Via Tom Nelson: Dr. Michael Mann, author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, responds to last week’s attacks from Dr. Richard Muller.
On the Green Front – Dr. Joseph Romm and Dr. Michael Mann – 08/15/12 at On the Green Front
Mann at the 40:40 mark, bold mine:
“One of the more robust predictions is that in the Atlantic, hurricane intensities have increased and they will likely continue to increase, and so, it’s part of a trend, Katrina, the record season of 2005 was part of a trend towards more destructive storms…“
Umm. Mike, seen this?
Since Katrina, accumulated cyclone energy is (a measure of intensity) is down in the Atlantic and globally. Power dissipation is also down globally. Some trend there, huh Mike?
Graphs from Dr. Ryan Maue, source: http://policlimate.com/tropical/
Or, has Mike seen this?
On December 5th, 2011, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. offered this graph of days between Cat3-5 hurricanes striking the USA:
Now, we are up to 2487 days since a major Hurricane made landfall on the USA. The graph looks like this now:
Where’s the trend toward more destructive storms Mike? Or are you reporting data from another planet?
UPDATE: For context, Mann is responding to a very critical interview with Richard Muller at the GREEN room. Full transcript of the Muller interview in the url below and write up at WUWT
They just make up any BS they want and the media, who basically make a living by running scare stories, eats garbage like this up and spreads it everywhere. If humans didn’t have a penchant for scare stories and didn’t have a media which makes a living by spreading scare stories about, we’d be 100’s of years ahead of where we are, climate change would be universally understood to be a natural phenomenon present through all universal history, CO2 would be universally understood to be a beneficial trace gas and we’d be geoengineering the planet to make it more habitable for life and humans by purposefully increasing the CO2 content, and building continent-scale water projects like NAWAPA to turn the deserts green.
The mind… it boggles.
It is not getting any easier for Michael with the 2012 season. There have been 7 named storms so for in the North Atlantic region, but the latest, Gordon, has only just started, so it has no ACE value. The ACE value for the other 6 storms is 17. For the three years when there was a total of 6 named storms, the ACE values were 25, 29 and 36. So, the early indications from the 2012 NA season is that there is still no trend to more intensive hurricanes.
There may be “…a trend towards more destructive storms”.
However, not because of more storms or more powerful storms but because of more and more silly humans erecting buildings in zones where the buildings are capable of being destroyed by hurricanes. If you got more buidings to be destroyed, you got “more destructive storms” when the buildings are destroyed.
Ipso facto.
You don’t suppose he is using Al Gore’s “satellite” picture as his proxy????
Actually, it is worst than we thought. First AGW is killing Polar Bears and now major Hurricanes are endangered! How I will miss the Hurricane parties!
Maybe it’s an opportunity for a new resource; a specific database of their claims, with date, time, and context listed, and the refutations. For example: Climate Liar # 324, Head of whatever, CBS Interview on 10/10/10, etc., then their direct quote and the actual data. Would make for wonderfully funny reading at the very least.
You know.Maybe the “the aliens are here” meme might just have some merit? Something has taken over Mr.Mann’s brain cells,and it is definitly anti-human.
It’s been 6.81 YEARS since a major storm hit,and that’s an increasing trend? But then,math is HARD!
Scare stories have two benefits: 1) they keep the kiddies in check for a while, 2) they eventually teach the kiddies to be skeptical of everything they hear. But there also are drawbacks: 1) the kiddies get addicted to scare stories and clamor for more, 2) some kiddies – when they grow up – learn there’s money to be made with scare stories and so abuse them. Mikey has this all figured out.
Robust goes bust. One of Mann’s favourite words is losing its meaning.
My pedestrian research shows a curious correlation to the Arctic atmospheric pressure some 15 years earlier.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AHA.htm
“One of the more robust predictions is that in the Atlantic, hurricane intensities have increased…”
I am not sure that even George Orwell took 1984 that far.
Hey, he did not say it was a “robust prediction”, but that it was “one of the more robust predictions”, meaning he thinks most of his other predictions were weaker than this one.
And as this particular prediction failed miserably, it is just a rather convoluted and circumspect way to acknowledge he could hardly predict anything.
Nonetheless it is an important moment in his spiritual development. He just needs to resolve the cognitive dissonance he is submerged in and presto! we’ll have a fellow skeptic to welcome in our ranks. Is not science wonderful?
I keep thinking “Let them keep making these claims. They are just setting themselves up for a fail.”
But then I remember to never under estimate the power of stupidity.
The problem is that there are plenty of people in positions of power who will believe what Romm and Mann say without taking the time to review the criticisms or understand that their statements are pure foam. The CAGW proponents know this and keep on forwarding the deception. Just last week Babs Boxer used the “97-98% of climate scientists agree with global warming” reference, and this was in the face of one of the most eminent climate scientists who questions CAGW. We have city council members around here who vote for Climate Action Plans citing the “consensus,” despite our efforts to encourage them to look at the data and think for themselves.
He’s probably looking at a model. That trumps reality anyday. /s
I find Mann’s CAGW extremism predictable and boring…wake me up when he says something coherent…
Not to mention :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
and
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/hurricane-climatology.html
One has to ask if his mummy knows he’s escaped from kindergarten…
This isn’t a problem created by scientists such as Hansen and Mann. They are simply a product of the system that the voters have allowed to develop. The squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Scientists need funding to survive. So, of course the scientists that want to survive are going to cherry pick and say there is a problem. Otherwise they are out of work as scientists. Why would a politician pay money to solve something that is not a problem?
Over time this process will weed out the responsible scientists and replace then with scientists that are willing to exaggerate problems in order to survive. Mann and Hansen didn’t create the problem. The problem created them.
Michael Mann is a typical libtard. Facts are not relevant, only their goal is and it has nothing to do with science. Thanks to Anthony and Dr. Maue for bringing the fact hammer.
The best response to Mann’s idiotic pronouncements is to present the facts contradicting his assertions and ridicule him for his stupidity and ignorance.
Jay Davis
nuclearcannoli
You write “Would make for wonderfully funny reading at the very least.“
Unfortunately, as I have seen only too often on Judith Curry`s Climate Etc., the warmaholics invent all sorts of wonderful reasons why the predictions did not say what they actually said, and so the predictions are absolutely correct.
Mann is not stupid or ignorant. He knows EXACTLY what he is doing. The graphs and facts have not escaped his attention. He misrepresents the facts knowing full well that opposing views rarely get an airing in the media so he can get away with it. Thank God for the Internet. Or should that be Al Bore?
Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: ‘U.S. midwestern drought has decreased in past 50+ years? That is not skepticism, that’s IPCC’
http://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/235809535271510017
H/t Climate Depot
OFF TOPIC: another note on the intermittency of fossil fuel powered electricity supplies, or why conventional power and nuclear power need solar and wind backup:
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Drought_hits_US_power_supply_999.html
I exaggerate, but as costs of wind and solar continue to decline (does anyone bet that the costs will not continue to decline), the liabilities of fossil fuel will attract more attention.
Michael Mann lives on his own planet, with his own set of rules, governed by his own laws, making up his own “science”, and wishing everybody else didn’t exist. In a way he’s a scientific hermit (but much more hermit than scientist).
I think that pretty much covers the question: “What planet does Michael Mann live on?”.