From Live Science
An extremely dangerous storm is slicing toward northwestern Alaska and is expected to bring blizzard conditions and hurricane-strength winds to the state’s west coast. The storm, which formed from a mix of air masses over an area of ocean prone to spinning up strong storms, could be bigger than anything ever seen in the 49th state, the National Weather Service warned.
…
The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the cold air off Siberia, picking up speed in a jet stream near there and then intensifying as it moved into the Bering Sea – “a place where storms typically intensify,” Brader told OurAmazingPlanet.
The weird storm has an unusually long fetch length, which is the length of the wind blowing in a single direction over water. In this case it’s maybe 1,000 miles (1,600 km), Brader said.
To envision what a long fetch length will do, think about blowing wind with your mouth over a bowl of water; the water piles up at the opposite end. The same thing happens over the ocean. The stronger and longer the fetch length, the bigger the waves it will create.
The winds from the current storm will push high waves ashore and create widespread coastal flooding and severe erosion of the coastline, the NWS warns. Sea levels could rise as much as 10 feet (3 meters) above normal in the Norton Sound and along the Bering Strait coast.
We all know that everything is attributable to global climate warming change disruption, so two points to the first commentor who can post a source attributing the storm or resulting flooding to our old friend…
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Has “slicing” got a special meaning with view to how a storm is approaching, e.g. angle/speed, or is this just another way to say “it’s coming”?
Looks more like the start of an Ice Age. Warm water. Cold air. Heaps of snow
http://ed694.community.uaf.edu/2011/11/08/storm-nears-western-alaska/
does this count? We’ll never know if someone “in the discussion” attributes the storm to CAGW, but there’s an evens chance.
Reply: I think that’s a stretch, we need direct attribution by the author of the article in question. JTF
Even if sea ice was at normal levels, there wouldn’t be much sea ice in that area this time of year anyway.
Many will claim that this is caused by CAGW especially the Democrats who seem not to be able to think of anything else.
Does this count:
From the original source ‘The storm could be similar to a 1974 Alaska storm, but sea ice is lower in today’s warmer world, providing no protection along the coast, according to the NWS’
Thought it worth a try :o)
Reply: While leading, that’s probably an accurate statement, i.e. it is probably warmer than it was in 1974 and sea ice extent and area is probably lower than 1974, though the lack of satellite records leaves that with a question mark. JTF
http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/11/08/364470/alaskas-katrina-looms-extremely-dangerous-and-life-threatening-storm-of-an-epic-magnitude-approaches/
Will this do?
Reply: That’s probably a winner, though Think Progress attributes everything to global climate warming change disruption so we can only award point and a half here… JTF
In before the lock:
http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/11/08/364470/alaskas-katrina-looms-extremely-dangerous-and-life-threatening-storm-of-an-epic-magnitude-approaches/
Reply: Ditto… JTF
nice big scary story for almost the entire New Zealand population and its insurance industry!
9 Nov: Stuff New Zealand: Rising seas on the way
NIWA coasts and natural hazards principal scientist Rob Bell spoke about planning for rising sea levels during the New Zealand Coastal Society annual conference at the Tahuna Beach Holiday Park conference centre on Monday…
One of main impacts of rising sea levels for the region would be extreme weather events such as storm tides, especially on low-lying areas of the central business district and suburbs such as The Wood, he said.
If sea levels were to rise by 30 centimetres, then a one-in-200-year storm event would become about a one-in-three year event…
Dr Bell said rises of more than a metre could not be ruled out, and should at least be considered.
Natural variability from the seasons, weather patterns such as El Nino, and 20-to-30-year warming and cooling patterns meant it would not be until about 2030 that scientists would be able to tell clearly if the difference in sea levels between then and now were due to any accelerated sea level rise. Climate change also affected the frequency of storms, floods, levels of sediments, erosion of sand spits, higher tides and water volumes in estuaries…
Conservation Department resource management planner Stephen Wynne-Jones said when extreme events became more frequent, some people were “going to find they’re going to have troubles with the insurance companies”…
Areas at risk of rising sea levels
65 per cent of NZ’s communities and major infrastructure are within 5km of the sea.
Twelve of NZ’s 15 largest towns and cities are coastal, and are home to 64 per cent of the total NZ population…
http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/5934690/Rising-seas-on-the-way
Joni has a story to tell:
4 Nov: Newsweek The Daily Beast: Joni Seager: Eye of the Storm
Why women get walloped more than men by the globe’s ever-changing climate
The gap is easiest to see in the most acute disasters. In the 2004 Southeast Asia tsunami, death rates for women across the region averaged three to four times that of men. That’s in part because girls and women, per tradition, were less likely to have been taught how to swim. Also, many lacked the upper body strength necessary to climb to safety or cling to a tree; and, most tragically, in a fast-moving storm surge, mothers who stopped to find and gather up children or other dependents lost valuable time, which in some cases meant the difference between life and death…
(Joni Seager is an activist and scholar in feminist geography, international women’s studies, and global environmental policy. She is the author of more than a dozen books, including the Atlas of Women in the World. She is Chair of Global Studies at Bentley University in Waltham, MA, and a consultant with the international NGO, AIDS-Free World.)
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/11/04/climate-change-and-natural-disasters-why-women-get-hit-hardest.html
Damn, me and Malcolm were waiting for moderation at the same time…
It looks like the image link in the main article has expired.
Here is a link to the latest UW MM5-NAM 36km Domain, 72 hr forecast loop showing projected weather conditions in the North Pacific up to the southern half of Alaska. I believe this link is being updated twice a day. During the update process, loops may be incomplete as it usually takes several minutes to generate each new frame hot off the computer.
Courtesy of the Atmospheric Sciences Department of
the University of Washington
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_e_slp+///
Reply: Yep, fixed. Thx. The source can be found here;
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/tvwx.php
and additional info here:
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/
Ah, I’m not the only one who found the /progressive/group/think link.
Excerpts follow. Bold added, which only emphasizes how this “article” is so ridiculous/pathetic as to be self-parodying.
Open question: Why doesn’t Joe Romm (of the former stand-alone Climate Progress blog) have the byline? Were the claims that were to be included too preposterous for even him to stomach?
Ach… all this excitement and the Barrow Sea Ice Webcam is not updating.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
I don’t know about who’s going to claim this storm for climate change but here’s the FEMA page for Alaska weather history and there’s quite a few ‘severe storms’.
http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters_state.fema?id=2
If there was sea ice, then ten foot storm tides would lift it, and hurricane force winds would grind it ashore. It would in no way “protect” the shore. In fact, when storms produce on-shore winds and the Great Lakes are frozen, the ice on occasion can snip shore-side trees like scissors cutting hair.
There is a video of ice grinding ashore on the North-slope coast of Alaska, somewhere. As I recall, human structures of metal don’t stand up to the ice all that well.
They are probably lucky there is little ice. Ten foot tides are bad enough. Any WUWT people up there? There’s nothing better than having a reporter on the scene. It sure beats having “Weather Channel’s Tim Ballisty” dream up scenarios from a warm office several thousand miles away.
Reply: You are probably right, Sea Ice Area in the Bering Sea is de minimis at the moment and historically;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.2.html
and Sea Ice Extent;
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/r12_Bering_Sea_ts.png
would seem to offer projectiles versus protection…
I ever-so-vaguely recall watching a video many years ago (pre internet) about a storm that caused waves to hit mountainsides 1/2 a mile high somewhere around… hm, either Valdez or Seward, I don’t remember now. I believe the storm was supposed to have happened before any settling of Alaska, it was all based on damage to the side of the mountain, trees, rocks, etc.
Meh I just don’t remember the details. Pretty sure it was a storm though and not an earthquake, such an event from an earthquake isn’t nearly as remarkable.
As I recall Bearing storms are pretty common and can be pretty brutal. Don’t there people watch that Dangerous Catch show? 🙂 Anyway, people living in that part of Alaska are pretty tough hombres, I’m sure they’ll make it through. Not to mention there are probably about 1/1000th of the # of people that were impacted by Katrina.
That was supposed to be “them there people”, don’cha know? 😉
The kilometer high “wave” was due to a landslide into the sound. Thus it’d be catergorized as a “tsunami”.
If there’s a lack of sea ice (it’s farther north), the storm itself is prb’ly north of where it would be otherwise. So, the US northwest is saved by lower Arctic ice!
Spinifers: that was a 1958 earthquake that caused millions of tons of rock to sheer off and fall in a small bay. The 1720 ft wall of water removed soil down to the bedrock (6 ft diameter trees were removed 1720 ft above the bay.)
Also: anything over 100 ft isn’t a wave, it’s a slap.
pat says:
November 9, 2011 at 3:44 am
Feminists have a different geography to the rest of us? Does that mean they live on a different planet, or just draw it differently?
It’s weather, it’s nearly winter and stormy in Alaska, wow and it’s really mild here in England. The climate is changing again, get over yourselves.
Yawn. Sounds like a typical winter storm to me. I lived on Adak for 2 years (1958, ’59). Pretty much expected weather.
My prediction: A storm this powerful usually leaves behind a path of water that is 2-3C cooler than it was before the storm. This area will freeze up earlier than usual and probably with a larger coverage area.
I wonder if people making sea ice coverage predictions will take this into account.