The Atlantic Hurricane season starts today, June 1st, 2013.
While NOAA predicts an active Atlantic Hurricane Season, it is useful to note this other milestone of hurricane drought, a duration not seen since 1900.
As of today, it has been 2777 days or 7.6 years since the US has been hit by a Cat 3 or greater hurricane. The last such hurricane was Wilma on October 24th, 2005. Each day forward will be a new record in this drought period.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. summarizes:
The graph above provides an update to data on the remarkable ongoing US “intense hurricane drought.” When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900.
Dr. Pielke also has some other thoughts related to hurricane Sandy
We live in interesting times.
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great……even if we get one hurricane….we’re going to have to listen to all the hype about how they are increasing
True, but pointing out the drought is a good way to cut across the misinformation.
And the big push to phase out hurricane clips is on the way!
The longer the “drought”, the more likely that we will hear “unprecedented” when a hurricane finally reaches shore.
Headline … Cat [3,4,5] Hurrincane slams US for the first time in X years …. this unprecedented occurrence is more proof that Global Warming is creating more Exteme Weather!!
What is likely from the Alarmists is a new system for describing and classifying hurricanes. Watch for it.
About 15 years or so, we had the remains of a Pacific hurricane come through here in Colorado. It rained about 3 days straight. With our drought here in Colo. Springs, we could certainly use one of those right now (except for the people in the Waldo Canyon burn scar area, who are worried about flooding).
Somebody ought to write a parody about how global warming is killing the hurricane, natures weather regulators. Without hurricanes to redistribute temperatures more regularly, and stir up the oceans to keep currents flowing normally, how can we survive?
Unfortunately, Bayes theorem says that it is increasingly likely this won’t last. And the NHC is predicting a more active Atlantic season than normal for pretty solid reasons.
Get it into the MSM as thoroughly as you can, before the first of the season arrives.
Tropical storm Barbara morphs into the first tropical depression of the 2013 hurricane season: Andrea. Andrea quickly develops into a category 1 and makes a run at the northern part of Cuba.
Eventually the ‘alarmists’ will notice that although the intensity of storms is not increasing, per se, the size (geographical area) of the storms are, the development of storms are very fast, and that storms die out slowly and last longer. Another swan song of ‘alarmists’ will be the ‘new’ trend of the blending together of multiple depressions, especially that of continental and oceanic.
…it will be more apparent this season that developing storms tend to take over entire basins, then move up the Gulf Stream and blend with one of a continuous series of continental depressions with interesting affects.
We are basically at the top of a slight warming period, everything is sort of stable and balanced.
Unfortunately, as temperatures drop slightly over the next decade or so, that may not remain the case.
There is an intriguing correlation between the N. Atlantic’s hurricane index (ACE) and past Arctic atmospheric pressure
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NAHs.htm
As you can see it suggests further drop in the ACE index, well below 100, while in 2000 it was around 250.
Gary Meyers in Ridgecrest says (June 1, 2013 at 11:49 am): “Somebody ought to write a parody about how global warming is killing the hurricane, natures weather regulators.”
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of hurricanes at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. — parody of Kevin Trenberth
Obviously the missing hurricanes are hiding in the deep ocean or Middle Earth, I forget which. 🙂
As other cynics like me have pointed out. this won’t matter once NYC or Boston gets slammed with another 1950’s style hurricane this season. Or next. They’re coming. Conditions are ripe. Look out below.
What does it matter what the alarmist say? No matter what happens, they will say it is our fault.
dang vukcevic, that’s a tight fit….
…I happen to agree with it too
NHC has overshot their mark
But with regard to the frequency of landfalling U.S. hurricanes, does it make any difference if the basin is in an ‘active’ period or a ‘quiet’ period? The surprising answer is ‘not much at all’. For the state of Florida there is a slightly greater risk during an active phase, but for the entire coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, the risk is actually slightly higher when the Atlantic basin is in a period of lower tropical cyclone activity.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Board=tb2013&Number=94287&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&fpart=1
littlepeaks says (June 1, 2013 at 11:46 am) wrote:
About 15 years or so, we had the remains of a Pacific hurricane come through here in Colorado. It rained about 3 days straight. With our drought here in Colo. Springs, we could certainly use one of those right now (except for the people in the Waldo Canyon burn scar area, who are worried about flooding).
I remember it well, Hurricane Nora, Sept 1997. Most of western AZ received more than their normal annual rainfall in 1 day.
When was the last time they predicted a less than average season?
Philjourdan, actually last year 2012. And NHC was right.
But one of the fewer than normal was Sandy, which happened to make landfall where fewer hurricanes do even in an above average active year.
The NYT and Bloomberg Businessweek ‘forgot’ and blamed Sandy on AGW. They also forgot the Midnight Monster of 1893 and the Long Island Express of 1938.
Jeez, back before AGW even hurricane names were cooler!
@Rud Istvan – I believe I said “less than average. In 2012, they predicted an AVERAGE season:
.
“I know that it may be hard to believe, but both hurricane damage and climate hype are set to increase dramatically in the years to come.” (from RP Jr.’s link in the article above)
Thank goodness! I thought I had been preaching to deaf ears. In almost every article on WUWT dealing with hurricanes over the past couple of years (essentially all about the hurricane drought) I commented (with alarm!) that it was only a matter of time (60 yrs after the 1950s cool period) skeptics were going to be caught crowing about the “drought” when we get hit with a multi-hurricane season. I admonished that if we didn’t take possession of the hurricane narrative and predict coming strong hurricanes (I would even like to see some predictions based on past history and climatic factors), then the very desperate, on-the-ropes, back-pedaling warming political scientists would, giving succour and new life to the Agenda that would take another generation of skepticism, coming from behind to eradicate. Can you imagine how skeptics would sound – “Oh, we knew this was going to happen!”, precisely the kind of gruel being dished out by the “retrospective predictions” of the walking dead.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/14/in-retrospect-we-predicted-global-warming-would-slow/
I did the heavy lifting(perhaps) on the hurricanes are coming back meme . I strongly suggest that a real hurricane expert make predictions on likely hurricanes (big and small, landfall and offshore). If someone doesn’t, I will try to do this using statistics relating to the temperature record, etc.
philjourdan says:
June 1, 2013 at 3:40 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/23/noaa-predicts-active-2013-atlantic-hurricane-season/#comment-1315745
@Kajajuk – Respectfully, “normal” is not less than average.
^Gary Pearse:
Joe Bastardi has been predicting a return to 1950’s weather pattern and hurricane frequency for several years now.
Further to my worry that skeptics would rest on their laurels on the hurricane drought and hand the initiative back to the grasping-at-straws warmists when hurricanes returned with a vengeance: a lot of the complacency of late has rested on low ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) figures. Note in Dr. Ryan Maue’s chart of ACE from a WUWT post of last October:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/maue_ace_by-year.png
that ACE can jump as much as 100 points in a year. 2009 -2010 jumped from approximately 40 to 135 (Oct 1 data) and then fell down in 2011 and 2012 to ~100. Also, the very busy hurricane season of 2005 that spawned Katrina and an entire alphabet of other storms, the ACE was ~175 but dropped to about 75 in 2006 – the beginning of the hurricane doldrums. Hurricane droughts are not a safe haven for skeptics.
Gary Pearse says:
June 1, 2013 at 4:21 pm
“….skeptics were going to be caught crowing about the “drought” when we get hit with a multi-hurricane season……[….]…take possession of the hurricane narrative and predict coming strong hurricanes ….”
Hi Gary,
I can’t see where you are coming from here.
The central issue is most of the recent (pro CAGW) reporting has been over dramatic reporting and outright lying about the issue.
The ‘skeptical’ approach has been to report the facts as they happen and point out the historical significance (or lack thereof) of the events.
I don’t see how the advent of a future season which matches historical seasons will change anything; again, it will simply be a matter of pointing out that it has all happened before. Predicting it (or even ‘projecting’ it!) is rife with the risk of getting it completely wrong, and I cannot see it would achieve anything or what discussion would ensue with such a prediction.
However, no doubt an ‘unprecedented’ season would provoke some discussion, but I’m not sure making random predictions would preempt that.