Sea Ice News Volume 4 Number 6: Arctic sea ice has most definitely turned the corner – Maslowski is falsified

Plus notes on the ARCUS sea ice forecasting contest

As I pointed out on September 16th in Sea Ice News Volume 4 Number 5: No ice free Arctic this year – it appears that Arctic sea ice has turned the corner sea ice has most definitely turned the corner now.

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source

Details and raw data on this graph product here

From NSIDC, who finally made the call yesterday:

====================================================================

Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for 2013

On September 13, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2013. The minimum ice extent was the sixth lowest* in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. Sea ice extent will now begin its seasonal increase through autumn and winter. Meanwhile, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent reached a record high on September 18, tied with last year’s maximum.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds could still push ice floes together, reducing ice extent further. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the melt season in early October, once monthly data are available for September.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for September 13, 2013 was 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 median extent for that day. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image

On September 13, 2013, sea ice extent dropped to 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles). This appears to have been the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will now climb through autumn and winter. However, a shift in wind patterns or a period of late season melt could still push the ice extent lower. The minimum extent was reached two days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 average minimum date of September 15.

Conditions in context

Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of September 19, 2013, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2013 is shown in blue, 2012 in green, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, and 2008 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray.  Sea Ice Index  data.||Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center|  High-resolution image

Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of September 19, 2013, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2013 is shown in blue, 2012 in green, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, and 2008 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image

This year’s minimum was 1.69 million square kilometers (653,000 square miles) above the record minimum extent in the satellite era, which occurred on September 16, 2012, and 1.12 million square kilometers (432,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average minimum.

Varying distribution of ice in 2013 versus 2012

Figure 3. This image compares differences in ice-covered areas between September 13, 2013, the date of this year’s minimum, and September 16, 2012, the record low minimum extent. Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2013 and 2012, while white and dark gray areas show ice cover unique to 2013 and to 2012, respectively.  Sea Ice Index data. About the data||Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center|High-resolution image

Figure 3. This image compares differences in ice-covered areas between September 13, 2013, the date of this year’s minimum, and September 16, 2012, the record low minimum extent. Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2013 and 2012, while white and dark gray areas show ice cover unique to 2013 and to 2012, respectively. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image

Comparing this year’s minimum extent to 2012, while extent was higher on average this year, there were variations from region to region. There was considerably higher sea ice extent in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian sea regions, with the ice edge several hundred kilometers farther south compared to last year. This year the Canadian Archipelago also retained much more ice, keeping the Northwest Passage closed.  The most notable area of less ice this year compared to last was off the east coast of Greenland, south of Fram Strait. Other small areas of decreased extent were found north of the Kara and Laptev seas.

See an animation of this summer’s sea ice extent produced by the NASA Scientific Visualization Studio at http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?4104.

Previous minimum Arctic sea ice extents**

Table 1.  Previous minimum Arctic sea ice extents
 YEAR MINIMUM ICE EXTENT DATE
IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE KILOMETERS IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE MILES
2007 4.17 1.61 September 18
2008 4.59 1.77 September 20
2009 5.13 1.98 September 13
2010 4.63 1.79 September 21
2011 4.33 1.67 September 11
2012 3.41 1.32 September 16
2013 5.10 1.97 September 13
1979 to 2000 average 6.70 2.59 September 13
1981 to 2010 average 6.22 2.40 September 15

According to near-real-time data, this year’s minimum extent is slightly lower than 2009. However, the ranking between 2009 and 2013 is close, and may change once the final version of the data are processed. See our Frequently Asked Questions: Do your data undergo quality control? for more information about near-real-time data.

** Note that the dates and extents of the minimums have been re-calculated from what we posted in previous years; see our Frequently Asked Questions for more information.

====================================================================

The ARCUS sea ice forecasting contest

WUWT’s ARCUS Arctic sea ice forecast wasn’t far off the mark in June 2013, we actually did better than most with 4.8 million sqkm:

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (June Report) for September 2013 sea ice extent (values are rounded to the tenths).

Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.

I had to laugh at the Met Office forecast. So much for supercomputer driven model skill.

WUWT didn’t participate in July due to scheduling conflicts  with 4th of July holiday I had in making the deadline, but here are the entries:

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (July Report)

Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (July Report) for September 2013 mean sea ice extent (values are rounded to the tenths).

Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.

The gloom and doom forecast of the Met Office didn’t change at 3.4, but it was bested by ultra-gloomer “Neven” at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog who said 3.2 would be the value.

WUWT did participate in August, essentially no change for the averaged top 5 vote.

Since ARCUS didn’t plot them, I’ve plotted all the participant forecasts below.

2013_ARCUS_final_forecast

Figure 5: plot of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Mean forecasts submitted to ARCUS in August 2013.

WUWT’s value is based on a weighted calculation of the top five vote getters in our poll here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/11/sea-ice-news-volume-4-3-2013-sea-ice-forecast-contest/

The most popular value picked by WUWT readers was 5.0 msq/km 8.9% (94 votes), though it wasn’t a runaway vote, hence I opted for a weighted average of the top 5 vote getters.

The Met Office seems to have bowed out, and even at the late date, “Neven” was firmly in the gloom category again with 3.6.

The NCAR model ensemble guess didn’t do much better.

It should be noted that ARCUS has not made the final report yet, and that their forecast contest is based on the NSIDC September extent average, which has yet to be recorded. I’ll report that when it is available. Overall though, I’d say WUWT readers did better than gloomers, modelers, and of course, Wieslaw Maslowski.

Most certainly, even though the counter on the sidebar has not reached the Autumnal equinox indicating the end of summer, clearly Maslowski is falsified for 2013:

BBC – 12 December 2007

Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]

2013_ice_coundown

Maslowski joins NASA’s Jay Zwally in the Hall of Lame:

National Geographic – 12 December 2007

“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”

[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]

And of course, let’s not forget the Sierra Club:

Sierra Club – March 23, 2013

“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”

[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]

beckwith_sierraclub_icefree_2013

Source: http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease

Read more on the ARCUS forecast here: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

And of course, the WUWT sea ice reference page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

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This would be a good time to remember the GRL paper from Tietsch et al in 2011 showing how uncovered and uninsulated arctic creates a strong negative feedback that promotes ice recovery. I think this is in large part responsible for the wild swings in the Arctic sea ice anomaly since 2007, which was at the time a record low for the satellite era. The 2007 low was the initial shock that has been ringing a low-frequency bell ever since, as positive and negative feedbacks compete. (see: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png )
Tietsch et al write:

[23]In our perturbation experiments, we observe how different feedbacks in the Arctic compete to enhance or dampen a strong negative anomaly in sea ice, equivalent to a strong positive anomaly in oceanic heat content. In summer, the oceanic heat anomaly is enhanced by the ice–albedo feedback, but in winter the excess oceanic heat is lost to the atmosphere due to a lack of insulating sea-ice cover. This leads to an anomalously warm atmosphere, which in turn causes increased heat loss by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere and decreased heat gain by atmospheric advection from lower latitudes. A lasting impact of the ice– albedo feedback is not possible because the large-scale heat fluxes quickly adapt to release the excess oceanic heat from the Arctic.
[24] Hence, we find that even dramatic perturbations of summer sea-ice cover in the Arctic are reversible on very short time scales of typically two years. This suggests that a so-called tipping point, which would describe the sudden irreversible loss of Arctic summer sea ice during warming conditions, is unlikely to exist.

(emphasis added)

jai mitchell

In a single picture
this is what is most likely going to happen in the arctic, based on the last 30 years
alternatively, take the first picture above and then average the red, orange and blue lines for the first 1/3 of the 2010’s average and compare it with the dotted grey lines above.
and please understand that the average ice thickness during this period has gone down by 50% since 1980
[No. Future readers are alerted to the first “link” which is to “download attachments” Most readers do NOT want to load other’s files into their PC’s. Mod]

MattN

Antarctic ice very close to 2012s extent….

Karl Maki

One can only hope that Beckwith has spouted his prediction long and loud on campus, and that any students he happens to have academic contact with will see this as a reason to question everything they are being taught.

Why has the countdown stopped? One day to go, not two.
Or is this a dastardly plot to win by stopping the clock for as long as it takes (thousand years or so) to find an ice-free arctic sea?

ferd berple

and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent
=========
if my bank account is going down, and then it goes up, how does this upward amount reinforce the downward trend? only in climate science, where belief conquers all.

Thomas

Might be worth showing the IPCC prediction as well. 10-13b is the one most relevant:
http://ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-10-13.html

RE: UnfrozenCavemanMD says:
September 21, 2013 at 10:44 am
I agree that the open water on the Eurasian side of the Pole will create a strong negative feedback. Among other things, a different dynamic kicks in when sub-zero wind blows over open water. Rather than the ice on the surface acting as starter-crystals, and a sort of top-down cooling occurring, instead the surface water simply sinks and is replaced by rising warmer water, the result being that the water is chilled down to the pycnocline 300-450 feet down. No longer do have a layer of ice with warmer currents moving under it. Also you no longer have summer storms sucking up warmer water from below, for the entire column of water is colder. I think that is why it was colder during the warmest part of the summer up at the pole this year, and also why the summer gales didn’t break up the ice as much.
I also thought the colder water meant the refreeze would start earlier, but I was wrong there. My vote was for a minimum extent of 6 million km2. While casting my vote in Anthony’s poll I must have clicked the wrong link. All of a sudden I was confronted by a lengthy form to fill out. I wondered why Anthony was asking all these questions, but just shrugged and filled out the form. You can imagine my chagrin when I saw my name on the graph. Yes, I’m the Bozo who submitted the prediction of 6 million. But you have to give me this: I beat the heck out of the UK Met Office.
By the way, the North Pole Camera is showing an ice breaker stopped in the distance. WUWT?
See bottom of post at: http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/09/19/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-the-darkness-decends/

Latitude

I missed it…..but was close…..I guessed 5 million

milodonharlani

Beckwith apparently doesn’t know that the Arctic has often been virtually ice free in Holocene summers, as it was during much of the Eemian Interglacial. In both these interglacials, modern humans existed, so he’s as wrong on the anthropology as the climate.

Andrew Harding

We have heard it all before, no doubt there will be much grinding of teeth and the usual non-scientific excuses like “the heat has gone into the oceans”. An apology would be nice, but it will not happen, I think the general public are sick and tired of hearing this b******t, because I certainly am.

ferdberple

and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent
=========
this bit of mathematical nonsense shows the NSIDS statement is political not scientific.
Why do government science agencies feel the need to take a position one way or the other? why do they not simply publish the facts without adding the spin?
Is it because government science agencies are first and foremost political organizations, and only secondarily science organizations?

Stephen Richards

Even with a range of 100% the UK Met of Betts and clowns still couldn’t get near it.

This is of no surprise, and just like they are wrong about arctic sea ice, they will be wrong on global warming.

Alan Robertson

Serious stuff: Adult discussion time
One can find these and similar words all around the web. Original thinking is like a far away planet for those people and they all fancy themselves as astronauts.

Ian W

Is Paul Beckwith related to Harold Camping? The underlying ‘the world is coming to an end’ – ‘change your ways’ – ‘all but a few of the human race will survive’ – ‘on it will come to pass’ etc etc/… And of course the other major point they have in common is being totally wrong. But that doesn’t seem to prevent mindless followers supporting them.
It should be noted that being mindless doesn’t mean lack of academic qualifications..or as Stephen Vizinczey put it: “Strange as it seems, no amount of learning can cure stupidity, and higher education positively fortifies it.
.

g2-50892d938c497c23d5dfc50106495893

sounds like Mr. Mann has lots of ice to use his stick on .
[Check your user_id please. Mod]

Jimbo

You might as well re-set your countdown widget on the top right of the WUWT page to point to our next gloomer: Professor Peter Wadhams. Here is what he has said in the past.

Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
The Scotsman – 29 August 2012
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

Just 2 years to go!

Jimbo

Wadhams has also said:
Guardian – 17 September 2012
This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

Jimbo

Wadhams has also said:

Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

wayne

This is an update chart now that September 15th has past by. This same chart was included in one of Anthony’s SeaIce articles about the same date last year.
Don’t know what caused me to create this chart, just a question in my mind, but i thought other’s might find this statistical curiosity, well… curious, since it gives a different view to what the says from the Arctic, in reverse being a look at the water, not ice.
Remember, this is showing the daily mean of OPEN Arctic Ocean area, not ice extent, and this is an anomaly (differences) from the mean, daily, then averaged for the year.
http://i39.tinypic.com/2nuhfnp.png
One, I found it curious how this chart forms segments of rather straight lines. And I do remember why I started this, even though 2012 had a huge storm right at the end of the melt season last year most of the time into late spring showed a high amount of ice on a daily basis… I wondered what if you took every day into account.
If you see any mistakes, let me know. Don’t know if the logic of winters holds true and don’t put any weight on the polynomial fit, no predictive power there, just to show the general smooth curve.

sunderlandsteve

Looks like the met office just looked at last years minimum extent and took a bit off, assuming/believing that it just had to be less.

Greg Goodman

” and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. ”
Jeez, what would have to have happened to _not_ reinforce it in their minds. Anything short of an instant return 1979 ice coverage, I guess.

Jimbo

Beckwith didn’t get the memo.

Abstract
We therefore conclude that for a priod in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer. This may serve as an analogue to the predicted “greenhouse situation” expected to appear within our century.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFMPP11A0203F
Abstract
Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice, and calls for further research on causal links between Arctic climate and sea ice.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003185

Greg Goodman

A one year data point cannot reinforce or disprove a “long-term downward trend “. The statement is meaningless , yet tries to give the impression it is saying something.
If it “confirmed” anything it confirmed the current rate of ice loss is about half what it was between 1997 and 2007.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/16/inter-decadal-variation-in-northern-hemisphere-sea-ice/

Peter Miller

Now we have to wait for the official alarmist comments of either: i) this is exactly what the models had been forecasting, or ii) “extremely unusual conditions prevailed in the Arctic this summer and so this is no more than an aberration…..”

John Peter

So will Professor Peter Wadhams receive his P45 (dismissal notice) in September 2015 if his prediction fails (as it almost certainly will)? Fat chance that. They can clearly say what they like and stay in position. Maybe he will even get a bonus as a reward for failure.

JimS

Viking artifacts have been found on Baffin and Ellesmere Islands. In fact, the artifacts on Baffin Island suggest a small settlement with a trading post. This begs the question as to how extensive was Arctic sea ice 1,000 years ago during the Medieval Warming Period, not to mention the overall temperature for the area.

Interestingly they talk about the global temperature but never seem to mention global sea ice that is now about the same as it was in 1990.

To me, the most relevant thing here is that the 2013 line is within the 2sd area. This means “move along, nothing to see here”. We’re back to normal.

Pamela Gray

Peter gives the epitome of head meeting nail.

Claude Harvey

Could the bias, hopes and intent to mislead the public be any more obvious to even the most casual observer than that reflected in NSIDC’s tortured announcement of the 2013 Arctic sea ice summer minimum extent?

Daryl M

It’s great news that arctic ice has turned the corner for 2013, as well, that the low was 5.1M. However, it’s not a time for gloating, as the result could easily have been very different. The two graphs that I’ve been watching this melt season are ice thickness and ice drift. Considering how little multi-year ice there is and the high drift rates that have observed this season, had the prevailing winds and/or ocean currents not been so favourable, a lot of that thin loose ice could have been swept out to warmer seas where it would have melted, rather than circulated around the polar region where a lot it thankfully remained intact. I hope it freezes with a vengeance and we go into the next melting season with a more solid ice pack than we started this season with.

Jimbo

JimS says:
September 21, 2013 at 11:52 am
Viking artifacts have been found on Baffin and Ellesmere Islands. In fact, the artifacts on Baffin Island suggest a small settlement with a trading post. This begs the question as to how extensive was Arctic sea ice 1,000 years ago during the Medieval Warming Period, not to mention the overall temperature for the area.

It may have looked like this work from Lamb in 1965.
H.H. Lamb1965
The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel

The Arctic pack ice was so much less extensive than in recent times that appearances of drift ice near Iceland and Greenland south of 70[deg] N, were apparently rare in the 10th century and unknown between 1020 and 1194, when a rapid increase of frequency caused a permanent change of shipping routes. Brooks suggested that the Arctic Ocean became ice-free in the summers of this epoch, as in the Climatic Optimum; but it seems more probable that there was some ‘permanent’ ice, limited to areas north of 80[deg] N….”
Elsevier Publishing Company
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 1:1965, p. 15-16

The Arctic Warm Periods I’m aware of since then is the 15th century Arctic warming and the 1920s to the 1940s Warm Period.

Abstract
E. Crespin1, H. Goosse1, T. Fichefet1, and M. E. Mann
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation
… Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system,….
doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009

Greg Goodman

quotes from Jimbo:
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
The Scotsman – 29 August 2012
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
This same Professor Peter Wadhams from the illustrious Cambridge University wants us to let him play God with global climate “engineering” – aka tinkering with something you don’t understand.
Since Prof Wadhams is far left field on the outrageous predictions scale and has an unbelievably poor grasp on what is happening, I think he has made it clear to all that he [is] last person on Earth to be trusted with messing about with climate.
He hopes to at the forefront of the God-Complex Team, yet does a great job showing everyone why this must never happen.

Daryl M

Greg Goodman says:
September 21, 2013 at 11:39 am
” and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. ”
Jeez, what would have to have happened to _not_ reinforce it in their minds. Anything short of an instant return 1979 ice coverage, I guess.
Not to defend the NSIDC (because I’m not a alarmist / warmist), but If you look at the long-term trend line, the extent for this year is right on the line. I believe that is what is meant by “reinforces the long-term downward trend”, and like it or not, it is a “reasonable” statement. Had the extent been higher by enough that it was above the trend line, or even better, above the variation along the trend, they would not have been able to make that claim.

mogamboguru

To quote the NSIDC: “The minimum ice extent was the sixth lowest* in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent.”
Umm – sure. And 2014 will be the seventh lowest, and 2015 will be the eighth lowest, and and 2016 will be the ninth lowest in the satellite record, and will further reinforce the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent aso, aso, aso…
The quote of the NSIDC could be funny if it wasn’t so utterly ridiculous.

Jimbo

It must be something in the water. Here is a Letter to Nature published in 1993.

Absence of evidence for greenhouse warming over the Arctic Ocean in the past 40 years
ATMOSPHERIC general circulation models predict enhanced greenhouse warming at high latitudes1 owing to positive feedbacks between air temperature, ice extent and surface albedo2–4. Previous analyses of Arctic temperature trends have been restricted to land-based measurements on the periphery of the Arctic Ocean5,6. Here we present temperatures measured in the lower troposphere over the Arctic Ocean during the period 1950–90. We have analysed more than 27,000 temperature profiles, measured by radiosonde at Russian drifting ice stations and by dropsonde from US ‘Ptarmigan’ weather reconnaissance aircraft, for trends as a function of season and altitude. Most of the trends are not statistically significant. In particular, we do not observe the large surface warming trends predicted by models; indeed, we detect significant surface cooling trends over the western Arctic Ocean during winter and autumn. This discrepancy suggests that present climate models do not adequately incorporate the physical processes that affect the polar regions.
Nature 361, 335 – 337 (28 January 1993); doi:10.1038/361335a0

Some of us have noted that 2013 has shown record cold north of the 80th paralel going back to 1958. It does make you wonder about air temperature and thermometers in airports around the Arctic.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Claude Harvey

Whatever happened to that “green” fleet of sailboats caught in the North-West Passage this summer and reportedly awaiting rescue? I suggest naming that shivering band of adventurers, “The Wadhams Expedition”.

Marcos

why do all current sea ice graphs start at 1979 when the 1990 IPCC report showed a NOAA sea ice chart going back to 1973 (when the anomaly was almost -1 million sq km)?

M Courtney

Let’s not get carried away here.
The long-term trend in Arctic Ice is till, most definitely, down.
Personally, I don’t think that means a thing… but it will not surprise me if the Arctic is ice-free in my lifetime.

It is worth noting that the date of the end of the seasons melt, and beginning of the cold season expansion continues to change very little if at all. See, see the discussion at
Temporal Trends In Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Maximum and Minimum Areal Extents. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/09/09/temporal-trends-in-arctic-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-and-minimum-areal-extents/
The reason this is important is that the added CO2 and other greenhouse gases does not yet (if it ever does) alter the dominance of the seasonal solar cooling with respect to when the sea ice recommences to freeze.

Jimbo

The IPCC had an Arctic sea ice anomaly graph in its 1990 report. It showed 1974 lower than the years between 1979 to 1990. Since then I don’t think this graph has appeared in any of their other reports since.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/15/ignoring-inconvenient-arctic-data/
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf

Pamela Gray

Roger, always able to zero in on the meat of the matter. If you’re married, do you have a brother?

Alan Robertson

M Courtney says:
September 21, 2013 at 12:39 pm
Let’s not get carried away here.
The long-term trend in Arctic Ice is till, most definitely, down.
Personally, I don’t think that means a thing… but it will not surprise me if the Arctic is ice-free in my lifetime.
_________________________
Really? All 5+ million square kilometers, gone?
Did you also point at the low- ice result of ‘the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012″ as being a significant indicator of sea ice loss?
How long is your lifetime? Have any more meaningless and unverifiable statements?

Gunga Din

They predict this cr*p. People get worked up. It doesn’t happen. All people remember is that they are worked up. Keep chipping away to take the shine off the sh*t. The sheepeople aren’t stupid. Just uninformed.

Jimbo

Ultra alarmist V alarmist – Professor Peter Wadhams V Professor Julia Slingo
Here is Wadhams who appears to be defending his 2015 projection in the UK parliament.

…..In response to questions from the Chair, Prof. Slingo ruled out an ice-free summer by as early as 2015. Furthermore, Prof. Slingo rejected data which shows a decline in Arctic sea ice volume of 75% and also rejected the possibility that further decreases may cause an immediate collapse of ice cover…..
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/04/supplementary-evidence-by-prof-peter.html

Anything is possible

” and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. ”
The Earth is 4.5bn years old.
The current interglacial has lasted 12,000 years
They have 34 years worth of data.
How the [self snip] do you determine long-term trends from 34 years worth of data?

Espen

The 2012-2013 gain is roughly half of the difference between 2013 and the 1979-2000 average. I don’t really want to hope for colder weather, but wouldn’t it be fun if the 2014 gain would be equal to the 2013 gain? Also notable is that the gain is close to the whole 2009-2012 loss.