Walmart helps verify sea level rise in NYC

From the “more proof Walmart is evil” department, comes this bit of serendipity. While looking for a marine deep cycle battery to serve as storage for a solar powered remote weather station and webcam I’m designing, this turned up in the Walmart product search:

flyingboat_NYC_walmart

Intrigued by the photo, since I had never seen it before, and because it showed a clear view of the sea at Battery Park from the early years of aviation, I set about trying to find the source of it. Usually, photos that are for sale tend to be well protected so that hi-res versions don’t make it onto the net. To my complete surprise, not only did I find the source, but also a high-res version. To my even bigger surprise, it turned out to be in NOAA’s public domain photo collection.

The source:

A flying boat cruising by Battery Park at the south end of Manhattan Island. In: “Flug Und Wolken”, Manfred Curry, Verlag F. Bruckmann, Munchen, 1932.
Image ID: line0987, NOAA’s America’s Coastlines Collection
Location: New York City
Photo Date: 1930 Circa
Credit: Fairchild Aerial Surveys Inc.
Category: Coastline/Mid-Atlantic New York/Historical/

And here is the hi-res version:

flyingboat_NYC_NOAA_line0987

Click to enlarge (BTW, since this is public domain, save and print it yourself if you like it. COSTCO offers print services, as Dr. Mike Mann found out) – Anthony_

Available at: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/htmls/line0987.htm

(Update: Michael Ozanne writes in comments:
That’s the Dornier Do-X , the biggest plane in the world of its day and one of the worst aeronautical engineering exploits in history. Famous for its mishap ridden marketing flight from Friedrichshafen to New York which ended up taking 9 months. Longer than it would probably take to swim it….. more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_X )

Note in  the background, you can see what looks to be the Empire State Building (or possibly the Chrysler building) nearing completion. Empire state officially opened on May 1st, 1931. The Chrysler building May 20, 1930. That puts the photo above around  1930 to early 1931. (any readers that can help identify for sure, leave a comment please).

Now compare that photo to this one taken 80 years later in 2010 from Wikipedia with a nearly identical vantage point:

Battery_Park

While there have been a lot of changes, most notably the mature trees now in Battery Park, one thing is clear – the city has not been inundated by sea level rise even though the NOAA Battery Park tide gauge indicates a rise of about 0.22 meter ( 8 3/4 inches):

battery_park_SLR_1930-2010

Granted, you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference in sea level from 1930 to 2010 just by looking at the two photos, but that’s the point, especially when we see idiotic stories like this one in National Geographic:

natgeo_statue_liberty_sea_level

Story at: National Geographic’s Junk Science: How long will it take for sea level rise to reach midway up the Statue of Liberty?

Or this one of La Guardia airport by Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman, which is the all-time dumbest in my opinion, since I’m pretty sure sea level rise can’t catch airplanes:

What La Guardia Airport could look like with 5 feet of sea level rise, an amount that could occur by 2100, according to some estimates. Click on the image to enlarge. Credit: Nickolay Lamm/StorageFront , for Climate Central, using Climate Central data.

Story at: Quite possibly the dumbest example of ‘Tabloid Climatology’ ever from Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman

As always, I remind our readers:

Freaking out about NYC sea level rise is easy to do when you don’t pay attention to history

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146 Responses to Walmart helps verify sea level rise in NYC

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Ya gotta admit the water does kinda look higher ;)

  2. michaelozanne says:

    That’s the Dornier Do-X , the biggest plane in the world of its day and one of the worst aeronautical engineering exploits in history. Famous for its mishap ridden marketing flight from Friedrichshafen to New York which ended up taking 9 months. Longer than it would probably take to swim it…..

  3. Lloyd Martin Hendaye says:

    Book us passage on that magnificent broad-winged Flying Boat…. but we know heresy when we see it. What have actual measurements ever had to do with AGW sea-levels?

  4. Greg Goodman says:

    Out of interest, are marine batteries cheaper than other commerical deep discharge? I would have though that leisure marine market was as much as rip off as camper or solar markets.

    If often get asked for advise of setting up off grid systems, any tips like that would be useful.

  5. Jason H says:

    I think the Empire State Building is to the left and way out of frame in both photographs.

    REPLY: I went back and forth between ES and Chrysler – maybe readers can help clear it up. I’ve added a note to that effect – Anthony

  6. RACookPE1978 says:

    On the other hand, the sea plane ramps (nice sloping inclined planes into the water) at every US, British and Japanese Navy air base worldwide might give a clue for water level increase since the 1920’s …..

    For example, http://www.airfields-freeman.com/VA/Airfields_VA_Norfolk.htm

  7. johnmarshall says:

    Comparing those two photographs above it looks like a small sea level fall. There has been some reclamation round Battery Park in the mean time which might confuse the issue but nothing alarming with sea levels.

  8. Greg Goodman says:

    If that was an historic flight maybe it would be possible to find the data and the time it flew over Battery Park, then look up tide charts….

  9. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    New York City is not sustainable.

  10. Rob Dawg says:

    As a follow on to the world class surface stations triumph perhaps you could get people all over the world to compare historic coastal photography to current sea levels.

  11. Jimbo says:

    Relax, Battery Park is landfill; just fill some more or use what they call concrete. No problemo.

    Note to Eco-Worriers: Part of the Netherlands is reclaimed from the sea and is BELOW sea level! All hope is lost, head for the hills.

    And finally, the Maldives has in recent years been building FIVE underwater airports to cater for flying tourists who churn out so much refuse they have an island name dedicated to it. Now where are those building aggregates.

    Maldives: paradise trashed (with nauseating images).

  12. johanna says:

    Thanks for this. That is a wonderful photo. I wonder how it was taken, and by whom?

    In this jaded age of billions of images, it is always a treat to be reminded that great photography is a relatively old art form, which was not reliant on modern technology to make it great.

  13. geran says:

    Jason H says:
    September 21, 2013 at 8:10 am
    I think the Empire State Building is to the left and way out of frame in both photographs.

    >>>>>

    I agree, but I haven’t been to NYC in over 30 years!

    Good catch, AW, I wonder if the wing number D”1929″ has any significance, as to dates?

  14. Matt says:

    One cannot discount the possibility that some of that land was dredged. Either way, we know NY is subsiding, so, BFD.

  15. TonyP says:

    Don’t forget the effect of tidal height changes, Anthony – NYC has a 5 or 6 ft change of height between high & low water – so it depends on what time of day, and day of month is being compared..

  16. Sam The First says:

    Maldives: what tourist would want to visit a place where it’s proposed to flog a 15 year old girl raped by her step-father within an inch of her life, anyway?

    [This girl's sentence for 'immorality' has been put on hold due the international outcry, and top level diplomacy, but others are not so lucky]

  17. Darren Potter says:

    “NOAA Battery Park tide gauge indicates a rise of about 0.22 meter”

    Sea level isn’t rising, instead tide gauge is sinking do to anthropological expansion / construction. Which resulted in land subsiding under weight of the numerous and massive buildings crammed full of people.

    Setting aside the sinking… The air sure looks a whole lot cleaner now than it did back in 1930s. Appears that increasing CO2 ppm, results in less Smog.

  18. Jimbo says:

    As one commenter mentioned on the other Battery Park thread much of Manhattan is reclaimed land. They asked what effect does millions of tonnes of steel, concrete and other human structures have on subsidence? (I paraphrase.)

  19. usJim says:

    michaelozanne says September 21, 2013 at 8:06 am

    That’s the Dornier Do-X , the biggest plane in the world of its day and one of the worst aeronautical engineering exploits in history.

    WOW! Almost as much of a ‘white elephant’ as this Soviet-made cold-war era ground-effects bird:

    Lun-class Ekranoplane was used by the Soviet Navy” from 1987 to the late 1990s

    http://www.businessinsider.com/take-a-look-inside-the-soviet-unions-gigantic-nuclear-equipped-ekanoplane-2012-1?op=1

    .

  20. steveta_uk says:

    I assume that the1932 picture was taken during the peak of a spring tide, and the modern one at the lowest point of a spring tide? I also assume that those trees are underwater for several hours twice a day!

    After all, National Geographic wouldn’t lie!

  21. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    While looking for a marine deep cycle battery to serve as storage for a solar powered remote weather station and webcam I’m designing…

    Sealed lead acid (SLA), here’s a 12V 12Ah general-type deep cycle AGM, 9 pounds. $33.

    http://www.batteryspec.com/cgi-bin/cart.cgi?action=link&product=300G6

    Used for wheelchairs and scooters, thus outdoor exposure on a par with a weather station in a ventilated rain-shielded enclosure. Plain male spade terminals.

    Go play on Amazon, look for “sla sealed lead acid deep cycle battery 12v 12 volt”, you’ll find them down around 7.5Ah for under $20.

  22. _Jim says:

    kadaka (KD Knoebel) says September 21, 2013 at 8:19 am

    New York City is not sustainable.

    With enough taxation, anything is possible (as long as the ‘host’ -er- tax payer survives). What occurs after that today (we know what happened in the past for various ‘empires’, and even for such large cities as Detroit even) when QE (Quantitative Easing; literally, ‘the printing of money’) is finally wound-down is anybody’s guess though. The ~recent development in energy extraction (fracturing) will delay the inevitable as abundantly available and reasonably-priced (cheap in a word) energy is the lifeblood of today’s society.

    But, your point is well taken.

    .

  23. Silver Ralph says:

    Yup, those boats look like they are at the same level as before.
    ;-)

  24. R. Shearer says:

    The building with the green roof and spire is the Trump Building (originally the Manhattan Company Building). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_Wall_Street

  25. Juice says:

    That building under construction is neither the ESB nor the Chrysler Building. The image shows only lower Manhattan. Those buildings are both in Midtown. I don’t know the name of the building though.

  26. Fernando (in Brazil) says:

    These things are wonderful.
    becomes an, WUWT the world’s best.

    A single photo from the 30s. Suggests that millions of photographs from the era of satellites, say nothing.

    thermometers on board???

  27. Climatism says:

    OVER on the other coast, there’s been no sea level rise in California for 73 years

    http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/437.php

    Yet doesn’t stop ARNIE from frightening the masses into a California state of climate guilt so they pay penance http://uk.reuters.com/article/2008/11/15/oukoe-uk-california-sealevel-idUKTRE4AE0YC20081115

  28. Juice says:

    The building is 70 Pine St.

  29. Col Mosby says:

    I don’t know your requirements, but golf cart batteries run around $100.
    I have always been told Trojan are best – their T 605 weighs 85 pounds, is 6 volts,
    will provide 210 amp hours at 20 hour disharge rate, Trojan makes lots and lots of different deep cycle batteries.

  30. _Jim says:

    Jason H says September 21, 2013 at 8:10 am

    I think the Empire State Building is to the left and way out of frame in both photographs.

    I would concur; The Empire State Bldg is halfway between the S. tip of Manhattan and Central Park.

    http://mappery.com/map-of/Manhattan-New-York-Map

    .

  31. Juice says:

    I think that was the building from Ghostbusters. :-)

  32. David Ball says:

    Could the modern photo have been taken during this insane presidential PR stunt?

    http://www.boreme.com/posting.php?id=22421

  33. _Jim says:

    David Ball says September 21, 2013 at 9:16 am

    Could the modern photo have been taken during this insane presidential PR stunt?

    http://www.boreme.com/posting.php?id=22421

    Was that insane (could have been, just sayin)?

    “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” And with this administration …

    .

  34. David Ball says:

    Good point _Jim. If it was stupidity, it was an extreme example.

  35. R. Shearer says:

    Juice appears to be correct, the building under construction is 70 Pine St. The Chrysler building is not in Lower Manhattan. The 3rd prominent skyscraper in the older photo appears to be 20 Exchange Place.

  36. How much dredging has been done in the harbor since 1930?
    Was the harbor and waterways deeper or shallower?

  37. tonyb says:

    RACook

    Not sea plane ramps but here are the 1945 D Day ramps in Torquay harbour on the South coast of England

    http://south-west-urbex.forums-free.info/t18-torquay-harbour-d-day-ramps-minewatchers-post-september-2010

    No, we can’t see any sea level rise either
    tonyb

  38. Whilst on the subject of historic structures with their feet in the sea, here is the famous Great Western Railway built by Brunel in the 1840’s in South West England

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Devon_Railway_sea_wall

    I walk this sea wall regularly and it is impossible to discern sea level rise over the intervening 170 years since the wall was built. It has ALWAYS been subject to storm damage as can be seen in the wiki write up.

    tonyb

  39. It looks like the rate of increase for the 80 years from ca 1856 to 1936 is at least as fast as the 80 years from 1930 to 2010, even if you use 2 separate trend lines. I have only eye-balled it but some one of you might want to do an accurate check. There doesn’t seem to be any acceleration of sea level rise due to recent global warming. Murray

  40. nutso fasst says:

    Good possibility the photo was taken Aug 27, 1931.

    “The Do X took off from Friedrichshafen, Germany on Nov 3, 1930 commencing its trans-Atlantic proving flight. The route took the Do X to Lisbon, down the Western African coast, across the Atlantic to South America, and north to the United States finally reaching New York on Aug 27, 1931.”

    Video: http://www.flixxy.com/dornier-do-x-1929-jumbo-airplane.htm

  41. Robert Austin says:

    I understand that the New York City area is still settling at about 1 mm / year from isostatic adjustment from the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet.

  42. John M says:

    From clues provided above…

    70 Pine Street – formerly known as the American International Building, 60 Wall Tower and originally as the Cities Service Building – is a 66-story, 952-foot (290 m) office building[4] located at the corner of Pearl Street and running to Cedar Street in the Financial District of Manhattan, New York City. It was built in 1931-32 by the Cities Service Company

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/70_Pine_Street

    The flight continued north to the United States, finally reaching New York on 27 August 1931,[6] almost nine months after departing Friedrichshafen.[1] The Do X and crew spent the next nine months there as its engines were overhauled, and thousands of sightseers made the trip to Glenn Curtiss Airport (now LaGuardia Airport) to tour the leviathan of the air. The economic effects of the Great Depression dashed Dornier’s marketing plans for the Do X, however, and it departed from New York on May 21, 1932 via Newfoundland and the Azores to Müggelsee, Berlin where it arrived on 24 May and was met by a cheering crowd of 200,000

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do-X

  43. John Moore says:

    I find it somewhat mystifying that there is so much confusion about sea level rise. It must be seen by people living near the sea shore — particularly where there are beaches. Allowing for Spring tides and Neap tides — do elderly residents notice any difference in the tide not going out so far as it did in the fifties say and do high tides seem noticeably much higher? I live just too far from the coast in SW England to be able to frequently check but we have fewer coastal town floods than in the say thirties to the fifties because various flood prevention schemes have been built. I have tackled the Met Office about it and they have passed me on to other agencies and there are websites which show some eight inches a century. The Ordnance Survey — who produce very high quality maps of the British Isles tell me that the datum point of Mean Sea Level for all their maps is at Newlyn Harbour in the far West of Cornwall which is the most southerly and westerly point in England. All present maps produced (they tell me) use the mean sea level at that point as it was in 1915 — 1921. So they haven’t decided to make great changes in spite of the fears of Global Warming Catastrophy spread by the Met Office. It also seems very difficult to find out how they tell the difference between sea level rising and the land falling. When the Thames Barrier was built in 1985 (to prevent London flooding) we were told it was because the land in the SE of England was falling — and rising in Scotland. Of course now we are told it is because of CGW!!

  44. TeeWee says:

    Anthony. There are some wonderful old time movies of the flying boat era on YouTube. Some are of San Francisco, others are in New York and other foreign locations. Pick out a landmark and stop action, you might be able to see the sea level then.

  45. Steven Mosher says:

    nobody asks about the time of observation. interesting to see skepticism in action. selective skepticism

    REPLY: Oh, bullshit Mr. Mosher. a. it isn’t relevant, because I’m pointing out you can’t tell from a photo anyway, and b. it was already discussed upthread. – Anthony

  46. Greg Goodman says:

    Mosh says: nobody asks about the time of observation.

    Oh yeah?

    Greg Goodman says:
    September 21, 2013 at 8:17 am

    “If that was an historic flight maybe it would be possible to find the data and the time it flew over Battery Park, then look up tide charts….”

    Bias confirmation in action there Mosh’

  47. Doug Huffman says:

    Greg Goodman says: September 21, 2013 at 8:05 am “Ya gotta admit the water does kinda look higher” Them’s TIDES. A glance (Wolfram | Alpha) showed a roughly six-foot tidal range for NY Harbor.

    And that is precisely the problem at issue. It’s difficult to pick the sense from then noisy non-sense.

  48. Bob Tisdale says:

    Anthony: I believe the highrise you’re pointing out that’s being topped in that early photo is the Woolworth Building at the 233 Broadway. Its copper top shows up well in the newer photo. The other giveaway is that the building is south of the Brooklyn Bridge. The Empire State and Chrysler Buildings are in midtown, many dozens of blocks north of the Brooklyn Bridge.

    The Woolworth Building (55 stories?) was completed in 1913, a couple of decades earlier than the Empire State Building (1931) and Chrysler Building (1930), making your visual comparison better by a few decades.

    Time for me to go back to my final proofreading of “Climate Models Fail”.

    Regards

  49. Bart says:

    Darren Potter says:
    September 21, 2013 at 8:35 am

    “Which resulted in land subsiding under weight of the numerous and massive buildings crammed full of people.”

    The buildings rest on the bedrock, and that doesn’t subside.

  50. Stephen of N cal says:

    At the same time that there is a claim that the sea is rising around NY the GPS a little south of Battery Park, shows that the land is sinking! So, which is it? Enjoy.

    http://www.sonel.org/-Vertical-land-movement-estimate-.html

  51. Peter Crawford says:

    Fernando of Brazil. Your comment is just shy of coherence so I can’t really address it. What I can say is that there are hundreds of photographs of my patch in Holyhead some dating back to not long after the breakwater was completed circa 1850 and none show any evidence of sea level rise that is discernible to the human eye. Some people may claim that they can detect miniscule sea level rises via satellite measurements. I very much doubt that. But the point remains that the seaside structures that were built nearly 200 years ago are still performing their functions and not a single professional mariner here has any serious worries that they will not do so for many decades to come.
    OK, you can go back to your Greenpeace pamphlets now.

  52. Greg Goodman says:

    Don’t misquote me Doug Huffman. What I said was:

    Ya gotta admit the water does kinda look higher ;)

  53. Theo Goodwin says:

    “What La Guardia Airport could look like with 5 feet of sea level rise, an amount that could occur by 2100, according to some estimates. Click on the image to enlarge. Credit: Nickolay Lamm/StorageFront , for Climate Central, using Climate Central data.”

    I guess it never occurred to Lamm that the Ninth Ward in New Orleans has been four feet below sea level “forever” but dry and would have continued so if some “levees” had not failed during Katrina. So, the disaster he has creatively Photoshopped for 2100 was solved in New Orleans maybe a hundred years ago, maybe hundreds of years ago.

    Adaptation beats mitigation every time. Well, except for Leftists all of whom live in an AlGorean fantasy world where the perfect and permanent climate of the Garden of Eden was corrupted through the sin of industrialization. AlGorean mythology is so close to the popular view of Genesis that AlGoreans might qualify as a heretical sect of Christians. I wonder who would be their counterpart of Christ?

  54. tonyb says:

    Mosh

    As has already been pointed out the observation regarding tides was made long before you turned up and failed to read the thread. You must stop looking at things on your phone

    tonyb

  55. John Moore

    I live on the coast in the South West and wrote this article about sea level rise through the ages

    http://judithcurry.com/2011/07/12/historic-variations-in-sea-levels-part-1-from-the-holocene-to-romans/

    This is a much longer and detailed study.

    http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/document.pdf

    The long and the short of it is that sea levels were higher in Roman times in Britain than today.

    Tonyb

  56. George Handel says:

    American International Building
    Alternative names – Cities Service Building, 60 Wall Tower

    Height (tip) 290.17 m
    Height (architectural) 290.17 m
    Height (roof) 260.00 m
    Floors (above ground) 66
    Construction start 1930
    Construction end 1932

  57. Lemming says:

    Someone asked about dredging, the Hudson River Channel in that area is authorized -45ft mlw and 2000 ft wide. The natural depth of the harbor is usually given as “18ft,” but varied widely.

    Regarding the “weight of the buildings,” recall that most Manhattan skyscrapers are founded on schist. Also consider that to make a tall building takes a deep foundation, a big hole that would reduce surcharge. I suspect most buildings are “neutrally buoyant,” effectively.

  58. ferd berple says:

    Rob Dawg says:
    September 21, 2013 at 8:19 am
    As a follow on to the world class surface stations triumph perhaps you could get people all over the world to compare historic coastal photography to current sea levels.
    ========
    what is quite amazing is the climate scientists use goofy proxies like marine growth rates to try and figure out sea levels 200-300 years ago, when there are super accurate records sitting in the British Admiralty nautical archives. marine charts from the period were all drawn to 1 foot accuracy within the 1st fathom.

    and while one will find things like a GPS datum correction and WGS datum correction on nautical charts, nowhere is there a global sea level rise correction. simply amazing given the volume of shipping and lives that depend daily on these charts.

    if sea level rise is real, why are mariners not up in arms to have the charts corrected? even a 1 foot difference in sea levels can save millions in fuel costs, by opening up passages that are otherwise too shallow.

  59. Doug Huffman says:

    Greg Goodman says: September 21, 2013 at 10:39 am “Don’t misquote me Doug Huffman. What I said was: Ya gotta admit the water does kinda look higher ;)” Only the incomparable Danish comedian Victor Borge could quote, or be quoted saying, that – and Victor Borge you’re not. I’ll try to not disturb your bliss again.

  60. Fernando (in Brazil) says:

    Peter Crawford says:
    September 21, 2013 at 10:38 am
    Fernando of Brazil. Your comment is just shy of coherence ….

    sorry, I’m a skeptic.

    Just not mastered the English language enough to be accurate.

    The image shows the same result as your observations and satellite observations.

    No evidence of an increased level of the sea.
    ………….
    Perhaps the increase in sea level is also hidden in the depths of the oceans [/ sarc

  61. Zeke says:

    WUWT says “From the “more proof Walmart is evil” department…”

    Studies have indicated that American families save as much as a few thousand dollars a year through the low prices offered at Walmart. With the money saved the family can make the decision to have only one income (a decision we made and are happy with), or save for future goals, or what have you. The point is, that the chain increases American’s purchasing power. In other sectors of the economy, rising prices for fuel, electricity, and food consistently sought by environmental activists reduce purchasing power parity in the US, and in effect, drain the middle class. They like to do this, while at the same time lionizing the Chinese economy by adjusting way up for PPP, which of course falsely vindicates centrally planned economies.

    Other positive effects of Walmart are the employment opportunities, super-efficiencies in direct buying, and its trucking and inventory system, which allow for quick response to local needs and even disaster relief. Walmart and other companies are known to stock up on many items before a storm hits, lessening the suffering from weather and storms. Our tremendous infrastructure and fossil fuel-based trucking and shipping not only give purchasing parity to those who would not otherwise have it, it allows flexible and powerful responses in local areas when needed.

  62. Zeke says:

    Correction: “increases the purchasing power of those who would otherwise lack it.”

    I encourage Walmart to continue to offer products from all over the world and resist the pressure from environmental NGOs to reduce shipping from overseas. Perhaps someday Walmart will be able to serve people in African countries.

  63. Mary says:

    Thanks for the photo. Another landmark site for observing sea level rise is the Galveston, Texas seawall, erected after the worst climate disaster in American history.

  64. R. Shearer says:

    Just to clearly summarize the sleuthing of the identities of the 3 tallest buildings in the old photo, they are left to right:
    40 Wall Street http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_Wall_Street
    70 Pine Street http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/70_Pine_Street
    20 Exchange Place http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_Exchange_Place

    The one with the green (copper) spire and roof is 40 Wall St and the one under construction is 70 Pine. Their names have changed and this list gives a lot of interesting facts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Skyline

  65. _Jim says:

    tonyb says September 21, 2013 at 10:41 am

    Mosh

    As has already been pointed out the observation regarding tides was made long before you turned up and failed to read the thread. You must stop looking at things on your phone

    Yes; talk about your observation bias (and could that also include ‘confirmation bias’ sometimes called “myside bias”*, as well as aspects of possible myopia and exhibited tunnel vision?) …

    Hint to Mosh (for next time): Perform a keyword search for terms/subjects that ‘intuition’ says may be lacking in a particular discussion thread as a ‘save’ to making outrageous assumptions.

    .

    .

    Only My Opinion Counts: Myside Bias A common error that occurs with everyday thinking is Myside Bias — the tendency for people to evaluate evidence, generate evidence, and test hypotheses in a manner biased toward their own opinions.

    .

  66. John S. says:

    I believe the building under construction is the 70 Pine Street Building.

  67. Bob Tisdale says:

    Darren Potter says: “Which resulted in land subsiding under weight of the numerous and massive buildings crammed full of people.”

    Darren, it is been said for decades that when they build a building in Manhattan (even a highrise) the weight of the bedrock removed (for the foundation) exceeds the total weight of the building. A old wives’ tale? Dunno.

  68. Greg Goodman says:

    Doug Huffman says:
    September 21, 2013 at 10:59 am

    Greg Goodman says: September 21, 2013 at 10:39 am “Don’t misquote me Doug Huffman. What I said was: Ya gotta admit the water does kinda look higher ;)” Only the incomparable Danish comedian Victor Borge could quote, or be quoted saying, that – and Victor Borge you’re not. I’ll try to not disturb your bliss again.
    ===

    So having taken a humoristic comment and misquoted it by deliberately removing the ” ;) ” (indicating it was a joke for those too simple to realise it without big red flag ) to try to make be out to be an imbecile who does not know what tides are, instead of apologising you try to divert with some obscure reference to Victor Borge in an equally insulting tone.

    You are rude, disingenuous, misquote and misrepresent facts.

    You’re not a AGW alarmist by any chance , are you?

  69. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    [SNIP uneccessarily bad examples for this discussion, almost sure to turn this thread into a flame war - mod]

  70. Jeff Alberts says:

    kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
    September 21, 2013 at 8:46 am

    While looking for a marine deep cycle battery to serve as storage for a solar powered remote weather station and webcam I’m designing…

    Sealed lead acid (SLA), here’s a 12V 12Ah general-type deep cycle AGM, 9 pounds. $33.

    http://www.batteryspec.com/cgi-bin/cart.cgi?action=link&product=300G6

    Used for wheelchairs and scooters, thus outdoor exposure on a par with a weather station in a ventilated rain-shielded enclosure. Plain male spade terminals.

    Go play on Amazon, look for “sla sealed lead acid deep cycle battery 12v 12 volt”, you’ll find them down around 7.5Ah for under $20.

    I don’t know of a power chair that uses batteries as small as 12ah (I repair them for a living). There might be some out there, but I’ll wager they’re extremely rare. Smaller scooters do use 12ah batteries, but PWCs use group U-1 (~35ah) and higher.

  71. Mark says:

    johnmarshall says:

    Comparing those two photographs above it looks like a small sea level fall.

    This could just be due to tides. Wonder what the average daily sea level change around Manhattan is. Probably considerably more than 22cm.

  72. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Jeff Alberts on September 21, 2013 at 11:57 am:

    I don’t know of a power chair that uses batteries as small as 12ah (I repair them for a living). There might be some out there, but I’ll wager they’re extremely rare. Smaller scooters do use 12ah batteries, but PWCs use group U-1 (~35ah) and higher.

    Don’t they group smaller ones in parallel? With the right electronics, or mere electrical circuits, you can increase reliability by disconnecting faulty ones. Three of those get the U-1 range, if one goes out then you still have about 2/3 range. Makes the difference between getting back from the store or not.

    And I’ve seen designs that have at least two battery boxes. Multiple smaller batteries can be placed in various nooks for a more compact design.

    For the planned solar-powered weather station and webcam (wi-fi or cellular?), 12Ah should be enough for several cloudy days.

  73. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Zeke on September 21, 2013 at 11:08 am:

    Perhaps someday Walmart will be able to serve people in African countries.

    Walmart International – Africa:

    Massmart
    Walmart acquired a majority stake in Massmart Holdings Ltd. in 2011. Massmart operates more than 350 stores in South Africa and 11 other sub-Saharan countries. Brands include: Game, DionWired, Makro, Kangela, Builders Warehouse, Builders Express, Builders Trade Depot, CBW, and Jumbo Cash and Carry.

    2013 August 23: Wal-Mart Opening 90 Stores in Africa

    Just Google “walmart africa” to see all the good they’re doing there.

  74. The building nearing completion is 70 Pine Street. It’s very much still there in the modern picture, just surrounded by lots of other tall buildings. 55 Wall Street is now in front of it, but you can still see its top. It was built as the headquarters for the Cities Service oil company, and more recently was the headquarters of the AIG insurance company. Empire State Building and Chrysler Building are both about 4+ miles away in the Midtown area and not visible here.

  75. nutso fasst says:

    bart: “The buildings rest on the bedrock, and that doesn’t subside.”

    It seems to me that if bedrock didn’t subside, there would be no such thing as isostatic adjustment and the belief in plate tectonics would need to be de-consensualized.

  76. FrankK says:

    Robert Austin says:
    September 21, 2013 at 9:49 am

    I understand that the New York City area is still settling at about 1 mm / year from isostatic adjustment from the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet.
    ——————————————————————————————————-
    Indeed. Could even be a little higher and could account for a portion of the “measured” sealevel rise.

  77. rogerknights says:

    Maybe SLR could be detected by examining the encrustations etc. on the piles the piers rest on (???).

  78. TheLastDemocrat says:

    the several layers of subway lines attest that the foundation of Manhattan is Moh’s definitely very solid. They are dug into granite, I believe.

    Material has been dug and carted off to build the subways and other underground infrastructure. On the Circle-Line Tour, I heard that by weight more material has been removed from Manhattan than has been built up on its surface in buildings, etc.
    Therefore, if anything, due to weight change on the balance, Manhattan Island ought to be rising.

    I believe Nat Geo once did an article on underground Manhattan.

  79. wobble says:

    Juice says:
    September 21, 2013 at 9:06 am

    That building under construction is neither the ESB nor the Chrysler Building. The image shows only lower Manhattan. Those buildings are both in Midtown.

    Concur. It’s neither.

    Is there another way to date the photo?

  80. wobble says:

    *** Please Note ***

    There is an entire new building on the extreme left side of the recent picture! Look carefully, this building sits atop land that didn’t even exist in the older picture.

  81. Briney Eye says:

    I think the building under construction is 66 Pine Street, which went up in 1932, according to this interesting map: http://bdon.org/2013/09/12/building-age-nyc/

  82. Paul Linsay says:

    My tidal calculator only goes back to 1950 so I can’t provide an accurate tidal range for 8/27/1931. Typical tidal range at the Battery is about 5 feet with the exact value depending on the lunar phase.

  83. jorgekafkazar says:

    Yes, that’s definitely the Dornier Doh-X. A great feat of German engineering? No, for two reasons: (1) it was a flop, and (2) it was built in Switzerland.

    Believe it or not, a DO-X1 and X2 were built and sold to Mussolini. The X was hugely underpowered and overdesigned, based on non-state-of-the-art technology, and Dornier must have known its deficiencies. Among other nifty (but heavy) features, were passageways giving access to the engines while in flight. For a great summary of the DO-X, see: http://air-boyne.com/the-dornier-do-x-what-might-have-been/

  84. Peter Crawford says:

    Fernando in Brazil – apologies for misunderstanding you. My fault. Your English is 100% better than my Portuguese.

  85. Matthew W says:

    Greg Goodman says:
    September 21, 2013 at 8:05 am
    Ya gotta admit the water does kinda look higher ;)
    ===============================================
    No, it looks deeper

  86. Graeme M says:

    Sea Level Rise has always intrigued me. Remember, sea ‘level’ is Mean Sea Level, an average. It is possible for that value to be influenced by different aspects of the tidal cycle. However if on the whole sea level is rising, there must be some humanly observable effect. Otherwise, what of it?

    That said NO-ONE is going to notice a change of 8″ in MSL. As Mosher points out, the time of observation also plays a big role when looking for evidence of sea level rise in local tides. But if no-one can see that extra foot in action then it’s unlikely small rises have any effect.

    There do seem however to be plenty of anecdotal claims that SLR has not been noticeable at many places around the world.

    Personally, I’d like to see a crowd sourced project with a website where people can contribute photos and anecdotes to show how much SLR has affected their neck of the woods in the past 100 years.

    I’d also like to see kind of evidence of the height of the HAT for each year for the past 100 years in various places. Because that’s where we’d see evidence of an actual physical rise in sea levels. Or maybe something like mean high tide values for each year.

    There’s a challenge for anyone who know how to find it, do we have HAT records for say the past 100 years at The Battery?

  87. Steve P says:

    Briney Eye says:
    September 21, 2013 at 1:32 pm

    I think the building under construction is 66 Pine Street, which went up in 1932…

    Good call. I think the tower of similar height to its left would be 40 Wall St., built in 1930.

    http://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?searchID=25002271

  88. Berényi Péter says:

    It is 1880.

  89. Steve P says:

    Juice says:
    September 21, 2013 at 9:11 am

    The building is 70 Pine St.

    Sorry. Missed your earlier comment.

  90. That building is neither the ESB, nor the Chrysler Bldg. Both are way off frame to the left, that’s downtown, near Wall St.

  91. Brian H says:

    Aside from the bogus Maldives rent-seekers’ scam, is there evidence or anecdotal reporting of SLR problems anywhere? No, storm surges don’t count as post facto evidence. Nor do instances of destruction and disruption of coral islands by overbuilding. Especially irrelevant are the rapidly-sinking-land gauges in Hong Kong.

  92. Fernando (in Brazil) says:

    On 22 August the Do X arrived in Miami. The crew finished their journey on 27 August 1931 via Charleston and Norfolk at New York Harbour

    http://www.aer.ita.br/~bmattos/mundo/exp/dox.htm

    ==================================
    Chrysler Building……Years as World’s Tallest Building…..1930-1931

    http://tallest-buildings.findthedata.org/l/37/Chrysler-Building

    Beginning of Construction 1928
    End of Construction 1930
    Date Opened 1931
    ====================================
    Empire State Building
    Governor Smith’s grandchildren cut the ribbon on May 1, 1931. Lewis Wickes Hine’s photography of the construction provides not only invaluable documentation of the construction, but also a glimpse into common day life of workers in that era.[27] [wiki]

    ref, 27 = http://nypl.bibliocommons.com/

    ====================================

    In my country it is common to usher in buildings unfinished.
    We are trying to upgrade.

  93. galileonardo says:

    I tried doing a comparison using the photos from the post, but the difference in position and altitude made for a poor comparison. I found an alternative photo online from 2006 and although there is also an issue with elevation, it is a near-perfect match otherwise. I made a new comparison and here is the resulting animated GIF.

    I cropped it to the foreground to get rid of the elevation distraction. Note the alignment from old to new of the buildings toward the left (the three in a row that still exist). Pretty spot in. The conclusion as to what is different 80 years later? Not a heck of a whole lot…but I guess you guys already realized that. As Mr. Watts says in the post and in his response to Mr. Mosher’s foot-in-mouth, can’t really tell from a photo anyway. I too responded to the National Geographic alarmism via post and letter. Shine the spotlight whenever possible. Watch them scatter. Cheers!

  94. Richard Vada says:

    Like that twit Gavin Schmidt said “…it’s like it really IS there if you look hard enough.”

    Or whatever he said as the functioning mouthpiece / representative of crime.in.government

    What a crock.

  95. Janice Moore says:

    Mahattan Waterfront, 1937

    23 years later and everything looks, heh, waddaya know, pretty much the same.
    (I can read lips, though, and I saw Dad tell his son, “Before your grandchildren are 20 years old, all that will be underwater.”
    Son: “Even the Statue of Liberty, Dad?”
    Dad: “Yes, son,” nodding, ” up to her armpits. Oh, it’s bound to happen; my cousin Jim Hansen told me.”

    Aaaaaand, just to lighten things up a bit….. #(:)) VICTOR BORGE!

    On, er, punctuation…. ;)

  96. nutso fasst says:

    TheLastDemocrat: “…by weight more material has been removed from Manhattan than has been built up on its surface in buildings…”

    The island has become top-heavy and is in danger of capsizing if the wind is strong enough.

    Seriously, isn’t all the material that is removed used as landfill to expand the shoreline?

  97. u.k.(us) says:

    Richard Vada says:

    September 21, 2013 at 6:04 pm

    Like that twit Gavin Schmidt said “…
    ===============
    We can go down that path, were does it lead us ?

  98. Fernando (in Brazil) says:

  99. Mike McMillan says:

    nutso fasst says: September 21, 2013 at 6:55 pm
    … The island has become top-heavy and is in danger of capsizing if the wind is strong enough.

    That was a different island, not Manhattan. This guy shoulda’ been VP.

    The bedrock under Manhattan is indeed what is subsiding in the glacial rebound. The building height on the island parallels the depth of the bedrock, tall buildings in lower Manhattan and near Central Park, where the bedrock is near the surface, and shorter buildings in between, where the bedrock layer is farther down.

  100. janama says:

    Forgive me if this has been posted before.
    The image also comes from this site:

    http://www.cyburbia.org/forums/showthread.php?t=12383

    Where there are 3 images of the area

    1913 – http://www.cyburbia.org/gallery/data/6529/0261.jpg

    1928 – http://www.cyburbia.org/gallery/data/6529/0331.jpg

    1931 – http://www.cyburbia.org/gallery/data/6529/0401.jpg

  101. Worried about LaGuardia flooding? Here’s a reminder:

    Built for the New York World’s Fair of 1939-1940, LaGuardia Airport borders Bowery and Flushing bays on the site of the Gala amusement park and a
    small airport, which was enlarged by reclaiming 350 acres of waterfront.

    i.e. The “natural” state of the land is swamp. Well, it was about 100 years ago.

    More photos of NYC that I found along the way.

  102. RACookPE1978 says:

    John Spencer says:
    September 21, 2013 at 7:44 pm
    1851 – http://memory.loc.gov/cgi-bin/image-services/jp2.py?data=/home/www/data/gmd/gmd380/g3804/g3804n/pm005943.jp2&res=2

    janama says:
    September 21, 2013 at 7:52 pm
    1931 – http://www.cyburbia.org/gallery/data/6529/0401.jpg

    SEE! From 1851 to 1921 – a short span of only 70 years! - the entire land area around the Fort Clinton was newly exposed to dry land and planted with trees and sidewalks because of receding sea level in the Atlantic Ocean caused by the shortening of the Mississippi River that Mark Twain will notice only 32 years later.

  103. EO Peter says:

    According to [www.badische-zeitung.de/freizeittipps/bewegte-zeiten-am-bodensee--47216005.html] the picture source is “EADS/ Dornier GmbH” and is related with its arrival on 27 August 1931.

    (Translation): “… the giant turned its first lap around the Statue of Liberty and splashed down in the Hudson River in New York City, in front of the Manhattan skyline.”

  104. RACookPE1978 says:

    from: http://www.lhup.edu/~DSimanek/twain.htm

    EXTRAPOLATION
    by Mark Twain
    The last line of this excerpt from Life on the Mississippi is often quoted as an example of the dangers of extrapolation. Here it is in context.

    One of the Mississippi’s oddest peculiarities is that of shortening its length from time to time. If you will throw a long, pliant apple-paring over your shoulder, it will pretty fairly shape itself into an average section of the Mississippi River; that is, the nine or ten hundred miles stretching from Cairo, Illinois, southward to New Orleans, the same being wonderfully crooked, with a brief straight bit here and there at wide intervals. The two-hundred-mile stretch from Cairo northward to St. Louis is by no means so crooked, that being a rocky country which the river cannot cut much.

    The water cuts the alluvial banks of the `lower’ river into deep horseshoe curves; so deep, indeed, that in some places if you were to get ashore at one extremity of the horseshoe and walk across the neck, half or three quarters of a mile, you could sit down and rest a couple of hours while your steamer was coming around the long elbow, at a speed of ten miles an hour, to take you aboard again. When the river is rising fast, some scoundrel whose plantation is back in the country, and therefore of inferior value, has only to watch his chance, cut a little gutter across the narrow neck of land some dark night, and turn the water into it, and in a wonderfully short time a miracle has happened: to wit, the whole Mississippi has taken possession of that little ditch, and placed the countryman’s plantation on its bank.

    Pray observe some of the effects of this ditching business. The Mississippi between Cairo and New Orleans was twelve hundred and fifteen miles long one hundred and seventy-six years ago. It was eleven hundred and eighty after the cut-off of 1722. It was one thousand and forty after the American Bend cut-off. It has lost sixty-seven miles since. Consequently its length is only nine hundred and seventy-three miles at present.

    Now, if I wanted to be one of those ponderous scientific people, and `let on’ to prove what had occurred in the remote past by what had occurred in a given time in the recent past, or what will occur in the far future by what has occurred in late years, what an opportunity is here! Geology never had such a chance, nor such exact data to argue from! Nor `development of species’, either! Glacial epochs are great things, but they are vague–vague. Please observe. In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. This is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upward of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.

    Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi 173-6 (1883)

  105. Darren Potter says:

    Bart says: “The buildings rest on the bedrock, and that doesn’t subside.”

    Are you certain? Do some research on subsidence involving bedrock, and mining or oil/gas extraction, or good old mother nature.

    But back to Tidal gauge, it has been reported it sits on fill dirt and is not anchored to bedrock.

  106. Janice Moore says:

    AGW in a nutshell:

    “One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”

    Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi 173-6 (1883)
    (quoted at 8:31PM by R. A. Cook, P. Engineer (is the P for “Precious” or “Physical” or “Phenomenal”???)

    Nice quote, R. A. — thank you for sharing for the wonderful humor in the entire quote above.
    ***********************************************************************
    And thank you,
    John Spencer — your post is a treasure trove.
    Janama — intriguing images.
    Herr Felsche — GREAT before-after collection.
    and
    Fernando (the one in Brazil) — beautiful image quality.

    Wow! This thread is richly embellished by all that great photography.

    And those rotten Envirostalinists want us to go back to the days when tired, old, horses wearily pulled all our goods to market. They really love animals, don’t they? Such kind, caring, people — NOT. (“Build more windmills” — what’s a few dead golden eagles… .)

    **********************************************
    And, hey, Fernando, we are so glad you are here — clear from Brazil! #(:))

    In our little way, all of us promoting truth on WUWT are fighting for liberty, so, even though this little song sung by two Swedish women in 1976 was JUST FOR FUN (to welcome you to WUWT),
    I think, on another level, it fits.
    Fernando

    Keep up the fight for truth!

    (however….unlike the guys in that song) —
    –Truth will WIN.

    YOU GO, WUWT people!

  107. Janice Moore says:

    Oh, and Mike McMillan (at 7:30PM) LAUGH – OUT – LOUD.

    “Yes, boys and girls, those buildings you see for the next 10 blocks were all 200 stories higher just ten years ago.”

  108. milodonharlani says:

    wobble says:
    September 21, 2013 at 1:16 pm

    No need for an alternative means of dating the photo.

    The Do X means the date has to be 1931-32.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_X

  109. Jeff (of Colorado) says:

    Look at the shadows on the buildings, the West sides are in shadow so it is before noon to 1-ish. The buildings seen to the left of the wings have shadows that are closer to noon shadows than 8:00am. What was the tide at at 11:00 am?

  110. David Davidovics says:

    I realize this isn’t the main topic here, but its nice to see photos from the golden age of flight. The DO-x wasn’t perfect but it still brings back memories as a kid when I tried to scrounge the school library for information about it (no internet back then). There was just something about it that caught my imagination.

  111. Janice Moore says:

    Great detective work, Jeff!

    (sorry, not going to research what the tide was… someone will find that out, though, no doubt)

  112. wobble says:

    milodonharlani says:
    September 21, 2013 at 10:01 pm

    No need for an alternative means of dating the photo.

    The Do X means the date has to be 1931-32.

    Um, claiming that the photo must have been taken between 1931 and 1932 because the photo shows a Do X flying IS an alternative means of dating the photo.

  113. Hot under the collar says:

    Didn’t Al Gore say he took the photo so he could post it when “he invented the Internet”?

  114. Jack Simmons says:

    I had to unlearn something today; or at least consider a modification of an assumption I’ve walked around with for several years.

    Previous belief was Manhattan skyline, the clustering of skyscrapers in particular, was dictated by the availability of bedrock close to the surface. Personally, I had taken this ‘theory’ to an extreme in my own mind. I thought there was an absence of suitable bedrock for skyscrapers where there were no skyscrapers.

    Checking for documentation of the geology of Manhattan driving the placement of skyscrapers, I discovered this interesting paper: http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/economics/dp2010_09_barr_tassier_trendafilov.pdf

    the title of which is “Bedrock Depth and the Formation of the Manhattan
    Skyline, 1890-1915∗.”

    In this paper they neatly sum up my previous view, along with a more reasonable explanation for skyscraper placement in Manhattan, in their abstract:

    Skyscrapers in Manhattan must be anchored to bedrock to prevent (possibly
    uneven) settling; this can potentially increase construction costs if the bedrock
    lies deep below the surface. The conventional wisdom holds that Manhattan developed two business centers—downtown and midtown—because bedrock is close to
    the surface in these locations, with a bedrock “valley” deep below the surface in
    between. We measure the effects of building costs associated with bedrock depths,
    relative to other important economic variables in the location of early Manhattan
    skyscrapers. We find that bedrock depths had very little influence on the creation
    of separate business districts; rather its poly-centric development was due to residential and manufacturing patterns, and public transportation hubs. We do find
    evidence, however, that bedrock depths influenced the placement of skyscrapers
    within business districts.

    So, bedrock placement did have some effect on the locations chosen for skyscrapers, but other factors played a larger role. Other factors included the price of the land, transportation hubs, economic classes of the neighborhoods, etc.

    I also noticed no one suggested a huge geological modification project for Manhattan; builders simply adapted to what they had to work with.

    It’s a paper at least worth looking at.

  115. johanna says:

    EO Peter – thanks very much for sourcing the picture. We may never know who the photographer was, but presumably it was someone employed or temporarily hired by Dorling. I suppose it was taken from another aircraft?

  116. Hysteria says:

    @ Graeme M says:
    September 21, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    I recall a post here at WUWT some time ago about looking at old Admiralty maps – the Royal Navy was making accurate charts back in the 18th C. So a (relatively simple?) comparison between then and now should reveal something, I would have thought. I think the example in this blog was an island in the S Pacific, and also an old watercolour of Valetta harbour compared with a modern photo……

  117. Fernando (in Brazil) says:

    Janice Moore;
    thank you
    the battle for truth continues.
    =================================
    I know it has no scientific value.
    Just an observation.
    the tide chart,

    juicy

    The Battery, NY
    08/27/1931
    Station Date Time Pred 6
    DCP#: 1
    Units: Feet
    Data%: MLLW GMT 100.00
    Maximum: 5.31
    Minimum: 0.19

    ============================

    The Battery, NY
    08/27/2013
    Station Date Time Pred 6 Vrfy 6
    DCP#: 1 1
    Units: Feet Feet
    Data%: MLLW GMT 100.00 100.00
    Maximum: 4.88 4.92
    Minimum: 0.77 0.75 ,

    ==============================

    08/27/1931 > 08/27/2013

  118. burnside says:

    The Dornier arrived at NYC Aug 27th, 1931.

  119. nutso fasst says:

    Fernando (in Brazil): 08/27/1931 > 08/27/2013

    However, the low tide value is 6.96 inches higher–2mm/year. That’s about 0.75mm/yr less than NOAA’s estimate for the period.

  120. Glenn says:

    “Due to local land subsidence, sea level rise is rising faster at The Battery than at 85% of the other GLOSS-LTT tide gauges in the world, but the rate of rise has been nearly constant for over a century…”

    http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1204/1204.0146.pdf

  121. Joe Crawford says:

    Greg Goodman says (September 21, 2013 at 8:09 am): “Out of interest, are marine batteries cheaper than other commerical deep discharge? I would have though that leisure marine market was as much as rip off as camper or solar markets. …”

    I can’t speak for current conditions but when I lived aboard a sail boat in the Caribbean during most of the ’90’s most boats used those 6 volt (100 or 200 amp-hour) golf cart batteries as the most reliable and least expensive batteries on a life-cycle basis.

  122. Jeff Alberts says:

    kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
    September 21, 2013 at 12:17 pm

    I’ve replied in the open thread in order to not go too far OT: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/22/open-thread-13/#comment-1423638

  123. goldminor says:

    nutso fasst says:
    September 21, 2013 at 9:47 am

    Good possibility the photo was taken Aug 27, 1931.
    —————————————————————-
    If that date is correct, then that was the day before a full moon.

  124. goldminor says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    September 21, 2013 at 10:06 am

    nobody asks about the time of observation. interesting to see skepticism in action. selective skepticism
    ————-
    From what I can judge by looking at the building shadows in the photo, I would place the picture between late morning or slightly after noon, as a range of possibility.

  125. Bart says:

    nutso fasst says:
    September 21, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    “It seems to me that if bedrock didn’t subside, there would be no such thing as isostatic adjustment and the belief in plate tectonics would need to be de-consensualized.”

    Point taken. But, in the context of the weight of buildings and other development, these should not affect it.

    Darren Potter says:
    September 21, 2013 at 9:17 pm

    “But back to Tidal gauge, it has been reported it sits on fill dirt and is not anchored to bedrock.”

    My point is simply that the mass of the buildings and such is not really relevant. Or, at least, I don’t think it should be. If you find evidence otherwise, by all means share it. It would be interesting, I think, to compare the mass of all the buildings in NYC with the mass of the Earth beneath. I would bet the latter is much greater, since it is closely compacted and dense everywhere, whereas the buildings do not cover the ground everywhere and are mostly empty air.

  126. goldminor says:

    Jeff (of Colorado) says:
    September 21, 2013 at 11:17 pm

    Look at the shadows on the buildings, the West sides are in shadow so it is before noon to 1-ish. The buildings seen to the left of the wings have shadows that are closer to noon shadows than 8:00am. What was the tide at at 11:00 am?
    ——————————————————–
    I see that Jeff had the same thought before me regarding the shadows cast by the buildings. I posted after reading S Mosher,s comment.

  127. Ed Mertin says:

    Zeke, Wal~Mart in Arkiefornia is not saving people money. Since they have basically run out all the competition they can and do charge whatever suits their fancy and still not pay their non-management associates nearly a living wage. Albertson’s is their only competitor in NW Arkansas, they are employee owned and have customers who prefer better quality/ service at a store that pays a decent wage.

    This is my favorite store in the entire US of A.
    Woodman’s Food Market
    1 (262) 857-3801
    7145 120th Ave, Kenosha, WI 53142

    http://goo.gl/maps/7nKxz

    There are other Woodman’s scattered about Wisconsin and Northern Illinois and are just as good. I know you can save a thousand or more off of Wal~Mart’s prices. I load up when able to get by one. I’m considering a second home just to be nearby.

    WinCo Foods probably comes in second. Sam’s Club, Meijer, Giant, Country Mart, Kroger all rate above Wal~Mart. Giant Eagle, Ingles, Hy Vee, Wegman’s, HE Butt and Food City. I shop at them all. Probably every one of them pays better living wages than Wal~Mart. Wal~Mart is actually rather in the way of better buying power and wages for the poor.

  128. _Jim says:

    Ed Mertin says September 22, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    … and still not pay their non-management associates nearly a living wage.

    What is a ‘living wage’ Ed? Are these people not living, or just not “living it up” (as the saying goes?)

    I found out this pat week, Ed, that we have the ‘richest’ poor people in the world! Did you know that? How can that be?

    The following are facts about persons defined as “poor” by the Census Bureau as taken from various government reports:

    – 80 percent of poor households have air conditioning. In 1970, only 36 percent of the entire U.S. population enjoyed air conditioning.
    – 92 percent of poor households have a microwave.
    – Nearly three-fourths have a car or truck, and 31 percent have two or more cars or trucks.
    – Nearly two-thirds have cable or satellite TV.
    – Two-thirds have at least one DVD player, and 70 percent have a VCR.
    – Half have a personal computer, and one in seven have two or more computers.
    – More than half of poor families with children have a video game system, such as an Xbox or PlayStation.
    – 43 percent have Internet access.
    – One-third have a wide-screen plasma or LCD TV.
    – One-fourth have a digital video recorder system, such as a TiVo.

    … in reality, most of the poor do not experience hunger or food shortages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture collects data on these topics in its household food security survey. For 2009, the survey showed:
    – 96 percent of poor parents stated that their children were never hungry at any time during the year because they could not afford food.
    – 83 percent of poor families reported having enough food to eat.
    – 82 percent of poor adults reported never being hungry at any time in the prior year due to lack of money for food.

    Other government surveys show that the average consumption of protein, vitamins, and minerals is virtually the same for poor and middle-class children and is well above recommended norms in most cases.

    Ed, who is poor that they should receive this ‘living’ wage? Are you also not aware of assistance programs such as SNAP?

    There are also those that would contend that the minimum wage is not a “living wage” so much as an “entry level wage”, a starting wage, a training wage, and a stepping stone wage to better wages. Just like a job at McDonald’s is not a job to raise a family on. It’s an entry level job, a starting job, a training job, a stepping stone job to bigger and better jobs.

    .

  129. EO Peter says:

    My best guess is that Dornier contracted Fairchild Aviation to take aerial pictures of the arrival due to the fact it was a big marketting (or propaganda) operation from the start. It is reasonable to think a FC-2 was used for the job. Sharpness of the aerial picture suggest Fairchild equipment used.

    From another source: [www.letletlet-warplanes.com/2008/06/04/german-flying-boats-part-1-1914-1935/] “From Brazil the Do-X continued its flight following the coast of the continent and later it crossed the Caribbean to Miami -Florida. It arrived here on 22 August 1931. Four days later it reached the harbour of New York.” This one suggest 26 August.

    As stated by another commenter, if we look at shadows, the Sun seem high & south or slightly to the east. Also, according to: [http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov] THE BATTERY,NY Station ID: 8518750 for 27-08-1931 had high tide around 13:00z (09:00LOCAL), measured 4.12ft at this time (this is not the max point but very near), and low tide around 19:00z (15:00LOCAL) at 0.02ft. Note that these NOAA data use GMT-4 for LOCAL, and I have no clue if NY still used EDT after WWI & there is no mention AFAIK of original data used system. Anyway, midday is 17:00z & shadows suggest time of picture 16:00z where reported tide data are at 1.82ft & falling (if we assume orig. data in GMT). For anyone knowledgeable in these matter, would it be reasonable to assume the pilot of the flying boat tried to match high tide for arrival, but was little late?

    According to: [http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/vphase-post.sh], 27-08-1931 was near full moon.

    FYI, there is a treasure trove of historical map of Manhattan accessible at: [www.davidrumsey.com/]

  130. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Jeff Alberts on September 22, 2013 at 9:42 am:

    I’ve replied in the open thread in order to not go too far OT:

    Which did absolutely nothing useful as this is an established side-topic that came from the original post. It would be ungentlemanly to speculate as to your true motives at this point so I shall forgo such for now.

    So the wheelchairs use batteries in series, not parallel. Easy enough to just say here without massive re-quoting over there. Makes sense to keep the voltage higher thus less amperage for reduced wire size and otherwise less-costlier devices.

    So replace an individual 12v with two 12v that are half the size, connect in parallel, connect the sets in series for the voltage. If one battery fails then you only have about half the amperage so you can’t go too fast, but you’re still moving.

    Is the failure rate really so low it is acceptable to risk operation on all of two or three of the larger batteries remaining functioning? Around town I see people use their chairs in place of a car, traveling dozens of blocks for shopping. We definitely do not have 24/7 taxi service. Any breakdown would be a tragedy.

    Also, you said in the wrong place:

    Certainly a different application than a solar battery array.

    But this is not exactly a solar battery array. Instead of high drain and fast charge, for this application it’s low drain and trickle charge. It’ll still be deep cycling, but not as harsh a treatment. As for the weather conditions, comparable as earlier stated.

    Thus a battery suitable for scooters and “personal mobility systems” may be slightly more than the requirements, but would cover them cheaply.

  131. EO Peter says:

    About the NOAA sea level graph for NY sloping at 2.77mm/yr, call me stupid if you want since this is not my field, but is there any correction for isostatic rebound? It is repported by [http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ecalais/projects/noam/jgr06/] as near -2.5mm/yr (minus = rock going down) for around Manhattan. Coincidence?

    Also, Anthony, I think that Lead Acid chemistry for solar energy storage is not a good solution. Pb/H2SO4 need to be kept at full charge level to avoid sulfation. Since your usage is not calling for high discharge rate, deep cycle w/t its stronger plate structure is a good choice, but Plante battery (if you can find a true one) and weight & low current are no problems would be better & support desulfation torture better. Dont think VRLA (AGM/Gel) are strong enough, they are optimised for safety.

    I’m no expert in battery but since your application seem to be located in the “wild” Lithium is probably too fragile. Ni-Cd seem to me a good choice to investigate. Maybe LiFePo4 worth a look also.

    If you select Pb/H2SO4 deep cycle, use a big margin of supply production for your solar pannel vs needed load to try to keep the battery most of the time at >= 80% & it shall do fine.

  132. Jim from Maine says:

    Didn’t read all of the replies, but in the RV world, about the best value in batteries that you can find are 6v golf cart batts. Costco usually has them for about $80ea, and they are a much better deep cycle than marine batts.
    Many RVers who “boondock” use them due to their deep discharge charactaristics and high capacity.

    Jim

  133. Zeke says:

    Wal-Mart Stores Profit Margin Quarterly:
    3.48% for July 31, 2013

    Plainly, Walmart is making less than 4cents per dollar and they know what to pay employees, while still offering the thousands of dollars in savings per year to families across the country.

    Perhaps the poster above would like to dictate and militate that companies must not make more than 3cents per dollar? What exactly is being suggested here? May I have the profit margin this poster assumes is ideal? And if less than 4cents is too much profit, go after a tech company which does 20%. THHEEEN, after you have destroyed the continual improvements and innovations in technology (which requires re-investment of high profits into R&D, capital and employment) at some company like Microsoft, bring your worthless, useless, failed business model to Walmart and ruin more efficiency and innovation – as well as increased purchasing power for the customers – there.

    What many people do not understand about our economy is that those who are poor at any given time are not the same people who are poor after a decade. Home ownership, marriage, long term employment with a company or continued education are all factors which show in longitudinal studies to contribute to upward mobility. It is no sin to have a starter home and to have an entry level job, or to be in retail until you formulate your plan for a career. Walmart is in the business of providing what people need at the best prices.

    However, I do not feel sorry for or look down on these employees. Over 75% of the management started as hourly associates, and Walmart offers education benefits to get a degree.

  134. Bruce says:

    I know this is really late now, but anyone notice the sky scraper in the “new” photo where the peir once was, I believe it may be the Ritz Carlton Battery Park? Some of the buildings are the same as the original photo, so it’s easy to see. But the new building is Southwest “in the water” across from what I believe is the Whitehall building. Sea levels my be rising, but seriously, they have been for thousands of years, doesn’t seem to stop people from developing by the sea….

  135. Ed Mertin says:

    And like the other stores I mentioned don’t do the same thing and maybe better. Without having the EDF inside their corporate offices ready to come visit vendors and say hey we’re not going to buy from you unless you do these emissions improvements. Hurting their margins or driving them to foreign countries.

    I’ve worked quite a few tornado, hurricanes and other disaster in my 25 year career spotting dry box trailers and containers for people to put their belongings in. Brought in quite a few relief supplies from a lot of other places besides just Wal~Mart. That’s how I met Ross Perot.

    When I get time I’ll be back. It’s Harp’s, not Albertson’s in NWA competition. Busy, busy, busy as a monkey tree.

    I saw Paul Ryan in Janesville, WI right after the election buying ammo at Gander Mountain. Didn’t get a chance to ask wuwt? He did say he left the Stench on the east coast.

  136. Ed Mertin says:

    I bloody worked at Wal~Mart in the early eighties and got polygraphed 4 times as did the whole bunch of us by them money grubbing control freaks anytime anything went missing. Sam’s bird dog tried to run oft with me. They don’t promote many associates to management. They go to colleges and do recruiting.

  137. Dave says:

    Neither the Chrysler nor Empire State building are are south of the Brooklyn bridge which the building in the photo clearly is.

  138. Bob Mount says:

    According to Google Earth, The skyscraper with the azure roof top is on Wall St, next to Trinity church. The other is on Pine St, ~200 meters further East as the crow flies. I could not fine the names for these buildings and street level views of NY are difficult to follow.

  139. Jeff Alberts says:

    kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
    September 22, 2013 at 2:56 pm

    From Jeff Alberts on September 22, 2013 at 9:42 am:

    I’ve replied in the open thread in order to not go too far OT:

    Which did absolutely nothing useful as this is an established side-topic that came from the original post. It would be ungentlemanly to speculate as to your true motives at this point so I shall forgo such for now.

    I was trying not to go OT. That should have been obvious, and was spelled out. Just because this is an “established side-topic” doesn’t mean it should continue here.

    And the “copious quoting” was so that others would know what was being discussed to a degree if they were interested.

    Sorry to have wasted your time, and mine.

    Perhaps you should switch to decaf…

  140. kbc says:

    “” Zeke says:
    September 21, 2013 at 11:01 am

    WUWT says “From the “more proof Walmart is evil” department…”

    …Our tremendous infrastructure and fossil fuel-based trucking and shipping not only give purchasing parity to those who would not otherwise have it, it allows flexible and powerful responses in local areas when needed.””

    By “Our” are you saying that you work for W-mart?

  141. Zeke says:

    kbc says, “Are you saying that you work for Walmart?”

    No. I have delivered to distribution centers before, more than 15 years ago, but not regularly. Our economic interest in Walmart’s successful model is in maintaining a single income home.

    Education Secretary Arne Duncan is counting on parents both going to work because of rising living expenses as an opportunity to keep schools open all year, 7 days a week, for 14 hours a day, along with a “health care center” and after school activities beyond that. Parents should be aware of the two-income trap, and that there is an alternative to two incomes. A family can do reasonably well mainly through saving money on groceries and gas. Savings of several thousand dollars a year offered by Walmart can keep The Goddess at home.

    The purchasing power of these single income homes is extremely important to the discussion of the real strength of the economy in the US.

  142. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Jeff Alberts on September 23, 2013 at 7:20 am:

    Sorry to have wasted your time, and mine.

    Perhaps you should switch to decaf…

    Jeff, unclench. Think about how much suffering in the world comes from people who decide they will allow themselves to feel insulted by someone else.

    There was nothing personal, and as you can see above, discussion on the subject continued here as others joined in. I don’t know if those commenters followed the discussion from there to here or just continued it from here, but either way it’s happening here instead of at two different posts.

    The only thing on this blog that conclusively shifts a conversation, by my observations, is management shutting down all comments and directing us elsewhere.

    I have found having regular coffee as my primary intaken liquid keeps my mind focused so I don’t dwell on trivial matters. I make a pot then let it cool to room temperature, drink it African-American.

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