture in most areas and escaped the common late-frost in low-lying areas. Corn will be knee-high well before the fourth of July.
Unless the trade winds respond to the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific (and they haven’t so far), this is not going to be much of an El Nino.
Other than that, nothing much to report since the last update….and I’m still waiting for GISS to provide their May 2014 global temperature anomaly so that I can post the monthly update.
Ciao!
Alarmists never factor in favorable things about supposed AGW. So they will concentrate on the imagined detriments of the warming alone.
“A Kansas State University senior agricultural economist says there’s a 70 percent chance an El Niño will arrive this fall”
I don’t see meteorologist in them credits.
Looks to me that the real news is in the northeastern Pacific and far north Atlantic. If someone predicted a record low Arctic Ice minimum, I wouldn’t dispute it. Yet NOAA is predicting greater than normal ice coverage this year.
My hunch, based on the amount of below surface warming looking like it is wimping out, I think this will be another set of bouncing back and forth El Nado/La Nada’s till something breaks away from this set-up and restarts the pendulum swing. Further, I think it is exactly in this wimpy in-between ocean behavior that may portend future cooling. Why? Not a lot of discharge left to discharge and not a lot of recharge happening.
Does anyone actually KNOW what an El Nino will do even if it does appear?
Make warmists ecstatic. With the usual evolution of fluids.
At around the current 400 ppmv CO2, there will be much better crop harvests than at 275 ppmv
The weather response of classic El Nino and La Nina conditions has been studied quite a bit. Both statistical and dynamical models capture quite a bit of the event as it progresses. The statistical models use analog years (previous years that match current conditions) as well as other calculations and data to predict the oceanic conditions and weather out to about 3 months. The weather data from analog years are most often used for agricultural planning.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oregon.gov%2FODA%2Fnrd%2Fdocs%2Fdlongrange.ppt&ei=bY-gU_mFKcuQyASDzYCoCA&usg=AFQjCNHhHqr-KPBcyM9vlgEC4lkTnBaIIQ&sig2=z6rvtziY_6PnD0iNrsxMsQ&bvm=bv.68911936,d.aWw
Go Here: Then set time to 30 days and flip the display from observed to normal. Nice start for crops.
http://water.weather.gov/precip/