The major winter storm in Alaska mentioned overnight on WUWT, while weaker than the previous record storm 1974, gets pegged as being “aided and abetted by global warming”:
While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
With this sort of “journalism” it will soon come to pass that any significant weather event, anytime, will be connected to global warming climate change climate disruption. Sheesh, the stupid, it burns.
And where’s the proof? There is none, it is pure speculation, and not even good speculation at that.And as we see time and time again, when somebody speculates on these events, the analysis shows otherwise.
- Tornadoes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Hurricanes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Flooding linked to global warming- FALSE
- Increased deaths due to storminess in the era of global warming- FALSE
I’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: how do we know the number and intensity measurements of storms aren’t due to reporting bias? 100 years ago, if when such a storm rolled in, did we have satellites, weather networks, and insta-launch web opinion to tell us it was connected to warming coming out of the little ice age? No. Were we even aware of such storms? Maybe – weeks or months later, if they got reported at all.
And what about this statement?
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
What happened in the 1960’s? Weather satellites, and weather monitoring was standardized in Alaska, thanks to it becoming the 49th state in 1959.
And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.
This bears repeating: Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective
Tell writer Pete Spotts what you think of this here
h/t to WUWT reader A. Scott
UPDATE: 11/09/2011 7PM PST
Commenter Phillip Bradley writes:
…while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Masters’ claim of,
…an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s
Looks to be false.
I examined the paper and made this excerpt from Zhang et al 2004:
Doesn’t look like any significant trend to me. They write in the paper:
The trajectory counts of cyclones originating in the two regions also show signatures consistent with the CAI variability in the Arctic region (Fig. 11b). Specifically, there was a generally increasing tendency from 1955 to 1980 and a decreasing tendency after 1980 for both types of cyclones.
UPDATE2: 7:45PM PST – The NWS is now making claims of a Cat3 hurricane equivalent in this KTUU-TV news story:
Really? Where?
One the places cited in many news stories as being a problem spot is Kivalina. There’s not even any Cat1 winds there: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PAVL.html
And Weather Underground sure doesn’t look all that bad, no hurricane force winds on this map:
The worst I found was Tin City, which briefly had Cat1 level winds:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PATC.html
UPDATE3: 8:15PM PST – the climb-down, no Cat 3 hurricane here:
Earlier today (see comment from John below for full text)
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 …ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD… A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
WWAK82 PAFG 100330 SPSWCZ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 630 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011 ... ...STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO BUFFET WESTERN ALASKA... THE STRONG STORM WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERING WESTERN ALASKA MOVED NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWEST REACHING WRANGELL ISLAND LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HARD HITTING WEATHER WITH THIS STORM IS FAR FROM OVER AS SEA LEVELS RISE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER NORTON SOUND...THE BERING STRAIT...AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH...BUT THIS DIRECTION FAVORS MUCH MORE MOVEMENT OF SEA WATER INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES RAISING THE WATER LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE TIDES. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SO FAR: BUCKLAND........56 MPH AT 316AM WED CAPE LISBURNE...81 MPH AT 700AM WED CAPE ROMANZOF...60 MPH AT 300AM WED DEERING.........61 MPH AT 319AM WED EMMONAK.........62 MPH AT 1100PM TUE GAMBELL.........74 MPH AT 600PM TUE GOLOVIN.........64 MPH AT 1200AM WED KIANA...........54 MPH AT 715AM WED KIVALINA........71 MPH AT 323AM WED KOTZEBUE........74 MPH AT 600AM WED KOYUK...........41 MPH AT 800AM WED MARSHALL........64 MPH AT 1100PM TUE NOATAK..........62 MPH AT 1036AM WED NOME............61 MPH AT 900PM TUE NOORVIK.........67 MPH AT 423AM WED POINT HOPE......78 MPH AT 500AM WED RED DOG MINE....48 MPH AT 935AM WED SAINT MARYS.....61 MPH AT 900PM TUE ST MICHAEL......68 MPH AT 1200AM WED SAVOONGA........76 MPH AT 700PM TUE SCAMMON BAY.....72 MPH AT 800PM TUE SHAKTOOLIK......64 MPH AT 115AM WED SHISHMAREF......57 MPH AT 1216AM WED SHUNGNAK........69 MPH AT 900AM WED TELLER..........71 MPH AT 600AM WED TIN CITY........85 MPH AT 1200AM WED UNALAKLEET......66 MPH AT 1200AM WED WALES...........89 MPH AT 142AM WED
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When you look at the current
hurricanetropical storm season, are we to blame the low number of hurricanes, compared to the high number of tropical storms, on climate change?It must make Dr. Masters feel better to make such a pronouncement in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary. I can see no other reason…for if it were thought out, such a statement would never be made. “with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.” Or, as the population of hippies increased, or any other sixties-related increase….This is a completely speculative conclusion!
If you’ve looked at the NWS current Alaska weather map with all its reporting stations, the storm did not materialize to the scary level reported yesterday and this morning.
The wind storm we experienced last week here in the upper Copper River Basin of Alaska made this current storm look and feel like a spring breeze.
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/wx/current.html
Ridiculous levels of stupidity abound within the man-made-global warming worship clique.
Looking at SST anomalies, there is a lot of blue around Alaska. Of course, with conducive environments, systems can still pick up plenty of water vapor when the ocean is cooler than normal, but global warming is not contributing to this uptake in water vapor!
“While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.”
The RSS data for October just came out and the value for October, 2011 was 0.089. Unless I missed it, only one year was colder for October since 1995 and that was in 1999 at 0.077.
The other article said: “The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the cold air off Siberia”
Perhaps if it was not so cold, the “cold air off Siberia” would be warmer and the temperature differential would not have been as great and the storm would not have been as big.
It seems this sort of quackery is surfacing more and more. I think the PR guys have focus grouped this one and figger it’s a winner. Even the supposed weather experts at Environmentalcase Canada see connections between weather and climate. Trolls everywhere are making similar claims. I guess the hive has sent out dispatches to all their drones, commanding them to spread the party line.
This is little more than the “chorus” effect, wherein journalists (I use the term loosely) assert certainty based on the fact that many others have uttered similar stuff.
Doesn’t make it any more true – never has – never will.
Actual data and credible proxies (like fossil forests exposed beneath receding glaciers) show that past times were far warmer than today and somehow >>99% of everything survived.
Storms have always been storms – local, intense, and spatially sporadic. No Big Deal.
What do you do? How do you deal with so many people who see the world not as it is, not even with the rosy glow of optimism, but rather through the brown smear of pessimistic spectacles?
Well of course the Climate Alarmists are crying over this storm… the need SOMETHING to point to. This year’s Hurricane season certainly didn’t live up to their hype.
I hope they keep it up and get louder and louder.
When you keep consuming after the “receptor” has passed its point of tolerance and adaptation, the consumed substance gets more and more unpleasant and unwanted.
Works with everything. Alcohol, tobacco, cocaine, marijuana, sex, porn, apocalyptic cults.
Hmm, 1974.
Cyclone Tracy destroyed Darwin (and I mean destroyed, none of this Irene wussiness)
A monster la Nina flooded Brisbane…repeated this year in the terrible Qld floods (now how on Earth could that possibly have happened?)
I didn’t have to go to school for a whole week as floods made the road impassable (yay!)
We had about a zillion newspaper articles on the danger of a new ice age starting next week.
Obviously global warming.
“While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event”
Weaker = Global Warming?
Does that mean if it was stronger it would NOT be evidence of … ha ha ha. Who am I kidding?Everything is evidence of global warming.
Thankfully as we enter our third colder winter in a row most people have learned to just ignore this type of hype. I expect that must be frightening to the true believers.
while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Masters’ claim of,
an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s
Looks to be false.
The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the cold air off Siberia,
=====================================
The air coming off Siberia is colder than normal……………
but then Dr Masters is right……global warming causes more cold and snow……./snark
…what an indoctrinated brain washed moron
@Schitzree Now don’t go jinxing this perfectly good Hurricane season we’ve been having. It still goes to 1 Dec, we’ve got three weeks to get through! I like my Hurricane season very tropical stormish: it brings rain without the wind and storm surge damage.
Ahhh the more intense storms due to global warming… LOL
It continually leaves me wondering…….. are these people intentionally lying to people or are they just that stupid?
You wrote –
And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.
They actually wrote this prior to the storm:
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011
…ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD…
A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.
THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST…ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND…RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.
OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND…
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST…WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA…SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED…WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.
WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF…ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.
THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY…HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.
THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND…WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.
ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED…SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.
AGAIN…THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.
=====================================================================
REPLY: Thanks, I can’t find that now. Do you have a URL? Note the wind speeds in the updates – Anthony
How could such pass the editors… oh wait, what editors?
O/T but weather-related:
the UK govt’s CAGW policies cause energy bills to skyrocket, and then…..
10 Nov: UK Daily Mail: Give your winter fuel handouts to the poor, wealthy pensioners are told
2,700 older Britons die each winter because they cannot afford to heat their homes
Despite sky-high energy prices, the Government has cut winter fuel payments this year from £400 to £300 for the over-80s, and £250 to £200 for all other pensioners…
Lib Dem MP Tessa Munt called on David Cameron during Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday to support efforts to make it easier for people to donate by including information on the appeal in letters sent out to advise of payments. Mr Cameron agreed to look at the idea, but warned: ‘I would not want to see any pressure put on people to do something that might not be in their best interests.’ …
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059665/Give-winter-fuel-handouts-poor-wealthy-pensioners-told.html
Dr Masters cries “Doctor, save my baby!”
And so Climate Disruption fizzles on. The yawners just keep on comin’!
Didn’t you run an article about how storms need to cross over colder water to build intensity?