Coldest Spring In England Since 1891

By Paul Homewood

Originally, it was thought to be the coldest spring since 1962.

Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britain's coldest spring since 1962

Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britain’s coldest spring since 1962

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2333312/UK-weather-Spring-coldest-50-years-average-temperature-just-6C.html

According to the Central England Temperature Series, England has just experienced its coldest Spring since 1891. The average mean temperature of 6.87C ranks the 31st coldest on records starting in 1659, and is 2 degrees lower than the 1981-2010 average of 8.9C.

image

The 5-Year average has dropped to 8.9C, a level commonly seen in the 1940’s and 50’s. Although the cold Spring has been due in large part to the exceptionally cold weather in March, which was the coldest since 1892, both April and May have also been much colder than normal.

CET Warmer/(Colder) v 1981-2010
March 2013 2.7 (3.9)
April 2013 7.5 (1.0)
May 2013 10.4 (1.3)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

The 12-Month running average continues to drop, and at 8.9C is well below the levels seen for the last decade, and 1.0C lower than the 1981-2010 annual average.

image

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98 thoughts on “Coldest Spring In England Since 1891

  1. And the cold weather is fully consistent with and caused by…wait for it….wait for it….

  2. Paul, you are toooooo quick. The Met Off hasn’t had time to adjust the figures up.

  3. the 31st coldest on records starting in 1659

    which goes to demonstrate just how much colder it could get after I’ve adjusted my model.

  4. We need to start planting Icelandic species in our garden. Our children won’t know what a heatwave is. I sense desperation amongst the natives – here in Castlefield, Manchester, the beer patios have been rammed all weekend – at 17C 63F

  5. Hmmmm
    Cooler.
    I’ve noticed. I’ve been there.
    What easy measures are there to insulate your (my) house?

    Cooler? And Cooling??

    Whoosh . . .

  6. So the nights must have been exceptionally cold, as well as the days being pretty cold. Because using CET max 2013 March-May was only the 7th coldest in the record starting in 1878 (while March was _the_ coldest):

    MAM year
    10.10 1879
    10.27 1887
    10.30 1891
    10.33 1888
    10.70 1951
    10.73 1962
    10.80 2013

    I thought that a feature of AGW was that one wasn’t supposed to get cold nights?

    Richard.

  7. Never mind the spring, what about the summer??

    I have worn a scarf to work every day this year, except for today – and then I regretted not doing so. Its 8 degrees outside now, on the east coast of Anglia.

    .

  8. And guess what the Met Office forecast?
    ====

    rotfl…..they gave it a 50/50

    They can’t lose with that one!

  9. Paul Homewood says:
    June 2, 2013 at 1:20 pm

    They continue to just flounder around like a fish out of water. They constantly embarrass themselves over ‘projections’ or ‘predictions’, regional or otherwise.

    I translate their ‘predicion’ – there’s a 40% chance it will be above or below normal and a 60% chance it will be normal. To err is human, you need a supercomputer to really foul up.

  10. I should point out that provisional figures suggest that, for the UK as a whole, this Spring will have been the coldest since 1962, as Scotland has not been quite as cold as England (relatively speaking).

  11. No worry’s a little prolong cold winter never hurt anyone. Unless you living in fuel poverty!!!

  12. Where would it have ranked without ‘global warming’? And what justification could the Met Office have for such extraordinary cold?

  13. @ Latitude…

    They didn’t give it a 50:50 shot, they gave cooler and warmer each the same 15-20% chance, with the balance falling in between, ie ‘average’. That means they predicted a cooler than average spring was 15-20% likely, leaving an average or warmer spring at a combined 80-85% likelihood.

    The MO therefore rated a cooler than average spring as essentially only a 1:5 against shot. They were plainly wrong. Can you imagine if they called the great global warming scandal along similar lines of accuracy? Oh, wait….

  14. Paul Homewood says:
    June 2, 2013 at 1:20 pm

    And guess what the Met Office forecast?
    —————————————————–
    Perhaps they should stick to hindcasting. If they get really good at that, then they may be able to build a model that can accurately predict the last 24 hours of weather. Wouldn’t that be useful!!!

  15. The 1962 idea come’s from the UK temperature series – Which only goes back to 1910.

    The Central England Temperature series goes back to 1659 and is the oldest, detailed weather record anywhere in the world.

    There’s some very interesting data that I’ve seen recently that suggests quite a big connection between severely cold springs and the following summer/winter in the UK.

    I’ll have a video on it next Sunday. Could be quite interesting.

  16. Waiting for the Met office and the other climatologists to chime in….the folks who put the CON in consensus…..

    I wish they would learn, but as long as they have (our) money to burn….

    Kind of interesting that these previous records are on approximately 60-year cycles. I imagine the
    OLD Farmers Almanac has it pegged…

    Just hope and pray all this global warming stops for a while here in Germany….it’s getting pretty difficult in some places…again “hundred-year floods” are being mentioned (maybe 120?)….

  17. Since 2008 I’ve been telling everyone that I noted the Jetstream pattern change around 2000 whereby the previous period of warming accompanied by more poleward / zonal jets was replaced by more equatorward / meridional jets and that therefore the late 20th century temperature trend had gone into reverse.

    Was I wrong?

    The only change that correlates with that timing is the decline of solar activity from active cycle 23 to inactive cycle 24.

    CO2 is completely out of the ball park since it continued to rise throughout.

  18. And people, let us not forget the Met Office’s Vicky Pope back in 2004. Oh this is classic…

  19. I don’t need to tell any Brits reading this that fuel prices have soared as temperatures have plunged. Here it is in graphical form

    Tonyb

  20. A comment from Vicky Pope would be interesting in light of her panic driven nonsense linked to above by The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley.

    She even asserts that loss of Arctic sea ice leads to more sunlight entering the water for a warming effect.

    More recently it has at last been acknowledged that loss of Arctic ice leads to more loss of energy from the Arctic Ocean to the air.

    Will she admit total incompetence?

  21. The comments on the Daily Mail article include this classic. It is so stupid that it’s hard to believe it isn’t a hoax.

    ‘As others have pointed out, it is the global temperature that is increasing, not necessarilly an increase in all areas but overall an increase. Another product of climate change is unpredictable weather which has been on a massive increase lately with more frequent tornados, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. I am still amazed that so many people are still claiming climate change is a hoax when most scientists say it is a reality. A lot of scientists who were originally sceptical are now starting to believe in it. A recent report found that 97% of scientific research done on man made climate change over the years pointed to it being real. Despite all the scientific evidence and science community consensus a lot of people are still sceptical. If people have concerns then fair enough but I hope they have researched this properly and aren’t just getting their information from the papers, especially the tabloids.’
    – Paul_J , Liverpool, United Kingdom, 01/6/2013 23:46

  22. Sure, you complain it’s cold now. But come August when that British-style 17.5°C heat wave hits and the jumpers come off, you’ll be missing the cold.

    BTW, when it was pointed out previously that Britain must have been warmer in the past since the visiting Romans raised grapes for wine, it was said they’re raising grapes now so that can’t be right, except of course that would be with more modern varieties created over centuries of cross-breeding and careful cultivation that likely do better in colder climates.

    How are the grapes doing this year?

  23. Similar situation here in Switzerland –

    Meteosuisse reports that this Spring had the lowest solar insolation in cities across the country to the North of the Alps (Basel, Zurich and St. Gallen) ever since the homogeneous data series began in 1959.

    http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/fr/climat/climat_aujourdhui/retrospective_saisonniere/Bulletin_climatologique_printemps_2013.html

    Across the country, the average temperatures for the 3 mo. period from March through May was between 0.7 and 1.8 degrees Celsius below the 30 y norm (1981-2010). This was the coldest Spring since 1987. We got lots of snow in the mountains last month. There is still plenty of snowpack above 2000m, which is raising the chance for snowslides on the passes and causing rivers to overflow their banks further downstream.

    Kurt in Switzerland

  24. goldminor says:
    June 2, 2013 at 1:58 pm
    Perhaps they should stick to hindcasting. If they get really good at that, then they may be able to build a model that can accurately predict the last 24 hours of weather. Wouldn’t that be useful!!!
    ================
    Odds are that predicting today’s weather tomorrow is more accurate than the Met Office forecast. The entire Met Office can be replaced by looking at the past. If it has rained 10% of the time on say June 5 1900 thru 2012, then there is a 10% chance of rain this June 5, 2013. If it has been sunny 60% of the time, there is a 60% chance of sun this June 5, 2013.

    Where the Met Office went off the rails was to assume that climate change meant “warming”, so they built warming into their forecasts, which skewed the results. Now we know that climate change means both warming and cooling, more snow and less snow, more rain and less rain, we can pretty much forecast anything and be right, more or less.

  25. We have had to modify our crop growing for some years now in Wales in the light of colder summers so this is not news as such, but the key is, don’t panic, just adapt to cold weather crops and get used to parsnips, Cabbages, peas and beans and look up old recipes.

  26. I’m still waiting for this projected rise in temps so I can see my MetO approved Mediterranean plants flourish.

  27. I’m still awaiting new research that will link this to arctic sea ice loss and increasing methane levels, come on there must be a correlation there somewhere.

  28. Gareth Phillips says:
    June 2, 2013 at 2:59 pm

    Leeks!

    Symbol of Wales since the Dark Ages Cold Period.

  29. cheshirered says:
    June 2, 2013 at 1:55 pm
    ====
    LOL…yes they did
    They gave it even odds across the board…..

  30. Hey, Vicky!

    The Holocene Climate Optimum lasted thousands of years. The Arctic warmed by up to 4 °C (one study found winter warming of 3 to 9 °C and summer of 2 to 6 °C in northern central Siberia), yet the Greenland Ice Sheet didn’t melt away.

  31. See – owe to Rich says: June 2, 2013 at 1:29 pm
    …I thought that a feature of AGW was that one wasn’t supposed to get cold nights?
    Richard.

    No, that’s Urban Heat Island effect. Cold nights are due to a temporary reduction of TSI when the sun goes down.

    It’s a common misconception.

  32. It’s not just England.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10094497/June-opening-for-French-ski-resort-as-temperatures-plummet-in-Europe.html

    “The Pyrenees resort of Porte Puymorens reopened this weekend as plummeting temperatures and rain played havoc with weather across Europe. …………..Slopes were originally shut at the end of the official season in April, but after the coldest spring in France for more than 25 years snow which should have melted weeks ago is still in place.

  33. Ms Pope’s prior certainty, combined with her (presumably) continuing employment, tend to confirm Shaw’s observation with regard to the Professions, and their relationship to the laity :)

  34. Although the cold Spring has been due in large part to the exceptionally cold weather in March, which was the coldest since 1892

    However globally, the situation for March was very different. Here are the ranks for March on six different data sets. The data sets are: UAH, RSS, HadCRUT4, HadCRUT3, Hadsst2 and GISS. The ranks, based on the assumption that the March anomaly would be the case for the whole year: 9th, 10th, 12th, 12th, 12th and 9th.

  35. Some great stuff from the Met Office blog back in 12 November, 2012.

    ………..However, it’s not useful for most other people as it doesn’t give one forecast for what’s ahead – rather it outlines potential scenarios and their associated probabilities…….

    Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and we expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year – but it’s too early to say exactly what temperatures we can expect or where and when we might see snow.

    http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/11/12/whats-in-store-this-winter-responding-to-the-headlines/

  36. If we can’t get this latest solar cycle named after Eddy, Britain being an example of the ongoing Minimum, might I suggest:”latest weather gore” or some such???

  37. Winter will soon be a is just a thing of the past. Children won’t know what Winter is.
    Express – 8 February 2008
    Winter has gone for ever and we should officially bring spring forward instead, one of the country’s most respected gardeners said yesterday……”There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
    [Dr Nigel Taylor - botanist ]

    Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.
    Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”

  38. “Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and we expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year…” MetOfficeNews

    An amazingly intrepid prediction! What profound sagacity! What intellectual brilliance! What deep cognizance! O brave new world, that has such people…innit?

    /guess what?

  39. Logically if the warmists’ assertions were correct: 1) the planet is warming due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 and 2) warming is a dangerous problem, the fact that the planet is now cooling should be impossible and if the planet is cooling the warmists should be extremely happy as cooling will result in all extreme weather ending.

    Unfortunately for humanity the warmists were in correct on all counts. The greenhouse effect due to atmospheric CO2 saturates. The planet has started to cool and will significantly cool due to the solar cycle 24 slowdown – cooling phase of a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle – and then (not sure what the delay will be before the solar magnetic cycle starts up. Should be time for discussion and appropriate action) we are going to experience a Heinrich event – which is capable of terminating an interglacial period.

    It is assumed as Antarctic sea ice in 2012/2013 is greater than the 1979 to 2008 mean for all months and is greater than any period in the last 30 years, that there is cooling in the Southern hemisphere. Typically when there is a step change in climate there is media interest. To bad they are covering tornadoes 24/7 and waiting for a hurricane.

    The warmists’ hypothesis that melting Antarctic sea ice or melting Antarctic ice sheet ice results in increased fresh water about the Antarctic which in turn results in increased Antarctic sea ice fails as there is an increased in sea ice for all months and the Antarctic ice sheet temperature has not warmed.

    Nice try warmists. You guys need to come up with something creative to explain the cooling. Heat hiding in the ocean was a nice try.

    Comment:
    Warmists: What is the explanation for the cooling of the ocean in the same regions where Svensmark’s mechanism is most active? You guys need to come up with a back up plan if it becomes apparent the entire warmists hypothesis was in correct. Good luck with that. I would find it all very amusing and would take delight in rubbing in the fact that we have wasted billions of dollars on scams due to your mistake, if we were not going to experience a Heinrich event.

    Antarctic Sea Ice, 2013 compared to 2012 and compared to 1979 to 2008 mean

    Arctic temperatures are now cooling, returning to ‘normal’. Arctic sea ice will now ‘recover’, from the perspective of warmists who appear to not understand the consequences of a massive increase in sea ice: crop failures, draughts, increase in severe winter/spring storms and so on that is the result of a colder planet.

    The following is a comparison seasonal temperature variation the Arctic above 80 degrees latitude.
    2013

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Compare to 2012 (click on data at above site by year.)
    Compare to 1986 (click on data at above site by year.)

  40. Our climate is cooling. That has been my long-range climate forecast for years now.

    We are in the transition years between solar-forced global warming and global cooling.

    The jet streams have become more equatorial; though we have had strong polar disturbances in the higher atmosphere last winter, which has allowed penetrating colder air flow that signified the cold Spring that the northern hemisphere has encountered in 2013.

    Stephen Wilde is correct about the jet stream pattern change that took place about 2000-2001. He is right about the previous time where the warming correlated to more poleward-zonal jets to what we are seeing now, and that’s increasingly more equatorward and meridional jet flow.

    It accounts for the powerful southern storms that struck the state of Oklahoma in the U.S., as well as the cold spring in most of North America and Western Europe.

    The exceptionally cold weather in March, April and May 2013 have also been much colder and wetter than normal.

    We will continue to see this kind of climate become more common the closer we can to 2017 and beyond. As of the time being, we have, according to my analysis, about 3-4 years, on the downend of solar-forced global warming as a new climate regime, global cooling, sets itself in place.

    Theodore White, astrometeorologist.sci

  41. How they must rue the internet for reminding them all about their dire predictions like Chief Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery at the tail end of a long General drought in Australia-
    “Even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems.”
    and later trying to ‘elaborate’ after the floods came-
    “As the soil warms up more of the rain that falls evaporates and less goes into the dams and the point that I was trying to make was that even the rain that was falling then previously that was able to fill the dams in future wouldn’t do that.”
    and now Melbourne gets its wettest June day on record-

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/heavy-rain-to-end-autumn-in-melbourne-20130601-2nhwf.html

    which is nothing to write home about since Europeans only settled Melbourne relatively recently compared to the original inhabitants for 30-40000 yrs-

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Melbourne

    People like Flannery will lecture you on the importance of recognising how long aboriginals were here and then get total amnesia about the extremes of weather they would have experienced. That’s the exquisite beauty of an oral tradition eh Tim? How’s the new waterfront digs on the tidal Hawkesbury doing mate?

  42. Of course, as any climate McScientist will happily inform you, Global Warming always happens somewhere else, usually somewhere uninhabited and with no temperature recording equipment.

  43. It’s warming here in Alaska, but only because I put on my winter coat and went out and split wood for the woodstove. Perhaps after all the cold related deaths in England the numbers now add up on the nanny state model? If enough people die we can make this socialism thing work folks…Any volunteers? You there with the glasses.

  44. As I write, in the heart of Central England, there are only 206 shopping days left until Christmas.

    Perhaps it is a good time to think about buying loved ones a sack of coal as a Christmas gift, with special emphasis on the elderly. Politicians and activists seem hell bent on denying them other cheap sources of heating and electricity.

  45. Was the Met Office ever reliable.. England is cold, and if Durham is cold it must be colder in Scotland and the Hebrides. Live with it. Since air conditioning and central heating, Poms are becoming hot house flowers. Several years ago, a friends rellies came in November to Armidale NSW (colder here on the Northern Tablelands). They thought Australia was perennially hot and unfortunately it bleedin’ rained most of the time! Temps dropped as well. I returned from Cyprus in Feb 1963, it was one of the worst winters they had had since 1947. The Thames froze over at Windsor. Moving to Lincolnshire, I did not get out of my Sheepskin coat all summer, while climatising. When my baby was born, the months following the temps dropped to 28 deg.F inside. (No central heating and with a night time burning fire too- coal of course). Jack Frost patterns on the inside of the windows. So – remember those terrible snow drifts in Scotland and people getting stock and food dropped to them. Then the next summer we had water restrictions because it did not rain, just on hosing lawns and cars. Moved to Sydney, in November 1965, and quess what, water restrictions there too. If anything, expect colder temps and enjoy the warmth when it comes, and adapt accordingly.

  46. “Originally, it was thought to be the coldest spring since 1962.”

    If it was the coldest spring since 1891, by definition it was also the coldest spring since 1962. Maybe your first sentence should have read “……..coldest spring ONLY since 1962.”

  47. This direct evidence goes again Svalgaard who has been saying repeatedly that the temperature record of 100 years ago is not matching the solar record.

    The CET record is but one area of the planet, but that area’s temperature records go back 100’s of years. When comparing temperature records to solar output the Northern hemisphere receives the greater change in regard to temperature from solar forcing. Changes to the atmosphere that influence the AO and jet stream being the important players.

  48. In the June 2013 issue of the Dutch popular magazine “Zenit”, Rob van Dorland writes that the increase of sea ice near Antarctica is due to global warming.
    You should know that van Dorland is a member of the IPCC. So what he writes is not surprising. You should not ask the Pope whether God exists: we know his answer in advance.
    I presume that, if instead the antarctic sea ice were *decreasing*, van Dorland would see that as a proof of global warming, too.

  49. This year has been very cold accross much of Europe.

    Just last night, I was speaking to someone where I am in Southern Spain and he said that it has been the coldest start to the year for about 200 years here in Spain. I do not know whether that is accurate but I do know that temperatures are about 2 months behind the ‘norm’ The nights are really quite cold notwithstanding all that increased back radiation from increased CO2 which should serve to keep night time temperatures up.

    Unfortunately, the Uk government has not appreciated that climate is regional not global and the regional trend appears downwards given that CET has shown a drop of about 0.5degC this century (ie., more than half of the last century warming0 and winter temperatures have shown a drop of nealrly 1.5degC since 2000. Now I do not know whether that trend will continue but the UK government would be well advised to reflect upon the implications of such trend continuing for the next years (may be 10 to 20) and the implications of that for required preparation for harsh winters (keeping roads and airports open, and public transport working) and on the energy consumption.

    No matter how much spin and how loud the warmists may shout, the harsh realities speak volumes as people perish and adequate heating becomes a luxury that fewer and fewer people will be able to afford due to increasinly high energy costs. Just throw some blackouts/rolling brownouts into the mix because of over reliance upon unrealiable wind, and the general public will be baying wanting to hold those responsible for the mess responsible for their actions.

  50. @ milodonharlani says:
    June 2, 2013 at 3:11 pm
    Gareth Phillips says:
    June 2, 2013 at 2:59 pm

    Leeks!

    Symbol of Wales since the Dark Ages Cold Period.

    Garethman, Good point, everything is about a month behind so I’m still sowing Spring crops, four rows of leeks sown this morning ( You can never have to many Leeks in the garden ) and on the advice of a great supporter of the consensus on climate change I have bought a large polytunnel which I’m hoping will once again allow me to grow exotic crops such as Corn and Tomatoes. Incidentally most supporters of the Skeptical Science view fully acknowledge it will get colder and wetter in many areas.

  51. It is interesting that the current observed cooling and wet weather is in the same regions that experienced the Little Ice age. (See below for a preview of what to expect next. It appears the 21st cooling will be more abrupt as the current change in the solar magnetic cycle was from a series of very, very active solar magnetic cycles abruptly to a special type of Maunder minimum.) The same regions of the planet that warmed in the 20th century are the same regions of the planet that warmed during the Medieval Warm period.

    It appears the warmists have selective amnesia concerning the paleo climatic record. There are cycles of warming followed by cooling in the paleo record. For example, the Medieval Warm period was followed by the Little Ice age. There are nine (9) cyclic warming and cooling periods during the current interglacial period (the Holocene) and there are a further 14 more warming and cooling periods in the glacial period. (23 in total that can be tracked and the warming and cooling periods correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes.)

    The warmists probably should have a plan B if it appears, events on the ground (significant worldwide cooling) proves their entire hypothesis was incorrect. There will still be climate change; unfortunately it will be the cooling kind. The media and the warmists need to avoid confusion when communicating to the public and noted we have changed from warming climate change to cooling climate change.

    The following is the type of problem that we want to avoid.
    “Historian Wolfgang Behringer has linked intensive witch-hunting episodes in Europe to agricultural failures during the Little Ice Age.[36]”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

    “Little Ice Age”
    “The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climate Optimum).[1] While it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into the scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939.[2] It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries,[3][4][5] or alternatively, from about 1350 to about 1850,[6] ….”

    “Europe/North America
    The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of Europe and North America. Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century.[19] Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals.[19] The first River Thames frost fair was in 1607 and the last in 1814; changes to the bridges and the addition of an embankment affected the river flow and depth, … ….The population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps caused by fluorosis after the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783.[20] Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops, and people moved away from a grain-based diet.[21] The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished (by the early 15th century), as crops failed and livestock …. …. Hubert Lamb said that in many years, “snowfall was much heavier … ….Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, although this may have been before the LIA proper).[25] According to Elizabeth Ewan and Janay Nugent, “Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10% of the population of each country. In Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively.”[26] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions.

    Violent storms caused serious flooding and loss of life. Some of these resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German and Dutch coasts.[24]

    Antarctic
    Kreutz et al. (1997) compared results from studies of West Antarctic ice cores with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) and suggested a synchronous global Little Ice Age.[46] An ocean sediment core from the eastern Bransfield Basin in the Antarctic Peninsula shows centennial events that the authors link to the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period.[47] The authors note “other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear.”

    Australia
    There is limited evidence about conditions in Australia, though lake records in Victoria suggest that conditions, at least in the south of the state, were wet and/or unusually cool. In the north of the continent, the limited evidence suggests fairly dry conditions, while coral cores from the Great Barrier Reef show similar rainfall as today but with less variability. A study that analyzed isotopes in Great Barrier Reef corals suggested that increased water vapor transport from southern tropical oceans to the poles contributed to the LIA.[53] Borehole reconstructions from Australia suggest that, over the last 500 years, the 17th century was the coldest in that continent,”

  52. Paul Homewood said: “And guess what the Met Office forecast?”

    Reading that link, have they forecast virtually nothing? If you combine the middle 3/5ths of a distribution it will always appear more likely than either the bottom 1/5th or top 1/5th.

  53. Another Gareth

    If they had forecast a colder than normal Spring, the 3/5ths would have been below the climatic average, whereas it was sat right in the centre of it.

  54. I’m starting to wonder how a country that has survived so long could allow itself to be tortured by a government that thinks the world climate( which they cannot effect) is more important than the quality of life of it’s citizens. Are none of the “finest hour” folks still around? People you don’t have to put up with this crap.Throw the bastards out.

  55. Solar Cycles says:
    June 2, 2013 at 3:09 pm
    I’m still awaiting new research that will link this to arctic sea ice loss and increasing methane levels, come on there must be a correlation there somewhere.

    There’s a correlation there, of sorts. March and early April 2007 was wonderfully warm in England, though the summer wasn’t great. In fact, early April was virtually the warmest part of the entire year. March 2012 was also very warm to the point of almost being hot. The summer that followed was virtually non-existent.

    I take it you’re familiar with the subsequent Arctic sea ice minima?

    The weather patterns that contributed to these years of hot early springs and cold summers may have some relation to the promotion of ice loss in the Arctic. If they do, it suggests that this year’s Arctic melt will start slowly and, if England warms up, might continue to retain more ice than for a number of previous years. I think last year’s ice loss will preclude a massive rebound in the September minimum to 1990’s levels, butmay well show quite a recovery on last year’s minimum.

  56. Hold the phone…according to Ms. Pope if the Greenland ice sheet melts that will raise the sea level 7 meters…over a period of 3,000 years. Let’s see now…that averages out to two and a third millimeters per year. But Al Gore, the National Academy of Science “rock star” and Nobel Prize winner strongly implied a 20 foot rise in what…ten years?

    Other estimates for sea level rise for the next 100 years range over .2, .5, .6, 2, 4, 6 or 7 meters. Feels like chartists predicting the stock market but at least they have a very good understanding of the climate epicycles.

    The apocalyptic man-made global warming catastrophists are half right. The science is settled but the climate isn’t.

  57. Re Mike jarosz says:
    June 3, 2013 at 4:30 am

    “Throw the bastards out” .. an replace with whom exaclty? LibDem, Tories and Labour all have the same policy with regards the ridiculous “Climate Change Act”

  58. Knowing the Alps quite well I say It doesn’t take much cooling to have glaciation to set in on a massive scale.

    All it takes are some remnants of snow from last winter to survive a few short, cold summers in the high valleys of the Alps in a row and – voilà.

  59. In a few years children living in Brittan will be amazed when they experience rain.

  60. Since CO2 raises the temperatures, and, unfortunately, plants use CO2, why not remove all plants from England; then they will be warmer!!! If they burn all the vegetation, more CO2 and more heat, the best of both worlds…

    /sarc

  61. Not sure about others, but I seem to be reading a lot of anecdotal information from people that the part of the world they are living in has been very cold this year. UK, Spain, France (snow in Pyrenees in June?). I also travel a lot with my work – quite a few people in the USA have told me it has been very cold in parts of the USA too, and Canada.

    Would it be a worthwhile exercise on WUWT to “crowdsource” all these anecdotes and actually colloate links to the data showing, region by region, whether it is cooler (or warmer than usual). Otherwise, despite all these reports of cold, when the massaged global temperature numbers come out it will apparently still be warming. It would be nice if that were pre-empted.

  62. The minimums of the longer solar cycles are deeper and more severe or colder than the short ones. There are 50- 60 and 110-120 years and even longer climate cycles that emerge from sun/ocean interface. We just came out of the 30 year warm cycle and are now heading into 30 years of colder weather. The 110-120 climate cycles which seem to correlate with periods of low solar sunspot activity last troughed around 1890, 1780, 1670, 1560. and 1450 .These periods could be clearly seen in the graph previously posted by Tony Brown on WUWT web page Significant cooling followed these dates in the past. We are now entering the start of the trough period of this longer 110-120 year climate cycle, like 1880-1910 which tends to be colder than the typical 30 year cool cycle trough. This is the climate pattern that followed a long solar cycle followed by three short but low solar cycles. The year 2015 will also be 200 years since the Dalton Minimum or the end of the 200 year solar cycle which again tends to be deeper and colder than the 60 year or 100-120 year minimums. The December of 2010 , March 2013 and the spring of 2013 are all typical temperatures during the past similar deeper minimums.

    Thus the weather will be getting progressively colder for the next several decades. The 2013/2014 winter will be colder than the last winter and the subsequent winter 2014/2015 may be colder still. The winters will stay cooler for the next several decades.

  63. Too right Stephen Wilde…I have been reading your postings on the Climate Realists site for years and confim your previous posts regarding the jet stream.

  64. Damn coooold..
    We’ve had two weeks of the warmest weather in europe and I live in Northernest most part of Sweden(okay not really but really far up north). Must mean theres been cold overall in europe?

    Although our warmth was exceptional, 29C in the shade on Friday. Wut.

  65. ON a point of order, if you want to discuss CET (which is fine), don’t head up the article with a picture of Teesdale, which is not part of the CET area, but is in fact considerably further north.

    I agree, the two are linked, but it’s unscientific and this site is merciless when warmists do similar things.

  66. Paul Homewood said: “If they had forecast a colder than normal Spring, the 3/5ths would have been below the climatic average, whereas it was sat right in the centre of it.”

    Thank Paul,

    I think I’m misunderstanding the temperature summary, taking “near average” to mean the middle three fifths (obviously more likely than either the highest or lowest fifth) when perhaps it just means the middle fifth. Or maybe it doesn’t relate to the five categories at all.

  67. Robert Wykoff says:
    And the cold weather is fully consistent with and caused by…wait for it….wait for it….
    ——————————–
    Like the kid in class with their hand up “I know. I know. Pick me”……..Climate Disruption. Isn’t it?

  68. In reply to:
    RESnape says:
    June 3, 2013 at 3:04 am
    No matter what the evidence depicts the UK still has a clown, namely Ed Davey (limp wristed Liberal) frothing at the mouth over yet more cuts in Co2 emissions. You know he and his acolytes have lost the argument when they descend into name calling!

    William:
    I concur with your statement. Name calling is the last resort, used when scientific analysis, observation, basic economics (estimate of costs compared to benefits, limitations of deficit spending, and the public’s willingness to accept massive job losses, for no significant benefits), and engineering reality does not support ones position.

    It is difficult to even imagine how global cooling will affect the conversations.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22745578

    Critics fear that the measure (William: The ‘Energy Bill’) will make UK power prices uncompetitive and divert investment from other industries. (William: US electrical power costs are 37% less than Europe, the Energy Bill, will make result in economic collapse, not less competitiveness.) They say the UK should not commit itself to a “green” economy while there is no comprehensive global climate agreement obliging all nations to follow suit.

    William:
    Note basic analysis indicates there is no significant reduction in CO2 emissions from the massive spending on soft green energy: Wind, solar, and biofuel. The only viable option if there was a warming problem, which there is not, is a massive conversion to nuclear power. (See new documentary produced by climate alarmist US news station CNN and converted environmentalists) China is putting two coal fired power plants into service every week; India one per week. The developing world is developing. The UK politicians need to take a trip to India and China. If the EU jumps off the green economic cliff, will the US, China, and India also agree to jump off the same scam cliff? Perhaps the developing world will when Hades freezes over.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/videos/environmentalists-go-pro-nuclear-in-pandoras-promise-trailer-20130430

    The chancellor thinks the UK’s energy future lies with an expansion of power from gas. (William: That clearly is just blinker type thinking. All green thinking politicians should threaten to jump up and down; followed by sever name calling if there is any more of that crazy talk.)

    The speech at a Met Office event in London takes place as 55 organisations from green groups to manufacturing bodies issued a joint statement calling on MPs to vote in favour of the 2030 decarbonisation amendment. (William: Oh dear, is it possible there are some groups that could profit from the green scams?)

    It says: “We represent different parts of society but are united in the belief that the Energy Bill represents a major opportunity to put the UK firmly on track to becoming a world leading low-carbon economy, boost employment (William: The EU has the highest unemployment in its history, with four countries facing bankruptcy. It there another alternative to spending money on green scams?) and show genuine leadership (William: The green leaders are the producers of pandaros’ box, at least they acknowledge engineering and economic reality) in the fight against dangerous climate change.”

    The list of signatories includes SSE electricity, the Royal Society of Arts and Commerce; Dong Energy; Renewable UK; the Carbon Capture and Storage Association; the Solar Trade Association, the Renewable Energy Association; Business in the Community; the Church of Scotland; the National Farmers Union and the TUC.

    An additional 50 organisations have also added their support.
    The organisations believe that fixing a clean electricity target will drive investment in renewable industries that will create jobs and wealth in the UK.

  69. RESnape says:
    June 3, 2013 at 3:04 am

    From your link:

    … In a speech, the Lib Dem minister [Davey] will complain that right-wing newspapers are undermining science for political ends …

    …The speech [by Energy Secretary Davey] at a Met Office event in London takes place as 55 organisations from green groups to manufacturing bodies issued a joint statement calling on MPs to vote in favour of the 2030 decarbonisation amendment.

    I expect the irony of complaining about skeptics ‘undermining science for political ends’ will be lost on Ed Davey as he stands in front of the green groups and other organizations whom the government pays to lobby itself.

  70. Someone commented on skiing in Aviemore a couple weeks ago. Latest I ever skied it (~20 years ago) was late March.

  71. richard verney says:

    June 3, 2013 at 12:15 am

    the British Government has an eye-popping budget deficit – which it is reducing mightily.
    Down in FY 2012-2103 to £120,600,000,000
    From – for FY 2011-2012 – £120,900,000,000
    SEE –
    THREE HUNDRED MILLION POUNDS DOWN!
    [stlll borrowing 120 billion . . . .]

    Each year is about £2,000 per person that they’ve borrowed.
    Which we have to pay back.
    So – no money for mitigation.
    If the cold happens to kill pesky pensioners – bleeding the state [nearly wrote 'white'] dry, then the bleeding heart liberals will accept an unfortunate consequence of their monomaniacal obsession with ‘green’ [watermelon green?!] energy.

    aND
    Mike jarosz says:
    June 3, 2013 at 4:30 am
    I’m starting to wonder how a country that has survived so long could allow itself to be tortured by a government that thinks the world climate( which they cannot effect) is more important than the quality of life of it’s citizens. Are none of the “finest hour” folks still around? People you don’t have to put up with this crap. Throw the bastards out.

    We’d love to – but as the alternatives are Ed – content-free – Milibean and his semi-house-trained Balls of Debts – or the Ineffable Farage, we’re between a rock and a hard place.
    The whole system stinks.
    Selection, Election [in 70% non-marginal seats], re-election – all now largely in the paws of the functionaries . . . .

    Auto

  72. I had my cast iron stove firebox going quite a bit this Spring in the north woods of Wisconsin. It amazes me that anyone wants to limit the use of heating options to save the climate. The discovery of fire was essential to preventing our extinction due to the challenges of climate. My lake was formed by the passing glaciers that also left boulders that are so massive they remain all around our area. It appears the forces of the universe do not wait for man’s proclamations of today.

  73. GavinPartridge says:
    June 2, 2013 at 2:06 pm
    “The 1962 idea come’s from the UK temperature series – Which only goes back to 1910″

    A thought has crossed my mind. Does that UK temperature series recognize that the UK changed from 1922 on, to include only Northern Ireland rather than the whole island of Ireland, along with Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and how, if at all, has this change been taken into account? How do you homogenize such a series, where the geographic coverage changes at some point?

    Her Majesty’s civil servants have not always displayed a clear understanding even of the distinction between Great Britain and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. For many years, and possibly even still today (I’ve not had to fill out a UK Landing Card for some time so I have not examined one recently) the UK Landing card asked for an address in le Royaume-Uni in the French translation on the card, but in Grossbritannien in the German translation on the same card. So an address in Northern Ireland should have been included by a French speaker but omitted by a German speaker!

  74. William Astley is quite correct. (June 3, 2.10 am) However, during the ice age proper, Southern Australia did have more rain and Aborigines lived around Lake Mungo that had lots of lakes and water holes, and also the mainland as it now, was joined to New Guinea and Tasmania, as the sea levels were much lower. Also a point that the rain forests were less prominent. In fact most tree cover was reduced in the higher altitudes. Although little glacial cover all but possibly in parts of Tasmania and in the Snowy mountains. Aboriginal dream time stories, relate to the big wave, (tsunami’s perhaps or when the seas started to encroach the land) a volcanic eruption down south (5,000 years ago approximately) and the dingo never reached Tasmania as around 4,000 years ago it had also separated from the mainland. The Gulf of Carpentaria didn’t exist then either, nor Monsoonal weather patterns up North. It changed the economy of the Aborigines. The sea was closer to land, and up North, more wild birds, fish and shell fish to hunt, etc. Most Aboriginal tribes/clans had seasonal camps then and moved closer to the ocean or estuaries. And what we call the big wet, that still affects the Northern regions.
    If you study ancient history, the Alps did experience a melt, (1970) when a volcanic eruption covered the ice and snow with brown dust, and this encouraged the melt, uncovering the mummified body of the ice-man. Or Ortzi. He was dated to around 3,500 BC., and had remained covered for approximate 5,000 years.

    I also think as posters have mentioned, that Great Britain, also includes the off shore islands and particularly the Hebrides that still have solar nights and days. (I wonder how solar would thrive there).
    O/T It is amazing that Tim Flannery has not turned up to 4 Senate meetings and when the coalition run this country cum September, then he will be the first to be sacked.

  75. Early June on the Northern Tablelands. I am sitting in my study, it is 12 Noon, and I admit my hands are cold, but I am rugged up slightly as we don’t heat our house, we let the sun do that, but I can see my breath in the air, especially after drinking a cup of hot coffee. Amazingly, touch wood, I do suffer from rhinitis, but we rarely get colds or the flu. Possibly because as my mum used to tell me in England, don’t go out of the warmth into the cold without sufficient clothes. My GCE ‘O’ levels were presented by one of the team who scaled Everest, and he spoke about how they didn’t get colds in high cold altitudes, but as soon as they returned home, they did. I don’t know why, but I would assume our immune systems work harder in cold weather. Bit of trivia. But if you live in a hot house, then the outside temps will hit you more than if the temps are kept fairly even so your body can adjust well. During the WWII and into the 1950s we had some awful summers and winters. (My Irish mum blamed the atom bombs). Our long school vacation started in mid-late July and went on to early September. We would sometimes joke, about Indian summers, because during our school break the weather was rainy and cold, and come September the weather was great, after we returned to school.

  76. bushbunny says:
    ————————-
    I enjoyed your posts. Reminded me of our long summer breaks in the North of England (and after school building of bonfires for Guy Fawkes night on Nov. 5th).

    On the colds though – probably not a whole lot of rhinoviruses above 20,000 feet in the Himalayas. That’s one place where the polymerase chain reaction might have a problem finding a genome – unless Yetis get colds ….

    …. (smiley face).

  77. Re Mike jarosz says @ June 3, 2013 at 4:30 am
    “Throw the bastards out”
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Philw(UK) says @ June 3, 2013 at 5:03 am
    .. an replace with whom exaclty? LibDem, Tories and Labour all have the same policy with regards the ridiculous “Climate Change Act”
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    How about UKIP?
    James Delingpole: Nadine Dorries wants to be the first joint Ukip/Conservative candidate: good idea

    At least you have a viable new party, we Yanks are stuck with the Demi-RATS and ReBOOBlicans.

  78. Hi again, well in Oz, we have the Nationals/Liberals coalition gaining immense popularity in my region, New England, after 10 years of Independent Tony Windsor who lost some when he sided with the ALP/Greens in a hung parliament, climate change/carbon tax and NBN (Optic fibre) but we have a preferential 2 PP voting system, and that can affect who is finally elected. Watch what happens on Sept 14th if not before, we think there will be a coalition (Nats/Libs) government installed. And Tim Flannery is first on the chopping block. Ironically, he lives in a cottage on the edge of Hawkesbury River outside Sydney. I was thinking of buying the place years ago, until I found the only easy way to gain access was by boat. Didn’t seem to worry him when he announced sea level rises, eh? But our debt, is amounting to 30,million dollars PER DAY. That’s more than 1 million dollars per day per capita, including children. The ALP/Greens government are not concerned as they feel our country’s assets can cope with the debt. They’ve mortgaged our country and every citizen who lives there, hoping the mining and carbon tax will fill in the black hole. What a bleedin’ laugh, these jokers who can’t do their sums nor have any idea, that Internationally, China is buying up all our water resources and large farms, and probably is one of our biggest creditors. Debt if not managed, manages you!

  79. bbunny;
    Cold has nothing to do with colds, and your math is way off. By a ratio of year/day. The million bucks per capita is annual, not daily.

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