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MANHATTAN — A Kansas State University senior agricultural economist says there’s a 70 percent chance an El Niño will arrive this fall — and that’s good news for the United States.
Jay O’Neil, an instructor and specialist at the university’s International Grains Program, says what happens with El Niño will affect worldwide crop production. El Niño, which is the warming of the sea temperatures off the coast of Peru, is expected to affect crops during September, October and November.
“El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States because it brings extra rain and moisture into the core crop-growing areas,” O’Neil said. “We’re just coming out of a four-year drought cycle in the United States and we’d like to get back to what we call trend-line yields and big crop production so there’s plenty for everybody.”
Better crop production in the U.S. would also mean lower food prices. However, other countries would experience harsher growing conditions because of El Niño. O’Neil says South America is expected to be dryer than usual, which would have an impact on the global food market.
“If South America goes dry, that would affect next year’s production worldwide,” O’Neil said.
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The current SST doesn’t show any strong signs of a strong El Niño, just a weak one off the west coast of South America but that may still change later in the year.
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This is old news. Seriously, Joe D and I have been on this, and using all this to show its the pacific that controls US rainfall and the state of the PDO/MEI for eternity. Idso has opined as much.
This article, describing the wet weather, directed at the Global warming drought kabal at Texas Tech and A and M, is an example
http://patriotpost.us/opinion/25957
As for the El Nino, this was another overhyped event designed to get attention to for a global temp spike. We believe this is a Modiki, typical of the cold PDO ninos, that has the MEI/PDO spike warm for a few months then right back to cool. May I remind you that since 1997, each warm enso event that has appeared has had someone from the warming side scream Super Nino, the previous 4 times Hansen, and now its a different group, but its the same story over an over again. People who do not know the weather, have not looked into what physically drives these events, seeing a pool of warm sub surface water and then rushing to show how its because of agw.
jbird on June 17, 2014 at 9:19 am
I’ve been following this for awhile. Does anyone actually KNOW what an El Nino will do even if it does appear? This seems like much ado about nothing.
What it might “do” is cause a reactive La Nina. If this is stronger than this quite weak-looking el Nino. If this happens it could signify a reversal of the ENSO asymmetry which for the last few decades has favoured el Nino. Another sign of changing times.
” SUPER EL NIÑO says: June 17, 2014 at 8:16 am
el NIño brings dry weather in the caribbean.. so i HATE EL NIÑO ”
So lets just open up the panama / south america pathway for all that warm water to go through for you and that will fix those annoying ice ages as well.
Seriously though, if Dr Easterbrook is correct (and 12+ years in his prediction is holding up) then we are in for colder & drier times for the next 2 decades. I’m afraid that he’s going to be correct.
Hmm maybe that Panama thing should be looked at.
Over here in Oz the alarmists are hoping, praying for El Nino to bring DOOM and DROUGHT so they can twerk themselves in the media as the true prophets of doom and seers of the future. Don’t give us this El Nino good news stuff! 🙂
I guess if they keep predicting it, it will happen eventually.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been wrong for a couple of years now!
Australian BOM is just Wrong
“El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States”
US is the top exporter of wheat and produces 40% of world’s corn. The world can eat more bread and corn flakes.
“South America is expected to be dryer than usual, which would have an impact on the global food market”
South America exports coffee and sugar. Drink less coffee and eat less sugar. It’s good for your health.