The big list of failed climate predictions

Reader “Sasha” responding to Jeff Alberts in comments provided a large list that I thought was worth sharing.

Submitted on 2014/04/02 at 8:37 am

The question wasn’t “what do people think is caused by global warming”, but “what was predicted by scientists and activists 25 years ago that would be a result of global warming.” Big difference.

OK. Hang on to your hat!
The original post was asking for a list of failed climate predictions, so here are 107:

FAILED CLIMATE PREDICTIONS (and some related stupid sayings)

1. “Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.”
Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, University of Potsdam, February 8, 2006

****

2. “Milder winters, drier summers: Climate study shows a need to adapt in Saxony Anhalt.”
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press Release, January 10, 2010.

****

3. “More heat waves, no snow in the winter… Climate models… over 20 times more precise than the UN IPCC global models. In no other country do we have more precise calculations of climate consequences. They should form the basis for political planning… Temperatures in the wintertime will rise the most… there will be less cold air coming to Central Europe from the east…In the Alps winters will be 2°C warmer already between 2021 and 2050.”

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, September 2, 2008.

****

4. “The new Germany will be characterized by dry-hot summers and warm-wet winters.”
Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), March 2, 2007

****

5. “Clear climate trends are seen from the computer simulations. Foremost the winter months will be warmer all over Germany. Depending of CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise by up to 4°C, in the Alps by up to 5°C.”
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 7 Dec 2009.

****

6. “In summer under certain conditions the scientists reckon with a complete melting of the Arctic sea ice. For Europe we expect an increase in drier and warmer summers. Winters on the other hand will be warmer and wetter.”
Erich Roeckner, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, 29 Sept 2005.

****

7. “The more than ‘unusually ‘warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C’”
Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment,
Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007

****

8. “Harsh winters likely will be more seldom and precipitation in the wintertime will be heavier everywhere. However, due to the milder temperatures, it’ll fall more often as rain than as snow.”
Online-Atlas of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, 2010

9. “We’ve mostly had mild winters in which only a few cold months were scattered about, like January 2009. This winter is a cold outlier, but that doesn’t change the picture as a whole. Generally it’s going to get warmer, also in the wintertime.”
Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 26 Jan 2010

****

10. “Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”
Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000

****

11. “Good bye winter. Never again snow?”
Spiegel, 1 April 2000

****

12. “In the northern part of the continent there likely will be some benefits in the form of reduced cold periods and higher agricultural yields. But the continued increase in temperatures will cancel off these benefits. In some regions up to 60% of the species could die off by 2080.”

3Sat, 26 June 2003

****

13. “Although the magnitude of the trends shows large variation among different models, Miller et al. (2006) find that none of the 14 models exhibits a trend towards a lower NAM index and higher arctic SLP.”
IPCC 2007 4AR, (quoted by Georg Hoffmann)

****

14. “Based on the rising temperature, less snow will be expected regionally. While currently 1/3 of the precipitation in the Alps falls as snow, the snow-share of precipitation by the end of the century could end up being just one sixth.”
Germanwatch, Page 7, Feb 2007

****

15. “Assuming there will be a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, as is projected by the year 2030. The consequences could be hotter and drier summers, and winters warmer and wetter. Such a warming will be proportionately higher at higher elevations – and especially will have a powerful impact on the glaciers of the Firn regions.”

and

“ The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”
Scinexx Wissenschaft Magazin, 26 Mar 2002

****

16. “Yesterday’s snow… Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often than it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many ski lifts this means the end of business.”
Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 8 Aug 2006

****

17. “Spring will begin in January starting in 2030.”
Die Welt, 30 Sept 2010

****

18. “Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters” … “Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.”
Schleswig Holstein NABU, 10 Feb 2007

****

19. “Good bye winter… In the northern hemisphere the deviations are much greater according to NOAA calculations, in some areas up to 5°C. That has consequences says DWD meteorologist Müller-Westermeier: When the snowline rises over large areas, the bare ground is warmed up even more by sunlight. This amplifies global warming. A process that is uncontrollable – and for this reason understandably arouses old childhood fears: First the snow disappears, and then winter.”
Die Zeit, 16 Mar 2007

****

20. “Warm in the winter, dry in the summer … Long, hard winters in Germany remain rare: By 2085 large areas of the Alps and Central German Mountains will be almost free of snow. Because air temperatures in winter will rise more quickly than in summer, there will be more precipitation. ‘However, much of it will fall as rain,’ says Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.”
FOCUS, 24 May 2006

****

21. “Consequences and impacts for regional agriculture: Hotter summers, milder plus shorter winters (palm trees!). Agriculture: More CO2 in the air, higher temperatures, foremost in winter.”
Dr. Michael Schirmer, University of Bremen, presentation of 2 Feb 2007

****

22. “Winters: wet and mild”
Bavarian State Ministry for Agriculture, presentation 23 Aug 2007

****

23. “The climate model prognoses currently indicate that the following climate changes will occur: Increase in minimum temperatures in the winter.”
Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony Date: 6 July 2009

****

24. “Both the prognoses for global climate development and the prognoses for the climatic development of the Fichtel Mountains clearly show a warming of the average temperature, whereby especially the winter months will be greatly impacted.”
Willi Seifert, University of Bayreuth, diploma thesis, p. 203, 7 July 2004

****

25. “Already in the year 2025 the conditions for winter sports in the Fichtel Mountains will develop negatively, especially with regards to ‘natural’ snow conditions and for so-called snow-making potential. A financially viable ski business operation after about the year 2025 appears under these conditions to be extremely improbable (Seifert, 2004)”.
Andreas Matzarakis, University of Freiburg Meteorological Institute, 26 July 2006

****

26. “Skiing among palm trees? … For this reason I would advise no one in the Berchtesgadener Land to invest in a ski-lift. The probability of earning money with the global warming is getting less and less.”
Hartmut Graßl, Director Emeritus,
Max Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 3, 4 Mar 2006

****

27. “Climate warming leads to an increasingly higher snow line. The number of future ski resorts that can be expected to have snow is reducing. […] Climate change does not only lead to higher temperatures, but also to changes in the precipitation ratios in summer and winter. […] In the wintertime more precipitation is to be anticipated. However, it will fall more often as rain, and less often as snow, in the future.”
Hans Elsasser, Director of the Geographical Institute of the University of Zurich, 4 Mar 2006

****

28. “All climate simulations – global and regional – were carried out at the Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum [German Climate Simulation Center]. […] In the winter months the temperature rise is from 1.5°C to 2°C and stretches from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea. Only in regions that are directly influenced by the Atlantic (Great Britain, Portugal, parts of Spain) will the winter temperature increase be less (Fig. 1).”
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Press Release, Date: December 2007/January 2013.

****

29. “By the year 2050 … temperatures will rise 1.5ºC to 2.5°C (summer) and 3°C (winter). … in the summer it will rain up to 40% less and in the winter up to 30% more.
German Federal Department of Highways, 1 Sept 2010

****

30. “We are now at the threshold of making reliable statements about the future.”
Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 44, 10/2001

****

31. “The scenarios of climate scientists are unanimous about one thing: In the future in Germany we will have to live with drier and drier summers and a lot more rain in the winters.”
Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 20 May 2010

****

32. “In the wintertime the winds will be more from the west and will bring storms to Germany. Especially in western and southern Germany there will be flooding.” FOCUS / Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel, 27 May 2006.

****

33. “While the increases in the springtime appear as rather modest, the (late)summer and winter months are showing an especially powerful warming trend.”
State Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Saxony, p. 133, Schriftenreihe Heft 25/2009.

****

34. “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model … Despite appearing as part of a natural climate oscillation, the large increases in wintertime surface temperatures over the continents may therefore be attributable in large part to human activities,”
Science Daily, Dr. Drew Shindell 4 June 1999

****

35. “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000

****

36. “This data confirms what many gardeners believe – winters are not as hard as they used to be. … And if recent trends continue a white Christmas in Wales could certainly be a thing of the past.”
BBC, Dr Jeremy Williams, Bangor University, Lecturer in Geomatics, 20 Dec 2004

****

37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”
Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999

****

38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”
Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000

****

39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”
Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005

*****

40. “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.”
Star News, Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center, 11 Mar 2000

****

41. “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”
IPCC Climate Change, 2001

****

42. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”
IPCC Climate Change, 2001

****

43. “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”
IPCC Climate Change, 2007

****

44. “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”
WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007

****

45. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007

****

46. “Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008

****

47. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…
Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007

****

48. “It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers. …the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future.”
Wayne Elliott, Met Office meteorologist, BBC, 27 Feb 2007

****

49. “ If your decisions depend on what’s happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn’t be making irreversible investment decisions now.”
Myles Allen, “one of the UK’s leading climate modellers”, Oxford University, 18 June 2009

****

50. “It’s great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK.”
Keith Allott, WWF-UK, 18 June 2009

****

51. “The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon – the tallest mountain in England and Wales – may one day become no more than a memory.”
BBC News, 20 Dec 2004
[BBC 2013: “Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.”]

****

52. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.

****

53. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p. 19), and

“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix, Greenpeace, 2004

****

54. “Shindell’s model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. ‘In our model, we’re seeing a very large signal of global warming and it’s not a naturally occurring thing. It’s most likely linked to greenhouse gases,’ he said.
NASA, GISS, 2 June 1999

****

55. “We have seen that in the last years and decades that winters have become much milder than before and that there isn’t nearly as much snowfall. All simulations show this trend will continue in the future and that we have to expect an intense warming in the Alps…especially in the foothills, snow will turn to rain and winter sports will no longer be possible anymore.”
Mojib Latif, Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography, University of Kiel, February 17, 2005

****

56. Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”
Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel, 17 Feb 2005

****

57. “Rhineland-Palatinate, as will be the case for all of Central Europe, will be affected by higher than average warming rates and winters with snow disappearing increasingly.”
Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, “internationally renowned meteorologist”, Director Emeritus, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20 Nov 2008

****

58. “With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.”
Guardian, 14 February 2004
[4 January 2013: “Nevis Range, The Lecht, Cairngorm, Glenshee and Glencoe all remain closed today due to the heavy snow and strong winds.”]

****

59. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”
David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004

****

60. “For the Baltic ringed seal, climate change could mean its demise” warned a team of scientists at the Baltic Sea Experiment (Baltex) conference in Goteborg. “This is because the warming leads to the ice on the Baltic Sea to melt earlier and earlier every year.”
Spiegel, 3 June 2006
[The Local 2013: “Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record … I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season.”]

****

61. Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for Europe

Reuters, Nov 09, 2012

FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.

“The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe.”

****

62. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
Guardian, 26 August 2006.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/aug/26/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment

****

63. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p19)

“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)

Impact of the climate change in Belgium (translated from Dutch).
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004

****

64. “The hottest year since 1659 spells global doom”
Telegraph December 14, 2006
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1536852/The-hottest-year-since-1659-spells-global-doom.html

****

65. “Jay Wynne from the BBC Weather Centre presents reports for typical days in 2020, 2050 and 2080 as predicted by our experiment.”
BBCs Climate Change Experiment
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

****

66. “Cold winters would gradually disappear.” (p.4)
67. “In Belgium, snow on the ground could become increasingly rare but there would be plenty of grey sky and rain in winter..” (p.6)
The Greenpeace report “Impacts of climate change in Belgium” is available in an abbreviated version in English:
http://www.greenpeace.org/belgium/PageFiles/19049/SumIB_uk.pdf
Impacts of climate change in Belgium
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004
Climate scientist van Ypersele is Vice Chair of the IPCC.

****

68. “Warmer and Wetter Winters in Europe and Western North America Linked to Increasing Greenhouse Gases.”
NASA, June 2, 1999
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/

****

69. “The global temperature will increase every year by 0.2°C”
Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, January 15, 2007

****

70. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry. It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.”
David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
February 14, 2004
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/feb/14/climatechange.scotland

****

71. “Climate change will have the effect of pushing more and more winter sports higher and higher up mountains,…”
Rolf Burki and his colleagues at the University of Zurich
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/dec/03/research.sciencenews

****

72. “ In the future, snowdrops will be out in January, primroses in February, mayflowers and lilac in April and wild roses in May, the ponds will be full of tadpoles in March and a month later even the oaks will be in full leaf. If that isn’t enough, autumn probably won’t begin until October.”
Geraint Smith, Science Correspondent, Standard
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/british-seasons-start-to-shift-6358532.html

****

73. “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”
Dr. James Hansen, 1988, in an interview with author Rob Reiss.
Reiss asked how the greenhouse effect was likely to affect the neighborhood below Hansen’s office in NYC in the next 20 years.

****

74. March 20, 2000, from The Independent, According to Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, snowfall in Britain would become “a very rare and exciting event” and “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

****

75. September 2006, Arnold Schwarzenegger signing California’s anti-emissions law, “We simply must do everything in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late…The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”

****

76. 1990 Actress Meryl Streep “By the year 2000 – that’s less than ten years away–earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there’ll be enormous calamities in a very short time.”

****

77. April 2008, Media Mogul Ted Turner on Charlie Rose (On not taking drastic action to correct global warming) “Not doing it will be catastrophic. We’ll be eight degrees hotter in ten, not ten but 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals.”
[Strictly speaking, this is not a failed prediction. It won’t be until at least 2048 that our church-going and pie-baking neighbors come after us for their noonday meal. But the prediction is so bizarre that it is included it here.]

****

78. January 1970 Life Magazine “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support …the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…”

****

79. “Earth Day” 1970 Kenneth Watt, ecologist: “At the present rate of nitrogen build-up, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

****

80. “Earth Day” 1970 Kenneth Watt, ecologist: “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

****

81. April 28, 1975 Newsweek “There are ominous signs that Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically….The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it….The central fact is that…the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down…If the climate change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic.”

****

82. 1976 Lowell Ponte in “The Cooling,”: “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.”

****

83. July 9, 1971, Washington Post: “In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”

****

84. June, 1975, Nigel Calder in International Wildlife: “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.”

****

85. June 30, 1989, Associated Press: U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP–entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos,” said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He added that governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect.

****

86. Sept 19, 1989, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.”

****

87. December 5, 1989, Dallas Morning News: “Some predictions for the next decade are not difficult to make…Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates.”

—****

88. Michael Oppenheimer, 1990, The Environmental Defense Fund: “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…”(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers…The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”

****

89. April 18, 1990, Denver Post: “Giant sand dunes may turn Plains to desert–huge sand dunes extending east from Colorado’s Front Range may be on the verge of breaking through the thin topsoil, transforming America’s rolling High Plains into a desert, new research suggests. The giant sand dunes discovered by NASA satellite photos are expected to re-emerge over the next 20 t0 50 years, depending on how fast average temperatures rise from the suspected ‘greenhouse effect’ scientists believe.”

****

90. Edward Goldsmith, 1991, (5000 Days to Save the Planet): “By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”

****

91. April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet: “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.”

****

92. February 1993, Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution: “Most of the great environmental struggles will be either won or lost in the 1990s and by the next century it will be too late.”

****

93. November 7, 1997, (BBC commentator): “It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Niños are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Niño upon El Niño, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Niño, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years.”

****

94. July 26, 1999 The Birmingham Post: “Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people.”

****

95. October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan: “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”

****

96. Sept 11, 1999, The Guardian: “A report last week claimed that within a decade, the disease (malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world.”

****

97. March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”

****

98. 1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist: “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

****

99. 2005, Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics Foundation: “Scholars are predicting that 50 million people worldwide will be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes.”

****

100. Oct 20, 2009, Gordon Brown UK Prime Minister (referring to the Copenhagen climate conference): “World leaders have 50 days to save the Earth from irreversible global warming.”

****

101. June 2008, Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs: “you could potentially sail, kayak, or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice…is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.”
[Shortly after this prediction was made, a Russian icebreaker was trapped in the ice of the Northwest Passage for a week.]

****

102. May 31, 2006 Al Gore, CBS Early Show: “…the debate among the scientists is over. There is no more debate. We face a planetary emergency. There is no more scientific debate among serious people who’ve looked at the science…Well, I guess in some quarters, there’s still a debate over whether the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona, or whether the Earth is flat instead of round.”

****

103. January 2000 Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund commenting (in a NY Times interview) on the mild winters in New York City: “But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.”

****

104. 2008 Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) on a visit to Britain: “The recent warm winters that Britain has experienced are a sign that the climate is changing.”
[Two exceptionally cold winters followed. The 2009-10 winter may be the coldest experienced in the UK since 1683.]

****

105. June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal): “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’”

****

106. June 8, 1972, Christian Science Monitor: “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”

****

107. May 15, 1989, Associated Press: “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide [USA] two degrees by 2010.”

121 thoughts on “The big list of failed climate predictions

  1. Wow.. this post is of a quality that I’d expect from spam email. It is extremely poorly sourced. Most entries are completely devoid of context about the range of time these predictions are supposed to occur by, and there are even predictions that specify ranges of years that are still decades away, yet are somehow already considered “failed.”

  2. OMG , So many. I only read the first 10 so far and a few at the end.
    I would think there are still many more then 107

    Thanks, great reads

  3. You can’t know that those are failed predictions. They might have come true in an alternate universe.

  4. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
    Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007

    ==============

    About the only one correct, for this year at least

  5. Oh sure. All these _false prophets_ dabbled at prediction. Luckily we have Nostradamus to fall back on for the real predictions of global warming.

    Century 1 verse 17
    For forty years the rainbow will not be seen.
    For forty years it will be seen every day.
    The dry earth will grow more parched
    And there will be great floods when it is seen.

    Century 1 verse 67
    The great famine which I sense approaching
    Will often turn in various areas then become world-wide.
    It will be so vast and long lasting that they will grab roots
    From the trees and children from the breast.

  6. Phew, that’s quite a list already, and as njsnowfan says there must be a fair few more. I do like the inclusion of a few “global cooling” quotes down the list, just to remind us.

    This could easily become another Reference Page …

  7. They seem to dislike skiing very much. I would like to know the actual impact of those failed prophecies on the skiing industry. Calling to stop investment on the basis of unsupported regional models is a bit nasty (number 26).

  8. They did get one right.

    Global warming theory will produce a 1000x increase in AGW research funding while research funding on the subject of natural variability will get nothing.

  9. Re 35,
    I look forward to the alternative.

    “Belief in AGW will become a rare and exciting event. Proponents of AGW will not know what a taxpayer grant cheque is.”

    All I ask is for someone to say when the Arctic Ice cap will totally melt ( +/-) 1 year. If it does so I may change my mind about AGW. If it doesn’t melt per the prdeiction the proponent will be left at the North Pole having forfeited all their wealth and possessions ( including that of their spouse and offspring). Now who will make such a prediction?

  10. Number 98: has anyone checked this (partial pun)? There is the Czech physicist Lubos Motl, but he wasn’t born until 1973. I can find no reference for a ‘Lubos Moti’ – note the ‘i’.

  11. Are the quotes accurate? Without links, we can’t know. Great effort collecting these, but an even greater effort is required for proper documentation. A little humorous to see Lubos Motl (misspelled Moti, # 98 above) being quoted in 1969 as (apparently) supporting the catastrophe meme, since now he is viciously opposed. But maybe his next sentence would have been something to the effect of “how ridiculous these predictions are.” (I’m sure he will have a rejoinder along those lines.)

  12. Are there any fulfilled prognostications of the AGW proponents? If not, the score 0-107 will look impressive.

  13. “The question (was) “what was predicted by scientists and activists 25 years ago that would be a result of global warming.” ”

    Sad that the list needed to be padded out with many quotations made after 1990. At least one was made just 2 years ago.

  14. Sasha: With all due respect; that ain’t nuthin.

    I have 152 seperate entries in my database, with one or more predictions per entry. All told, over 300. Some have 60 predictions on winter alone. (see below)

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/04/climate-science-humiliated-earlier-model-prognoses-of-warmer-winters-now-todays-laughingstocks/

    Some are duplicated, and not all the references are given. I have references for all, but they are in another column.

    Both UAE and Hadley researchers said snow would be a rare occurrence.

    “Hansen predicted in the late 80s, that :
    “”The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.”” Then he said, “”There will be more police cars.”” Why? “”Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.””

    “San Jose Mercury News (CA) – June 30, 1989
    “A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000……… He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect… “”

    A look at Hansen’s 1988 projections.
    “From a warmist website, on Hansen’s 1988 projections:

    There are two main reasons for Hansen’s warming overestimates:

    Hansen predicted that the 1990-2000 period would see a rise of up to 1 deg F. The next decade would se 2-4 deg F rise.

    Predictions on when the arctic will be ice free. Years picked are between 2000 and 2016….

    The predictive skill of the Met Office is on the low side, 11 of the last 12 years.

    Predictions made on the “permanent drought”. Note that no one said it would never raiin, but many said that the drought was permmanent.

    More on the predictions of the “never ending drought” in Oz. Also, an explanation of why even the experts have confused causation. Warm temperatures do not cause drought, but drought causes warmer temperatures.

    An update, where the scientist stating that no predictions were made, says that the predictions made were only to the press, so don’t really count.

    “Then, talking in repsonse to Katrina: “”We’re in for a rough ride over the next 10 years.”” — Kerry Emanuel, emphasizing that the current increase in hurricanes in the Atlantic is part of a natural cycle. US News & World Report, Aug. 31, 2005

    Now, talking about the longest recorded period between major hurricane landfalls, and also includes the next 7 years in the 10 years in the first quote: Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at MIT, said the seven-year gap between major hurricanes in the U.S. is most likely just due to chance. “Seven years is simply far too short to see global warming signals in U.S. landfalling hurricane statistics of any kind,” he said via email”

    The IPCC 1990 SPM is the only one that has “predictions”. It predicted warming of 1.5 to 2 deg by 2012, over the pre-industrial value.

    “Matthew England said that anyone who says the IPCC projections are over estimates, is lying. It appears he is lying. The IPCC low end estimate of warming from 1990 is higher than current temperatures.

    From the IPCC 1990 report:
    This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1° C above the present value by 2025…”

    That should mean we would have over 0.6 deg of warming in 2012. At best, using HADCRUT 4, its 0.36, or nearly 1/2 the median estimate.”

    2001 15.2.4.1.2.4. Ice Storms
    Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms

    http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/569.htm

    1995 IPCC Draft
    accompanied in the Northern Hemisphere by a shrinking snow cover in winter.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/18/world/scientists-say-earth-s-warming-could-set-off-wide-disruptions.html

    From the 2007 AR4
    Frequently Asked Question 4.1
    Is the amount of snow and ice on the earth decreasing?
    Yes.
    Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring.

    http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter4.pdf

    However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

    “This page shows the accuracy of EC seasonal forecasts. As Tim Ball shows on WUWT, the accuracy is about the same as tossing a coin.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/08/wrong-prediction-wrong-science-unless-its-government-climate-science/

    The IPCC forecast in 1995 and 2001, that snow cover would decline.

    http://observatory.ph/resources/IPCC/TAR/wg2/569.htm#1524123

    http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/18/world/scientists-say-earth-s-warming-could-set-off-wide-disruptions.html

    Scientists Viner (CRU), and Parker (Hadley) predicted in 2000 that “children won’t know what snow is”.

    The MO just changed its long term projection , and it shows no additional warming 2013-2017, with an average of 0.43 deg C over the 1971-2000 average. This compares to the prediction they made 2 years ago, with average temps of 0.7 deg over the average.

    “The Met Office predicted that 1/2 the years 2010-2015 will be hotter than 1998. Fail.
    They predicted that 2010 would be hotter than 1998. Fail.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/global-warming
    “Nasa predicted an increase of global temps of 0.15 deg C over the period 2009-2014.

    Interestingly, they also predict a slowdown in warming, 2014-2019.”

    The MO predicted a BBQ summer in 2009. Fail.

    The EA predicted drought until Christmas, in the UK. Instead, it was a record year for rain. Fail.
    The MO predicted drier than average for April-May-June. Fail.

    Environment Canada (EC) has a site that looks at past predictions and results. Tossing a coin would be as accurate.

    “The Met Office, whe they changed the predictions for future temperature, also jigged the past predictions. Note the wite line in both charts. It is, as the text says, indicative of past predictions. In the latest chart, it seems to show that they predicted the downturn in temps in 2005. In the older chart, its obvious they were predicting much higher temps.

    While this is due to “”hindcasting””, it does show the accuracy of the models.Also the accuarcy of the descriptions, as the Met should not call them “”previous predictions””, or even “”retorspective forecasts””.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

    http://www.webcitation.org/6DWaflh2M

    A list of some of the many failed predictiosn, regarding resources.

    “Hansen predicted that droughts would occur in 1 in 3 years by 2030, vs 1 in 20 in the 50s. However, if you look at the NCDC (NOAA) drought index, the 50s were in drought 1 in 2. Also note there is no trend in droughts over the record.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=pmdi&month=11&year=2012&filter=12&state=110&div=0

    Arctic ice free by 2013.

    The met office record of predictions in 2007. Every year from 2005(?) to 2012 is lower than predicted.

    An expert in forescasting principles (he literally wrote the book), says that global warming forecasts violated 72 of 89 relevant forecasting principles.

    This guy predicted arctic ice will be gone by 2013.

    Figure 1.4 of the AR5 draft (Ch. 1, page 39) shows that te
    mperatures since 1998 have been in the lower end of all projections of the IPCC, and that current temperatures are BELOW projections.

    Hansen predicted that the largest sea ice reduction would occur near West Antarctica. In 2013, there was record ice in West Antarctica. In 2012, record ice in the entire Antarctic.

    Hansen’s seminal 1988 paper, with his 3 scenarios. For 2012, scenario A and B were over 1 deg C above the long term average. Scenario C was at 0.6 deg C. Global temps have been running under even Scenario C….

    “From page 1 of the article:
    But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.

    Did Oppenheimer state that snow falls would increase in a warming world? No, he waxed nostaligic on something gone. ”

    Shepherd, now president of the AMS, predicted that hurricanes would become more intense.

    Instead, the hurricane activity in the US, and globally, fell off a cliff, both in numbers and intensity.

    The former head of the IPCC and the Met Office predicted 80% less snow for Wales, due to warming.

    The BBC and the UCS said that “the winters of our youth are unlikely to return”.
    “From Mark Lynas:

    . . . snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . .

    Tim and his many failed predictions on Ozzie drought. It should be noted that it was because of warninsg like Flannery’s, that Australia spent billions on de-salination plants that are no longer needed. Nor was that money spent on dams for flood control, as it was thought to be wasted money.

    “From TAR, 12.5.6. Drought
    … Using a transient simulation with the NCAR CCMO GCM at coarse resolution (R15) (Meehl and Washington, 1996), Kothavala (1999) found for northeastern and southeastern Australia that the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicated longer and more severe droughts in the transient simulation at about 2xCO2 conditions than in the control simulation…


    “The BM’s David Jones, in 2008:
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/this-drought-may-never-break/2008/01/03/1198949986473.html

    As of this writing (feb 2013), Oz has exactly 0% severe drought (one of 5 lowest). A miniscule portion has Serious (in the bottom 10). ”

    2013–“I’m curiously (and a bit nervously) awaiting this year’s minimum. Will it reach the levels we saw in 2012? Or will there be a ‘recovery’ for denialist apologs to crow over? Under 1 million km2 ice–one definition of ‘ice-free’– would be stunning, but is not out of the question..”
    The IPCC famous “Glaciers Gone by 2035.”

    2013 March, this guy predicts total ice loss between 2013 and 2018.
    “Snow is a thing of the past, in 2004, according to a Lib dem.

    “”Britons will soon be left with only dreams of a white Christmas, as the chances of it actually happening become more remote. Global warming is the main reason for this shift in seasonal weather and is responsible for changing the world as we know it.


    “Schneider predicting, in the next 5 years:
    there will likely be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000
    This was in 2009.”

    “Mojib Latif (IPCC) predicted:
    “There aren’t going to be winters with strong frosts and lots of snow at our latitudes anymore, like 20 years ago.”

    Scottish ski industry is a thing of the past. In 2009.
    “This paper was quoted in AR4. Fig 3 shows that expected Antarctic ice extent decline is similar to Arctic. From the paper:
    In the SH, the models generally overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent and display, on average, a negative trend over 1981–2000. This contrasts with the observations that indicate rather a slight increase.

    The NRDC predicts a reduction in NE snow fall.

    “This Sierra Club blogger predicted that the winter of 2012-13 would be less wintry than 2011-2012, with even less snow. Major fail.

    He also predicted that arctic ice would not last through 2013.”

    The UK will look like the Med, according to the National Trust. Not in March 2013, it didn’t.
    “researchers from the Met Office, in 2012, predicted “”in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record””.


    Arctic ice to be gone by 2013.

    Hansen, in 1986, predicted 2.5 to 5 degrees of warming by 2010. Ummm…Fail.

    Are Cold Winters a Thing of the Past? (2008)
    “The Met Office predictions for winter 2013:

    For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above average UK mean temperatures become more likely.

    Ooops.”

    The Met Office warning of a dry spell in 2012; just before the wettest April on record.

    The Met Office predicted in dec 2012, that 2013 would be one of the warmest on record, with an anomaly of 0.57 deg C

    “Snow on England and Wales highest mountain, may one day be no more than a memory. (2004)

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/4112137.stm

    Fast forward to 2013.
    Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.
    Workers using two excavators tried but failed to clear the 4.7 mile (7.5km) track.
    The railway resumed operations from Llanberis last week after the winter break but they were suspended within days after heavy snow on the mountain.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-21969488
    In Feb 2012, the UK Environment secretary said that drought may be the “new normal”. 2012 ended up being one of the wettest on record.

    “This site predicted 4.5 billion deaths by 2012. Oddly, the page is no longer there. Fortunately, a screen cap was caught.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/over-4-5-billion-people-could-die-from-global-warming-related-causes-by-2012/

    Nearly 60 predictions for winter. Almost all predict less snow, more warmth.

    The EPA predicts reduced snow cover.

    The British government predicted a major heat wave by 2012, and up to 10,000 deaths.

    The 2001 TAR showed no obvious multi-year (>2 years) period where there was a cooling or even flat temps. Definitely a monotonic rise on a decadal scale.

    Hubert Lamb’s prediction of a Little Ice Age for Britain, in 1964. Lamb of course, founded the CRU.

    “Hansen said temps could rise by 1 degree by 2000, and 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.He also said that atmospheric CO2 woudl double by the late 2020s. Oops.

    Another prediction, from Macquire, is that temps would rise 3 to 8 degrees by 2030, and sea levels 4.5 feet. Going to have to hurry, to reach those numbers.. ”

    “FOI request pulled these papers from the Met Office. They are much more circumspect in the briefing papers, then in front of the press. Basically, they have no idea why its hot, dry, wet or cold. Arctic ice loss driving weather? very uncertain…. but this is currently an unknown.

    “FAQ 4.1 – Is the Amount of snow and ice on the earth decreasing?
    A – Yes. Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring”
    “The predicton in 2009 was that the Scottish ski industry was doomed.
    In 2013, they are thinking they may be open in the summer.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scottish-ski-resorts-eye-summer-season-1-2881471

    in 2014, the lifts were UNDER the snow.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26339994

    From 2004 – Polar bears will become so skinny by 2012, that they will be unable to reproduce.
    “Most climate models predicted a reduction in Antarctic ice pack. From the paper:

    average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the CMIP5 archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past…

    Al Gore predicted in 2008, that in 5 years, the arctic ice could be gone.

    John Kerry, echoing the conclusions of scientists who predict arctic ice to be gone by 2013.
    Ms. Fiqueres predicts that 5 billion people will be put into poverty by 2015, through climate change.

    All snow will be gone from Mt Snowdon by 2020.

    A number of predictions that have proved false, with references.,

    May, 2013, Its predicted that the arctic ice will be gone in two years.

    This article suggests that the peak will not be production, but demand.

    Andrew Dessler predicted in 2011, that for Texas, the rest of the 21st century would be “very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.”

    Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise between 3 and 4 degrees by 2010-2020.

    Hansen’s seminal 1988 paper, with his 3 scenarios. For 2012, scenario A and B were over 1 deg C above the long term average. Scenario C was at 0.6 deg C. Global temps have been running under even Scenario C….also predicts hotter summers for Washington and Omaha, with % chance. His summary concludes that over 0.4 deg C is the “smoking gun”.

    Predicts ice free arctic by 2015.
    the IPCC predictions in 2007, for temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones.

    “Nepstad, in 2009 suggested that AGW was drying the Amazon. Of course, the Amazon has been getting wetter since 1990.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50377/abstract
    The last National Assesment of Climate Change used models that perfromed, on average, 1/2 as well as RANDOM NUMBERS.

    “Dessler precdicted that Texas would endure permanent drought in the 21st century.
    Get used to it. The weather of the 21st century will be very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.


    “In 2009, it was predicted that temepratures would increase, over the next 5 years, and at 150% the rate predicted by the IPCC. Oops. That means it needs to warm up by nearly 0.5 deg C, in 2014.

    As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    “Hansen predicted that the world would warm 2 degrees in 20 years.
    In 1986.”

    Sure seems like the MSM and climatologists were predicting an ice age.

    First earth day and 15 predictions that never came close to reality.

    The Met Office predicted average temperatures for the spring in England of 2013. Which just happened to be the coldest in over 100 years.

    Pope predicted, in 2004, that temperatures would rise 0.3 deg by 2014. And 1/2 the years after 2009 will hotter than the record set in 1998.

    Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013.

    Met Office failed predictions. I like the one about overstating the warmth 11 out of 12 years.

    Ledan and Rind predicted, in 2009, that temps would rise 0.15 deg, which is 50% higher than IPCC rates. With one year to go, both appear to be wrong.

    “Hansen predicted in 1988, that the SE US would see above average warming:

    there is a tendency in the model for greater than average warming in the southeastern and central U.S. and relatively cooler or less than average warming in the western U.S. and much of Europe in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. …

    http://climateaudit.org/2008/01/27/hansen-and-hot-summers-in-the-southeast/

    The south eastern US has COOLED over the last 100 years, in all seasons.”
    Arctic ice predictions for 2013, by various groups. Note the Met Office predicting the lowest level of ice.

    Predcitions that the UK will get a climate, and vegetation, like that in Souhtern France or Portugal.
    I don’t think Les was talking about seasons. And yes, the arctic ice is currently at close to the second lowest level and on track to equal or exceed last year’s record breaking melt!

    A comparison of 3 successive Met Office predictions for global temperature. There is a drop from the 2010 forecast of 0.9 deg anomaly, to the 2011 forecast of 0.6, to the 2012 forecast of 0.3 deg in 2017.

    Serreze predicted that arctic ice would be gone in 5 years, in 2007.

    Hansen predicted a 10-40% loss in Antartic ice. (fig 2-4)

    Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise 2 deg by 2006, and 3-4 degrees by 2010-2020.
    In 2011, Maslowski updated his 2007 forecast of an ice free arctic, to 2016, plus or minus 3 years.
    “June 20, 2008

    “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.

    “Here is a compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future.

    Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
    “If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
    [Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
    __________________

    Canada.com – 16 November 2007
    “According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

    “And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
    [Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
    __________________

    National Geographic – 12 December 2007
    “NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”

    [Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
    __________________

    BBC – 12 December 2007
    “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

    [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
    __________________

    Independent – 27 June 2008
    Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
    “…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
    __________________

    Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
    The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
    “…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
    [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
    __________________

    Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
    “If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
    [Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
    __________________

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
    __________________

    Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
    “For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
    [Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
    __________________

    Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
    “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]


    Some claim the IPCC does not make predictions. This shows exactly where they did make predictions.

    “CCSM4 models al predict declining Antarctic sea ice.

    In twentieth-century integrations, Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979.

    “CMIP5 models predict declining sea ice. This paper balmes the differenc e between model and real world as “”natural variability””.

    http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/polvani+smith-GRL-2013.pdf
    “Predictions made to 2065, with and without ozone forcings.

    Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations

    “Once again, “”natural variability””.

    In contrast to Arctic sea ice, average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past, whether these models can be dismissed as being wrong depends on more than just the sign of change compared to observations

    “Again, the IPCC models of choice, CMIP5, show different results than real world.

    all of the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-nineteenth century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979–2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly.


    Predictions of arctic ice extent. Use the list at the left, to go back to different years, 2008 and on.
    Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise 1/2 to 1 deg F by 2000, and 2-4 deg F by 2010. Fail.

    Jan 4, 2008. “This drought may never break”. Over the last 24 months (to Aug 2013), about 99% of Oz is NOT in drought.

    “It was predicted that due to rising sea levels, the Maldives drinking water would be gone in 4 years, and the islands completely swamped in 30 years.

    This prediction was made in 1988.”

    The UKCIP predicted in 2009, based on Met Office data, that the UK would get warmer; summers warmer and drier; winters warmer and wetter. Fail.

    Hansens BAU was Scenario A, not the revionist Scenario B.

    Maslowski’s latest prediction of an ice free arctic is 2016, after his 2013 guess was obviously wrong.
    “Oops. Met office could not make an accurate decadal prediction, nearly 1/2 way through the period….

    Our results also suggest that studies of the Arctic climate based on reanalyses should be undertaken with extreme caution.””


    The many predictions of food shortages.

    Viner again making silly predictions. You would think that someone who worked for a Climate Research Unit, would know that the UK has tornadoes, and that per sq mile, it is the most active country on earth for those storms, albeit weak ones.

    Flannery also predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.

    Hansen, in 1986, predicted 3 to 4 degrees F of warming, between 2010 and 2020.

    Maslowski predicts that ice will disappear by as early as 2016.

    Krugman predicted in 1998, that the Internet would turn out to have no more impact than the fax machine. And that IT jobs would evaporate.

    “The TAR had this to say about predictions of climate:

    In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.

    The Met Office has been wrong 13 of the last 14 years, in temperture predictions, and always on the high side. Its also already been shown that ithe MO prediction that half the years from 2010-2015 would be records, to be wrong. And with 2 full years to go, and on a 6 year prediction.

    Hansen’s 1981 paper shows only about 0.1 deg of warming in 1940. The historfical record in 1997 shows about 0.5, so out by a factor of 5. Projecting out to 2010, there should be 1 deg of warming. Warming is about 0.6, Fail.

    “Skiing is doomed in Scotland. 2009 prediction.
    2014 reality, the chair lifts are buried.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26088292
    Viner again predciting the end, but of the ski industry, in 2004.

    “Matt England, explaining less than 2 years ago (2012), that global warming was right on track with IPCC projections.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3650773.htm

    Less than 2 years later, he says temps have remained steady since 2001, due to an increasing trade wind.

    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html

    At least we have a date. He says this hiatus could persist till the end of the decade.”
    “Once again, the MO screws it up. This is the winter precipitation forecast from November 2013.

    The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).”

    “This writer uses January Leading Indicators (JLI) to predict the coming year temps. This is a stock market tool, but looking at past JLI, the accuracy is not bad, with RSS and UAH coming in at about 80% correct when using JLI.

    Using JLI the temps would come in at 0.231 for UAH, and 0.214 for RSS, for the average temps for 2014.

    The MO predicts between 0.43 and 0.71.

    Hansen predicts 2014 to be warmer than 2013, and perhaps the warmest on record. 2015 will be warmer yet.”

    Some predictions for ENSO in 2014-2105, and also for record temperatures.

    The NOAA scored -22 on a scale of -50 to 100, with 100 being totally right, and -50 being monkeys throwing darts. The Sept 2013 forecast for Oct-Dec was even worse, -23.

    The Met Office predicted below average precipitation for DJF. Of course, they changed the title once the floods hit (see Google cache). Link to Met Office document is also there.

    “One more guy worried about snow fall for the ski industry. I guess he never looked outside. From a paper 2 weeks later.

    http://denver.cbslocal.com/2014/03/02/loveland-ski-area-surpasses-300-inches-of-snow/
    “In 2009, experts warned that people from the south would soon flood northern cities, to escape a warming climate. But even warmists like Krugman know that people like the warmth, and are moving there.

    http://www.globalwarming.org/2014/03/04/voting-with-their-feet-warmer-is-better/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+globalwarmingorg+%28GlobalWarming.org%29
    More on Tim’s amazingly bad predictions. Now apparently, he is trying to deny that he said what he is recorded as saying.
    “One prediction using January Leading Indicators (JLI, a financial model), and the Met Office predictions.

    MO prediction is between 0.43 and 0.71 deg above the 1961-1990 average, with a mean of 0.57 deg C

    An average of HadCRUT4, GISS and NOAA, using JLI, gives 0.537

    Qualitative JLI gives a warmer 2014, vs 2013. Quantatative JLI gives a cooler 2014 vs 2013.”
    Multiple predictions by this scientist on how the reef was doomed. Then a few months or years later, and he is “surprised” or “overjoyed” at how it recovered.
    “Not only can economists not predict the future, they could not predict the present.

    It is interesting to see that economists also predicted that countries with more regulations, woul do better in in recovering from the crisis. As it turned out, the cost of the regulations were greater than any benefit. In other words, the regulations, rather than helping, hindered the ability of business to recover.
    Bonus quote:
    In an autobiographical essay published 20 years ago, the left-leaning economist Kenneth Arrow recalled entering the Army as a statistician and weather specialist during World War II. “Some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month,” Arrow wrote. “The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance.”

    Alarmed, Arrow and his colleagues tried to bring this important discovery to the attention of the commanding officer. At last the word came down from a high-ranking aide.
    “The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” the aide said haughtily. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

    Mann predicts that temps wil rise above 2 deg C by 2036. If temps were to up in a linear fashion, the temperature anomaly will be 1 deg C by 2020.

    “Hansen predicted in 2006, that a Super el Nino would form, in 2006. Fail.

    He also tries to back out his famous 1988 predictions, where in 1988, the A scenario was BAU; in 2006 it becomes “”on the high side of reality””. In his original paper, he calls it the high side of reality, because of finite resource concerns, even though Scenario A only uses a 1.5% per year increases, vs. the 4% measured in the past century.

    In 1988, Scenario B was with some cuts in emissions; in 2006 it becomes “”most plausible””, even though no cuts occured. But, yes, it is called “”most plausible”” in the 1988 paper, but again, due to finite resources.

    http://www.klimaskeptiker.info/download/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf
    In 2008, Hansen predicted the arctic would be ice free in 5 to 10 years.
    “Arctic ice will be gone by 2015, according to this IPCC review editor, in 2013.

    In 2012, he had it a little later, at 2016.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

  15. they fail the prove predict model of science. Which is why they don’t want to talk about the science but about what is to be done to prevent ‘catastrophe’ .

  16. Anthony: I know I had a lot of URLs in the previous post, so it will get hung up.

    If you want I can also give the remaining references I have for those predictions.

  17. Here is a tip for anyone creating any long lists pertaining to challenging ‘climate science’. Remember Warmists will take a look and try to shoot it down by saying “Oh, but they aren’t even scientists but actors” or “but they didn’t actually say that as it’s not quoted” blah, blah. This is why, unless it is warranted like weather events / headlines, I try to stick long lists with exact quotes and / or scientists, peer reviewed abstracts.

    Ordinary references in comments is OK, but if you are going to make fun of them watch out for the holes. ;-)

    Here is a list I made in 2011 on WUWT. I learned a few things too. ;-)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/03/the-big-self-parodying-climate-change-blame-list/

  18. 35 and 74 are the same, but then David Viner was being a complete arse, so it deserves repeating.

  19. Anthony,

    it would be great if such a list (complete with references and all) was in your “Climate FAIL Files” menu up there…

  20. So, friends, when will we unite and denounce all those predictors as fake and unprofessional scientists? When we all will force their dismissal? All of you know, that they continue “teaching” students, rejecting articles with real scientific content, converting professional societies into “Hollywood” like environment, drawing huge salaries in their tenured academic positions, and impeding scientific progress by overtaking review panels in the science funding agencies…

  21. Thanks to Sasha for her delightful list. Perhaps some entrepreneur can be persuaded to establish a climate futures market wherein people on both sides of the controversy will have the opportunity to put their own skin in the game. This will have a number of salutary effects.

    Warmists will be able to take one side of the futures contracts and deniers will be able to take the other side. People and institutions who express strong opinions without being willing to gamble on the outcomes of climatological events will be exposed as charlatans. The opportunity to profit from reliable predictions will improve the reliability. The global warming research program will become self-supporting from the profits on trades.

  22. Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

  23. Should’t these be filed under the “Climate Fail” tab on the site banner. After all, it is sparsely populated at the moment (2). GK

  24. Details, details.

    You gotta look at the big picture and not let facts get in the way of the warmunist agenda.

    For every misstatement above, I’m sure the warmunists could provide a reason why global warming was at fault and validates their position.

  25. Definitely a keep, but the failed predictions after this point will still grow exponentially anyway because we live in the era of anti-learning and anti-empirical evidence, right NYT, BBC, and others?

  26. Actually, if you think about it, these nut cases are making predictions right now. Just look at the reactions to the IPCC report in the media. Never make predictions, especially about the future.

    I have been keeping a special file open with quotes from Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University and continue to look for more. I am waiting excitedly for an ice free Arctic ocean in September 2015 and 2016 – because he made a flexible and rigid prediction. I suspect he is going to go under the radar for the next few years or take early retirement. Old fool. ;-)

  27. G. Karst says:
    April 2, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    Should’t these be filed under the “Climate Fail” tab on the site banner. After all, it is sparsely populated at the moment (2). GK

    I think with that page they have to have given a fixed date beyond which they fail. That’s why Wadhams is of interest to me, he gave a last date of 2016 for an ice free Arctic. The other regarding milder winters are of course wrong when they said this is exactly the kind of mild winter the models projected. Now we see they are wrong but no date was given. They can argue just minor fluctuations and noise.

    Viner has kind of given a date. He basically said that we would be taken by surprise by snow in about 20 years time. We were taken by surprise after 9 years! But again they can wiggle a bit with that too.

  28. My favorite prediction story, albeit on economics.

    Not only can economists not predict the future, they could not predict the present.

    It is interesting to see that economists also predicted that countries with more regulations, would do better in in recovering from the crisis. As it turned out, the cost of the regulations were greater than any benefit. In other words, the regulations, rather than helping, hindered the ability of business to recover.

    Bonus quote:

    In an autobiographical essay published 20 years ago, the left-leaning economist Kenneth Arrow recalled entering the Army as a statistician and weather specialist during World War II. “Some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month,” Arrow wrote. “The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance.”

    Alarmed, Arrow and his colleagues tried to bring this important discovery to the attention of the commanding officer. At last the word came down from a high-ranking aide.

    “The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” the aide said haughtily. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

    via Junk Science

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/wrong-again_784910.html

  29. This list should be more thoroughly completed, continually updated, and have the names and employer of each listed. Then nailed on the door of every high school, college, university, news station, et al as the ‘107 theses’. If there is no accountability for these predictions there is no stopping them.

    Since there is no desire for accountability, rather a desire to cover up, among the warmists (formerly coolists) perhaps the route to go is loud, obnoxious and ongoing predictions of 0 degree temperature change by 2034, ice caps will be almost exactly the same in 2064. This will only work if the manner in which it is presented draws attention, since it’s not fearmongering it will be considered non-newsworthy.

  30. Les Johnson says:
    April 2, 2014 at 12:41 pm

    Jimbo: wadhams actually ice being gone by 2013.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

    Les, I think he was referring to Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s prediction. He said it was a good model but did not predict the end of Arctic ice on a given date. The other 2 links I have in my files.

    BBC – 2007
    Wadhams
    “In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

    As you can see he did not fail as he said ‘might’. However, since then he has given 2 dates beyond which his prediction fails. See below.

    Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
    Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015′
    Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

    “It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”

    Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
    “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
    ——-
    The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
    Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
    “The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.

    “The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
    —–

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

  31. It is important to remember the names and faces of the people who caused all of this CAGW mayhem.

  32. JimS says:
    April 2, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

    As long as the weather and climate don’t co-operate then each year the more and more fall into the failed predictions camp. Climate is 30 years. So anyone who did not give a specific date before a 30 year time span will extremely likely go into the failed camp. Think about it.

  33. Jimbo: Yes, you are correct. I have corrected my database. It was Maslowksi, not Wadham.

  34. First it was global cooling. Next global warming. Next anthropogenic global warming. Followed by catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, which then morphed into …. climate change. Next on the list: CO2 induced Anthropogenic Globally Local Atmospheric Non-Periodic Variability.

    Maybe I should copyright that to prevent it from being used.

  35. RoHa: Go back a bit to my LOOONNNGG posting at 11:46. I have several Flannery predictions in there.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/why_is_flannery_still_climate_commissioner/

    Tim and his many failed predictions on Ozzie drought. It should be noted that it was because of warninsg like Flannery’s, that Australia spent billions on de-salination plants that are no longer needed. Nor was that money spent on dams for flood control, as it was thought to be wasted money.

    http://web.archive.org/web/20120106132816/http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/business-leaders-discuss-climate/3273738

    Flannery also predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/flannery_denies_what_he_actually_said/

    More on Tim’s amazingly bad predictions. Now apparently, he is trying to deny that he said what he is recorded as saying.

  36. Great information from the OP and other posters.

    Question:

    Is there a similar list of skeptical failed predictions or are the climate skeptics too “proper science minded” to make unfounded predictions?

  37. [SNIP see site policy, you are welcome to resubmit without the insulting phrase at the end -mod]

  38. My monies on the next turn of the wheel being ocean acidification.

    From Global Warming (it didn’t) to Climate Change (it does naturally) to ocean acidification through over increase in CO2 content.

    You wont win any argument with any religious zealot. They have FAITH, you do not.

  39. The state of affairs in climatology resembles the state of affairs in political science that was discovered by Phillip Tetlock of the University of California Berkeley in the study that was published as the book “Expert Political Judgement.” Tetlock found (p. 236) that the poor performance of political scientists in forecasting the outcomes of political events was a consequence of relying on the “…’Rolodex’ or prestigeous affiliation or ideological compatibility heuristics…” in purchasing the services of scientists rather than statistically demonstrated competency. This was coupled to “…a strong desire among mass public consumers to believe that they live in a predictable world and an equally strong desire among more elite consumers in the media, business and government to appear to be doing the right thing by ritualistically consulting the usual suspects from widely recognized interest groups.”

  40. It would me much, much more effective to present this list (probably pruned, as some claims have not yet really been falsified) with the claim, reference, and then immediately with links to the evidence that refute them.

    Indeed, this should be a permanent page on WUWT, regularly updated. One could even name it the Bullshit! page or the Climate Prediction Fail page. This might or might not be useful with respect to all of the science — real science papers are usually very circumspect in their claims. However it would be enormously useful in identify, and debunking, runaway global warming memes by identifying the point where they were released into the wild and comparing the egregious and terrifying predictions with reality. Indeed, it could easily be named The Climate Science that Cried Wolf page or the Chicken Little page.

    Here is an example to get it started:

    Claim: The oceans will rise by five meters by 2100.

    Author: James Hansen, chief of NASA GISS from 1981 to 2013.

    Link: http://www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change

    Evidence (so far): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1870-2008_%28US_EPA%29.png

    (which only goes to 2008, probably because SLR has slowed significantly in the years in between. The satellite (only) part of the right hand end up to the present:

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

    Summary: The rate is “currently” 3.2 mm/year, according to this figure, but also according to this figure the rate itself peaked in a stretch across 2000 to 2006 and has actually dropped slightly since, although the figure splices together three different satellite measures. The tide gauge data: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/tide-gauge-sea-level (as crudely as this presents it) is indicating a slower rate, under 3 mm/year and possibly also slowing.

    SLR has been remarkably consistent over the entire 140 years or so of tide gauge data. Within substantial uncertainties, the rate has been 2mm/year plus or minus about 1 mm/year. We are over 1/8 of the way to 2100, decades later than the time Hansen made his egregious predictions of SLR doom, and there is little reason to think that the rate of SLR has any chance of reaching 1 meter by 2100, let alone 5. I suspect most climate scientists are embarrassed by the claim, since current estimates are well under a meter by 2100 and falling rapidly as the years without any significant acceleration add one upon another with CO_2 having increased already by more than 1/3 since roughly 1950.

    Conclusion: Failure Pending

    Claim: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uxfiuKB_R8 (James Hansen, again).

    Summary: The arctic will cool as Greenland melts. Storms will grow far more violent. Runaway greenhouse warming will occur and the oceans will (eventually) boil. No kidding.

    Evidence: It’s difficult to know where to start. The Arctic is warming (if anything), not cooling. Greenland is not melting. Storms are not more violent or more frequent. There is no evidence of runaway greenhouse warming in the longest running climate proxy reconstructions even when Antarctica was warm and green during the summers and CO_2 levels were as much as 20 times higher than they are today. The Ordovician-Silurian transition glacial epoch began with CO_2 levels some 17 times higher than the present, and peaked with CO_2 levels some 10 times the present. Nobody knows why (and some very exotic stuff is presented as possible reasons — the sun passing through an galactic cloud of space dust, that sort of thing).

    Conclusion: Fail so far. In fact, not even a hint of success. Time frame uncertainty makes it difficult to properly falsify, though, at least until Greenland melts.

    Let’s redo a few from up above:

    37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”
    Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999

    ****

    38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”
    Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000

    ****

    39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”
    Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005

    Evidence: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1

    Summary: From 1967 to the present, there is a robust trend towards increasing NH snow extent. Five of the top six years for snow extent occurred between 2003 and the present. There is on average rough 1 million square kilometers greater snow extent now/recently than there was in the supposedly colder 1960s.

    Conclusion: Fail. Fail. Fail. Also, What’s Up With That? If one admits as a general hypothesis the idea that NH snow extent should scale at least crudely inversely with NH temperature, the slope should be negative! Monthly anomaly data (also available on this site) are no better — they (curiously) show that the monthly anomalies were much higher before 1986, plunged quite suddenly over the three years from 1987 to 1990, and have been generally recovering ever since with slightly better than neutral anomalies for the last few years. In addition to just how they compute an “anomaly” (certainly not relative to the mean of the graph) this raises consistency issues — just how are the anomalies so anemic compared to the snow extent that in some sense should sum over the anomalies? Either way, though, Fail Fail Fail.

    97. March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”

    Evidence: https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=10773750185851 (view at medium resolution.) Date: April 2, 2014 is 13 years after 2001.

    Summary: Count the islands.

    Conclusion: Don’t be silly.

    105. June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal): “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’”

    Evidence: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2006 (Hansen’s endpoints, not mine.)

    Summary: Let’s be generous and assume that Hansen (a scientist) was using 2 F and not 2 C (which is what he should have meant, but this is Congress). The direct evidence is for 0.4 C of warming, which is 0.72 F. His prediction was too high by a factor of almost three. But this doesn’t begin to indicate the depth of the problem. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2015 shows that temperatures have actually decreased since 2006, to where if we actually use the February endpoint against 1986, there has only been 0.2 C or 0.4 F rounding up over not a decade, but thirteen years.

    Separately, we could consider plots of Holocene temperature reconstructions, general Pliestocene temperature reconstructions, adjust for the usual high frequency vs low frequency problem with the proxies, and conclude that it is probable that temperatures now are lower than they were in the Holocene optimum (since we’re still warming in recovery from the LIA, the coldest single stretch in the Holocene in 9000 years), or we could consider more recent non-hockey-stick evidence that suggests that the Medieval warm period was very likely just about as warm as today. Either way, Hansen’s assertion for highest in 100,000 years — spotting him the entire Wisconsin and Younger Dryas even though that is just silly — is probably false, it might be the warmest in 1000 years. Or it might not. Lots of thumbs on the HADCRUT scales and it is nearly impossible to precisely determine global average surface temperatures with thermometers.

    Conclusion: This is sworn testimony to the US Congress? This is the man that headed NASA GISS for decades? Why not just put http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_Hovind in charge of the National Science Foundation? How in the world could the United States put a man who so obviously lacked anything approximating scientific objectivity in charge of an organization which then unsurprisingly devoted all of its considerable and growing resources into proving him right by any means necessary?

    Fail.

    So please, WUWT members, contribute. It isn’t enough to just post assertions of failure (even if some of them are obvious). Document them. With sound, unbiased links to third party evidence, journal articles, graphs, photographs. Is Nebraska blowing away? Post photographs and links to the true state of Nebraska these days. Is Malaria in Spain running wild? Post links like this one: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3375659/ that correctly and reasonably identify the cause of increased Mediterranean malaria to increased immigration from malaria rich African countries, who then reseed existing Anopheles populations with the parasite. Post links to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erie_Canal and quote:

    “When the canal reached Montezuma Marsh (at the outlet of Cayuga Lake west of Syracuse), over 1,000 workers died of “swamp fever” (malaria) and construction stopped.”

    Note things such as the fact that this was in the middle of the Dalton Minimum, a few short years after the Tambora explosion put 38 cubic miles of pulverized dust into the atmosphere (1815) and the infamous “Year without a Summer” (1816). This is a few miles away from where I lived (Skaneateles) in upstate New York, and even now it is as cold as a well-digger’s ass. Malaria was pandemic in Siberia, Canada, the US, Northern Europe throughout the coldest of times because the Anopheles mosquito is perfectly happy in any swampy terrain that melts during the summer — subzero winter temperatures are nearly irrelevant to it except in that they limit the season it is likely to bite. It wasn’t climate change that ended the threat of malaria in developed countries, it was antibiotics and DDT and expensive modern medicine that all but eradicated it in the US and most of Europe.

    This should really be a running project, as there are plenty of old claims and absurdities not on the list (I’ve added a few) and I’m sure more are coming in all the time. Some reasonable amount of care should be taken to put up only objectively verifiable data or peer reviewed publications (except where the refutation can be reduced to e.g. pictures of Tuvalu, unsubmerged by an ocean that stubbornly refuses to rise any faster than the 2-3 mm/year it has risen for a century or more).

    rgb

  41. Mod, a tiny bit of help, please. I failed to correctly close a boldface tag (sigh) and wrote “13 years” where I meant to write “27 years” when addressing Hansen’s prediction of 2F warming in 20 years. I also made several trivial grammar errors, but (double sigh) it probably isn’t worth the effort of correcting them so I’ll just have to sound illiterate. Again. Damn.

    rgb

    REPLY: Fixed what I could find, the only mention of 13 years seems correct in context, leave another comment with details if need be – Anthony

  42. Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

    Well, some haven’t failed yet because they make claims about times that haven’t happened yet. In many of those cases, though, the evidence does not support the claim while it may not yet have technically falsified it. Who knows, arctic ice could “collapse” next year! A super-ENSO could cause global temperature to rocket up by 0.6 C and put it back in the middle or even upper end of the GCM pack. Greenland could melt.

    Or, it could stay about the same. Or, it could get colder. That’s the hard thing about predicting the future. So much possibility — until it happens.

    But many, many of the claims above (and many more not yet on the list) are patently ridiculous and their failure should be documented. US workers moving to Mexico because of a repeat of the Great Dust Bowl? In the future, who can say, but within the time frame claimed for the prediction, no, this is an objective failure.

    But I’d like to see the evidence for alpine temperatures compared to the claims for alpine temperatures, specifically, or the evidence for snow vs rainfall in Germany, or whatever. See it presented, with a link to an “official” site or reliable site with the refuting data.

    Seriously, this might actually shut up the real nut-jobs out there, if they were publicly called on each absurdity as it fails. Enough failures and — well we all know the story of the boy that cried wolf — the key thing is to publicly identify the people that are doing it because nobody remembers ten years later, so somehow they retain an aura of respectability and credibility.

    rgb

  43. Sasha and Anthony,

    Since I started writing this, I see that rgbatduke has weighed in with several of the points I make here. But I’ll make them, anyway.

    Many thanks for the list. But I’m afraid it needs a bit of winnowing and sub-division.

    Some (e.g. no. 3) make predictions that can’t be judged yet. It’s incorrect to say they are failed. Flawed, maybe; but not yet failed.

    Some (e.g. no. 5) make predictions, but give no specific date by which events will happen. It’s not easy to say when they’ve failed (or succeeded).

    Some (e.g. no. 99) are (perhaps) literally true statements, though the predictions they reference are failed. But who made those predictions?

    Some (e.g. no. 104) use enough weasel words not to make any specific prediction, so they can’t fail.

    Others (e.g. no. 2) don’t, if you look at them closer, seem to mean anything at all.

    I skimmed the first 20, and the only ones which passed my (ex-mathematician’s) smell test as actually “failed” were numbers 7 and, arguably, 10.

    Maybe the problem is more failure to furnish falsifiable forecasts than the falseness of the few falsifiable forecasts?

    Cheers,
    Neil

  44. this thread is the most stunning and damning examination of CAGW alarmism I have ever seen. It will take me weeks to go through it all. Wow.

  45. I believe a web page is called for for all failed predictions and a voting system to keep up a top ten of who made the worst predictions, which newspapers fell for it and the funniest predictions.

    This needs serious mockery.

  46. Just getting through them…

    So far, this one has struck me particularly…. There really should be an accounting for this one given the (engineered) increase in fuel costs in recent years….

    “42. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”
    IPCC Climate Change, 2001″

    Presumably we will have to go through a “peak-deaths” in the trend first then?

    Please no-one tell me I need to put a “sarc” after that?

    Oh. Angry too……

    Especially as it is killing off early the very generation that fought and died (by the million) to ensure that this crowd of self-haters can have the comfortable arm-chair pontificating that we are subject to.

    All for the greater good of course.

    Did I say I was angry?

    Now to read the rest.

    .
    Angry…….I’m sure I’m not alone either….

  47. george e. conant says:

    April 2, 2014 at 3:13 pm

    this thread is the most stunning and damning examination of CAGW alarmism I have ever seen.

    One big problem, George, is that the statements made by the CAGW alarmists mostly remain floating around as if they were true. The head of NASA/GISS said warming would continue and the oceans will boil. If that guy said it, it must be true.

    Getting the truth out here and throughout the “skepticosphere” is easy. Getting it “out there” where the Main Stream Media controls what is true, is another matter entirely.

  48. Some Earth Day Predictions:

    “We have about five more years at the outside to do something.” Kenneth Watt
    “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” George Wald

    “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.” • Barry Commoner, Washington University biologist
    “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.” • New York Times editorial, the day after the first Earth Day

    “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” • Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

    “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.” • Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

    “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.” • Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

    “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” • Peter Gunter, professor, North Texas State University

    “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….” • Life Magazine, January 1970

    “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

    “Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” • Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

    “We are prospecting for the very last of our resources and using up the nonrenewable things many times faster than we are finding new ones.”

    “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

    “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” • Sen. Gaylord Nelson

    “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

  49. rgbatduke says:
    April 2, 2014 at 2:31 pm

    It would me much, much more effective to present this list (probably pruned, as some claims have not yet really been falsified) with the claim, reference, and then immediately with links to the evidence that refute them.

    Indeed, this should be a permanent page on WUWT, regularly updated…..

    I think it is HERE.
    ——————————-

    It is high time we got this thing together via a brainstorm to list predictions that have clearly failed. Wadhams is the next likely target for September 2016. He has been very firm with this as a final date for the Arctic to be ice free without caveat.

    On this page Pierre has been clear that some of the predictions have been pushed forward so we have to wait. A clear date deadline is the key with no caveats. 50 million climate refugees set a date. Maslowski set a date.

    If I said there may be 50 million climate refugees by 2012, I get wiggle room. If I said there WILL be 50 million climate refugees by 2012 then I have failed.

  50. See my list of Arctic ice free predicitons HERE on WUWT. Now look for the weasel words and caveats.

    Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
    If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
    [Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
    __________________

    Canada.com – 16 November 2007
    According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

    “And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
    [Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
    __________________

    National Geographic – 12 December 2007
    “NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”

    [Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
    __________________

    BBC – 12 December 2007
    “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

    [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
    __________________

    Independent – 27 June 2008
    Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
    “…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
    __________________

    Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
    The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
    “…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
    [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
    __________________

    Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
    If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
    [Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
    __________________

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
    __________________

    Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
    “For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
    [Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
    __________________

    Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
    “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

  51. 95. October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan: “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”

    .
    Bit of a shame this one. Childhood hero of mine.

    As an aside wasn’t it Sagan who stated on camera that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”?

  52. rgbatduke says:
    April 2, 2014 at 2:31 pm

    It would me much, much more effective to present this list (probably pruned, as some claims have not yet really been falsified) with the claim, reference, and then immediately with links to the evidence that refute them.

    Indeed, this should be a permanent page on WUWT, regularly updated. One could even name it the Bullshit! page or the Climate Prediction Fail page. This might or might not be useful with respect to all of the science — real science papers are usually very circumspect in their claims. However it would be enormously useful in identify, and debunking, runaway global warming memes by identifying the point where they were released into the wild and comparing the egregious and terrifying predictions with reality. Indeed, it could easily be named The Climate Science that Cried Wolf page or the Chicken Little page.

    In my guest-thread, Notes from Skull Island: Why Skeptics Aren’t Well-Funded and Well-Organized, at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/16/notes-from-skull-island-why-skeptics-arent-well-funded-and-well-organized/ , I listed 22 things that would be happening if contrarians were in fact well-organized and well-funded. Here’s item 11:

    11. There’d be an extensive online collection of opposition research, such as warmist predictions waiting to be shot down by contrary events. Such opposition research is so valuable a tactic (as is now being shown) that no political or PR consultant would have failed to insist on it.

    $1 million a year devoted to such a research project would deliver plenty of bang for the buck. Or even $100,000. C’mon, NSF, ante up!

  53. Just finished. Thank you very kindly for those.

    To paraphrase Oliver, have you got any more?.

  54. Jimbo: I thought I recognized the style. That was some of your sea ice predictions in my long list.

    I looked, and sure enough, it was your name in the “hat tip” column of the data.

  55. PS: The richest vein to mine for their failed predictions is the printed literature of alarmist organizations, such as their monthly newsletters. They would have been likely to pick up and document virtually every alarmist forecast that was printed or, more important, uttered at a climatist coven but not “in the literature.” There are sure to be some real doozies there, more extreme than what they committed to print.

    Libraries must have huge collections of this stuff, as must the organizations’ own archives. Searching and transcribing this material would be a major effort, especially searching the foreign-language archives, but it should pay major dividends after only 10% of the job had been done. Heck, after only 1% of the way to the end.

    I don’t see how the NSF could rationally turn down a funding request for such a project. It would do so, of course, but that action would play poorly in Peoria, and hand us a nice talking point, so our side should try to provoke them into making it.

    The greatest benefit would come from quotes by IPCC authors and bigshots, as this would suggest prejudice and bias on the organization’s part.

    They’re sitting ducks! Let’s get them in our sights!

  56. On WUWT Climate Fail Files there is one entry.

    50 million climate refugees

    You could add Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s prediction of an ice free Arctic on or by 2013. He said that date was already too conservative. He later revised his prediction but that should not get him off the Climate Fail Files. He failed. Don’t let them get away with revision, otherwise the page would be worthless.

  57. If you’re of a certain age, these quotes function like a time machine being wonderfully nostalgic. I remember when I first became aware of global warming: a very non-scientific friend who felt great longing to be counted among the beau monde told me about a lecture she had attended at a university; the subject was “global warming.” She said that in a decade the sea-level would rise to an extent that would destroy coastlines along the United States. I recall that I met this news with considerable skepticism, by which I’d have you note that my friend was politically hip before it was cool, and I was similarly a denier before that had even become a heresy. So we were early adopters, both of us!

    Items 73, 85, 95, 98, 99 and 105 are especially resonant for me. If memory serves my friend attended the lecture around 1987 so Hansen’s remark about the submerged highway provides quite a blast from the past. Takes me back to my vigorous youth!

    Oh, should mention that the United States coastline wasn’t devastated by the way! What a relief! (Didn’t want to leave everyone here wondering what happened ….)

    Given the circumstances, I’d say my skepticism has some warrant.

    “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”
    Dr. James Hansen, 1988, in an interview with author Rob Reiss

  58. Well, it COULD happen! /choke…snarf…sarc…gurgle/ What fun! I’m so glad some of you are so anal or have so much time on your hands (or else are very organized, have high performance standards, and work very hard and smart) to debunk these insufferable, murderous idiots. Well done. Pour it on (and I’ll try to contribute content/$/whatever that helps). Respectfully, JimF

  59. PPS: A lot of the richest newsletter material, from before 2000 or so, isn’t online–or isn’t easily findable. The good parts may have been edited out if too ridiculous. That’s why a search of the printed literature would pay big dividends. But an online search of newsletter archives could be an inexpensive first step.

    JohnWho says:
    April 2, 2014 at 3:37 pm

    Getting the truth out here and throughout the “skepticosphere” is easy. Getting it “out there” where the Main Stream Media controls what is true, is another matter entirely.

    It won’t be necessary. Build it and they will come. Then the media will be piqued to ask warmists to explain their documented failures.

    Our talking points will be: “They were just as sure THEN–and they were wrong–so why should we let them fool us twice?” Also, “97% of climatologers were 97% wrong–and still they claim the case is closed?! If so, it’s their side that’s lost.”

  60. “98. 1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist:” If that is the Lubos of TRF, I find that difficult to believe, plus Lubos Motl was born in l973.

  61. Surely the greater challenge is to find a single warmist prediction that did bear fruit!

  62. What about Tim Flannery’s prediction of sea level rises. He’s been sacked by the government.
    The single warmist prediction that bore fruit. Yes the latest IPPC correcting their prediction of species extinction was false.

  63. The sun will not come up tommorrow isnt a failed prediction until tomorrow.

    Climate science may have failed predictions.
    But you dont make a strong case by including
    Obviously wrong examples.
    That is worse than making the failed predictions

    • Steven Mosher:

      Your example is a good one for the purpose of exposing inadequacies of global warming climatology as this discipline is currently structured. “The sun will not come up tomorrow” is not a prediction but has some of the features of a prediction. It can be converted to a prediction through specification of the longitude and latitude of a point on Earth’s surface at which it is observed that the sun comes up or does not do so. That, at this point, the sun came up today is an example of a state of nature that is called a “condition.” That, at the same point, the sun will come up tomorrow is an example of a state of nature that is called an “outcome.” A pairing of a condition with an outcome is a description of an event. A “prediction” is an extrapolation from a condition to an outcome in which the condition is observed and the outcome is unobserved but subsequently observable. A prediction is falsified when the unobserved outcome becomes observed and is not the predicted outcome.

      Your example implies the possibility of four possible pairings of conditions with outcomes hence four possible descriptions of events. These are:

      the sun came up today, the sun comes up tomorrow
      the sun came up today, the sun does not come tomorrow
      the sun did not come up today, the sun comes up tomorrow
      the sun did not come up today, the sun does not come up tomorrow

      Given that the sun came up today, that the sun comes up tomorrow is an example of a prediction. This prediction is falsified if and only if the sun does not come up tomorrow.

      For todays climate models the conditions are undefined and the outcomes are undefined. The times at which the conditions occur are undefined and the times at which the outcomes occur are undefined. Were the missing items to be filled in and the models tested, climatologists would discover that deterministic predictions of the outcomes were falsified by the evidence. To avoid falsification, they would have to revert to making predictions probabilistically. The necessity for probabilistic predictions would arise from the reality of missing information for a deductive conclusion about the outcome of an event.

  64. Steven Mosher says:

    April 2, 2014 at 6:55 pm
    The sun will not come up tommorrow isnt a failed prediction until tomorrow.

    –Exactly.

  65. Jimbo, I still think you should start a website just for predictions and such that you’ve collected over the years. I’m just sayin’

  66. [ALWAYS give the reader a description of ANY video links you offer, and a reason WHY they should waste time/spend time looking at that video. Mod]

  67. “The sun will not come up tommorrow isnt a failed prediction until tomorrow.”
    ===========================
    But the sun will not come up yesterday is a failed prediction today.

  68. Interesting list. It would be nice to have a list of predictions that came true.
    Anyone working on this?

  69. “National Geographic – 12 December 2007
    “NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”

    This is not a prediction.

    so far this year, I have eaten an apple a month. At this rate by the end of the year I will have eaten
    12 apples.

    You guys need to level up your game.

    Here’s another clue. If natural variability is the cause of climate change, then you cant make a falsifiable prediction. whatever happens happens because of natural variability.

  70. @Lance Wallace at 11:42 am
    Are the quotes accurate? Without links, we can’t know.

    How many live links do you find in a printed issue of Nature or Science?
    She put her name to those quotes. They are more than you had before she did it. Thank her for her efforts and verify them on your own dime.

    Don’t let the Perfect be the enemy of the Good.

  71. April 2, 2014 at 11:23 am | LB says:

    “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
    Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007
    ==============
    About the only one correct, for this year at least

    Not even close.
    Warm, Cold, Dry,Wet? It’s All your Fault Anyway!

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/03/26/warm-cold-drywet-its-all-your-fault-anyway/

  72. April 2, 2014 at 8:10 pm | Steven Mosher says:

    “National Geographic – 12 December 2007
    “NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”

    Nyet ! Zwally is the perpetrator of much catastrophic claptrap … he is attempting to demonstrate the catastrophe of the rate of warming that he clearly believes is happening … therefore, the total loss of the Arctic ice is a prediction based upon his belief in the rate of warming.

  73. The desire to create a repository of quotes of failed predictions has been discussed before.
    It started with A. Watts’ I need your help for a short research project (July 16, 2011) and expanded upon in July 16, 2011 Climate Reality is Al Gore’s Gettysburg

    In what may be a related action, Anthony Watts has asked readers to find quotes for “ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”. This is the kind of preparing the ground and zero-in we need to do now in advance of September.

    We know who the CAGW leaders will be. Find every false, misleading, scary, idiotic, non-scientific statement they have made in the past twenty years. Create an index by name with pages listing those statement with links to the source. Keep it factual. Let their own words come back to haunt them.

    We know the basics of their arguments and lines of “evidence”. Cross reference each of the statements above with the type of evidence.

    There was good discussion about issues of design between me, davidmhoffer. tallbloke, manicbeancounter, MJ, Gary Pearse. The trick was how to a) efficiently gather the references and tag the key information, preferably in bulk load, b) make it a crowd source project with vandalism minimized and managed. The past couple weeks I’ve been thinking about taking another crack at this idea. Someone with experience in social media data capture might find it child’s play today.

    Once upon a time carbonbrief (I think) had this sort of thing from the warmist viewpoint, but I don’t see it today.

  74. Oops, sorry mod. I’ll consider that a telling off.

    I thought I had. Prof Essex giving an excellent account less of the science of the climate scene and more of the political/psychological motivations.

    Professor Essex has been involved in modeling of the energy emission of CO2 molecules since the late seventies.

    Mod, do you have the ability to slot that underneath the vid?

    Most kind if so.

  75. @Steven Mosher
    You carefully point out that the statement wrt to ‘prediction’ is an erroneous example. I concur on the most basic of grammatical levels. But I want to point out that although you are correct, it would appear you support someone who knows: “tomorrow the chance of snow is 70%, 20% chance of rain, and only 10% chance of clear weather” who then states “Based on our model, tomorrow may be a clear day,” and makes no further statement. A perfectly correct statement, designed to mislead. I used this kind of shenanigans with my parents when I was 15.

    The clear implication of a statement like “At this rate…….by 2012″ is the following:
    a.) We know that some climate warmist believes the rate they are speaking about is “fact”.
    b.) We know the scientist saying this is choosing to say it this way to raise alarm, but not be held responsible for a ‘missed prediction”.
    c.) We also know that technically, what they are saying is not a prediction.

    But it is intended to persuade, influence, cause alarm without an attempt to take responsibility for they own words, be held accountable for their half truths, nor be called out as being wrong.

    A lot of us feel personally attacked by simply discussing climate issues and getting asked “You’re a denier?”

    The game they are playing is petty.

    How do you like the following ‘technically correct’ statement?

    “Someday, Steven Mosher will publish something that is correct” ??

  76. I like that Timothy. Yes, their ploy follows bullshit artistry we call it in Aus. Or ignoring your rebuttal as it is stupid and you are a holocaust denier anyway. But funnily, one of my cheer up sayings is
    “Don’t worry, it might be raining today, but tomorrow the sun will come out again..” I used to tell that to my young son when he was disappointed or depressed over something. Maybe we should send that message to Michael Mann and cohorts. LOL

  77. ’45. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
    Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007′

    Actually for the period April 2013 to March 2014, that story is remarkably true.

    Rather too soon to say whether it is generally true in climatological time (i.e. over 30 – 300 years).

  78. I have to agree with some others here. If there is a list of “failed” predictions, then that is what it must be and many on the list do not qualify.

    If you want to claim the prediction “failed” then each must contain as basic information;
    1. Who said it? That it was in a newspaper article is not good enough. Either the reporter said it or they were quoting somebody. So who made the prediction?
    2. Where did they say it? Publication, Date, Article Title and or Section. e.g. (Number 13, exactly where in AR4 was the claim made? People cannot be expected to read the entire report.)
    3. When did they say it? Exact dates are needed for “in 10 years….” to know when they actually “fail”.

    Only those that meet the 3 criteria can be truly said to be “failed predictions”, any detail less than those 3 puts the prediction into the “A bloke down the pub said….”

    A 4th criteria can be added for those considered “failing”.

    4. What is the final date of the prediction? A prediction made in 2005 for 2015 has not failed but if it requires a step change in the conditions to get back on track it can be said to be “failing”. For example if someone predicted in 2000 that “World temps will go up by 1 degree by 2020″ the prediction has not yet failed, but since we are in 2014 without anywhere near that rise the prediction can be reasonably called “failing” as it would require a minor miracle for it to come to pass.

    I’d also make the point that the use of the Ellipsis ( “…” ) should be avoided as it leaves the way open to claim the prediction or statement was taken “out of context”. It also begs the questions “Why did you choose to leave part of the comment out? What are you trying to hide from me?”. An entire speech doesn’t have to be quoted, but entire sentences should be.

  79. The older the prediction, the more outlandish and inaccurate it is. I wonder if we’ll ever learn. I think people should publicise the cooling prophecies to show how very specious these fanciful scare stories are.

  80. 47. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…
    Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007

    That climate was “stationary” before man came along and caused it to change seems to be an underlying theme for many in the climate AGW camp. A similar argument is seen in Ecology where many comments about the “balance of Nature” can be found.

    It is an unspoken but deeply held belief that the natural world is “in balance” and changes occur only over very long periods. This basic assumption that all natural changes are slow and occur only over long time frames leads very logically to the conclusion that therefore any rapid change (unless caused by a meteorite or similar) must be due to “unnatural” causes, or “Man”.

    I’ve found that many in the AGW camp are simply un-accepting when shown something as simple as the Ice cores showing the Younger Dryas period. The YD event shows very clearly that world climate can change much, much faster than the rather mild rate of the last 150 years. (And in both directions)

    I find it interesting that climate is possibly the last major bastion of this “unchanging” or “slowly changing” mind set. Astronomy made the move some time ago when the “Steady State Universe” gave way to the “Big Bang” theory. Geology underwent a similar change when it became obvious to all that continents really did move and so a “Static” view became a dynamic one where change was the norm.

    There are probably examples from other sciences as well.

    The point is that it’s not about CO2, it’s about a worldview. The natural world is either static or slowly changing and therefore very predictable and safe or it is an unpredictable and wild and dangerous place where man is at the mercy of nature. Note that many of the lights of the AGW world speak of “stopping” or “reversing” climate change. This would make it predictable and safe again. It’s not belief in the science that drives some, but the fear of living in an uncertain and unpredictable world.

  81. Amazing, as soon as one fails, they’ve got two new ones ready to replace it.
    By the time this farce is over, the failed predictions will be innumerable.

  82. There is enough material here to be combined into an ensemble, with an average.

  83. How can you claim failure for a predictions targetting 2050 or later? Much of this list makes no sense at all.

  84. COOLING:

    By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…” Life magazine, January 1970.
    Get a good grip on your long johns, cold weather haters–the worst may be yet to come. That’s the long-long-range weather forecast being given out by “climatologists.” the people who study very long-term world weather trends…. Washington Post January 11, 1970
    Because of increased dust, cloud cover and water vapor “…the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born,” Newsweek magazine, January 26, 1970.
    In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish. — Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)
    “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind. We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” – Barry Commoner Washington University Earth Day 1970
    “(By 1995) somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” Sen. Gaylord Nelson, quoting Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, Look magazine, April 1970.
    “By the year 2000…the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America and Australia, will be in famine,” Peter Gunter, North Texas State University, The Living Wilderness, Spring 1970.
    Convection in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Leading to a Surge of the Ice Sheet and Possibly to a New Ice Age. – Science 1970
    “In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to 10 years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.” – Washington Post – July 9, 1971
    “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” Paul Ehrlich 1971
    New Ice Age Coming—It’s Already Getting Colder. Some midsummer day, perhaps not too far in the future, a hard, killing frost will sweep down on the wheat fields of Saskatchewan, the Dakotas and the Russian steppes…..Los Angles Times Oct 24, 1971

  85. I must confess that I, Czech physicist Luboš Motl, have never made a failed prediction about the climate and I have never made an alarmist prediction about the climate, especially not 4 years before my birth (in 1973). The name “Lubos Moti” is just a misspelled name of Daniel Patrick Moynihan, see his prediction at

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/moynihan-nixon-global-warming_n_634526.html

    Thanks for your understanding. ;-) I guess that someone was linking the names to the quotes using a computer program and my name was next to Moynihan’s in an alphabetic list so a “plus minus one error” has relinked the names in this humorous way. Maybe it’s a reason to check the other quotes, too.

    [Thank you for the courtesy of your reply to this confusing topic. Mod]

  86. 98. 1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist: “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

    Doesn’t seem to be the one we know…..

  87. As far as the Snowless Northern Hemisphere goes, there actually seems to be more snow in winter (about 1.5M KM2) since 2007, than there used to be.:

    NHWinterSnowChart

  88. Re: the past discussions on a database for quotes, references, links, and rebuttals I mentioned
    April 2, 2014 at 9:31 pm.

    Transforming lists of references into a multi-table relational database format while minimizing the human data entry effort demands lists such as Sasha’s and others’ be given a minimal markup and then bulk imported into a database loader.

    The point of this comment is that the mark up needs to do the job of XML, but it needs to be an XML-lite syntax of tags. True XML is repulsively human-hostile. While researching the topic today I stumbled upon this gem of a paper:
    Soapbox: Humans should not have to grok XML
    Answers to the question “When shouldn’t you use XML?”

    Humans deal especially well with implied structure whereas computers, which were designed to be good at what we are not, prefer explicit structure. The closer your computer language is to natural language, the more natural it will be for a human, but the harder it will be to implement. A good compromise in this tug-o-war is to use a subset of natural language possibly with some hints in the form of punctuation, mathematics being the most obvious and useful example.

    One idea I’m considering is a HML (Human Markup Language) that can be transformed with simple computer code into XML format and then we can leverage standard XML parsing loaders for relational or NoSQL structures. The alternative is that we use a simple HML parser to fill table buffers and write relational records from the buffers as each line is read.

  89. [Mods: this is a repost of 4:54 pm to clean up the link tag]
    Re: the past discussions on a database for quotes, references, links, and rebuttals I mentioned
    April 2, 2014 at 9:31 pm.

    Transforming lists of references into a database format while minimizing the human data entry effort demands lists such as Sasha’s and others’ be imported into a database loader. To make that work the lists will need some sort of a mark up.

    The point of this comment is that the mark up needs to do the job of XML, but it needs to be an XML-lite syntax of tags. True XML is repulsively human-hostile. While researching the topic today I stumbled upon this gem of a paper:
    Soapbox: Humans should not have to grok XML
    Answers to the question “When shouldn’t you use XML?”

    Humans deal especially well with implied structure whereas computers, which were designed to be good at what we are not, prefer explicit structure. The closer your computer language is to natural language, the more natural it will be for a human, but the harder it will be to implement. A good compromise in this tug-o-war is to use a subset of natural language possibly with some hints in the form of punctuation, mathematics being the most obvious and useful example.

    One idea I’m considering is a HML (Human Markup Language) that can be simply transformed into XML and then we can leverage XML parsing loaders into relational or NoSQL structures. The alternative is that we use a simple HML parser to fill table buffers and write relational records from the buffers as each line is read.

  90. @Mosher…If you insist on viewing Zwally’s statement literally, then I would point out that, in the phrase “much faster than previous predictions”, previous implies that he is making a new prediction. You can see the difference if he had said instead “much faster than modeled predictions”, or much faster than “our predictions”, or “much faster than anyone has predicted”, You can’t insist on literalism while ignoring that word.
    While it’s debatable whether you are correct even in a literal interpretation, the whole point of somke kinds of propaganda is that they have meaning beyond what is literally said. This works, because if the prediction turns out not to be true, apologists can defend the statement on “literal” grounds.
    If this statement was not literally a prediction, it was intended to feel like one to less literal readers, and deserves to be called out, both as propaganda and failed prediction.

  91. Beware of the word “predict” when used in making an argument. Without disambiguation, the word has several meanings. When used in making an argument, the word makes of thia argument an “equivocation.” An equivocation looks like a syllogism but isn’t one. Thus, it is a potent vehicle for misleading people.

  92. I’ve always wanted to see a comprehensive list of prediction failures, but this one isn’t it.
    First, there is a big difference between predictions that are obvious nonsense and ones that have provably failed.

    So, in the final list, each item must meet these two conditions:
    1. The prediction has a specific date.
    2. The prediction date has been reached and the prediction has been proven wrong.

    One prediction in the list has a date of 2030. It doesn’t matter how ridiculous the prediction, it can’t be disproven until 2030.

    One example of a prediction that has matured and which turned out completely wrong: the UN published predictions of waves of climate change refugees around the world. It published maps showing where this would occur and it gave a specific date, so the first requirement is met. The date was several years ago, and the prediction was provably false. In fact, all countries that had conducted a population census showed population increases. So the second condition was also met.

    As I recall, the UN reacted first by simply making the predictions on their web pages disappear without a hint that their predictions had turned out laughably wrong. And then the web pages magically re-appeared, but with the dates moved into the future. So, when the new predictions eventually mature, it will be yet another item for the list. But not until the prediction has actually matured (the date is reached), and that’s my point.

    I am completely confident that any list which meets both requirements could be enormous, and it would grow quite quickly as more of these mindless predictions reach maturity. I believe that one of Hansen’s predictions about a road in New York being permanently under water due to sea level rise is close to maturity….
    Chris

  93. These ill-advised prognosticators of climate and weather need to become members of C.O.D – the Cult Of Doom.

  94. Hey, they forgot the FIELD MOUSE MOVES 200 YARDS HIGHER UP THE MOUNTAIN to avoid global warming study. That was the one that swayed me to believe in climate change.

  95. Whats up with the german disinformation bureau? Is it a new kind, another type of blitzkrieg from a new kind of Nazi? The “Al and the Weather Nazi’s” and his forced snow shoveling even if they have to Make the snow with snow machines, get your ass out there and suffer in what you have caused you scum and your flatulant cows!!!
    See what you have done you normal human beings! Now, vee vill have to vix this!

  96. Sorry to resurrect an older thread, but, I agree that some of these predictions are set too far in the future. Maybe some of these are more in-line;

    “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
    • George Wald, Harvard Biologist

    “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.”
    • Barry Commoner, Washington University biologist

    “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”
    • Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

    “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”
    • Peter Gunter, professor, North Texas State University

    “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”
    • Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

    “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

    “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”
    • Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

    “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”
    • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

    “Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.”
    • Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

    “We are prospecting for the very last of our resources and using up the nonrenewable things many times faster than we are finding new ones.”
    • Martin Litton, Sierra Club director

    “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”
    • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

    “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”
    • New York Times editorial, the day after the first Earth Day

    “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”
    • Sen. Gaylord Nelson

    “We have about five more years at the outside to do something.”
    • Kenneth Watt, ecologist

    “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
    • Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

    Most, if not all, of these comments were made around the first Earth Day in 1970.

    We also have these more recent predictions, H/T to Steve Goddard;

    Barrack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of NASA scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama’s first administration, he added. (17/01/2009)

    GRIM FORECAST
    A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.
    (June 30, 1989)

    and finally;

    “I’m scared,” the lean, intense scientist (Paul Ehrlich) told an interviewer. “I have a teenage daughter whom I love very much. I know a lot of young people, and their world is being destroyed – my world is being destroyed. I’m 37, and I’d like to live to be 67 in a reasonably pleasant world, not die in some kind of holocaust in the next decade.” 28th July, 1971……Ehrlich is now 81.

Comments are closed.