A short comment by Nils-Axel Mörner
UPDATE: See the follow up post here: The Most Important Sea Level Graph
This is the sea level graph (from Kwajalein) recently being circulated and claimed to show an alarming acceleration of a proposed general sea level rise.
Yes, this curve rises fairly rapidly from 1990 to 2012. But for what reason and with what regional message?
This is a sea level graph (from Majuro) and is shows a general sea level stability from 1992 to 2010.
No traces of any acceleration!
(Note from Anthony: see more on Majuro here: http://www.gloss-sealevel.org/publications/documents/pacificcountryreport_mi.pdf )
It looks like Kwajalein is affected by a local subsidence induced by building construction (or some sea level “correction” in order to have it going up).
The Majuro records, for sure, contradicts and acceleration claim; even a general “rise”.
In conclusion, don’t “hang your hat” on the Kwajalein graph. Look around and observe!
A rising tide doe not lift all boats after all.
Subsidence in places like New Orleans and Venice has been attributed to pumping out fresh water. How much have these islanders been pumping relative to the size of their freshwater lens?
So,another “figures don’t lie but liars figure”?
And what exactly explains the 0.22 metre changes in a single year?
For answers refer to the wonderful work of Bob Tisdale. Rule out winds before ruling in subsidence.
These aren’t the rise you’re looking for.
move along.
🙂
Are there hills on the ocean’s surface that are getting higher?
When the land level drops, does the sea level rise there relative to everywhere else?
I suspect some alarmists will answer “yes” to both questions.
Kwajalein was the home for many years of a sizable contingent of workers from Lincoln Labs and perhaps other denizens of the military-industrial complex. They were working on ABMs and occasionally, I think, (probably classified), there was a shoot targeted near Kwajalein with an attempt to bring down the missile. There were schools, libraries, etc built, no doubt wells dug, etc. So depending on how the sea-level rise was measured, perhaps it is more of a ground-level subsidence due to extensive building.
New Orleans and Venice were both built on deltas. Both are subsiding due to sediment compaction and crustal loading. Isostatic balance and rate of compaction will determine their future. Unless Kwajalein has artesian wells, the water gradient is normal hydrostatic and not supporting the overburden. Pumping out the water will have no effect on the surface elevation.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch5s5-5-2-5.html
JohnWho says:
July 31, 2013 at 1:53 pm
Are there hills on the ocean’s surface that are getting higher?
===
yes, some places have had a positive anomaly since day one…
according to that, the tropical indo-pacific is now almost 2 feet higher than the rest of the ocean….
Disney is in negotiations to buy it and make it a water park…………
If that doesn’t work out, they are buying that deep valley off Maine….
LOL
It looks like another data revision effort is about to begin–on anything that contradicts.
I am not an expert in these matters, but this site for NOAA data only goes up to 2001. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/station_info.shtml?stn=1820000+Kwajalein,+Marshall+Islands
Hank Johnson (D) Ga. wants to know if any Marines have been moved to Kwajalein from Guam!
“This is a sea level graph (from Majuro) and i(t) shows a general sea level stability from 1992 to 2010.”
Extend the graph to 2013 and it shows a clear upward trend:
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.monthly.plots/1838_high.png
Oooooh!
Some of ‘our’ ships [we manage them – they’re expensive; we don’t own them!] are registered in Majuro, MI.
If Majuro sinks, will they be able to carry more cargo – or less – before their load line is submerged?
Auto
You should compare Kwajalein to the POPOVA (BELYI OSTROV) station at the tip of the Yamal Peninsula because sea level, tree rings and temperature change should all correlate.
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.monthly.plots/653_high.png
Lance Wallace @ur momisugly July 31, 2013 at 1:59 pm ”
Kwaj has a long history of missile support including tracking downrange radars for launches from Vandenberg and has had many gov contractors from RCA, Pan Am. Lincoln Lab folks likely did the software work on the telemetry (as in C-band radars). They monitored the MIRVs and things as the down range site for the West Coast. It was the West Coast equivalent to what is now the East Coast’s 45th Space Wing (as in Cape Canaveral). For what it’s doing today, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_Test_Site
If you note the time line, the “rise” corresponds to the Navy and Air Force development. It likely is “just like the Maldives” as described in a recent article (on this site if I recall correctly). It’s more believable Kwaj is sinking by US Government work than the Pacific Ocean deciding to selectively rising around the Marshalls.
Maybe it’s that missing heat expanding the water around the Marshalls?
Kwajalein is a seamount atoll. An atoll formed on top of an extinct volcano. You can think of the volcano as a big pile of rubble that settles over time, lowering the surface of the atoll.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seamount
Roger Andrews (July 31, 2013 at 2:31 pm) “Extend the graph to 2013 and it shows a clear upward trend”
Just like this graph shows a clear downward trend over that same short interval: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ts.gif
Kwajalein Atoll is also the terminal point of a US missile test range. I imagine that there is a lot of construction there.
I salute Nils-Axel Mörner one of the many great scientist fighting Global stupidity.
Scepticism alarm bells should ring loudly on anyone who sees an accelerated sea level rise in one location alone. How anyone could point to that and think and say “global warming” is truely beyond me.
The US military and civilians on the island of Kwajalein use stored rainwater as their water source. The island is pretty well built up, I doubt there has been much additional construction this century. If there is an explanation for the sea level change it is probably due to a shift in the prevailing winds. Another possibility is that the local currents have been disrupted when the Marshallese on the neighboring island of Ebeye filled in the shalllows in the process of connecting two smaller islands to Ebeye.
And what exactly explains the 0.22 metre changes in a single year?
Earthquakes and Tectonic movement.
If too many people rush over there to measure and speculate , the island could be in danger of tipping over. HA!