The paper is currently in press at the Journal of Coastal Research and is provided with open access to the full publication. The results are stunning for their contradiction to AGW theories which suggest global warming would accelerate sea level rise during the last century.
“Our first analysis determined the acceleration, a2, for each of the 57 records with results tabulated in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. There is almost a balance with 30 gauge records showing deceleration and 27 showing acceleration, clustering around 0.0 mm/y2.”
…
The near balance of accelerations and decelerations is mirrored in worldwidegauge records as shown in Miller and Douglas (2006)
Abstract:
Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses
J. R. Houston† and R. G. Dean‡ †Director Emeritus, Engineer Research and Development Center, Corps of Engineers, 3909 Halls Ferry Road, Vicksburg, MS 39180, U.S.A. james.r.houston@usace.army.mil
‡Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Coastal Civil Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, U.S.A. dean@coastal.ufl.edu
Without sea-level acceleration, the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m from 2010 to 2100; therefore, sea-level acceleration is a critical component of projected sea-level rise. To determine this acceleration, we analyze monthly-averaged records for 57 U.S. tide gauges in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data base that have lengths of 60–156 years. Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations, and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations. To compare these results with worldwide data, we extend the analysis of Douglas (1992) by an additional 25 years and analyze revised data of Church and White (2006) from 1930 to 2007 and also obtain small sea-level decelerations similar to those we obtain from U.S. gauge records.
Received: October 5, 2010; Accepted: November 26, 2010; Published Online: February 23, 2011
Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses, J. R. Houston and R. G. Dean
Discussion: (excerpt)
We analyzed the complete records of 57 U.S. tide gauges that had average record lengths of 82 years and records from1930 to 2010 for 25 gauges, and we obtained small decelerations of 20.0014 and20.0123 mm/y2, respectively. We obtained similar decelerations using worldwide-gauge records in the original data set of Church andWhite (2006) and a 2009 revision (for the periods of 1930–2001 and 1930–2007) and by extending Douglas’s (1992) analyses of worldwide gauges by 25 years.
The extension of the Douglas (1992) data from 1905 to 1985 for 25 years to 2010 included the period from 1993 to 2010 when satellite altimeters recorded a sea-level trend greater than that of the 20th century, yet the addition of the 25 years resulted in a slightly greater deceleration.
Conclusion:
Our analyses do not indicate acceleration in sea level in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. Instead, for each time period we consider, the records show small decelerations that are consistent with a number of earlier studies of worldwide-gauge records. The decelerations that we obtain are opposite in sign and one to two orders of magnitude less than the +0.07 to +0.28 mm/y2 accelerations that are required to reach sea levels predicted for 2100 by Vermeer and Rahmsdorf (2009), Jevrejeva, Moore, and Grinsted (2010), and Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva (2010). Bindoff et al. (2007) note an increase in worldwide temperature from 1906 to 2005 of 0.74uC.
It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years, and indeed why global sea level has possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years.
Full paper available online here
WUWT download (faster) here: jcoastres-d-10-00157.1
h/t to John Droz and to Dr. Willem de Lange
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“It is essential that investigations continue…”
Send more money.
It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years, and indeed why global sea level has possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years.
Absolutely, because it might indicate that the temperature record is ‘inaccurate’ due to UHI effect, data adjustment, incorrectly read temperature or a flaw in the analysis, in this paper.
The truth will out, often from unexpected sources.
Even the IPCC kind of agrees.
The recent rate of sea level rise is faltering. ;O)
Even methane rise seems to be flattening.
This kind of research makes Rajendra Pachauri look like an even bigger fool.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/23/climate-craziness-of-the-week-ipccs-pachauri-claims-17cm-of-sea-level-rise-made-the-tsunami-worse/
I wonder if there is anything known as accountability in this business? IPCC sounds to me like a person who cried wolf too many times. Its credibility is totally shot. Why would sea levels rise alarmingly (as people have been claiming) if they have DECELERATED even as CO2 has increased?
I don’t have the time to research all these issues, but the questions being raised are just too many and these highly paid bureaucrats and “scientists” need to be held to account. Their screaming over the rooftops is costing the world an arm and a leg.
There’s a Journal of Coastal Research?
April 1 isn’t far away. Be careful!
They call us deniers but the reality is slowly dawning on them. Why do you think they ditched “Global Warming” and replaced it with “Climate Change.” Here are some frank admissions.
See the dates and add possible UHI effect and manipulations:
This is a slow motion trainwreck in the making. Judith Curry got out in time.
The photograph of the mean sea level in 1841 confirms this “bombshell”conclusion.
From the late John L. Daly’s website: “Still waiting for the Greenhouse”.
…and the latest sea level story from Australia, BOM offices to drown?…
Sea level rise in Broome? BoM’s feet stay dry so far | Digging in the Clay
diggingintheclay.wordpress.com“This link is to photos taken of this week’s apogee king tides in the area around the airport and shopping centre, showing the BOM new office building and radar tower just above the high tide of 10.6m. They are not obviously worried about sea levels rising,…
Now hang on. Weren’t we told that wind shear was a better thermometer than a thermometer? Surely that goes for tide gauges too?
On the subject of sea level, the University of Colorado sea level people have not updated the data on their site. The last data point is 2010.7415 which is in July last year, over seven months ago. Perhaps the data since then is inconvenient, or perhaps the Colorado people have just lost interest. Could someone else please get the Jason data and make it publicly available.
The conclusions from these researchers would indicate that the world’s temperature has not shown statistically-significant warming for the period the sudy encompasses.
Perhaps taking the temps of aircon plants and jet exhausts has skewed the global record. 🙂
http://www.diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/keeping-boms-dry-feet/#more-1621 link(I hope this works)
Cool, it’s NOT worse than we thought!
NICE!
Can someone define acceleration and deceleration for me?
I assume acceleration to be an increase in the rate of RISE and deceleration a lowering in the rate of RISE.
Both indicate a continuing RISE but the above research shows a diminishing rate. Am I correct in my understanding, please?
Investigate the temperature adjusters, UHI and AGW theory’s predictive skill.
The ice is melting at an unprecedented rate! /sarc
Bollocks!
Well I say, this is rather embarrassing what?
I say it’s just weather……
Antony,
I tend to try to read key studies but as a layman their strengths and weaknesses are not always as obvious to me. Will you comment more in depth on this study later ?
Having lived in the Portsmouth, Havant, Hayling Island and Emsworth areas in southern UK for almost 1/3rd of the timeframe documented, albeit a bit earlier, this analysis, pretty much, confirms my observations. There is nothing to worry about from sea level rise. Subsidence, on the other hand, due to natural and/or man-made influences, may be an issue in certain areas.
Good paper and downloaded and printed. Thanks Anthony.
These scientists will get no more money because their research throws the proverbial spanner into the AGW works.
A great paper by Engineers who know what they are doing. Unlike some of the pseudo-climate scientists they discuss outliers and errors.
It is another falsification of the models.
The pattern of accel/decel has been obvious from a single glance at the graphs for a long time. Still, it’s good to see a journal accepting it for publication…. means the reviewers are finally allowing a few scraps of actual truth into the journals.
Re: marchesarosa
Yes you are correct. Sea levels today are doing the same thing they have being doing for the last 20,000+ years and that is rising. The rate of rise is not increasing and this paper indicates (but not conclusively) that it might actually be decreasing.
This goes to show the value of an honest broker who is a scientist. I shudder to think of the time when the satellite record may pass to the charge of dishonest persons such as those that have ruined the credibility of climate science.
Re
marchesarosa says:
March 28, 2011 at 3:43 am
Can someone define acceleration and deceleration for me?
Yes, as you’ve assumed. Sea level continues to rise, but at a lesser rate.
As the Colorado data shows http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global_sm.jpg
A lesser rate of rise seen from about 2006 onwards.
If Greenland’s icecap and that of the Antarctic are melting at ever increasing rates, then one would expect to see sea level rate of rise increasing.