The Goreacle: Snowstorms caused by global warming

al-gore-office
Image by Handforged via Flickr Gotta love those power saving triple monitors!

Here Al Gore responds to Bill O’Reilly of Fox News on his blog:

An Answer for Bill February 1, 2011 : 11:43 AM

Last week on his show Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?” and then said he had a call into me. I appreciate the question.

As it turns out, the scientific community has been addressing this particular question for some time now and they say that increased heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting as a consequence of man-made global warming:

“In fact, scientists have been warning for at least two decades that global warming could make snowstorms more severe. Snow has two simple ingredients: cold and moisture. Warmer air collects moisture like a sponge until it hits a patch of cold air. When temperatures dip below freezing, a lot of moisture creates a lot of snow.”

“A rise in global temperature can create all sorts of havoc, ranging from hotter dry spells to colder winters, along with increasingly violent storms, flooding, forest fires and loss of endangered species.”

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Apparently, Gore has never noted that climate scientists once thought snowfall would disappear. But wait, there’s more.

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Apparently, Mr. Gore is unable to track the global monthly temperature either. There is no “global warming” this month.

Note to Al, the global temperature has been falling in December and January in concert with a strong La Niña.

When values are Negative: Cooling/La Niña | Positive: Warming/El Niño

Al, please note the pretty blue colors:

clickable global map of SST anomalies
Click to enlarge.

NOAA Aqua satellite TLT channel 5 shows us globally below normal at this point. I’ve helpfully added a big purple arrow to help Mr. Gore read the graph.

Dr. Roy Spencer takes him to task here. We’ll have the final January UAH global temperature anomaly in the next day or so. I hope Bill O’Reilly points it out to him on Fox.

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h/t to my local friend David Walton, who has been trying for two years now to get me a tip that I was not already on top of, proof that persistence pays off.

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99 Comments
John Q Public
February 1, 2011 6:45 pm

Anyone else here think that Gore has turned into a pudgy Don Knotts?
(Apologies to Don.)

Pamela Gray
February 1, 2011 6:50 pm

Re: the notion that AGW increases moisture. Nonsense. Natural sources are at work here. When the AO flips negative and the Pacific waxes female, the loopy jet stream reaches down into moisture naturally available near the Gulf of Mexico. It hauls that moisture up into the frigid temps coming down from the Arctic. The result is cold with lots of snow. These conditions have happened before, exactly in the same way. And when CO2 was less than it is now.

Don Shaw
February 1, 2011 6:55 pm

Unfortunately the warmists issued this report in 2009:
2009 Global Climate change impacts
US Global Change Research Program
Note below they said in 2009 report that there would be less precipitation falling as Snow in the North East and more as rain. How many more lies do Gore and others think they can get away with?
See below:
“Since 1970, the annual average temperature in the Northeast has
increased by 2°F, with winter temperatures rising twice this much.150
Warming has resulted in many other climate-related changes,
including:
More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F
• A longer growing season
• Increased heavy precipitation
• Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain
• Reduced snowpack
• Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers
• Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river flows
• Rising sea surface temperatures and sea level”
I am going broke this year getting snow removal in NJ and all kinds of snow records have been set!!!

JG
February 1, 2011 7:06 pm

(the Goreacle) These are not the climate events you are looking for.
(MSM) These are not the climate events we are looking for.
(The Goreacle) Move along now.
(MSM) Move along now.
No disrespect intended to Obi-Wan.

February 1, 2011 7:14 pm

CO2 levels track, but trail global warming, by 800 years. It’s driven from ocean waters by warmth. Colder waters absorb more of it. From 1940 to 1970 CO2 was rising even as cooling was happening. We find times (Medieval warming) when the earth was warmer than present, in pre industrial times. The significant element of the solar output that our climate tracks is the magnetic. More sun spots means we get warmer, fewer means we get colder. A recent Japanese climate study proved that the Maunder Minimum deep solar quiet caused the little ice age. It also proved the Svensmark theory, that weaker magnetic shielding by the sun means we get more clouds and precipitation. That’s the major player in the climate shift. The Earth is about to go colder for decades due to our current deep solar quiet.

Don Shaw
February 1, 2011 7:18 pm

Don’t forget what Barbara Boxer and other fools said a few years ago about snow etc,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d70iXVN5EVM&feature=player_embedded#

Amino Acids in Meteorites
February 1, 2011 7:55 pm

Washington politicians:
“….and having no snow is consistent with what the models will predict….”
3:17 video

Glenys
February 1, 2011 8:42 pm

The more I hear about Al Gore, the more I wonder if the evil (greedy) side of him is going mad. Any half-sane person would realize by now they are on a losing wicket and slink off to take their ‘earnings’ to use on an unrelated venture, hoping to turn this recent infamy back into more fame and fortune!

Dave Springer
February 1, 2011 9:13 pm

Climate science as practiced by AGW boffins is NOT science. It’s climate narrative.
Anyone claiming proficiency in science, and everyone with an undergraduate degree in science, must be familiar with Karl Popper and falsification:
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/popper_falsification.html

These considerations led me in the winter of 1919-20 to conclusions which I may now reformulate as follows.
1. It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations.
2. Confirmations should count only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is to say, if, unenlightened by the theory in question, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory.
3. Every “good” scientific theory is a prohibition: it forbids certain things to happen. The more a theory forbids, the better it is.
4. A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory (as people often think) but a vice.
5. Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or to refute it. Testability is falsifiability; but there are degrees of testability: some theories are more testable, more exposed to refutation, than others; they take, as it were, greater risks.
6. Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; and this means that it can be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory. (I now speak in such cases of “corroborating evidence.”)
7. Some genuinely testable theories, when found to be false, are still upheld by their admirers — for example by introducing ad hoc some auxiliary assumption, or by reinterpreting the theory ad hoc in such a way that it escapes refutation. Such a procedure is always possible, but it rescues the theory from refutation only at the price of destroying, or at least lowering, its scientific status. (I later described such a rescuing operation as a “conventionalist twist” or a “conventionalist stratagem.”)
One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.

johnb
February 1, 2011 9:22 pm

Saw this first over at Daily Caller. It’s good to see the cross post in an area where it can reach a different audience.

wobble
February 1, 2011 9:44 pm

Someday Al Gore will be sitting in his office, and he’ll realize that there is no global warming.
Then, he’ll turn to his scientists and say, “Why the hell did I ever listen to you guys?”

Robert Burns
February 1, 2011 9:58 pm

More politicians forecasting less snow due to global warming

ShrNfr
February 1, 2011 10:08 pm

OK Al baby, now please explain to us why the longest lasting and biggest cyclone exists on Jupiter. It is hardly warm out there. (300 years and counting). Al needs to stop believing in this stuff and take a course in Chod. One coming up in Bhutan in April.

giantsloar
February 1, 2011 10:54 pm

The scientist in the Independent article was referring only to snowfall in Britain, not worldwide.
As for the increased snowfall in the U.S., that doesn’t mean it’s getting colder, it means there’s more precipitation. Even if it were getting colder, you have to look at average annual global temperatures over many decades, not a brief, localized cold front.

JG
February 1, 2011 11:15 pm

I guess mother nature (gaia) was left of the distribution list from CRU.
She is obviously unaware that the snow belt is supposed to move further north, not south.

Jimbo
February 2, 2011 12:23 am

GORE:
“As it turns out, the scientific community has been addressing this particular question for some time now and they say that increased heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting…………..
In fact, scientists have been warning for at least two decades that global warming could make snowstorms more severe. “

June 4, 1999
“Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990604081638.htm
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/abs/399452a0.html
March 2000
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
“within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. ”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Nov. 17, 2010
“Global Warming Could Cool Down Northern Temperatures in Winter”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101117114028.htm
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568

What I want to know right now is does global warming cause less snow or more snow in the mid latitudes or not?

LazyTeenager
February 2, 2011 12:39 am

Al, please note the pretty blue colors:
———
So what direction are the moisture bearing winds across the USA?
From the Pacific or the Atlantic!
There is colder than average water around California but it is average around the more northern seaboard.
For the Atlantic there is a strip of above average temps at the top of the map.
It would be of interest to show a map with the tracks of moist air parcels shown.
I did go looking for synoptic maps over time for the USA but came up empty. It looks like USA weather reporting has been dumbed down.

David
February 2, 2011 2:18 am

Craig Moore (February 1, 2.57 p.m.) has a link to a symposium at which Al Gore is to speak.
I note from the Agenda that his speech is scheduled for 5.00 p.m. – after a packed programme of Really Interesting Stuff. By that time, if my experience is anything to go by, everyone will either be asleep or obsessed with the thought: ‘How much longer before I can get a drink..?’

the_Butcher
February 2, 2011 2:56 am

ShrNfr says:
February 1, 2011 at 10:08 pm
=======================
Al Gore believes nothing from what he says to the sheep, he’s probably wishing for some victims now with the cyclone in Australia, just so he can get his propaganda going on forever.

wayne Job
February 2, 2011 3:40 am

As a non scientist looking at these supposed climate scientists, promoting doom and gloom one can only say.
They may gain some respect when they look at the big picture, firstly on a very regular basis, sinususoidal so to speak occur ice ages and interglacials. These are big and have a cause, find it and prove it.
Next the interglacials and ice ages have large swings in temperature and climate, big enough to have a major cause, find it and prove it.
This would allow even myself to start calling them scientists. Then perhaps one could believe that maybe they know what they are talking about. Until that happens they have the same credibility as a Quack Dr , a snake oil salesman or a common carpet bagger.
This Gore fellow in days of yore would have been put in stocks and given some humble pie, or in the wild west tarred and feathered.

UK John
February 2, 2011 4:15 am

Good old Al, the world’s getting warmer so more moisture, its a simple physics fact that warm air contains more moisture, according to Al and many others of his fellow travellers.
So the Sahara Desert will soon bloom, and be fertile, as I understand the air is very hot in the Sahara so it must contain lots of moisture, so the desert drought is over?

Steve Keohane
February 2, 2011 6:54 am

Craig Moore says: February 1, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Severe weather permitting, Al Gore is scheduled to be the keynote speaker at this global warming conference: http://www.fortheforest.org/page_77

This was in the Aspen paper yesterday. It not only sold out immediately, 400 seats, but they then offered and again sold out another 400 standing-room-only tickets, then added a video feed to an auditorium. It is disappointing that people will pay to listen to this idiot.
R. Gates says: February 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm
the greater rates of accumulation of snow occur during warmer periods in earth’s history

When it is warm it rains when it is cold it snows. Get enough snow and you get glaciers. Glaciers don’t come from rain.
LazyTeenager says: February 2, 2011 at 12:39 am
Al, please note the pretty blue colors:
———
So what direction are the moisture bearing winds across the USA?
From the Pacific or the Atlantic!
There is colder than average water around California but it is average around the more northern seaboard.

If you were not being lazy you would have seen that the moisture for this storm came off the southern Baja and the Gulf of Mexico, both below normal.

R. Gates
February 2, 2011 6:58 am

Just a general comment about snow accumulation and warmer temps:
Over a hundred thousands years of ice core history tells the story quite clearly– when it gets warmer, snow accumulates faster. The coldest periods, i.e. glacial advances, were the periods of lowest actual accumulation of snow. There is not one expert who would dispute this fact. Now, we are definitely not in a glacial period right now, nor anything close. This could change very quickly however, and the ice core record clearly shows that as well. If it does change, expect the accumulation of snow to decrease over a period of time with colder winters and colder summers. During the Maunder minimum for example, the ice cores show that the rates of accumulation of snow (at least in the Greenland ice cores) decreased, even though the winters and summers were colder.

Laurie Bowen
February 2, 2011 7:46 am

I have a question for the Scientists . . . . What will the next “Grand Delusion” be?
What statistical measure can we use to detect it BEFORE it becomes “fully blown”
AND . . .
I just wanted to remind those of the Emergency Services area that since we have had a record amount of SNOW in recent days we can ANTICIPATE a record amount of water once the temperature rises.
I hope that this message can get to the people needed so that the necessary provisions can be made to ACCOMMODATE Mother Nature! Like where, the flooding is to be anticipated, how much and warning to those in the projected areas.

Editor
February 2, 2011 7:52 am

R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 6:58 am
“Just a general comment about snow accumulation and warmer temps:
Over a hundred thousands years of ice core history tells the story quite clearly– when it gets warmer, snow accumulates faster. The coldest periods, i.e. glacial advances, were the periods of lowest actual accumulation of snow. There is not one expert who would dispute this fact. Now, we are definitely not in a glacial period right now, nor anything close. This could change very quickly however, and the ice core record clearly shows that as well. If it does change, expect the accumulation of snow to decrease over a period of time with colder winters and colder summers. During the Maunder minimum for example, the ice cores show that the rates of accumulation of snow (at least in the Greenland ice cores) decreased, even though the winters and summers were colder.”
But the reason that “southern New York turned into the tundra?” is because January temps were significantly colder than our short historical record. Does the 25% of you that’s skeptical agree with this fact? Or are you just going to continue playing obfuscation games like Al?