The National Climate Assessment report denies that siting and adjustments to the national temperature record has anything to do with increasing temperature trends. Note the newest hockey stick below.
h/t to Steve Milloy
Source: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/system/files_force/downloads/low/NCA3_Climate_Change_Impacts_in_the_United%20States_LowRes.pdf?download=1
Yet as this simple comparison between raw and adjusted USHCN data makes clear…
…adjustments to the temperature record are increasing – dramatically. The present is getting warmer, the past is getting cooler, and it has nothing to do with real temperature data – only adjustments to temperature data. The climate reality our government is living in is little more than a self-serving construct.
Our findings show that trend is indeed affected, not only by siting, but also by adjustments:
The conclusions from the graph above (from Watts et al 2012 draft) still hold true today, though the numbers have changed a bit since we took all the previous criticisms to heart and worked through them. It has been a long, detailed rework, but now that the NCA has made this statement, it’s go time. (Note to Mosher, Zeke, and Stokes – please make your most outrageous comments below so we can point to them later and note them with some satisfaction.).
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Note to Mosher, Zeke, and Stokes – please make your most outrageous comments below so we can point to them later and note them with some satisfaction.).
I dunno, Mr. Watts, Dad used to say to let sleeping dogs lie.
: > )
Puck the Magic Hockey Stick lived by the sea… 🙂
They will make a warming trend regardless of the actual data.
I wonder if people realize the adjustments are more than the claimed global warming…..
and without the adjustments……it would show cooling
“..quality analyses of these uncertainties have not found any major issues of concern affecting the conclusion..”
And if you like your healthcare plan, you can keep your healthcare plan.
I have question reagarding another graph used in the NCA report. it’s the one showing average global temperature data (black line) since 1900 with a green bar showing model predictions with natural influences only. It implies that human activity has recently caused warming. But How do they explain 1910 data which shows average temperatures much lower than it would have been with natural forces? This seems to imply that humans caused cooling just after the turn of the century. Does anyone what the reasoning is?
The Adjustment chart is really the smoking gun isnt’t it? After seeing that, it is hard to consider the surface record as credible.
The post-normal scientific method :
“If the data does not fit the theory, adjust the data.”
Yes, but the basin is getting larger so you have to add an adjustment to compensate for that. Or something.
What is their justification for a 1.6F positive adjustment?
Matt…..because you adjust up for UHI
I present The Climate Change
Disgusting.
I have written an entire Essay on this for the next book on energy and climate. Essay title, When Data Isn’t. Getting worse, steadily worse. USHCN V2 over V1, GHCN after YE2013(new nClimDiv), HadCRU4r2 over r1, Aus BOM, NZ BM, everywhere except the satellite records UAH and RSS. All cool the past and warm the present, the opposite of proper homogenization for UHI. Calculates at least 3/7 of the global record since 1900, and more likely half. Many places, cooling was turned into warming. Reykjavik, Sulina (Rumania), Darwin (Aus) some better known specific examples of complete inversion.
Latitude says:
May 6, 2014 at 11:31 am
Matt…..because you adjust up for UHI (/sarcasm)…there, fixed.
obviously they left Alaska out?
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ql5zq8.jpg
All science is Political Science when politics writes the grant-money checks.
Time to let lose the hounds.
The present is getting warmer, the past is getting cooler, and it has nothing to do with real temperature data – only adjustments to temperature data.
Sorry, my last post escaped and was incomplete.
Anthony said;
“The present is getting warmer, the past is getting cooler, and it has nothing to do with real temperature data – only adjustments to temperature data. ”
Mosh has explained to me several times why his algorithm makes it OK to cool the past but I still don’t really understand his rationale. Perhaps YOU can explain it?
tonyb
REPLY: Other than to say it is bullshit of the highest order, I can’t. In business, people would go to jail for doing things like that. Ever since Mosher joined BEST, he stopped thinking rationally about this issue. – Anthony
This is a completely GOVERNMENT-controlled report:
“USGCRP is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal agencies, which carry out research and develop and maintain capabilities that support the Nation’s response to global change.
USGCRP is steered by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR) of the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability (CENRS), and overseen by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).”
{Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/about/organization-leadership — emphasis mine}
Full of boldfaced l1es and recklessly unsupported conjecture such as this:
“Climate change is happening now. The U.S. and the world are warming, global sea level is rising, and some types of extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe.”
{Here: http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change}
it is OBVIOUSLY biased to the point of uselessness.
**************************************************************
{from my comment yesterday on this thread: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/05/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-95-new-temperature-record-of-102-in-wichita-but-look-where-they-measure-it/}
NOAA is just a propaganda machine for the Envirostalinists and Enviroprofiteers (such as windmill project investors):
For “Breezy” — NOAA’s graphic is….. you guessed it! A bunch of windmills:
from: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.448376495000446&lon=-112.07403860799968&site=all&smap=1#.U2gI0sJOVDw
(yesterday about a 3PM)
“This
Afternoon
Breezy
http://forecast.weather.gov/images/wtf/medium/wind.png
(windmill graphic)
Breezy”
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Also related are these WUWT posts:
1. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/why-the-noaa-global-temperature-product-doesnt-comply-with-wmo-standards/
2. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/05/questions-for-noaa-and-nps-death-valley-that-have-gone-unanswered-related-to-the-100-year-celebration-of-the-hottest-ever-temperature/
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HOWEVER…. TAKE HEART!
The Average American Isn’t Buying It
USGCRP Man {knock, knock, knock – front door}:
Joe the Plumber {opens door, cocks head, narrows eyes}: What do you want?
G Man: To talk to you about climate change. Trust me. I’m from the government.
JP: Yeah, sure…… . LOL!
G Man: You can feel it getting warmer, er, colder, er… more extreme.
JP: Nope. I don’t. Sorry, but you’ll have to go. You’re making me miss the game. {gentle nudge and…. firmly SHUTS the front door…. G man left standing on front porch…. alone.}
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Bwah, ha, ha, ha, haaa! CO2 UP. WARMING STOPPED. More extreme weather events — NOT.
You can SMELL the desperation — that report reeks of it, heh, heh, heh.
Thanks, Anthony.
The blade in the new hockey stick does not look robust enough for the task of turning the skeptic tide coming in.
What happened to the hockey stick of 1998? Did it move to 2014 by magic?
As with the IPCC, the Adaptation Chapter lays out the guts of planned actions. It also suggests Learning by Doing. That would be what Marxists call Theory in Action. CAGW is just the excuse.
Don’t miss the Risk Disk.
“REPLY: … it is bullshit of the highest order, … .” An-tho-ny {to TonyB at 11:46am}
Precisely!
Amen.