More modeling madness projecting the future, but the actual data for the past 30 years says otherwise, with a positive trend. Regular commenter Julienne Stroeve of NSIDC is one of the co-authors, so perhaps she’ll weigh in here. The article says “They selected the five models that most closely reproduced changes in actual Antarctic sea ice cover during the 20th century.” But given what we’ve seen recently about preselection of data in Gergis et al, I wonder if this isn’t another case of the “screening fallacy“.
From NCAR: Emperor penguins threatened by Antarctic sea ice loss
BOULDER—A decline in the population of emperor penguins appears likely this century as climate change reduces the extent of Antarctic sea ice, according to a detailed projection published this week.
The study, led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), with co-authors from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations, focuses on a much-observed colony of emperor penguins in Terre Adélie, Antarctica. The authors conclude that the number of breeding pairs may fall by about 80 percent by 2100.
“The projected decreases in sea ice may fundamentally alter the Antarctic environment in ways that threaten this population of penguins,” says NCAR scientist Marika Holland, a co-author of the study.
The study uses a set of sophistical computer simulations of climate as well as a statistical model of penguin demographics. Building on previous work, it examines how the sea ice may vary at key times during the year such as during egg laying, incubation, rearing chicks, and non- breeding season, as well as the potential influence of sea ice concentrations on males and females.
The authors stress that their projections contain large uncertainties, because of the difficulties in projecting both climate change and the response of penguins. However, almost all of their computer simulations pointed to a significant decline in the colony at Terre Adélie, a coastal region of Antarctica where French scientists have conducted penguin observations for more than 50 years.
“Our best projections show roughly 500 to 600 breeding pairs remaining by the year 2100,” says lead author Stéphanie Jenouvrier, a WHOI biologist. “Today, the population size is around 3,000 breeding pairs.”
She noted that another penguin population, the Dion Islets penguin colony close to the West Antarctic Peninsula, has disappeared, possibly because of a decline in Antarctic sea ice.
The new research represents a major collaboration between biologists and climate scientists to assess the potential impacts of climate change on a much-studied species.
Published this week in the journal Global Change Biology, the study was funded in part by the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor. Other funders include WHOI; the French National Agency for Research (ANR) program on biodiversity; the ANR REMIGE program (Behavioral and Demographic Responses of Indian Ocean Marine Top Predators to Global Environmental Changes); the Zone Research Workshop for the Antarctic and Subantarctic Environment (ZATA); the Paul Emilie Victor Institute (IPEV); Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; Marie-Curie European Fellowship; and the U.S. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences visiting fellowship.
Vulnerable emperors of the ice
At nearly four feet tall, emperors are the largest species of penguin. They are vulnerable to changes in sea ice, where they breed and raise their young almost exclusively. If that ice breaks up and disappears early in the breeding season, massive breeding failure may occur, Jenouvrier says.
Disappearing sea ice may also affect the penguins’ food sources. They feed primarily on fish, squid, and krill, a shrimplike animal that feeds on zooplankton and phytoplankton that grow on the underside of ice. If the ice goes, Jenouvrier says, so too will the plankton, causing a ripple effect through the food web that may starve the various species that penguins rely on as prey.
To project how the extent of sea ice in the region will change this century, Holland and another co-author, Julienne Stroeve, a sea ice specialist from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, evaluated 20 of the world’s leading computer-based climate models. They selected the five models that most closely reproduced changes in actual Antarctic sea ice cover during the 20th century.
“When a computer simulation performs well in reproducing past climate conditions, that suggests its projections of future climate conditions are more reliable,” Holland says.
The team evaluated simulations from each of the 20 climate models. The simulations were based on a scenario of moderate growth in greenhouse gas emissions during this century. The moderate growth scenario portrays future reliance by society on a combination of greenhouse-gas emitting fossil fuels as well as renewable energy sources.
The simulations showed a decline in sea ice coverage across a large region by Terre Adélie at key times in the penguin breeding cycle, although they differed in the details.
Jenouvrier used the output from the climate models to determine how changes in temperature and sea ice might affect the emperor penguin population at Terre Adélie, studying such details as how the sea ice was likely to vary during breeding season and how it could affect chicks, breeding pairs, and non-breeding adults. She found that if global temperatures continue to rise at their current rate—causing sea ice in the region to shrink—penguin population numbers most likely will diminish slowly until about 2040, after which they would decline at a much steeper rate as sea ice coverage drops below a usable threshold.
The authors say that more research is needed to determine whether emperor penguins may be able to adapt to changing conditions or disperse to regions where the sea ice is more habitable.
Human reliance on the Antarctic
Rising temperature in the Antarctic isn’t just a penguin problem, according to Hal Caswell, a senior mathematical biologist at WHOI and collaborator on the study. As sea ice coverage continues to shrink, the resulting changes in the Antarctic marine environment will affect other species, and may affect humans as well.
“We rely on the functioning of those ecosystems,” he says. “We eat fish that come from the Antarctic. We rely on nutrient cycles that involve species in the oceans all over the world. Understanding the effects of climate change on predators at the top of marine food chains—like emperor penguins—is in our best interest, because it helps us understand ecosystems that provide important services to us.”
Also co-authoring the study were Christophe Barbraud and Henri Weimerskirch of the Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, in France, and Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United States.
About the article
Title: Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models
Authors: Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Marika Holland, Julienne Stroeve, Christophe Barbraud, Henri Weimerskirch, Mark Serreze, and Hal Caswell
Journal: Global Change Biology
Update
The article appears to be available here.
h/t to commenter Michael R
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Am I alone in feeling that rather morbidly hypnotic thrill one experiences when watching car crashes and the like?
Duncan B (UK)
I can hardly wait to see how their projections come out. Perhaps we can do a mid-term check around 2075 and really hold their feet to the fire on it.
An now back to the real world – it’s worse than we previously thought!!!
It’s all downhill from here. Just think of the poor polar bears whose population has increased from 5,000 in the 1950s to over 20,000 today in the face of declining sea ice. We are doomed I tells ya!
“Rising temperatures in the Antarctic“? What world are these people living on? Did they bother to read O’Donnell et. al. or are they accepting Steig’s work as writ? “sea ice coverage continues to shrink” ….. but globally and locally in the Antarctic sea ice coverage is not shrinking. What is the point of this exercise?
“They selected the five models that most closely reproduced changes in actual Antarctic sea ice cover during the 20th century.”
Given the fact that we have little idea how much ice there was prior to the satellite era, how precisely did they determine which models best fit the data?
I wonder what baseline number was used for the emperor penguins. I recall a recent study based upon satellite photos that revealed there were twice as many emperors as estimated in prior surveys.
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=1786
I wonder if they factored out the human element 😉
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v469/n7329/full/nature09630.html
” Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 39% fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16% lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded.”
I am not too convinced that the Dion Isle penguins vanished due to climate change. The small colony (estimated at150 breeding pairs) was discovered in 1948. It is the only colony discovered on the west coast of the peninsula. It reportedly started to decline in 1970 although I am not sure how thoroughly it was studied prior. It was one of the only known colonies where breeding took place on land (one other colony is known for this). It seems like an out of place, on the brink colony from the beginning.
this is too retarded to believe.
i want to see some hangings, now.
helloooo heartland? got gleick?
I am wildly speculating here but wouldn’t declining sea ice reduce the distance they have to walk to get to the ocean therefore reducing the likelihood of stress and deaths along the way? Would this not help to INCREASE their populations? Just speculating.
Let’s see. We have a model of the ice responding to a model of the climate and a model of penguins responding to the model of the ice. The product is “simulations” that show the penguin populations “most likely” [whisper–waffle] will diminish, but, of course, “more research is needed[whisper– rent-seeking].” And all without a shred of real data! Brilliant! /sarc
As we continue to ignore the data and write papers based on defective models… “the resulting changes in the Antarctic marine environment will affect other species, and may affect humans as well.”
It’s not just the forced banding of the birds that reduces their likelihood of breeding, it’s also diseases introduced by caring researchers and eco-tourists.
http://www.ats.aq/documents/SATCM12/att/SATCM12_att002_e.pdf
They should photoshop a penguin next to that hapless polar bear on the shriveling ice floe.
And a weeping Indian in the foreground for good measure.
““Emperor Penguin Numbers Double Previous Estimates…”
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-leNf6VRGuww/TZOFwIlk-9I/AAAAAAAACK4/msVBuCf9zAo/s400/181148-triple_facepalm_super.jpg
“…appears likely…”
“…may fundamentally…”
“…may vary…”
“…potential influence…”
“The authors stress that their projections contain large uncertainties…”
“Disappearing sea ice may also affect the penguins’ food sources…”
“…might affect…”
“…most likely will diminish…”
“…The authors say that more research is needed to determine whether emperor penguins may be able to adapt to changing conditions …”
Definitive study.
Unfortunately, these “scientists” have confused actual physical Emperor Penguins with another breed, the variety most often used for studies these days, the all-too-common Pixelated Penguin. The Pixelated Penguin is, in fact, strongly affected by virtual climate change in its binary environment, and yes, that virtual climate change is clearly due to man made programs. Thankfully, Pixelateds breed well in captivity (actually, ONLY in captivity) as long as adequate funding is available.
Presumably they shut their eyes, stuck their fingers in their ears and went La La La when this story was published???
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17692025
Can I have some of their fantasy pills? I’m trying hard to pretend that reality doesn’t exist, but, damn it, it just won’t go away. Maybe if I had a bottle of those supercalifragilisticexpialidocious little pills, I could see visions of suicidal penguins dancing through the polar bear poo.
The increase in sea ice is due to the antarctic glaciers sliding off the continent and into the sea. We’re doomed because of the subsequent sea level rise. And the penguins will be doomed, too, because eventually all that ice will slide off and melt.
“The number of breeding pairs may fall by about 80 percent by 2100”, writes Stéphanie Jenouvrier.
Well, Steph’s uncle may really be her aunt but is it scientifically useful to publish such a fact?
This is a rehash of their 2010 study and it is all based on the sudden decline in the 1970’s began before the temporary ice decline sea ice extent. Sea ice extent was a totally unrelated variable because Emperors are depend on open waters of leads and polynya. They have just changed the variable to sea ice concentration. Periodic fast-ice breakouts have enhanced the breeding success by providing easier access to open waters, and easier access improves adult survivorship. Recent studies by Fraser 2012, have also shown that the fast ice that they nest on is thickening, None of those models have incorporated fast ice dynamics which are the most crucial.
Not only do their models depend on climate models that have not predicted the ice extent,or fast ice, they depend on their 2001 paper where they made unsupported speculation that the low ice caused, low krill and thus the adults must have starved.No dead bodies or lean birds were ever reported. In contrast the same paper showed simultaneous high breeding success so there must have been ample krill to feed both young and adults. Also krill eaters like baleen whales and Adelie penguins breeeding at the very same site have been increasing at great rates again suggesting ample krill.
There is much better evidence that the decline in Emperors was due to the coinciding flipper banding that was known to cause death or encouraged the adults to breed elsewhere. The 2001 paper noted a high degree of “lost” bands the first year and second year of banding. But they could not tell if the bands were lost or the birds just didn’t return. Satellite observation shows a new colony nearby at the Mertz Glacier. Furthermore at this colony the French had further disrupted the penguins by building an airstrip by dynamiting 3 islands, which also destroud about 2000 adelie penguin nests, who breed later in the spring. Their models simply can’t tell the difference between death and emigration, so they have arbitrarily decided the penguins died. Their model of survivorship is all based on that assumption and voila- death by global warming. Hal Caswell also has modeled the polar bears into a similar extinction. It is horrific science!
“…The authors say that more research is needed to determine whether emperor penguins may be able to adapt to changing conditions …”
Where was the “study” in this paper. How can you do more of something you simply haven’t done any of. Mon dieu
To be fair, the fact penguin numbers are twice what was originally thought does not directly bear on whether or not significant changes in their environment could have a big impact on their numbers. It might just mean that they take longer to die out because there are more of them, or that they die in greater numbers.
What I question is why not use (or ignore) real data on Antarctic ice extent? We have satellite data that tells us how much ice there is. If it is not currently shrinking, shouldn’t they first provide evidence that it most certainly can be expected to shrink in the future? Other than model exercises. (It’s a retorical question.)
Whenever I see press releases like this that describe research that consists primarily of running models, I am reminded of when my son spent hours playing video games. He could run an entire NFL season in an hour or so. The game (model) was most likely far more accurate in simulating reality than GCM’s with fewer unknowns and far simplier processes. Yet who would be willing to place bets in Vegas on next year’s Super Bowl winner based on the results of running this game ( model)?
Streuth, that must be a record. You’ve got a picture of six emperors there, and none of them have any clothes on.