2013: slowest Atlantic hurricane season in 30 years

A couple of days ago, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. updated his famous graph of hurricane drought, and despite some ribbing from me on what could happen in May 2014, has confidently extended the drought out to the start of the hurricane season in June 2014:   Data here. NOAA issues this press release today: Slow…

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NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

From NOAA: In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher),…

On Guemas et al (2013) “Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade”

I received a number of emails about the newly published Guemas et al (2013) paper titled “Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade”. It’s paywalled. The abstract is here. It reads: Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth’s mean near-surface temperature paused its rise during the 2000–2010 period1.…

NOAA: '2012 was an active [hurricane] year, but not exceptionally so …10 busier years in the last three decades'

NOTE: see video below, where you can watch the entire 2012 hurricane season on satellite time-lapse, way cool. – Anthony Busy 2012 hurricane season continues decades-long high activity era in the Atlantic Four U.S. land-falling storms include devastating Sandy and Isaac November 30 marks the end of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season, one that produced…

Klotzbach and Gray 2012 forecast – cooler Atlantic – fewer hurricanes

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012 We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this…

Argo Notes the Third

I got into this investigation of Argo because I disbelieved their claimed error of 0.002°C for the annual average temperature of the top mile of the ocean. I discussed this in “Decimals of Precision“, where I showed that the error estimates were overly optimistic. I wanted to know more about what the structure of the…

The DeSmoggers are crashing and burning

Well, the DeSmog Blog “coup” is going down, oh the humanity. There’s a scathing second writeup at The Atlantic by Megan McArdle (as if the first wasn’t enough) that takes the DeSmoggers to task. Note to Hoggan and crew – when you can’t even get a left leaning news outlet to back you up, even…